Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean StrengthThe EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March.Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years.Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest.🌽 Corn Market PressureCorn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets.🌾 Wheat Faces Global HeadwindsChicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market.🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean FlowsU.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year.The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows.📦 Export Inspections UpdateU.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor.🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil StocksNOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes.Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035)USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment.🚜 The Future of US Farms & RanchesA major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets.📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of TradersMoney managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting ProgressBrazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics.🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand SignalsDiplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes.🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas PullbackNatural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean Market RallySoybeans moved sharply higher following a South China Morning Post report hinting that the US–China trade truce could be extended when Trump and Xi meet in April. President Trump recently suggested China may boost US soybean purchases to 20mmt, but skepticism remains as Brazilian beans continue to dominate global offers at a discount.🌽 Export Sales BreakdownCorn export sales were a clear bright spot, easily beating expectations with Japan leading the charge. Soybean sales, however, slipped to a marketing-year low despite China showing up as the largest buyer. Wheat sales posted modest improvement. What does this mixed demand picture mean going forward?🌎 South America Weather & ProductionArgentina’s crops are still in a weather-critical window, with dryness raising concern about yield potential. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to stack record production, with Conab raising its soybean estimate again. Harvest is advancing — and global supply pressure is building.🥩 Beef Industry DevelopmentsCargill is closing its Milwaukee processing facility, adding to the growing list of plant slowdowns and shutdowns. With the US cattle herd near historic lows, the livestock sector faces tightening dynamics that could reshape margins and price behavior.☀️ Drought Monitor UpdateLarge portions of the Corn Belt saw limited precipitation, while drought conditions worsened in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. We review what this means as the growing season approaches.🚢 Flash Sale to EgyptUSDA reported new soybean business to Egypt. How significant is this sale in the broader demand landscape?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌏 Global Market DevelopmentsChinese media hinted that the U.S.–China trade truce may be extended, while officials confirmed discussions around a potential presidential visit. Optimism surrounding trade stability helped support soybean prices overnight, with futures probing fresh multi-month highs.🚢 Demand & Trade FlowsChina’s appetite for U.S. sorghum continues to generate buzz. Reports suggest strong buying interest tied to tight domestic feed supplies and lingering quality issues in China’s corn crop. Notably, China has still shown little interest in U.S. corn, keeping alternative grains in focus.⛽ Biofuels & Energy MarketsMarine fuel demand is gaining attention as a potential growth engine for biofuels. With global shipping facing mounting emissions pressure, renewable diesel and ethanol are increasingly part of the debate. Industry participants continue to question how easily existing engines could adapt.🏛 Policy & Regulatory WatchCorn grower groups are pressing the Department of Justice for clarity on its fertilizer industry investigation. Producers argue that input costs and market concentration remain critical issues ahead of the next planting season.📦 Supply, Production & MarginsEthanol production rebounded last week while margins improved across key regions. Stocks also moved higher, reflecting shifting operating conditions and steady blending demand.🌽 Export ActivityUSDA announced another flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, reinforcing the strong pace of export commitments and ongoing demand beneath the market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 SoybeansSoybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt.🌽 CornUSDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market.🌾 WheatWheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady.🏛️ US–China DevelopmentsUS Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases.🏗️ US Grain Storage CapacityThe University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks.🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest RatesBrazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness.🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot ExpansionBrazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Grain MarketsChina returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11.Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target.President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt.🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu)⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last yearSoybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu)⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last yearChina accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes. Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu)⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year📊 USDA PreviewThe USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST.Expectations:U.S. corn ending stocks: unchangedU.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lowerU.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lowerWorld stocks: mostly unchangedBrazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher🛢️ Soybean Oil & CrushSoybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil.India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside. 🚜 Farm EconomyFarm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases.The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🥩 Cattle & BeefPresident Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices.• Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef• A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures• Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time• Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again🌱 SoybeansSoybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday.• The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December• The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt• Traders remain skeptical China will follow through• Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market🌽 Corn & 🌾 WheatCorn and wheat futures ended the session lower.• No fresh bullish catalysts• Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments🇺🇸🇨🇳 GeopoliticsTrump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk.• The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan• This follows an $11B package approved in December• China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations• Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate🇮🇳 India TradeIndia is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products.• Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS• India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy• Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & CropBrazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast.• ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year• Yields remain strong across most regions• StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop• Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days📊 CFTC & FundsThe latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated.• Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window• Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly• Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans⛽ Ethanol & E15The push for year-round E15 sales continues.• E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales• Usage is growing roughly 45% annually• Draft legislation expected by mid-February• Political divisions could slow progress

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans Lead the RallySoybean futures pushed higher again Thursday, building on momentum from President Trump’s comments suggesting China could increase U.S. soybean purchases this season. While some traders are buying into the optimism, others remain skeptical that verbal commitments will turn into real demand—especially during Brazil’s peak export window. Corn and wheat futures also finished the session higher.💰 USDA: Farm Profits Jump on Government PaymentsUSDA’s Economic Research Service says farm income rebounded last year, largely due to a sharp increase in direct government payments. Looking ahead, USDA expects farm income to level off somewhat, with payments remaining elevated relative to recent years.⚖️ Fertilizer Prices Under DOJ ScrutinyThe Iowa Corn Growers Association is pressing the Department of Justice for updates on its investigation into fertilizer pricing. The group says high input costs are adding to financial stress across farm country and wants clarity on whether consolidation in the fertilizer industry is limiting competition.🚢 Export Sales Remain SoftWeekly export sales were underwhelming across the board. Corn sales declined again, soybean sales hit a marketing-year low, and wheat sales came in near the bottom of expectations. While China was the top soybean buyer for the week, overall demand remains sluggish.🌧️ Drought Still a ConcernCold temperatures limited drought improvement despite some recent precipitation. Frozen soils and low Mississippi River levels continue to restrict barge traffic, while drought conditions across the High Plains remain largely unchanged.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China & US SoybeansChina is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures.That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window.China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains:➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season?➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions?Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic. 🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns GrowFormer US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.”They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year.While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses.🌽 Ethanol Production SlumpsUS ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels.Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs. 🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm ThreatTexas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources.Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices. 🌾 Corn Flash SaleUSDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New GuidanceThe US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays.Key takeaways from the proposal:Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or CanadaThe 45Z credit is extended through 2029The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removedA 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayedIt is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.)This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestrationIn most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not bothNon-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallonOnly a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposedThere is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are sharedTreasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices🚜 US Farmer Sentiment SlidesFarmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed:A steep decline in current conditions and future expectationsNearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next yearLong-term pessimism rose meaningfullyConcerns about US agricultural exports increasedThis highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves.🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production OutlookBrazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as-Ethanol prices improveSugar prices weakenNew corn ethanol plants come onlineA large sugarcane crop boosts outputStoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production.🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food SecurityChina unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes:Higher grain and oilseed productionDiversified agricultural importsReduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and CanadaExpanded sourcing from South America and the Global SouthNew quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairyIncreased investment in agricultural innovation₿ Bitcoin UpdateBitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by:Liquidations of leveraged positionsWeak sentiment in crypto derivativesBroader financial market volatilityDespite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade DealThe Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil.India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy.🌽 Grain MarketsGrain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel.Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region.🚢 Export InspectionsUS corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year.Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments.Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year. 🥩 Tyson FoodsTyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027.In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability. 🇧🇷 Brazil SoybeansBrazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million. 🚜 Farm Aid TalksLawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions.She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG🌽🌱 Grain Futures RecapGrain futures finished lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar.March corn slipped by nearly 3 cents to $4.28March soybeans dropped 8 cents to $10.64Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago March wheat down about 4 cents to $5.38Markets also continue to price in strong Brazilian crop expectations, while traders assessed the impact of severe cold across the US Plains earlier this week and frigid temperatures in Ukraine.👉 See grain charts below🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Historic VolatilityPrecious metals suffered historic one-day losses on Friday.Gold futures fell sharplySilver posted its worst daily decline since 1980The selloff followed President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which eased concerns about central bank independence and sent the US dollar sharply higher.Longer term, metals may still find support from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, but Friday was a major reset.👉 See gold, silver, and Dollar Index charts below🏛️ Federal Reserve UpdatePresident Trump officially selected Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.Warsh has historically been a policy hawkRecently shifted toward supporting lower ratesViewed by markets as more inflation-focused than other rumored picksOne analyst summed it up:“Because Warsh has been a policy hawk his entire life, his newfound dovishness looks very suspect.”👉 See Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index charts below📊 CFTC Commitment of TradersThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly COT report.For the week ending January 27, funds were net buyers across major ag markets:CornSoybeansSRW wheat👉 See Fund Tracker charts below🚜 Farmer Assistance UpdateAdditional farmer aid remains under discussion in Washington.According to John Boozman, the proposed $15B package was excluded from the current spending billAid could still move forward as a standalone bill or disaster relief add-onThe $11B Farmer Bridge Assistance program is still scheduled to be distributed by February 28🐄 Cattle Inventory: Historically TightThe USDA cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest US herd since 1951.Total herd: 86.2 million headBeef cow numbers declined againSlight uptick in replacement heifers, but not enough to signal real expansionBottom line: structurally bullish for the cattle market with no clear signs of herd rebuilding.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🥈 Precious Metals VolatilitySilver futures were slammed this morning, with the nearby March contract down sharply in early trade. Gold also moved lower. Some traders are pointing to speculation around an imminent Trump pick for the next Fed Chair as a possible catalyst. Regardless of the reason, the size and speed of the move has grabbed everyone’s attention.🎰 Prediction Markets & CME’s Next MoveThe CFTC says it plans to update prediction-market rules, aiming to provide more regulatory clarity while supporting “lawful innovation.” Chairman Michael Selig confirmed the agency will withdraw a prior proposal that would have banned sports- and political-related contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi continue to grow rapidly, and CME is now partnering with FanDuel in the prediction-market space. With CME already planning 24/7 crypto derivatives trading, some believe this is a stepping stone toward round-the-clock trading in traditional commodity markets—an effort to avoid losing market share to online betting platforms. 🎲❄️ Ukraine Cold Threat & Wheat SupportExtremely cold temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine early next week, with readings potentially plunging well below zero. A large share of the country’s winter wheat crop currently lacks protective snow cover, raising winterkill concerns. These risks helped support wheat futures as traders also assessed lingering impacts from last week’s U.S. winter storm.🌱 Soybeans Ease on Brazil SupplySoybean futures softened as Brazil’s harvest ramps up and expectations build for a record-large crop. After completing initial U.S. purchases, China is expected to shift more demand toward Brazilian supplies. A weak U.S. dollar, however, continues to provide underlying support by improving export competitiveness.🚢 Weekly Export SalesU.S. corn export sales slowed from last week’s near-record pace, while soybean sales also declined. Wheat sales came in near the upper end of expectations. Japan was the top buyer for corn and wheat, while China led soybean purchases.🛢️ Oil Rallies on Middle East RiskCrude oil prices surged amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Markets are reacting to fears of supply disruptions, particularly the risk of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint.🌧️ US Drought UpdateUSDA’s latest drought monitor showed limited improvement across much of the Corn Belt due to frozen ground conditions, though some areas did see relief. Drought conditions worsened in parts of the High Plains.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back!Grain futures finished higher Wednesday as a weaker US dollar, biofuel headlines, and weather concerns provided support across ag and macro markets. Here’s what moved markets today 👇🌽 Grain MarketsCorn and soybeans ended the session modestly higher, supported by a sharply weaker US dollar, which improves US export competitiveness.President Trump said Congress is close to approving year-round E15, and that new biofuel guidelines are nearing completion—adding support to corn demand expectations.Wheat also closed higher as traders continue to assess potential crop impacts from the recent winter storm.In my view, developing dryness and a hot/dry forecast in Argentina likely played a role in row crop strength as well. See the map from our friends at CropProphet below.🌾 Ethanol UpdateUS ethanol production declined modestly last week, though output remains higher than the same week last year.Ethanol stocks also fell week over week and year over year.According to Reuters data, ethanol margins weakened across the Corn Belt and are currently negative to breakeven, reflecting softer profitability.Margins improved slightly following Monday’s corn selloff.🐄 Livestock & Animal HealthThe NCBA warned that it is likely only a matter of time before New World screwworm reaches the US.NCBA President Buck Wehrbein said the pest is more likely to enter via wildlife than cattle imports and emphasized that the US successfully eradicated screwworm in the 1960s.Recent rumors of screwworm already reaching the US triggered sharp selling in live and feeder cattle futures last week.🥇 Precious Metals & MarginsCME Group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures following the historic rally in gold and silver.Higher margins mean traders will need more capital to hold positions, potentially limiting participation by smaller traders.Silver and gold both hit record highs before settling lower on the day.For perspective: silver at ~$117/oz is roughly equivalent to trading $117 corn or soybeans, with a contract value near $585,000.🏦 Federal ReserveThe Fed held interest rates steady, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut.Inflation remains above target, while labor markets show signs of stabilization.Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, after which President Trump will appoint a new Fed chair.Futures markets are pricing in limited rate cuts this year and none in 2027.👉 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re watching in grains, livestock, or macro.Staying informed matters—especially in markets like these.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back to the channel!In today’s update, we cover Trump’s comments on year-round E15, growing weakness in the U.S. dollar, 2026 acreage debates, heat stress in Argentina, fresh USDA flash sales, and China’s latest soybean buying behavior.⛽🇺🇸 E15, Trump & The FedPresident Trump visited Iowa and said Congress is very close to approving year-round E15 salesComments come after the White House failed to include E15 language in the current funding bill. Trump declared the U.S. is entering a “golden age.”He said a new Fed Chair announcement is coming soon and predicted significantly lower interest rates. 💵📉 U.S. Dollar BreakdownThe dollar hit its weakest level in nearly four years. Pressure is coming from policy uncertainty, fiscal risks, and political polarization. Euro, yen, and Swiss franc are at multi-year highs. Emerging-market currencies are trading at record levels. Investors are paying record premiums to hedge against further dollar weakness. 🌽🌱 2026 Acreage DebateS&P Global estimates corn acreage at 95 million and soybeans at 84.5 million. Higher corn input costs and crop rotation favor soybean. China’s renewed soybean purchases add support to bean acres. NCGA projects an $180/acre loss for corn. Pro Farmer notes fertilizer already applied and historical trends could keep corn acres elevated. Crop insurance guarantees in February will be key. 🔥🇦🇷 Argentina Weather StressTemps nearing 104°F across major growing regions. Limited rain until February raises yield risks. USDA estimates: 53 mmt corn, 48.5 mmt soybeans. Planting nearly complete, but pasture conditions are deteriorating. Meal markets remain quiet; bean oil strong amid biofuel sentiment. 🚢📊 USDA Flash Sales110,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations (2025/26)306,000 mt of sorghum sold to unknown destinations (2025/26)First U.S. sorghum flash sale since August 2024. 🇨🇳🌎 China Soybean BuyingChina booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for Mar–Apr shipment. Brazil holds a strong price advantage over U.S. beans. China has now fulfilled its ~12 mmt U.S. purchase commitment. Recent U.S. buying appears obligation-driven, not structural. With large South American crops expected, China likely avoids U.S. beans until new crop this fall.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🧪 Fertilizer Market & USDA ActionThe USDA is taking a closer look at potential collusion in the fertilizer industry. Last week, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden accused fertilizer giants Nutrien and Mosaic of working to limit supply and keep prices elevated. The two companies accounted for more than 90% of North American phosphate fertilizer and potash production last year.A proposed new potash mine in Saskatchewan could weaken their market control and add supply to the U.S. market as early as next year. USDA officials say they are closely monitoring fertilizer markets and could take action to boost competition if needed.Vaden also took aim at farm equipment manufacturers, backing the administration’s push for right-to-repair protections for farmers.🌽 Biofuels Policy & 45Z Tax CreditClean Fuels Alliance America is urging the Trump administration to release the proposed 45Z tax credit rules. The request comes after the White House completed its review of the rule.According to the biofuels group, clearer guidance is needed to reduce uncertainty and support biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production. They warned that continued delays could jeopardize investments, production, and rural jobs, while final rules could boost commodity demand and rural economic activity.President Trump is scheduled to speak today in Clive, Iowa, where energy and economic issues are expected to be front and center. While there’s some chatter about a possible biofuel announcement, nothing is confirmed.🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybean MarketsWheat futures moved lower on Monday. The CBOT March contract fell to around $5.23 after earlier touching the highest level since mid-December.Cold weather in the High Plains raised concerns over crop damage, but snowfall helped insulate much of the wheat belt. Some damage was reported in parts of Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas.🚢 Export InspectionsU.S. corn shipments were strong last week. USDA reported 1.5 million metric tons of corn inspected for export, higher than both the previous week and last year.Soybean inspections totaled 1.3 million metric tons, slightly lower week-to-week but sharply higher year-over-year, with China accounting for the majority of shipments.Wheat inspections were weaker, trailing both last week and last year.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop UpdateAgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop again, now calling for a record harvest. Corn production estimates were also nudged higher.Soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting are both running ahead of last year’s pace, while first-crop corn harvest is slightly behind. Rainfall has been mostly average, though southern areas remain somewhat dry.Based on current estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop would be substantially larger than the U.S. crop. 🔥 Natural Gas & Winter Storm ImpactNatural gas prices surged to their highest level in years as Winter Storm Fern swept across the U.S., driving up heating demand.The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and disrupted roughly 10% of U.S. natural gas production. In response, the Department of Energy issued emergency orders aimed at stabilizing power grids and reducing blackout risks in New England and Texas.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ Government Shutdown RiskThe risk of a partial government shutdown is rising as the Senate prepares to vote later this week on a House-passed $1.2 trillion funding package. Following another fatal shooting involving federal immigration agents in Minnesota, Democratic lawmakers are threatening to oppose the bill due to DHS and ICE funding concerns. Democrats argue the package lacks reforms to rein in ICE.While funding for many other agencies is included, there may still be enough Democratic support to avoid a shutdown. The last shutdown lasted 43 days and delayed key USDA and CFTC reports. Polymarket odds of a shutdown jumped sharply over the weekend. There is growing concern that previously approved FBA payments, currently slated for late February, could be delayed if a shutdown occurs.❄️ Winter Storm & Cold ImpactsThis weekend’s winter storm delivered widespread snow and extreme cold across the Plains. Parts of HRW wheat country in the Southern Plains received beneficial snowfall, reducing winterkill risk. However, below-zero temperatures combined with snow created severe cold stress for livestock, limiting weight gains and increasing risks for producers in calving season.Wind chills in the Northern Plains plunged to extreme levels, while portions of Texas and Oklahoma face record lows with freezing temperatures expected to persist. Single-digit temperatures may linger another day or two in HRW wheat areas, while SRW wheat country in the Midwest remains locked in frigid conditions this week.🌽 Grain MarketsCorn futures advanced on Friday, led by strong export demand. The most active March contract settled higher, supported by near-record export sales and competitive U.S. prices on the global market. Growing concern over dry conditions in parts of South America has added uncertainty around crop potential. Soybean and wheat futures also posted gains.⛽ E15 Left Out (Again)Farm groups and ethanol advocates are pushing back after Congress once again omitted year-round E15 sales from the funding package. Instead, lawmakers plan to form an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to study the issue.🚢 Export SalesU.S. export sales were impressive last week:Corn sales set a marketing-year high, far exceeding expectations, with unknown destinations as the top buyer. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year high, with China leading purchases. Wheat sales surpassed expectations, with unknown destinations again the largest buyer. Overall, export demand remains a major source of support for the grain markets.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningIn the latest Commitment of Traders report, large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The net short position in corn is now the largest since late October, reflecting continued bearish positioning despite recent market strength.🐄 Cattle on FeedFriday’s Cattle on Feed report came in largely neutral. Cattle on feed were below last year but slightly above expectations. Placements and marketings were both near or above pre-report estimates.Notably, heifers made up a large share of cattle on feed, signaling that many are still being fed rather than retained for herd rebuilding—an important long-term signal for the cattle market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Farm Aid & Policy UpdateAdditional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out.With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation.Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown.It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales.Major Winter Storm RiskA major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch.Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible. Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern.US–China Trade WatchUS and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security.China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes.Europe, Greenland & TariffsPresident Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum.He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover.Grain Market RecapSoybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65.Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans.Global Protein TradeChina has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry.Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions.India & Wheat ExportsIndia has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies.India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China & U.S. SoybeansChina has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott BessentShipments are expected to move by MayFocus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three yearsDespite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demandOngoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage📌 Important context:USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so farRoughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house businessEven at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing yearThat’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week📉 Grain MarketsSoybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53Pressure came from:Rising geopolitical tensions over GreenlandExpectations for a record Brazilian soybean cropCorn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24🚜 Farm Economy Reality CheckFarmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costsNew York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to:Fallow unprofitable acresImprove marginal landShift some acres from soybeans to cornHis takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal—reassessment is no longer optional🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA)Corn: Strong print, beating expectationsSoybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volumeWheat: Also near the high end of expectationsYTD snapshot:Soybean shipments: well below last yearCorn shipments: well ahead of last yearChina-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf🌱 Flash SaleUSDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year🌍 Macro & MarketsJapan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auctionLong-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit marketsS&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since OctoberA weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag₿ Bitcoin WatchStrategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again:Massive recent Bitcoin purchasesNow the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globallyStrategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuanceCEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 Farm Aid & Government FundingSenate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed).The proposal includes:Additional bridge paymentsSupport for specialty crop producersHigher farm ownership and operating loan limitsAid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed pricesLawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislationFarmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28A possible government shutdown on January 30 could:Delay FBA paymentsDelay any new farm aid packageThe House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved🌍 Global Trade & GeopoliticsPresident Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland10% tariffs begin February 1Increase to 25% on June 1Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase GreenlandThe EU is weighing retaliatory trade measuresTrump also said he would consider using force if negotiations failMarket reaction:S&P 500 futures down 1.8%European and UK equities sharply lowerUS dollar weaker against major currencies🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade DealChina will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1Tariffs also reduced on:LobstersCrabsPeasCanada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVsChina has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since OctoberCanada continues diversifying trade away from the US🌱 South American Crop UpdateBrazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule2% harvested as of last Thursdayvs. 1.7% at the same time last yearRainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areasWorld Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)Large speculators were heavy sellers last week:Corn: Net sellers of 78k contractsNet short now 91k (largest since late October)Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contractsNet short 20k (largest since mid-October)Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts🚢 Export ActivityUSDA reported multiple corn flash sales:298k mt to unknown destinations120k mt to JapanBoth sales are for the 2025/26 marketing yearAccumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year🐄 Cattle Market ShockLive and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concernsTexas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US borderThe pest is expected to eventually reach the USMarket reaction:Live cattle down as much as $4.45Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Farm Economy Under PressureHeadlines this week focused squarely on the deteriorating US farm economy. The Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the challenges facing US soybean farmers, including high input costs, weak commodity prices, rising competition from Brazil, and sluggish export demand. The piece also referenced USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, noting that while helpful in the short term, it does not address deeper structural issues.Reuters published similar coverage, emphasizing tighter bank lending standards, increasing financial stress, and a rise in farm bankruptcies. Together, the articles underscore mounting pressure on farmers and the broader ripple effects across rural America. Soybean Oil & BiofuelsSoybean oil futures surged on Thursday, gaining as much as 3.8% on expectations that the Trump administration will finalize US biofuel-blending quotas by March. Last June, the EPA proposed a sizable increase in biomass-based diesel targets, which would significantly boost soybean oil demand. There is optimism that stronger biofuel demand could help offset weak soybean export performance.NOPA Crush UpdateThe National Oilseed Processors Association released its December crush report, showing US soybean crush at its second-highest level on record. NOPA members processed 224.99 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly above trade expectations.For full-year 2025, crush totaled nearly 2.4 billion bushels—an 8% increase from 2024. End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose to 1.64 billion pounds, the highest level since May 2024, up sharply from both last month and last year, though just below average trade estimates.Brazil Soybean CropBrazil’s soybean crop is shaping up to be record large. Agroconsult raised its estimate to 182.2 mmt, citing strong field conditions and limited widespread issues. Meanwhile, Conab trimmed its estimate slightly to 176.1 mmt due to marginally lower yield expectations. Even so, the crop remains record large and would exceed last season’s production. Export SalesUS corn export sales impressed last week, with net sales of 1.1 mmt. While down from the prior four-week average, the number was a strong rebound from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer.Soybean sales exceeded expectations at 2.1 mmt, up sharply week-over-week and well above the recent average. China was the largest buyer. Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations at 156,300 mt, with unknown destinations leading purchases.USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:Soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 deliveryAdditional soybean sales for 2026/27 deliveryCorn sales to Japan and unknown destinations for 2025/26 deliveryDrought Monitor UpdateUSDA’s latest drought data showed mixed but generally improving conditions across parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains. Above-normal precipitation helped reduce drought intensity in portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, while conditions worsened slightly in southern Missouri.US Areas Experiencing DroughtCorn: 28%Soybeans: 34%Winter Wheat: 41%Spring Wheat: 10%Cattle: 34%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Argentina Corn Crop UpdateArgentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas.For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt.📈 Corn & Soybean FuturesCorn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels.March corn settled near $4.22March soybeans closed around $10.43The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report.🔥 US Ethanol ProductionUS ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels.According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures.🇨🇳 China Soybean ImportsChina imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty.China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement.🚢 USDA Flash SalesThe USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea334,000 mt of soybeans sold to ChinaBoth were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.🥈 Silver & Gold Hit RecordsSilver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago.Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Ethanol & E15 PushThe Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum.The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes.Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term:Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offsConsumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy itProduction capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacityAn E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars.🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCAPresident Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1.Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below.🥩 Beef Prices Hit New RecordsGround beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%.Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below.🌱 Soybean Flash SalesUSDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday:168,000 mt to China152,404 mt to MexicoBoth are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.📊 Inflation UpdateThe December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022.Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below.🌎 Largest US LandownerThe owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres.Other top landowners include:Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acresJohn Malone: ~2.2 million acresTed Turner: ~2.0 million acresJeff Bezos: ~462,000 acresBill Gates: ~275,000 acres

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 CornCorn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA.The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise.USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record.🌾 Winter WheatUS winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million.Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California.Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over yearSoft red winter wheat: modest increaseWhite winter wheat: sharp decline🚜 Farm Policy & AidThe American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses.Duvall is urging:Expanded trade opportunitiesLabor reformYear-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costsFarm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs.🚢 Exports & DemandUS soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total.Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectationsWheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over weekUSDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn:204,000 mt to South Korea310,000 mt to unknown destinationsBoth for 2025/26 delivery.🏛️ Macro & MarketsRepublican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets.Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly• Corn exports are forecast at record highs• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged🇨🇳 China Buys More US SoybeansChina purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf• The remainder will ship from the PNW• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last weekDespite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.🚢 USDA Flash Sale UpdateUSDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest BeginsBrazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year• Warm, dry weather is expected to persistBoth Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningFor the week ending January 6:• Funds were net buyers of corn• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)• Net sellers of SRW wheat💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate CapPresident Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated.📉 2026 Corn Price OutlookAmple global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production.🚢 Weekly Export SalesU.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year.Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales.Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer.🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm UpdateNew World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs.🌱 China Soybean Flash SaleUSDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement.🌡️ Drought Monitor UpdateUSDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Grain MarketsSoybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher.🥩 New U.S. Dietary GuidelinesUpdated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy.🌽 Ethanol UpdateU.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices.🏠 Housing & Interest RatesMortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability.🏘️ Institutional Home Buying DebatePresident Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn DemandThe Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage. 🌱 China Buys U.S. SoybeansUSDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter. 🚢 Brazil Export UpdateBrazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season. 🚜 Farmer Sentiment SlipsU.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced. 📈 Stocks, Oil & VenezuelaU.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 Geopolitics & OilThe U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)Panama / Noriega (1989)🚢 Export InspectionsUSDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.Soybeans: 980,518 mtUp from the prior weekDown vs. last yearChina accounted for roughly 40%Corn: 1.2 mmtLower vs. last weekStrongly higher vs. last yearWheat: 183,305 mtBelow expectationsSharply lower week-over-week and year-over-yearMarketing-year-to-date shipments:Soybeans: sharply behind last yearCorn: well aheadWheat: modestly higher📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyerCorn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by MexicoWheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination🌱 Brazil Crop UpdateStoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.Conab: 177.6 mmtUSDA: 175 mmtBased on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.💰 Fund PositioningThe CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.Funds continued selling corn and soybeansSoybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-NovemberSmall net buying was seen in SRW wheat🥇 Metals & MacroGold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Geopolitics & EnergyThe US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan.The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward.Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop.🚜 Farm Aid UpdateUSDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar.Payment rates:Corn: $44.36 per acreSoybeans: $30.88 per acreWheat: $39.35 per acrePayments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links.🌱 Grain Markets & WeatherSoybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months.Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week. 🐄 LivestockMexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site.The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active. ⛽ EthanolUS ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels.According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon. 🚢 Export SalesUSDA released another delayed export sales report:Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the totalCorn sales exceeded expectations, led by MexicoWheat sales came in near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy UpdateChina is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027.China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge. 📉 Grain & Oilseed Market RecapSoybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest. 🌧️ South American Weather UpdateBrazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary.Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer.🌾 Argentina Crop UpdateArgentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans. 🚢 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday:• 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery• 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March.👉 Subscribe for daily grain market updates💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean Export InspectionsUS soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year.🌽 Corn & Wheat ShipmentsCorn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace.🚢 Flash Sale & Export SalesUSDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns.🌎 China Shifts Away from US AgChina continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve.📉 Grain Futures SlideCorn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red.🥩 Beef Market OutlookBeef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter.🪙 Silver Takes a HitSilver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🪙 Precious MetalsSilver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.💵 US Dollar & Interest RatesThe US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.See charts below.🌧️ South American WeatherDry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.🌽 Grain MarketsCorn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.🌍 GeopoliticsPresident Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚁 Drone Industry ShockA new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior weekChina was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total salesCorn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmtJapan was the largest buyerWheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchasesOfficial U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.🌱 Grain Market UpdateSoybean futures edged lower Tuesday.The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.🇺🇸 U.S. Economy UpdateThe U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.🥇 Precious Metals ExplosionPrecious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.Silver surged past $70/ozGold climbed above $4,490/ozPlatinum and palladium also moved sharply higherThe rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data QualityThe US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.🚢 Weekly Export InspectionsUS soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop OutlookAgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea TensionsWheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export SalesUSDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.💰 Gold & Macro MarketsGold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments.🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 USDA Farm Aid UpdateThe USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells FarmlandTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.🌽 Brazil Corn Crop TrimmedSafras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in NovemberChina imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.🚨 USDA Flash SaleU.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.For the week ending December 9:Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed ReportAs of December 1:Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.🏭 More Packing Plant Closures PossibleTight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.🥩 Beef PricesBeef prices remain near record highs.Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.🌱 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.📦 Export Sales ReportCorn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.📉 Inflation UpdateCPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.🌧️ Drought MonitorScattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.US Areas Experiencing DroughtCorn: 32%Soybeans: 33%Winter Wheat: 36%Spring Wheat: 16%Cattle: 27%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.📊 USDA Flash Sales RecapUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 deliveryAdditional soybeans sold to unknown destinationsCorn sold to MexicoA cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in NovemberThis mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the ComplexChicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions EscalateRussia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up ReportThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production HighUS ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.📌 Bottom LineChina appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏥 ACA Health Insurance & FarmersEnhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums.Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage.Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain.As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks.🌱 Grain MarketsSoybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop.Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37.Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10.🇨🇳 China & SoybeansChina’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies.Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle.The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans.👷 US Labor MarketThe labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020.Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown.The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation.Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased.🛢️ Oil & EnergyOil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021.The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 NOPA Soybean CrushNOPA released its November crush report on MondayUS soybean crush hit an all-time November recordCrush was lower than October’s record, but well above last yearEnd-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month highOil stocks also came in above trade expectations📉 Soybean Futures PressureSoybean futures extended losses on MondayThe Jan26 contract settled near $10.72Market pressure continues from:Slow Chinese buyingExpectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channelsA near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation🚢 Export Inspections UpdateUS soybean inspections disappointed last weekShipments were well below last year’s paceAbout one-quarter of soybeans were headed to ChinaCorn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectationsNorthern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement🧪 Fertilizer Market NewsThe US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekendUS fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in responseBelarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impactBelarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supplyTrump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk📦 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported additional flash sales on MondaySoybeans sold to China for next marketing year deliveryCorn sold to unknown destinations📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)USDA released another outdated export sales reportSoybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by ChinaCorn sales slipped from the prior weekWheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat MarketsSoybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower.📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time. 🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China WatchUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher. 🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical CommoditiesHedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses. ⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas DelayedThe EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Fertilizer MarketsFertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costsPotash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costsLast month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.🌎 Export Flash SalesSoybeans:264,000 mt to China (25/26)266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)Corn:186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectationsMexico was the top buyerSoybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-weekGermany was the largest buyerSmall China cancellationWheat: Sales beat expectations sharplyUnknown destinations led buying🇧🇷 South America UpdateConab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmtStill a record crop if realizedThe cut reflects dry November weather and some replantingAbout 90% planted as of early DecemberFirst exportable supplies expected early JanuaryTotal exports estimated at 112 mmt🌦️ US Drought MonitorCorn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snowDrought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and INHigh Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE OklahomaAreas Experiencing Drought:🌽 Corn: 31%🌱 Soybeans: 31%🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%🐄 Cattle: 25%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏦 Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Straight MeetingThe Federal Reserve lowered interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate down to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. Three FOMC members dissented — the most pushback since 2019 — signaling deep concern about the path forward.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the goal is to steady the labor market while keeping inflation moving toward the 2% target. The Fed’s new projections show just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, far fewer than markets expected.Some economists warn that stagflation is becoming a real risk — inflation that stays too high while job growth weakens.👉 Prices keep rising while the economy slows, family budgets get squeezed, and fixing one problem risks worsening the other.🌱 Soybeans Rebound on Flash SalesSoybean futures stabilized after multi-week lows. Jan26 beans +4¢, settling near $10.91 after USDA announced a 5 mil bu sale to China and 12 mil bu to unknown destinations. Gains were limited by ongoing confusion regarding China’s schedule for buying the agreed 12mmt of U.S. soybeans.Corn and wheat moved lower:• Mar26 corn −4¢ → ~$4.44• Mar Chicago wheat −5¢ → ~$5.30🚢 Fresh Flash Sales Reported WednesdayUSDA confirmed new export activity for 2025/26 delivery:• 136,000mt soybeans → China (~5 mil bu)• 331,000mt soybeans → Unknown (~12 mil bu)• 120,000mt soybean cake & meal → Poland🌾 Trump Administration Rolls Out $700M Regenerative Ag PilotThe White House announced a $700 million program under “Make America Healthy Again” to expand practices like cover crops, no-till, conservation planning, and whole-farm soil & water management.Farmers will apply through EQIP or CSP, with an emphasis on soil health, water quality, and habitat.📝 Payment rates have not yet been released.⚓ Ukraine Hits Russia’s Shadow Fleet AgainUkraine used Sea Baby drones to attack a large Suezmax tanker tied to Russia’s oil trade. The empty vessel (1 million-barrel capacity) suffered major damage.As these attacks continue:• Freight costs are expected to rise• Crews are increasingly wary of Black Sea movements• Putin warned he may retaliate against vessels controlled by Ukraine’s allies• He also suggested Russia could cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea entirely⛽ US Ethanol Production SlipsWeekly ethanol output fell to 1.11 million bpd (−1.9% vs. last week, +3% vs. last year).Stocks declined to 22.51 million barrels, slightly lower week-over-week and −2.1% versus last year.Margins have weakened: Reuters estimates break-even to +30¢ across the Corn Belt based on spot corn, DDGs, inputs, and product values.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline ConfusionQuestions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one.So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline. 📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn StrongTuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises.• Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low• Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu• Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likelyCorn was the bright spot:• Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast• Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery CostsAfter President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use.Equipment inflation has been driven by:• Post-COVID manufacturing inflation• Tech advancements• Steel & aluminum tariffs🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast• New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November• Still 5% above the 2025 projectionUSDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver.Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo.US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil.🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export TaxesPermanent tax cuts are coming soon:• Soybeans 24% → 22%• Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5%• Corn 9.5% → 8.5%• Wheat 9.5% → 7.5%Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs.🥈 Silver Breaks Record HighSpot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈Drivers include:• Expected Fed rate cuts today• Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns• Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flowsSilver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum. 📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up AcceleratedCommitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January.Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor PricesPresident Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses.• $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program• $1B → specialty crops• Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years• Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET• Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet.Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower.📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CSTTraders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks:• Corn & wheat → slight declines• Soybeans → modest increaseGlobal: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop OutlookAgRural projects:• Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year)• Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged)Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields.The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦🇨🇳 Flash Sale to ChinaAnother soybean flash sale Monday:• 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 deliverySince late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales.🚢 Export InspectionsWeek ending Dec 4:• Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year• Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year• Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last yearChina finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf.PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR.📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports)Week ending Nov 6:• Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer)• Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer)• Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA.🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear!China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉🤝 US–China Trade CallUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments.🗓️ The wrinkle:The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.”📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC DataThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱→ Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce.CFTC says data will be fully current by late January.🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean UpdatePlanting is nearly wrapped up:91% planted vs 95% last yearMostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top statesNew crop estimates vary widely:Patria: 171.9mmtConab: 177.6mmtUSDA: 175mmt🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage OutlookUSDA’s first look at 26/27:Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%)Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%)Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%)These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday:• 100,800mt to Colombia• 392,500mt to Mexico➡️ Both for 2025/26 MYCorn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid.📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales ReportWeek ending Oct 30:• Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer)• Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt)• Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer)🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking• Pork values now the lowest since 2022• Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further• Weak consumer spending + slow economy• China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications⛽ API Flips Again on E15American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions🔊 Pete Meyer:“Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.”🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat CropStatsCan final crop report:• ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record• Beats 38.5mmt estimates• Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY)➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat🌦 Drought Monitor UpdateCorn Belt: mostly steady✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin❌ Slight worsening: MichiganHigh Plains: little change✔ Only modest improvement in NE KansasUS Areas in Drought:• Corn — 30%• Soybeans — 30%• Winter Wheat — 35%• Spring Wheat — 16%• Cattle — 25%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving?China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging. 📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks:At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf1 vessel already en route—the first since MayStill well behind typical purchase paceLow Chinese demand = pressure on soybean pricesUS sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March.🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans.He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop.⛽️ Ethanol Production = New RecordUS output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high.Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels.But… ethanol margins have softened:Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs ExplodeUkrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation:➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown ContinuesADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration.Monthly job growth:62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain HigherTensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents.Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It?Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves.The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year.There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies.🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to ChinaReuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays.These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish.💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next WeekAg Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized.President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾📈 Farmer Sentiment SurgesUS farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144.This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Lawmakers are zeroed in on trade issues and a potential new farm-aid package as the year winds down. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to release details this week—but many in D.C. and across farm country say it won’t be nearly enough. The American Farm Bureau notes that the rumored $12B is a fraction of the $50B+ in losses farmers have endured over the last three years. Deputy USDA Secretary Stephen Vaden added that recently negotiated trade deals could impact how much aid is ultimately distributed.🚢 Export Inspections: Soybeans Still DraggingSoybeans: 920,194mt (34M bu) — +14% vs last week, but -56% vs last year 😬Corn: 1.4mmt (56M bu)—-16% vs last week, +50% vs last year 🚀Wheat: 384,881mt (14M bu) — -20% vs last week, +29% vs last yearA small amount of sorghum headed to China. Expect more China-bound soybeans in the coming weeks.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting UpdatePrivate group AgRural pegs soybean planting at 89%, slightly behind last year’s 91%. Moisture issues exist in pockets, but it’s still too early to raise yield concerns.Patria Agronegocios: 171.9mmt (+0.2%)Conab: 177.6mmtUSDA: 175.0mmt📈 Catch-Up Export Sales (Week Ending Oct 23)Soybeans: 1.4mmt (53M bu), +31%, Mexico top buyerCorn: 1.8mmt (71M bu), -36%, Mexico top buyerWheat: 499,800mt (18M bu), +46%, unknown destinations top buyer🇦🇺 Massive Australian Wheat Crop IncomingAustralia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast to 35.6 mmt—up 5.3% and potentially the third-largest crop on record.Timely spring rains + mild temps = big yields.This adds to global supply pressure, with Chicago wheat recently hitting 5-year lows.USDA expects Australia to account for 4.3% of global output this year.👍 Thanks for watching!Drop a comment, smash the like button, and subscribe for daily updates.Stay informed—stay independent. 🌾📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…)Corn:USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer.I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data.Soybeans:Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer.Wheat:Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer.🚨 Flash Sales UpdateUSDA reported multiple flashes Friday:• 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26• 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal.There are 22 business days left in 2025.China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target.🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean ImportsChina halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus.Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly.🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins• Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW).• Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW).• Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year.Margins remain solid:Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs.🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online SpendingUS consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day.In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY.Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean BuyingChina made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks.🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework?Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides.Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week.📊 CFTC Fund Positioning UpdateCFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July.Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts.SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May.Private estimates for yesterday’s close:Corn: –110kSoybeans: +120kSRW Wheat: –65kCFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below.🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)For the week ending Oct 9:Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41%Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15%Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31%Mexico was the top buyer across all three. 🎰 Online Betting Risks Are GrowingBank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men.Research shows:Lower credit scoresHigher bankruptcy ratesMore debt going to collectionsPrediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & SorghumTwo Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March.These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal.🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to ChinaChina resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported:• 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26• 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in NovemberWith 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt.🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20)Soybeans:• 799,042mt (29mb)• Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointingCorn:• 1.6mmt (64mb)• Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last yearWheat:• 474,530mt (17mb)• Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone CallPresident Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented.The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US.💵🚜 More Farmer Aid ExpectedUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.”Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks.🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month HighChinese corn futures have rallied due to:• Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions• Slow farmer selling• Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn outThrough October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage CrunchWisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting UpdateConsulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the BoardAs of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef PlantTyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.Changes take effect by end of January.Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent OutlookThe government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌦️ Weather & Drought UpdateMost of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OKUS Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%💰 Farm Financial StressThree straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.🚢 China Purchases & Export SalesFlash Sales Thursday:• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MYBrazil & Argentina Shipments:• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)• U.S. → 0mtChina imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.📦 Export Sales SnapshotCorn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyerSoybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyerWheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer🐂 Cattle MarketsCattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.• Trump is pushing lower beef prices• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 Farm Aid UpdateThe Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown.Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season.🇨🇳 China Soybean PurchasesUSDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday:• 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold• China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeksThere are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day.Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting.🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global)S&P Global’s monthly survey points to:• Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%)• Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%)• All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%)🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be DelayedThe administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits.• Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1• Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs• Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise pricesEPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months.Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline.🍺 Ethanol Production & MarginsUS ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW).Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year.Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix.📉 CFTC Commitment of TradersCFTC released its first COT data since reopening:• Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k• Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k• SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96kCFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid OutlookRecent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities.Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war.Vaden quote:“The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.”🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to ChinaUSDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks.Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising.📊 CFTC Data Returns TodayThe CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning.This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3.Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close:Funds short 50k cornLong 150k soybeansShort 60k SRW wheatCFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week.🚜 Crop Progress UpdateUSDA released its first crop progress report since reopening:Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year.Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished.Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg).🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays PlantingFlooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation.Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌤️ Markets: Soybeans Surge on China BuyingSoybean futures ripped higher Monday on renewed optimism that China is finally buying US product. Jan26 soybeans jumped about 33 cents to $11.57, the best trade since June 2024.Reuters reported that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes (~31 mil bu), while Bloomberg pegged the total closer to 20 cargoes. One soybean cargo = ~60,000mt or ~2.2 mil bu.China’s recent buying (including last week’s 232kmt flash sale) suggests total purchases of 1.0–1.4mmt in recent weeks — only 8–12% of the 12mmt the White House says China will buy before Jan 1. The rally and firmer spreads are being driven entirely by this Chinese activity.But… higher US futures are once again pricing us above Brazil, hurting competitiveness.📊 USDA Flash Sale CorrectionsUSDA revised several daily sales from the shutdown backlog:The early-November soybean sale to China was cut from 232kmt to 132kmt after a 100kmt cancellation.Total Chinese soybean purchases reported via flash sales now total 232kmt over two separate announcements.USDA also removed a previously reported corn sale to Japan.🏭 NOPA Crush Sets a RecordNOPA members processed 227.65 million bushels in October — a new all-time high.+15% from September+14% from October 2024Well above the trade estimate of 209.52 millionSoybean oil stocks hit 1.31 billion lbs—still the third-lowest October on record, but:+5% vs September+22% vs last yearAbove expectations at 1.26 billion🚢 Export Inspections MixedSoybeans:USDA reported 1.2mmt (~43 mil bu) inspected last week —• +4.6% on the week• –48% vs last year• Zero inspected for ChinaCorn:2.1mmt (~81 mil bu) —• +38% on the week• +135% vs last year• Easily beat expectationsWheat:246,533mt (~9 mil bu) —• –15% on the week• +25% vs last year• Missed expectations🐄 US Dairy Herd Hits 25-Year HighThe US dairy herd reached 9.54 million head in Q3 — the largest since 1993. Producers are keeping more cows to expand beef-on-dairy output at a time when the US beef cow herd is at its smallest level in 70+ years.This trend won’t fully fix the cattle shortage, but it could drive the first increase in the US calf crop since 2018 and help stabilize supply during future cattle-cycle lows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Falls Far Short of US Soybean TargetsConcerns are growing over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans. USDA data released Friday showed that China has purchased just 332,000mt of US soybeans since the recently negotiated trade truce—less than 3% of the 12mmt China was reported to have agreed to buy by January. Officials also suggested China would purchase 25mmt annually for the next three years, but there’s little evidence of follow-through.With 31 business days left in 2025, China would need to average 376,387mt per day (about 14 million bushels daily) to meet the target. For now, China has little incentive to buy US soybeans because Brazil and South America are offering cheaper, abundant supplies. Even so, President Trump has said Chinese officials assured him that “much larger” purchases are coming.📊 USDA Report: Bearish Corn, Softer Soybean OutlookFriday’s USDA report carried a bearish tone for corn. USDA cut the national corn yield to 186 bpa and production to 16.75B bu, but trade expected even lower. The average pre-report guess was 184 bpa and 16.56B bu.Soybean yield was trimmed to 53 bpa, with production at 4.25B bu, both below expectations. Despite the new US–China trade truce, USDA reduced its soybean export forecast to 1.6B bu. The agency also noted that several normal data sources were unavailable, raising concerns about data quality and reliability.🧪 Tariffs Removed on Fertilizer ProductsPresident Trump signed an executive order Friday removing reciprocal tariffs on several agricultural inputs, including DAP, MAP, and potash. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, expecting lower fertilizer costs for farmers. Critics counter that the rollback effectively admits that prior tariffs raised consumer and producer costs. The administration maintains the tariffs improved America’s economic leverage.🇧🇷 Brazil Weather: Spotty Rain, Slow Soybean PlantingInconsistent rainfall continues to slow Brazil’s planting pace. AgRural estimated soybean planting at 71%, behind 80% during the same week last year. CropProphet data shows key Brazilian soybean areas received 82% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, with Mato Grosso at 77%.🥩 Tariff Changes for Food ProductsTrump also reduced tariffs on certain food products not grown in the US, including beef. The order removes the 10% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef last April but leaves the existing 40% tariff (from July) and 26.4% over-quota tariff in place—meaning Brazilian beef still faces a combined 66.4% rate. The policy shift has introduced uncertainty into cattle markets and weighed on prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA ReportsCorn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown🚢 US Export Sales Return After ShutdownFor the week ending Sept 25:• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still StrongWeekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:• Output: -2.7%• Stocks: +1%Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean OutlookSoybeans:• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exportsCorn:• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)🌧️ US Drought Monitor UpdateRainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of OklahomaUS Areas in Drought:🌽 Corn—29%🫘 Soybeans—31%🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%🌾 Spring Wheat—17%🐄 Cattle — 28%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Grain Markets This MorningSoybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines.🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean AcresMarket economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago.Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets.🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again)Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet:12mmt pledge before Jan 125mmt annually over the next three yearsChina never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff.With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks.🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST)Expectations heading into Friday:Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large cropSoybeans: Slight cuts to yield and productionEnding stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheatGlobal stocks: Minimal changes expectedUSDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions.🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the TableThe Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend.Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Chooses BrazilChina’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus.Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st.🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn ImportsAs part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff.Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand.🏛️ Shutdown Nears an EndThe Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30.All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize.Traders are watching for the return of two key reports:1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing?2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything?🌽 WASDE & Crop Production AheadThe USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect:A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and productionSlight declines for soybeansMarginal increases to U.S. ending stocksBecause of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight. 📈 Grain Market RecapFutures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped.Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 Iowa Farmland ControversyIowa Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is backing a plan to raise taxes on out-of-state property owners — including farmland. Sand argues it would help make land more affordable for Iowans and preserve state culture.👉 Iowa State University’s 2022 data shows half of Iowa farmland is owned by non-farmers, and a quarter of 2022 land sales were investment-driven. Two of the top 10 landowners in Iowa are based out of state.🌱 Market UpdateSoybeans led Monday’s rally—Jan 26, up 13¢ to $11.30/bu—as optimism grows that the government shutdown may end and exports to China may pick up.Corn gained nearly 3¢ to $4.30, and Chicago wheat rose 8¢ to $5.36.📊 Traders are eyeing possible yield cuts in Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.🚢 Export InspectionsUSDA data showed 1.1mmt of soybeans inspected for export last week—up 11% from the prior week but down 54% from last year.🇨🇳 China was absent from the market.Corn: 1.4mmt (strong vs. last year)Wheat: 290kmt (weaker week-over-week)🥩 Tyson Foods OutlookTyson Foods expects 2026 profits to hold steady despite ongoing beef segment losses from high cattle prices.🐄 The US cow herd is at a 70-year low, and rebuilding may take until 2028.🍗 Stronger demand for chicken and processed products is helping offset beef weakness.President Trump recently urged the DOJ to investigate major packers — including Tyson — over alleged price manipulation.🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & PlantingBrazil’s soybean planting reached 61%, up 14% from the week prior but behind last year’s 67%.🌦️ Irregular rainfall continues to slow progress.Corn planting is 72% complete, in line with 2024.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.✅ Today’s Focus: Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend & Inflation Risks📊 💰 Economic & Policy UpdatesPresident Trump announced plans for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans. He said the payout would exclude high-income earners and be funded by tariff revenue, which he also pledged to use toward the $37 trillion national debt. Any such payments would likely need congressional approval.Scott Bessent later clarified that support could come in other forms, such as tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is pushing for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage program, both moves viewed as potentially inflationary.🥩 🐄 Meatpackers Under FireTrump accused major meatpacking companies of manipulating beef prices and urged the Justice Department to investigate. Beef prices remain high as the US cattle herd sits at its smallest size in 74 years. The Meat Institute defended the industry, citing transparency and oversight, while USDA data shows packers facing steep losses expected to continue into next year.🍔 🏢 Texas Roadhouse OutlookTexas Roadhouse expects commodity costs to rise 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, driven by higher beef prices. Commodity inflation reached 7.9% in Q3, but the chain offset pressure through 1.7% menu price hikes and strong customer traffic. Same-store sales rose 6.1%, beating forecasts.🌏 🇨🇳 China Trade DevelopmentsChina will reinstate soybean import licenses for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT on Nov. 10, easing tensions after a recent Trump–Xi trade truce. The move follows tariff cuts and limited US grain purchases. Still, traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through on purchase commitments.🌾 📈 Fund Position EstimatesPrivate data (amid the government shutdown) suggest:Corn: net short 40–60KSoybeans: net long 100–150KSRW Wheat: net short 50–80KFunds were net buyers of 7K soybean contracts last week and ended the week flat in corn. The Senate moved closer to ending the shutdown after a bipartisan vote on Sunday.⛽ 🧪 Biofuel Waiver RulingsThe EPA granted biofuel blending exemptions to HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, while Chevron was denied. The waivers apply to blending obligations from 2021–2023 and were issued for economic hardship. Biofuel producers warned the move could undermine renewable fuel demand and add market uncertainty.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.🌾 Soybean Market DropSoybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉🇨🇳 China Trade UpdateCOFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s TariffsThe Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.🇦🇷 Argentina Crop ProgressSoybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.🌧️ US Drought MonitorRecent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.Corn: 30%Soybeans: 32%Winter Wheat: 38%Spring Wheat: 17%Cattle: 26%💼 Jobs & MarketsPrivate data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain MarketsReuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.💼 Tariff Rollbacks from BeijingChina’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.🌽 Corn Harvest & YieldsCorn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.🍶 Ethanol Sets a New RecordU.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.Stocks: 22.66 million barrelsMargins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer GambleBrazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.🐄 Cattle Market MeltdownCattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.💰 Farm Aid UpdateThe Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.🏭 ADM Outlook CutADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.💵 King Dollar FlexesRisk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment ReboundsThe Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.📊 Barometer graphics below.🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still ClosedSec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.📏 S&P Global Crop EstimatesS&P holding steady:🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌎 China’s Soybean ShuffleChina booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn HotUS soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬China is still absent.Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.Wheat is also stronger YoY.🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat AgainChina sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.🌱 Brazil Planting LagsHeat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.Some replant risk.StoneX tweaks the outlook:• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost WrappedAnalysts peg harvest at:• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)Dry weather helped.Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.📊 StoneX US Yield Update• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmedUS production is essentially steady vs last month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTube🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean PurchasesWhat does the new agreement really mean for US farmers?Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”?President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for:Farm incomeGlobal demandExport competitivenessLong-term policy visionIs it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input CostsWe talk:Future support programsInput inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel)Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder CattleHow does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on:Mexican border flowsFeeder cattle pricesBeef import potentialU.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈🏢 USDA Workforce CutsYep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce:12mmt through January25mmt annually for 3 yearsRemoval of tariffs on most US ag goodsThis is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear.Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned.ASA reaction:✅ Positive tone✅ Relief after stalled demand✅ Optimism for future growthAlso—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure.Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/buCorn slipped lowerDec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwindsWheat lowerDec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24📝 Key TakeawayThis deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty.Markets like it. Farmers like it.And it beats the alternative. ✔️🌦️ Weather & Crop ConditionsUS drought conditions were mostly steady this week.Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL.High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains.Corn impacted by drought: 30%Soybeans: 34%Winter wheat: 40%Cattle areas in drought: 26%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌦️ Macro & PolicyPresident Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet.Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂Policy headline? ✅Actual commitments? 🤷‍♂️🌾 Grains & China BuyingCOFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines.Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayerFutures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lowerUntil we see more sales, the market remains cautious.🐄 Cattle & Border NewsU.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak.$21M U.S. investment in sterile fly programNo timeline for reopeningCattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday.⛽ Ethanol UpdateEthanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly.Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop OutlookRabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports.Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%.Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱💵 Interest Rates & MacroThe Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%.Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach.Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%).The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Buys U.S. Soybeans for the First Time This Marketing Year🌦 Market HighlightsChina has purchased U.S. soybeans for the first time this marketing year. Reuters reports that state-owned COFCO bought three cargoes (≈180,000 mt / 6.6 mil bu) for Dec–Jan shipment ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. U.S. beans remain about 50¢/bu cheaper than Brazilian beans for November export.🌾 Futures ActionSoybean futures hit their highest level in over a year Tuesday. The Jan 26 contract reached $11.00 before easing to around $10.95 on profit-taking and increased farmer selling. Corn and wheat also advanced—Dec 25 corn closed near $4.32/bu, its best since early July.🏛 Washington WatchThe U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on seed and fertilizer market concentration. Four companies now control 80% of corn seed and 75% of soybean seed sales. The American Soybean Association warned that farmers face mounting pressure as production costs surge and prices fall—soybean producers could see net losses of $109/acre this year.🤝 Global Trade & PolicyThe U.S. and Japan signed two agreements Tuesday—one strengthening the alliance, another on rare-earth supply chains. Despite the fanfare, key trade gaps remain. Japan already imports roughly $12 billion in U.S. ag products annually, including corn, beef, pork, and soybeans, suggesting its new $8 billion annual commitment likely reflects normal volumes.🐄 Livestock PressureFeeder cattle futures fell sharply again as President Trump vowed to lower beef prices. Since his Argentine beef import proposal, feeder cattle have dropped nearly $50/cwt amid speculation of resumed Mexican imports and tariff cuts on Brazilian beef.🌽 Ethanol & EnergyIndia continues to block U.S. ethanol imports despite U.S. pressure in ongoing trade talks. India blends about 2.6 billion gal/year of ethanol domestically and protects its farmers’ $13 billion in feedstock income—making ethanol policy a major sticking point.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Welcome to today’s grain market update!Soybean futures surged to their highest level since June as optimism grows that China may resume U.S. soybean purchases following President Trump’s comments on a potential trade deal with President Xi.🌤️ Weather & Harvest ProgressCorn and soybean harvests are nearly wrapped up across the U.S. Analysts estimate the corn harvest at 72% complete and soybeans at 84%, both slightly behind last year’s record pace. Rain slowed progress in parts of the Corn Belt, but steady combining continues elsewhere. With the government still shut down, no official Crop Production or WASDE report is expected on November 10th.🌎 Global Market TrendsBrazilian planting is racing ahead — 36% of soybeans and 55% of first-crop corn are in the ground, matching last year’s pace. Conab pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn output at 138.6mmt (-1.8% YoY). 🚢 Export & Shipment DataU.S. soybean inspections were disappointing at 1.1mmt — the weakest seasonal figure since 2011/12. Corn shipments were 1.2mmt, and wheat came in light at just 258kmt. Top soybean destinations included Indonesia, Israel, and Italy.🐂 Livestock & Policy WatchCattle markets were hammered again Monday. Feeder cattle contracts hit expanded limits, and live cattle dropped sharply amid news of expanded Argentine beef imports and possible Mexican feeder cattle inflows. A Trump–Brazil meeting also hinted at renewed Brazilian beef trade.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade TalksUS and Chinese leaders made progress on a trade deal during meetings in Malaysia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is now off the table. He also hinted at an agreement that would extend the current tariff truce and defer China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. China is expected to make substantial purchases of US soybeans, though details on volumes and timing are still unclear. The talks set the stage for a meeting later this week between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, where a final deal could be announced.🌾 Ag Markets: Soybeans, Corn & WheatSoybean futures gapped higher overnight. The Jan ’26 contract trades at its best level since late August, while the spot Nov ’25 contract is at its highest since July 2024. Corn and wheat futures are also trading higher, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese demand and improved export prospects.🔍 Phase One ReviewThe US has launched an investigation into China’s compliance with the 2020 Phase One trade deal. That agreement required China to significantly boost imports of US farm goods, especially soybeans. China committed to an average of $40 billion per year over two years but reached only about 77% of the target. A public hearing is scheduled for December 16, and the probe could lead to new tariffs if violations are found.🐄 Cattle & Beef MarketsCattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down. The selloff was triggered by reports that US and Mexican officials will meet to discuss reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Traders are also reacting to plans by the Trump administration to lower domestic beef prices by allowing more Argentine beef imports. The uncertainty has caused speculators to unwind large net long positions in the cattle market.💸 Inflation & MarketsInflation came in slightly cooler than expected in September. The CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 3.0% from a year ago. Gasoline prices were up 4.1% for the month and accounted for much of the gain. The softer inflation report boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this week.📈 Stock Market RallyStocks rallied to record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones topped 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged strong weekly gains. The market optimism is driven by easing inflation and growing confidence that interest rate cuts are on the way.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans & CornSoybean and corn futures advanced on Thursday. The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10¢ to about $10.45/bu, its highest level in more than a month. Support came from surging oil prices, optimism over a potential US–China trade deal, and strong crush margins.The Dec25 corn contract gained 5¢ to $4.28/bu, boosted by strong export demand, firmer basis bids, and limited farmer selling. Rumors swirled of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat—US beans remain 64¢ cheaper than Brazil’s on a global basis.🌏 Trump–Xi Trade TalksPresident Trump and President Xi will meet next Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The talks follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after Beijing’s new rare earth restrictions.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with Chinese negotiators in Malaysia this weekend to prepare the groundwork.🛢️ Oil & SanctionsThe US blacklisted two Russian oil firms, pressuring China to curb Russian crude imports—which make up roughly 20% of its supply. Companies that ignore sanctions risk losing access to global financial systems.Oil prices jumped 5.6%, with WTI crude at $61.75/bbl.🥩 Argentine Beef ImportsThe US will quadruple beef imports from Argentina, raising the tariff quota to 80,000mt (176M lbs). Critics say it hurts US ranchers and won’t meaningfully lower prices—the increase equals just 0.8% of annual consumption.🇺🇸 US beef consumption ≈ 28.6B lbs🇦🇷 Annual beef imports ≈ 5B+ lbs🐄 US–Mexico Border TalksTalks resume next week to reopen the border for Mexican feeder cattle. The closure since May, due to a New World screwworm outbreak, has reduced US feedlot placements by ~500,000 head over three months.🌤️ US Drought Update (USDA Monitor)Drought conditions were mostly steady last week.✅ Improvement: Southern IL, Western KY❌ Worsening: NE Iowa, Eastern IL, Central OKUS Areas Experiencing Drought🌽 Corn – 32%🌱 Soybeans – 39%🌾 Winter Wheat – 43%🌾 Spring Wheat – 16%🐄 Cattle – 27%💬 Stay InformedSubscribe for daily updates, and let me know your thoughts in the comments. Your engagement keeps this independent channel going!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Today’s Focus: Trump vs. Ranchers, China’s Crop Damage, and U.S.–China Trade Tensions 🇺🇸🌾🐄 Trump Attacks U.S. RanchersPresident Trump took aim at U.S. cattle ranchers Wednesday, criticizing their pushback against his plan to lower domestic beef prices. He claimed ranchers owe their success to his tariff policies and suggested they’d be struggling without him. The remarks followed his recent move to boost Argentine beef imports — a decision that sent cattle futures plunging. Live cattle dropped more than $7/cwt, while feeder cattle hit their daily limit, down $9.25/cwt. See Trump’s Truth Social posts below.🌧️ China’s Corn Crop in TroubleHeavy rain is hammering northern China’s corn belt — the wettest stretch in 60 years — leaving millions of acres unharvested and some crops rotting. Imports are down 93% from last year as China leans on domestic supply, but the losses could tighten stocks. USDA pegs China’s corn reserves at 193 mmt, roughly 45% of this year’s U.S. crop. Corn harvest is likely about 75% complete. Six key provinces, accounting for nearly 40% of production, have faced excessive rain in recent weeks. 🤝 U.S.–China Trade TalksU.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Malaysia this weekend ahead of a potential Trump–Xi summit in South Korea. The U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning November 1 if no agreement is reached. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading the delegation in ongoing talks through Sunday. Soybean purchases and rare earth mineral restrictions remain key flashpoints.💻 New Export Controls?The Trump administration is weighing fresh export restrictions on critical U.S. software to China, mirroring measures once aimed at Russia. The plan may involve coordination with G-7 allies but remains preliminary. It follows China’s new port fees on U.S. vessels and limits on rare earth exports.⛽ Ethanol Output Near RecordU.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.11 million barrels per day last week — the second-highest on record. Stocks dropped to a 51-week low near 21.9 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid, ranging from +20¢ to +50¢ per gallon.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.✅ Welcome to today’s update! We’re covering farm aid, trade talks, beef expansion plans, global wheat crops, and precious metals volatility.🌾 USDA Resumes Farm AidThe Trump administration will restart $3 billion in payments through the Farm Service Agency. All FSA offices reopen Thursday, with ARC/PLC and loan programs resuming after the shutdown pause. Brooke Rollins says additional support for farmers impacted by the US–China trade war will follow soon. 🤝 Trump–Xi Meeting & SoybeansTrump remains optimistic about a meeting with Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea, though the timing isn’t guaranteed. He said, “Maybe it won’t happen… it’s just business.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese officials this weekend to prepare. No new US soybean sales to China have been reported as tensions persist.🥩 Beef Expansion PlanUSDA plans to open more land for cattle production and build new processing plants. Rollins says the move will grow the cowherd and reduce beef prices. The plan follows backlash over increased Argentine beef imports.🌾 Russia’s Wheat OutlookIKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast slightly to 88 mmt. Exports remain sluggish—down 18% from last year—keeping global wheat prices under pressure. 🥇 Gold & Silver SlideGold plunged 6.3% to $4,105 and silver 8.3%, marking their steepest drops in years. Analysts see $4,000 as key gold support, with Goldman targeting $4,900 by 2026.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🌎 U.S.–Colombia Tensions EscalatePresident Trump announced new aid cuts and potential tariffs against Colombia, accusing President Gustavo Petro of failing to curb drug production. Colombia — a longtime U.S. ally — received $230 million in aid last year, down from more than $700 million in earlier years. The country pulled its ambassador from D.C. but has not announced any economic retaliation. Since Colombia accounted for 11% of U.S. corn exports (≈2% of total demand), these tensions could carry real ag-trade implications. 🌽 🇨🇳🚫 China Stops Buying U.S. SoybeansFor the first time since 2018, China imported zero U.S. soybeans in September. A year ago, the figure was 1.7 mmt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s shipments to China jumped 30%, and Argentina’s surged 92%. Total Chinese soybean imports hit 12.9 mmt — the second-highest monthly total on record. Without a trade deal, China may face a supply gap early next year before Brazil’s new-crop harvest. 🌱📦 Weekly Export InspectionsUSDA reported:• Soybeans – 1.5 mmt (+45% vs week prior)• Corn – 1.3 mmt (+9%)• Wheat – 480,614 mt (+7%)Top soybean destinations: Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Germany.🇧🇷🌦️ Brazil Planting ProgressAgRural says 24% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted (up from 14% last week and 18% last year). First-crop corn planting is 51% complete. Conab projects soybean output at 177.6 mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn at 138.6 mmt (-1.8% YoY). 🥩 Argentina Beef Imports?Trump says he’s considering increased Argentine beef imports to ease U.S. prices and support Argentina’s economy. But Argentina supplies only 2% of U.S. beef imports — even if the U.S. bought its entire export capacity (770,000 mt), price effects would be minimal. Foot-and-mouth disease risks make this a controversial proposal. 🐄

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚜 ADM Deferred Pricing OfferADM is now offering deferred pricing at its Decatur, IL facility — a move aimed at jumpstarting soybean deliveries. Farmers can deliver soybeans now, transfer ownership, and set a final price anytime before September 2026.🟡 No storage fees🟡 Immediate ADM ownership🟡 Unusual timing — normally seen after the new yearSlow farmer sales due to weak prices are tightening processor supplies, prompting ADM’s rare “free DP” incentive.🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade TalksTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Malaysia this week. The session sets the stage for a Trump–Xi meeting later this month.👉 Trump hinted he’s open to lowering tariffs if China resumes soybean purchases “like before.”👉 The trade truce expires in November, keeping markets on edge.🌽🫘 Futures UpdateCorn and soybeans both ended the week higher:🌽 Dec ’25 Corn – around $4.23, supported by slow sales and lower yields🫘 Nov ’25 Soybeans – near $10.20, boosted by domestic demand and trade optimismOvernight gains continued after Trump’s weekend remarks.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting ProgressBrazilian soybean planting is racing ahead — 23% complete vs. 9% last year.🌧️ Well-distributed rain + warm temps are ideal.📊 Conab projects 177.7 MMT, while USDA is at 175 MMT.🐄 Cattle Market MovesCattle futures tumbled Friday after Trump hinted at potential steps to lower beef prices.💬 Analyst Brad Kooima says inflation-adjusted prices remain stable, but political pressure could spark a Brazil beef import deal, worrying U.S. producers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Market Turns HigherCorn and soybean futures advanced Thursday, supported by smaller-than-expected yields and harvest delays from upcoming rains. Dec ’25 corn added 5¢ to $4.22 while Nov ’25 soybeans climbed 4¢ to $10.11. Strong domestic crush demand and tighter spreads helped fuel optimism. Corn calendar spreads have rallied sharply—slow farmer selling and steady ethanol demand likely helped. 📈🇨🇳 China’s Soybean DilemmaHigh Brazilian premiums ($2.80–$2.90 over futures) may force China to tap its state reserves as crush margins remain negative. With 43.5 mmt of soybeans in storage—the largest on record—China has room to draw down stocks as it battles through the trade war.🐄 Cattle Prices Hit New HighsLive cattle surged to record levels, driven by tight supplies and border closures to Mexican cattle imports. Fat cattle traded $240/cwt in parts of the Midwest. The Trump administration says it’s working to lower beef prices, possibly through new import deals.⛽ Ethanol Stays StrongUS ethanol production rose to 1.07 million bpd last week while stocks fell slightly. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid—between 20–50¢ positive, according to Reuters.🏈 CME Launches “Prediction Futures”CME Group plans to roll out new contracts linked to sports and economic outcomes, partnering with FanDuel. These products could shake up prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.🌦️ Drought UpdateUSDA data shows 38% of the Corn Belt still under drought, though that’s improved from last year’s 53%. The worst areas remain in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Farm Bailout on HoldA “clever and generous” farm aid package is ready to launch once the government shutdown ends. Kevin Hassett says it was supposed to drop by Oct. 7 but got delayed. Reports point to at least $10 billion — likely funded by tariff revenue — to offset weak exports and global oversupply. Polymarket bettors see a 33% chance the shutdown lasts past Nov. 16.💸 U.S. Support for ArgentinaThe Treasury plans another $20 billion to stabilize Argentina’s economy — on top of last week’s swap line. Scott Bessent says funding is policy-linked, not political. Some reports hint the U.S. has already bought Argentine pesos, implying exposure to currency risk.🌱 NOPA September CrushThe September soybean crush hit 197.86 million bushels — the fourth-highest on record and 11.6% above last year. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.24 billion pounds, the lowest since Dec 2024 and below trade expectations. 🇨🇳 Trade War ConfusionTrump confirmed the U.S. is “in a trade war with China,” even as Bessent floated extending the current truce if China halts rare-earth export controls. Talks with South Korea, Canada & India continue, and Trump is still set to meet Xi in South Korea later this month.🚢 Mississippi River CrisisLow water levels for the fourth straight year are tightening grain transport south of St. Louis. Rates are rising and efficiency is dropping just as soybean exports face trade-war headwinds. 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes.🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against ChinaPresident Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade ShiftChinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.🌱 Soybean Market UpdateSoybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.🚢 Port Fees & Trade TensionsTrump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%).💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes.🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US-China Meeting Still On President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month to discuss trade. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plans on Monday, easing fears the meeting might be canceled after a tense weekend. The news helped stocks rebound after Friday’s sell-off. Bessent said the two sides held extensive talks over the weekend and will continue discussions this week in Washington during the World Bank and IMF meetings. China’s commerce ministry reiterated it remains open to dialogue but warned the US against making threats while seeking talks.🌽🌱 US Harvest Progress Slows The US corn and soybean harvests are trailing last year’s pace. A Reuters poll showed corn harvest at 44% complete and soybeans at 58%, both slightly behind 2023 levels. Analysts attribute the lag to slower crop dry-down. Normally, USDA reports would confirm progress, but updates are paused due to the ongoing government shutdown.💵📈 Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Hopes The US dollar climbed Monday on optimism about a potential trade deal with China, brushing off Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, while the yen and euro weakened. Despite Friday’s market tumble, comments from Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested openness to more talks, helping restore confidence in US markets.🚜📊 Tractor Sales Finally Rise US tractor sales increased 4.1% in September—the first gain in over a year. The modest rebound offers hope for the struggling farm machinery sector, though combine sales plunged 22%. Manufacturers like John Deere expect 2025 to mark the low point for sales, with recovery likely next year.🌎🌾 China’s Soybean Imports Hit Record Levels China imported 12.9mmt of soybeans in September, the second-highest monthly total ever and the fifth straight record. Year-to-date imports are up 5.3% from last year, driven by strong demand and higher purchases from Argentina and Brazil. China hasn’t yet bought US soybeans this season, and renewed trade tensions are casting doubt on a Trump-Xi meeting to discuss the issue.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Accelerates Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly—14% complete as of last week, the third-fastest pace on record. AgRural reports rapid progress despite uneven weather, with Conab projecting a 177.7mmt crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 45% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes.🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Flare AgainTrade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated sharply. On Friday, President Trump announced plans to impose new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, raising total tariffs on many goods to 130%. The move follows China’s announcement of its own export controls, set to begin the same day. The back-and-forth has cast doubt on a potential Trump–Xi meeting later this month. Trump’s follow-up post on Sunday struck a softer tone, helping markets recover part of Friday’s losses. See both Truth Social posts below.🌾 Soybeans & Ag MarketsSoybean futures tumbled on Friday as trade tensions intensified. November ’25 soybeans fell 16¢ to around $10.07/bu after China announced new export restrictions and retaliatory port fees. The measures would target rare earth minerals and U.S.-linked vessels. Trump responded that there was “no reason” to meet with Xi and reaffirmed tariff threats. Hopes for a renewed Chinese purchase program have faded, though the U.S. is now exploring alternative export markets and domestic soybean uses.📉 Stocks & Crude Oil ReactionThe S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, Dow −1.9%, and Nasdaq −3.6% Friday—Wall Street’s worst day since April. The sell-off followed Trump’s tariff announcement and China’s rare-earth retaliation. Oil prices also slid, with WTI crude dipping below $59/bbl, the lowest since May. Despite the sharp move, equities remain near record highs after a months-long rally. Early Monday, futures rebounded following Trump’s more conciliatory weekend tone.💥 Crypto Market MeltdownThe tariff shock triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history—nearly 1.6 million traders liquidated, totaling $19 billion+, with some estimates as high as $400 billion in wiped-out value. Bitcoin plunged 12%, from over $125k to under $113k. Analysts now eye $100k as key support. Excessive leverage across crypto markets amplified the crash—“altcoins” were hit hardest. See Charlie Munger’s quote below on the dangers of leverage.🌦️ U.S. Weather & Harvest ProgressWeekend rainfall was light across much of the Corn Belt, with heavier totals in central/northern Missouri. Limited rains also reached the Dakotas and Minnesota. Based on prior USDA data (as of Sept 29: corn 18% harvested, soybeans 19%), harvest is likely near 50% complete. With the government shutdown, no new Crop Progress report will be released today.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 Trump Eyes Soybean Revival President Trump says he’s confident China will resume buying U.S. soybeans 🌱. He plans to pressure Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month to restart imports. A new farm aid package was expected this week to offset trade war losses, but the government shutdown ⛔ has delayed it. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says once the government reopens, a “significant” support program will roll out. Trump warned that if talks fail, the U.S. could restrict exports to China—or block Chinese imports entirely. ⚖️📉 Markets in the Dark The shutdown has blinded grain markets. With the USDA halting major reports—including export sales, crop progress, and WASDE—market transparency has vanished. Analysts say the lack of data is fueling uncertainty during harvest. 🌾 Big players like Cargill and ADM still have their own numbers, but smaller traders are left guessing. Many expect market corrections once the reports resume.🔥 Heat and Drought Deepen USDA’s latest drought monitor shows hot, dry weather worsening conditions across the Corn Belt. 🌡️ Drought expanded in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Missouri, while only parts of Iowa saw slight improvement. The High Plains also stayed dry, with more drought creeping into South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.Areas in Drought: 🌽 Corn – 31% 🫘 Soybeans – 39% 🌾 Winter Wheat – 45% 🌱 Spring Wheat – 16% 🐄 Cattle – 25%💵 U.S. Backs Argentina’s Economy The U.S. has launched a $20 billion financial rescue plan for Argentina, including a currency swap and direct peso purchases 🇦🇷. Some call the move risky, citing Argentina’s default history. U.S. farmers aren’t thrilled either—Argentina’s boosted soybean sales to China have cut into American export opportunities. 😒🌻 Russia Cuts Wheat Plantings Russian farmers plan to reduce wheat acreage by 6%, shifting to oilseeds instead. Poor profits, high export duties, and drought are driving the change. Russia expects to harvest about 88 million metric tons, but global oversupply keeps wheat prices near five-year lows. 📉🤝 U.S.–India Talks Gain Ground Trade talks between the U.S. and India are showing progress 🇮🇳. Modi and Trump discussed recent breakthroughs, and another round is coming soon. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India offered to import U.S. corn for ethanol as a concession. India produces 2.5B gallons of ethanol yearly—far below the U.S.’s 17B gallons. 🌽⚗️Stay informed! 📈Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on the latest news—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Fuels Brazil’s Soybean Boom China’s surging demand is driving Brazilian soybean exports to record highs. 🌱 Brazil is on pace to ship 102.2 MMT by the end of October, surpassing last year’s record. Nearly 80% of those exports are headed to China, as the country turns away from U.S. soybeans amid the ongoing trade war. With a bumper harvest, exports could reach 110 MMT for the full year.🌾 U.S. Farmers Face a Soybean Storage Squeeze A rapid harvest and weak Chinese demand have U.S. farmers running out of space. 🚜 Many face tough choices — piling soybeans on the ground under tarps or selling at steep discounts. In North Dakota, this year’s crop is expected to exceed storage by 33%, with surpluses of 26% in South Dakota and 15% in Nebraska.🛢️ Oil Slips as Tensions Ease and Supplies Build Oil prices fell Wednesday as easing Middle East tensions and rising U.S. inventories weighed on the market. Brent dipped below $66, and WTI slid to $61.50 per barrel. President Trump announced a Gaza hostage-release deal, while U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a second week. Analysts expect a market surplus soon, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent to average $56 next year.🍶 U.S. Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High Ethanol production jumped 7.6% week-over-week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the highest this season. Stocks fell slightly to 22.7 million barrels, while margins across the Corn Belt remain positive—ranging from 20¢ to 45¢ per gallon. 💪💸 Fed Split on Path for Rate Cuts Federal Reserve minutes revealed most policymakers expect more rate cuts this year, but opinions remain divided. 📉 Inflation is still sticky even as the labor market cools. The median forecast calls for two more quarter-point cuts by year-end, though some members see fewer. Markets are betting on cuts in October and December.🥇 Precious Metals Hit Record Highs Gold and silver soared Wednesday on safe-haven demand. 💰 Gold broke above $4,000/oz, and silver hit $49.57/oz—both all-time highs. The rallies were fueled by geopolitical risks, rate-cut expectations, and the U.S. government shutdown. Goldman Sachs now sees gold climbing to $4,900 by the end of 2026, with prices up 50% this year.📈 Stay InformedSubscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on the latest news—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸 US Farmer Sentiment US farmer sentiment was mostly steady in September. Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index ticked up slightly to 126, just one point above August. About 71% of farmers believe the US is headed in the right direction.Confidence in tariffs, however, has declined. Only 51% of respondents expect tariffs to benefit agriculture long-term, down from 63% in June and 70% earlier this year. Many farmers are counting on government support to help offset trade pressures, with 83% expecting a program similar to the 2019 MFP if the trade war continues. 🌽💵📊 USDA Reports Delayed The USDA won’t release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report due to the ongoing government shutdown. Reuters shared analysts’ expectations: US corn yield and production are expected to drop ~1%, while soybeans show little change. Corn carryout is projected to reach a seven-year high, supported by historically large September 1 stocks. Global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also expected to rise. 🌍🌾🚢 Mississippi River Challenges Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing grain transport issues. Although recent stabilization has allowed barge traffic, levels may drop again as harvest picks up. Higher barge rates are driving up shipping costs, which ultimately affect farmers. Combined with weak commodity prices, this has created record storage deficits across the Corn Belt—the worst since 2016—in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 🛶📈🇦🇷 Argentina Oilseed Strike Argentine oilseed workers began an indefinite strike over wage disputes, supported by multiple industry groups. The labor ministry has called a 15-day conciliation period, halting strike actions temporarily. This comes shortly after a brief pause on export taxes for many agricultural products. ⚖️✊🏛️ US Government Shutdown The US government shutdown entered its eighth day with no end in sight. President Trump warned that furloughed workers might not receive back pay, seen as pressure on lawmakers. The Senate will vote on competing funding bills after both failed to reach 60 votes on Monday. The administration also cautioned that prolonged shutdowns could lead to permanent layoffs rather than temporary furloughs. ⏳📉📈 Stay InformedSubscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on the latest news—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.💰 US Farm Aid UpdateThe Trump administration is set to announce a $10–15 billion farm aid package this week to help farmers hit by the trade war. 🌽🇺🇸 The ongoing government shutdown could make approval tricky, and existing funds may not be enough to cover the full payout. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the package would be unveiled soon. During Trump’s first term, over $23 billion was provided to offset trade losses, and even without the new aid, U.S. farmers are already set to receive more than $40 billion this year. 📈📊 US Crop ProgressThe USDA’s weekly crop report wasn’t released on Monday due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate the corn harvest is about 30% complete, up from 18% last week, while the soybean harvest is around 35%, compared with 19% a week earlier. Dry conditions last week helped farmers wrap up soybeans and move on to corn. This week’s forecast calls for mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, except in Ohio and Kentucky, where significant rainfall is expected. Temperatures are projected to stay above average. 🌽🌱🚢 US ExportsUS corn shipments reached 1.6 MMT (63M bushels) for the week ending October 2, hitting a marketing-year high and up 69% from last year. Soybean exports totaled 768,117 MT (28M bushels), up 26% from last week but down 53% from the same week last year, highlighting the absence of Chinese purchases. Wheat shipments came in at 505,096 MT (19M bushels), down 43% from the prior week but 38% above last year. 📦🌱 Brazilian PlantingSoybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly. AgRural reports 9% of the crop planted as of last Thursday, up from 3% the previous week and 4% last year—the second-fastest pace on record for this date. Brazil’s first corn crop is 40% planted, compared with 37% last year, marking the fastest start since 2012/2013. 🇧🇷🌾🤝 US-Brazil trade tensions may be easingAfter a 30-minute call on Monday, President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva agreed to meet soon. Discussions focused on economic relations, with Lula requesting the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on top officials. US tariffs, including a 50% levy, have hit key exports like coffee (down 70% to the US) and beef. ☕🥩🐄 New World Screwworm AlertA new case of New World screwworm was confirmed about 170 miles south of the US-Mexico border in Nuevo León, marking the state’s second detection in two weeks. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the case is isolated and unrelated to the previous one. The news has supported cattle futures, as the border is expected to remain closed, keeping feeder cattle supplies tight.📈 Stay InformedSubscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss f

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Farm Bankruptcies2:14 Bessent, Trade Talks, Farm Bailout5:16 "Debasement Trade"8:39 Brazil Update9:47 Shutdown, Rollins Interview🌾 Farm Bankruptcies RisingFarm bankruptcies have increased this year—93 filings in Q2, up from 88 in Q1 and 47 in Q4 2024. Although still low by historical standards, the trend has been upward since 2022. Corn prices have fallen roughly 50% and soybeans 40% since then, reflecting the broader ag downturn. High input costs, weak markets, and limited exports have all played a role.While USDA projects higher farm income this year, about three-quarters of the growth is expected to come from government payments.The first chart below (from Fortune Magazine) shows current bankruptcy trends, and the second chart extends back to 1986. Prior data isn’t available because Chapter 12 didn’t exist until 1986—a response to the 1980s farm crisis, when 200,000–300,000farms went under.🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade TalksTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the next round of U.S.–China negotiations—set for later this month in South Korea—could produce a breakthrough. President Trump and President Xi are expected to discuss soybean trade and ag exports.China has shifted more soybean purchases to South America amid the trade war, but Trump is expected to announce a new aid package for farmers this week to offset the impact.💰 Bitcoin Breaks New RecordBitcoin hit a record high of $125,689 on Sunday, surpassing its August peak. Equities strength and ETF inflows helped fuel the rally, while the government shutdown sparked safe-haven buying in what investors call a “debasement trade.”Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin—up in 9 of the past 10 years—and it’s now +31% YTD.🌱 Brazilian Soybean PlantingBrazilian soybean planting is off to a fast start—9.2% complete vs. 2.3% a year ago, per Patria Agronegocios. Consistent rainfall has helped, and farmers are expected to plant around 120 million acres this season.While Brazil has been slightly drier than normal lately, above-normal rainfall is forecast for the next two weeks—critical for strong emergence.🏛 Government Shutdown UpdateThe shutdown continues after the Senate failed to pass either party’s funding bill on Friday. Roughly half of USDA employees are furloughed, disrupting data collection and delaying key reports, including Export Sales and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders.The October 9 Crop Production and WASDE reports will likely be postponed. US Ag Secretary Rollins will not be available for our scheduled interview until the shutdown ends.📈 Stay InformedSubscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on farm bankruptcies and the U.S.–China trade talks—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Brian's 'Stache0:40 Another Farm Bailout7:35 Argentina Update9:36 Corteva Split11:34 Soybean/Corn Rally15:54 Yield Estimates17:17 Drought Update💰 Trump’s New Farmer Aid PlanPresident Trump is weighing a $10–$14 billion bailout for US farmers, likely funded by tariff revenues. Payments could start in the coming months, with soybean producers as the main beneficiaries since they’re expected to lose about $100 per acre this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says details may be announced as soon as Tuesday. For comparison, the 2018–2020 MFP program totaled $23 billion, with soybeans seeing the largest support ($1.65–$2.05/bu). Rough math suggests something around $10 billion could be realistic this time.🌍 US–China Soybean Trade & Argentina TensionsTrump is set to meet with Xi Jinping later this month to push for more Chinese soybean purchases. Any deal could affect the size of the aid program. Meanwhile, the US confirmed support for Argentina via a $20 billion swap line, not direct investment. Farmers are frustrated, as Argentina has recently undercut the US with large soybean sales to China.🌱 Corteva Breakup NewsCorteva will split into two separate companies:Seed unit → expanding beyond corn and soybeans into cotton and wheat.Pesticide unit → focusing on cost-cutting as Chinese generics gain ground.The move is planned for the second half of next year, but shares are already down 15% since September.📈 Soybean Futures RallySoybean futures gained for the second straight day, with the Nov25 contract up nearly 11 cents Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s rally. Optimism is tied directly to Trump’s announcement about the Xi meeting.🌽 Crop Outlook CutsS&P Global cut its forecasts:Corn yield → 185.5 bpa (down from 189.1)Corn production → 16.71 bil bu (vs. 16.77)Soybean yield → 53 bpa (vs. 53.8)Soybean production → 4.26 bil bu (vs. 4.31)🔥 USDA Drought Monitor UpdateImproved moisture helped Ohio, Kentucky, and parts of Indiana, but conditions worsened in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa.Current US drought coverage:Corn → 28%Soybeans → 37%Winter Wheat → 45%Spring Wheat → 13%Cattle → 24%👉 Stay tuned—the coming days could bring big announcements on farm aid and trade. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments so we can talk through it together.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 Trump vs. Xi on SoybeansPresident Trump announced he’ll confront China’s Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC summit over Beijing’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. The news sent soybean futures sharply higher—the biggest move since late August—before paring gains. Trump also floated a plan to use tariff revenues to fund fresh farmer aid, though the legality remains in question. Meanwhile, the U.S.–China tariff truce expires in November, and China has yet to book any new-crop U.S. soybeans.📉 USDA Report SuspendedThe October 9th WASDE and Crop Production reports are unlikely amid the government shutdown. USDA’s site confirms the reports are suspended until further notice, leaving traders without official supply, demand, and yield estimates during a critical time.💵 Dollar Drops AgainThe U.S. dollar weakened for the 4th straight session, its longest losing streak in a month, following soft payroll data and the shutdown. Perhaps most important to ag markets: the U.S. dollar has lost nearly 14% vs. the Brazilian real this year—keeping soybeans supported above $10.🌽 StoneX Crop UpdateU.S. corn yield cut to 185.9 bpa, but production still raised to 16.74B bu due to higher acreage.Soybean yield boosted to 53.9 bpa, production raised to 4.33B bu.Brazil’s soybean crop pegged at 178.6 mmt, up 5% from last year with record acreage.🍺 Ethanol Output SlipsU.S. ethanol production fell for the third straight week to 1.0M bpd. Stocks also declined, though margins remain strong across the Corn Belt at 20–60 cents positive.✅ Stay InformedMarkets are moving fast—don’t miss critical updates!👉 Subscribe, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share this with a fellow farmer.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans4:02 Grain Stocks9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets10:39 River Levels🇦🇷 Trump & Milei MeetingPresident Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉🌽 Corn Stocks ReportUSDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres.🌱 Soybeans & WheatSoy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾🏛️ Partial USDA ShutdownA government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty.🚢 Mississippi River IssuesHistoric low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 What Will Taiwan Buy?3:20 Grain Stocks Report Today4:33 Harvest Update8:24 Soybean Shipment Problem10:25 Better Demand for Russian Wheat11:40 Flash Sales🌎 Welcome back! Today’s focus: US–Taiwan trade talks, USDA’s Grain Stocks report, and fresh updates on harvest & exports.🇹🇼 US–Taiwan Trade SpotlightUSDA’s Luke Lindberg is in Taiwan this week for trade negotiations.Meetings include the Agribusiness Trade Mission and a roundtable with US ag reps.Taiwan is the 8th largest market for US ag exports; the US is its top supplier.Taiwan committed to $6.4B in US corn & soybeans over 4 years and $10B in total ag buys—but this is only in line with past purchases (~$3.8B last year).Current tariffs on Taiwanese exports to the US sit at 20%.📊 Grain Stocks Report (Sept 1)Corn stocks are expected to be down 24% YoY.Soybean stocks are estimated to be down 5.6%.Wheat stocks seen up 2.6%.Traders eye discrepancies between pre-report estimates and USDA’s prior carryout numbers.🌽 Crop Progress & ConditionsCorn: 66% good-to-excellent (best since 2018), 18% harvested (avg: 19%).Soybeans: 62% good-to-excellent, 19% harvested (avg: 20%).Winter Wheat: 34% planted (avg: 36%), the slowest pace since 2016.🚢 US Export InspectionsCorn: 1.5mmt (60M bu) → +10% WoW, +33% YoY.Soybeans: 594k mt (22M bu) → +5% WoW, -13% YoY.Wheat: 739k mt (27M bu) → -21% WoW, +34% YoY.🌾 Global Wheat WatchRussian wheat export prices rising for 2nd week.Exports down 29% YoY (Jul–Sep).Harvest nearly complete at ~87mmt. Forecast trimmed to 43.4mmt exports.📢 Flash Sales135,660mt corn → Mexico.110,668mt corn → Unknown (2025/26 delivery).

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Mainstream Media and Soybeans2:52 India Ethanol Possibilities4:52 China Soy Imports8:16 The Funds Hate Soybeans9:12 Grain Stocks Report10:37 Fast Brazil Soy Planting📰 Soybean Headlines EverywhereOver just the past 72 hours, mainstream outlets have been buzzing about U.S. soybeans—China’s absence from the U.S. market, farmer struggles, and Trump’s trade war have taken center stage. Coverage may have been sparked by Argentina’s recent “bailout” story and simultaneous soybean sales to China.🇮🇳 U.S.–India Trade StandoffTalks in Washington were described as “constructive” but ended without a deal. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India refuses. Instead, India offered concessions like U.S. corn purchases for ethanol. India currently produces about 2.5B gallons of ethanol (mostly from sugarcane byproducts) versus the U.S. at ~17B gallons. With E20 now hit, India could grow to 3.2–3.7B gallons within five years, though its gasoline use is still far below the U.S.🇨🇳 China’s Soybean ImportsUSDA’s Beijing attaché holds the import forecast at 106mmt—down slightly from last year. Even though U.S. beans are about 10% cheaper than Brazil’s, tariffs and politics keep them out. China has reportedly even rejected shipments disguised as non-U.S. origin.📊 Funds Go Net ShortCFTC data shows big speculators sold 16k corn contracts, 25k soybeans (swinging back net short), and 11k SRW wheat contracts. This marks the most bearish stance in six weeks.📈 Grain Stocks Report AheadUSDA will release September 1 stocks on Tuesday. Corn stocks are expected to be down sharply (-24% year-on-year), soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are closely watching for differences from USDA’s last carryout estimates.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting SurgeSoybean planting is racing ahead—4.2% complete vs. just 0.5% this time last year. That’s the fastest start ever, supported by steady rains and ideal conditions.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGGFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.👨‍🌾 Trump’s Farmer Aid PlanPresident Trump says tariff revenue will be used to fund a new aid package for farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted the plan may resemble relief programs from Trump’s first term. Trump admitted farmers face short-term struggles but predicted long-term gains from tariffs.🚢 China Buys Argentine SoybeansChina purchased ~40 cargoes (2.6mmt / 96 mil bu) of soybeans from Argentina in just two days after export taxes were lifted. Most shipments are set for Nov–Dec, when the US typically supplies China. So far, China hasn’t bought a single US soybean this marketing year—last year they bought 22.5mmt. Can other buyers replace lost Chinese demand?⚖️ DOJ & USDA Investigate Farm CostsThe DOJ will team with USDA to review rising input costs like fertilizer and equipment, aiming to protect farmers from unfair pricing. Rollins also clarified there are no plans for beef producer payments, warning that government involvement distorts markets.📊 Upcoming Grain Stocks ReportUSDA’s Sept. 1 stocks report is due Tuesday. Estimates suggest corn stocks are down 24% year-over-year, soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are watching how estimates compare with USDA’s recent old-crop carryout numbers.🌍 Export Sales UpdateCorn: 1.9mmt (76 mil bu), +56% from last week. Mexico led buying.Soybeans: 724,500mt (27 mil bu), -22% from last week. Egypt top buyer.Wheat: 539,800mt (20 mil bu), +43% from last week. Philippines led.🔥 Drought ConditionsLatest USDA drought monitor shows:Corn: 26% affectedSoybeans: 37%Winter Wheat: 45%Spring Wheat: 13%Cattle: 24%Drought persists in Missouri, Ohio, and Kentucky, while High Plains states saw improvement.📢 Flash SalesUS exporters sold:101,400mt soybean meal to Guatemala (2025/26)312,956mt corn to Mexico (2025/26)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 "Make Argentina Great Again"5:30 China Talks Soybeans6:12 Production Cost Task Force9:03 Day Trading is Stupid11:23 Ethanol Production12:23 Flash Sales🇺🇸💰 US to Provide $20B Swap Line to ArgentinaWashington is stepping in with a $20 billion swap line and potential bond purchases to help stabilize Argentina’s peso ahead of midterms. The peso and Argentine markets rallied on the news, but economists warn that true stability will require deeper reforms. 🌾 Argentina Export Taxes ReturnAfter just two days, Argentina hit its $7B cap on tax-free grain and soybean exports. The government has now reinstated the suspended export tax. China bought at least 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the window.🎉 NY Gala & Milei RecognitionUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised President Javier Milei at a gala in New York, saying Milei is working to “make Argentina great again.”🇨🇳 China Pressures US on TariffsChina’s commerce ministry urged the US to drop tariffs if it wants to expand soybean trade. Despite meetings with US Midwest leaders, China has yet to book US beans this marketing year.🌽 Corn Growers Task ForceThe National Corn Growers Association launched a task force to address farm profitability and rising costs. Farmers are now facing their third year of negative returns, with a fourth expected in 2026. 📈 Day Trading Rule ChangeRegulators plan to scrap the $25,000 minimum for pattern day trading. The new intraday margin rule will tie buying power to positions instead. Applies only to equities, not commodities. 🍶 Ethanol UpdateUS ethanol output dropped to 1.02M bpd last week, down 2.9% on the week. Stocks are high, but margins remain positive across the Corn Belt. Charts below.🚢 USDA Flash SalesExporters reported fresh sales of soybean meal to Guatemala and corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe!0:56 Argentina Update3:31 Argentine Crushers Aren't Happy5:40 Secret Meeting? US/China7:00 Trump at UN - Russia/Ukraine9:36 USDA Cattle Plan11:25 EU Deforestation Law12:32 Fed Problems🌱 China Buys Argentine SoybeansChina jumped on Argentina’s suspension of its 26% soybean export tax and purchased 10–15 cargoes for November delivery. Reports now suggest total purchases could be 20 cargoes this week alone. Normally, this business would have gone to the US, but the trade war has shifted flows. Argentina’s crushers warn that local supply is tightening, idle crushing capacity is rising, and jobs are being lost.📈 Grain Market ReactionCorn futures gained nearly 5 cents with Dec25 closing near $4.26. Soybeans edged higher to $10.12, while both Kansas City and Chicago wheat also finished stronger. Optimism tied to possible US-China trade progress provided a lift.🤝 US-China MeetingA Chinese trade envoy, Li Chenggang, met with US Midwest leaders in Beijing on Monday. Details are thin, but the meeting was confirmed by China’s Ministry of Commerce. It fueled fresh hopes for trade progress even as China avoids US soybeans.🇺🇸 Trump’s Ukraine ShiftAt the UN, Trump surprised leaders by saying Ukraine could win back land from Russia, a reversal from his earlier push for quick peace talks. This marks a potential shift in US policy, signaling stronger backing for Kyiv.🐂 USDA Cattle Herd PlanThe USDA says it will soon launch a plan to help rebuild the US cattle herd, mentioned in a statement on screwworm control. No details yet, but the program could reshape beef supplies and pricing.🌳 EU Deforestation Law DelayEurope has postponed its anti-deforestation law again. The rules would restrict imports of soybeans, beef, and more. Admin hurdles and IT issues caused the delay, but costs could ripple across the supply chain once implemented.💵 US Economy UpdateFed Chair Powell warned of upside inflation risks and downside jobs risk, leaving October’s rate decision uncertain. Tariffs are pushing prices higher, while labor supply shrinks under tighter immigration enforcement.🌽 Flash Corn SaleUSDA reported a 5 million bushel corn sale to Mexico. Most will ship in 2025/26, with the rest in 2026/27.👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed helps you stay ahead in these fast-moving markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Argentina News6:56 Crop Conditions11:05 Brazil Update12:04 Grain Shipments13:00 Cattle Rally🌎 Argentina Suspends Export TaxesArgentina halted export taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat, and more in a bid to boost sales and stabilize the peso. The suspension runs through October or until $7B in exports are declared. Analysts warn a wave of selling could trigger a supply glut. Argentina is a top corn exporter and the world’s largest shipper of soybean meal and oil.💵 US Steps InTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is ready to use all necessary measures to help Argentina avoid another financial crisis after a sharp peso sell-off.🌱 US Crop Conditions & HarvestCorn: 66% good/excellent, the highest since 2018 for this week. 11% harvested.Soybeans: 61% good/excellent, 9% harvested.Winter wheat planting: 20% complete, the slowest since 2021.Spring wheat harvest: 96% complete.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting UpdateSoybeans: 0.9% planted, matching last year. Projected record 177.7 MMT crop.First corn crop: 25% planted, just behind last year.🚢 Export ShipmentsCorn: 1.4 MMT inspected, up 16% vs. last year.Soybeans: 484k MT, sharply lower from last week.Wheat: 854k MT, stronger than expected.🐂 Cattle Futures SurgeA New World screwworm case near the US-Mexico border pushed live and feeder cattle higher, with deferred feeders locking limit-up. Imports from Mexico remain restricted, tightening US supply.📢 Flash Corn SaleUS exporters sold 320k MT of corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump/Xi Call1:59 Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout3:41 H-1B Visa Plan6:42 2026 Acres8:20 China Soy Imports9:59 The Funds10:47 Flash Sale11:11 Cattle on Feed🌎 Trump & Xi Set to MeetPresident Trump will meet with Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea after a two-hour call on Friday. The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and TikTok. Trump called the talks “productive” and plans to visit China early next year. Xi will visit the US later. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic on a trade deal. However, no mention of soybeans hurt US prices Friday, as China has yet to buy any beans this marketing year.💰 Farm Aid on the TableThe administration may use tariff revenue to fund a new bailout for US farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested an announcement could come soon. Direct government payments are already expected to reach a five-year high near $41B. The new package could resemble Trump’s $23B farm aid program from 2019.🛂 Immigration OverhaulTrump unveiled a sweeping immigration plan, including a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas (up from ~$5,250). Renewals are not affected. The move is meant to encourage hiring of US workers, but critics warn it could hurt smaller firms and AI competitiveness. A new “gold card” residency program will also cost $1M per individual or $2M per business sponsor. Trump claims the measures will generate “hundreds of billions” to reduce debt. This could be significant for farmers relying on H-1B labor.🌽 Crop Outlook ShiftsS&P Global projects corn acres down 4.3% next year to 94.5M, while soybean acres rise 3.6% to 84M. Wheat acres are expected at 44.6M, down 1.8%. Despite S&P’s view, farm budgets and the corn/soybean ratio currently still favor corn. Ag View Solutions estimates 2026 costs: corn at $4.61/bu vs. a $4.60 Dec26 board price; soybeans at $11.66/bu vs. a $10.66 Nov26 price.🇨🇳 China’s Soybean AppetiteChina imported a record 10.5mmt of soybeans in August, 85% from Brazil. US soybean exports to China are up 31% YTD, but traders think China is mostly uncovered for Nov–Jan, the key US window. With China using ~11mmt/month, the question is whether they’ll rely on Brazil or risk drawing down stocks.📊 Money Flow & SalesCFTC data shows funds trimmed net shorts:Corn: net short 81k (smallest since May)Soybeans: net buyers of 14kSRW wheat: net buyers of 7kUSDA confirmed a flash sale of 206,460mt corn to unknown buyers. 🐂 Cattle on FeedAs of Sept 1:11.1M head on feed (99% of year ago)Placements: 1.8M (below expectations, -10% y/y)Marketings: 1.6M (-14% y/y)With the cow herd at a 70-year low and no Mexican imports, supplies remain tight—another bullish factor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Great Hair1:03 Vessel Fees3:28 Corn/Soy Action7:27 Export Sales10:38 CONAB12:12 Corn Belt Drought and Yields🌎 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!Today we’re breaking down new US ship fees on Chinese vessels, grain market moves, export sales, and fresh drought data. Let’s dive in 👇🚢 US Ship Fees & Grain ImpactThe US will impose new fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships starting October 14.Ships both built and operated by Chinese companies will face the highest costs.Foreign-operated ships built in China will pay lower fees.Bulk carriers like Panamax vessels (65,000–80,000 DWT)—which move most grain exports—are exempt, after pushback from farm groups earlier this year.👉 Grain exports are unlikely to see major disruption.📉 Grain FuturesCorn (Dec25) slipped to $4.24/bu.Soybeans (Nov25) dropped to $10.38/bu.Wheat followed lower.Weakness tied to harvest progress, a stronger US dollar, and softer biofuel demand.📦 Export Sales UpdateCorn: 1.2 mmt (48 mbu), up 128% vs last week. Mexico led for 4th week in a row.Soybeans: 923k mt (34 mbu), up 71%. Egypt the top buyer. Still no China purchases yet.Wheat: 377k mt (14 mbu), near low end of expectations. Philippines the largest buyer.🇧🇷 Brazil’s Record Crop OutlookSoybeans: 177.7 mmt (+3.6%), acreage up 3.7%, exports up 5.1% to 112.1 mmt.Corn: 138.3 mmt, exports up 16% to 46.5 mmt.🌾 Drought MonitorCorn Belt drought worsening: 37% affected, up 17% from last week.Extreme drought in eastern Ohio & SE Missouri.High Plains saw slight improvement in ND, SD, and KS.USDA drought data shows:Corn: 25%Soybeans: 36%Winter Wheat: 44%Spring Wheat: 13%Cattle: 23%🚨 Flash Sale to MexicoUS sold 110,000 mt (4 mbu) corn for 2025/26 delivery. Corn sales are now running 68% above last year’s pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Farm Bailout - How Will it Look?4:02 Fed Rate Cut5:42 Bearish Wheat Headlines8:23 Canada Production9:34 Ethanol Production🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering farm aid, the Fed’s rate cut, and big moves in global wheat and canola markets.💵 Farm Aid PushRepublican lawmakers urge Trump administration to deliver new farmer paymentsUSDA weighing a package similar to the $23B MFP programs of 2018–19ECAP already paying out $10B this year🏦 Federal Reserve MovesFed cuts rates for the first time since DecemberNew range: 4%–4.25%Labor market weakness driving the shiftExpectations for two more cuts this year🌍 Global Wheat & CanolaRussia exploring subsidies to boost sluggish wheat exportsIndia’s wheat stocks at 4-year highsCanada: biggest wheat crop since 2013, biggest canola crop since 2018⛽ Ethanol UpdateUS ethanol production dips 4.5% week over weekStocks at 22.6M barrels, down nearly 5% from last yearMargins remain positive across the Corn Belt

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into big moves in the currency, grain, gold, and policy worlds—and what they mean for agriculture and global markets.💵 US Dollar WeaknessThe US dollar tumbled to multi-year lows as markets brace for a potential Fed rate cut. A weaker dollar is giving commodities a lift, but stronger-than-expected retail sales could temper the Fed’s dovish tone. See charts on the US Dollar Index, USD/BRL, and Bloomberg Commodity Index.🌏 Trade & TariffsTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled fresh US-China trade talks are coming. If no deal is reached, President Trump’s tariffs (34% baseline, up to 60% effective) will take effect November 10. Last year’s $300B trade deficit with China is expected to shrink by 30% this year. Notably, China has yet to purchase US soybeans this marketing year.🌽🌱🌾 Grain Futures RallyCorn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher Tuesday:Corn near $4.30Soybeans near $10.50Wheat higher for the 4th straight sessionDrivers: weak USD, smaller crop worries, and optimism over export demand.🧪 Fertilizer Research ActSenators Grassley, Baldwin, and Ernst reintroduced bipartisan legislation directing USDA to study fertilizer pricing and competition. Fertilizer now accounts for ~36% of corn farmers’ costs. The bill has backing from NCGA and ASA.🥇 Gold at Record HighsGold surged past $3,700/oz—its strongest run since 1979. Hedge funds and ETFs are piling in, with stagflation and global instability adding fuel. ⛽ Biofuel Policy UpdatesThe EPA is weighing proposals to reallocate waived blending requirements from the Small Refinery Exemption program. Options:50% reallocation (2023–2025)100% reallocation (2026–2027)Public comment runs through October 31.👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop a comment with your take on the Fed’s next move, and hit the bell 🔔 so you never miss a market shift!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Payments4:12 US/China Talks5:45 Brazil Soy Planting Starts8:17 Crop Progress/Conditions10:13 NOPA Soy Crush11:19 Tyson and High-Fructose Corn Syrup13:26 Grain Shipments are Strong14:31 Flash Sale🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets.💰 USDA Aid & Farm SupportUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10B—or higher.🌍 Trade & China UpdatePresident Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were “very good,” China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges.🌱 Brazil Planting & ProductionBrazilian farmers are just starting soybean planting—0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress.🌽 US Crop Progress & ConditionsCorn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested.Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvested—slightly behind LY but ahead of avg.Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%.🏭 Crush & ProcessingNOPA August crush: 189.81M bu—record for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, the lowest since Dec 2024.🍗 Tyson & Corn SyrupTyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tyson’s feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy.🚢 Exports & SalesUS corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu of corn to unknown buyers.👉 Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 USDA and Corn Rally6:10 The Funds8:26 US/China Talks to Resume9:39 USDA Reporting Problems11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & SoybeansUS corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%. 📉 Funds Add to ShortsCFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:Corn: -4k contractsSoybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)SRW Wheat: -10k contracts🤝 US–China Trade TalksTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.🇨🇳 Export Sales TwistLast week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.🛢 Soybean Oil SurpriseUSDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Building Drought6:13 USDA Preview9:41 Export Sales12:21 Brazil's Crop Report14:20 Inflation is Up🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇🌦 Weather & Drought MonitorUSDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.Corn: 13% affectedSoybeans: 22%Winter Wheat: 38%Spring Wheat: 13%Cattle: 18%📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/diseaseUS ending stocks seen slightly lowerGlobal corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up🚢 Export SalesUS corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyerSoybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyerWheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)Conab raised estimates again:Corn: record 139.7 mmtSoybeans: record 171.5 mmtSoy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by ChinaBrazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.📈 Economy & CPIUS consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:49 USDA Preview3:38 Argentina Situation7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth12:15 Ethanol Production🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewThe USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.🇦🇷 Argentina OutlookRosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US SoybeansChina booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.⛽ Biofuels & Policy UncertaintyTrump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.🍶 Ethanol Production & MarginsUS ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.👉Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and leave a comment with your thoughts on tomorrow’s report.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Ag Economy6:57 Soybean Hit Piece9:58 SREs11:15 Grain Standards Act12:13 Cattle Selloff14:03 BLS Data (Jobs)💰 Ag Economy CrisisAgWeb reports farmers nationwide are facing collapsing margins.At a September 2 meeting in Arkansas, 400+ farmers called bailouts ineffective and skewed toward corporate players.Monopolistic control in seed, fertilizer, and chemical markets is trapping farmers while corporations profit.Bankruptcy risks are spiking, with 25–40% of farms in some regions projected to fail.Leaders demand reforms: antitrust enforcement, merger freezes, lobbying limits, and greater market diversification.🌱 Soybean DisasterChina still hasn’t purchased a single US soybean this marketing year.Typically, China takes more than 25% of US soybean exports.Ongoing trade tensions push China toward Brazil.Prices are now below production costs—half a million American farmers are at risk.Agriculture supports nearly 19% of US GDP and 1M+ jobs.Industry leaders are calling for immediate trade resolutions.⚡ Biofuels BattleSenators from oil-producing states introduced the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025.Would block the EPA from reallocating blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones.Biofuel groups argue this rewards small refineries and weakens renewable fuel policy.A reallocation of exemptions would be devastating to the ethanol industry.🌾 Grain Standards ActThe House passed the US Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025.Extends the inspection and grading system through 2030.Pushes USDA toward tech upgrades for better accuracy.Ensures fair pricing for farmers and buyer confidence abroad.The Senate must approve before the end of September to avoid $70M/day losses.🥩 Cattle Market CorrectionCattle futures saw the steepest correction since June.Feeder cattle limit down across nearly all contracts.Driven by payroll data revisions showing a weaker consumer outlook.Trump’s weekend comments on falling beef prices added pressure.📉 Jobs Data ShockBLS is expected to revise payrolls lower by 911,000 jobs.Cuts average monthly growth nearly in half from previous reports.Weak labor data strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week.Final revisions are due early 2026.👉Don’t miss tomorrow’s update—hit subscribe, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share this with a fellow farmer or market watcher. Staying informed is critical in times like these!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Imports5:26 Crop Progress9:21 Brazil Planting Begins10:57 Russia Wheat11:54 Grain Shipments🌎 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down key moves in global grain markets.📊 China Soybean DemandChina ramped up soybean purchases in August, bringing in a record 12.3mmt for the month. Stockpiles now sit at 6.8mmt—the highest since March. While the US export window is just opening, China continues to rely heavily on Brazil amid the ongoing US-China trade war.🌽 US Corn & Soy ConditionsCorn ratings slipped slightly, with 68% good/excellent vs. 69% last week, still the best since 2018. 4% of the crop is harvested vs. 3% average. Soybean ratings dipped to 64% g/e, the lowest of the year. 21% of beans are dropping leaves—a touch ahead of average.🌾 Wheat UpdateSpring wheat harvest is 85% complete, nearly in line with average. Winter wheat planting is just getting started at 5%, steady with last year.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting PaceAgRural reports 12% of first corn crop planted, behind last year’s 15%. Soybean planting has just begun at 0.2%. USDA projects 131mmt corn and 175mmt soybeans for Brazil this season.🇷🇺 Russia’s Bigger Wheat CropSovecon lifted its wheat estimate to 86.1mmt, matching IKAR’s latest call. Black Sea production strength continues to weigh on global wheat prices.🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 1.4mmt (57m bu)—up 70% vs. last year 📈Soybeans: 452k mt (17m bu)—+24% y/yWheat: 425k mt (16m bu)—down sharply w/wDon’t forget to subscribe, drop a 👍, and share your thoughts in the comments. Your support helps keep this channel going!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Freeze1:35 Unknown Buys Soybeans2:43 Export Sales8:35 Monster Corn Yield Estimate9:56 The Funds10:59 Job Growth Slows🌽🌱 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down weekend weather risks, fresh export sales, and market reaction.❄️ Weekend Freeze EventSome US corn and soybean areas saw freezing temps early Sunday morning across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Nebraska. The extent of crop damage is still unclear, but markets are shrugging it off with lackluster trade to start the week. See maps below, and please share any local details you have—past/observed weather info is much harder to pin down than forecasts!🚢 Export Sales UpdateUSDA reported two Friday flash sales: 327,650mt (12mil bu) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 25/26 delivery.Accumulated sales are down 32% YoY, with “Unknown” now 41% of all new-crop soybean export sales.China still hasn’t booked a single bushel for 25/26. While some “Unknown” could be China, a weak Northern Plains basis suggests no major PNW program yet.New crop corn sales hit 2.1mmt (83mil bu), near the high end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer.Soybean sales (818,500mt) were down 40% WoW; wheat sales (313,000mt) missed expectations, with Nigeria as the top buyer. See charts below.🌾 Crop EstimatesS&P Global pegs yields at 189.1bpa for corn (16.77bbu) and 53.8bpa for soybeans (4.31 bbu)—record-large crops. These numbers are slightly above USDA’s latest estimates but higher than StoneX’s more cautious outlook. USDA updates its official estimates this Friday.📊 Fund PositioningCFTC data shows:Funds trimmed corn shorts again, buying 16k contracts. Net short now 95k, the smallest since May.Funds sold 8k soybean contracts and 417 SRW wheat contracts.💼 Macro HeadlinesUS job growth slowed in August with just +22,000 jobs (vs. 75k expected). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. June was revised to a loss of 13k jobs—the first monthly decline since 2020. Analysts see this soft labor market reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/Japan Deal5:17 Rollins Comments7:53 Corn/Soybean Charts10:37 StoneX Estimates14:23 Drought Expands15:53 Biofuel Imports🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵 Trump–Japan Trade DealTrump signed a deal with Japan that slaps a 15% tariff on Japanese imports.Tokyo agreed to a $550B U.S. investment fund—Trump says he can use it “however he wants,” but no details yet.Japan also pledged $8B annually in U.S. ag purchases (corn, soybeans).For comparison: the 2020 U.S.–China “Phase One” deal had ~$40B/year in ag buys.🌽🌱 Ag Market ImpactJapan bought 512M bushels of U.S. corn in the 24/25 marketing year—2nd only to Mexico.Last season: $2.8B corn and $998M soybeans from the U.S.This new pledge could be a major boost for U.S. farmers.📉 StoneX Crop OutlookCorn yield cut to 186.9 bpa (down from 188.1), but acreage boost lifts production to 16.58B bu.Soybean yield trimmed to 53.2 bpa with production lowered to 4.26B bu.The ongoing survey methodology dates back to 1993.🌦️ USDA Drought UpdateCorn Belt drought expands slightly: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, plus parts of Iowa & Minnesota.Current drought coverage: Corn 9%, Soybeans 16%, Winter Wheat 34%, Spring Wheat 13%, Cattle 18%.Some relief in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with scattered showers.🛢️🌱 Biofuels & Policy ShiftU.S. biodiesel imports down 94%; renewable diesel imports down 85% (lowest since 2012).Cause: the new 45Z tax credit only applies to domestic biofuels (replacing the old $1/gal blender’s credit).Positive for U.S. soybean oil & ethanol — less foreign competition ahead.📢 Stay InformedBig changes are underway in trade, policy, and farm markets. Don’t miss a beat — hit subscribe and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 USDA's Dire Forecast4:10 Trump Comments7:06 Corn/Soybean Selloff9:22 Polymarket and CFTC10:59 SAF Future Looks Poor12:20 Flash Sale🌾 Farm Economy & ReceiptsUSDA projects US crop receipts to decline in 2025, led by weaker returns for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Total receipts are expected at $236.6B, down 2.5% from 2024. Meanwhile, direct government payments are set to surge 300% to $40.5B. On the livestock side, cattle receipts are forecast up nearly 16%, while hogs climb almost 10%.🌍 Trump vs. China, Russia & North KoreaPresident Trump accused China of conspiring with Russia and North Korea following their high-profile military parade in Beijing. Xi, Putin, and Kim stood together at the event, but Trump downplayed the threat—reminding supporters that “China needs us more than we need them.”📉 Corn & Soybeans SlideCorn and soybean futures pulled back midweek after recent rallies. Dec25 corn closed at $4.18, down 5 cents, while Nov25 soybeans slipped nearly 10 cents to $10.32. Losses came despite USDA reporting weaker crop condition ratings.💻 Crypto & Prediction MarketsPolymarket scored a major win with CFTC approval to legally operate in the US. The no-action letter exempts the platform from certain costly reporting requirements, clearing the way for more growth in prediction markets.🛢️ Shell Cancels Biofuels ProjectShell announced it will not restart construction of its massive Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak demand and global oversupply. This follows similar moves by BP and even Southwest Airlines, raising questions about the future of SAF and corn ethanol’s role in aviation fuel.🚢 Soybean Meal Flash SaleUS exporters sold 185,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines. Total flash sales for this marketing year now stand at 455,000mt.✅ Stay informed with daily updates on ag markets, policy, and global news. Don’t forget to subscribe and drop a comment with your thoughts below!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn and Soybean Problems5:47 Farmer Sentiment9:24 Soybean Ratings Decline11:12 Trump Appeal12:02 Wheat is Broken13:56 Soybean Shipping Problems Imminent🌽📉 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into a BIG Wall Street Journal feature on U.S. corn & soybean production—and what it means for farmers, markets, and global trade.📊 Production & OversupplyAdvances in tech and policy have fueled massive yields. Despite planting fewer acres in 2024 than 100 years ago, U.S. farmers produced 729% more corn. The downside? Oversupply has dragged prices lower and cut into profitability.🌍 Global Trade ShiftsFor decades, U.S. farmers relied on expanding demand overseas. But tariffs, trade disputes, and shifting policy have shut doors. Meanwhile, Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s top corn & soybean exporter, thanks to abundant farmland and modern logistics.😟 Farmer SentimentPurdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer fell for the third straight month. Farmers cite higher input costs, rising loan concerns, and weaker future expectations.🌱 Crop ConditionsSoybeans dropped to 65% good-to-excellent, the lowest rating of the year so far. Corn slipped too but still holds one of the best ratings in the past decade. Harvest is quickly approaching, with maturity advancing faster than average.⚖️ Policy & TariffsPresident Trump is pushing for a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs after a federal court deemed parts of his previous tariffs illegal. The outcome could reshape global trade flows.🌾 Wheat & ExportsRussia’s wheat export outlook keeps climbing, while U.S. wheat export sales are the best in 10 years for this point in the season. Corn and soybean shipments also impressed, staying near the high end of expectations.💬Drop your thoughts in the comments—are U.S. farmers falling behind Brazil for good?📌Don’t forget to subscribe for daily grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽📈 Corn & Soybean Futures RallyCorn and soybean futures ended Friday on a strong note! The Dec25 corn contract jumped about 10 cents to $4.20/bu—its best daily move since early July—while Nov25 soybeans gained 7 cents to $10.55/bu. Traders cited strong global demand, disease worries in the Corn Belt (tar spot & southern rust), and fresh chatter about Chinese buying. 🌏🇨🇳🌡️❄️ Weather WatchFrost risk later this week in Minnesota & Wisconsin 🌬️🥶Overnight GFS points to lows in the mid-30s Thursday & SaturdayAugust went down as one of the driest in 133 years for parts of OH, KY, IN, IL, MO & TN. 🌾☀️📜⚖️ Tariffs & TradeA federal appeals court struck down a large chunk of Trump’s tariffs, ruling he overstepped authority under IEEPA. The decision could force repayment of billions in duties and calls into question past trade deals. Appeals are already in motion, with a Supreme Court fight likely. 🇺🇸⚖️Meanwhile, China’s envoy Li Chenggang met with US officials in DC. No details released, but China is boosting soybean imports from Argentina & Uruguay—still no official new-crop US purchases. 🚢🌎🚜💰 Farm Progress Show RecapFarmers are under pressure: weak markets, rising input costs, sluggish soybean exports. Corn export sales remain solid, but soybeans lag badly without Chinese demand. Fertilizer & equipment costs continue to squeeze margins. Josh Linville joins today’s premium video to break down fertilizer prices. 🌱💸📊📉 Fund Flows (CFTC Data)Funds bought 4k corn, 21k soybeans & 17k SRW wheat contractsNet long in soybeans now largest since late June 🌟🇧🇷🌽 Brazil Crop UpdateAgRural reports 7% of first-crop corn was planted as of last Thursday, up 4% from the prior week. USDA projects 131 mmt this season. Hot & dry weather is still a factor, but rains are forecast next week to aid planting. 🌦️✅ Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop your thoughts in the comments!Staying informed keeps you ahead of the markets. 📊🌎

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 How Much Does This Suck?1:20 Fertilizer Prices and Tariffs6:23 US/China Meeting10:04 Export Sales12:18 Declining River Levels15:09 Drought and Yield Potential💸 Fertilizer Costs & TariffsTight supplies and tariffs have pushed fertilizer prices to their highest level relative to grain and oilseed futures since 2016. While Canadian potash is tariff-free under USMCA, imports from countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia face added costs. Senator Chuck Grassley says cutting tariffs would bring quick relief, while the Trump administration is pushing to label potash a critical mineral to boost domestic production. 📈 🌏 China Trade TalksChinese trade envoy Li Chenggang is in Washington for meetings with US trade and Treasury officials. While not part of formal negotiations, this visit follows his Canada trip and signals continued dialogue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "everything is on the table," but Beijing has yet to book new-crop US soybeans despite Trump’s push earlier this month. 🇨🇳🇺🇸📊 Export Sales Update• Corn: 2.1mmt (82m bu), down from last week but still strong. Mexico the top buyer.• Soybeans: 1.4mmt (50m bu), above expectations — "unknown" buyers lead the way.• Wheat: 579,800mt (21m bu), steady with recent trends. Vietnam the biggest buyer.🌊 Mississippi River WoesRiver levels at Memphis are forecast to fall 3–4 feet below normal by mid-month, raising fears of another costly harvest shipping season. Limited rainfall in the Ohio River Valley is adding pressure. 🚢 🌦 Drought MonitorUSDA reports drought expansion across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Some relief in the High Plains, while Michigan saw improvements.Corn 🌽: 5% in droughtSoybeans 🌱: 11%Winter Wheat 🌾: 31%Spring Wheat 🌾: 13%Cattle 🐄: 15%👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe to stay informed on the latest in ag markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 More Farm Aid?5:05 More China Soybean News9:14 Vietnam Ethanol10:58 Mexico/China11:53 S&P Record High🚜 USDA “Bridge” Policy in the WorksDeputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden says USDA is exploring a short-term “bridge” policy to help farmers weather low crop prices. With ARC, PLC, and enhanced crop insurance not set to kick in until 2026, the CCC fund (to be replenished in November) could provide relief—similar to past trade war payments.🌍 China Still Snubbing US SoybeansDespite a ~20% premium, China continues to lean on Brazil’s soybeans while avoiding US new-crop supplies. The nation is also importing more Argentine meal and cutting feed usage. Traders are debating whether China can cover a 20–25mmt gap if they keep sidelining US beans.🇻🇳 Vietnam Goes All-In on E10Vietnam will fully shift to E10 gasoline in 2026, cutting its ethanol import tariff and pledging $2B in additional US ag imports. With domestic plants only covering ~40% of demand, US corn & ethanol could see a boost.🍶 US Ethanol SnapshotWeekly ethanol output slipped to 1.07mbpd, while stocks dropped to the lowest of the year at 22.5m barrels. Margins remain strong thanks to cheap corn.🇲🇽 Mexico Joins the Tariff GameMexico plans tariffs on Chinese goods as part of its 2026 budget—aligning with Trump’s request to counter cheap imports. This could reshape North American trade ahead of next year’s USMCA review.📈 Wall Street at Record HighsThe S&P 500 closed at a record, powered by Nvidia’s blowout earnings and ongoing AI demand. Dow and Nasdaq also posted gains.💬 What do you think—will USDA step in with real aid, or will low prices linger into 2026? Drop your thoughts in the comments!👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss an update.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 "Flash Drought"3:50 Price Action and Charts5:24 US/China Trade Talks8:59 Renewable Investments10:21 Russia's Wheat Crop Keeps Getting Bigger🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest on crop weather, grain markets, trade talks, energy policy, and global wheat supplies.☀️ Weather & CropsDryness is intensifying across the southern & eastern Corn Belt and the Delta. Ohio is experiencing its driest August in 133 years. Flash drought concerns are building in parts of southern IL, MO, western TN, AR, and LA. Forecasts show very little rain ahead, keeping stress high for corn & soybeans. 🌵📉 Grain MarketsCorn futures slipped back toward $4.10, soybeans ticked higher to $10.50, and wheat was mixed. Traders are balancing record crop expectations against the risk of weather stress. Holiday-weekend trade + month-end positioning = extra volatility. 📊🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade TalksTalks resume in Washington, D.C. this week with Li Chenggang meeting U.S. trade & Treasury officials. Soybeans are front and center—but China wants tariff relief tied to fentanyl trade before making major purchases. Farmers are watching closely for export sales. 🚢⚡ Renewable EnergyU.S. renewable investments fell 36% in the first half of the year. Wind & solar projects dropped sharply after Trump’s subsidy rollbacks. Last week, he said his administration will no longer approve new wind & solar projects. Big shakeup for the energy sector. 🌬️☀️🌾 Russia Wheat OutlookConsultancy IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast to 86mmt and boosted export expectations to 43mmt. Despite a slight rebound, Chicago wheat remains near four-year lows, with Russia set to dominate exports again in 25/26. 🌍👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop your thoughts in the comments, and share with a fellow farmer or trader. Staying informed = staying ahead!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 The Biggest / The Largest1:28 North Dakota Soybean Mess5:06 WSJ Farm Piece7:59 Brazil Corn Update9:22 Crop Ratings12:26 Grain Shipments🌎 China Trade War Pressures SoybeansThe ongoing trade war with China continues to squeeze US soybean demand and crush basis levels. 🚢 With no Chinese buying, Northern Plains farmers face cash bids under $9/bu as PNW export demand dries up. Elevators are slashing bids, leaving some of the weakest basis since 2018.📉 Market Stress & Farmer StrugglesThe Wall Street Journal highlights farmer challenges: record crops 🌽🌱 but poor prices and rising costs mean profits are slim to none. Analysts warn breakeven corn prices could rise toward $4.66–$4.94/bu next year. Relief may hinge on the new Farm Bill or the $59B farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill.🇧🇷 Brazil Corn UpdateBrazil’s second corn harvest is 98% complete, with slow farmer selling and strong domestic demand. Early planting of next year’s crop is slightly behind schedule, but forecasts call for favorable rains. US corn remains cheaper by $9/ton on the global market, keeping exports competitive.🌽 US Crop ConditionsCorn: 71% good/excellent 👍 (2nd best in 10 years)Soybeans: 69% good/excellent 🌱 (best since 2020)Spring wheat: 49% good/excellent, well below average ❌Winter wheat harvest: 98% complete ✅🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 51M bu (+39% YoY)Soybeans: 14M bu (down from last week)Wheat: 35M bu (+71% YoY)👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop a comment with your take on the markets. 💬👊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Yield Clash3:59 Biofuel Waivers5:48 China Rhetoric9:05 The Funds are Buying?9:51 Powell Jackson Hole10:52 Cattle on Feed12:25 Flash Sales🌽🚜 Big Week in Ag Markets!✨ Pro Farmer wrapped up its crop tour with national yield estimates. Corn came in at 182.7 bpa (16.2B bu) vs USDA’s 188.8 bpa (16.7B bu), while soybeans were pegged at 53 bpa (4.2B bu) vs USDA’s 53.6 bpa (4.3B bu). Scouts saw huge variability—strong crops in the west but dryness and disease pressure in the east. 📊🌱⚡ Biofuel Shock: EPA granted 63 full & 77 partial refinery waivers, sending soybean oil futures up nearly 4%. Still no clarity on reallocation for big refiners until 2023—keeping biofuel markets on edge. ⛽🌻🇨🇳 Trade Tensions: China says U.S. protectionism is hurting farm trade. With U.S. ag exports to China cut by more than half this year, soybeans are feeling the brunt. Beijing calls farmland purchase limits “political,” while U.S. lawmakers say it’s about security. 🌎⚖️📉 Fund Moves: CFTC data showed money managers trimming corn shorts—the smallest since May. Funds were net buyers of 28k corn & 24k soybeans but net sellers of SRW wheat. 💼📊💵 Macro Watch: Fed Chair Powell hinted at a September rate cut during Jackson Hole. Stocks surged, the dollar fell, and traders are betting on an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut. 📉🏦📈🐂 Cattle on Feed: August 1 inventory at 10.9M head, 98% of last year. Placements were higher than expected but still 6% below 2024 levels. Overall tone = slightly bearish. 🐄📉🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported corn sales of 5M bu to Costa Rica and 6M bu to Spain for 2025/26 delivery. 🌍📦👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay on top of the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Biofuel Rumor Rally4:18 Crop Tour and USDA8:37 Export Sales13:30 Drought Monitor15:53 USDA Funding Cuts🌽🚜 Grain Market Update: Biofuel Battles, Record Crops & Export Surprises! 🌎📈🔥 Big EPA Decision Coming TodayThe EPA is expected to rule on 195 small refinery exemption (SRE) requests this afternoon. Traders are buzzing after yesterday’s rally in corn, soybeans, and soybean oil—many believe someone knows something ahead of the news. A supplemental rule could also drop next week to decide if big refiners must reallocate exempted gallons, a move farm groups strongly support and oil refiners strongly oppose. 💥⚖️🌱 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Minnesota & Iowa ResultsScouts found record-breaking crops in both states:🌽 Minnesota corn pegged at 199.6 bpa, smashing the old record & up 23% from last year!🌱 Minnesota soybeans also set a new all-time pod count record.🌽 Iowa corn estimated at 198.4 bpa, with soybeans also setting a tour record.Final national results from the tour are expected today. 📊🚢 Export Sales – Big Corn BusinessUS corn exports were 🔥 last week at 2.9 mmt (113 mil bushels), a massive 40% jump from the week prior. Unknown destinations led the charge. Soybean sales were also strong at 1.1 mmt, though China remains absent. Wheat sales lagged, with Mexico as the top buyer.🌦️ Drought Monitor UpdateDry weather tightened conditions across the Eastern Corn Belt (Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri). North Dakota improved, while Kansas & Oklahoma worsened slightly.Current US drought exposure:🌽 Corn – 5%🌱 Soybeans – 9%🌾 Winter Wheat – 31%🌾 Spring Wheat – 14%🐄 Cattle – 15%🏛️ USDA NewsThe USDA plans to close the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, a move critics warn could disrupt vital research. Meanwhile, NASS, the agency behind crop estimates, faces budget cuts and staffing shortages, raising questions about future reporting accuracy.👉 Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop a comment 💬 with your thoughts on today’s EPA ruling and crop tour results!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Crop Tour Update4:21 CME / Fanduel Casino7:32 Russia Wheat Update10:21 Cattle Surge Again12:14 Fed Minutes13:59 Ethanol Production14:46 Flash Sale🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Big Updates! 🌱The tour released results from Illinois and western Iowa:Illinois corn came in at 199.6 bpa, the 2nd-highest in tour history, just shy of last year. 🌽Soybeans set a new record for pod counts, up 4.2% vs. last year. 🌱Western Iowa crops look strong, with corn yields 10% above the 3-year avg. and soybean pod counts up 18%! 🚜But disease concerns could still limit final yield potential.📊 Markets Meet Gambling?FanDuel is teaming up with CME to launch regulated betting contracts tied to:S&P 500, Nasdaq, oil, gas, gold, crypto 💹Key economic indicators like GDP & CPI 📈Founders of the CBOT (1848) might be rolling in their graves over this one…🌾 Global Wheat WatchSovecon raised Russia’s wheat crop outlook to 85.4mmt 🌍. Good weather in Siberia & the Urals boosted yields, but export logistics remain a challenge.🐂 Cattle Rally ContinuesCattle futures hit new highs as supplies remain tight and demand strong. USDA says no to Mexican feeder imports due to disease risk. Beef values hold near record levels. 🥩💵 Fed vs. InflationFed officials see inflation (fueled by tariffs) as the bigger risk vs. jobs. Rates stay at 4.3%, unemployment is up to 4.2%, and inflation just hit a 3-year high. ⚖️⛽ Ethanol SnapshotOutput: 1.07M bpd (down 2% on the week)Stocks: 22.69M barrelsMargins remain strong thanks to cheap corn. 🌽🚢 US Export SalesUS exporters reported new corn sales:100k mt to Colombia 🇨🇴125k mt to Mexico 🇲🇽👉 Stay tuned for charts, graphics, and deeper breakdowns in the corn 🌽, soybean 🌱, wheat 🌾, and cattle 🐂 sections below!🔥 Don’t forget to subscribe & drop a comment with your take on these market moves!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Soybean Farmers Need a Trade Deal3:50 Crop Tour Day 28:29 Eastern Corn Belt Dryness10:36 "Small" Refinery Exemptions12:28 Brazil Soy Cartel13:43 Flash Sale🌱 Soybean Farmers Sound the AlarmThe American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to secure a trade deal with China. In a letter to the White House, the ASA president warned that growers are on the brink of a financial crisis 🚨. With zero new crop soybean sales to China, export commitments are the second-lowest in a decade. Normally, China buys about 14% of its US soybean needs before harvest—but not this year. If China stays out, no other buyers can fill the gap. 📉🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour ResultsScouts released their Indiana & Nebraska findings yesterday:Indiana corn yield pegged at 193.8 bpa, a new tour record 🌟Nebraska corn yield at 179.5 bpa, the best in 4 years 🌽Soybean pod counts mixed: Indiana slightly lower vs. last year, Nebraska up 15%—a record 🚀☀️ Dry Eastern Corn BeltLarge areas of IL, IN, MO, and OH are bone dry 🌵. Temps well above normal, no rain in the 10-day forecast. One or two timely showers could swing soybean yields 10–20 bpa. Corn grain fill is also at risk.⚡ EPA Biofuel Waiver WatchNearly 200 exemption requests are waiting on an EPA ruling this week. A big approval could crush biofuel demand and weaken RIN prices. A smaller approval could boost demand. Expect an appeals battle no matter what. ⚖️🌎 Brazil Soy Cartel ProbeBrazil’s antitrust regulator is investigating the long-standing Soy Moratorium, which bans purchases of soybeans grown on deforested Amazon land. The probe targets 30 traders, including ADM & Cargill. Enforcement of the pact is suspended while the case plays out. 🌳🇲🇽 Flash Soybean SaleUS exporters sold 228,606mt (8 mil bu) of soybeans to Mexico this week. Even so, new-crop sales are still down 20% vs. last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Ohio and SD Tour Findings4:36 Brazilian Corn is Expensive?7:18 USDA Solar/Wind Funding11:12 Crop Conditions/Progress13:49 Big Russian Wheat Crop14:33 Grain Shipments🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, fresh updates from Brazil, big USDA policy news, and the latest on US crop conditions and exports.🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings🚜 South Dakota: Corn yield pegged at 174.2 bpa, up 11% from last year and 21% above the 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 16%. Scouts very impressed—ample summer moisture means record yields possible.🌱 Ohio: Corn yield estimated at 185.7 bpa, a new record, +1.3% vs last year and +2.9% vs 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 4.7%, but scouts found huge variability due to early/late planting, spring replanting, and summer dryness.🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update🌽 Second corn harvest 94% complete (AgRural).📈 Conab raised total corn crop estimate to 137 mmt, USDA steady at 132 mmt.🌱 New 25/26 crop planting 1.6% complete, well ahead of last year.🚢 Despite big supply, Brazilian corn is $13/ton (33¢/bu) more expensive than US corn on export markets.⚡ USDA Ends Wind & Solar Support🛑 USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins announced the end of wind/solar support on farmland.🌍 USDA argued such projects threaten future farming & food security.💰 Until now, USDA pumped billions into renewables.🌾 Only 0.5% of farmland was used for turbines/solar—and most stayed in production.🌽 US Crop ConditionsCorn rated 71% G/E (down slightly, still 2nd highest in 10 years).Soybeans steady at 68% G/E, well above average.🚨 Weak spots: OH, MI, KY, IL.Corn 3% mature, beans 82% setting pods.🌾 Wheat UpdateSpring wheat 50% G/E (up, but well below avg).Harvest is 36% complete; winter wheat 94% done.🌍 Russia raised wheat crop outlook to 85.5 mmt with exports at 42.5 mmt.🚢 Exports & SalesCorn exports: 1.1 mmt (down sharply vs last week/year).Soybeans: 474k mt, mixed but stronger vs last year.Wheat: 395k mt, near low end.📢 Flash sale: 124k mt corn sold to unknown buyers for 25/26.Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and comment 💬 with your thoughts on the Crop Tour results—do you think South Dakota will set a new record this year?

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Welcome Back!Some parts of the US Corn Belt have turned very dry over the last two weeks. Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio have seen little to no rain 🌤️. Talk of a "flash drought" is heating up as the forecast stays dry. Temps have run 2–4° above normal, with a cool front expected this weekend. See maps below!🚜 Crop Tour 🚜Pro Farmer kicks off its Midwest Crop Tour this week (Aug 18–21). Scouts will travel across 7 states, measuring ear counts, pod counts, and crop health. 🌱 This tour offers the most widely followed, real-time snapshot of US crop potential. Results will be released daily, with final estimates Thursday night. Pete Meyer will join us from the tour later this week!📉 Corn Market UpdateThe Dec25 corn contract closed last week nearly unchanged despite a hugely bearish USDA report. 🌾 USDA pegged this year’s corn crop at 16.7B bushels—over 700M above trade guesses. Corn bottomed at $3.92 before closing near $4.05. Export demand is strong, but concerns linger. Big crops often “get bigger,” though not always… See charts below.🥫 Soybean Crush RecordNOPA’s July report showed a record crush for the month at 195.69M bushels (+5.6% vs June, +7% YoY). 💥 Soybean oil stocks fell to the lowest July level since 2004—just under trade estimates. See charts below!📊 Fund ActivityCFTC data shows “The Funds” shifted positions last week:➡️ Sold 6k corn contracts➡️ Bought 27k soybean contracts➡️ Sold 9k SRW wheat contractsCheck out the Fund Tracker below 👇👍 Stay Informed!Don’t miss a beat on weather, markets, and policy. Subscribe, drop a comment 💬, and share your thoughts on whether this “flash drought” will truly hit soybean yields.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG🌾 USDA’s “Summer of Making Agriculture Great Again” – but are they really helping farmers? 🤔🚜 Yesterday, USDA dropped a flashy post on X claiming Sec. Rollins is “fighting every day to put farmers first.” The problem? Most recent farm payments were approved before he took office. Meanwhile, biofuel policy is stalled, the China trade war is still hurting soybeans, and US row crop farmers are stuck with sky-high costs & low prices.📉 Markets Recap:🌽 Dec25 corn tested early-week lows before late buying brought prices back to even.🫘 Nov25 soybeans filled their July chart gap but reversed lower.🌍 China is booking Brazilian beans during the US export window – 12+ million tons already locked in! A 23% tariff keeps US soy uncompetitive, even though we’re $40/ton cheaper without it.📦 Export Sales:✅ Corn – 2.05 MMT new crop sales, up 156% from last year, with Mexico leading buyers.✅ Soybeans – 1.1 MMT sold, but China bought zero.✅ Wheat – 722,800 MT, South Korea in the lead.🌦 Weather & Drought:Corn Belt rains missed the worst drought spots. Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio saw dryness worsen.Corn in drought: 4%Soybeans: 3%Winter wheat: 29%Spring wheat: 16%Cattle: 14%🏭 John Deere Update: Tariffs may cost Deere $600M in 2025 despite beating Q3 earnings estimates. They’re hoping future trade deals & tax policy can help offset the pain.📢 Flash Sales: Two new US corn deals – 136k MT to South Korea & 132k MT to Spain. New crop sales are up 108% year-over-year!📊 Charts & analysis in the video – don’t miss it! 🎥👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments – is USDA all talk, or are they actually helping farmers?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 NCGA Asks for Help3:45 Soybean Rally5:44 Green Plains and Blackrock8:41 Ethanol Production9:48 US Beef Prices🌽 Corn Growers Plead for Action — But Are They Asking for the Wrong Thing? 🚜The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is urging lawmakers to boost corn demand through market-based solutions. Their push comes as farmers face rock-bottom prices and a USDA forecast for a record-smashing crop — 16.74 billion bushels, 9% above the 2023 record. NCGA wants Congress to approve year-round E15 sales (potentially adding 457M bushels of demand) and for the Trump administration to fast-track trade deals. But here’s my take — E15 probably won’t move the demand needle much. What we really need? A solid biofuel policy for sustainable aviation fuel — something missing from NCGA’s plan.🌱 Soybeans on a TearSoybean futures rallied for the third day in a row, hitting the highest price since early July. USDA projects soybean acreage down 7% year-over-year, pushing 2025/26 ending stocks to a three-year low.🏭 Green Plains in Deep DebtGreen Plains has pledged nine of its ten ethanol plants to BlackRock for a debt extension. The company faces oversupply issues, weaker demand, and failed diversification. Their new hope? Carbon capture + updated 45Z tax credits.⛽ Ethanol Production RisingOutput hit 1.09M barrels/day last week, while stocks fell to the lowest point this year. Efficiency is improving — more than 3 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn today compared to 2.8 in 2015.🥩 Beef Prices to Climb in 2026USDA sees beef supplies dropping to the lowest since 2019, with herd rebuilding and tariffs on Brazil tightening supplies further.👍 Like, 💬 comment, and subscribe to stay ahead on the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Mammoth Corn Crop5:07 BIG Acreage Changes7:13 Soybean Rally10:46 Cargill Revenue Down12:47 Stock Market Rally14:38 Corn Flash🌽 Record Corn Crop Sends Prices Tumbling 📉The USDA dropped a bombshell Tuesday, projecting a record-shattering US corn crop 🌽💥. National yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa, smashing all trade estimates and July’s forecast. Production came in at a jaw-dropping 16.74 billion bushels — that’s 1.4B bushels (9%) more than the previous record in 2023. Corn acreage was also bumped up to 97.3 million, fueled by favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt. After the news, Dec25 corn slid about 13¢ to close near $3.95/bu. 📉🌱 Prevent Plant & Acreage UpdateNew FSA data shows 1.8M prevented plant acres of corn (down 32% YoY), 1.2M acres for soybeans (up 55%), and 0.3M acres for wheat (down 29%). Actual plantings came in at 96.5M corn, 79.8M soybeans, and 48.7M wheat — hinting corn acreage may be revised even higher later.🫘 Soybean SurpriseSoybean acres were cut to 80.9M — the biggest YoY drop in modern history 📉. Production is now seen at 4.29B bu, but with a record 53.6 bpa yield. Nov25 soybeans rallied nearly 6¢, settling near $10.33/bu. 📈🏭 Cargill Hit by Weak Grain MarketsCargill’s revenue slid to $154B — its lowest since 2021 — amid slumping crop prices and tight beef margins. The company has cut ~8,000 jobs and restructured from five to three business units.📊 Stock Market Pops on CPI DataJuly CPI met expectations — +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY — sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs 🚀. Odds of a September Fed rate cut are now near 90%.🚢 Corn Flash Sale to MexicoUS exporters sold 315,488 mt of corn to Mexico — most for the 2025/26 marketing year. 🇲🇽👍 Like, comment, and subscribe for the latest in grain markets, ag policy, and market-moving data! 🌾📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/China/Soybeans2:33 USDA Preview4:56 Brazil Corn Update8:34 Crop Progress / Conditions11:36 Strong Corn Shipments Again🌎 Tariff Truce Extended & Soybean Rally! 🌱📈On Monday, President Trump extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days — just hours before massive tariffs were set to return. Without the deal, Chinese imports to the US would’ve faced a 145% tariff, and China would’ve slapped a 125% tariff on US goods 🚢💥.📣 In a Sunday night Truth Social post, Trump urged China to quadruple its US soybean purchases. While no fresh buying has been confirmed, soybean futures rallied nearly 24¢ Monday, with the Nov25 contract settling near $10.11/bu. However, prices are trading softer early this morning.📊 USDA Report Day 🌽🌾The Crop Production & WASDE report drops at 11am CST!Corn yield & production → traders expect a big jump amid stellar crop ratings.Soybeans → yield seen ticking higher.Wheat → US carryout likely lower, but world numbers mostly steady.🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Update 🌽88% of Brazil’s second-crop corn harvested (behind last year’s pace).AgRural pegs total corn crop at 136.3mmt (record!).Farmer selling slow ➡️ prices high ➡️ US staying competitive.🌱 Crop ConditionsCorn: 72% G/E (2nd-best in 10 years for this week) 👍Soybeans: 68% G/E, still above 5-year avg 📈Spring Wheat: 49% G/E (up 1% from last week)Winter Wheat: 90% harvested ✅🚢 Export ShipmentsCorn: 1.5mmt (↑16% vs. last week, ↑51% YoY)Soybeans: 519k mt (↓18% WoW, ↑48% YoY)Wheat: 365k mt (near low end of expectations)📺 Stay Tuned!✅ Subscribe for real-time USDA breakdowns, grain market updates, and trade news.💬 Drop your thoughts below—will China actually buy the beans?#Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #USDA #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #BrazilCorn #FarmNews #AgUpdates

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump Comments, Soybeans Surge2:40 Trump and Farm Economy7:47 StoneX Yield Conspiracy10:11 The Funds and Corn12:12 USDA Preview14:24 Food Prices Rise🌱 Soybeans Surge After Trump Comments 🇺🇸📈Soybean futures are 🔥 this morning after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night, saying he hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and is worried about a shortage. 📲 Traders are reading this as a possible hint that soybean purchases could be part of a new trade deal. The Nov25 contract spiked 📈 27¢ overnight!📰 Trump & the Farm EconomyA recent Bloomberg piece looked at Trump's role in the farm economy. Since his first tariffs earlier this year, some farm input costs have climbed. Tariffs now average 15.2%—the highest since WWII 🇺🇸—but inflation, COVID money creation, direct farm payments 💵, and the Black Sea war ⚔️ have also fueled higher costs.📉 New crop US soybean sales are the lowest in nearly 20 years—China hasn’t bought any yet. Meanwhile, US corn export sales are record high 🌽💪.📊 Fund TrackerFunds cut their net short in corn last week (👀 +15k contracts)Net sellers of soybeans (-29k), pushing net shorts to the biggest since Dec 2024Net sellers of SRW wheat (-16k)📅 USDA Report Tomorrow – Big Changes ExpectedTraders expect higher corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 yield estimates, bigger US carryouts, and rising global stocks—except for wheat, which may tighten.🌍 Global Food Prices ClimbThe FAO Food Price Index hit 130.1 in July—the highest in 2+ years—driven by record-high meat prices 🥩 and surging vegetable oils 🌻🥥. Grain prices remain low despite high grocery costs.🚨 Flash Corn SaleUS exporters sold 125,000mt (5mil bu) of corn to “unknown” buyers for 25/26. Next year’s sales are already up 102% vs last year.👍 If you follow grain markets, subscribe for daily updates & drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Brian's Charts3:15 Big Corn Sales7:50 US Ag Trade Deficit9:42 Drought Monitor / Weather / Crop13:49 China Pig Plan15:57 Nutrien18:22 BOE Rate Cut, US Next🎯 Big Corn Sales, Global Trade Shifts & Drought Watch! 🌽📉🌍🔥 MASSIVE Corn Sales!US new crop corn export sales came in at 3.163 MMT (125 mil bu) — the 3rd best weekly number ever and the best without China in the mix!👉 Soybean sales (old + new crop) both beat expectations👉 Wheat sales strong too — up 25% from last week🚨 Record Ag Trade DeficitFor the first 6 months of 2025, the US posted a $28.6B ag trade deficit, the worst on record... June alone: $4.1B shortfall📌 Long-running surpluses have turned into consistent deficits since 2019📌 Brazil & Argentina crops still undercutting US grain globallyDrought Monitor UpdateUSDA's weekly drought map is out:Spotty rains helped parts of IN & the High PlainsNew drought popped up in MO, IA, WI, and KY📉 Current drought by crop:Corn: 3%Soybeans: 3%Winter Wheat: 30%Spring Wheat: 35%Cattle: 13%🇨🇳 China to Cut Hog HerdChina plans to reduce its sow herd by 1 million headCash hog prices are down 30% YoY📦 This could mean lower soymeal demand moving forward — big implications for soybean exporters🧠 Trade tensions also play a role here🌱 Fertilizer Demand Still StrongNutrien says fall demand is booming, even with grain prices under pressure🌽 Higher US corn acres = more potash demand📈 Nutrien raised its 2025 potash forecast after record H1 sales📊 Expect a busy fall fertilizer season🇬🇧 Bank of England Cuts RatesThe BOE cut interest rates to 4.00%, lowest in over 2 years📉 Down from 5.25% in 2024⚖️ Vote was close: 5-4 split📈 Inflation still high (4%)📉 Labor market softening🧭 Forward guidance? Cautious & slowDrop your thoughts in the comments! Are US ag exports turning a corner… or just getting squeezed out globally?👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit that bell 🔔 for weekly market insights that cut through the noise.#GrainMarkets #CornExports #USDA #DroughtMonitor #TradeDeficit #Soybeans #Fertilizer #BOE #China #AgNews #FarmEcono

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Hammer Time (Corn Pattern)3:15 Wheat Update5:03 Soybean Update7:08 New COVID Strain8:57 Mosaic and Fertilizer11:02 Ethanol Production🌽 Corn Cracks $4! Rain, Record Yields & Farmer Selling 🌧️📉Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff — this week’s update is packed with price moves, trade chatter, and market-moving headlines! Let’s dig in👇🌦️ 🌽 Corn Futures Dip Below $4!The Dec '25 corn contract dipped under $4 for the first time 😬➡️ Rains across the Corn Belt 🌧️➡️ Lofty private yield estimates 📈➡️ Weak Sep/Dec spread 😵‍💫 (farmer "puke" anyone?)➡️ Record Brazil crop weighs on global values 🇧🇷⚠️ USDA report on deck Tuesday — average guess is 184.2bpa vs 181🌾 Wheat & Soybeans Stay Weak🟤 Sep ’25 SRW wheat hit $5.04, lowest since May🟡 Nov ’25 soybeans near $9.85 after meal-led selloff🌎 Big global supplies + soft demand = headwinds 🚫🦠 New COVID Variant… Again?A new strain (XFG) is spreading.➡️ Third most common in the US➡️ No big red flags 🚫💭 Worth watching… remember 2020?🧪 Fertilizer Falters: Mosaic Slides 13%Mosaic missed earnings and shares tanked 💥🇺🇸 Tariffs + delayed maintenance + lower crop prices = 💸📉 US phosphate/potash imports down 20% YTD🍺 Ethanol Update: More Efficient Than Ever🛢️ Weekly output: 1.08mil bpd📉 Stocks fell to 23.76mil barrels💰 Margins improved🌽 One bushel = 3+ gallons of ethanol today vs. 2.8 in 2015!📊 🖼️ See all the charts below:• Monthly SRW Wheat 📉• Stocks/Use Ratios• Ethanol Efficiency Gains👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your take in the comments!📬 Stay tuned—Tuesday’s USDA report could move markets in a big way!#corn #soybeans #wheat #ethanol #fertilizer #covid #usda #grainmarkets #trading #farming #agriculture #commodities #mosaic #StoneX #JoshLinville

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Joe's Resting B Face1:30 Corn Belt Heat Wave3:28 Argy Meal to China5:08 ADM Stock Rises7:47 Farmer Sentiment9:20 Big Ukraine Crops10:39 Corn Flash🌽🔥 Heat, Trade, and Biofuels – Big Moves in Ag This Week! 🌎💥Hey farmers, traders, and ag market watchers! 👨‍🌾📈 This week’s update is packed with key developments you won’t want to miss! Let’s break it down ⬇️🌡️ ☀️ Heat Wave Hits the Corn Belt!A two-week scorcher is headed for the Corn Belt! CropProphet forecasts temps 3–4°F above normal, with near-normal rain at first, then slightly drier. Some say warm weather during grain fill can help corn and soybean yields—if moisture holds up. What do you think? 🤔🇨🇳🌱 China Buys Big from ArgentinaChina’s diversifying! They've now bought 3 cargos of 🇦🇷 soybean meal (via Bunge), plus approved the first-ever Argentine corn shipment! 📦 And with a $900M letter of intent signed for soy, corn, and oil... trade ties are heating up like the weather! 🔥🛢️ ADM Sees Biofuel Boom Ahead 🚜Despite earlier scandals, ADM is riding high 📈—shares up 15% YTD. They expect higher biofuel mandates to fuel future profits, especially in Q4. Clarity in policy = bullish long term? 📉 Farmer Sentiment Slips 😕The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in July, with both present and future outlooks lower. But there's a silver lining: 🌐 optimism about trade is up, and most believe the US is heading in the right direction. 🌾 Ukraine Crop Outlook Improves 🌍Ukrainian wheat and corn production could exceed forecasts if weather holds. With grain production near 56mmt and exports projected to hit 40mmt, winter wheat acres are set to rise 🚜. 🚨 USDA Flash Sale (Kind of…)USDA reported a flash soybean sale—but wait! Correction: it was actually corn! 😅 This is the second correction in two weeks. Sale totals 5 mil bushels to unknown buyers for 2025/26. 👍 If you enjoy honest, independent ag updates, smash that LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and join the convo below! Your support keeps us going 🙌

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!1:01 StoneX Estimates5:22 Corn Selloff7:05 Crop Conditions11:37 Brazil Harvest12:56 Strong Shipments🌽📊 StoneX Sees RECORD Corn Yield! Soybeans Also Strong 💪👀 A well-followed private group, StoneX, just dropped massive US crop estimates based on their customer survey… and the numbers are way above USDA’s latest!🌽 Corn Yield:🔹 188.1 bpa vs. USDA’s 181.0🔹 16.32B bushels vs. USDA’s 15.71B🌱 Soybean Yield:🔹 53.6 bpa vs. USDA’s 52.5🔹 4.43B bushels vs. USDA’s 4.34BThese estimates are based on input from StoneX’s grain-buying customers & agronomists 🧑‍🌾📋 📉 Market Reaction:Corn futures sank again on Monday, with the Dec25 contract hitting a new life-of-contract low at $4.07/bu. Favorable US weather 🌤️ and a record Brazilian crop 🌎🌽 are dragging prices down.🌾 Crop Conditions:✅ US Corn: 73% G/E – 2nd best in a decade!✅ US Soybeans: 69% G/E – Highest since 2020📉 US Spring Wheat: 48% G/E – down for a 3rd straight week🚜 Winter Wheat: 86% harvested and nearly wrapped up🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest:⏳ Behind last year’s pace, but picking up fast!📦 Total corn crop pegged at a record 136.3mmt🚢 Export Inspections:🔸 Corn: 1.2mmt (📉 21% WoW)🔸 Soybeans: 612k mt (📈 130% YoY)🔸 Wheat: 599k mt (📈 107% WoW)👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and share if this info helps you stay ahead of the market!#Corn #Soybeans #GrainMarkets #CropUpdate #StoneX #Futures #USDA #Wheat #AgNews #FarmEconomics 🌾🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Depressing News0:40 The Funds are Short2:52 Heat Wave4:15 US/China Update5:56 Meal Update7:41 Wheat 8:42 Flash Sales🔥 FUND MOVES, HEAT WAVES & TRADE TALK! 🌽🌡️📉Here's what you need to know this week in grains, weather, and global trade! 👇📊 🧠 Fund Flows:“The Funds” slightly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week. CFTC data showed:Net sellers of just 181 corn contracts 📉Heavy net sellers of 34,000 soybean contracts 😬Largest soybean short since April 🫘Sold 13,000 SRW wheat contracts 🌾🌞 🔥 Heat Building in the Corn Belt:Our friends at CropProphet see above-normal temps on the way:📅 7-day: +2°F above normal📅 8–14 day: +3.8°F above normal🌧️ Slightly below-normal rainfall🤝 US-China Trade Talks Back On?Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says he’s “optimistic” about a deal ✍️🇺🇸🇨🇳 Officials met in Stockholm last week🗓️ Deadline: August 12👉 But so far, new crop US soybean sales are the worst since 2005... zero Chinese purchases 😳🌎 China Buys Argentine Meal AgainChina booked another 30,000mt of Argentine soybean meal 🇦🇷That’s the 3rd deal since June after years of no activity💰 Why? Cheaper prices thanks to lower Argentine export taxes (from 31% → 24.5%)🚢 Wheat Export SlowdownRussia, Ukraine, and the EU — who make up nearly 50% of global wheat exports — are off to a slow start:Russian exports down 30% YoY 📉Ukraine shipping just 1/3 of last year’s volumeSpot prices at Black Sea ports +8% in July📉 All 3 US wheat futures contracts just hit life-of-contract lows🌽 Flash Sales!USDA reported two corn flash sales Friday:352,160mt (14 million bushels) to unknown destinations for 25/26📉 Stock Market SlumpMarkets tumbled Friday after weak job data:Dow -1.2%S&P -1.6%Nasdaq -2.2%👎 Only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100k expected👀 Fed rate cut odds for September just went up🧨 Trump tariffs also added pressure👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more market updates every week!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Yield Bet3:31 Export Sales10:41 Flash Sales11:50 Wet July15:26 Cattle Selloff20:11 US Dollar Rally🎯 US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges 🚀 | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup 🌽💥📉 Grains in Motion!US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But don’t panic—new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! 🙌🌱 Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels).🌾 Wheat took a step back—592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average.🚨 Flash Sales Frenzy!The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday:🇨🇴 100k mt corn to Colombia🇰🇷 140k mt corn to South Korea❓ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations🇳🇬 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria📦 All for 2025/26 delivery!🌧️ Corn Belt Drought FadesThe latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news:✅ Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN📉 Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%—down from 32% earlier this year!📌 National Drought Stats:• Corn: 7% 🌽• Soybeans: 5% 🌱• Winter Wheat: 30% ❄️• Spring Wheat: 38% 🌾• Cattle: 14% 🐄📉 Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip?🐂 After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursday—feeder contracts hit limit down 📉Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid 💪💵 Dollar Roars in JulyThe US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in July—its best month since Dec 2024! 💹✅ Resilient economy✅ Hawkish Fed✅ Easing trade tensionsBut beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon...👍 Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollar’s next move!#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Cattle #USDollar #DroughtUpdate #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarketing #FarmNews 🌽📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 120mil Soybean Acres3:38 Soybean Selloff4:51 Excessive Rain?7:50 Ethanol Production8:58 GDP and the Haters🌱 Brazil's Monster Soy Crop & Market Fallout! 🌎💥🚨 Big headlines this week from Brazil! DATAGRO pegs their next soybean crop at a jaw-dropping 182.9 MMT 🤯—well above USDA’s 175 MMT estimate. That’s +8.2% from last year’s record. 🇧🇷🌱 Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 120+ million soybean acres, dwarfing the 82.5 million in the U.S. Corn crop? Also record-setting at 140.9 MMT, says DATAGRO. 📈🌽📉 Soybean futures keep sliding for a fourth straight day. November 2025 dropped nearly 14 cents to $9.96, the lowest since April. Why? 👉 Favorable weather 🌧️, weak Chinese demand 🇨🇳, and bearish momentum across the soy complex. Even soybean meal hit contract lows. Ouch. 🛑🌧️ Rain, rain, and more rain in parts of the Corn Belt! Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Illinois have been soaked—over 4 inches in just 7 days. Some Iowa counties have seen 12+ inches in the past month! Drier days are expected, but more rain may return next week. ☁️🌦️⛽ Ethanol update: Weekly U.S. production hit 1.1 million barrels/day, +1.7% on the week. Stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, staying well above seasonal norms. Margins? Still solid, per Reuters. 💵🛢️📊 The U.S. economy is on fire 🔥! Q2 GDP came in at +3.0%, smashing expectations. The big driver? Imports plunged 30% year-over-year—thanks, tariffs. 🏛️ Fed held rates steady, but the dollar surged, notching its biggest 5-day rally since 2022! 💸🇺🇸👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share if you enjoy staying ahead of the ag game! 🌽📰💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🎥 Severe Storms Slam Midwest + Market Moves & China Soy Woes ⚡🌽💼Hey everyone! Big weather and market headlines to cover today — let's get into it 👇0:00 Derecho Update3:46 Corn and Soybean Price Action5:45 Govt Payments??8:26 Soy Demand Problems (China)9:30 US/China Talks10:51 Oil Refiners🌪️ Midwest Storms Cause ChaosSevere storms tore through the Upper Midwest on Monday night with wind gusts up to 130 mph reported from eastern South Dakota to western Wisconsin. Crops like sorghum sudan and corn were knocked flat in spots, and a South Dakota dairy suffered major structural damage. Tornadoes and large hail also hit parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Was it a derecho? Still unclear. 🤔💨 CropProphet has a killer wind speed map by county (see below). Despite the destruction, crop damage appears minimal based on early reports. Remember: the 2023 derecho didn’t crush yields either. 🌾📉 Markets Take Another HitCorn and soybean futures were down for the 3rd straight session:Dec25 Corn: ⬇️ 3¢ to $4.11/buNov25 Soybeans: ⬇️ 2¢ to $10.10/buWheat also dropped:Dec25 SRW: ⬇️ 9¢ to $5.50/buDec25 HRW: ⬇️ 7¢ to $5.40/buCooler weather + rain = bearish sentiment 📉🌧️🐖 China Soybean Demand WeakensChina’s Q4 soy demand looks soft due to:Record early-year importsWeak feed sector demandCrushing margins still ugly 😬Some plants have shut down for lack of storage. And still — no US new crop soy sales to China yet. Argentina meal is doing the heavy lifting. 📊🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks ContinueTrade talks in Stockholm ended without a new tariff truce agreement, but more discussions are planned. Deadline: August 12. Will Trump approve an extension? Decision coming soon. 🤝🕰️🛢️ Refiners vs. BiofuelsThe AFPM is fighting Trump’s push to boost ethanol mandates to E15, saying it could cost refiners $70 billion. They're also blaming proposed EPA rules for refinery shutdowns — but the real issue may be declining gasoline demand. ⛽📉👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more ag + market updates every week!#StormDamage #GrainMarkets #ChinaSoy #Derecho #Ethanol #TradeTalks #AgNews #CornBelt #Soybeans #FarmingNews #TrumpTariffs

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Wind Event3:00 Crop Conditions7:38 Big Brazil Crop8:40 US/China Update10:13 US Dollar11:08 Grain Shipments11:52 Flash Sales🌪️ Severe Storms Rip Through the Northern Corn Belt 🌽⚡Severe thunderstorms powered by extreme heat and humidity blasted across the Northern Plains and into the northern Corn Belt on Monday evening. 💨 Wind gusts reached an insane 134 mph in northern Iowa, with tornadoes reported in South Dakota and Iowa. Early Tuesday, storms continued in eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and western Illinois—though the worst winds have calmed. ⚠️ Widespread power outages were reported.📍 See storm maps below!📉 Crop Condition Update 🌱🔹 Corn: 73% rated good to excellent—slightly down from last week but still the 2nd best in a decade!🔹 Soybeans: 70% rated good to excellent, the best for this time since 2020!🔹 Spring Wheat: Declines again this week—only 49% rated good to excellent.🔹 Winter Wheat: 80% harvested nationwide; nearly complete in TX, OK, KS.🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Harvest Lags but Outlook Grows 🌽Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is behind last year—just 68% harvested vs. 91% this time last year. Despite delays, AgRural raised their total corn production estimate to a record 136.3mmt!🚜 Dry weather helped boost weekly harvest pace.🤝 US-China Trade Talks Continue in Stockholm 🥢Officials met for over 5 hours Monday—no deal yet, but a 90-day truce extension is likely. The US paused some tech export controls to support talks.🔍 No new Chinese soybean buys yet, but the market expects them soon.🇨🇳 China could account for ~19% of US soybean demand this year.💵 US Dollar Surges on Trade Optimism 📈The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.8% on Monday—its biggest move since May. The rally was fueled by the new US-EU trade deal and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady this week.🚢 US Export Inspections Surprise to the Upside 📦✔️ Corn: 1.5mmt inspected—+55% vs. last week✔️ Soybeans: 409,714mt—near the high end of estimates❌ Wheat: 288,793mt—well below expectations📢 Flash Sales Announced! 💼🗓️ Monday’s USDA report showed big corn sales:🇲🇽 225,000mt to Mexico (25/26 MY)❓ 229,000mt to unknown (35k for 24/25, 194k for 25/26)💰 Markets watching closely as new crop sales ramp up.📌 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!🧠 Stay informed, stay ahead. More weather, markets, and updates coming your way!#GrainMarkets #CornBelt #CropConditions #Soybeans #Wheat

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Weather, Giant Crop2:42 US/EU Trade Deal4:13 US and China Talks8:05 The Funds8:53 Cattle on Feed11:13 Argentina Taxes12:09 China Heat13:27 Flash Sales🌽 Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! 🌧️🌬️Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5–12°F below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? That’s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. 🌡️📉🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 Big US–EU Trade Deal Signed!The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday:🔹 15% tariff on EU imports🔹 EU to invest $600B in the US🔹 EU to buy $750B in US energy🔹 No new US tariffs on exportsPresident Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. 🌍🚢🇨🇳 US–China Truce Extension TalksOfficials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days.🔸 Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)!🔸 A Trump–Xi meeting may happen in late October🔸 China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods🔸 US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases 🌾🤞📉 Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & WheatCFTC's latest COT report shows:🟢 Funds bought 8k corn contracts🟢 Funds bought 26k soybean contracts🟢 Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts🥩 Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise!Friday’s report showed:📉 June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations)📉 Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess)➡️ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond?🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Export TariffsPresident Milei cuts:🔻 Soybean meal/oil: 31% → 24.5%🔻 Soybeans: 33% → 26%🔻 Corn: 12% → 9.5%🔻 Select beef: 6.75% → 5%Milei still sees tariffs as a “necessary evil” for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. 🇦🇷💸🔥 China’s Crop Heat Stress ContinuesChina faces ongoing drought and heat:🌡️ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output📉 Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year🌾 90–95% of China’s wheat is winter wheatUSDA still sees modest increases—but the heat wave could say otherwise!🚢 USDA Flash Sales Update📢 Big Friday moves:🇲🇽 Mexico:• 102,870mt corn (4mil bu)• 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu)🇰🇷 South Korea:• 140,000mt corn (6mil bu)👉 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Sun's Out, Guns Out0:30 Flash Sale Fiasco2:08 USDA Cuts5:32 US Weather9:07 Export Sales12:40 North Dakota Wheat📢 USDA FLASH SALES SHAKE UP THE CORN MARKET! 🌽📊🔥 Big news hit the wire Thursday as USDA reported multiple flash sales of US corn!💥 135,000mt (5 mil bu) went to South Korea—after an initial (and incorrect) announcement that China was the buyer, sparking a brief rally.🌍 Another 284,196mt (11 mil bu) of corn was sold to unknown destinations. Export action is heating up!🏢 USDA RELOCATION PLAN: BIG SHAKEUP IN DC! 🏛️➡️🏞️The USDA will relocate 2,600+ employees from Washington to cities like Raleigh, KC, Indy, Fort Collins & Salt Lake City.🏗️ Several DC buildings will be vacated.📉 Critics warn of reduced agency effectiveness, while supporters say it’ll bring USDA closer to farmers.📊 This move includes a NASS consolidation, affecting reports on:🌽 Crop production📏 Acreage🐮 Cattle on feed❄️ Cold storage🌾 Grain stocks & more!🌧️ DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE CORN BELT! 🌽💦💧 Missouri is now entirely drought-free!🌦️ Heavy rains in IL, IN, KY, and MO improved conditions across much of the Midwest.📉 Drought by crop area:Corn: 9%Soybeans: 8%Winter Wheat: 31%Spring Wheat: 43%Cattle: 15%🌾 NORTH DAKOTA SPRING WHEAT YIELDS MISS USDA TARGETS! 📉🚜 After 3 days of field surveys, scouts peg ND yields at 49 bpa, far below the USDA’s 59 bpa estimate.🌦️ Rain helped some areas, but northern drought weighs on the average.📉 Sep25 spring wheat contract hit new lows this week.📈 EXPORT SALES SNAPSHOT 🌎Corn: 📈 643,100mt (25 mil bu) – Rebound from last week!Soybeans: 📉 160,900mt (6 mil bu) – Down sharply from recent weeksWheat: 🚀 712,200mt (26 mil bu) – Blew past expectations!Top Buyers:🇲🇽 Mexico (corn)🇳🇱 Netherlands (soybeans)🇮🇩 Indonesia (wheat)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Farm Bankruptcies Rise4:57 China Hog Reduction?6:38 Heat Wave10:17 North Dakota Wheat Tour11:27 Ethanol Production📉 🚨 Farm Bankruptcies SurgeFarm bankruptcies have jumped to their highest level since 2020 📈. With high interest rates, trade war aftershocks 🇨🇳🇺🇸, and slumping export demand, many growers are feeling the squeeze. Total US farm debt is set to hit a record $561.8 billion 💰. While USDA sees higher net income this year, it's largely thanks to government aid 🧾.🐖 China Cuts Hog Herd & Soymeal UseChina is rebalancing its pork market amid a glut of hogs and falling prices 🐷⬇️. Officials are slashing sow numbers, limiting new capacity, and even pushing alternative protein sources like food waste, insects 🪳, and animal-based proteins 🐟. This is also part of China's move to reduce soybean meal use and lessen dependence on global markets.🔍 Typical Chinese hog ration: 50–65% corn 🌽, 15–20% soymeal, 5–15% small grains, 5–10% bran/DDGs.🔥 Corn Belt Heat Dome PersistsA brutal heat dome continues to roast the Corn Belt 🥵. Triple-digit heat indices and warm overnight lows are stressing crops across the region. Relief may not come until next week. Despite the heat, traders seem unfazed—thanks to an otherwise strong growing season 🌱.🌾 North Dakota Wheat Tour: Mixed YieldsCrop scouts in southern ND pegged hard red spring wheat yields at 50 bpa, down slightly from last year but still above the 5-year avg. Northern fields averaged 47.1 bpa—again lower vs. 2023 but stronger than the 5-year norm. 🌾 Disease risk and wind damage were noted.⛽ Ethanol Update: Output Slips, Stocks BuildUS ethanol production dipped slightly last week, but stocks jumped to 24.44 million barrels 📦. Despite slower output, margins have improved 💹.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/Japan Deal3:00 Heat Wave, Corn Sweat5:37 Wheat Sucks7:52 Coca-Cola Update8:53 US/China Update11:12 Meme Stocks / M2🎥 BIG TRADE DEALS, CORN SWEAT & MEME STOCKS! 🌽📈🇯🇵🚨 President Trump just dropped a massive trade bombshell — TWO new international deals in one day!🇯🇵 Japan Deal Highlights:– 15% tariff on imports– $550B Japanese investment in the US (Trump decides where it goes!)– Big wins for US agriculture: 🚜 +75% rice purchases, +$8B in ag imports– Expanded access for American cars, corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, pork & dairy!🇵🇭 Philippines Deal:– 19% export tariff to the US– Details still emerging…🔥 Meanwhile, it’s HOT out there—and “🌽 Corn Sweat” is making it worse!A massive heat dome is punishing the eastern U.S., with humidity spiking in the Corn Belt right during pollination. Luckily, forecasts now show a drastic cooldown coming soon. 🌡️🌽📊 Wheat rallies on smaller harvest expectations from Russia 🇷🇺, Ukraine 🇺🇦, and drought in Canada 🇨🇦.– SRW & HRW wheat futures up– Spring wheat climbs near $6.12/bu🥤 Coca-Cola’s Cane Sugar Comeback?– Trump praised Coke for ditching HFCS– A new, premium cane sugar line may launch. 🍬– But don’t expect big changes to corn demand just yet🌏 China Trade Truce Extended?– Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent heading to Sweden for talks– 90-day tariff pause expires Aug. 12– Topics: trade balance, oil imports from Russia/Iran, China’s economic reforms💥 Meme Stocks Return!– Opendoor & Kohl’s are the new GameStop & AMC– Retail frenzy is back despite higher rates and no stimulus– Many asset classes (stocks, real estate, farmland, BTC, gold) hovering near all-time highs 🚀💰– Is it FOMO… or a bubble? 🫧

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China/Africa2:45 Row Crop Selloff6:35 188 National Corn Yield??8:40 Wheat9:42 Monster Brazil Corn Crop10:52 Fertilizer and Sanctions12:34 Grain Shipments🌍🇨🇳 China Targets Angola for Major Ag Expansion! 🌽🌱A Chinese state-owned giant, Citic Ltd., is investing $250 million to build massive soybean and corn farms across 247,000 acres in Angola! 🚜 Roughly 60% of production will head to China, with the rest staying local. Angola’s soils are similar to Brazil’s Cerrado, making this a potential ag powerhouse with the right tech and investment. 🤖🌾📦 TRADE + POLICYChina and the US have agreed on a framework to ease trade tensions... but no final deal yet. Meanwhile, Angola plans more ag deals with China, with an eye on exporting 500,000+ mt of food. Stay tuned for the geopolitics of grain! ⚖️🌐🌧️📉 MARKETS MOVE ON WEATHER & TRADECorn and soybean futures slipped Monday as forecasts called for rain in the Corn Belt, muting concerns about upcoming heat. 🌡️ Wheat dropped too, pressured by Russian exports, but saw support from Bangladesh’s new U.S. wheat deal. 🌽 CROP CONDITIONS STRONGCorn: 74% good/excellent—best since 2016! 🌟Soybeans: 68% G/E—well above average but down slightlySpring Wheat: Ratings fell again 🌾Winter Wheat: 73% harvested—one of the slowest paces in a decade ⏳🇧🇷 BRAZIL CORN OUTLOOK IMPROVESAgRural raised Brazil's corn estimate to 136.3 MMT, citing better yields for the second crop. 🌽 Harvest is 55% done — still behind last year. Brazil’s crop is now seen 170 million bushels larger than USDA's latest figure. 🔼📈🚫 FERTILIZER SUPPLY RISK?Potential U.S. secondary sanctions on Russian exports could hit Latin America's fertilizer supply, especially Brazil and Mexico. Both nations are heavily dependent on Russian imports—a major risk to crops like corn and avocados. 🧪⚠️🚢 EXPORTS: MIXED BAGCorn: 983k mt — down 25% from last week 📉Soybeans: 365k mt — up 141% from last week 🔼Wheat: 732k mt — up 152% YoY 🚀

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Dome of Doom3:35 The Funds6:07 Bangladesh Deal7:29 China Soybean Imports9:04 Stablecoin Bill🔥 HEAT DOME BEARS DOWN ON THE CORN BELT! 🌽💥🌡️ 🔥 Weather Watch: Dome of Doom Incoming!A major heat wave is forecast to impact the Corn Belt starting Tuesday! A "heat dome" will bring extreme temps and humidity, with highs soaring to 95–105°F and heat indices well into the triple digits! 🥵 Overnight lows in the 70s offer little relief, stressing crops further. The good news? A slight cooldown may arrive by the weekend. ☁️🌬️🌧️ 🌽 Grain Markets & Weather: Rain vs. HeatSome say “rain makes grain,” but others worry that too much rain + heat could hurt yields in some areas. The dome may block rain for some, but precipitation around the edge looks adequate.📉 📊 Fund Flows: Corn Buying, Soy Selling"The Funds" cut their corn shorts last week! 🚜 CFTC data shows money managers bought 20K corn contracts, but sold 24K soybean contracts, flipping soybeans to net short for the first time since April. Funds also offloaded 5K SRW wheat. 🇧🇩 🌾 US Wheat Deal with BangladeshBangladesh just signed a 5-year deal to import 700,000mt of US wheat annually 🌎👏—part of a broader effort to boost trade and avoid tariffs. While a positive headline, this move represents a small slice of Bangladesh's 7mmt/year wheat demand. Still, it’s a step in the right direction! 📦📜🇨🇳 📦 China Soybean Imports SoarChina’s soybean imports hit a record high in June! 🚢 Brazil supplied 87% of total imports, while the US share rose 21% YoY. From Jan–June, Brazil’s shipments dropped 7.5%, while US volumes jumped 33%. Q3 imports should remain strong, but Q4 hinges on US-China trade talks. 🤝🇺🇸🇨🇳💵 🪙 Stablecoin Shake-Up: GENIUS Act SignedTrump just signed the first federal stablecoin law—the GENIUS Act 🧠💵. The law creates rules for US dollar-backed digital money (aka stablecoins) to reduce risk and boost global confidence. Supporters call it a “giant step” for crypto. Critics? Not so sure… 🤔⚖️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:47 Soy Rally3:05 Drought / Overnight Lows10:30 Export Sales13:07 Fertilizer Update15:52 SAF Plant18:35 S&P 500 Record🎥 Soybeans Surge, Droughts Ease, and Fertilizer Wars Begin! 🌱💥📈🔥 BIG moves in the grain markets this week! Here's what you need to know:🌾 Soybean Rally 🚀The Nov25 soybean contract jumped from $10.07 to around $10.40! Much of the rally is thanks to soaring soybean oil futures, which hit their best levels since Sept '23. 📊 Optimism around Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is keeping the bulls active. 🌱 Corn and soybean oil futures are sharply higher too.🌧️ Drought Monitor Update 🌎Last week’s rains brought some relief! ⛈️💧 Iowa, Illinois & Missouri received more than 200% of normal rainfall!✔️ Drought conditions improved in:Northern IllinoisNortheast MissouriSouthern IndianaParts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota & NebraskaCorn: 9% in droughtSoybeans: 7%Winter wheat: 30%Spring wheat: 36%Cattle country: 15% 🐄📉 Disappointing Export SalesUS export sales stumbled last week:❌ Corn: Just 97,600 mt—a marketing year low 😬❌ Soybeans: 271,900 mt—weak numbers 😕✅ Wheat: 494,400 mt—down from last week but better than the 4-week average🇷🇺 Russia Targets Fertilizer Expansion 🌍Russia wants to grow its global fertilizer share from 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on BRICS nations 🌐⛔️ EU tariffs are pushing Russian supply elsewhere🧪 BRICS = nearly half of global fertilizer demand✈️ Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Takes Off 🛫The world’s first SAF plant is expected to start in Georgia by late Sept💰 $200M LanzaJet facility will begin using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol (not 45Z eligible)🇺🇸 US ethanol will be used later—once it meets the 50% GHG reduction threshold🛢️ LanzaJet is pushing to lower the threshold to 30% for more flexibility📈 Stock Market Soars 📊The S&P 500 hit a record high!🛍️ Strong retail sales📉 Declining jobless claims💵 Stablecoin bill passed💲 US dollar on fire 🔥🏦 Rate cuts still expected despite Powell uncertainty💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE!🔔 Stay updated on everything from beans to the big board!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump and Coke3:17 Soybean Rally4:41 US Weather8:23 US/China Tensions Ease9:37 Ethanol Production10:28 Trump and Powell📢 BIG Changes Coming to Coca-Cola? Trump Says So! 🥤🇺🇸According to President Trump, Coca-Cola may soon ditch high-fructose corn syrup and switch to real cane sugar in U.S. products! 🌽❌➡️🍬 Trump praised the move in a post on Truth Social, tying it to his broader push to reduce processed ingredients in the American food supply. But... Coke hasn’t confirmed anything yet. 🤔🌎 Coke already uses cane sugar in places like Mexico and the UK, so could the U.S. be next?💡 Fun fact: About 410 million bushels of U.S. corn went to HFCS in 2023—that's 2.8% of total corn demand! 🌱 MARKET MOVERS 💰📈 Soybeans surged nearly 19 cents on Wednesday amid fresh export demand speculation—possibly China!🌽 Corn futures also rose 4 cents on renewed optimism and trade progress with Indonesia.🌦️ WET WEATHER ALERT!CropProphet sees 142% of normal rainfall across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, but things may dry out during the 8–14 day window 🌧️➡️☀️.⚠️ Watch for hot and humid nights in the eastern Corn Belt—could be a problem!🕊️ TRUMP SOFTENS ON CHINA?Trump is now seeking short-term deals with China and a possible meeting with President Xi. The pivot has sparked internal debate, especially after easing chip restrictions on Nvidia 💻🧠.🍺 ETHANOL WATCH🛢️ Weekly U.S. ethanol production ticked up to 1.09M barrels/day, but still trails last year. Stocks fell for a third straight week. Margins? Still strong 💪🏛️ TRUMP VS. POWELL?Despite rumors, Trump says he won’t fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell—unless there’s fraud. Still, he's calling for a massive 3-point rate cut and slammed the Fed’s pricey HQ renovation. 💸📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Stupid Theory4:47 Corn Belt Rain7:48 Soybean Crush9:13 Indonesia Trade Deal10:53 Brazil Tariffs and Beef Imports🔥 Inflation Rises, Tariffs Bite, and Weather Heats Up! 🌽💰🌦️Hey everyone! In today’s update, we’re tracking the latest market movers—from soaring inflation to shifting weather and big-time trade news. Let’s dive in! 👇📈 🔥 Inflation Hits a 5-Month HighConsumer prices rose 0.3% in June—marking the biggest jump since February. Annual inflation ticked up to 2.7% 📊. Tariff-sensitive goods like clothing and appliances saw the sharpest increases, suggesting tariffs may be fueling price pressures. Trump wasted no time calling for Fed rate cuts… again. 🌦️ 🌽 Rain Watch: Big Totals IncomingRain is moving through parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas this morning, with 1–2" expected over much of the Corn Belt in the next 5 days. Some areas could top 3" over the 10-day! Forecasts are calling for near-normal temps this week, but the extended outlook turns hot! 🔥🫘 NOPA Crush Record!June soybean crush came in at 185.71 million bushels—a record for the month 📉🛢️. Oil stocks fell to their lowest June level since 2004, dropping below trade estimates. 🤝 Indonesia Strikes a Deal 🇮🇩Trump finalized a tariff deal with Indonesia: 🇺🇸 ag exports head in tariff-free, while 🇮🇩 exports face a 19% duty. Indonesia will buy $4.5B in US ag goods, including wheat, soybeans, soymeal, and dairy 🧀. See the Top 10 wheat & meal importer charts to understand the impact 📈🌾.🥩 Beef Battles: Brazil Tariff IncomingStarting August 1, Brazilian beef faces a 50% US tariff 🐄💥. Brazilian meatpackers are already scaling back cattle buying. With the US cattle herd at a 70-year low, this could mean tighter beef supplies ahead. Brazil sent $1.4B in beef to the US last year—nearly a quarter of our imports.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Reversal2:31 Corn/Soybean Ratings are Strong6:06 More Corn Belt Rain8:57 Brazil Corn Update10:30 Grain Shipments11:27 Bitcoin🌽 Corn Pops Higher!Corn futures posted an upside reversal on Monday! 📈 The Dec25 contract hit new life-of-contract lows before rallying nearly 6 cents. Short covering and bargain buying helped lift the market—but gains were limited by favorable weather and expectations for a record-large crop. Traders remain cautious as President Trump steps up tariff threats.🌱 Crop Conditions Remain Strong 💪✅ US corn: 74% good-to-excellent—best for the week since 2016!✅ US soybeans: 70% good-to-excellent—also second best in a decade!Only 5% of each crop is rated poor to very poor. That’s bullish for yield potential!🌾 Wheat Update 🚜🌱 Spring wheat: 54% good-to-excellent (up from 50% last week).🧊 Winter wheat harvest: 63% complete, still running slightly behind average and much slower than last year.🌧️ Rain Returns + Heat on Deck ☀️The Corn Belt is wet again this week with widespread rainfall expected in the 5-day and 5-10 day windows. 🌦️⚠️ But look out! CropProphet says the 8–14 day outlook shows temps averaging +4.3°F above normal.🔥 Heat could return as a key market factor.🇧🇷 Brazil’s Harvest Lagging 🐢Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is just 40% complete—way behind last year’s 74% pace. Despite delays, both USDA and Conab still forecast a record-large 132mmt crop.📉 Largest weekly harvest gain so far this season—but still playing catch-up.🚢 Exports Sluggish 📦👀 Corn: 1.3mmt inspected last week (down 18% WoW).🥜 Soybeans: Weak at just 147,045mt (down 63% WoW).🌾 Wheat: Better, near top end of expectations at 439,533mt.₿ Bitcoin Blasts Higher! 🚀Bitcoin surged 3.4% on Monday to hit a new all-time high of $123,205 💰 before cooling off.🧠 "Crypto Week" is here—Congress debates 3 major crypto bills.💸 $2.7B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs last week—fifth-best inflow on record.📈 Year-to-date: +30%. After doubling in 2024, BTC is still running hot.👇 Hit that like button, leave a comment with your market thoughts, and don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates! 🔔#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Bitcoin #GrainMarkets #Crypto #Weather #Farming #Commodities #Agriculture 🌽🧑‍🌾📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Too Much Rain??4:03 USDA Report8:15 Tariff News9:54 The Funds10:45 Flash Sale🎯 WEEKEND GRAIN WRAP-UP: Big Rains, Lower Stocks & New Tariffs! 🌽☔📉🔥 What a weekend! Here’s what’s moving the markets:🌧️ Weather WatchSubstantial rainfall soaked much of the US Corn Belt this weekend!💦 Best totals: Iowa, Illinois, northeast Missouri & southern Wisconsin🌦️ Scattered rains: Eastern Corn Belt📅 Forecast: More rain over the next 5–10 days🌡️ Temps: Near-normal now, but above-normal coming in the 8–14 day outlook📉 USDA Report RecapCorn futures fell Friday… despite a friendly USDA update:📦 Ending stocks cut to 1.34B bu—lowest in 4 years!🚢 Record export forecast at 2.75B bu🌽 2025/26 corn production trimmed to 15.7B bu (still record high)🌱 Soybean crop adjusted to 4.34B bu📏 Yields? Still unchanged... but the market might be pricing in much higher yields already 🤔🇺🇸 Tariff TroublePresident Trump is back with more tariffs:📆 Starting August 1: 30% tariff on goods from Mexico & EU⚙️ Possible exemptions for companies that move manufacturing to the US⚠️ Retaliation? Trump says any response tariffs will be added on top🌍 EU & Mexico = 1/3 of total US imports🇲🇽 Mexico = #1 buyer of US corn🇪🇺 The EU is the #2 buyer of US soybeans and #5 of US corn💰 Money Flow: Fund Activity🟢 Corn: Funds net buyers of 10k contracts (1st time in 6 weeks!)🔴 Soybeans: Net sellers of 7k🟢 SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k📊 Check out the Fund Tracker charts below!🫘 Flash Sale Alert!🇲🇽 Mexico booked 219,900mt (8M bu) of new crop soybeans for 2025/26📈 New crop soybean sales are already 4% ahead of USDA’s target!👇 Hit LIKE if you enjoy these updates, and don’t forget to SUBSCRIBE for more grain market insights!💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are we underestimating this corn yield?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Non-Drought and Illinois Rain6:36 USDA Preview14:50 Export Sales17:42 CONAB20:21 USDA Secretary Mackenzie24:07 Flash Sale🌾 USDA Report Today USDA will release its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report at 11:00am CST. 📉 July rarely brings yield changes, so traders will focus on demand. Corn export pace could lead to higher old-crop exports—but lower feed demand might offset it. 🌍 Global balance sheet adjustments also likely. 🌧️ Drought Monitor Update Rain helped drought in western Missouri, southwest Iowa & northern Minnesota. 🌾 But conditions worsened in central/northern Illinois & Michigan. ⚠️ New drought concerns in western Ohio, southern Indiana & northern Kentucky. High Plains: Nebraska improved, but drought deepened in northeast North Dakota, central South Dakota, & western Kansas. US areas in drought: 🌽 Corn 12% | 🌱 Soybeans 9% | 🌾 Winter Wheat 26% | 🌱 Spring Wheat 35% | 🐄 Cattle 16%  📈 Export Sales Strong Corn sales surged to 1.3mmt (50mil bu), 70% above the 4-week average—Mexico led buying. Soybeans at 503,000mt (18mil bu), up 9% w/w; unknown destinations were top buyers. Wheat at 567,800mt (21mil bu), slightly down w/w but 37% above the 4-week average; South Korea led demand.🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Crop Record Conab forecasts corn at 132mmt—up 2.9% from last month & 14.3% higher than last season. 🌽 Boost driven by a strong second crop (+16%). Corn exports raised to 36mmt (+6%). Slight cut to soybean forecast: now 169.5mmt, still up 14.7% vs last season.  🐄 Feeder Cattle Imports Halted USDA suspended Mexican feeder cattle imports after a new screwworm case, just 370 miles south of the border. 🇲🇽 Mexican President Sheinbaum called it an overreaction. Imports had resumed only Monday at an Arizona port after a May closure. YTD imports through April were 193,000 head, down ~60% from last year.  🚢 Flash Corn Sale US exporters sold 110,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26. 🌽 New crop corn sales are off to a strong start—the third best since 2020/21.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 More Government Cash3:34 "Ideal" Weather?7:11 Soybean Selloff8:18 Brazil Tariffs9:46 Strong Ethanol Production🇺🇸💰 USDA ROLLS OUT $16 BILLION IN DISASTER AID! | Market Moves, Weather Boost & New Tariff Drama 🇧🇷🌽🌪️ USDA Disaster Aid Incoming!The USDA just announced $16 BILLION in disaster aid for farmers hit by natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 🌾💵. This Supplemental Disaster Relief Program rolls out in two stages:✅ Stage 1: Available NOW for producers who already received insurance or NAP payments. Prefilled apps are in the mail ✉️.🍂 Stage 2: Launches early fall for shallow or uninsured losses.This is part of $30 billion total in 2024 farm and ranch relief 🐄🌽. Don’t miss your chance—talk to your FSA office today!🌧️ Perfect Timing: Corn Belt Gets a Soaker!A widespread rain system is soaking key states: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Missouri, and moving east. Even fringe acres in OK and KS get a drink 🌧️🌱. Cooler temps on deck = big win for crop health!📉 Soybeans Slide AgainNov25 beans dropped another 10¢ to $10.07. Traders are nervous 😬:Ongoing tariff concerns with China 🇨🇳Trump vows to enforce reciprocal tariff policy Aug 1 ⏳Fund selling + great weather = bearish setup📉 This could be a technical breakdown after weeks of sideways chop.🇧🇷 Brazil Hit With 50% Tariff!Trump targets Brazil with his biggest tariff yet—50% on imports starting Aug 1 🔥He calls it a message to BRICS and a defense of the US dollar 💵⚔️. This hit soybean sentiment hard, and the USD surged 2% on the real. 📈🛢️ Ethanol Bump!🚀 Production up 1% WoW, 3% YoY📉 Stocks dipped slightly but still high💰 Margins looking better for producers👉 Like, comment, and SUBSCRIBE for daily ag & market updates!📬 Tap the 🔔 to never miss an alert—especially when billions are on the table!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China, Get the Hell Out!3:58 Tuesday Selloff7:52 Brazil Export Problems9:09 Tariff Update10:38 Wheat Purchase Agreements11:47 Flash Sales🎯 US Cracks Down on Foreign Farmland Ownership + Grain Market Movers! 🌽📉🌎🚨 National Farm Security Alert!The Trump administration is taking major steps to restrict foreign ownership of U.S. farmland—especially from China 🇨🇳. Under the new National Farm Security Action Plan, the USDA will team up with state leaders and the Treasury Department to review land purchases more closely. Fines for false or late filings will jump to 25% 💰. In 2023, foreign ownership rose to 45 million acres—but less than 1% is held by China. 🌽 Corn Futures Slide AgainCorn prices dropped for the second day as the Dec25 contract settled near $4.14/bu. The USDA crop report showed 74% of corn is rated good-to-excellent—the best for this week since 2018! A mild forecast with scattered rains is keeping crop stress low and boosting yield outlooks 📊.🇧🇷 Brazilian Corn Faces Export JamsBrazil's corn exports are up 📈, but soybeans may clog the ports. China is buying big on beans, but is pulling back on corn after a strong domestic crop. Brazil will have to turn to Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam to make up the gap—but those markets won’t match China’s demand.📦 Trump's Tariff Clock Is TickingTrump says no more extensions—his reciprocal tariffs hit Aug 1. Copper will face a 50% tariff, causing a historic price spike 📈🪙. Imported drugs could see 200% tariffs unless production shifts to the US. More sectors may follow: semiconductors, metals, and more.🌾 Indonesia Locks in US Wheat DealTo secure a trade agreement, Indonesia will purchase $1.25B in US wheat through 2030. This year’s target: 800,000mt—up 8% YoY 📄. Future annual buys will rise to 1mmt. Wheat still makes up a small portion of Indonesia’s total grain imports, but more deals on corn and soybeans could follow!🚢 Flash Sales!The USDA announced:• 📦 144,000mt soybean meal to 🇵🇭 Philippines• 🌽 112,776mt (4M bushels) of corn to 🇲🇽 MexicoDon’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay on top of all the latest ag policy, weather, and market news! 📺✅

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Monday Selloff3:07 Trade Stuff4:33 Corn Yield Prospects9:23 The Funds10:21 Grain Shipments11:15 Flash Sale📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide on Weather & Trade Letdown 🌽🌦️Monday brought a sharp sell-off in grain futures, with Dec25 corn falling 🌽 16¢ to ~$4.21 and Nov25 soybeans plunging 🌱 29¢ to ~$10.21. Why the drop? 🌤️ Ideal Midwest weather continues, and traders were let down by no new trade deals from President Trump’s Iowa speech last week. 📉📊💼 Trump Turns Up the Heat on Tariffs 🇺🇸📑The President sent tariff warning letters to key trade partners. 📬 Japan & South Korea—major US corn buyers—now face potential 25% tariffs if no deal is reached by August 1. 🌏 Countries aligning with BRICS policies (like 🇨🇳 China and 🇧🇷 Brazil) could face an extra 10% tariff.🌽 Crop Conditions Shine ☀️• Corn: 74% good-to-excellent, best early July rating since 2018• Soybeans: 66% good-to-excellent, best since 2020 (excl. 2023)Analysts eye above-trend corn yields—potentially 184.6 to 188.2 bpa based on strong early ratings 📈🌾 Wheat Update• Spring wheat slips for the 3rd week ➡️ 50% G/E (below avg)• Winter wheat harvest hits 53%, just under average💰 Money Flow & Export Buzz 💸• Funds increased their short in corn (net short: 190k contracts)• Corn exports: Up 8% week-over-week, +46% YoY 🚢• Soybean & wheat shipments: Strong, near top end of expectations• Flash sale: 135,000mt corn to Mexico, spanning two crop years 🇲🇽👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments!✅ Subscribe for more grain market insights!#Corn #Soybeans #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #Wheat #FarmingNews #CropConditions #Exports #USDA #Commodities #GrainFutures #Agriculture 🌽🌎📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 No Trade Deals, Markets Tumble2:07 OBBB and Farmers3:42 Tariff Deadlines6:38 Drought/Weather Update8:23 Record Corn Export Program Possible?9:50 Russia Slashes Wheat Export Tax10:57 Flash Sales🇺🇸 President Trump’s Rally in Iowa: “One Big Beautiful Bill” Signed Into Law! 🚜📉🔥President Trump took the stage in Des Moines on Thursday, celebrating the passage of his massive new tax and spending bill — claiming it will “Make America Great Again” 🇺🇸💵. While no new trade deals were announced (despite trader hopes), he highlighted 🔻 egg prices, 🔥 US military action in Iran, and ⬇️ border crossings. He also reassured farmers their labor force is safe, though details were thin. 🌽🚫 Corn & soybean futures are sharply lower this morning as trade rumors fizzled out.📜 What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”?✅ $68.3B in new farm program funding✅ Higher PLC & ARC reference prices for this crop year✅ Increased payment limits & lifted income caps✅ Up to 30M new base acres allowed (2019–2023 history)✅ $6.3B for crop insurance over 10 years✅ Expanded premium support for beginning farmers✅ 🇺🇸 US-only feedstock rule for biofuel tax credits (2026)✅ 🔁 Extension of 45Z through 2029✅ ✂️ SAF credit cut from $1.75 ➡️ $1.00/gal✅ ⛽️ Boost to biomass-based diesel🛃 Tariff Deadline Extended?Originally set for July 9, the tariff deadline may be pushed to August 1 for countries still negotiating 🤝. Sec. Bessent says talks with 18 major partners are ongoing — with frameworks announced for 🇬🇧 UK, 🇨🇳 China, and 🇻🇳 Vietnam. Still pending: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇪🇺 EU.🌧️ Drought Update: Big Improvement!Thanks to recent rains, drought conditions dropped sharply across the 🌽 Corn Belt and 🌾 High Plains!🔹 Corn: 12% in drought🔹 Soybeans: 8%🔹 Winter wheat: 24%🔹 Spring wheat: 29%🔹 Cattle areas: 18%📦 Export Sales Recap:🔹 Corn: 532,700mt ➡️ ⬇️ 28% vs. last week🔹 Soybeans: 462,400mt ➡️ ⬆️ 15% vs. last week🔹 Wheat: 586,000mt ➡️ ⬆️ strong sales led by 🇵🇭 Philippines📢 Flash Sales Alert:✔️ 150,000mt corn✔️ 226,000mt soybeans✔️ 195,000mt soymeal (spread across 24/25 & 25/26)🌍 Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to Zero!🇷🇺 In a surprise move, Russia slashed its wheat export tax to zero for July 9–15 to boost weak overseas demand. June wheat exports were just 1.1mmt — a fraction of last year’s volume. Expect volatility in global wheat markets to continue.📊 See all charts below & don’t miss today’s premium breakdown with Paul Neiffer!👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more critical ag market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump, Iowa and Trade Deals4:45 Vietnam/US Trade Deal6:50 US Weather Update8:33 Ethanol Production11:45 Stock Market Records🎤🇺🇸 President Trump Visits Iowa: Big Trade Talk & Market Moves! 🌽📈📍 LIVE from the Iowa State Fairgrounds!President Trump takes the stage tonight at 7:30pm CST as part of the America250 Kick-Off Celebration. In a recent Truth Social post, he thanked Iowans for their strong support over the past three elections and teased major updates on ag trade 👀🚜🌎 🌾 Global Trade BuzzRumors are flying about possible new trade deals with China & India 📈Speculation alone sent grain markets soaring yesterdayTrump’s Iowa visit may bring 🔥 announcements🇻🇳 Vietnam Deal Announced!Trump revealed a new US-Vietnam agreement:✅ $2B in American ag purchases✅ Tariff-free entry for US goods⛔ 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports + 40% on transshipped goodsVietnam may not be a game-changer like China, but it’s a solid win for US ag 💪☀️🌧️ Corn Belt Weather OutlookNear-normal rainfall expected next 7 daysDry in central/eastern Corn Belt short termWetter pattern shifts eastward 8–14 day rangeTemps staying 1–4°F above normal = continued heat risk 🌡️🍻 Ethanol SnapshotWeekly production: 1.08M bpd (down slightly but still strong)Stocks high at 24.12M barrelsMargins improved over the past week 💵📊 Markets React to Trade News📈 S&P 500 hit record high (+0.5%)💻 Nasdaq also set new record (+1%)📉 Dow dipped slightlyInvestors eye more trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline⚠️ ADP data shows surprise job losses — watch today’s jobs report for Fed rate clues!👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments! Will Trump drop trade bombshells tonight?🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates on grain, trade, and markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!0:52 190 Corn Yield?5:40 US Weather7:28 Big Brazil Corn Crop9:14 Farmer Sentiment11:35 Biofuel and Senate🌽 Corn Yield Chatter Heats Up! 🔥There's buzz in the trade about US corn yields. Some analysts suggest yields could be 2–5% above trend, placing the national average anywhere from 184.6 to 190.1 bpa. But others argue that such numbers are unlikely due to record acreage (95.2M planted) and reduced input use from farmers. I’m not picking a side—but the chatter is loud enough to mention. 👂💬🌦️ Weather Watch: Scattered Rains & Heat ☀️Over the next 5 days, only scattered rainfall is expected—mainly in Minnesota & Wisconsin.🌀 Euro vs. GFS disagreement: Euro model = wetter outlookGFS model = dry in the east🔥 Above-normal temps will persist, and the 8–14 day forecast suggests more heat (though ensemble data is cooler). 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update: StoneX Raises the Bar 📈StoneX now pegs Brazil’s corn crop at a record 136.1 MMT, up from 134 MMT, with the second crop at 108.2 MMT.🫘 Brazil soybean forecast also bumped up slightly to 168.8 MMT.🇺🇸 For reference, USDA’s Brazil corn estimate is still at 130 MMT—that’s a 240M bushel difference! USDA & CONAB update next week.📉 Farmer Sentiment Drops on Trade Worries 🧠The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer fell to 146 in June, down 12 points from May.🌍 Main concern? Ag exports.46% believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt income. 27% believe they’ll help. 🛢️ Biofuel Battle: Big Oil vs. Farmers ⚔️A fight is brewing over the 45Z tax credit.Farm groups want it limited to feedstocks from North America 🌎The oil industry opposes this, saying it would raise fuel prices ⛽👉 This policy would boost soybean oil demand and align with Trump’s “America First” agenda. 🇺🇸🔔 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let's talk grain markets! 🌾🗣️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Ratings Improve3:15 USDA Snoozefest8:39 US Weather10:19 Big Brazil Corn Crop11:44 Cattle and Mexico Border13:03 Grain Shipments14:22 Flash Sale🌽 Crop Conditions Improve! USDA Surprises & Brazil Corn Booms! 🌱👋 Welcome back! In this update, we’re diving into the latest crop condition ratings, trade surprises from the USDA, weather outlooks, and key developments out of Brazil and the southern US border. Let’s dig in! 🚜📊🌽 Corn Conditions ClimbNational corn rated 73% good-to-excellent 📈 — best since 2020!Trade expected 70%… surprise!Only 5% of the crop is poor/very poor 🚫🌱 Soybeans Steady66% good-to-excellent, unchanged and above the 5-year average📉 Futures PressureNew crop corn flirting with fresh lows this morning as ratings improve…📋 USDA June 30th Report: Mostly a SnoozerCorn acres: 95.2M vs. 95.3M est.Soybean acres: 83.4M vs. 83.5M est.Corn stocks in line ✅, soy and wheat stocks a touch high🌤️ Weather OutlookDry week ahead, especially for central and eastern Corn Belt 🔥Western Iowa and Minnesota get the best rain8–14 day forecast looks wetter 🌧️ (Euro model more optimistic than GFS)Heat stays for now, but relief may come next week 🌡️🇧🇷 Brazil Corn SurpriseAgRural bumps total output to 130.6 MMT 🚛Safrinha corn: record 103.4 MMTHarvest pace still behind last year (18% vs 49%) ⏳Big supply, but delays persist…🐄 Feeder Cattle Border ReopensUSDA starts gradual reopening for Mexican imports 🐮First port: Douglas, AZ—more to followScrewworm progress equals cautious optimismMarket already supported by lowest herd since 1950s 🔥🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 1.4 MMT down 9% vs last week, but +65% YoYSoybeans: 224K MT, soft vs last yearWheat: 434K MT, strong print! 💪📦 Flash Sale!204,000 MT of soybean cake and meal sold to unknown destinations🧠 Tap into the trends and don’t miss a beat — subscribe for more updates!💬 What do YOU think the markets will do next? Drop your take in the comments below!#GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #USDA #CropProgress #AgNews #BrazilCorn #Weather #Exports #FeederCattle #Farming

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:40 Corn and Soybean Bounce2:00 Hot and Dry3:59 The Funds6:11 USDA Preview7:40 Brazil Harvest8:52 Record-High Stock Market11:24 Flash Sale🎥 Corn & Soybeans Bounce Back + USDA Reports & Brazil Harvest Update! 🌽📈🌎👋 Hey there, grain market watchers! In this video, we’re covering all the BIG moves from Friday’s trade, including a nice rebound in corn and soybean futures, updates from the USDA, and what’s happening with Brazil’s delayed safrinha corn harvest. Let’s dive in! 👇🌽 Grain Markets ReboundAfter tagging multi-month lows earlier this week, Dec25 corn climbed back 6¢ to $4.27/bu, while Nov25 soybeans added ~8¢ to settle near $10.25/bu.✅ Improved US–China trade sentiment📉 Weakening US dollar📊 Stock market rally☀️ Corn Belt Weather OutlookThe 7-day outlook calls for minimal rain across key US growing areas.📍 Illinois, southern Iowa, and Indiana especially dry🔥 Temps expected to run 2.9°F above normal (CropProphet)🌧️ Long-range models hint at more rain—but will it be enough?💰 Fund Positioning (CFTC)"The Funds" are still bearish:🔻 Sold 6k corn contracts last week📉 Total of 321k corn contracts sold since mid-April🌱 Net sellers of 27k soybeans🌾 Net buyers of 10k SRW wheat📊 USDA Reports Drop at 11am CSTPlanted Acreage & Quarterly Stocks on deck!🌽 Corn acreage expected slightly higher vs. March🌱 Soybean acreage likely to rise too📉 Corn stocks seen down ~7% YoY📈 Soy stocks up 1%—a 5-year high🌾 Wheat stocks could be up 20%!🇧🇷 Brazil’s Safrinha Corn DelayedHarvest is way behind:🕐 Just 19.5% harvested vs. 47% last year🌧️ Wet April/May = soggy fields, high moisture📦 Slower progress, but record crop of 103.2mmt still expected📈 Equity Markets Soar🚀 S&P 500 closes at an all-time high (6,173)📊 Nasdaq & Dow also post gains💬 Investors growing used to Trump’s trade strategy💵 Fed hints at possible rate cuts = bullish sentiment🫘 Soybean Flash Sale to Mexico!📦 119,746mt (4 mil bushels) sold📅 Delivery in 2024/25 marketing year📈 Soybean sales up 11% YoY so far!📢 Don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop a comment with your thoughts on the upcoming USDA reports!🌱 Stay smart. Stay informed. Stay hedged. 💼📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇦🇷 Argentina Rushes Exports Ahead of Tariff Expiry Crop traders in Argentina are rushing to secure export licenses before tariff relief ends on June 30. President Javier Milei’s temporary cuts—🎯 soybean meal/oil from 31% to 24.5% and 🌽 corn from 12% to 9.5%—sparked a surge in exports, making June the busiest month since he took office. The move aimed to support farmers and boost foreign reserves ahead of October’s midterms. 🚜💰 Ag groups are urging an extension.  🌧️ Rain Brings Drought Relief Across U.S. Corn Belt Last week’s rainfall helped ease drought conditions across major growing regions like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. 🙌 Just 6% of the Corn Belt remains in drought. Nebraska and the High Plains also saw some improvements. 📊 Drought by Crop: Corn: 16%Soybeans: 12%Winter Wheat: 20%Spring Wheat: 25%Cattle Areas: 18%📉 U.S. Export Sales DipCorn: 741,200mt (29M bu), ↓18% from last week; 🇨🇴 Colombia top buyer. Soybeans: 402,900mt (15M bu), ↓16% weekly but ↑83% vs. 4-week avg; 🇳🇱 Netherlands top buyer. Wheat: 255,200mt (9M bu), ↓40% from last week; 🇯🇵 Japan top buyer. 📅 Key USDA Report Coming Monday The USDA will release the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Monday morning. Expectations:Slight increases in 🌽 corn and 🌱 soybean acreageCorn stocks: ↓7% YoYSoybean stocks: ↑1%, 5-year highWheat stocks: ↑20%, 4-year high 📉 Market action suggests traders expect a bearish report. 🇷🇺 Russia’s Banking Sector in Trouble? Analysts warn of a potential financial crisis by 2026. Rising bad debt, high interest rates, and borrowers falling behind on loans are fueling a credit crunch. 💸 Despite record bank profits in 2024, inflation and war-focused spending are straining the private sector. Trillions of rubles in bad loans may already be in the system. 🚢 Soybean Flash Sale & Egypt Corn OrderUSDA reported a 110,000mt corn sale to 🇪🇬 Egypt for 2024/25.Cumulative soybean sales are up 11% YoY for the current marketing year.☀️ Weekend Weather Outlook: Warm & Wet Rainfall is expected across the 🌽 Midwest through Sunday, with above-normal temps. Agronomists are confident: subsoil moisture is strong going into July, a critical month for corn growth. 🌾🌦️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇧🇷 Brazil Ups Biofuel Mandates Starting August 1, Brazil will increase ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%. This move could make Brazil self-sufficient in gasoline for the first time in 15 years. Ethanol mainly comes from sugarcane 🌱, but corn-based ethanol 🌽 is growing fast. About 70% of Brazil's biodiesel is made from soybeans.  🌧️ Soaking Rains Ahead for Corn Belt Heavy rainfall is expected across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, with precipitation forecast at 152% of normal. The Upper Midwest—especially eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—will get the most rain. Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will also see showers. Temperatures will be warmer in the Eastern Corn Belt and cooler west of I-29. Overall, temps will run about 0.8°F above normal.  💵 Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Fed Outlook Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers it's tough to predict how tariffs will impact inflation. Despite lower inflation and pressure from President Trump to cut rates, Powell urged caution, citing a strong economy and uncertain trade effects. Some Fed governors support a rate cut as early as July, but Powell warned inflation may rebound later this year. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize high interest rates for increasing government debt costs.  🛢️ Ethanol Output Slips, But Remains Strong US ethanol production dipped 2.5% last week to 1.1 million barrels/day but is still up 3.6% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.4 million barrels—well above seasonal norms. That’s up 1.2% from last week and 4.2% from last year. Margins, however, softened slightly, according to Reuters. 📉  📉 Dollar Drops as Tensions Ease The US dollar weakened this week following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Falling oil prices also removed a key support for the dollar. With Middle East tensions calming, the greenback’s direction now depends more on domestic data and Fed policy. Markets are currently pricing in 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. The Dollar Index is down nearly 10% in 2025, hitting its lowest point since March 2022.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🕊️ Israel-Iran Truce HoldsThe ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains intact. 🌙 Overnight calm continues, and international energy traders are closely watching developments. A Financial Times article explains that a symbolic, pre-communicated strike on a U.S. base in Qatar signaled the conflict would avoid damaging Iran’s key oil infrastructure. ⚠️ Fears about the Straits of Hormuz being closed — and disrupting global oil flow — were eased. Iran’s ally, 🇨🇳 China, would’ve been the hardest hit, giving Iran incentive to avoid escalation.🌽 July Corn Hits New LowsJuly corn futures traded to fresh life-of-contract lows Tuesday, breaking through levels not seen since August 2024. 📉 With first notice day approaching Friday, volume is shifting to the September and December contracts. Hedge funds have mostly rolled out, but ~200,000 contracts remain open. The July–September spread remains inverted, and some in the Eastern Corn Belt believe this could flip to a carry amid continued fund selling and ample commercial supplies. 🏦🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Crop Breaks RecordsBrazil is on track for a record-large second corn crop at 123.3 MMT, per Agroconsult. That’s 9.2% higher than May’s estimate and nearly 20% more than last year’s output. 🌧️ Favorable weather in April and May — especially in Mato Grosso — is boosting yields by nearly 12%. However, this bumper crop is raising concerns about added pressure on already weak domestic prices and sluggish export demand. 💰📦🚢 Corn Flash Sale to MexicoUSDA reported a big corn sale Tuesday: 630,000 MT (25 million bushels) sold to 🇲🇽 Mexico.554,400 MT (22M bu) for 2025/2675,600 MT (3M bu) for 2026/27📊 This supports demand sentiment but hasn’t turned the tide in weak futures yet.🌱 Soybean Oil Fills Chart GapsSoybean oil has slumped, dragged down by falling NYMEX diesel prices (down 40¢ since Sunday). 📉 It’s now testing chart gaps opened during the recent biofuel euphoria. Traders expect those gaps to fill — notably down to 51.19 in the December contract. Smaller gaps between 53.46 and 53.62 are also being eyed. 📈 Technical traders are positioning cautiously with tight stop-losses around those levels. 🧮🌤️ Weather Outlook: Warm but MoistWeather remains mostly non-threatening through early July. ☀️ Both the Euro and GFS models have backed off earlier rain projections, but 6–10-day forecasts still look hot and moist. CropProphet’s 15-day outlook is friendly for soybeans 🌱 and mixed for corn 🌽, with the Upper Midwest benefiting most. However, corn still shows slight downside vs. USDA estimates due to last week’s crop rating drop.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Market Surprise: Weakness Despite geopolitics, traders were caught off guard Monday. Despite major geopolitical events over the weekend, markets weakened instead of rallying. Crude oil briefly hit ~$78—the highest since January—but reversed sharply after breaking Friday’s ~$74 close. 🚫📈With energy markets losing steam, grain futures—linked through biofuels—also fell under pressure. 🌾🔻🌽 Corn Conditions Dip US corn crop conditions fell for the first time this season: 🔹 70% rated good/excellent, down from 72% last week 🔹 Still above the 5-year average of 64%Biggest declines: Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska. Outside the Corn Belt: sharp drops in Colorado, Texas, and North Dakota. 🌦️🌱 Soybean Ratings Hold Steady Soybeans remained at 66% good/excellent, above the 63% 5-year average. While most Corn Belt states saw declines, only Michigan and Ohio were below the national average. 🌿✅🌾 Wheat Ratings Slide Again: Winter wheat: 🔻 49% good/excellent, down from 52% 🔻 Below analysts’ expectations ⚠️ Harvest is at 19%—behind the 28% average.Spring wheat also declined: 🔻 54% good/excellent vs. 57% last week. 📉 Matches 5-year average but misses expectations Montana and South Dakota trailed the national average. 📊🚢 Export Summary 📦 Corn: 1.5mmt exported, down 13% vs. last week, but up 28% YoY. 📦 Soybeans: 192,890mt ▪️ Below expectations ▪️ -14% WoW, -45% YoY📦 Wheat: 254,782mt ▪️ -34% WoW, -26% YoY💰 Fund Positions & CFTC Data: Funds grew more bearish on corn: 🔻 Net short increased by 19k to 169k contracts—the most since September. Meanwhile: 🟢 Net buyers of 27k soybean and 13k SRW wheat contracts 📉 SRW net short now 74k—the smallest since February. Funds were once seen as “indecisive,” but the growing short positions suggest a clear bearish bias. With the CN:CU spread nearly at carry, rolling shorts to Sept becomes cheaper—adding fuel to their stance. 📉📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Iran and Markets3:02 Soybean and Wheat Rally4:45 Drought + US Weather9:12 Export Sales10:31 Ethanol Production11:32 Flash Sale12:02 Cattle on Feed🔥 Markets React to Middle East Tensions 🌍💥Oil prices surged Sunday night after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with President Trump warning of further action and Iran vowing “everlasting consequences.” Despite the drama, no physical disruptions to crude shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz have occurred. 🌊⛽️ Some analysts say the recent $10/bbl spike is already pricing in risk. Grain traders? Not impressed—wheat opened lower despite geopolitical fireworks. 📉🌱 Soybeans & Wheat Hit Highs... Then Fade 📈Friday brought fresh multi-month highs in soybean and spring wheat futures! 🚀• Soybeans (Nov25) nearly posted a calendar-year high, fueled by bullish biofuel news and a strong Brazilian real 🇧🇷• Spring Wheat (Dec25) led the wheat complex higher on Middle East tension and U.S. crop concerns 🌾But both markets faded into the weekend. 🌧️ Drought Conditions Improve in Corn Belt 🌽USDA’s latest drought monitor shows big progress:• Only 7.5% of the Corn Belt is in drought vs. 32% earlier this year!• IA, WI, MN saw improvement. 🌧️• ND and NE also got relief• But KS? Slight deterioration 😕🔹 Corn: 17% in drought🔹 Soybeans: 13%🔹 Winter Wheat: 14%🔹 Spring Wheat: 22%🔹 Cattle: 19%🚢 Export Sales Rebound 📦• Corn: 903,800 mt—Japan 🇯🇵 leads• Soybeans: 539,500 mt—Germany 🇩🇪 surprise buyer• Wheat: 427,200 mt—Taiwan 🇹🇼 tops the listCorn sales are now +26% vs. last year! 🟢🍺 Ethanol Stays Strong, Margins Weaken• Production: 1.11mil bbl/day (↓1% WoW, ↑5% YoY)• Stocks: 24.12mil bbl (seasonally high)• Margins slipping per Reuters 💸Still, output remains near record highs. 🚛🐄 Cattle on Feed: Neutral to Bullish 📋• Total: 11.4 million head (↓1% YoY)• Placements: 92% of last year (bullish surprise)• Marketings: 90% of last yearOngoing tight supplies continue to support the market. 📈👇 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your market take in the comments! 👇🔔 Stay informed, stay sharp.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Housekeeping1:06 MAHA and Farm Groups3:45 45Z News and Tax Package5:56 US Weather Forecasts9:11 Brazil Currency10:48 Meal Flash Sale🔥 Big Moves in DC, Weather, and the Dollar! 🌽💥🌱 🚨 MAHA Report Pushback!Over 250 ag groups—like the Farm Bureau—are calling out the MAHA report for misleading claims about pesticides 🚜. They’ve urged the commission to open up for public comment and include real voices from the field 👨‍🌾. The next report drops in August!💸 Tax Talk: 45Z Gets a Twist!The Senate’s version of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” just landed. It extends the 45Z tax credit but slaps a 20% penalty on foreign feedstocks 🌍. Plus, corn ethanol gets a win with the removal of land use penalties, and livestock manure-based fuels get the green light 🐄⚡. EPA vs. Congress? Mixed signals abound 🤷‍♂️.🌧️ Weather Wobbles & Crop OutlookForecasts turned slightly drier, with GFS data now calling for 84% of normal rainfall this week. Temps look 🔥 above average across the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. But don’t count out more rain during the extended outlook.💵 Dollar Drops = Soybean BoostThe US dollar just hit a 7-month low vs. the Brazilian Real 📉. Why? Investors chasing higher returns in Brazil, where interest rates are sky-high 📈. A stronger Real = less selling by Brazilian farmers, which helps US soybeans shine on the global market 🌎🌱.🚢 Flash Sale Alert!US exporters just sold 120,000mt of soybean cake & meal to unknown destinations 🌟. That makes 400,000mt sold via flash sales this year—demand is alive and well! 🫘👉 Stay tuned for more updates—and don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights! 📲💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Belt Heat2:45 Bean Oil, Meal6:07 Crop Ratings and Progress8:35 Corn Shipments are Still Strong9:50 NOPA Crush11:06 Russia Wheat12:09 Middle East Update🌡️ Scorching Temps & Surging Soy Oil! 🚀🔥 🌽 US Corn Belt Heats UpTemps across the Corn Belt are expected to run 6.4°F above normal this week, according to GFS and CropProphet data. Highs in the 90s possible by Sunday! But don't panic—rainfall remains above normal in both the short and medium term. 🌧️ 🛢️ 🌱 Soybean Oil Explodes HigherSoybean oil futures 📈 hit a 20-month high and traded limit-up again Monday following the EPA's aggressive biofuel blending targets. Meanwhile, soybeans spiked but closed flat, and corn dropped ~10¢ on weather pressure. See updated charts for soybean oil and meal. 📊🌾 Crop Conditions Update✅ Corn: Rated 72% good-to-excellent (up 1%)📉 Soybeans: Dropped to 66% good-to-excellent📉 Winter Wheat: Fell to 52% G/E, despite being best for the week since 2020✅ Spring Wheat: Climbed to 57% G/E—beating expectations again!💡 Big moves seen in states like ND, TX, WI, MI, and NC. 🚢 US Export Inspections🌽 Corn exports: 1.7 mmt—near high end of expectations🌱 Soybeans: Weak at just 215k mt🌾 Wheat: Up on the week but still behind last year🏭 May NOPA Crush ReportUS soybean crush hit 192.8 million bushels—a May record 📅🥫 Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.4 billion lbs, the lowest May figure since 2004📉 Both metrics came in under trade expectations. 🌍 Russia Wheat Outlook Mixed➕ Sovecon boosts forecast to 82.8mmt⚠️ Rostov region declares agricultural emergency amid drought🌾 Deputy PM sees 135mmt total grain output for 2025🌍 Middle East Tensions Rise AgainPresident Trump has urged evacuation of Tehran. 🛫Iran signals possible nuclear talks—but only if US avoids Israel conflictIsrael continues strikes. Analysts warn of major trade & oil disruptions if escalation continues.💥Crude trades near $71/bbl—down from recent highs.Smash that 👍 Like, hit 🔔 Subscribe, and let us know what YOU think in the comments! 👇Stay informed. Stay sharp. 🌾

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Biofuel Blockbuster4:06 Middle East and Crude5:59 US Weather and Market Impact9:40 The Funds10:31 Brazil Corn Harvest🎥 EPA Biofuel Boost, Middle East Tensions & Corn Market Moves! 🌽🛢️⚔️📈 BIG news from the EPA!The agency just proposed new biofuel blending targets, raising total mandates to 24.02B gallons in 2026 and 24.46B in 2027. The new quotas fall short of industry recommendations but deliver a major win for biodiesel, with the biomass-based diesel target jumping to 5.61B gallons – above both current and proposed levels. Soybean oil futures exploded 🚀, and soybeans rallied to a three-week high. 🌍 War in the Middle East IntensifiesIsrael and Iran continue trading deadly missile attacks. Casualties are rising on both sides, and President Trump has warned that US involvement remains on the table. Energy markets reacted fast—crude oil surged 7%, and natural gas climbed 3%. 🌦️ Weekend Rainfall in the Corn BeltScattered storms hit parts of the Midwest, with radar showing activity across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Forecasts show 1"+ rain expected across much of the Corn Belt this week. Corn futures are trading lower to start Monday.📊 Fund Positioning UpdateThe latest CFTC report shows money managers growing more bearish on corn, pushing their net short to 150K contracts—the most since September! Meanwhile, funds added soybeans and wheat.🇧🇷 Brazil's Second Crop Corn Harvest SlowsHarvest progress remains sluggish at just 5.6% complete, compared to 14% last year. Delays from late planting and poor weather continue to hamper fieldwork. 👇 Stay informed! Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. Full EPA release linked below!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Friendly Corn Numbers (USDA)4:12 Crude SURGES6:19 US Dollar is Weak9:25 US Drought / Weather14:46 Biofuel News / RVOs16:49 Export Sales18:40 ICE and Ag📊 USDA Report, Soaring Oil Prices, & Dollar Dive! | Market Recap 🌽🛢️💵Welcome back! In today’s update, we’re breaking down a packed Thursday full of market-moving headlines 👇🌽 USDA Report RecapNo shocks here! USDA raised old crop corn exports 📈 and trimmed carryout, while leaving soybeans unchanged. Wheat exports saw a bump too. Despite the friendly tone, corn couldn’t catch a bid. Traders seem laser-focused on crop weather now! 🌦️🛢️ Crude Oil Surges 🚨WTI crude spiked nearly 12% overnight after Israel launched major strikes on Iran, hitting nuclear and military targets. Iran confirmed damage at Natanz. With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz boiling over, global oil markets are on edge. ⚠️💵 US Dollar Hits 3-Year LowThe dollar dropped to its weakest level since April 2022! The euro and pound surged as inflation and jobless data added pressure on the Fed to cut rates at its June 18 meeting. 📉🌾 Drought Monitor HighlightsCorn Belt weather was a mixed bag. Some areas improved, others worsened. Currently:→ Corn in drought: 18%→ Soybeans: 13%→ Wheat: up to 20%→ Cattle: 20% 🐄🧪 Biofuel Mandates IncomingThe EPA will announce 2026–27 blending targets today. Industry groups want to raise biomass-based diesel to 5.25B gallons, but the final target may fall short. Ethanol and biodiesel markets are watching closely. ⛽📉 Disappointing Export SalesCorn, soybean, and wheat export sales all fell short. Soybeans hit a marketing-year low. 📦 Weak demand continues to weigh on prices.👷‍♂️ Immigration Crackdown Hits AgAn ICE raid in Nebraska led to over 70 detentions at a meat plant. Labor shortages are growing in ag-heavy states like California too. Over half of US crop workers are undocumented. 🌱👉 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your market take!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 ADM Rug Pull3:17 Kim Reynolds and Eminent Domain4:39 US Weather5:53 USDA Preview8:46 Record Ethanol Production10:00 Weaker Dollar?11:30 US/China🌱 Soybean Bids Crash in the Midwest!Cash soybean prices took a nosedive in Illinois. 😳 ADM’s Decatur location slashed bids by 65¢ and flipped from July25 to Nov25 futures with a negative basis. Other processors quickly followed. ADM says they’ve got plenty of beans and expect a big crop 🌾. 🚫 Iowa Eminent Domain Bill VetoedGov. Kim Reynolds vetoed a bill limiting eminent domain for carbon pipelines. Critics say she sided with big donors over landowners 💰🚜. The move angered Republicans and sparked calls for a special session. Will it happen? 🤔🌧️ Corn Belt Weather WhiplashThe GFS outlook just flipped again! Wetter in the short term, but drier in the 8-14 day range ⛅. CropProphet pegs corn belt rain at 116% of normal early, then just 72% next week. Market? Still yawning 😴. 📊 USDA Report IncomingToday’s WASDE 📉 drops at 11am CST. Traders expect lower US corn ending stocks due to higher exports. No big moves expected for soybeans or wheat. Watch for Brazil corn surprises 🌽👀. 🍻 Ethanol Production Hits Record HighUS ethanol output surged to an all-time high last week 🚀. Stocks dropped to late-December levels, and margins improved 💵. Could this support corn prices? 💵 Paul Tudor Jones: USD to Slide?Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones sees the US dollar falling 10% over the next year 📉. He cites a steeper yield curve and a possible dovish Fed under Trump’s next pick. The dollar index is already down nearly 8% YTD 😬.🤝 New US-China Trade DealChina will ship more rare earths & magnets ⚙️. In return, the US will ease some export controls and allow more Chinese students. But Trump’s 55% tariff on Chinese goods stays in place 📦🇨🇳. Final approval still pending!👇 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!📢 Stay tuned for WASDE updates and more market analysis!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/China Deal2:31 Drier Forecast, Iowa??5:14 USDA Report Tomorrow8:48 US/Mexico9:57 John Deere, Right to Repair Stuff📢 US-China Reach Trade Consensus!After 20+ hours of talks in London, US and Chinese officials say they’ve struck a framework deal to implement the Geneva consensus! 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 China will accelerate rare earth exports, and the US is easing some export controls. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the deal adds “meat on the bones” of last month’s tariff truce. Next up: Trump and Xi review the agreement.🌦 Corn Belt Turns DrierThe latest Euro and GFS models shifted drier for central and western Corn Belt states — especially Iowa. Forecast maps from CropProphet show how rainfall expectations dropped significantly overnight. Temps are also trending above normal into the 6–10 and 8–14 day periods. 🌡📊 WASDE & Crop Production Report Coming!USDA drops fresh data this Thursday at 11am CST! Traders expect a cut to corn ending stocks, driven by stronger exports. Not much change is expected for soybeans or wheat. 🛠 US-Mexico Steel Deal CloseUS and Mexico are nearing a deal to reduce steel tariffs! A new quota system would allow tariff-free volumes based on past trade. Mexico—this year’s top US corn buyer—is calling the tariffs unjustified. 📉🌽⚖️ FTC vs Deere Moves ForwardA federal judge says the FTC’s antitrust lawsuit against John Deere will proceed. The case centers on “right to repair” restrictions. Five US states are backing the FTC. Deere says the claims are vague and without merit. 🚜⚖️👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more grain market breakdowns! 💬📈#GrainMarkets #CornBelt #TradeNews #WASDE #RightToRepair #USChina #USMexico #JohnDeere #CropForecast #AgNews 🌽📰

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Tumbles1:58 Too Much Rain for a Rally6:24 Crop Progress & Conditions9:36 Brazil Corn Update11:04 US/China Talks12:13 Grain Shipments🌽 Corn Futures Drop Amid Bearish Weather & Export Concerns 🌧️📉📉 Market MovesCorn futures fell sharply on Monday!• July '25 dropped 9¢ to ~$4.34• Dec '25 dropped 11¢ to ~$4.38Pressure came from a bearish US weather outlook and slowing export demand as Brazil’s second crop harvest ramps up. Private estimates peg fund net short positions at 125k contracts. 📊🌦️ Weather WatchRain returns later this week for parts of SD, MN, IA & WI, with widespread moisture expected in the 5–10 day outlook. Over the last 14 days, Corn Belt rainfall hit 107% of normal. CropProphet data suggests the drought threat is shrinking—but remember, July is still critical for corn yield! 🌧️🌽🚜 Crop ConditionsUS corn: 71% good/excellent, up from 69%Soybeans: 68% good/excellent, slightly better than last weekWinter wheat: 54% good/excellent, best since 2019Spring wheat: 53% good/excellent, rising for the second week🌎 Brazil Harvest UpdateBrazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is off to the slowest start since 2021—only 1.9% complete. Excess rain and late planting continue to delay progress. 🤝 US-China Trade TalksTalks extend into Day 2! Discussions center on export controls and rare earth minerals. The US may ease tech export restrictions in exchange for more mineral access from China. Officials described the mood as constructive. 🌐🚢 Export Inspection Data• Corn: 1.7 MMT—up 1% vs. last week, 24% YoY• Soybeans: 547k MT—up 81% WoW, 134% YoY• Wheat: 291k MT—down, but early in the marketing year👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Boring Weather Market3:28 US/China Update6:30 "The Funds"7:41 China Pathogen Smugglers8:40 Fake Screwworm Investigation🌧️ Rain Falls, Markets Stir, and Trade Talks Heat Up! ⚖️🌽📍 Weekend Weather RecapRain favored southern and eastern Corn Belt states including Missouri, IL, IN, OH, KY, TN — plus parts of KS, OK & north TX. While the west looks drier, both the Euro and GFS models suggest near-average rainfall over the next two weeks. 🌦️ Temps stay near-normal this week, with warmer weather possible 8–14 days out. Overall? A benign weather setup to start the week. 📉🌐 Rare Earths, EVs, and US-China Trade TalksChina just approved rare earth mineral exports following a call between Trump and Xi. 🌍 Trade talks kick off today in London as demand surges for key materials used in robotics and EVs. ⚙️🔋📊 Money Moves: COT Report Highlights"The Funds" slashed their net short in corn by 44k contracts — largest short since Sept! 🌽 They also trimmed soybean and spring wheat positions. 🧪 Fungal Pathogen Fears DebunkedExperts downplay the threat of a crop-damaging pathogen smuggled into the US, saying it’s already here, manageable, and not a major food safety risk. 🌾🧬🐄 Market Manipulation? Screwworm Rumor Sparks ProbeMissouri investigates a fake press release claiming New World screwworm was detected. 📉 The false alarm crashed cattle futures and now R-CALF USA wants the CFTC to dig deeper. 🕵️‍♂️Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay in the loop! 🔔👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Soybean/Corn Price Action and Trump5:24 US Weather8:45 Cattle Prices Surge11:46 Export Sales14:19 Trade Deficit16:37Jobless Claims🌱 Soybeans Climb on Trade HopeSoybean futures popped on Thursday! 📈 The July25 contract gained nearly 7¢, settling near $10.52 after a phone call between President Trump and President Xi reignited optimism around US-China trade talks. 🤝 A face-to-face meeting could be next!🌾 Grains Mixed on GeopoliticsChicago wheat added 2¢ 📊 amid rising Ukraine-Russia tensions, while corn futures ticked higher 🚜 but were capped by sluggish US export demand.🔥 Drought Monitor UpdateThe Corn Belt stayed mostly dry last week, worsening drought in IA, IL, MO & WI. 🌵 But only 10% of the region remains in drought—down from 32% earlier this year! The High Plains got relief thanks to widespread rains. ☔📊 Current Drought Impact:• Corn: 21%• Soybeans: 16%• Winter Wheat: 12%• Spring Wheat: 19%• Cattle: 21%🐮 Cattle Prices Hit Record Highs!Feeder & live cattle contracts soared to new records! 🚀 Front-month live cattle jumped $4.50 to $222.90, while feeders surged $5.28 to $309.15. Strong fat cattle prices, tight supplies & current feedlots = 🔥 fundamentals.🚢 US Export Sales Recap• 🌽 Corn: 37M bu – Up 3% W/W, Mexico top buyer• 🌱 Soybeans: 7M bu – Up 33% W/W, Bangladesh top buyer• 🌾 Wheat (25/26): 16M bu – Down 37% W/W, unknown buyers dominate📉 Record Drop in US Trade DeficitThe US trade gap fell by a record $76.7B in April, landing at $61.6B. 📉 Imports plunged 16.3% while exports rose 3% as businesses braced for tariffs. Biggest deficit drops came vs. China, the EU, and Vietnam. 🌍📈 Jobless Claims Rise AgainInitial jobless claims rose to 247K—highest since October. 📊 Continued claims dipped slightly but still sit above 2024 levels. Slowing hiring, trade anxiety, and lower consumer demand = labor market stress. 😬Don’t forget to like & subscribe for real-time grain market updates! 👇💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Problems3:04 Trump and China4:34 US Weather Update8:26 China Crop Pathogen Smugglers10:37 Ethanol Production12:39 NOAA Forecasters🌾 China’s Wheat Woes, Trade Tensions & Weather Swings! 🇨🇳🌦️🔥 Extreme Heat Hits China's Wheat CropChina’s key wheat regions just saw their hottest May since 1961. Some fields suffered yield losses of up to 50% due to drought! 😳🚜 Farmers with irrigation held steady, but questions linger about potential wheat imports. 🛑 Trump vs. Xi: Trade Talks StalledPresident Trump called Xi “extremely hard to deal with” as negotiations stall. 😤📞 A possible call could revive talks, but both sides are throwing blame after a May truce unraveled. Stay tuned for updates on this tense trade drama. 🎭📉🌧️ Corn Belt Forecast FlipYesterday’s “ultra-dry” GFS outlook? ❌ Probably wrong! New data suggests 82% of normal rainfall in the 8-14 day window. Still, the west looks dry in both GFS and Euro models. 🌽⚠️ 🧪 Crop Sabotage? Chinese Nationals ChargedTwo Chinese citizens face charges for smuggling a crop-damaging fungus—Fusarium graminearum—into the US. 🚨🌾 This pathogen can wreck wheat and poison livestock. Officials say the suspects had studied the fungus back in China. Yikes.⛽ Ethanol Record!US ethanol production just hit a weekly all-time high: 1.1M barrels/day! 📈💥 Stocks also surged to 24.4M barrels. Strong margins are back, according to Reuters. 🌀 NOAA Fully Staffed Ahead of Hurricane SeasonDespite federal layoffs, NOAA is ready. 💪🌪️ Commerce Secretary Lutnick says critical positions are being filled after a hiring freeze threatened weather coverage. With a wild hurricane season ahead, that’s good news. 🌊🌬️Don't forget to like, comment & subscribe for updates every week! 🧠📲✨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 GFS Turns Dry3:13 Wildfire Smoke6:38 Ag Barometer8:59 Ukraine Grain Update10:20 White House and Trade🌦️ Weather Models Diverge & Canadian Smoke Returns! 🌫️🌽 Forecast Shift?Some US weather models have trended drier! The latest GFS run shows minimal Corn Belt rainfall in the 8-14 day outlook. But don’t jump the gun—Euro offers a wetter view with near-normal precipitation. Recent rains hit NE, IA, MN, KS, MO, WI & IL. Radar’s active again this morning.🔥 Wildfire Smoke UpdateOver 200 wildfires are burning in Canada, with smoke spreading as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Minnesota is under a statewide air quality alert, while WI and MI face dangerous conditions. Smoke exposure isn't a crop killer short-term, but prolonged haze could hurt yields. 👃🚫🌱🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rises!The Ag Economy Barometer hit 158 in May—its highest since May 2021! Farmers are feeling better about both the present and future 📈. Worries about tariffs remain, but fewer producers expect major income hits. 🔍 🌾 Ukraine Crop TroubleUkraine's grain production could fall 10% this season due to weather delays and war disruptions. Oilseed production is also projected lower. Still, Black Sea wheat exports remain stable, and analysts expect nearly 41mmt in grain exports. 🤝 Trade Talks Heat UpThe White House is pushing for new trade agreements, urging partners to submit their best offers by today. Countries like Vietnam, Japan & India are in discussions. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to return July 8, so negotiations are ramping up fast. 📅Don't forget to like 👍 and subscribe 🔔 for more updates. Join the conversation in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Rain on the Radar2:58 Monday Selloff4:38 Crop Progress & Conditions11:11 Weaker US Dollar?13:02 Crude Rally14:21 Grain Shipments🌧️ Stormy Skies and Slumping Soybeans! 🌾🌩️ Weather UpdateRadar lit up this morning across the western Corn Belt! Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of the Plains saw active storms. CropProphet expects 1.5" of rain this week, with more on the way next week. Temps look cool out west ❄️ and warm in the east 🔥 — but overall, this remains a non-bullish setup for grains. Some of the driest areas are finally catching a drink! 🌧️🌽📉 Grain Market MovesSoybeans slid to a 2-month low on improved Brazil outlook and China trade tensions.Corn dipped as growing conditions improved.Wheat bucked the trend, up on a weaker dollar 💵 and Ukraine/Russia tensions.🌱 Crop Ratings SnapshotCorn: 69% G/E—slight gain from last week, planting 93% done ✅Soybeans: 67% G/E in initial rating, 84% plantedWinter Wheat: 52% G/E—best since 2019! 🌟Spring Wheat: 50% G/E—up, but still well below average 📉💵 Dollar OutlookWall Street banks like Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect a weaker dollar ahead, driven by Fed cuts and Trump’s economic playbook. Foreign currencies may get a boost! 📊📉🛢️ Oil Bounces BackCrude rallied 3% to $62.52/barrel 🚀 on OPEC+ decisions and a falling US rig count. Still down YTD, but experts say cuts could tighten supplies.🚢 Export ActionCorn: 62M bu—beat expectations!Soybeans: 10M bu—down from last yearWheat: 20M bu—strong vs. a year ago👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more grain market breakdowns every week!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Weather3:39 "Mr. NICE GUY"8:11 Export Sales9:24 Brazil Corn Harvest10:26 The Funds11:27 Flash Sales📉 Rain Returns, Trade Tensions Rise & Export Sales Slide 🌽🌧️🌎👀 Here's what you need to know this week in the grain markets:🌦️ Weekend Rain Recap & Forecast OutlookRainfall was limited to the southeastern Corn Belt with up to 1.5" in parts of IL, IN, OH, and KY. The rest of the region stayed dry, but buckle up — forecasts show widespread rain this week! CropProphet expects 1.8" average rain across US corn areas. 🌧️ 🇨🇳 Trump vs. China: Trade Tensions Back OnTrump accused China of violating a trade deal and vowed not to be “Mr. NICE GUY” anymore. Visa revocations, chip export controls, and stalled talks sent a chill through markets. 🤝📉📉 US Export Sales FallCorn: Down 23% W/W – 🇯🇵 Japan tops the listSoybeans: Missed expectations – 🇲🇽 Mexico leadsWheat: Weak but improved – 🇻🇪 Venezuela steps in🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest LaggingOnly 1.05% harvested vs. 2.7% LY. But crop size is up sharply:Safrinha corn: 99.8 MMT (+11%)Total corn: 126.9 MMT (+10%)💰 Funds Shift PositionsThe Funds trimmed corn shorts and went long in soybeans:+5K corn 🟢+30K soybeans (largest net long since Feb!) 🫘+7K SRW wheat 🌾🚢 Flash Corn Sale!US exporters sold 210K mt to unknown destinations.145K for '24/25 📅65K for '25/26 🚢📈 Stay informed, subscribe for updates, and drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Spring Wheat Rally3:13 Drought and AI Weather Model7:43 More Tariff News10:04 SRE News, Biofuel12:12 Higher Biofuel Mandates?15:24 Ethanol Production16:48 Flash Sales17:53 Russia Wheat🌾 Spring Wheat Soars + Drought Moves + Biofuel Battles! ⚖️🔥🚀 Markets on the Move:Spring wheat futures surged to multi-week highs overnight! Jul25 hit its best level since April 17 📈 after the USDA rated the crop just 45% good-to-excellent — the worst start since 2021. Funds are still holding a record net short! 👀🌧️ Drought Monitor Drama:Rain boosted MN & WI, but dry pockets worsened in parts of IL, IN, MO & IA. The High Plains saw improvement thanks to rain + cool temps. Here’s where drought is hitting hardest:🌽 Corn – 23%🌱 Soybeans – 17%🌾 Spring Wheat – 29%🐄 Cattle – 23%🧾 Tariff Twist!Trump’s global tariffs are back on... for now. A federal court reinstated them temporarily while legal battles continue ⚖️. Could this be peak tariff fatigue in the markets?⛽ Biofuel Backlash:Trump's administration may approve backlogged refinery waivers — some dating to 2016. Analysts warn this could undercut ethanol & corn prices, setting a dangerous precedent for farmers. Meanwhile, new 2026 biofuel mandates are coming — industry insiders are pushing for 5.25 billion gallons to help grain demand.🍻 Ethanol Update:Production ticked up 1.9% last week to 1.06M bpd. Stocks fell slightly but remain above last year. Margins? Flat. 📊🚢 Corn Flash Sales:The US sold 8M bushels of corn — half to Mexico, half to “unknown.” Export demand showing signs of life!🌍 Russian Wheat Outlook:Sovecon bumped Russia’s export forecast to 40.8mmt 📦 and raised its crop estimate to 81mmt 🌾—still below recent highs, offering some global price support.👉 Don't forget to LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and drop your thoughts in the comments!📲 Stay informed — markets move fast!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Tariffs Ruled Illegal2:55 Row Crop Selloff4:19 US Weather8:28 US/China Chip Tensions9:42 India Won't Import Wheat10:55 Screwworm and Cattle Impact🇺🇸📉 Trump’s Tariffs BLOCKED by U.S. Court! Markets React! 📈🌾A U.S. trade court just delivered a major blow to President Trump’s global tariff strategy. 🧑‍⚖️📜 On Wednesday, the Court of International Trade ruled that Trump illegally used emergency powers to impose tariffs — a setback for his economic agenda. The Trump team has already filed an appeal. Meanwhile, the markets are on the move! 📊📈 Market Reaction & Futures Update👉 S&P 500 futures surged 1.5% early this morning!👉 Corn and soybean futures? Mixed bag! 🌽📉➡️ Corn dropped 9¢ to $4.51➡️ Soybeans fell 14¢ to $10.49🌾 Wheat futures ticked higher as crop ratings disappointed.☔ Weather Wildcards in the Corn BeltRainfall outlooks from the Euro 🌍 and GFS 🌎 models remain all over the map! The West may turn drier per GFS, while the East could see reduced rain per the Euro. Iowa, Nebraska, and SD are key watch areas! 🌧️❓💻 New US-China Chip TensionsThe Commerce Dept. is now blocking high-tech chip design tools from reaching China 🇨🇳💥— a direct hit on AI ambitions. Could this unravel the current tariff truce?🌾 India’s Wheat SurpriseIndia says “no thanks” to wheat imports this year with a record harvest of 115.4 MMT! 🌾✅ Strong prices, great weather, and improved seeds have made all the difference.🐮 Feeder Cattle Imports May ResumeUSDA plans to restart Mexican cattle imports 🐂 by year’s end—halted due to screwworm threats. A false scare in Missouri briefly rattled markets earlier this week! 🚨👇 Don’t forget to **like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!**👇#Tariffs #GrainMarkets #WeatherOutlook #ChipWar #Wheat #Cattle #TrumpTariffs #FarmNews #MarketUpdate 🌽📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn/Soybean Conditions and Progress1:37 Ohio Problems4:06 Wheat Progress and Conditions5:27 Wheat Price Action8:18 China Wheat Update9:26 Corn Shipments are Strong10:53 Trump CFTC Pick🌽 Crop Ratings Drop! Corn & Wheat Disappoint 📉Welcome back! This week's USDA report brought mixed news for US crops — with corn and spring wheat ratings falling below expectations. Here’s what’s happening in the markets, in the fields, and around the globe 🌎👇🌾 Crop Conditions Update📉 Corn rated 68% G/E—below last year & forecast🌽 Top-rated states: IN, IA, KY, MO, NE, NC, PA🌱 Corn planting: 87% done🫘 Soybeans: 76% planted (ahead of average!)🌾 Winter wheat: 50% G/E—highest for week since 2020🌱 Spring wheat: 45% G/E—lowest since 2021📊 Grain Market Moves💥 Chicago wheat falls 14¢ to $5.29—rainfall relief hits prices🌧️ Moisture in US Plains, EU & Black Sea = pressure🌽 Corn flat, 🫘 soybeans inch higher🌎 Global Weather Watch🌧️ Heavy rains forecast for Southern China🌾 Wheat belt moisture improving, but flooding risk looms🚢 Export Snapshot🇺🇸 Corn exports: 1.4 mmt—strong YoY, but down WoW🫘 Soybeans: near low end of expectations🌾 Wheat: exceeds forecast with big YoY gain⚖️ Crypto & CFTC in the Spotlight🚨 Trump’s CFTC nominee under fire for crypto ties💼 Brian Quintez pledges to cut crypto links if confirmed📜 Congress weighs expanding CFTC’s crypto authority📺 Don’t miss the full breakdown!👍 Like, subscribe & drop a comment below with your market take!📡 Stay tuned for charts, maps & data visuals throughout the video!#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #USDA #GrainMarkets #CryptoNews #FarmReport #AgNews #CommodityMarkets #WeatherWatch

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump Tariff Delay3:05 US Weather6:21 The Funds9:36 Cattle on Feed12:48 Deere and Drone Tech📢 Trump Extends EU Tariff Deadline + Market Reactions, Weather, & Ag Tech News! 🌽📈🚨 Tariff Talk Heats UpPresident Trump has extended the EU tariff deadline to July 9 following a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The move delays a proposed 50% tariff on EU goods 😳 — part of Trump’s reciprocal tariff strategy. Markets are breathing a sigh of relief today after a volatile Friday 📉➡️📈. The S&P 500 is up 1.6%!📱 Meanwhile, Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on foreign-made smartphones, including Apple and Samsung devices. 📲💸🌦️ Weekend Weather UpdateRain favored the Plains & Mid-South, hitting NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, & the Gulf 🌧️. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, though scattered showers are seen in SD, MN, NE, & IA this morning. Divergence between the Euro & GFS models creates some forecast uncertainty this week. 🤔🌀📊 Money Moves in the Corn Market"The Funds" are getting bearish! 🐻 Last week, money managers increased their net short corn position to 95k contracts — the biggest since Oct ‘24. Also:• Soybeans: net sellers of 24k• SRW Wheat: net buyers of 20k🐮 Cattle on Feed Report = Bullish?• On Feed: 11.4M head (⬇️ 2%)• April Placements: Lowest since 2020• Beef in Cold Storage: Lowest for April since 2014This tight supply setup could fuel further gains in cattle prices. 🚀🥩🚁 John Deere Goes Airborne!Big green is making moves! 💚 John Deere just acquired Sentera, a drone and ag tech firm helping farmers spot weeds and monitor crops from the sky. This supports Deere’s automation push in response to labor shortages and adds to their strong 2025 — the stock is up 22% YTD 📈🌾👇 Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more ag market insights! 👇#Tariffs #CornMarket #AgTech #JohnDeere #CattlePrices #GrainMarkets #WeatherWatch #TrumpTariffs #FarmNews 🌽📊🐄💼

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Winning Streak5:22 US Weather / Drought10:01 SRE Rumors11:26 Tax Bill and Bonds14:59 Export Sales19:30 India Wheat🌽 Corn Climbs Again! + Biofuel Buzz & Drought Data 🔥📈 The CBOT corn market kept up the momentum Thursday! July25 corn closed higher for the 4th straight session, settling at $4.63/bu, thanks to technical support. But... deferred months slipped on a strong US dollar and weaker oil. Rain is on the way for the Corn Belt 🌧️—a good sign for crop development! 🌎 The International Grains Council also raised its 25/26 global corn production forecast by 3 MMT to 1.3B tons. 🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor: Mixed BagThe latest drought monitor shows:🌽 Corn in drought: 20%🌱 Soybeans: 17%🌾 Winter Wheat: 23%🌾 Spring Wheat: 38%🐄 Cattle: 29%Big gains in Nebraska & the Dakotas due to massive rainfall, but worsening in Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota. 🛢️ Soybean Oil Swings on Biofuel Rumors!A wild day for soybean oil! 🌀 Rumors of Trump’s EPA approving backlogged Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) spooked the market — until the EPA denied it. Was someone trying to manipulate RIN prices? 🤔🏛️ Trump's Domestic Package Passes HouseThe House passed Trump's multi-trillion dollar bill (215-214)—now it heads to the Senate 🚨. Key items for agriculture and energy:🌱 45Z extended through 2031🌎 Foreign feedstocks banned🛬 Still no language on Sustainable Aviation Fuel🌐 Export Sales Snapshot🌽 Corn: 1.2mmt — Japan 🇯🇵 leads🌱 Soybeans: 308kmt — Mexico 🇲🇽 leads🌾 Wheat: -13kmt — Colombia 🇨🇴 leads🇮🇳 India Eyes Record Wheat CropIndia could harvest a record 117mmt wheat crop! Favorable weather + strong seeds = BIG yields 🌾. Flour millers are pressuring for export bans to be lifted as stockpiles grow 📦.#CornMarket #GrainPrices #DroughtUpdate #BiofuelNews #USDA #TrumpBill #AgPolicy #SoybeanOil #ExportSales #IndiaWheat #FarmEconomy #5MinuteFriday 🌽📊💼

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Bond Selloff1:46 Tax Bill Concerns5:44 Corn and Bonds9:14 Extended Commodity Trading Hours?11:20 Ethanol Production12:21 Argentina Update13:56 Bitcoin ATH🔹 📉 Bond Market Sell-Off IntensifiesYields are surging as debt concerns mount. The 30-year hits 5.089%—a rare level not seen since 2023—and the 10-year busts through 4.5%. Weak auctions and global pressure (hello, Japan 🇯🇵) are shaking confidence in US debt. What’s it mean for YOU? 📊🔹 🇺🇸 Trump’s Policy Package Stirs the HouseA multitrillion-dollar bill with tax cuts, spending hikes, and big changes to energy, immigration, and Medicaid. But it’s facing resistance from both sides of the GOP aisle.🔹 🌾 Corn Futures Catch a BidCorn prices move higher on short-covering, slow farmer sales, and a softer dollar. Wheat strength provides a boost. 🔹 🕒 24/7 Futures Trading? NGFA Says No!The CFTC is considering round-the-clock trading for grains and livestock. The NGFA pushes back hard. Will extended hours help or hurt the market? ⏰🔹 🚜 US Ethanol Output RisesProduction climbs 4.3% on the week—but margins are softening. Stocks tick lower. 🔹 🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Weather UpdateRainfall finally lets up after major delays in the soybean harvest. Dry weather returns, helping ease pressure on the crop forecast. 🌤️🔹 🪙 Bitcoin Hits Record HighYes, again. BTC tops $109K on hopes for stablecoin legislation and a Trump-fueled regulatory shift. Options traders are betting BIG.💬 Got thoughts on 24/7 grain trading? Drop a comment and join the conversation!👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe to stay ahead of the markets each week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Payment Update4:30 Wheat Rally6:13 Russia Wheat Weather7:24 Corn Belt Rains9:53 China Soybean Imports11:35 China Buys More Gold🌾 USDA Sends Billions to Farmers + Wheat Rally & China Trade Moves! 💵🌍🚨 Big USDA Payments Rolling Out!As of Monday, $7.6B in ECAP payments have been distributed to help farmers facing rising costs and lower crop prices. Corn growers have received $3.1B, soybeans $2B, and wheat $1B. Iowa leads the pack with nearly $700M! Over 500,000 farmers have already applied. 📝💰 Sign-up is open through August 15 — don’t miss it! 👇🌾 Wheat Prices SurgeChicago wheat futures jumped 📈 to their highest level since April, fueled by a weaker US dollar, falling US crop ratings, and weather concerns in China where temps could soar past 108°F! 🥵💨🇷🇺 Russia Declares Grain EmergencyThe Rostov region — Russia’s top grain producer — is under a state of emergency due to frost and expected drought. It's the third major region this season facing serious challenges. Crop damage may remain limited… but risk looms. ⚠️🌡️🌧️ Corn Belt Soaked AgainOver 1.5" of rain fell across big chunks of the Midwest over the past 72 hours. More rain is expected in Missouri, Illinois, and across the Belt in the coming 2 weeks. 🌽☔️🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports PlungeChina’s soybean imports from Brazil dropped 22% in April 📉 due to harvest and customs delays. US shipments also fell 44%. April imports were the lowest since 2015. Tariff tensions may be playing a role. 🛑🫘🥇 Chinese Gold Demand SurgesGold imports to China soared 73% last month despite record prices nearing $3,500/oz. The PBOC loosened restrictions to meet rising demand, driven by trade tension fears and investor hedging. 💹🔐💬 Drop a comment with your market thoughts & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for the latest ag and market updates!#FarmingNews #Wheat #Soybeans #Corn #Gold #US

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Weather Update2:25 US Crop Progress6:51 Argentina Flooding10:09 China is Chirping11:21 Corn Shipments are Strong13:07 Meal Flash Sale🌽 Storms, Planting Progress & Global Trade Tensions! 🌧️📈🌎Radar is lit up across the 🌽 Corn Belt this morning! A large storm system is bringing rain to MN, IA, WI, IL, and IN, with more moisture expected over the next 16 days 🌧️🌀. Recent rainfall has favored parts of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and the mid-South. 🌱 Planting Progress 🚜Corn and soybean planting is flying ahead of the five-year average! Corn is 78% planted, while soybeans are 66% complete—the second-fastest pace in 10 years! 🏃‍♂️💨 Some states are nearly done, while others still lag behind. 🌾 Wheat Ratings & Spring Progress 🌼Winter wheat ratings slipped to 52% good-excellent—lower than expected but still better than last year. Spring wheat planting is surging ahead at 82%, beating both last week's and average pace! 📈🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Concerns 🌧️Heavy rains are threatening soybean yields in Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soybean meal and oil. With harvest delays and 1.8 million acres still in the field, losses could mount fast. So far, markets haven’t blinked 👀.🇨🇳 China-US Trade Clash 💥Tensions rise again: China accuses the US of derailing trade talks over AI chip sanctions tied to Huawei. The warning could undercut recent progress made in Switzerland. 🤖🚫🇺🇸🚢 Weekly Exports Update 📦📦 Corn: 1.7mmt shipped, up big from last week📦 Soybeans: Missed expectations📦 Wheat: Strong performance, +85% YoY!Plus, a flash sale of 145,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines makes headlines. 📢🔔 Subscribe for daily insights & drop a comment with your planting progress or market thoughts! Let’s talk grain! 🌽📊🗣️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Downgrade2:53 Corn Price Action4:42 US Weather7:48 Argentina Flooding9:14 The Funds11:04 India and Ethanol📉 US Credit Downgrade Sparks Market Jitters 🇺🇸💥Moody's has officially downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, stripping the nation of its final triple-A from any major agency. The move was driven by rising deficits, ballooning interest costs, and a lack of fiscal discipline. While not expected to spark immediate chaos, the downgrade could slowly increase borrowing costs.💬 Meanwhile, the "Sell America" trade is back:📉 Stocks ⬇️📉 Bonds ⬇️ (rates ⬆️)💵 Dollar ⬇️🌎 Only 11 countries now hold a triple-A rating from Moody’s.🌽 Corn Market MovesCorn futures slid 5¢ on Friday, with good weather and fast planting keeping prices under pressure. Over 60% of US corn is in the ground, ahead of average. But exports are strong—second best in 10 years!🌦️ Radar WatchStorms are lighting up the Corn Belt! 🌩️ Rainfall expected in:• ND, SD, IA, MO• Heaviest rain: southern IA, northern MO, southern IL & IN, western KY🌧️ Moisture could boost crop development in dry spots.🇦🇷 Argentina FloodingToo much of a good thing? Parts of Buenos Aires saw 6–10 inches of rain! 🌊 Soy harvest delays continue, and sales have dropped to decade-lows.• Soybean meal ⬇️• Soybean oil ⬆️ (after recent plunge)📊 Fund Positioning• Corn: Biggest short since Oct '24• SRW Wheat: Most short since Nov '23• Soybeans: Funds were light buyers last week🌍 US-India Ethanol TalksThe US wants India to open its market to fuel-grade ethanol. But India’s pushing domestic production and is cautious of foreign suppliers flooding the market. 🇮🇳⛽👉 Subscribe for daily ag + macro updates! Drop your thoughts in the comments 💬#GrainMarkets #USCreditDowngrade #Corn #Soybeans #Moody's #Argentina #Ethanol #Commodities #AgNews 🌾💰📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Soybean Oil Crash2:16 US Weather / Drought6:39 Meat Demand and Ozempic9:44 NOPA Crush Report12:00 Export Sales15:10 Kansas Wheat Tour16:53 CONAB Estimates19:25 SpaceX and Farming🌱 Big Moves in Biofuels, Drought, and Meat Demand! 🚜🔥🛢️ EPA Biofuel Blend DramaThe EPA just sent a new rule to the White House. 👀 Rumors suggest 2026 diesel blending targets may come in way below industry hopes — and soybean oil futures reacted hard, falling limit down. 📉🌾 USDA Drought Monitor UpdateDrought is creeping across key crop states. 😬Corn: 22% 🌽 | Soybeans: 17% 🌱 | Winter Wheat: 23% 🌾🍗 Ozempic Boosting Meat Demand?Weight-loss meds like Ozempic 💉 are driving higher chicken and beef consumption, says JBS — folks on GLP-1s want more protein! 🐔🥩🧼 NOPA Crush ReportApril soybean crush dipped from March but still hit a record for the month 📊. Soybean oil stocks rose slightly but remain the lowest for April since 2015.🌍 Strong US Corn ExportsCorn export sales beat expectations! 🌽💪Soybeans and wheat? A bit more sluggish 🐢📉🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour SurpriseHighest projected yield since 2021! Timely spring rains helped wheat scouts forecast 53 bpa vs the usual 44.3. USDA's still a bit more conservative — but things are looking up! ☁️➡️🌧️🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook RaisedConab raised Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts 🌽🇧🇷 Favorable rains, big second corn crop, and rising ethanol demand are all supporting the boom. 📈🚀 Starlink x CNH = Farming FuturePrecision ag just got a boost! CNH teams up with SpaceX to bring Starlink satellite internet to the most remote fields. 🌐🛰️Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated with real ag news that matters 👇#Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #Biofuels #Starlink #Ozempic #Farmers #AgNews #Commodities 🌽📈🛰️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Soybean Rally1:18 EPA and Bean Oil Selloff3:36 Kansas Wheat Tour6:28 Russia Wheat Update8:14 Tyson CEO and Cattle11:22 Ethanol Production🌱 Soybeans Rally Again!Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! 📈 The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by:🔹 A 90-day tariff truce between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳🔹 A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit🔹 Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with ChinaBut... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below 👇⚙️ EPA & Renewable Fuel StandardEPA Chief Lee Zeldin 🏛️ says new RVOs are coming soon!🔸 Final rule expected in months🔸 Public comment period ahead🔸 Push for higher volume levels already underwayStill, soybean oil futures are diving this morning 💥, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices.🌾 Wheat Tour SurprisesKansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾📍 Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg)📍 SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger.❄️ Russian Crop Weather UpdateMinimal damage from May frosts ❄️📉 Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss)But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌵🥩 Cattle Market TensionTyson says herd rebuilding has started. 🐄…but challenges remain:⚠️ Drought⚠️ High prices⚠️ Limited capitalTyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal 📉🚜 Ethanol Production Slips🔻 Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW)📈 Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically)Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt 💵 — see full ethanol charts below!📊 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! 🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Weather3:42 Biofuel and Tax Bill5:41 Iowa Eminent Domain8:54 US Loses Soy Market Share10:54 China Soybean Import Forecast12:13 Inflation Update🌽☔ Widespread Rain in the Corn Belt + Biofuels Shakeup, China Trade Jitters & Inflation Update! 📉🛢️🌍🌧️ Weather Watch:A major rain event is unfolding across the US Corn Belt! Western ND/SD are already getting soaked, with more rain arriving in the eastern Corn Belt by Friday. The next 5-16 days could bring showers to even the driest spots! 💧🌽 🛢️ 45Z Tax Credit Overhaul:Big news from Washington! Proposed changes to the 45Z credit could boost rural jobs and spark biofuel innovation 🚜⚡—but also shake up feedstock sourcing 🌎. Chinese used cooking oil may be out, and soybean oil markets are reacting! 📈🛣️ Iowa Battles Carbon Pipelines:The Iowa Senate passed a bill tightening rules on eminent domain for carbon pipelines 🚫🛢️. It could slow down Summit Carbon’s $8.9B project. The bill now heads to Governor Reynolds’ desk. 🖊️🇨🇳 Brazil Soybean Advantage Continues:Despite US-China tariff cuts, Brazil stays king 👑 in China’s soybean market thanks to no tariffs and a monster crop. US beans still face a 10% tariff, and farmers say the trade truce doesn’t fix long-term problems. 📉 China Soybean Imports Falling:China expects soybean imports to drop 2.8% next season, with domestic production climbing 🐖🌱. Reduced soymeal use in livestock feed is driving the shift. 📉📊 Inflation Hits 4-Year Low!CPI rose just 2.3% YoY in April—the lowest since Feb 2021! 🙌 Markets rallied, and Treasury traders now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025. ✅ Subscribe for updates💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments🔔 Hit the bell to stay ahead of the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Struggles4:43 Soybeans Rally6:08 Wheat Sucks9:08 Planting Progress11:25 Wheat Ratings12:46 Mexican Feeder Cattle Suspension13:54 Stock Market Rally15:50 Shipments16:59 Flash Sale📊 USDA Report Recap + Tariff Talk + Market Reactions 🌽📈🚨 Monday's USDA report brought friendly corn news, a soybean rally, and wheat pressure — but markets didn’t act like it. Here's what happened:🌽 Corn Check-InUSDA cut ending stocks for the current year thanks to higher exports ✅New crop balance sheet came in tighter than expected 📉But corn still traded lower this morning 🤷🫘 Soybean SurgeJuly ‘25 beans jumped nearly 20¢ 🚀Support from US-China tariff reduction & tighter supply estimates 📉Ending stocks now the 2nd lowest since ‘12/’13 🔥🌾 Wheat WoesChicago wheat hit a new contract low ❌USDA boosted both US & global ending stocks 📈Rain across the Plains = improving crop conditions 🌧️🌱 Planting ProgressCorn: 62% planted nationally 🌽Beans: 48% planted 🫘Several states moving fast, others still behind ⏱️🪲 Feeder Cattle SuspensionUSDA halts Mexican feeder cattle imports due to New World screwworm 🚫🐛Cattle futures 🚀 on the newsMexico calls move “unfair” 🇲🇽📉 Export UpdateCorn exports dipped but still solid 📦Soybean and wheat shipments mixed 📬USDA also announced a flash soybean sale to Mexico 🇲🇽💼 Market Rally!S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all jumped 📈US-China slash tariffs for 90 days 🛃Traders now see fewer Fed rate cuts this year 💰💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to subscribe for more ag market updates! 📲#USDA #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #FarmNews #Cattle #AgTrade #MarketUpdate #CropProgress #Commodities #Farming #AgNews

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/China Tariffs Reduced3:55 Trade War Impact?6:16 USDA Preview9:32 US Weather Update11:36 The Funds12:35 China Soybean Imports Slow13:53 Flash Sales📢 Tariff Truce & Trade Shifts: Big News for Ag & Markets! 🌎🌽📈🧾 📉 Tariffs Slashed!The US and China have agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days. 🇺🇸➡️🇨🇳🔹 US drops from 145% ➡️ 30%🔹 China drops from 125% ➡️ 10%Talks included fentanyl policy and potential purchase agreements from China. 🤝🌱 🧪 Trade War Fallout in AgTariffs have disrupted grain flows, fertilizer imports, and ag input costs.Farmers face delays, higher prices, and uncertainty. 🚜💸Brazil benefits as China shifts some demand south. 🇧🇷🌾📊 🔥 Soybeans Near 3-Month HighsMarkets are moving!🔹 Soybeans ⬆️🔹 S&P 500 ⬆️ 2%🔹 US Dollar 🚀📅 🌽 New USDA WASDE Report Today!At 11am CST, get your first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets.Expect bearish corn news with trend yields + March acreage. 🧮🌦️ Corn Belt Weather UpdateDry weekend, but moisture is on the way…🌧️ Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky today🌧️ ND, SD, MN & east Corn Belt later this weekWatch for dry pockets in Nebraska & western Iowa. ☀️💰 Fund Flows & Flash Sales"The Funds" sold 57k corn contracts last week.🟢 288k MT corn sold to Mexico🟢 120k MT soybeans sold to PakistanGet the full breakdown + CFTC & Fund Tracker charts. 📉📊🛢️ China Soy Imports Drop 29%!Only 6.1mmt in April —the lowest in 10 years.Customs delays & longer Brazil transit times are to blame. ⏱️🚢Rebound expected in May/June. 📈👇 Don’t miss this critical update on trade, tariffs, weather & global grain flows. Like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!📌 Stay informed. Stay ready. 💬🌎

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Da Pope1:03 Charts4:58 USDA Preview9:55 US/UK Deal12:21 Trump China Thoughts16:21 Drought/Weather Update20:28 Export Sales21:38 Flash Sales📊 USDA Report Monday + Big Trade News! 🌍🌽📅 Mark your calendar! USDA drops its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Monday at 11am CST. We'll get our first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets, with trend yields and March acreage in focus. 📉 Early expectations suggest bearish new crop corn vs. the current year. Pre-report estimates 👇🇺🇸🇬🇧 US–UK Strike Ag Deal!The UK will eliminate its 19% ethanol tariff, giving a major boost to the US ethanol industry 🚀 ($535M in exports last year). The deal also expands beef trade, but UK food safety rules will still apply. For context: the UK = 🇬🇧 68 million people, with 36 lbs of beef consumption per person vs. 59 lbs in the US. 🍖📉📈 Trump Eyes China Tariff CutsPresident Trump expressed hope for progress in this weekend’s trade talks with China 🇨🇳. A tariff reduction (currently at 145%) could be on the table. Markets responded: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% 💹🌾 Drought Monitor HighlightsMost of the Corn Belt is drought-free, but dryness is growing in parts of MO, IL, IN & the High Plains. Here’s the USDA breakdown:Corn: 20%Soybeans: 15%Winter Wheat: 22%Spring Wheat: 37%Cattle Areas: 30%🚢 Export Sales RecapCorn: 1.7mmt – 🌽 65M bu (+64% WoW) – Japan leadsSoybeans: 377k mt – 🫘 14M bu – Mexico leadsWheat: 70k mt – 🌾 3M bu – Mexico leads🌎 China Turns to ArgentinaChina signed a $900M non-binding grain deal with 🇦🇷 Argentina, aiming to sidestep Trump’s tariffs. Expect rising Argentine corn & soybean shipments to China.📢 Flash Sales!Mexico: 205k mt corn (2024/25 & 2025/26)Unknown Dest.: 115k mt corn (2024/25)Pakistan: 225k mt soybeans (largest since June 2022) 🛳️📬 Subscribe for more updates & leave your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Selloff4:32 Trump Comments, US/UK Deal5:45 Podcast News9:06 Bunge and Andersons10:39 Corteva11:51 Ethaonl Production/Stocks12:44 Fed Rates📉 Corn Futures Slide Amid Trade Tensions & Weather Outlook 🌾Corn prices dipped Wednesday as optimism over US–China trade talks gave way to fresh uncertainty. July25 corn futures settled near $4.49 per bushel, down 6 cents on the day. President Trump's refusal to lower tariffs ahead of upcoming negotiations with Beijing, combined with favorable US planting weather, pressured the market. Planting is already ahead of schedule—corn 40% and soybeans 30% complete.🇨🇳 Tariff Talk Turns TenseTrump made it clear: no tariff rollbacks before talks. With US and Chinese officials set to meet in Switzerland, the president doubled down on his hardline stance. Beijing isn't happy. Meanwhile, a US–UK trade deal could be announced today.🎙️ Podcast Profits SoarThe podcasting industry is booming—$7.3 billion in 2024, more than double previous estimates! YouTube now dominates the space, with ad and subscription revenue leading the way.📉 Grain Traders Feel the HeatBunge saw Q1 profits drop 40%, while Andersons posted disappointing revenue and a 10% stock dive. Ongoing tariff drama and unclear biofuel credits are taking a toll.🌱 Corteva Sees Strong Seed SalesCorteva beat earnings estimates with an $842M Q1 profit thanks to higher seed prices—especially in North America. However, global sales dipped 2% amid currency headwinds.📊 Corteva financial chart below.🛢️ Ethanol Production Slips SlightlyWeekly ethanol output came in at 1.02M barrels/day—down slightly from last week, but still strong year-over-year. Margins are improving, especially in the eastern Corn Belt.🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Cites UncertaintyThe Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 4.3%, resisting Trump’s calls for cuts. Powell cited rising inflation risks and economic fallout from trade tensions.💸 Stagflation fears and rate outlook in the chart section.👇 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates, charts, and expert analysis!#CornMarket #Tariffs #USChinaTrade #Ethanol #Corteva #PodcastBoom #FedUpdate #GrainPrices #FarmEconomy #Commodities

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/China3:16 New Trade Agreements?4:33 China Wheat Problems6:49 Transition Planning8:35 Farmer Sentiment10:29 Ethanol Exports are Strong11:49 SAF News13:17 Problems at ADM🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks Begin This Weekend! 🌍Big moves on the global stage! US officials are heading to Switzerland for high-stakes trade talks with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the goal is de-escalation, not a final deal—but with tariffs as high as 145%, the stakes are massive. 💥📉🌾 Meanwhile... Hot Weather Threatens China's Wheat CropA heatwave is scorching Henan, China's top wheat-producing province, with drought fears rising. Could this spark more wheat imports? 👀🌾 See charts below.🤝 Trump Eyes New Trade DealsWhile China's negotiations stall, India 🇮🇳 and Japan 🇯🇵 may be first in line for new trade agreements. Stay tuned. 📋🖊️🚜 Farmer Sentiment ReboundsDespite tariff headaches, farmers are feeling a bit better about the road ahead, says Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer. But many still worry about input costs and long-term impact. 🌱📊⛽ Biofuel Boom: Ethanol & SAF on the Rise!Ethanol exports surged 41% in March. 🚢SAF production has 15x’d since January! ✈️🌿All thanks to federal & state incentives pushing the clean fuel agenda. 🔋🌎📉 ADM Feels the PressureUncertainty in biofuel policy and weak crushing margins are weighing on profits. ADM expects earnings at the low end of forecasts—see why in the charts. 📉📦💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for more ag market updates! 🌽📈#USChinaTrade #Tariffs #Ethanol #SAF #AgNews #FarmEconomy #WheatCrop #Biofuels #ADM #Farmers #TrumpTradePolicy

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Selloff3:00 Corn and Soybean Planting Pace7:04 Wheat Progress / Conditions8:13 Russian Wheat Pricing9:09 Tyson Slump11:24 Grain Shipments📉 Grain Markets Under Pressure! 🌽🌾💥Corn futures took a dive Monday as fast US planting progress and favorable weather set a bearish tone. Jul25 corn dropped nearly 15¢ to $4.54. Traders are eyeing next week’s USDA numbers and watching Brazil’s second crop flourish. 🇺🇸🌤️🇧🇷🚜 US Planting Progress 🌱Corn planting is 40% complete—slightly behind trade guesses but still ahead of average. Soybeans are at 30%, also ahead of normal pace. Drier weather this week should accelerate progress across the Corn Belt. 🌽🌿🌾 Wheat Ratings & Progress 📈Winter wheat condition improved to 51% good-excellent, beating expectations. Spring wheat planting also moved forward at 44% complete. Russia's new crop wheat offers are pressuring global markets as frost fears fade. 🇷🇺💧🥩 Tyson Foods Tumbles 📉🐄Tyson shares sank despite a strong Q2 report, as beef sector losses mount. The US cowherd is at its smallest since 1961, driving cattle costs sky-high. Ranchers may finally be turning the corner on herd rebuilding. 💸📉🚢 Export Update 🚢US corn inspections dipped to 1.6mmt but remain solid YoY. Soybean and wheat inspections missed expectations, with both down sharply from last week. 📊🌍👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Planting Window2:49 "Perfect" Brazil Weather4:51 Tariff Exemptions8:26 USDA Budget Cuts9:44 The Funds10:45 Black Sea Drone Attack📉🌾 Grain Market Update | Rainfall, Brazil Crop Bump, China Tariff Moves & More! 🇨🇳🇧🇷🌦️ Weekend Weather RecapRain was spotty across the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South! Some parts of KY & OH got up to 2.7", but most areas saw less. The western Corn Belt stayed mostly dry. Planting weather looks favorable this week with minimal rain expected! 🌽🇧🇷 Brazil Crop SurpriseStoneX bumped up its Brazil soybean estimate to 168.4 MMT and raised second corn crop projections to 104.3 MMT thanks to solid yields in Mato Grosso. One analyst even called the crop “nearly perfect”! 🚜☀️🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade WatchChina just exempted $40B in US goods from tariffs—pharma, chemicals & more. The US has also lifted tariffs on $102B of Chinese goods. Rumors are swirling that talks may resume soon. Trump hinted that a deal could come this week. 📈🗣️💰 Trump Budget Targets AgTrump’s proposed budget slashes over $4.5B from USDA funding. Cuts hit CRP, rural development, and renewable energy projects—but there's $100M added for food safety and rural housing aid. 🏡❌🌱📊 Fund MovesCFTC says "The Funds" sold off 46k corn contracts last week. Net short positions in SRW wheat are now the largest since Nov 2023! Soybeans saw a slight net buying trend. 📉💼🔥 Black Sea TensionsUkrainian drones hit Russia’s biggest grain terminal at Novorossiysk. Damage was done, but operations resumed quickly. VP Vance says peace talks have been initiated, but Russia’s not ready for a truce yet. ⚠️🛩️🌾👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Stay informed — it matters more than ever! 💬📲

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Assessing Talks2:30 Hassett Comments3:00 Soybean Stuff4:59 Farm Machinery Slump7:52 Drought Monitor10:58 Export Sales13:01 California Gas Ban?🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks? Signals from Beijing & WashingtonBig moves may be brewing in global trade! China says the US wants to talk tariffs, but Beijing is calling for "sincerity." Will this lead to a breakthrough? Let’s break it all down 👇🧨 Tariff Tensions & Trade OptimismChina's Commerce Ministry revealed the US has reached out about potential talks. Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is hopeful, especially after China removed tariffs on some US goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 💊💻🚜 Farm Machinery Sales SlumpTariff uncertainty is crushing machinery demand. CNH Industrial and AGCO posted big Q1 sales drops—23% and 30%. 📉 But oddly… both stocks rallied! AGCO reaffirmed 2025 sales goals while CNH forecasted a steep decline.🌾 Drought Conditions ImprovingUSDA’s latest drought data brings some relief 🌧️:✔️ Drought in the Corn Belt down to 6%✔️ Kansas sees the biggest improvement—drought fell from 64% to 37%!✔️ Drought still lingers in wheat and cattle areas (Spring Wheat: 37%, Cattle: 31%)🌽 Grain Export Sales Snapshot📉 Corn: 1 MMT – down 12% WoW📈 Soybeans: 428,200 MT – up 55% WoW📉 Wheat: 72,000 MT – sharply lowerTop buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (corn), 🇨🇳 China (soybeans), 🇹🇭 Thailand (wheat)🚗 California Gas Car Ban in Trouble?The House just voted to repeal California’s EV waiver ❗ The Senate vote is next. This could derail the 2035 gas car ban and affect other states like NY and WA. California is the #2 US consumer of both gasoline and ethanol. ⛽🌽👉 Don’t miss an update!Subscribe & drop your thoughts in the comments 💬Stay tuned for more grain market and trade breakdowns every week!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 EU Deforestation Law Impact2:56 Corn Belt Rains4:48 GDP Contraction8:46 China PMI9:46 Ethanol Production10:50 Flash Sale🪵 EU’s New Deforestation Law 🌍The 🇪🇺 EU is set to label the 🇺🇸 US as low-risk under its deforestation law, easing concerns for American exporters of beef, grain, and timber. Meanwhile, 🇧🇷 Brazil is expected to be tagged standard-risk, which could hurt its soy and beef exports. A final vote is coming mid-May!🌧️ Radar Watch: Corn Belt Rains 🌽Storms are active across parts of IA, IL, MN, MI & IN this morning, with 2–3" possible in IL. More rain is on the way for the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South. US planting remains ahead of schedule — see maps below! 🚜📉 US GDP Shrinks in Q1 🇺🇸The US economy contracted 0.3% last quarter — the first dip since 2022. A surge in imports (ahead of Trump’s tariffs), weak consumer spending, and a drop in government outlays all played a role. Net exports shaved off nearly 5% from GDP, the worst since 1947! 😳🏭 China’s PMI Falls Below 50 🐉China’s manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory with a 49.0 PMI reading. Ongoing US-China tensions continue to weigh on trade and exports. Beijing may soon unveil new stimulus efforts. 📉🛢️ Ethanol Update: Margins Near Breakeven 🍶US ethanol output rose to 1.04M bpd last week. Stocks dipped slightly but remain elevated. Margins are tight, with the Eastern Corn Belt reporting the best profitability. ⚗️🚢 Corn Flash Sale + Export Strength 🌎US exporters booked 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 24/25. Accumulated sales are up 26% YoY! With Brazil on hold until July, US corn is HOT on the world stage. 🔥Stay informed and make better marketing decisions with the data that matters. 💼📈👉 Subscribe for more ag updates💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments — what do YOU think about the new EU rules?👍 Like, share & follow for the latest!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Tuesday Selloff3:34 China to Reduce Grain/Meal Use6:04 Transition Planning7:38 China Comments8:48 Russia Wheat Update10:04 Amazon Tariff Charges?11:33 Flash Sales🌽📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide Sharply!Corn and soybean futures took a hit Tuesday as planting progress races ahead! The Jul25 corn contract fell 13¢ to around $4.70, while soybeans dropped nearly 10¢ to $10.53. South American weather is looking great, and there’s no big bearish headline—just a wave of selling pressure as weather premiums fade.🌾🌦 Wheat Drifts Lower TooSRW wheat followed suit, down 6¢ to $5.26. Timely US Plains rain and a slight bump in Russian exports kept prices under pressure.🐖🥣 China’s New Feed PlanChina plans to cut grain use in livestock feed to 60% and soymeal to just 10% by 2030. The shift toward alternative proteins like insects and food waste is a major step in Beijing’s strategy to reduce reliance on US soybeans. 📉🛑🇨🇳 China Pushes Back on TariffsAt a BRICS meeting, China warned against giving in to US tariff pressure. Officials demand a rollback of all tariffs before trade talks can start. Meanwhile, the US hints at tougher measures.🚢🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Export Forecast RaisedSovecon bumped up its Russian wheat export forecast to 40.7mmt despite ongoing profitability issues. Margins remain tight, and a breakout in shipments still looks unlikely.🛒🇺🇸 Amazon Won’t Show Tariff CostsAfter blowback from the White House and President Trump, Amazon has scrapped plans to display tariff charges on its discount platform, Amazon Haul. The drama continues…📦🌍 Flash Sales to Spain & Unknown Buyers!USDA reported new flash sales:🔹 120,000mt of corn to Spain🔹 110,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations👇 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights every week!#GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #ChinaTrade #USDA #Tariffs #AgricultureNews

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Wheat Futures Fall3:50 Summer E157:36 Corn and Soybean Planting9:15 US Wheat Update10:03 China Comments11:32 Grain Shipments are Strong12:19 Screwworm Update🌾 Wheat Futures Tumble Amid Plains Rainfall! 🌧️Big moves in the grain markets to kick off the week! Here's what's happening: 👇🌾 Wheat UpdateSRW wheat fell 14¢ to $5.31/bu. 📉HRW wheat dropped 11¢ to $5.40/bu. 📉Heavy rainfall in Texas & Oklahoma (6–8 inches possible!) forecasted 🌦️🌽 Corn & Soybeans SteadyFutures mostly flat as traders watch for export disruptions from Trump's China trade war ⚖️⛽ Nationwide E15 Sales ApprovedEmergency EPA waiver greenlights E15 sales this summer. 🚗💨Analysts expect little impact on corn demand. 📊🌱 Planting ProgressCorn planting: 24% complete vs. 22% avg. 🌽Soybean planting: 18% complete vs. 12% avg. 🌱🌾 Winter Wheat Ratings Improve49% good-excellent, beating analyst expectations ✅Spring wheat planting also ahead of average. 📈🌍 China Shifts Away from US GrainRecord soybean imports from South America expected 📦Some disruptions after Brazil harvest delays ⏳🚢 Export InspectionsCorn inspections strong at 1.6mmt 🚢Wheat and soybean shipments mixed. 📦🐄 US-Mexico Screwworm AgreementBorder closure on feeder cattle imports avoided ✅Threat averted that could've tightened cattle supplies further. 🚜👇 Don't forget to LIKE, COMMENT, and SUBSCRIBE for your daily grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Mixed Messaging3:13 Japan and South Korea Talks4:06 US Weather and Rains8:06 Fund Positions9:21 Panama Canal10:44 Another Screwworm/Cattle Headline11:54 Flash Sale🇺🇸🌎 Trade Talks...or No Talks? 🇨🇳❓Big moves (and some big confusion) on the global trade front! President Trump says China wants a deal, but Beijing denies any talks 🤔. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't sure if Trump spoke to Xi Jinping directly, though USDA's Brooke Rollins says daily tariff conversations are happening 📞. Meanwhile, soybean futures are feeling the pressure early this morning 🌱📉.🗺️ Weekend Trade Updates:✅ Productive talks with Japan and South Korea✅ New focus on currency policy with South Korea✅ More rain on the way for the US Corn Belt ☔—see maps below!📊 Fund Tracker Highlights:Funds net buyers of soybeans for a 4th week! 🚀Largest net-long soybean position since February!Funds sold corn but bought some SRW wheat 🌽🌾.🚢 Trump's Shipping Push:Demanding free US passage through the Panama and Suez Canals! 🌍Reviving US shipbuilding as China tensions rise 🔥.🐂 Border Watch:USDA threatens new cattle import restrictions from Mexico. 🐄🚫Screwworm outbreak grows—action deadline looms April 30!🌽 Flash Corn Sale:235,000mt sold to Mexico! 🇲🇽US remains the top corn supplier with Brazil out of the game (for now). ⚡👇 Stay tuned, like & subscribe for the latest on trade, markets, and agriculture!Let's talk about it in the comments! 💬👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China’s Trade Shift?Beijing may exempt some US goods from tariffs! A task force led by China’s Ministry of Commerce is compiling a list—rumored to include 131 product categories—but no official word yet. This could signal growing concern about trade war impacts. Bloomberg & Reuters both confirm the buzz 📊🌱 Soybean Prices SurgeSoybean futures climbed for the 4th day in a row, hitting $10.62/bu on July25! Traders are hopeful about rising global demand and easing US-China tensions. Japan is reportedly eyeing more US soybeans, and soybean oil gains added support 🚀🐖 China Cancels Pork OrdersChina just made its largest US pork cancellation since 2020—pulling 20,000mt! Tariffs on pork are now a staggering 172%, and beef faces a 147% rate. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Meat exports are definitely in the crosshairs of the trade fight 🥩🌽 Brazil’s Corn CrunchBrazil’s ethanol output from corn is exploding—set to hit 8.25 billion liters this year and more next! That’s tightening domestic corn supplies and may reduce Brazil’s exports… a potential win for US corn competitiveness 💪📉 Grain Exports SlumpUS corn sales dropped 26% on the week, soybeans fell 50%, and wheat saw net reductions 😬. Buyers were Japan (corn), Mexico (soybeans), and Vietnam (wheat). The export scene’s getting tougher.🔥 Drought UpdateSome relief! 🌧️ Drought eased in Missouri, Iowa, and parts of Illinois and Minnesota. But corn, soybeans, and wheat still face stress across big portions of the US 🌾Corn: 26% in droughtSoybeans: 21%Winter Wheat: 33%Spring Wheat: 49%Cattle areas: 37%📊 Stock Market ReboundsMarkets popped Thursday as Trump’s softer trade tone gave investors hope. But China says talks haven’t started, so stay tuned… 📉 The S&P 500 is still down 3.3% since April 2.👉 Like, comment, and subscribe for more timely grain market updates.Stay informed. Stay ahead. 💡

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans Pop, Corn Slips, Wheat Hits New Lows 🚜📈 Markets on the Move!Soybean futures climbed 📊—with July ‘25 beans hitting their highest level in 2️⃣ months! The boost came after President Trump reassured markets he won’t fire Fed Chair Powell and suggested tariff relief for China 🇨🇳. Technical buying added fuel to the rally 🔥🌽 Corn & Wheat DownCorn dipped as dry weather forecasts may speed up planting in the Corn Belt 🌾. Wheat futures fell, pressured by weak global demand and rain across the U.S. Plains 🌧️. Jul’25 HRW wheat made contract lows overnight ⚠️🇨🇳 China Crop TroubleDrought in China’s wheat & corn belts and soggy conditions up north are hitting yields and delaying soybean planting 🚨. At the same time, tensions remain high in the trade war, with China demanding the U.S. scrap all tariffs 🚫📦⛽ Ethanol UpdateU.S. ethanol stocks sank to their lowest since January 🛢️. Weekly output rose, but margins remain tight 🤏. Could tightening supplies lift prices?🇦🇷 Argentina Harvest LagsDry weather will speed up soybean harvest in Argentina 🌞—but March floods already cut into yields. Only 23% of the crop has been sold, the lowest in a decade 📉🛢️ Crude Oil DropsWTI fell 2.2% as OPEC+ weighs another output boost 💧. Eight members meet May 5 to decide on June volumes 🗓️👇 See the latest maps & charts below!💬 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let’s talk grain! 🌾📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 21k Subs! Thanks!0:51 Trump to Ease on China?3:02 Markets React5:16 Ethanol Push6:50 Summit Pipeline Setback8:05 Another Spring Wheat Contract?9:33 IMF Forecast11:16 Trade and Logistics Impact🇺🇸💼 Trump Signals Softer Tariffs in China TalksPresident Trump says tariffs on Chinese goods may be reduced but not eliminated. “We’re going to be very nice,” he added. As markets feel the pressure 📉 and rates stay high, trade talks could gain urgency.📊 Treasury Talks & Market ReactionTreasury’s Scott Bessent says current tariffs aren’t sustainable — and that a new trade balance could emerge in 2-3 years. 📈 Stocks rallied on the optimism, with major indexes jumping nearly 3%.⛽ Midwest Pushes for E15 Fuel WaiversSeven Midwest governors 🧑‍🌾 are urging the EPA to approve E10/E15 waivers for the summer driving season. They say it’ll boost fuel supply and bring prices down — especially important amid current shortages.🛑 South Dakota Nixes Carbon PipelineSummit Carbon’s pipeline plan got shut down ❌ as SD regulators voted 2–1 against it. The state’s eminent domain ban made land access nearly impossible. Summit plans a new route after investing $150M.🌾 Spring Wheat Showdown: CME vs MIAXCME launched its own spring wheat contract to compete with MIAX 🌾. Traders worry the market may not support two. CME is slashing fees to win volume, but MIAX holds strong with historic data and momentum.🌍 IMF Lowers Global OutlookThe IMF just cut growth forecasts ✂️ for most major economies. For the U.S., 2025 growth is now seen at 1.8%—with inflation expected to hit 3%. The U.S.-China tariff battle is a key reason behind the slowdown 📉.🚢 SoCal Trade at RiskThe West Coast’s logistics hub may be in trouble 😬. Tariffs are slashing cargo volumes at LA and Long Beach ports. Imports & exports could drop 10% starting next month, though diverted traffic might cushion the blow.👇 Stay tuned for the latest on trade, tariffs, and fuel markets📌 Don’t forget to subscribe, drop a like, and leave your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe!0:45 Dollar, Trump, Powell, Commodities4:06 US / India Talks8:15 US Planting Update11:27 SA Countries Benefit from Trade War13:19 Corn Shipments are Strong📉 Dollar Drops to 3-Year Low | US-India Trade Talks | Crop Progress & Export Strength 💪Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! In today’s update, we cover big moves in currency, trade, and crops. 🌎🚜📊💵 US Dollar SlidesThe greenback hit its lowest level since March 2022 😬 as Trump pressures the Fed to slash interest rates. Tensions rise as the White House reportedly explores removing Jerome Powell. 😮📉🇺🇸🤝🇮🇳 US-India Trade Talks AdvanceVice President JD Vance visits India and pushes for a fall trade deal 📆. India might slash tariffs on U.S. imports and open the door to ethanol discussions for the first time ever. 🔥🌱 Corn & Soybean Planting UpdateCorn is 12% planted, soybeans 8% 🌽🫘, with some states flying ahead of schedule while others lag behind. Full breakdowns inside! 📈🌾 Winter & Spring Wheat SnapshotWinter wheat ratings slip a bit but still beat the average. Spring wheat planting is moving quickly in the north! 🌾⚙️🌍 Brazil & Argentina Step UpSouth American ag exporters are cashing in on the US-China trade war. Chinese buyers pivot to Brazil for beef and beans. 🇧🇷🐄🥜🚢 Export Inspections Beat EstimatesCorn, soybeans, and wheat all showed strong demand last week — with corn topping 1.7mmt! 📦📦📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚢 Trump Scales Back Ship TariffsThe Trump administration has softened its stance on China-built ship fees. Instead of $1.5M per port call, vessels will now face fewer charges — and empty grain/coal ships are exempt! 🌾⛴️🌧️ Rain in the Plains & Corn BeltBig weekend rains hit parts of Oklahoma, Missouri & beyond. More on the way for the Southern Plains. NOAA’s 3-month outlook just dropped — maps inside! 🗺️🌽 Drought Monitor UpdateDry week for much of the Corn Belt. Drought eased in some parts of MN/WI but worsened in NE & KS.🔹 Corn: 30%🔹 Soybeans: 23%🔹 Winter Wheat: 34%🔹 Spring Wheat: 43%🔹 Cattle: 38%📈 Funds Go Long SoybeansCFTC shows big fund buying — soybeans saw the largest net-long since Feb.! Corn and wheat also saw fresh buying. 📊🇯🇵 Japan Trade TalksJapan may boost soybean & rice imports. Corn trade steady. Trump presses on tariffs & ag exports — no deal yet, but “big progress.” 🤝🛢️ Ethanol Exports BoomU.S. ethanol exports already over 1 billion gallons this year. 🚀🇨🇦 Canada = top buyer🇪🇺 EU = huge YOY increase🚚 Corn & Soybean Export Sales SurgeCorn sales are up 99% on the week. 📦 Mexico leads. Soybeans are also strong. Wheat? Not so much.🐄 Cattle on Feed ReportSlightly bearish tone — placements up, but still below the 5-year average. Neutral-to-bearish read overall. 📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Happy Easter0:35 US/Japan Talks2:04 Corn Bounce3:31 Joe is a Cry Baby6:11 US Dollar Declines9:29 Ethanol Production10:25 Montana Renewables11:42 Gold Surges🌐 Trade Discussions with Japan: The Trump administration made significant progress in trade talks with Japan. President Trump described the discussions as making "big progress," with topics extending beyond trade to defense cost-sharing. The 90-day tariff pause continues, but Japan faces a 24% tariff if a deal isn't reached.🌽 Corn Futures Climb: Corn futures saw an increase amid a weaker dollar and weather concerns. The May25 contract gained 3 cents to settle near $4.84 per bushel, supported by recent rain and flooding delays in the Corn Belt. Further rain this weekend is expected to hinder planting progress.💵 US Dollar Falls to Six-Month Low: The U.S. dollar hit a six-month low, with investors seeking safer assets due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowing economy, signaling a wait-and-see approach for the Fed.🌱 Ethanol Stocks Remain High: U.S. ethanol stocks were near historical highs, with a slight weekly decline. However, production margins remain near breakeven levels, with output down by 1% from last week but up 3% from the same time last year.🔋 Montana Renewables Pushes for Higher Biomass Diesel Quotas: Montana Renewables' CEO, Bruce Fleming, is advocating for a substantial increase in biomass-based diesel quotas to support the industry, targeting 7.3 billion gallons, more than double the current quota.💰 Gold Hits New High: Gold surged by 3.2% on Wednesday, reaching over $3,300 per ounce, driven by the weak dollar and investor fears of economic uncertainty. Experts predict gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to trade tensions and a looming global recession.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Farm Payments and Trump3:40 Trump Urges China to Negotiate5:59 Soy Crush Report9:22 COFCO Expands in Brazil10:53 Sorghum Trade War Impact12:46 Corn Flash🌾 Financial Aid for Farmers: The White House is still evaluating the possibility of providing financial aid to farmers who are dealing with challenges like low prices and high inventories, exacerbated by the ongoing trade war. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins highlighted that the goal is to eventually eliminate the need for these payments, but they are currently under consideration, similar to the $28 billion aid provided during Trump's first term.🌍 China's Response to Tariffs: China has imposed a 125% tariff on U.S. goods, and President Trump has retaliated with a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. Trump insists that China should initiate trade negotiations. The ongoing tariff disputes continue to drive significant shifts in global trade.🌱 US Soybean Crush Data: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the U.S. soybean crush in March increased by 9.4% compared to February, but was down 0.9% year-over-year. However, soybean oil stocks declined, marking the first drop in six months.🚢 Cofco Expansion in Brazil: Chinese company Cofco is expanding significantly in Brazil, particularly in operations related to soybeans. The company is building its largest global export terminal at Santos port, highlighting Brazil's growing importance in global agricultural trade.🌾 Declining US Sorghum Exports: Sorghum exports to China have plummeted by 95% in January and February due to the trade war, leading to some adjustments in planting decisions by farmers. Despite this, U.S. sorghum acreage is expected to rise by 4% this year.🌽 Flash Sale of Corn: U.S. exporters made additional corn sales this week, with 110,000 metric tons sold to Portugal and 120,000 metric tons sold to Japan for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year, indicating strong export demand despite the tariff issues.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Digs In2:27 US Crop Progress5:05 Futures Industry Consolidation9:12 Bayer to Ditch Roundup?10:37 Russian Wheat Prices Dip11:36 Grain Shipments12:41 Corn Sale to JapanChina Orders Halt on US Aircraft Purchases ✈️🇨🇳China has ordered its airlines to stop purchasing jets, parts, and equipment from US company Boeing and other US manufacturers, escalating the trade war. This follows China's retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Despite this, hundreds of Boeing planes in China will still require maintenance and repair. 🌍⚙️US Corn Planting Progress Lagging 🌽⏳US corn planting is slightly behind schedule, with 4% of the crop in the ground compared to 5% on average. Planting delays are particularly noticeable in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Soybean planting is also behind, with 2% planted nationally, on track with the five-year average. 🌾📊Winter Wheat Ratings Remain Strong 🌾💪Winter wheat is rated 47% good-excellent, a slight improvement from last week. However, the rating is down from last year’s 55%. The crop is progressing well, with 8% of the crop already headed. Spring wheat planting is ahead of average, with 7% completed. 🌱🌾StoneX Acquires R.J. O’Brien 🏦💼StoneX has acquired R.J. O'Brien & Associates for $900 million, marking a significant move in the futures brokerage industry. The deal will increase StoneX's client base and expand its global reach. The acquisition is expected to close in Q3 2024, and StoneX stock rose 4.7% following the announcement. 📈💸Roundup Weedkiller Facing Legal and Production Challenges ⚖️💥Bayer is considering halting production of Roundup due to ongoing lawsuits claiming the product causes cancer. With 67,000 claims pending, the future of glyphosate, a key herbicide used in US agriculture, remains uncertain. Farmers may face higher costs and reliance on imported or alternative herbicides. 🌾🚜Russian Wheat Exports Up Despite Weather Concerns 🌾❄️Russia's wheat prices declined last week due to improved weather conditions, though analysts warn that conditions remain volatile. Wheat exports increased by 7% week-over-week, with April export forecasts raised to 1.9 million metric tons. 🌍📉US Corn Shipments Surge 🚢🌽US corn shipments surged last week, with 1.8 million metric tons (72 million bushels) inspected for export. This is a 13% increase from the prior week and 34% higher than the same week last year. Soybean shipments declined slightly but were still up 22% compared to last year. 🚢🌾Flash Sale of Corn to Japan 🌽🇯🇵US exporters sold 120,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to Japan for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, adding to the momentum of this year’s corn sales. Accumulated sales are up 25% compared to last year. 📊🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.US Exempts Electronics from Tariffs 🖥️📱The Trump administration announced a temporary exclusion for certain electronics from reciprocal tariffs, including smartphones, computers, and semiconductors. The exemption, which will be revisited later, was welcomed by markets but has raised questions about potential future tariff reassignments. As a result, the stock market saw a sharp rise this morning, while grain markets had a quiet overnight session. 🛑📉US Dollar Index Drops Sharply 💵📉The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, its lowest level since April 2022, marking a 10% decline from its earlier peak. This decrease has coincided with a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, signaling concerns over Trump's protectionist policies and fears of a potential recession. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, however, rallied nearly 6% in response to the weaker dollar. 💸📊China's Commodity Imports Slow 🚫📦Chinese imports, including soybeans, coal, iron ore, and copper, dropped significantly in March, reflecting a slowing economy and escalating trade tensions. The decrease in soybean imports was particularly noteworthy, marking the lowest levels since 2007. Despite this, China's crude oil imports rose 20%, driven by stronger domestic demand. 🌾📉Thailand Considers Increasing US Grain Imports 🌾🇹🇭Thailand is exploring a $2.8 billion increase in U.S. grain imports, including soybean meal, corn, and distillers’ dried grains. The goal is to ease import restrictions and make U.S. grains more competitive, potentially reducing Thailand’s $35 billion trade surplus. The shift could make the U.S. a more significant player in Thailand's grain market, with potential purchases reaching up to 4 million metric tons of corn. 🌽📈Argentina Faces Soybean Yield Losses 🌧️🌱Argentina's soybean harvest is at risk due to excessive rainfall and high humidity. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that the harvest is 4% behind the five-year average, and crop rot and pod splitting concerns are growing. Despite this, drier conditions are expected in mid-April, potentially alleviating some of the damage. 🌧️🌾Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn 🌽📈Large money managers increased their net-long position in corn last week, as revealed by the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data. This move comes amid ongoing trade and weather concerns that are influencing the markets. 📊💹Flash Sale of Soybeans Reported 🌱💰USDA reported a flash sale of 121,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations, with deliveries set for the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 marketing years. This sale supports the notion that export demand for soybeans remains strong despite tariff concerns. 🌾📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Hikes Tariff Rate4:24 Corn is Friendly11:15 Export Sales13:34 Drought Monitor16:43 South America UpdateChina Announces Tariff Hike to 125% 📉📦China has increased tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, up from the previously planned 84%. The new rate will take effect tomorrow, with Beijing asserting that American goods are no longer marketable in China. Chinese officials have dismissed U.S. tariffs as ineffective, calling them a tool of economic bullying. This move adds more strain to an already tense trade relationship. 😡📊USDA Reduces US Corn Ending Stocks 🌽📉The USDA reduced its 2024/2025 U.S. corn ending stocks more than anticipated, down to 1.465 billion bushels, driven by a 100 million bushel increase in the corn export forecast. This revision caused corn futures to rise by 9 cents, reaching their highest point in nearly six weeks. While soybean ending stocks came in as expected, wheat ending stocks were higher than anticipated. 📈🌾US Export Sales Decline Across the Board 📉🌍U.S. export sales saw a decline across corn, soybean, and wheat markets last week. Net corn sales were down 33%, net soybean sales dropped by 58%, and wheat sales also fell sharply by 68%. This trend signals potential challenges for U.S. agriculture as global demand slows. 🌎📉Improvement in Corn Belt Drought Conditions 🌧️Drought conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt improved significantly due to widespread heavy rainfall. Areas such as Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio saw conditions improve, while scattered rainfall in the High Plains also alleviated drought in central Oklahoma and northern Kansas. However, conditions worsened in parts of South Dakota and North Dakota. 🌾💧Brazil's Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts Rise 📈🇧🇷Brazil's corn production forecast was raised to 124.7 million metric tons, up from the March estimate. The revision reflects favorable conditions for Brazil's second corn crop. Additionally, Brazil's soybean production estimate was slightly raised to 167.9 million metric tons. Conversely, Argentina's corn forecast was increased to 48.5 million metric tons, while its soybean forecast was trimmed to 45.5 million metric tons. 🌽📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump's Trade Moves Spark Market Rally 📈🚀President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on some reciprocal tariffs, alongside a temporary reduction in tariff rates, led to a sharp rally in the markets. Grain futures saw notable gains, with soybeans climbing 20 cents, corn gaining 5 cents, and wheat rising nearly 8 cents per bushel. The stock market followed suit, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%, marking its largest single-day gain since 2008. WTI crude also saw a 4.7% jump, settling at $62.35 per barrel. The Nasdaq rose 12%, recording its best day in 24 years. 📊💥Farmer Financial Aid Still Under Consideration 🌱💰The Trump administration is considering financial aid options for farmers impacted by the ongoing trade war. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized that while the goal is to eliminate the need for aid, tariffs are intended to realign the economy for long-term prosperity. The government had previously provided $28 billion in aid to farmers during the trade war with China. With the heightened risk of further escalation, U.S. farm operations are under pressure, with a notable rise in bankruptcies. 🌾📉China's Soybean Imports Despite Tariffs 🇨🇳🌾Despite the tariff war, China is expected to import a significant volume of U.S. soybeans. Around 3 million metric tons of soybeans are scheduled for shipment to China by the end of May. However, a portion of these shipments will face increased tariffs—up to 44% for some cargoes. This could lead to concerns about potential cancellations, particularly as cheaper soybeans from Brazil become available. 🌾💰Executive Order to Boost U.S. Shipbuilding ⚓President Trump signed an executive order aimed at revitalizing the U.S. shipbuilding industry. The initiative, which includes allocating funding, aims to reduce China’s influence on global shipping. However, the plan to impose a fee of $1 million on Chinese ships docking at U.S. ports has faced strong opposition from the global shipping industry. The American Farm Bureau Federation has warned that this could raise U.S. soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢🌍USDA’s Monthly Crop Reports Out Today 📊🌽The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11 a.m. CST. Analysts expect a reduction in the projected corn ending stocks due to higher export projections, while soybean and wheat ending stocks are likely to remain unchanged. The official 2025/2026 balance sheets will be released in May. 🌾📅U.S. Ethanol Stocks Reach Record Highs ⛽📈U.S. ethanol stocks rose to 27.03 million barrels last week, marking a 1.6% increase from the previous week and a 3.2% rise from last year. However, weekly ethanol output fell 4%, with margins currently hovering near breakeven levels. 📉🚜Flash Sale of U.S. Soybeans 🌱📦USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite ongoing trade tensions, U.S. soybean sales have increased 14% compared to the same period last year. 🌾✈️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 104% Tariff Takes Effect2:55 Stocks and Crude Fall5:17 Corn Futures Rise8:07 Biofuel News9:08 AGCO10:05 Russia Wheat Damage11:07 Corn FlashTrump Administration's 104% Tariff on Chinese Goods Takes Effect The Trump administration’s 104% tariff on Chinese goods officially went into effect early this morning, escalating trade tensions. China has rejected the move as "blackmail," making a near-term resolution unlikely. Meanwhile, the U.S. also implemented reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries. Equities and Oil Prices See Sharp Declines The U.S. stock market experienced a major drop on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all retreating sharply. The S&P 500 entered "bear market" territory, having fallen more than 19% from its all-time highs. WTI crude oil also fell nearly 2%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.Corn Futures Rise on Weather Concerns U.S. corn futures saw a 4-cent increase on Tuesday, reaching $4.69 per bushel. The rally was driven by expectations surrounding Thursday’s USDA report and concerns about planting delays due to historic rainfall in the Midwest and southern U.S. Analysts expect U.S. corn ending stocks to decline by 2% from March estimates. The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE reports are due Thursday at 11 a.m. CST. US Oil & Biofuel Groups Push for Higher Biomass Diesel Mandates U.S. oil and biofuel groups are advocating for an increase in biomass diesel mandates, proposing a 5.25 billion gallon mandate for 2026. While the suggestion falls short of previous proposals for 5.5-5.75 billion gallons, it highlights the sector’s desire for a more robust advanced biofuel market. AGCO Suspends Some Agricultural Equipment Shipments AGCO, known for brands like Massey Ferguson and Hesston, has announced it will suspend certain agricultural equipment shipments into the U.S. due to the impact of tariffs. Although the company will continue importing parts, this move reflects the growing concern over the toll that tariffs are taking on agricultural machinery sales. Russia’s Wheat Crop Faces Extreme Weather Threats Russia’s wheat crop is under threat from extreme weather, including a hailstorm in Stavropol, a major wheat-producing region, and recent snowstorms with sub-zero temperatures. Despite these challenges, the Russian agriculture ministry claims that crop losses are under 3%, and the overall situation remains stable. However, authorities have warned that they may implement export restrictions if crop production falls short of expectations. Flash Sale of U.S. Corn U.S. exporters sold 240,000mt (9 million bushels) of corn to Spain for the 2024/2025 marketing year, according to USDA. This sale highlights the competitiveness of U.S. corn in the global market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US/China2:49 EU Proposes "Zero for Zero"5:33 Fake News7:08 Corn is Strong9:27 Crop Progress10:37 Strong Corn/Soybean ShipmentsPresident Trump Escalates Trade Tensions with New Tariffs 📈President Trump ramped up the trade war by threatening a 50% tariff on China, which would increase the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to a staggering 104%. This announcement came after China imposed retaliatory tariffs, including a 34% tariff on U.S. imports. Despite these growing tensions, the market selloff eased after news that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, and China signaled readiness for further stimulus to boost consumption. While the tariffs remain controversial, some optimism remains in the markets, particularly regarding potential trade talks with Japan and other countries. 🤝EU Proposes Zero-for-Zero Tariff Deal with the U.S. 🚗In a bid to avoid a full-blown trade war, the EU proposed a zero-for-zero tariff deal with the U.S. focusing on cars and industrial products. However, the EU also warned of 25% tariffs on U.S. goods if a deal isn't reached by April 15. The EU's proposed agreement could have a significant impact on trade relations, especially with the U.S. demanding commitments from Europe to purchase $350 billion in American energy products. This raises the question—could Trump push for similar deals for U.S. grain exports? 🌾False CNBC Report Adds Confusion to Market Chaos 📉CNBC’s unconfirmed report about a potential 90-day tariff pause triggered confusion and a massive selloff in markets, with the Dow experiencing record intraday volatility. Although the White House denied the claims, the confusion contributed to an already tense market environment. 📉US Corn Futures Hold Steady Despite Tariff Concerns 🌽U.S. corn futures rallied on Monday, closing above near-term resistance. The May25 contract gained 4+ cents, reaching its highest level in over two weeks. Corn futures have largely remained unaffected by the escalating tariff headlines, with shipments to Mexico and Japan continuing without disruption. In the coming week, U.S. trade talks with Japan will take priority, potentially boosting corn exports. 📈USDA’s Crop Progress Report Shows Early Planting Activity 🌱USDA’s first national Crop Progress report for the year shows U.S. corn planting at 2% complete, slightly behind the 3% pace from last year. Spring wheat planting is also on track, with 3% of the crop in the ground. The U.S. winter wheat crop is rated 48% good to excellent, slightly below the five-year average. 🌾Solid Corn and Soybean Shipments 📦USDA reported solid corn and soybean shipments last week, with corn exports reaching 62 million bushels and soybean shipments up 64% from the same week last year. Wheat exports, however, were down significantly, with a 33% decrease from the previous week. 📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Soybean Futures Drop After China's Retaliatory Tariffs 📉Soybean futures fell sharply on Friday after China announced retaliatory tariffs, with the May25 contract dropping nearly 35 cents to $9.77 per bushel. The 34% tariff on U.S. goods, announced in response to President Trump’s 10% tariff on imports, added further pressure on the market. This was the lowest soybean price for a front-month contract since mid-December. 🌱💸Oil Prices Hit Four-Year Low Amid Tariff Fears and OPEC+ Production Boost 🛢️Oil prices tumbled to a four-year low last week due to the combination of new tariffs and OPEC+ decisions to increase production. WTI crude dropped 14% between Thursday and Friday, settling near $61 per barrel. Although the Trump administration's sanctions on oil-producing nations may continue to create supply risks, oil prices are expected to remain volatile as recession fears mount. The May WTI contract is now trading below $60. 🏭📉Historic S&P 500 Selloff as New Tariffs Deepen Market Turmoil 📉💥The S&P 500 experienced a historic selloff, declining more than 10% in just two days. This marks one of the worst declines in over 70 years, driven more by market sentiment and speculation than economic data. Despite this, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed is not rushing to cut interest rates. The market is positioned for a potential short-term rebound, but a significant policy shift may be needed for a sustained recovery. 📊📉Several Countries Opt for Negotiation Over Retaliation 🌍💬Taiwan, Vietnam, and India have expressed interest in negotiating trade deals with the U.S. in response to the reciprocal tariffs. These countries aim to reduce or eliminate existing tariffs rather than retaliate, with Taiwan acknowledging the challenges the new tariffs pose. Vietnam's willingness to negotiate could pave the way for other countries, like Indonesia and Cambodia, to follow suit. Over 50 countries have reportedly reached out to the White House to discuss reducing trade barriers. 🤝🌏Severe Flooding in the Midwest Threatens Infrastructure 🌧️🌊The Midwest has been hit by historic rainfall, leading to flash floods and major infrastructure disruptions. Over 16 fatalities have been confirmed, and over 50 river locations are at major flood stage. Areas such as Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri have received over 8 inches of rain, with some regions seeing over a foot. Flooding could lead to shipping delays and supply chain disruptions in key agricultural areas. 🌧️🚧Increased Net-Long Position in Corn Futures 🌽📈CFTC data revealed that large money managers increased their net-long position in the corn market last week, buying 55k corn contracts. This is the first time since February that funds were net buyers. The funds also bought 30k soybean contracts, while selling 10k contracts of SRW wheat. 📊🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 China Retaliates1:49 More Direct Payments are Coming7:08 Stock Market Crash11:11 Mexico Won't Retaliate13:52 Severe Storms17:48 Drought Monitor20:06 Export SalesFarm Aid Package: Potential for Direct Payments 💸🌾The possibility of more direct financial aid for farmers affected by tariffs is still under consideration. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that the Trump administration will decide in the coming months whether to provide assistance to offset losses from the ongoing trade disputes. The previous trade war resulted in a $23 billion bailout for farmers, and this time, the aid package could be much larger due to tariffs on multiple countries. This discussion comes as $10 billion in ECAP funds are already being distributed. 🌽🌍Stock Market Decline Amid Tariff Concerns 📉💥The stock market plummeted on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting its largest single-day drop since 2020, falling nearly 5%. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also faced sharp losses. Concerns over the impact of President Trump's new tariffs, coupled with fears of a potential recession, contributed to the decline. J.P. Morgan predicts that a recession could be likely if tariffs remain unchanged. 📉💰Commodity Index Takes a Hit ⬇️📊The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index saw its biggest drop in over two years, falling by 2.5%. While oil and steel were excluded from Trump’s tariffs, commodity prices were still impacted by market fears of a global economic slowdown. In addition, OPEC+ announced plans to increase oil production, which caused a sharp decline in WTI crude prices, marking its steepest loss since July 2022. 🛢️📉Mexico's Response to Tariffs 🇲🇽📦Mexico has decided not to retaliate against U.S. tariffs but instead will introduce its own comprehensive tariff program. Mexico remains the largest importer of U.S. corn, and Trump’s 25% tariff will apply to certain imports not covered by the USMCA trade agreement. While Mexico avoids reciprocal tariffs, its agricultural sector may still be impacted by trade disruptions. 🌽⚖️Severe Storms Cause Damage Across the US 🌪️💨Severe storms, including tornadoes and heavy rainfall, caused extensive damage from Oklahoma to Indiana, with at least six fatalities reported. Major flooding is expected, especially along the Mississippi River and in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. The storm system is forecast to continue through the weekend, with some areas receiving over a foot of rain. 🌧️🌪️Drought Monitor Update 🌾💧USDA’s weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, especially in northern areas like Wisconsin, Michigan, and southern Minnesota, following a winter storm. However, drought conditions persist in about 28% of the region, impacting areas crucial for corn, soybeans, and wheat production. 🌾💦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Tariffs and Lower Markets5:10 Historic Corn Belt Flooding8:07 Ethanol Production9:00 China Ship Sales Decline10:43 Flash SaleTrump's Trade War Escalates: New Tariffs Imposed 🌍💥President Trump escalated the trade war on Wednesday, announcing a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on Saturday. Additionally, he introduced a reciprocal tariff policy targeting 180 nations, including the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and a 34% tariff on China, bringing the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. These reciprocal tariffs will begin on April 9, with Canada and Mexico exempt, though imports not covered by the USMCA agreement will face a 25% tariff. Corn and soybean futures dropped sharply in response, while the US stock market fell to fresh lows overnight. 📉💰Historic Flooding Forecast for the Corn Belt 🌧️🌊Severe flooding is expected in the Corn Belt, with a storm system that started on Wednesday causing significant rainfall. Areas in Southeast Missouri, Southern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Southern Ohio are at risk of receiving between 10 to 15 inches of rain, with more moderate amounts expected in other regions. Over 32 million people are under a flood watch, and the flooding is expected to impact agricultural production in these regions. 🌽🌾US Ethanol Production Increases 📈🌱US ethanol production increased by 1% last week, totaling 1.06 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks decreased by 2.7% but are still 1% higher compared to the same time last year. Despite the recent dip, stock levels remain historically high. Ethanol production margins are currently near breakeven levels, according to Reuters data. 📊💡Chinese Ship Sales Decline Amid Port Fee Threat 🚢❌Chinese ship sales dropped sharply in March due to President Trump's threat to impose a $1 million port fee on Chinese vessels. This has raised concerns in the global shipping industry, particularly regarding the impact on US grain exports. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the proposed shipping fees could increase soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢📉Flash Sale of Soybean Cake and Meal 🛍️🌾US exporters sold 135,000mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean cake and meal for the year. 🌱

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Soybeans and Biofuel Push3:23 "Liberation Day"5:04 Heavy US Rainfall7:55 Farmer Sentiment Declines9:54 StoneX Cuts Brazil Crop EstimatesBiofuel Groups Push for Higher Diesel Mandates ⚡💡U.S. oil and biofuel groups, including the American Petroleum Institute, are pushing the EPA to increase federal biomass diesel blending mandates to 5.5–5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion gallons. The ethanol blending requirement is expected to stay at 15 billion gallons. However, smaller refiners and fuel retailers oppose the increase, warning of higher fuel costs and potential job losses. Additionally, some industry members are calling for the reinstatement of the blenders tax credit, arguing that the expired credit kept fuel prices lower for consumers. 🌱⛽Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Begin Today 📅⚖️President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners go into effect today. Although the specific details of the tariffs will be announced at 3 p.m. Central time, these tariffs are expected to impact U.S. agriculture, with Mexico, Canada, and China being the top buyers of U.S. agricultural products. Retaliatory tariffs could target nearly $27 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods, potentially harming farmers. Meanwhile, Canada has reportedly decided to avoid counter-tariffs on most food imports from the U.S. 🥩🌾Heavy Rains to Impact the Central U.S. 🌧️Rainfall is expected to accumulate across the central U.S. Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri. Some areas could see between 10 and 16 inches of rain over the next five days, which may impact planting schedules and soil conditions. 🌧️🌽Farmer Sentiment Drops Amid Trade and Policy Uncertainty 🌾📉U.S. farmer sentiment fell in March, according to Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index dropped to 140, a 12-point decrease from February. Falling crop prices and trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, contributed to the decline. A record number of farmers expect exports to decline in the next five years, and nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate that a second round of Market Facilitation Program payments will be necessary to mitigate trade war impacts. 📉🌾Brazil’s Soybean and Corn Crops Lowered 🌾📊Brazil’s soybean crop estimate has been reduced to 167.4 million metric tons due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Additionally, the forecasts for both the first and second corn crops have been lowered. Despite these cuts, Brazil's second corn crop is expected to receive normal rainfall over the next 14 days, and no weather issues are currently anticipated. 🌱🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 More Cash 4 Farmers5:11 USDA Report9:44 Heavy Rains11:00 Russia Wheat Update11:47 Strong Grain ShipmentsTrump Administration Considers Financial Aid Package for Farmers Amid Trade War 🏦🌾The Trump administration is preparing a financial aid package for farmers as reciprocal tariffs are set to be imposed on all U.S. trading partners tomorrow. This move is expected to trigger retaliatory tariffs that could severely impact U.S. agriculture. The new aid package could be larger than the $23 billion bailout from the 2018 trade war with China. In that previous conflict, U.S. agriculture suffered a $27 billion loss in exports. The current situation with tariffs targeting multiple countries could result in a higher cost for the aid package. 🌍💸US Farmers Set to Plant Most Corn Acres in 12 Years 🌽📈The USDA's Prospective Plantings report shows that U.S. farmers intend to plant the highest number of corn acres in 12 years, with an estimated 95.3 million acres—up 5% from last season. Soybean plantings are projected at 83.5 million acres, marking a 4% decline from last year, while wheat plantings are forecast at 45.4 million acres, down nearly 2%. The USDA's quarterly grain stocks report revealed a decrease in U.S. corn stocks, but an increase in soybean and wheat stocks compared to the previous year. 🌾🌱Heavy Rains Expected Across Central US 🌧️🌾Heavy rainfall is predicted to impact areas from eastern Texas through Ohio, with some regions potentially receiving up to 15 inches of rain over the next 10 days. The excessive rainfall could cause flooding and delay the planting of corn and soybeans in affected areas. Farmers in the wettest regions typically aim to plant early corn by today, so the heavy rains could hinder their ability to do so. 🌧️🚜Russia's Wheat Crop Forecast Revised Down 📉🌾Russia's wheat crop forecast for 2025/2026 has been lowered to 80.3 million metric tons, down from the November estimate of 81.5 million metric tons. Dry conditions earlier in the season, particularly for spring wheat, have negatively impacted crop prospects. However, recent improvements in winter wheat conditions and expected rain could provide some relief to the crop. 🌧️🌾US Corn Shipments Strong, Soybean Shipments Surge 📦🌽U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) inspected for export. This represents a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 9.7% rise from the same week last year. Soybean shipments also surpassed expectations at 793,250 metric tons (29 million bushels), up 54% from the same week last year. Wheat shipments, though down from the previous week, were still close to expectations. 📦🌾

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Acreage Report Reliability3:32 Wheat Collapse7:44 China Grain News9:24 China Cash Injection10:19 The Funds11:09 Trump/Canada TalksUSDA Report to Release Key Data on Plantings and Grain StocksThe USDA will release its highly anticipated Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Traders expect to see a significant increase in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while a notable decline in soybean plantings is anticipated. U.S. corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from the same time last year, while soybean stocks are expected to be up by 3%. Wheat stocks are forecasted to rise by 11.6%.Chicago Wheat Futures Drop to 8-Month LowWheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped to their lowest level in nearly eight months on Friday, with the May25 contract losing almost 4 cents, closing near $5.28 per bushel. Prices have been pressured by ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as ample global supplies. Weak export demand and beneficial rainfall across the U.S. Plains also contributed to the market's decline. Traders are positioning ahead of today's USDA reports.China’s Focus on Agricultural Self-SufficiencyChina is investing heavily in improving agricultural land to strengthen national food security. The nation aims to transform 200 million acres into high-standard farmland by 2030, utilizing technology to improve soil quality, crop management, and disaster resilience. By 2035, all basic farmland is expected to meet high-standard criteria. China is prioritizing food self-sufficiency and diversifying its agricultural supply chains amidst rising geopolitical tensions.China Boosts Economy with Investment in State BanksChina has invested $69 billion into four state-owned banks to bolster their financial stability and support economic growth. The government’s move will help these banks expand, strengthen their capital reserves, and invest in emerging industries. This investment also aims to address pressure from narrowing profit margins due to interest rate cuts.Funds Reduce Corn Market ExposureCFTC data shows that "The Funds" reduced their net-long position in the corn market last week, with large money managers selling 31k corn contracts. Since mid-February, the funds have slashed their net-long position by 286k contracts. The funds were also net sellers of soybean and SRW wheat contracts.President Trump and Canadian PM Discuss Tariffs and Trade FrameworkPresident Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held a productive phone call on Friday, though Canada remains set to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. this week in response to Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs. Carney criticized the tariff threats as a betrayal of the USMCA agreement. Going forward, the two leaders plan to negotiate a new economic and security framework after Canada’s upcoming election.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.President Trump Considering Lowering Tariffs on China for TikTok Agreement 🇨🇳📉President Trump is reportedly considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports as part of efforts to secure a deal with TikTok's parent company, ByteDance. This comes after President Biden's law requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok's U.S. operations by January 19. Trump extended the deadline to April 5 to allow more time for negotiations. If no deal is reached by then, Trump is open to further extensions. The move is being considered amid talks with four potential buyers. Additionally, Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs next week. Soybean futures rallied yesterday, possibly influenced by these developments and concerns about low U.S. soybean acreage. 🌱💼USDA Report to Release Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks 📊🌾The USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, which traders are closely watching. Expectations include a significant rise in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while soybean acreage is anticipated to decline. Corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from last year, while soybean stocks are expected to rise by 3%, and wheat stocks are forecasted to increase by 11.6%. These reports will provide key insights into market trends. 📉📈President Trump Encourages Collaboration on U.S. Biofuels Policy 🚗🌱President Trump has directed the U.S. fuel and oil industries to work together on shaping future biofuels policy. Two meetings have taken place, with discussions focusing on biofuel blending requirements, small refiner exemptions, and biofuel tax policies. The industry also discussed the 45Z tax credit and the potential for increasing the renewable diesel and biodiesel mandate. The new mandate range could be between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, compared to the current 3.35 billion gallons. ⚡🚗USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Corn Belt Sees Improvement 🌧️🌽The USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvements in large portions of the Corn Belt, with snow and rainfall benefiting areas like Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. However, conditions worsened in Missouri, and dry weather in South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma has led to deteriorating drought conditions in those areas. Drought is impacting 44% of U.S. corn, 36% of soybeans, and 38% of winter wheat. 🌧️📊US Corn Export Sales Decline 📉US corn export sales were reported at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels) last week, down 31% from the previous week but in line with the 4-week average. The largest buyer was Japan. Soybean sales were below expectations at 338,500 metric tons (12 million bushels), down 4% from the prior week and 28% from the 4-week average. Wheat sales also came in lower than expected at 100,300 metric tons (4 million bushels), down 65% from the previous week. 🌍📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Corn Acreage "Whisper Number"3:09 Auto Tariffs5:04 Black Sea Exports8:02 Nutrien Fertilizer Thoughts8:59 Why Are Ethanol Stocks So High?10:16 JBS NewsUS Corn Futures Fall Amid Increased Acreage Expectations-U.S. corn futures dropped on Wednesday, with the May25 contract falling nearly 7 cents to $4.51 per bushel. Traders are anticipating a significant rise in corn acreage this year, with analysts estimating 94.4 million acres, up 4.2% from last year. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged, with expectations for acreage totaling 83.8 million, a decrease of 3.8% from last season. Wheat futures were under pressure due to potential developments surrounding the Black Sea ceasefire agreement.President Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Imported Vehicles-President Trump announced that a 25% tariff will be imposed on all imported vehicles starting April 2, 2025. This permanent tariff is expected to significantly raise vehicle costs, potentially adding up to $12,000 to certain models. The move comes despite initial opposition from U.S. automakers who warned that such tariffs would harm their businesses. This new tariff will likely affect Mexico, the largest exporter of automobiles to the U.S., and Japan, the second largest exporter. Both countries are also major buyers of U.S. corn.Russian and Ukrainian Agricultural Exports Near Pre-War Levels-Despite ongoing conflicts, Russian and Ukrainian agricultural exports are almost back to pre-war levels. Ukraine's Black Sea grain shipments are performing near pre-war figures, and Russia continues to dominate the global wheat market. If a ceasefire agreement is reached, it is expected to reduce shipping costs by lowering war-related insurance premiums, making trade in the region more efficient.Nutrien Believes Black Sea Ceasefire Won't Significantly Impact Global Supplies-Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer company, believes the proposed Black Sea ceasefire deal will have minimal impact on global fertilizer or grain supplies this year. Russian fertilizer exports are operating near full capacity, and Ukraine continues strong exports through alternative routes.US Ethanol Production Declines-U.S. ethanol production saw a decline last week, with weekly output of 1.05 million barrels per day down 4.7% from the previous week and slightly lower than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose by 2.9% from the previous week and 4.8% year-over-year, staying at levels comparable to early COVID times.JBS Surpasses Earnings Expectations-JBS, the world's largest meatpacker, reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, more than double the prior year. Strong demand for chicken and pork boosted earnings as consumers turned to more affordable meat options. However, JBS faces challenges due to historically low U.S. cattle supplies, which have driven beef prices to all-time highs.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Is Brazil Buying US Corn?3:15 Corn Futures Decline7:46 Black Sea News8:51 US Will Help Russia Ship Grain9:59 Black Sea Fertilizer ImpactRising Corn Prices in Brazil 🌽💰Corn prices in Brazil have surged, driven by low stock levels and increased demand from the ethanol and livestock industries. Some areas have seen price increases of over 23% year-over-year. This price spike is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures, with agricultural consulting group Datagro estimating that food inflation could rise by 1% in the next six months. Over the past year, prices for poultry, beef, and pork have risen sharply—by 11%, 21%, and 20%, respectively. There have also been rumors about small U.S. corn exports to Brazil, a market that occasionally imports limited quantities of U.S. corn. 🌽📈U.S. Corn Futures Decline 📉U.S. corn futures fell on Tuesday, with the May25 contract dropping nearly 7 cents to settle near $4.58 per bushel. This decline was attributed to strong planting progress in the South, particularly in Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Traders are also positioning ahead of the USDA's upcoming grain stocks and prospective planting reports, with expectations for a 94.4 million-acre U.S. corn planting estimate for 2025. 🌾🌎Russia and Ukraine Agree to Black Sea Deal ⚖️Russia and Ukraine have reached a significant agreement allowing safe passage in the Black Sea and halting attacks on each other’s energy facilities. The U.S. facilitated the deal, which also includes assistance for Russia in expanding its grain and fertilizer exports. The U.S. will help Russia by reducing shipping insurance costs, improving market access, and easing port and payment restrictions. However, the deal is contingent on the EU lifting certain sanctions on Russia. Ukraine has expressed opposition to easing sanctions. ⚓🌍CF Industries Stock Decline 📉CF Industries Holdings saw its stock drop more than 4% on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level in nearly eight months. The decline followed the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which raised the likelihood of reduced trade sanctions on Russia. This is expected to increase fertilizer supplies from the region, lower shipping costs, and reduce market volatility, benefiting Russia’s fertilizer exports. 📉💡

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Soybean Export Concerns and Proposed Shipping Fees 🚢Mike Koehne, a director for the American Soybean Association, voiced concerns during a U.S. Trade Representative investigation into China’s shipbuilding industry. He highlighted that the proposed shipping fees could significantly increase the cost of U.S. soybeans and make them less competitive globally. With 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel of soybeans at risk due to higher shipping costs, ASA urges the USTR to collaborate with industries to strengthen maritime trade without harming agriculture. 🌾🚢Russia's Wheat Crop Forecast Improved 🌾Russian consulting firm IKAR has raised its forecast for Russia's wheat crop to 82.5 million metric tons (mmt), up nearly 2% from earlier estimates. While conditions in the south-central regions have improved, uncertainty remains in the Volga region. IKAR's projections range between 78.5 mmt and 86.5 mmt. This adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook, though the situation is still evolving. 🇷🇺🌾US and Russia Discuss Black Sea Grain Deal ⚖️Discussions in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Russian officials have focused on potentially reinstating the Black Sea grain deal. Russia, which withdrew from the agreement last year, raised concerns about barriers to its own food and fertilizer exports. The deal was originally meant to facilitate safe grain exports from Ukraine despite the war. A joint statement regarding the outcome of the talks is expected soon. 🌍🌾Brazil’s Soybean Production Revised Down 🌱🇧🇷Brazil's soybean production forecast has been slightly reduced due to drought conditions affecting southern Brazil. The new estimate stands at 165.9 mmt, a 1.4% decrease from earlier projections. However, the country is still on track for a record soybean harvest, particularly in Mato Grosso. Harvest progress is advancing rapidly, with 77% of the crop already collected. 🌱💧Brazil's Economic Outlook 🌍📉Despite concerns over Brazil's slowing economy and rising interest rates, Bloomberg Economics reports only a 10% chance of a recession. While higher rates are cooling inflation, the delayed effects are still unfolding. A potential recession would likely have minimal impact on soybean production, though it could affect domestic consumption, leading to more exportable supply. 💸🇧🇷US Corn and Soybean Export Data 📈U.S. corn shipments dropped slightly last week but remain strong, with 1.5 million metric tons (58 million bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments saw a significant increase, rising 25% from the prior week, with 822,214 metric tons (30 million bushels) inspected for export. Wheat export sales also exceeded expectations. 📊🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Rollins BIG Announcement3:48 Trump and China5:19 The Funds7:39 Mexico Corn Imports9:02 Roundup Settlement10:26 Cattle on FeedSecretary Rollins on Long-Term Agricultural Prosperity 🌱🚜US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the long-term benefits of President Trump's policies for farmers and ranchers, despite the ongoing challenges of tariffs and market volatility. In a recent interview, Rollins acknowledged the struggles under the Biden administration but expressed confidence that, by the end of Trump's term, the agricultural industry will thrive. She highlighted the importance of short-term uncertainty for achieving long-term success. The airplane emoji in Rollins' X post could be a nod to the growing focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Trump Teases Flexibility on Reciprocal Tariffs 💼⚖️President Trump suggested some flexibility regarding the upcoming reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect on April 2. While markets briefly rallied after the statement, the excitement quickly faded as concerns about stagflation grew. Trump also mentioned that negotiations with China remain possible, with a meeting with President Xi Jinping potentially on the horizon.Funds Trim Corn Positions 📉🌽The latest CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in corn by 28k contracts. This is part of a broader trend of funds slashing their corn positions since mid-February, cutting back a total of 255k contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat positions also saw reductions. Mexico's Corn Imports Set to Decline 🌽🇲🇽Mexico's corn imports are forecast to decline by 3% in the 2025/2026 season, driven by a boost in domestic production and carryover stocks from record-high imports last year. Despite the drop, imports are expected to remain the second-highest on record. Increased demand for yellow corn, particularly for poultry feed, continues to drive the need for imports. Bayer Faces Legal Setback in Roundup Lawsuit ⚖️💼 Bayer has been ordered to pay $ 2.1 billion in damages over its Roundup weedkiller, which was linked to cancer by the plaintiff. Bayer plans to appeal the ruling, and they've already spent $10 billion in settlements, part of the $16 billion allocated for Roundup-related litigation. The company has struggled since acquiring Monsanto in 2018, with stock prices dropping over 70%. 📉⚖️Cattle on Feed Report Bullish 🐄📊 FridayFriday's Cattle on Feed report showed a 2% decrease in cattle on feed as of March 1, compared to last year, but in line with pre-report estimates. February placements came in much lower than anticipated, suggesting a tighter supply of cattle. This is expected to be bullish for the market, as fewer cattle on feed and limited imports of Mexican feeder cattle have constrained supply. 🐄💥

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Rally Corn futures surged on Thursday, with the May 2025 contract peaking near $4.70 and gaining 7 cents per bushel. However, new crop contracts saw limited gains, with the December 2025 contract rising by less than 2 cents. 📈 Strong export sales may have fueled the rally, and some analysts believe the USDA is underestimating U.S. export demand. 🌾 Wheat and Soybean Export Sales U.S. wheat export sales saw a major net reduction last week, with a marketing-year low of 248,800mt (9 million bushels), falling below expectations. This decline was largely due to Panama, which had been a top buyer the previous week. Net corn sales, however, rose 55% from the previous week to 1.5mmt (59 million bushels), with Japan leading purchases. 🌎 Soybean sales underperformed, totaling 352,600mt (13 million bushels), down 53% from last week, with China as the largest buyer. 🌦 Drought Conditions in the U.S. The latest USDA drought monitor shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt. Rainfall improved drought conditions in Illinois, Indiana, and southern Michigan, but Missouri saw worsening conditions. 🌬 The High Plains faced dry, windy weather, leading to deteriorating conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma. 🔹 Corn: 53% in drought 🔹 Soybeans: 42% in drought 🔹 Winter Wheat: 34% in drought 🔹 Spring Wheat: 39% in drought 🔹 Cattle: 43% in drought 🛢 Biofuel Industry Faces Uncertainty U.S. and Canadian biofuel companies are cutting production amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's biofuel subsidies and trade policies. The lack of finalized 45Z tax credit guidance and shifting tariff policies are creating instability. 📉 Declining demand, excess soybean supply, and a 60% drop in crush margins are expected to reduce U.S. soybean acres this spring. The biofuel sector is likely to shrink further, with significant financial losses ahead. Meanwhile, the IRS and Treasury Department are accepting public comments on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit until April 12. Trump's regulatory freeze could delay or halt finalization. 🇦🇷 Argentina's Crop Forecast Cut The Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered Argentina’s soybean crop forecast to 48.6mmt, down 1mmt due to hot and dry weather in the northeastern region, which accounts for 10% of production. ☀️ These conditions could reduce yields by 22%. Drought is also impacting Argentina's corn crop, with projected yields now expected to drop by 40%. Despite this, the exchange maintained its corn crop forecast at 49mmt due to a 7.6% increase in planted acres. 🥃 EU Delays Whiskey Tariff The EU has postponed its planned 50% tariff on American whiskey, originally set for April 1, now pushed to mid-April. 🍾 This aligns with broader trade negotiations in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. U.S. distillers have been rushing shipments to Europe ahead of potential tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol in retaliation. 🌍

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚢 Trump’s China-Linked Ship Fees Impact US Agriculture President Trump is drafting an executive order to impose fees of up to $1.5 million on China-built ships docking at U.S. ports. While the move aims to boost domestic shipbuilding, it has caused uncertainty for agricultural exports. 🌾 Exporters of corn, soybeans, and wheat are struggling to secure transportation beyond May due to unclear final costs. The Farm Bureau warns that bulk agricultural exporters could face an extra $372 million to $930 million in annual transportation fees. 🇨🇳 China Lowers Soybean Import Forecast The USDA’s China attaché office has reduced its forecast for Chinese soybean imports to 106mmt this season, a 2% drop from last year. 📉 Economic challenges and shifting consumer preferences toward poultry and seafood over pork are driving the decline. Additionally, China’s soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.1% to 19.8mmt due to low market prices. The Chinese government continues to support domestic soybean production through subsidies to reduce reliance on imports. ⚡ Zelenskiy and Trump Agree to Halt Energy Strikes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has agreed to a mutual halt on energy facility strikes following a call with President Trump. 📞 This marks a shift in tone after their tense Oval Office exchange weeks prior. Trump pledged fresh support for Ukraine, including potential air defense systems. Meanwhile, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to pause attacks on energy sites. However, Putin insists that any broader ceasefire must include stopping weapons and intelligence aid to Ukraine and allowing Russia to keep occupied land. 🇧🇷 Brazil Cuts Soybean Production Forecast The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries has lowered its soybean production estimate to 170.9mmt, down slightly from 171.7mmt. 🌱 Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, estimates 167.4mmt, while the USDA projects 169mmt. Private group AgRural reports that 70% of the harvest is complete. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean oil exports are expected to increase by 27% to 1.4mmt due to weaker domestic demand. ⛽ US Ethanol Production Remains Strong US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 4% from the previous week and 5.6% higher than the same time last year. 📊 Ethanol stocks were at 26.6 million barrels, down 2.9% from the previous week but up 2.2% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% week-over-week but remained slightly higher than last year’s levels. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand has been relatively stable compared to last year. 💰 Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 4.3% on Wednesday as it continues assessing the economic impact of Trump’s policies. 🏦 Eleven of nineteen policymakers expect at least two rate cuts this year. Due to proposed tariffs, the Fed raised its 2024 inflation forecast to 2.7%, up from 2.5%. However, inflation is expected to decline in 2026-2027. The Fed also revised its GDP growth projection for 2025 to 1.7%, down from its December estimate of 2.1%, citing economic uncertainty driven by tariffs, deregulation, and energy policies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Payment Details3:38 US Acreage Ideas8:24 Brazil Increases Ethanol Blend Rate9:54 China Reduces Grain Imports11:25 Bessent Says No RecessionUSDA Boosts Economic Aid for Farmers 💵🌾The USDA is accelerating the distribution of $10 billion in economic aid to farmers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP). These funds are aimed at supporting farmers facing challenging market conditions and rising input costs. Enrollment starts today, with funds available for both planted and prevented plant crop acres during the 2024 crop year. More details and the ECAP payment calculator are available on the USDA website. 🚜💰S&P Global Increases US Corn Acreage Forecast 🌽📊S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its forecast for US corn acreage to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 from January's estimate. This increase reflects the growing demand for corn. However, soybean acreage is expected to decline to 83.3 million acres. Last year's acreage was higher, at 86.1 million acres. 📈🌱Brazil Proposes Higher Ethanol Blend in Gasoline ⛽🌿Brazil is considering raising the ethanol blend in gasoline from 27.5% to 30% to meet rising ethanol demand. This move is expected to boost annual ethanol demand by 1.3 billion liters, with 12 new corn ethanol plants under construction. The proposal is set to be approved later this year, paving the way for increased ethanol production. 🌾🌍China's Sharp Decline in Corn and Wheat Imports 📉🌾China’s imports of corn and wheat plummeted in January and February, dropping by 97.1% and 95.6%, respectively. The country's food security policy focuses on self-sufficiency, leading to significantly lower import needs. USDA has lowered its forecast for China’s corn imports this year to 8 million metric tons, down from an initial 23 million. Wheat imports have also been revised down to 6.5 million metric tons. 🚫🌾Treasury Secretary Confident in US Economy 💼📈Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in the U.S. economy's resilience, citing strong credit card and bank data. While acknowledging a potential slowdown as the economy adjusts to reduced government spending, Bessent emphasized that President Trump is focusing on revitalizing manufacturing and improving affordability. He also noted that reciprocal tariffs for each country will be announced on April 2. 💪💸

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Wheat Rally2:29 Poor Soybean Crush5:06 China Meat Update7:59 Brazil Crop Update9:59 USTR11:22 Grain ShipmentsWheat Futures Surge Amid Storm Concerns 🌾💨Wheat futures climbed higher on Monday due to concerns over crop damage from severe windstorms and tornadoes in the Midwest and Plains. The full extent of the damage remains uncertain, but the intensity of the winds and dust is expected to impact the affected fields significantly. The rise in futures was further supported by Russia reducing its wheat export forecast and strong U.S. wheat export sales from last week. 🌪️📈Soybean Crush Declines in February 🥄📉The U.S. soybean crush hit its lowest level in five months, with NOPA members processing 177.9 million bushels in February. The crush was down 11.2% from January and fell short of trade expectations. Despite the lower crush, soybean oil stocks rose to an eight-month high, with stocks increasing by 18% from January. 📊🛢️China Renews Export Licenses for U.S. Pork & Poultry 🐖🐔China has renewed export licenses for U.S. pork and poultry facilities, allowing them to continue shipments for the next five years. However, the renewal for U.S. beef facilities is still pending. The Phase One trade agreement had expected automatic renewals, but trade tensions remain as retaliatory tariffs continue on U.S. agricultural products. 🇨🇳💥Brazil’s Soybean Harvest on Track 🇧🇷🌱Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing at its fastest rate in 14 years, with 70% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. Despite the accelerated pace, there are concerns about yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul due to hot and dry conditions. AgRural also reported that Brazilian farmers had planted 97% of their second corn crop. 🌾🌞Greer Aims to Smooth Tariff Implementation 💼⚖️U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is working to ensure the smoother implementation of President Trump’s upcoming tariffs. Despite ongoing tariff-related confusion and market volatility, Greer is bringing back traditional processes, including public comments. While concerns over legal challenges persist, Trump remains firm on moving forward with the tariff plan. 📉📑U.S. Export Shipments Show Mixed Results 🚢📉U.S. corn shipments declined slightly last week, but they remained strong, with 1.7 million metric tons inspected for export. Soybean shipments dropped by 24% compared to the prior week, while wheat shipments surged by 104%, surpassing expectations. The wheat shipment increase reflects strong demand despite ongoing tariff uncertainties. 🌽🌾

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.China Retires Meat Export Licenses 🚫🥩Hundreds of U.S. meat exporters have lost their authorization to send beef, pork, and poultry to China, potentially costing the beef industry $4.1 billion and the pork industry $1.3 billion. This move comes amid trade tensions, with speculations about a shift in China’s trade policies, including increasing inquiries for Australian beef. Despite the challenges, U.S. exporters still have significant unshipped soybean sales to China. 🌏💸Wheat Futures Soar 🌾📈Wheat futures are trading sharply higher, especially HRW contracts, following news that Russian wheat export forecasts were trimmed. This has led to increased export demand for U.S. wheat. Weather forecasts show minimal rain for U.S. HRW wheat regions but slightly better rainfall for SRW wheat areas. The strong export sales last week further support the positive market movement. 🌾🌧Brazil's Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷🌱Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing faster than last year, with 66% of the crop harvested compared to 62% at the same time last year. Despite hot and dry conditions in some southern regions, the national crop is expected to set a record. However, U.S. soybeans are still non-competitive against Brazil's exports, especially with pricing data showing a premium for U.S. soybeans. 🌞📊Funds Trim Their Corn Positions 📉🌽The funds significantly reduced their net-long position in the corn market, selling 74,000 contracts. Over the past three weeks, the funds have slashed their positions by 227,000 contracts. They were net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat, signaling a shift in market focus. 📉💼Tax Cuts and Budget Balancing Plan 💰📊President Trump’s administration plans to cut federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 annually. The strategy to balance the budget includes reallocating $1 trillion from wasteful spending and generating an additional $1 trillion through the sale of a "gold card." While tax cuts may be beneficial, the focus remains on the long-term fiscal health of the country. 💵⚖️Flash Sales for U.S. Exports 🌾🚢USDA reported two flash sales on Friday, with U.S. exporters selling 218,604 metric tons of corn and 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. These sales provide a positive signal for U.S. agricultural exports despite current uncertainties. 📦🚜

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Wheat Export Sales Surge 📈🌾US wheat export sales soared last week, reaching 783,400 metric tons (29 million bushels), which was 83% higher than the previous four-week average. Panama was the largest buyer. Corn and soybean sales were also strong, with corn sales at 967,300 metric tons and soybean sales surpassing expectations at 751,700 metric tons. Mexico and China were the largest buyers for corn and soybeans, respectively. 🌽🌱Trump Threatens 200% Tariff on European Wine 🍷💥In retaliation for the EU's proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits. This trade spat comes after Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU has also planned tariffs on various US agricultural goods. Both Canada and the EU are significant buyers of US ethanol, and the situation could have a ripple effect on ethanol exports. 🍇🇪🇺Brazil’s Soybean Production Forecast Raised 📊🌿Brazil's soybean production forecast was increased to 167.4 million metric tons, up 1% from February's estimate, despite hot and dry conditions in the south. China's demand for Brazilian exports is expected to rise due to the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total corn production forecast was slightly raised to 122.8 million metric tons, marking a 6.1% increase from last season. 🇧🇷🌾Treasury Secretary Stresses Long-Term Economic Focus 📉💼Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the Trump administration’s focus on long-term growth, stating that short-term market volatility is not a concern. He assured that well-implemented policies would foster economic growth and job creation in the future. This comes amid the stock market's correction due to ongoing trade tensions. 📊📈Drought Conditions Persist in US Corn Belt 🌾🌧Scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt led to improvements in drought conditions in some areas, but others, particularly in western Illinois and western Minnesota, saw worsening conditions due to a lack of rain. The High Plains also experienced scattered rainfall, with conditions improving in Nebraska and Kansas. However, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma are seeing worsening drought conditions. 🌾🌞

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.EU Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Agricultural Exports 🌾President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted the European Union to announce retaliatory tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including agricultural products like corn, soybeans, beef, and poultry. These tariffs could hurt the EU livestock industry, but the EU remains open to negotiations, with feed grains possibly playing a role in easing tensions. 🚜Canadian Farmers Shifting Crops Due to Tariff Threats 🍁🌾Canadian farmers are expected to plant more wheat (+2.6%) and less canola (-1.7%) this year. However, the tariff threats from the U.S. and China have led to uncertainty in planting intentions. China announced a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, while Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian goods will start in April, adding further pressure on the market. 🌱Hedge Funds Cut Market Exposure Amid Trade and Economic Concerns 📉Concerns about tariffs and a slowing economy prompted hedge funds to reduce their market exposure. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 9% from its peak, with a significant reduction in positions from industrial stocks. This sharp de-grossing follows fears of lower consumer spending, corporate profit declines, and a potential recession. 📉U.S. Ethanol Stocks Remain High Amid Steady Production ⛽U.S. ethanol stocks rose slightly to 27.4 million barrels, remaining at historically high levels. Despite a minor week-over-week drop in production, ethanol output remains above last year's levels. Gasoline demand showed a slight increase, with ethanol stocks still reflective of early COVID-era levels. ⛽📊US Consumer Prices Rise at Slowest Pace in Four Months 📉💵Inflation increased by 0.2% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% rise and below expectations. On an annual basis, inflation reached 2.8%, a decrease from January’s 3%. Despite this moderation, there are concerns that tariffs could drive prices higher in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates as policymakers monitor inflation. 📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Balance Sheets Unchanged 📊🌽The USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged, despite expectations for reductions in corn ending stocks due to strong export demand. Soybean stock estimates were also left the same, though some analysts had hoped for a slight decrease. The USDA refrained from making any changes as they await developments regarding US tariffs and global reactions. The wheat balance sheet saw a minor adjustment, with stock levels rising more than expected. Markets responded negatively, driven by lower-than-expected demand estimates for corn and increased wheat inventories. 🌾President Trump Softens Tariff Threat Against Canada 🇨🇦📉After a conversation between Ontario’s Premier and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, President Trump decided to scale back his initial threat of doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. The pause on Ontario’s 25% electricity tax led to the reversal, with Trump sticking to a 25% tariff on Canadian metals instead. This came alongside Trump’s assertion that the US economy will experience a strong boom rather than a recession, despite ongoing tariff tensions. 💼Soybean Production in Rio Grande do Sul Drops 📉The soybean outlook in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s key soybean-producing state, has worsened. Local crop agency Emater reported a 30% reduction in the state’s crop estimate due to prolonged hot and dry conditions. However, Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, still projects a record-high national soybean crop of 166mmt, despite these regional reductions. 🌱Russian Missile Attack in Odesa Hits Grain Vessel ⚔️🌾A Russian missile struck the Black Sea port of Odesa, damaging a grain vessel and killing four crew members and a port employee. The attack occurred while the vessel was loading wheat destined for Algeria. Both Russia and Ukraine have intensified their military actions, while the Trump administration continues to push for peace talks. 🚢💥Stock Market Losses Extend Amid Tariff Uncertainty 📉💰The stock market saw further losses on Tuesday, primarily due to concerns about President Trump’s tariff threats against Canada. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, entering correction territory, while the Dow Jones lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%. The volatility was fueled by shifting trade policy decisions and unsettled consumer confidence. Investors are awaiting the February CPI report, with projections indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to January. 📉📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.00:00 Export Inspections3:03 Canola Market5:20 Brazilian Soybean Harvest7:19 USDA Report8:59 Stock Market10:50 Flash Sales🌽 Strong US Corn Shipments, Mixed Results for Other Grains US corn shipments surged last week, with USDA reporting 1.8 million metric tons (72 million bushels) shipped for the week ending March 6. This exceeded expectations, rising 35% from the prior week and 56% from the same period last year. Soybean shipments also increased, reaching 844,218 metric tons (31 million bushels), up 21% from the previous week and 7.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, wheat shipments fell short of expectations at 216,173 metric tons (8 million bushels), marking a 45% decline from the prior week and a 55% drop compared to last year. 🇨🇦 Canola Market Hit by China’s Tariffs Canola prices tumbled after China imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal in retaliation for Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs. While Canadian farmers faced significant losses on Monday, prices stabilized somewhat today. Notably, canola seed exports remain unaffected for now. With 95% of canola exports heading to the US, Canadian producers are in a tough spot. 🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Progressing, Weather Concerns Persist Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving faster than last year, with 61% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday, compared to 55% at the same time in 2023. However, concerns remain over soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul due to hot and dry conditions. Brazil’s second corn crop planting is nearly complete, with 92% finished—just shy of last year’s 93%. 📊 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Due Today The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report at 11 AM CST. While the report is usually uneventful, traders will be watching for any adjustments related to trade policies. No major changes are anticipated for South American crops.📉 Stock Market Slumps Amid Recession Fears The stock market took a hit on Monday due to growing recession concerns. The Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq plunged 4%, marking its worst session since September 2022. Tech stocks saw steep losses as investors worried about the economic impact of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, spending cuts, and geopolitical shifts. Adding to concerns, Trump refused to rule out a US recession over the weekend, calling the current economic situation a "transition period." Economic fears also led to a sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which dropped to 4.2% from its recent 4.8% peak.🚀 USDA Reports Two Flash Sales126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.195,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌎📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Imposes $2.6 Billion in Tariffs on Canada China has placed $2.6 billion in tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, starting March 20. This includes a 100% levy on $1 billion worth of canola oil, oil cakes, and pea imports. 🌾🥜 Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to $1.6 billion worth of aquatic products and pork. 🐟🐖 The move is in retaliation for Canada's 2023 tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. Interestingly, canola seeds were excluded, signaling China’s openness to negotiations. Some analysts see this as a warning to Canada, discouraging it from aligning too closely with U.S. trade policies. ⚖️🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Trump on Possible Recession & Tariffs In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump declined to rule out a potential recession or higher inflation. 📉💰 He admitted that his tariffs might cause a transition period but emphasized their long-term benefits. Trump particularly highlighted the advantages for U.S. agriculture but provided no specific details. 🌾🇺🇸 He also reinforced his vision of a business-driven economy, rather than one reliant on government intervention. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession concerns, instead predicting strong U.S. economic growth in the next two years. 📈💼 🌽 Funds Dump Corn & Soybean Holdings "The Funds" cut their net-long positions in the corn market last week, according to CFTC's Commitment of Traders report released Friday. During the week ending March 4, large money managers were net sellers of 127k corn contracts, marking the biggest weekly selloff since February 2023. 📉🌽 Additionally, they sold off 48k soybean contracts and 18k contracts of SRW wheat. 🌾💰 🥚 DOJ Investigates Surging Egg Prices The DOJ has launched an antitrust investigation into soaring egg prices, probing whether major producers colluded to inflate prices or restrict supply for higher profits. 📊⚖️  Egg prices have surged over 50% year-over-year, with consumers paying about $5 per dozen. 🥚💵 The egg industry blames the price hike on the worst bird flu outbreak in U.S. history, which has led to the destruction of 150+ million chickens, turkeys, and egg-laying hens. To address the crisis, the USDA has allocated $1 billion to fight bird flu and stabilize egg prices. 🏛️🐔 📉 US Job Growth Misses Expectations The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the 170,000 projection despite being higher than January’s revised 125,000. 👷📊 The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4%, while average hourly wages increased 0.3%, as expected. However, the annual wage growth of 4% was slightly below the expected 4.2%. Meanwhile, the number of part-time workers for economic reasons jumped to 4.9 million, the highest since October 2021. The Department of Government Efficiency also cut 5,000 federal jobs in January—the first decline in federal employment since June 2022. 🏛️📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeTrade & Market Updates 🌍📉President Trump has temporarily paused tariffs on Mexican imports under the USMCA agreement, exempting them from his recently imposed 25% tariff until April 2. The decision came after a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who reported a 41% drop in fentanyl seizures at the border from January to February. Later, Trump extended the same exemption to Canadian imports under the trade deal. His shifting stance on tariffs has created market uncertainty, weakening consumer confidence and causing financial markets to plunge on Thursday—Dow -1%, S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.6%.📉The U.S. is moving to impose docking fees on Chinese-linked vessels and pressuring allies to follow suit or risk retaliation. This effort aims to strengthen domestic shipbuilding and reduce China’s influence in global shipping. The draft order also includes tariffs on Chinese cargo-handling equipment. Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative's office recommended fees of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports following an investigation into China’s dominance in global shipping. 🚢⚖️Amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, Brazil 🇧🇷 is poised to increase its agricultural exports to China. Earlier this week, Trump raised tariffs on China by 10%, prompting China to retaliate with 15% tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including meat and soybeans. Chinese importers may now favor tariff-free grains & protein from Brazil. A similar shift occurred during Trump's first term, when the U.S.-China trade war led to a major decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, a market share the U.S. never fully recovered. These new tariffs, though lower than before, may accelerate China’s move away from U.S. agricultural supplies. 🌾🇨🇳U.S. corn exports increased last week, with 909,100 MT (36 million bushels) sold—up 15% from the previous week but down 32% vs. the 4-week average. Japan was the largest buyer. Soybean sales reached 352,900 MT (13 million bushels), down 14% weekly but stable vs. the 4-week average, with China as the top buyer. Wheat sales hit 338,700 MT (12 million bushels), up 26% weekly but down 25% vs. the 4-week average, with Mexico leading purchases. 📊🌽🫘The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening drought in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, with below-average snowfall in Minnesota raising concerns. Currently, 43% of the Corn Belt is experiencing drought, up from 32% in January. The High Plains remained mostly dry, with drought expanding in Kansas & Oklahoma. 🔥🌾Drought Impact by Crop:🌽 Corn: 60%🫘 Soybeans: 50%🌾 Winter Wheat: 24% | Spring Wheat: 39%🐄 Cattle: 38%The USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil on Thursday for delivery in 2024/2025, mirroring a similar sale on Tuesday. 🚀

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Temporary Tariff Exemption for Canadian and Mexican Auto Imports 🚗📈On Wednesday, President Trump announced a one-month exemption from the 25% tariffs on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico. The pause, which responds to requests from automakers, has boosted stock markets. The exemption applies to manufacturers under the USMCA trade agreement. Despite this, Trump plans to continue using tariffs as leverage to address fentanyl smuggling concerns. Last year, automotive trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico totaled $345 billion, with a surplus for the US with Canada and a deficit with Mexico. 🇨🇦🇲🇽Potential Agricultural Product Exemptions from Tariffs 🌾💡Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins hinted at possible relief for agricultural sectors, suggesting that potash and fertilizer could be exempt from the recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This comes after Trump’s 25% tariffs on both countries and an additional 10% on China. Retaliatory tariffs have already been implemented by Canada and China, with Mexico expected to follow suit soon. 🌱Risk of Export Cancellations Due to Tariffs 📉US farmers are facing the risk of significant export cancellations due to rising tariffs and trade uncertainty. About 12 million tons of US crops, particularly corn and soybeans, could be at risk. Mexico, the largest importer of US corn, still has 7.8 million tons of corn unshipped. Additionally, soybean sales to China may be deferred or canceled, although the impact on soybeans is expected to be smaller. 🌽🌱President Trump Urges Farmers to Remain Patient Amid Tariff Challenges 💼🌾In his address to Congress, President Trump urged farmers to stay patient as tariffs take a toll on the agricultural industry. Despite some early gains in corn and soybean markets, retaliatory tariffs have caused significant losses. However, the initial portion of the $30 billion in federal farm aid is set to be distributed soon, offering some relief. 💸Russia's Wheat Crop in Better Condition than Expected 🌾❄️Russia's wheat crop is reported to be in better condition than initially expected, following a mild winter with warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall. In December, over 37% of Russia's winter crops were in poor condition, but the crop’s improved status has led to fewer production and export concerns. 🌾US Dollar Drops Amid Tariff Concerns 💵📉The US dollar dropped to a three-month low on Wednesday, following the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This decline, which saw a 1% fall in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, signals growing concerns over a potential global trade war and its effect on economic growth. The dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency is also under scrutiny due to shifting global political landscapes. 🌍US Ethanol Stocks Near Record Levels 📊Ethanol stocks in the US remain near historically high levels, with a slight decrease from the previous week but still up 4.8% compared to last year. Weekly ethanol output increased by 1.1%, with gasoline demand rising 5% for the week, though still lower than last year. Ethanol production continues to play a significant role in the US biofuel industry. ⛽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.US Corn and Soybean Futures Drop Amid Trade Tensions 🚜💥Corn and soybean futures plummeted on Tuesday as trade tensions intensified. Corn futures hit their lowest levels of the year, while soybean prices fell below $10 per bushel. The drop was fueled by the US imposing steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, triggering swift retaliations from Ottawa and Beijing. There’s concern that rising trade tensions could push the global economy toward a recession, reducing demand for commodities. Corn prices have dropped 14% since mid-February, compounded by better crop prospects from South America. 📉Potential Tariff Relief for Canada and Mexico 🤝Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that President Trump might offer tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, provided they comply with the USMCA trade agreement. While a full tariff removal is unlikely, adjustments may be on the table. Both sides are in talks, with a potential deal expected soon. Bipartisan pressure is mounting on Trump to reconsider these tariffs due to their potential impact on consumer prices and the agricultural sector. 🌾Mexico to Announce Retaliatory Tariffs on Sunday 🇲🇽Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed that Mexico will impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. The delay in the announcement reflects Mexico's efforts to avoid a trade war. Mexico's retaliatory measures are expected to hurt U.S. consumers and businesses, particularly since 80% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., which accounted for over $800 billion in trade last year. 🌎US Economic Activity Could Plunge Due to Trade War 📉The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has revised its first-quarter growth forecast down to a 2.8% decline, a sharp shift from a previous estimate of 2.3% growth. This marks a drastic change from the 4% growth forecast just one month ago. These gloomy projections reflect growing concerns over the economic impact of the escalating trade war, and the US stock market has taken a hit, erasing post-inauguration gains. 📉US Farmer Sentiment Rises Despite Trade War Concerns 🌾💡US farmer sentiment increased in February, with Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 152. This boost was driven by higher crop and livestock prices and anticipation of federal farm aid payments. Despite optimism about the future, trade policy remains a major concern, with nearly half of farmers believing a trade war is likely or very likely. 🌱USDA Reports Flash Sales of Wheat and Soybean Oil 🌾💰US exporters secured two flash sales on Tuesday: 130,000mt (5 million bushels) of white wheat to South Korea for the 2024/2025 marketing year, and 20,000mt of soybean oil to unknown destinations. These sales reflect continued demand for US agricultural products despite the ongoing trade tensions. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump Confirms Tariffs1:28 China Tariffs US Soybean Imports4:51 US Ag Import Tariffs?8:31 Brazil / Argentina Update9:47 India Wheat Problems11:07 Grain Shipments12:11 Flash SaleTariffs Take Effect Today: Canada, Mexico, and China Impacted 🌎Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are now in place, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on both countries. These tariffs, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, have sparked concerns, sending the stock market down. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and Dow Jones slid 1.5%. The grain markets also saw selling pressure in response. 📉China Announces Tariffs on US Agricultural Products 🌾China has imposed 10-15% tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. The new tariffs will take effect on March 10th, further escalating trade tensions. Canada has also announced retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico has signaled patience without formal retaliation yet. 🐄🌽Trump's Agricultural Tariffs Starting April 2nd 🍅President Trump plans to implement tariffs on agricultural imports starting April 2nd as part of reciprocal tariffs targeting US trading partners. These tariffs could impact fruits, vegetables, and nuts, as well as used cooking oil from China for biofuel production. The USDA has forecasted a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion for the year. 🍋Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷Brazil's soybean harvest is slightly ahead of last year, with 50% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. However, concerns persist in states like Rio Grande do Sul, where hot and dry conditions are causing crop losses. AgRural has reduced its soybean outlook for the season to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt. 🌾India Seeks Relief on Wheat Import Tax 🇮🇳India’s wheat millers are pushing for the removal or reduction of a 40% import tax as the nation’s stockpiles have fallen to the lowest levels in almost 16 years. Reduced domestic production and the government’s release of reserves have contributed to the shortage, with hot and dry weather forecasts adding further concerns about this season’s crop. 🌾🔥US Corn Shipments Strong Despite Tariff Concerns 🌽US corn shipments were near the upper end of expectations last week, with 1.4mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments were lower than expected, while wheat shipments showed a slight increase. Despite ongoing tariff threats, Mexico continues to be a top buyer of US corn this season. 🚢Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 💥US exporters sold 114,000mt (4mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Mexico remains one of the top buyers of US corn, even amidst the threat of tariffs.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.China's Potential Retaliation Against US Agricultural Imports 🌾China is reportedly considering targeting US agricultural imports, including soybeans, in response to President Trump’s 10% tariff threat. China has been the largest buyer of US soybeans, accounting for 47% of US export commitments. With most of this year's sales already shipped, unshipped sales and new crop sales could be at risk. 📉$30 Billion in Federal Farm Assistance Coming Soon 💰The USDA is preparing to release the first portion of the $30 billion in farm assistance, with the first $10 billion expected in the coming weeks. This support is designed to help offset poor markets and provide disaster relief. Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the urgency of delivering these funds efficiently, with a hard deadline of March 21st for payments. ⏳Improved Crop Insurance for Corn 🌽, Higher Risk for Soybeans 🌱The USDA's crop insurance for 2025 offers improved coverage for corn, with a spring price of $4.70 per bushel, up 4 cents from last year. Soybean coverage is more at risk, with a projected price drop to $10.54, down $1.01. Corn’s stronger coverage could lead to a significant increase in corn planting this season. 📊Funds Trim Net-Long Position in Corn 🛑CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in the corn market by 26k contracts last week. This selling trend is reflected in soybean and wheat markets as well, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment. The funds are now estimated to hold a net-long position of only 250-260k contracts in corn. 💹China Tightens Grain Regulations 🇨🇳China plans to strengthen regulations around grain purchases and storage to prevent volatility and ensure price stability. This move is aimed at further bolstering stockpiles of both corn and wheat, possibly through increased imports or purchases of domestic supplies. 📉Russian Attack on Odesa Port ⚔️A Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa damaged a civilian vessel and port infrastructure, injuring workers. This follows President Trump’s recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. The attack occurred just before the expected signing of a minerals agreement, which was ultimately not finalized. 🔥Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🛒US exporters sold 20,000mt of soybean oil for delivery in 2024/2025, marking the first flash sale of soybean oil for 2025. This signals strong export interest in US soybean oil amidst global market uncertainty. 🛢️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 94mil Corn Acres?7:34 New Tariff Update9:34 Southwest Airlines Ditches SAF Plans13:30 Drought Update16:07 Export SalesUSDA Projects Record Corn Crop 🌽The USDA anticipates a significant increase in corn acreage this season, with farmers expected to plant 94 million acres, up 3.8% from last year. Corn’s favorable prices are a key driver of this increase, and the total corn production is projected to hit a record 15.6 billion bushels. However, soybean acreage is expected to decline by 3.6%, with 84 million acres planted, resulting in the fourth-largest soybean crop on record at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is expected to rise by 2%, reaching 47 million acres. 📊Trump's Tariff Plan Escalates 💥President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on China and confirmed that the previously planned 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go into effect on March 4. These tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances and the flow of fentanyl into the US. While the tariffs are set to hit a range of imports, including steel, it’s still unclear whether corn and soybeans will be directly impacted by retaliatory measures from Canada or Mexico. 🛑🌏Southwest Airlines Scales Back on SAF 🌱✈️Southwest Airlines is cutting back its commitment to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The airline laid off employees and terminated its newly-formed team focused on cleaner fuels. SAF, which is derived from feedstocks like corn husks, has become an important part of efforts to reduce climate pollution, but it represents less than 0.1% of Southwest's total jet fuel use. The airline had previously committed to using 10% SAF by 2030, but its decision signals challenges in reaching that goal. 🚫🌍Drought Conditions Worsen Across US 🌞The USDA's weekly drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with 40% of the region affected by drought. In particular, the percentage of US corn areas impacted by drought rose by 11%, while soybean areas saw a 10% increase in drought conditions. The High Plains also experienced drought expansion, notably in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. 🌾💧Corn Export Sales Fall Short 📉US corn export sales were disappointing last week, coming in at 794,700mt (31 million bushels), down 45% from the previous week. This is the lowest sales number in weeks, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Similarly, wheat export sales were also below expectations, while soybean sales saw a slight uptick. These weak sales could impact the overall US agricultural market in the coming weeks. 📦🚫

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:44 Ethanol Stocks SURGE3:41 Wheat Selloff5:11 Trump Tariff Update7:34 USDA Egg Price Plan9:33 Argentina Strike10:50 Podcasts on YouTubeEthanol Stocks Surge 📈US ethanol stocks spiked to near-record levels last week, reaching 27.6 million barrels, a 5.2% increase on the week. This was the highest level seen since the early stages of the COVID lockdown, when driving was at a standstill. While weekly ethanol output dipped slightly, the data raises questions about accuracy, as the EIA has been known for "bad data" in the past. 🛢️💥Wheat Futures Fall Amid Weather Forecasts 🌾Wheat futures have fallen sharply in the past three sessions, with the May25 HRW wheat contract losing more than 23 cents. Much of the U.S. winter wheat country will receive rain, benefiting SRW areas in the Midwest, while HRW areas will see more scattered rainfall. Meanwhile, recent snowfall in Russian winter wheat areas has led to more optimism for their crop prospects. 🌧️❄️Uncertainty Surrounding Tariffs 📊The timing of President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and EU imports remains uncertain. Initially set to take effect on March 4, Trump now says the tariffs may begin on April 2. This has caused confusion, with a White House official suggesting that tariffs would be implemented next week but with no final decision yet. The EU is prepared for retaliatory tariffs. 💥🌍USDA's $1B Plan to Combat Bird Flu 🐔💰The USDA will allocate up to $1 billion to tackle the bird flu outbreak and help reduce egg prices. The funds will focus on improving biosecurity, assisting farmers, and developing vaccines. Over the past four years, egg prices have surged by 237%, reaching $4.95 per dozen. The USDA is also working to eliminate unnecessary regulations on egg producers. 🍳💸Argentina Faces Oilseed Strike 🌱💥Argentina's main oilseed union is threatening a nationwide strike after agribusiness giant Vicentin failed to pay wages. The company is facing legal challenges, and the court ruling may cause Vicentin to default, leading to a halt in operations. This could affect Argentina's already struggling oilseed industry. 🇦🇷⚠️YouTube Dominates the Podcast Market 🎙️More than one billion people tune into podcasts on YouTube every month, surpassing Spotify as the top podcast platform since October 2024. YouTube users streamed over 400 million hours of podcasts on living room devices alone. In response to competition from Spotify, YouTube is offering up to $300,000 to podcasters for video versions of their shows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Massie Hates Ethanol4:34 Corn Holds Support6:15 Russian Wheat Exports8:58 Mex/US Negotiations10:00 Gold Selloff11:00 Stock Market SelloffMassie's Controversial Comment on Ethanol 🛢️U.S. Representative Thomas Massie posted a controversial comment on X, arguing that ethanol subsidies and mandates should be excluded from the Republican reconciliation plan. He claims that using corn for fuel increases food prices. As a farmer, Massie has a long history of advocating for reforms in agriculture, health, and food policy. This sparked a response from the Renewable Fuels Association. 🌽⚡Corn Futures Bounce After Hitting Support 📉🔼Corn futures bounced on Tuesday after hitting technical support near $4.88 per bushel. The May25 contract ended the day near $4.94, marking its third consecutive lower close. Traders are speculating about an increase in U.S. corn acreage ahead of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum data, which will be released tomorrow. The Prospective Plantings report comes out March 31st. 🌾📈Russian Wheat Exports Revised Downward 🌾Sovecon revised Russia’s wheat export forecast down to 42.2mmt, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 42.8mmt. Analysts are concerned about limited snow cover leaving the crop vulnerable to frosts. However, the 2025/2026 export forecast was slightly increased. Russia continues to face challenges with its wheat exports this season. 🌍📉Mexico-U.S. Trade Talks Heat Up 🇲🇽🤝🇺🇸Mexican officials are meeting with U.S. representatives this week to discuss trade policy ahead of next week’s tariff deadline. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated a deal is likely to avoid a trade war, but retaliatory tariffs are on the table if an agreement isn't reached. Canada has also warned of tariffs on U.S. exports. The 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are set to proceed as planned. 🌎💸Gold Prices Drop After Hitting Record High 💰📉Gold prices plunged by 1.4% on Tuesday, following an all-time high reached the previous day. The decline came amid uncertainty over President Trump’s proposed tariffs and weak economic data. Speculators reduced their net long positions in gold, signaling that its upward trend may be stalling. 📉💎Stock Market Struggles 📉The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced their fourth consecutive day of losses on Tuesday, with declines of about 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively. The drop was fueled by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which showed a third consecutive monthly decline. Concerns over President Trump’s tariffs and inflation fears have contributed to the market's struggles. 📉📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Grain Markets Fall Sharply 📉The grain markets saw a significant decline on Monday, with the May25 corn contract losing 8 cents, soybean futures dropping by 10 cents, and wheat futures falling 10-12 cents per bushel. The selloff is likely linked to a shift in Argentina's weather, as key corn and soybean areas saw beneficial rainfall, with more forecasted across the country. 🌽🌧️China's Pork Consumption Stalls 🐖China's pork consumption has slowed due to oversupply and economic struggles, which has led to a surplus and suppressed prices. The government is considering overseeing hog slaughter and regulating production capacity, which could impact global soybean prices, as China is the largest importer of soybeans for livestock feed. 🐷📉Brazil's Soybean Forecast Lowered 🌾AgRural reduced its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt due to dry conditions in the southern region. While soybean harvest progress is on track, Brazil's second corn crop planting remains behind last year's pace, with only 64% planted as of last Thursday. 🇧🇷🌱Tariffs on Canada and Mexico to Proceed 🇲🇽🇨🇦President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will move forward, despite some uncertainty surrounding the details. The tariffs are aimed at securing stronger borders, and Trump has also warned of additional tariffs on steel and aluminum in March. ⚒️💵Mexico Considers Tariffs on China 🇲🇽🇨🇳Mexico is weighing the possibility of implementing tariffs on China while working to avoid the 25% tariff threat from the US. This comes amid ongoing negotiations on stronger action against migrants and fentanyl, which could trigger tariffs in March. 💣🔻US Corn Shipments Decline 📉US corn shipments declined last week, with only 1.1mmt (45mil bushels) inspected for export, down 30% from the previous week. Soybean shipments showed a slight increase, but wheat shipments were also lower than expected, down 22% from last year. 🚜📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Corn Futures Correct Lower 📉CME Group corn futures saw a correction lower after reaching $5.04 last week, trading below $4.90 overnight. The strong rally may have made a correction overdue. Forecasts of rainfall in Argentina's corn country and discussions of increased US corn acreage have added selling pressure ahead of USDA's Ag Outlook Forum data later this week. 🌽🌧️Brazil Soybean Harvest Progressing 🌱Brazil's soybean harvest continues to mirror last year's pace, with 37.6% of the crop harvested compared to 38% last year. Conab forecasts Brazil's crop at 166 MMT, while the USDA estimates 169 MMT. Dry conditions are expected in some regions over the next two weeks, though rainfall in Argentina may ease row crop weakness. 🇧🇷🌾Funds Increase Net-Long Position 💼CFTC data shows "The Funds" increased their net-long position in corn and wheat markets last week. Large money managers bought 33k corn contracts, bringing the net long to 360k contracts—the second largest since April 2022. Wheat contracts also saw increased buying, while soybean contracts experienced net selling. 💰📊US Corn Export Sales Decline 🌍US corn export sales dropped last week to 1.5mmt (67mil bushels), down 12% from the previous week. However, sales remain strong, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales also saw a decline, while wheat sales remained robust, rising 31% from the prior 4-week average. 🚜🌽Stock Market Tumbles 📉The stock market fell sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 down by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq declining by 2.2%. The losses came amid concerns of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Disappointing economic data and consumer inflation expectations fueled the declines. 📊💥Cattle on Feed Report Neutral to Slightly Bullish 🐄The February 1st Cattle on Feed report showed 11.7 million head on feed, a slight decrease from pre-report estimates and 1% lower than last year. January placements were lower than expected, which may be viewed as slightly bullish by the market. The report suggests tighter cattle numbers for the coming months. 🐄📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Potential US-China Trade Deal 🌐Despite rising tensions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of a new trade deal with China. This follows his announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, oil, machinery, and vehicles. Although China failed to meet its Phase One commitments, Trump remains optimistic about renegotiating terms. 🤝📉Corn Futures Near $5 💰The Mar25 corn contract hovers near the $5 mark as option expiration approaches. A large amount of open interest at this strike price may influence market behavior today. Additionally, the Mar25-May25 spread reached record-wide levels, hinting at volatility ahead. 🌽💥Concerns Over Canadian Tariffs and Fertilizer Costs 💸Nutrien warns that President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could raise U.S. farmers' fertilizer costs, particularly for potash, which is mostly sourced from Canada. The price increase could exceed $100 per ton, affecting farmers after the spring planting season. 🌱⚠️USDA Releases Frozen Funds 💵The USDA is releasing $20 million in funds for approved contracts under programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program. This follows a review prompted by President Trump's executive order freezing funding. More funds are expected to be released soon. 💼🔓Gold Prices Surge to Record High 🏆Gold prices reached a new high of $2,954.69 per ounce, driven by fears of a global trade war amid President Trump's tariff plans. Some analysts predict gold could exceed $3,000, though a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal might limit further price increases. 🛑💰Drought Conditions Improving Slightly 🌾The USDA’s drought monitor shows slight improvements in drought conditions across the Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. However, challenges remain in the High Plains and some areas of the Midwest. 🌧️🌾US Ethanol Production Holds Steady 🔋Ethanol production was stable last week, with output holding steady compared to last year. Ethanol stocks saw a 2% increase, and gasoline demand showed a slight uptick year-over-year, despite a weekly dip in demand. ⛽📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Warm Temperatures in Argentina 🌡️Argentina's key farming areas are set to experience temperatures as high as 95°F in the coming days. While the heat could stress crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecasts beneficial rainfall early next week, with some areas receiving up to an inch of rain. The soybean crop is estimated at 49.6mmt, and the corn crop at 49mmt. 🌱🌞Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Reduced 🌾Agroconsult has revised Brazil's soybean crop estimate to 171.3mmt, down from 172.4mmt in January, mainly due to drought in southern Brazil. However, strong crops in other areas, like Mato Grosso, are expected to offset the losses. Despite the cut, Brazil's soybean crop is still expected to be 10% larger than last season. 🇧🇷🌾Tensions Between Trump and Zelensky ⚡Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump recently labeled Zelensky a dictator and blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia. Zelensky rejected the claims, calling Trump’s statements Russian propaganda. Meanwhile, Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages. ⚔️⚡USDA Mistakenly Fired Bird Flu Response Workers 🦠The USDA mistakenly laid off several employees working on the bird flu response, including veterinarians and health technicians. These staff members are now being rehired to continue their critical work. The bird flu outbreak has devastated flocks, causing egg prices to hit a record high. 🥚💸Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Approach on Rates 💵The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates steady for now, awaiting further signs of inflation improvement. While one rate cut is expected this year, concerns remain over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The current benchmark rate sits at 4.25%-4.5%. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Rollins Confirmed2:05 DOGE and USDA3:53 Corn and Wheat Rally5:24 Black Sea Tensions8:28 Year-Round E15?10:00 The Funds11:06 Brazil Update12:26 US Corn is CompetitiveBrooke Rollins Confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture 🌾Brooke Rollins was confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture with a 72-28 vote. She plans to speed up disaster farm aid and address animal diseases. Rollins emphasized the importance of fairness in agriculture and the USDA's efforts to reduce costs, fraud, and waste. Thousands of probationary employees were fired last week as part of the USDA's efforts to improve efficiency. 🚜Corn & Wheat Futures Soar 🌽🌾Corn and wheat futures reached multi-month highs on Friday, with the Mar25 corn contract peaking just below $5.00 per bushel. HRW wheat also posted its highest trade since June, boosted by Black Sea concerns, weather worries in the US and Russia, and short-covering. Soybean futures closed higher but have trended lower since earlier this month. 📉Ukraine and Europe Concerned About Exclusion from Peace Talks 🇺🇦Ukraine and European officials are worried about being excluded from US-Russia peace talks. US officials are meeting with Russian leaders to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. While President Trump has mentioned including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the talks, the situation remains uncertain. A recent drone attack on Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant has added to tensions. ⚔️E15 Sales Legislation Reintroduced 🛢️Bipartisan legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 fuel was reintroduced in the House and Senate. The measure aims to streamline regulations and remove restrictions on E15 availability. The American Petroleum Institute supports the legislation, but new demand could be offset by exports. E15 fuel requires new infrastructure at gas stations. ⛽Funds Trim Positions in Corn & Soybeans 💹Large money managers trimmed their net-long positions in both the corn and soybean markets last week. Corn saw a reduction of 35k contracts, while soybean contracts saw a cut of 31k. The funds were net buyers of SRW wheat on the week. 📊Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱Brazil's soybean harvest continues to lag behind last year’s pace, with only 23% of the crop harvested so far, compared to 32% last year. The delay in harvest has affected the planting of Brazil's second corn crop, with some areas experiencing hot and dry weather. 🌾US Corn Flash Sale 🚚US exporters sold 100,000mt of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales for this marketing year are the second highest in the past decade, and US corn is expected to remain competitive on the global market through at least June. 🌍

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Proposal 💸President Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs aimed at eliminating trade imbalances, with tailored tariffs for each country to spark new trade negotiations. These tariffs, designed to offset the projected $1.9 trillion budget deficit, have raised concerns about potential retaliation and inflation. Critics worry that they could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers, while Trump believes they will lead to fairer trade deals in the long run. ⚖️Corn Futures Hold Strong 🌽Corn futures traded near their recent highs, with the Mar25 contract peaking in the $4.90s but still unable to break the $5 mark. The market shrugged off neutral supply/demand data from USDA on Tuesday. Speculators estimate that large money managers ("the funds") were net long around 350k contracts at Thursday’s close. 📉Brazil’s Corn Production Outlook 📈Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for the nation’s corn production by 2.1%, now pegging it at 122mmt. However, corn planting is lagging behind last year’s pace, with only 5.3% of the crop planted so far. The agency also slightly reduced its soybean crop estimate due to dry conditions affecting the southern regions. 🌾John Deere Faces Challenges 🚜John Deere reported a 35% drop in first-quarter revenue, missing analysts' expectations. The company warned that President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum could further harm profitability, as the price of industrial metals rises. Deere expects a decline in sales of large tractors and combines this year. 📉Strong US Corn & Wheat Export Sales 🌍US corn and wheat export sales showed strong numbers last week. Corn sales were up 12% compared to the previous week, with Japan as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were also strong, up 30%, with Mexico as the top buyer. Soybean sales, however, were disappointing, falling 52% from the previous week. 🌾Drought Conditions in the US 🌞Drought conditions across the Corn Belt remained mostly unchanged, with some expansion in central Missouri to west-central Ohio. Currently, 32% of the region is experiencing some level of drought, compared to 56% three months ago. The High Plains also saw some worsening conditions, particularly in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. 🌾Wholesale Prices Rise Unexpectedly 📊US wholesale prices rose 3.5% in January, higher than the expected 3.2% increase. The rise was driven by higher food and energy costs, which has diminished expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some traders now expect no rate cuts at all in 2024 due to the economic impact of tariffs. 💵

Today is THURSDAY! We all make mistakes!Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Soybean Futures Drop 🚜📉Soybean futures fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Mar25 contract losing nearly 16 cents per bushel, hitting its lowest close since January 16th. Reports of large yields in Brazil, rainfall in Argentina, and a bearish global supply-demand situation have been weighing on prices. Analysts believe that large money managers were net sellers but likely remain net long. 📊Argentina's Rain Brings Relief 🌧️Heavy rains in key corn and soybean areas of Argentina on Wednesday brought much-needed moisture to drought-affected regions. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that the rains reached areas that had missed previous precipitation, helping crops recover. USDA has lowered its projection for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops due to the dry conditions. 🌱Trump and Putin Discuss Ukraine Conflict ☎️President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed efforts to end the Ukraine war. The move could mark a significant shift in US policy. While some believe an end to the war would be bearish for wheat, the ongoing conflict has not supported prices for the past two years. 🌍Trump Approves SAF Plant Expansion 🌱The Trump administration has approved a loan for the expansion of a biofuel plant in Montana. This expansion is aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance, aligning with Trump's goals despite concerns within the biofuel industry. 🔋Inflation Higher Than Expected 💸January's consumer inflation was hotter than anticipated, with a 3.0% rise compared to last year. Housing costs continue to drive inflation, with food and energy also showing increases. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the key benchmark rate steady in March. 📉Ethanol Production Declines 📉US ethanol production fell last week, marking a -2.7% decline from the prior week and a modest drop from the previous year. With rising corn prices, ethanol production margins have trended lower, and the market is currently seeing negative margins. 🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Corn and Soybean Numbers3:01 Global Corn Numbers in Question?7:01 Argentina Rains8:31 Mexico Tariff Talk9:27 The FedUSDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Estimates Unchanged 🌽USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged on Tuesday, causing the markets to dip. Many traders were hoping for increased demand projections for corn. Minor adjustments were made to the wheat balance sheet, with a 4 million bushel increase in demand. 📉USDA Lowers Argentina's Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates 🌾USDA has reduced its estimates for Argentina's corn and soybean crops due to hot and dry weather conditions. The corn crop is now projected at 50mmt, and soybeans at 49mmt. Recent rainfall helped but wasn't enough to fully recover the damage. 🌧️Rain Brings Relief to Argentina's Crops 🌦️Rainfall in Argentina this week has provided crucial moisture for the corn and soybean crops, which were struggling in the heat. With temperatures hitting around 104°F on Monday, the rain was a welcome relief, though more is needed for long-term recovery. ☔Mexico Criticizes US Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚖️Mexico is set to discuss President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with the U.S. The tariffs are slated to take effect on March 12. Mexico imports more steel and aluminum from the U.S. than it exports, making these tariffs potentially harmful to both economies. 🇲🇽🔨Federal Reserve Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts 💵Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the economy is stable and inflation still needs to cool, so there’s no rush to cut interest rates. The trade expects only two rate cuts this year, with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.USDA Report Due Today 📊USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report will be released today at 11am CST, with slight reductions expected in US corn and soybean ending stocks. Global estimates for corn and soybeans, as well as Brazil and Argentina crop forecasts, are also anticipated to be adjusted. This is the old crop report; the first official 25/26 balance sheets will come in May. 🌾📉Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱Brazil's soybean harvest is behind last year’s pace, with only 15% of the crop harvested compared to 23% last year. The delay could affect the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, with planting in the south-central region at only 20%. 🚜Brazil’s Inflation Hits 6% 📈Brazil’s inflation forecast for the coming year has been revised up to nearly 6%, marking the 18th consecutive upward revision. High inflation is linked to elevated government spending and low unemployment. Analysts predict interest rates may reach 15.25% by June. 💸Russia Cuts Wheat Forecast 🥖Russian consulting group IKAR lowered its wheat production and export estimates due to freezing temperatures. Wheat exports are projected at 43mmt, down from a previous forecast of 43.5mmt. The decline reflects adverse weather and low stock levels. 🌾❄️Trump’s Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚒️President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting all U.S. trading partners. These tariffs will impact various sectors, including automobiles and construction. Trump cites trade deficits and revenue generation as reasons for the move. 🇺🇸🔨USDA Flash Sale of Corn 🌽US exporters sold 365,000mt (14mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings accumulated corn sales up by 28% compared to last year. 🌽🇲🇽Record Number of H-2A Visas for South African Workers 🌍The U.S. issued a record number of H-2A visas to South African farm workers last year, with 15,159 permits granted. This marks a 19% increase from the previous year. Mexico remains the top recipient of these visas. 🛂Strong US Corn Shipments 🚢US corn exports were strong last week, with 1.3mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export, up 49% from the previous year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations, rising by 112%. However, soybean shipments were down 22% from the same week last year. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.US Farmer Income Soars With Government Aid 🌾💰US net farm income is projected to rise by 30% this year, reaching $180.1 billion. This increase is largely driven by government disaster payments, which will contribute over 80% of the growth. While total crop receipts are expected to decline by 2.3%, the overall farm income is still higher than the 20-year average. However, it remains 8.9% lower than the record earnings of 2022. 📉Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum 🛠️📈President Trump declared a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect this week. This follows recent announcements of a temporary suspension of universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The steel and aluminum tariffs target major suppliers like Canada, China, and Mexico. 💥USDA Freezes Funding for Conservation Programs 🌱💵The USDA has paused funding for agricultural conservation programs as part of the Trump administration's review of federal spending. Although farmer aid is supposed to remain unaffected, this freeze impacts conservation initiatives tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Legal challenges are ongoing regarding the funding freeze. ⚖️Rain Brings Relief to Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱Rainfall across Argentina last week offered much-needed relief to the soybean crop. The Rosario grains exchange lowered the percentage of early-planted soybeans in poor condition from 50% to 30%. However, some areas in northeastern Argentina still need rain. 🌍Funds Boost Corn Position 🌽📈Large money managers increased their net-long position in corn futures last week. The net long of 362k contracts is the highest since April 2022, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the corn market. The funds were also net buyers of SRW wheat. 🌾USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Coming Soon 📊🌾The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Tuesday, with traders expecting small revisions to US corn and soybean ending stocks, as well as global crop estimates. The official 2025/2026 balance sheets will be released later in May. 🗓️Trump Discusses Peace Talks with Putin 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸President Trump and Vladimir Putin have discussed ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump claims Putin is interested in stopping the conflict, and a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is expected to occur soon to discuss efforts for peace. 🕊️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Wheat Futures Surge Amid Cold Weather Concerns 🌾❄️All three classes of US wheat futures hit multi-month highs overnight, driven by concerns over potential crop damage from cold weather in the Black Sea region. The rise was also fueled by short covering by funds. Corn and soybean futures saw gains as well, supported by President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. China’s mild counter-tariffs, excluding crops, also provided market support. 🌍Greer Defends Trump's Trade Policies 💼📉Trump's nominee for US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, defended the administration’s tariff policies during his confirmation hearing. Greer emphasized the need to reform international trade and expand markets for US farmers, while assessing whether trade agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada were upheld. Some senators expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising costs for farmers. ⚖️Mexico Eases GMO Corn Import Restrictions 🌽🇲🇽Mexico has lifted its restrictions on genetically modified (GMO) corn imports, now limiting restrictions only to human consumption. This move follows a ruling by a USMCA panel that determined that the prior restrictions violated the trade agreement. The decision alleviates concerns among US farmers, as Mexico has been a major importer of US GMO corn for livestock feed and industrial use. 🌱Strong US Corn Export Sales 🌽📦US corn export sales remained robust last week, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (58 million bushels). This was a 9% increase from the previous week and a 32% rise compared to the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. In contrast, soybean sales were weaker, falling by 12% from the previous week, with China being the largest buyer. 🌍US Drought Conditions Update 🌾🌧️USDA’s weekly drought monitor showed scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt, leading to slight improvements in drought conditions in western Missouri, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. However, drought conditions worsened in northwest Indiana, and minimal precipitation was recorded in the High Plains. The drought remains widespread in areas like corn and soybean production. 🌾

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Argentina Rainfall2:00 China WTO Complaint3:06 China Wheat Situation6:15 End to Russia/Ukraine War?7:41 US Dollar and Brazil Currency9:11 Bunge Profits Drop9:59 Ethanol Production10:54 Corn Flash to MexicoRainfall Brings Relief to Argentina's Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱Argentina’s key farming areas received beneficial rainfall this week, especially helping the soybean crop that had been struggling with hot, dry conditions. Some areas saw more than 3 inches of rain. Continued rainfall will be needed to prevent further crop losses. 🌾China Files WTO Complaint Against US Tariffs ⚖️🇨🇳China has filed a complaint with the WTO over Trump's new 10% tariffs, claiming they are based on unfounded allegations. This move follows China's retaliation with its own tariffs on US imports, including energy products and agricultural equipment. 🛢️⚙️China Delays Wheat Imports Due to Ample Domestic Supply 🌾🇨🇳China has postponed imports of 600,000mt of wheat due to an abundant domestic supply from last year’s bumper crop. As domestic wheat prices have dropped, China has redirected imports, potentially adding pressure to the already struggling wheat market. ⏳Trump Administration to Reveal Ukraine Peace Plan 🕊️🇺🇦The Trump administration is expected to unveil a plan to end the war in Ukraine next week. The plan proposes security guarantees for Ukraine and access to its rare earth minerals in exchange for US support. Long-term, Ukraine hopes for NATO membership. 🤝US Dollar Declines Amid Trade War Uncertainty 💵The US dollar fell 0.4% yesterday as concerns about a trade war subsided. The shift came after Trump's tariff delay on Canada and Mexico and weaker-than-expected US job data, which increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts. 📉Bunge's Profits Expected to Decline 📉Bunge anticipates a profit drop to the lowest level since 2019 due to tariff concerns, abundant soybean supplies, and uncertainty over renewable diesel tax credits. The news caused a nearly 7% drop in the company’s shares, but its acquisition of Viterra could help mitigate trade disruptions. 📊US Ethanol Production Surges 🚗🌾US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 9.6% from the previous week and 12% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks also rose, and gasoline demand was up slightly compared to last year. ⛽Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 🌽🇲🇽US exporters sold 330,000mt of corn to Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year, shortly after Mexico agreed to a temporary suspension of tariffs with President Trump. 🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 19k Subs!0:44 Another US/China Trade Deal?3:38 Argentina Crop Problems5:12 Wheat Exports and Russia8:37 Farmer Sentiment Improves9:45 More ADM Problems10:46 Stock Market Bounces11:51 Corn FlashChina May Revive Phase One Trade Deal with Trump 🇨🇳🤝🇺🇸China could be looking to renegotiate the Phase One trade deal from 2020, which aimed to increase purchases of US agricultural products like corn and soybeans. Trump’s recent 10% tariff on Chinese imports has sparked speculation about a new deal, encouraging buying in the markets. China is expected to fulfill its commitment to increase US agricultural purchases if an agreement is reached. 🌽Argentina’s Crop Outlook Turns Bleaker 🌾☀️Drought conditions in Argentina have caused concerns about corn and soybean crop yields. Forecasts have been reduced, with yields potentially falling to 40mmt if dry weather persists. Farmers remain hopeful for rain in the coming weeks, but the extent and timing are uncertain. 🌧️Sovecon Raises Russia’s Wheat Export Outlook 🌾🇷🇺Sovecon has increased its forecast for Russia's wheat exports to 38.3mmt, a 5.2% rise from its previous estimate. Despite a mixed outlook on crop conditions, Russia's winter grains are performing better than expected after tough weather last year. ❄️US Farmer Sentiment Improves Despite Trade Concerns 🚜📈US farmer sentiment improved in January, with the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 141. While concerns about trade wars remain, 42% of farmers believe trade policy will be crucial to their operations over the next five years. 🌱ADM Plans to Cut Costs After Profit Decline 💼📉Agricultural giant ADM is planning to cut costs by $750 million over the next three to five years, including job cuts and selling off underperforming sectors. This comes after a poor fourth-quarter profit and a financial scandal. 💔Stock Market Recovers After Tariff Suspension 📈💵The stock market bounced back, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 increasing 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.4%. The market was buoyed by Trump’s suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a strong performance from Palantir. 📊USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn 🌽🚢US exporters sold 132,000mt of corn to South Korea, continuing strong export sales. Year-to-date corn sales are up 28% compared to last year. 🚜

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump Temporarily Suspends Tariffs on Mexico 🇲🇽💼President Trump agreed to delay the planned 25% tariffs on Mexico for 30 days. 🇺🇸🤝🇲🇽 In return, Mexico committed to sending 10,000 National Guard officers to the border to curb fentanyl and migrant flows. As a result, the Mexican peso strengthened, and corn futures recovered, easing concerns over unshipped US corn sales to Mexico. 🌽💰Trump Suspends Tariffs on Canadian Imports 🇨🇦💼President Trump also delayed tariffs on Canadian imports for 30 days after negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada agreed to spend $1.3 billion to strengthen its border, appoint a fentanyl czar, and list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups. 📈China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs 🇨🇳⚔️China imposed retaliatory tariffs on some US imports, including a 15% tariff on $5 billion worth of energy imports like oil and natural gas. ⛽ A 10% tariff on agricultural equipment was also announced. China refrained from targeting soybeans, but tensions remain. ⚖️Brazilian Real Climbs Against the Dollar 💰📈The Brazilian real rose for the 11th consecutive day, hitting its highest level since November, following Trump’s tariff suspension on Mexico. 📊 It has gained roughly 6% year-to-date, reflecting optimism about Brazil’s economic outlook.Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimates Vary 🌱Brazil’s soybean crop estimates differ among analysts. Celeres raised its forecast to 174mmt due to favorable weather, while StoneX cut its estimate to 170.9mmt due to dry conditions. 🌾 AgRural reported that Brazil's soybean harvest is 9% complete, trailing behind last year's pace. 📉US Corn Shipments Surge 🌽🚢US corn exports remained strong, with 1.3mmt (49 million bushels) inspected for export, up 94% from last year. 🌾 Soybean exports were also up by 37% compared to the prior week. However, wheat shipments declined. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGGTrump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China 💥President Trump followed through on his threat, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on China, effective Tuesday. 🌎 These tariffs are set to stay until illegal immigration and fentanyl influx stop. Additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and pharmaceuticals are expected. Traders seem concerned, as grain markets are trading lower despite the news being telegraphed. 📉Retaliation Plans from Mexico and Canada 🇲🇽🇨🇦Both Canada and Mexico are preparing counter-tariffs. Canada plans 25% tariffs on $106 billion worth of U.S. goods, starting with a quarter on Tuesday. Mexico is considering retaliatory tariffs, though specifics aren't out yet. China, facing a 10% tariff, will take legal action via the WTO. 🌾 Corn and soybean retaliation remains a possibility. 🌽Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn and Soybeans 📊Large money managers increased their net-long position in both corn and soybeans last week, with the net-long corn position hitting a record high. 📈 The funds were net buyers of 22k corn contracts and 7k soybean contracts, signaling optimism about crop potential despite market volatility. 🐂Argentina's Soybean Crop Outlook Deteriorates 🌱Argentina’s soybean crop may be worse than expected, with satellite imagery estimating it at just 45mmt, much lower than earlier projections. 🌧️ Harvesting is behind, and rain forecasted for the coming days is expected to be light, offering little relief. 🌾U.S. Resumes Mexican Cattle Imports Amid Tight Supply 🐄The U.S. is set to resume Mexican cattle imports after a suspension due to the New World screwworm. The tight cattle supply has driven U.S. cattle prices to record highs, further reinforced by USDA's report showing the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump's Tariff Plans Unfold 💥President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting tomorrow, citing issues like fentanyl trafficking and trade deficits. 🌎 The tariffs could increase over time, with China also being targeted. The situation remains fluid, with Trump aides seeking last-minute deals. ⚖️Mexico Prepares Retaliation 🇲🇽Mexico is ready to retaliate with tariffs of up to 20% on U.S. products like produce, cheese, pork, and bourbon. 🍋🧀 The proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports could cost 400,000 U.S. jobs, but for now, Mexican corn purchases remain unaffected. 🌽Brazil's Corn Planting Delays Impact Supply 🌾Delayed planting in Brazil’s top corn-producing state, Mato Grosso, could further restrict global corn supply. 🌧️ Despite the delay, planting progress is expected to pick up this week, with two-thirds of Brazil's second corn crop coming from Mato Grosso and Paraná. 📅US Corn Export Sales Strong 🚢US corn export sales were solid last week, with Japan leading the purchases. 🌍 Soybean sales fell short of expectations, while wheat exports surged. 🌾US Drought Conditions Update 🌵Drought conditions in the Corn Belt remained steady last week, with expansion in western Missouri. 🌾 29% of the region is experiencing drought, with soybeans and spring wheat also impacted. 🌱

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Wednesday's Rally4:00 Mexico Tariff Comments6:41 Lutnick Comments7:56 Russia Wheat Situation9:02 Fed Holds Rates SteadyCorn and Soybean Futures Surge 🌾Corn and soybean futures saw a strong rally on Wednesday, with corn reaching a 7-month high at $4.97. 🌽 The tightening U.S. supply-demand situation continues to support these markets, and wheat futures also gained. 📈Mexico Prepared for Potential Tariffs 🇲🇽Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum isn’t expecting immediate tariffs but has a plan in place if they are implemented. 🚨 A potential trade war could impact the $800 billion annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico, with Mexico being the top buyer of U.S. corn this year. 🌽Trump’s Commerce Secretary on Tariffs 💼President Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary emphasized that tariffs could be avoided if Mexico and Canada curb fentanyl flows. He also discussed potential restrictions on China’s access to technology due to recent AI developments. ⚖️Russian Grain Exports Expected to Decline 🌾Russia’s grain exports are projected to drop significantly this season, falling to 57mmt from 72mmt last year, due to extreme weather conditions. 🌧️ Despite this, 82% of the country's grain crop is reportedly in good condition. 🌾Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady 💵The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, noting that inflation remains high and the job market is solid. President Trump criticized the Fed for allowing inflation to rise and promised to stabilize prices through energy production and better trade deals. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Federal Funding Freeze Temporarily BlockedA federal judge has temporarily blocked President Trump’s funding freeze, which would affect various programs like the Inflation Reduction Act. 🛑 Programs supporting Americans, like Medicare and food stamps, are safe, but the freeze may impact the 45Z tax credit and biofuels. 💰Corn Futures Near Recent HighsCorn futures are just below recent highs, with tightening U.S. supply and strong demand driving prices. 🌽 Farmers in Brazil have planted only a small portion of their second corn crop. 📈Tariff Threats Boost DollarThe U.S. dollar gained strength following renewed tariff threats from President Trump. 💵 Trump is considering tariffs on imports like computer chips and steel, which is pushing the dollar higher. 📊Contaminated Soybean Meal Found in BrazilSand was discovered in Brazilian soybean meal at the Port of Paranaguá, leading to rejections of contaminated shipments. 🌾 This comes as China halts shipments from five Brazilian companies. 🚫Flash Sale of U.S. Corn to South KoreaU.S. corn exports saw a strong flash sale to South Korea, with competitive pricing likely to boost further sales. 🌽 Global demand for U.S. corn remains strong as Brazil’s larger crop is still in the works. 🌍Federal Reserve Expected to Hold RatesThe Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged today, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts. 💵 The decision comes as the Fed continues to assess inflation trends amid Trump’s economic policies. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Tariff Uncertainty ContinuesPresident Trump’s tariff plans remain unclear, with reports suggesting a gradual increase starting at 2.5%. 🌎 Meanwhile, Canada is preparing for potential tariffs on U.S. goods, with some politicians pushing for a united global response. 🇨🇦Brazil’s Soybean Crop UpdateBrazil's soybean crop forecast has been slightly reduced, and the slow harvest is affecting the second corn crop. 🌱Russian Wheat Prices RiseRussian wheat prices rose due to a limited supply. 🌾U.S. Export TrendsU.S. corn exports showed strength last week, but soybean shipments fell short of expectations. 🌽 Soybean shipments were down 26%, while wheat exports exceeded expectations. 📉JBS Enters the Egg MarketJBS has entered the egg market, acquiring a stake in South America's top producer. 🥚U.S. Corn Exports to MexicoThe U.S. exported corn to Mexico, continuing trade despite tariff threats. 🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🟢 Key Updates on US Markets and Global Trade 💥US Tariff Tensions: Colombia and Canada RespondPresident Donald Trump announced the potential for a 25% tariff on Colombian imports after the country refused to allow US planes carrying deported migrants to land. In response, Colombia retaliated with its own tariffs on US goods. However, the situation calmed when Colombia agreed to accept the deportees. Colombia has already accounted for 9.7% of US corn export sales this year. Similar tariff threats are looming for Mexico and Canada, with 308 million bushels of unshipped corn from Mexico on the line.Increased Net-Long Positions in Corn & Soybean MarketsCFTC data from January 21 revealed that funds increased their net-long position in corn to 322k contracts, the highest since May 2022. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 73k contracts of soybeans, marking the largest position since November 2023. This bullish sentiment indicates strong demand for US crops, despite global market challenges.Argentina’s Dry Conditions Impacting Corn & Soybean YieldsArgentina’s crop outlook is being negatively impacted by hot and dry weather. The USDA’s attaché office has lowered its corn forecast to 49 million metric tons (mmt), down from the 51mmt forecast. Corn exports are now expected to total 34mmt, lower than the 36mmt forecasted by USDA. Argentina's soybean crop is also facing yield reduction due to the dry conditions.China Imposes Temporary Soybean Import RestrictionsChina has imposed restrictions on soybean imports from five Brazilian exporters after they failed to meet plant health standards. Although the volume affected is small, the disruption could have broader implications for global soybean trade, particularly in the face of rising tensions with the US. Brazil’s soybean exports to China remain strong, while US soybean sales are being overshadowed.Wheat Crop Damage from Extreme ColdThe US winter wheat crop is suffering from an Arctic blast, with 15% of the crop potentially killed by bitterly cold temperatures. The Commodity Weather Group forecasts a 6.7% reduction in HRW wheat production and a 3.5% decline in SRW wheat.US Export Sales Show Strength Despite Global SetbacksUS corn exports surged to 1.7mmt (65 million bushels), marking a 62% increase compared to the previous week. Soybean exports, however, were weaker at 973,145mt (36 million bushels), a 28% drop from the previous week. Wheat exports also disappointed at 164,800mt (6 million bushels), falling far below expectations. Global Markets React to Tariff Uncertainty & Economic MovesUS stock markets experienced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq down over 4%, driven by fears surrounding President Trump’s tariffs. The US Dollar weakened, while global equity markets, especially in Japan and Mexico, surged as they benefitted from trade optimism.Cattle Report Reveals Bullish Trends in Beef MarketThe Cattle on Feed Report showed a 1% decline in cattle numbers as of January 1 compared to last year. Placements in December were below expectations, signaling a bullish outlook for the beef market. The lighter placements combined with increased marketings suggest reduced cattle numbers, likely leading to tighter beef supplies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱🌽 Argentina’s soybean and corn crop forecasts were cut due to hot and dry weather. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange now predicts the soybean crop will reach 49.6 million metric tons (down 1mmt) and the corn crop 49 million metric tons (also down 1mmt). While some rain is expected in soybean areas soon 🌧️, the intense heat 🌞 will likely limit its benefits.🇦🇷 To help farmers struggling with drought and low crop prices, Argentina is temporarily reducing export taxes on soybeans, soybean products, corn, and wheat 🌾. The tax cuts, fulfilling a campaign promise by President Javier Milei, will start Monday and run through June. Farmers have been facing a rainfall deficit since December, making these changes critical.🛢️ Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s nominee for Agriculture Secretary, promised to support all fuel types, including biofuels. During her hearing, she distanced herself from her previous employer, who opposed biofuels, and committed to following Trump’s energy dominance plan. Rollins also plans to work on 45Z tax credit guidance with Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent. Meanwhile, Trump announced plans to declare a national energy emergency, which may allow year-round sales of E15 fuel.🚜 Rollins also said she might consider direct payments to farmers hurt by tariffs, similar to Trump’s earlier approach. During his first term, the administration spent billions to offset losses from retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans. Some senators criticized this method, saying farmers prefer to sell their products rather than rely on government aid. Rollins also aims to reduce the $42 billion agricultural trade deficit and expand trade markets, though she had no response when asked about the impact of mass deportations on farmworkers.🍶 US ethanol production increased last week, hitting 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.3% from the same time last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25.9 million barrels, a 3.5% increase from the previous week. Gasoline demand, however, dropped by 2.9% compared to the week before.🌾 The USDA’s latest drought report shows little change in conditions. The Corn Belt saw limited rain, with slight improvements in northern Indiana and Illinois. The High Plains remained dry, and cold air from Canada brought temperatures 12–15°F below normal.Drought Impact:🌽 Corn: 42%🌱 Soybeans: 35%🌾 Winter Wheat: 23%🌾 Spring Wheat: 45%🐄 Cattle: 33%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.A bipartisan group of senators has reintroduced the Farm to Fly Act to speed up the production of SAF. The legislation would clarify SAF eligibility in the USDA's current bioenergy programs and expand markets for crops used in SAF production. It would also clarify the federal definition of SAF for USDA purposes and promote more collaboration on aviation biofuels within the USDA. Six senators from the Midwest reintroduced the bill. Agriculture, aviation, and energy groups have all expressed support for the legislation. The reintroduction came one day after President Donald Trump signed an executive order freezing any new federal rules for 60 days, including the 45Z tax credit guidance.USDA reported a flash sale of corn on Wednesday. US exporters sold 136,000mt (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Current marketing year corn sales are the third best in the last ten years.China has suspended Brazilian soybean shipments from five companies. China's General Administration of Customs halted the shipments after finding pesticides and pests during a routine inspection. Authorities did not release the number of cargoes or the volume of soybeans affected by the suspension. However, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the ban is not expected to affect Brazil's overall soybean exports to China. The ministry is expected to provide China with the necessary information to lift the temporary suspensions. The firms included in the ban are some of the largest soybean suppliers to China.Weather forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina have turned slightly wetter. Rains are slated to return to southern Brazil and northern Argentina by Sunday. Southern Brazil, in particular, should see widespread coverage during the next 5 days. The 5-10 day period introduces slightly better rainfall for key Argentina soybean areas. This morning's extended GFS model, however, is again drier for much of Argentina's soybean country. Despite the rain, parts of Argentina, including Buenos Aires, may remain drier than normal.President Donald Trump is pressuring Russia to negotiate an end to the war with Ukraine. On Wednesday, Trump said that Russia needs to make a deal to end the war, or the US will impose tariffs, higher taxes, and sanctions on Russian imports. The same would apply to other countries providing financial support to Russia. It's unclear which specific Russian goods would be targeted, but Russia's main oil producers could be included. Tariffs, however, won't be overly impactful given that the US only imported about $4.6 billion worth of Russian goods in 2023, accounting for only 0.2% of total imports.President Donald Trump's nominee for Agriculture Secretary previously opposed ethanol and farm subsidies. Brooke Rollins served as president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation from 2003 to 2018. During that time, the organization claimed that government support for ethanol led to an increase in emissions and a rise in food and fuel prices. In 2016, while Rollins remained in her position with the nonprofit, the group advocated for the elimination of farm subsidies. Despite Rollins' controversial history on policies affecting farmers, more than 400 state and national agricultural groups endorsed her to lead the USDA.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Rumors and China3:27 Corn/Soybean Acreage Estimates6:47 China Tariffs on Feb 1st?8:24 South America Update10:25 Strong Corn Shipments🟢 US Corn Market Shows Positive Signs Amid China Rumors & Export Surge 🌽There were rumors on Tuesday regarding potential Chinese purchases of US corn, following a Monday announcement from the Chinese government indicating plans to increase the scale of corn purchases and expand grain storage. Despite China’s imports of US corn being near zero this year, the possibility of increased demand has positively impacted the corn market, with spot-month corn futures reaching their best levels since October 2023. 📈🌾📊 S&P Global Adjusts US Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates 🌱S&P Global Commodity Insights has increased its forecast for US corn acreage to 93.5 million acres, a 700,000-acre increase from its previous estimate. This is a 2.9 million-acre increase compared to 2024. However, soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 700,000 acres, with the forecast now at 83.3 million acres. This aligns with USDA projections of 82.9 million acres for corn and 86.1 million acres for soybeans. 🌽🚨 Trump Considers Tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada 💼President Donald Trump is weighing a 10% tariff on China as early as February 1, citing China’s role in the fentanyl trade. Trump is also considering a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with the aim of curbing illegal immigration and addressing trade concerns. These potential tariffs come on the heels of earlier proposals for a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Traders are reacting to these ongoing developments, as tariffs could impact global trade and affect US exports. 💥🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Outlook Raised 🚜The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) has raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.7 million metric tons (mmt), up from 168.7mmt. Exports are expected to reach 106.1mmt, a 2.6mmt increase from previous estimates. Soybean crush is also expected to slightly rise to 57.1mmt. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Brazil’s crop at 169mmt, while Brazil’s crop agency Conab estimates 166.3mmt. 🌱🌍📦 US Corn Exports Surpass Expectations 📈US corn exports exceeded expectations last week, with 1.5mmt (61 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending January 16. This marked a 6.9% increase compared to the prior week and a 106% increase compared to the same week in 2023. Meanwhile, soybean shipments were disappointing, falling to 973,145mt (36 million bushels), 28% lower than the previous week and 18% lower than last year. Wheat shipments also fell short, down 13% from the prior week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Argy Rains Disappoint2:11 Slow Brazil Harvest Start4:15 Tariff Update7:41 The Funds10:06 Soy Exports to China Decline11:36 Bitcoin and Trump Meme Coin🌧️ Weather Woes Continue for Argentina and Brazil 🌾While Argentina and southern Brazil received some rain over the weekend, soybean crops are still struggling with dryness in key areas. Argentina’s central soybean regions received up to 1" of rain, but much of the problem areas remained dry. Forecasts indicate that rainfall will stay scarce in the next 5 days, though better chances are expected later, based on the Euro model.In Brazil, the soybean harvest is facing its slowest pace in four years, with just 1.7% of the crop harvested as of last week, far behind 6% last year. Excessive rain in Mato Grosso has hindered progress, making this the slowest start to the harvest since the 2010/2011 season. This has also delayed planting for Brazil's second corn crop, with planting at just 0.3%, far below last year's 4.9%.💼 Trump Delays Immediate Tariff Action 🚨President Donald Trump has delayed the immediate implementation of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, opting instead for a review of trade policies with China, Canada, and Mexico. The main focus is on ensuring that trade deals such as the USMCA and the Phase One trade deal with China are being adhered to. This delay offers some relief to those concerned about immediate tariff impacts, though Trump is still considering 25% tariffs by February 1st on goods from these countries.📈 Fund Positioning Shows Optimism in Corn & Soybean Markets 🌽"The Funds" have significantly increased their net-long positions in corn and soybean markets. For the week ending January 14, large money managers were net buyers of 48k corn contracts, bringing their total long position to 292k contracts, the largest since May 2022. Soybean markets also saw substantial buying, with 73k contracts purchased, making this the largest net long position in soybeans since November 2023. The funds were also net sellers of 5k contracts of SRW wheat, signaling more focus on corn and soybeans.🇨🇳 US & Brazil Soybean Exports Diverge 📉US soybean exports to China declined by 5.7% in 2024, reaching 22.1mmt, while Brazilian exports surged by 6.7% to 74.7mmt. As Brazil’s market share in China increased to 71%, the US share dropped to 21%. This shift reflects growing competition between the two countries. Argentina’s soybean exports to China also jumped, more than doubling to 4.1mmt. 🌍💰 Bitcoin Reaches New Heights Before Inauguration 🪙Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000 early Monday, as President Donald Trump's administration is expected to create a pro-crypto regulatory environment. This surge in Bitcoin prices was fueled by anticipation of Trump’s potential crypto advisory council and the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📉 US Farmer Selling Increases Amid Economic Pressures 🚜According to Reuters, US farmers have increased their selling of corn and soybeans this week, following the USDA's report that reduced the 2024 corn and soybean production estimates. Despite the recent rally in grain markets, farmers continue to face low profits and rising input costs. Farm income has fallen by nearly 23% since 2022, raising concerns about the year ahead.🌱 Soybean Futures Fall Despite Tighter US Supply 🛑Soybean futures dropped sharply on Thursday, with the Mar25 contract losing 25 cents per bushel 🌾. While the US supply and demand situation has tightened, global soybean supply remains burdensome, and recent improvements in the weather forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina may have triggered the selling. The global market's supply concerns persist, but farmers and traders alike will be watching the weather patterns closely as these two key regions experience different growing conditions 📉.🌍 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Slightly Raised 📈Agroconsult has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 172.4mmt, a small increase from its previous estimate of 172.2mmt 🌱. This increase is attributed to ideal weather and favorable planting conditions in most areas of Brazil. However, excessive rainfall in central Brazil and dry conditions in southern Brazil could affect harvest and yields. Despite these concerns, Brazil’s overall soybean production is set to remain strong, with record acreage expected 🌾.💼 Trump’s Treasury Nominee Defends Tariff Plans 💰During his confirmation hearing, Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, defended the tariff proposals, suggesting they would be implemented gradually over the coming months 📊. Bessent emphasized that tariffs would help address unfair trade practices and geopolitical issues, despite concerns from some senators about their potential impact on inflation.US export sales showed improvements in corn and wheat but remained weak for soybeans. 🌾Corn sales reached 1mmt (40 million bushels), surpassing expectations, with Japan as the largest buyer 🇯🇵.Soybean sales were 569,100mt (21 million bushels), slightly up from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average . China was the largest buyer 🇨🇳.Wheat sales reached 513,400mt (19 million bushels), exceeding expectations, with South Korea as the largest buyer 🇰🇷.🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Shows Limited Improvement 🚨The USDA released its weekly drought monitor, showing minimal precipitation across the Corn Belt and High Plains. However, drought conditions improved slightly in eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, and northeast Missouri, while worsening in southwest Nebraska 🌾🌧️. Here’s a breakdown of the areas still affected:Corn: 42% affected 🌽Soybeans: 34% affected 🌱Winter Wheat: 22% affected 🌾Spring Wheat: 33% affected 🌾Cattle: 32% affected 🐄📦 Flash Sales of Soybeans and Corn 📊In another round of flash sales, US exporters sold:132,000mt of soybeans (5 million bushels) to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.135,000mt of corn (5 million bushels) to Taiwan 🇹🇼 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Subscribe!1:00 Canada Tariff Threat3:45 45Z / CSA5:42 NOPA Crush8:13 Argentina Rainfall9:58 Ethanol Production10:59 Consumer InflationCanada's Potential Tariffs on US ProductsCanada is preparing to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of US products if President-elect Donald Trump moves forward with his planned tariffs on Canadian goods. The list of products targeted by Canadian tariffs hasn’t been disclosed yet, but they could affect almost a third of US exports to Canada. USDA Issues New Rule for Climate-Smart BiofuelsThe USDA has announced an interim rule regarding climate-smart practices for biofuel feedstocks. This includes corn, soy, and sorghum and provides farmers with more flexibility to adopt practices like no-till, cover crops, and nutrient management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This rule will tie into the 45Z tax credit guidance, potentially unlocking new market opportunities for farmers producing biofuel feedstocks. US Soybean Crush Hits Record HighThe National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its December crush data, showing that US soybean crush hit an all-time high of 206.6 million bushels. This is a 6.9% increase from November and a 5.8% increase compared to last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.2 billion pounds, although they were slightly below trade estimates. This marks a strong 2024 for soybean production and oil availability.Argentina's Crop Outlook RevisedThe Rosario Grains Exchange has lowered its corn and soybean crop estimates for Argentina. Argentina's corn crop is now projected at 48mmt, down from previous estimates of 50-51mmt due to dry conditions. Similarly, soybean output is expected to fall, as droughts have reduced yields. The revised forecasts suggest that rainfall in both Argentina and southern Brazil could provide some relief in the coming weeks.US Ethanol Production Remains StrongUS ethanol production fell slightly by 1% last week to 1.1 million barrels per day but remains up 3.1% compared to last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25 million barrels, marking a 3.6% week-over-week increase. Implied gasoline demand showed a slight dip, down 1.8% from the previous week, but remained steady year-over-year. Keep an eye on ethanol production as it continues to play a key role in biofuel output and agriculture!Inflation Indicator Declines for First Time Since JulyCore CPI (excluding food and gas) rose by 0.2% in December, showing the first decline since July. The annual increase is now 3.2%, down slightly from 3.3% in November. Headline CPI rose to 2.9%, staying in line with expectations. Experts are concerned that Trump’s economic policies could cause inflation to resurge.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Reduced Tariff Threat and US Dollar3:43 Differing Tariff Opinions6:46 Grain Marketing WARNING7:37 CONAB Report9:52 FTC and John Deere10:57 Wholesale Inflation12:24 Flash Sale💰 President-Elect Donald Trump's Tariff Proposal: Gradual Increase 🌐President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is deliberating a gradual increase in tariffs starting next year. This approach aims to increase negotiating power while avoiding inflation spikes. The announcement on Tuesday triggered a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields 📉. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.75% 📊.🇨🇳 China's Soybean Trade: Is There a Tariff Threat? 🌾Analysts are divided on whether China will impose tariffs on US soybeans. While trade between the US and China remains crucial for both countries, China’s domestic production of soybeans is growing, which could reduce its reliance on US imports 🌱. However, US farmers support Trump’s policies, and he is unlikely to harm their interests. Analysts suggest that a phase two trade deal could address these concerns and ensure continued soybean trade.🌾 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Projected to Reach Record High 🌎Brazil's crop agency, Conab, forecasts a record Brazilian soybean crop of 166.3 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 12.6% from last season 📈. This is due to favorable growing conditions and a projected rise in soybean acreage. Soybean exports are expected to hit 105mmt, a 6.5% increase from last year 🚢. However, Brazil's corn production estimate was slightly lowered to 119.6mmt due to drier conditions in southern Brazil 🌽. See Brazil and Argentina weather maps below for more on the agricultural impact 🌧️.⚖️ FTC vs. John Deere: Lawsuit in the Works? 🚜The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is considering a lawsuit against John Deere for restricting repair access 🛠️. The FTC claims Deere's practices violate competition laws by denying farmers and independent repair shops access to necessary diagnostic tools. This has led to an increase in maintenance costs for agricultural equipment by 48% in the past four years 🚜. The FTC has been investigating Deere since 2021, and a decision on filing the lawsuit is expected soon 🏛️.📉 Wholesale Inflation Tamer Than Expected 📊Wholesale inflation in December came in below expectations, with the PPI rising by 3.3% compared to last year (up from 3% in November). The figure was still lower than the anticipated 3.5% increase 📉. Monthly prices rose by just 0.2%, well below the expected 0.4% 📈. 🌱 Flash Soybean Sale 🚢The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Tuesday 🌾. US exporters sold 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Big Row Crop Rally3:04 The Funds5:12 Canada Tariffs?8:07 China Soybean Imports9:42 South America Update11:34 Grain ShipmentsCorn and Soybean Futures Rally AgainCorn and soybean futures continued their upward trend on Monday, with Mar25 corn contracts gaining 6 cents per bushel, marking its best close since June 18th. The rally from the August low to Monday’s high saw a 72-cent increase, or about 18%. Meanwhile, Mar25 soybean contracts gained nearly 28 cents per bushel, achieving its best close since October 8th. From December’s low to the overnight high, the contract rose by $1.10, or approximately 12%. These market movements reflect a tightening of US supply and demand, driven by bullish data from USDA last Friday.Trump’s Tariffs on Canada to Include OilIn a major development, President-elect Donald Trump is planning to include oil in his tariffs on Canadian imports. The premier of Alberta confirmed the news after meeting with Trump over the weekend. Canada is expected to retaliate with its own tariffs, potentially restricting energy exports to the US. Alberta supplies nearly 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, which could have significant implications for energy prices.China’s Record Soybean Imports in 2024China has imported a record 105.03 million metric tons (mmt) of US soybeans in 2024, marking an increase of 6.5% from 2023. This surge in imports is attributed to concerns about potential US-China trade tensions under Trump’s administration, along with favorable crush margins and declining soybean prices. Despite the surge, Chinese traders have diversified their suppliers and are preparing for possible disruptions due to potential trade wars. US soybean sales remain strong but may face challenges from oversupply and weak margins.Soybean Harvest Disrupted in Mato GrossoRainfall is impacting soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state. According to AgRural, the harvest pace is the slowest in seven years, although the state’s soybean potential remains excellent with no quality issues reported. However, the delay could impact the second corn crop planting window, a concern for Brazil’s corn producers. Meanwhile, southern Brazil continues to experience hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall, affecting soybean crops.US Export Sales Exceed ExpectationsUS export sales were strong last week. The USDA reported that 1.4mmt (57 million bushels) of corn were inspected for export, up 64% from the previous week and 51% higher than the same week last year. Soybean shipments also increased to 1.4mmt (50 million bushels), up 4.2% from the prior week and 5.5% from last year. Wheat shipments were reported at 288,895mt (11 million bushels), though slightly lower than the previous week. Additionally, US exporters sold 198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Surge Following USDA’s Bullish Report 📊Corn futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Mar25 contract gaining more than 14 cents per bushel and posting its best trade since June 20th 📈. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US corn crop by a whopping 267 million bushels, and USDA’s estimate of last year's national corn yield was cut by 3.8 bushels per acre, marking the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. As a result, 2024/2025 US corn ending stocks were revised down to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.738 billion previously 📉. See the ending stocks to use ratio charts below.🌱 Soybean Futures Follow Corn’s Lead 📈Soybean futures also rallied on Friday, with the Mar25 contract gaining over 26 cents per bushel, marking its best trade in nearly two months 📅. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US soybean crop by 95 million bushels. The USDA’s estimate of last year's US national soybean yield was cut by 1 bushel per acre, the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. Additionally, 2024/2025 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 380 million bushels from 470 million previously 🌾.🛢️ Crude Oil Prices Surge Following U.S. Sanctions 🇷🇺Crude oil prices surged on Friday, with WTI crude rising 3.6% to settle at $76.57 per barrel, its highest level since October 🔝. The increase was driven by U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil companies and more than 180 tankers, along with Russian energy officials and executives. These sanctions are expected to push Indian and Chinese refiners to turn to the Middle East for additional oil supplies 🌍.📊 US Export Sales Underperform 📉US export sales were disappointing last week. Net corn sales dropped to a marketing year low of 445,000mt (18 million bushels), down 43% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average 📉. Net soybean sales also fell to a marketing year low, with a total of 288,700mt (11 million bushels), down 40% from the previous week and 72% from the 4-week average 🚫. Net wheat sales also hit a marketing year low, coming in at 111,300mt (4 million bushels), down 21% from the prior week and 70% from the prior 4-week average 📊. See charts below.🍳 Biden Administration Releases 45Z Tax Credit Guidance 🍴The Biden administration released updated 45Z tax credit guidance on Friday 📝. The guidance prohibits the use of used cooking oil imports for biofuel production from qualifying for the tax credit under the GREET model. This led March soybean oil futures to jump 7%, reaching their highest level since June 2023. The updated guidance comes after a surge in cheaper used cooking oil imports from China, which had undercut domestic soybean oil prices 💸. While providing clarity, many US biofuel and agricultural groups criticized the guidance for lacking sufficient details on qualifying criteria 🌿.🌍 Brazil’s Soybean Crop: Conflicting Projections 🌾Brazil’s soybean crop projections remain in flux 📉. On Friday, Patria Agronegocios revised its estimate downward to 167.9mmt, a reduction from its earlier forecast of 170.4mmt. This revision was due to unfavorable weather impacting crop yields in some regions 🌧️. On the other hand, Safras and Mercado raised its forecast to 173.7mmt, an increase from 171.8mmt. Despite concerns about weather, Mato Grosso is expected to offset some production losses.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Biden Administration to Release 45Z Tax Credit Guidance Today 💼The Biden administration plans to release short-term 45Z tax credit guidance today 📆. However, the Trump administration will make the final ruling on the tax credit once he takes office 🏛️. The credit was set to become effective on January 1, but the lack of guidance from the US Treasury has threatened the program’s activation 🛑. Biden's administration believes companies can follow the interim guidance, but any final rule will depend on Trump's decisions 💰. Wintry weather in Washington, DC, and the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter may delay the guidance release ⏳.📊 USDA Monthly Crop Production & WASDE Report Today 📅USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11am CST 🗓️. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released alongside the monthly report 📉. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops 🌽🌱. If realized, this could lead to reduced carryout projections. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% from last year, while soybean stocks are projected to be up 8% and wheat stocks up 10% 🌾. Stay tuned for key updates from the USDA report 📊.🌧️ Argentina’s Crops Need Moisture ☀️Argentina's corn and soybean crops are experiencing stress due to hot and dry weather 🌞. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, rainfall is expected to arrive next week 🌧️, with 2 to 3 inches of rain forecasted for January 16-22 ⏳. About 92% of both soybean and corn crops have been planted, and the much-needed rain will help the crops through their critical stages 🌱. The wheat harvest in Argentina is nearly complete, with an estimated production of 18.6 million metric tons (mmt) 🌾.🌍 La Niña Officially Arrives 🌦️La Niña has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean 🌊, though later and weaker than expected. This weather pattern is usually associated with drier conditions across the southern and western US as well as South America 🌎. La Niña increases the risk of drought in agricultural regions of Argentina and Brazil 🌾. However, the weakness of the pattern suggests the impacts may not be as severe this time ⚖️. La Niña is expected to persist through April, with a 60% chance it will fade between March and May, shifting to ENSO-neutral 🌐.🌧️ Winter Storm Brings Relief to Drought-Stricken Areas 🌀The USDA weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions following a winter storm that moved across the Corn Belt last week ❄️. The storm brought much-needed precipitation to areas like eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, northeast Missouri, and northern and eastern Illinois 🌧️. Significant snowfall also helped improve drought conditions in northeast Kansas 🌨️. Despite these improvements, drought remains a concern in several areas, including corn, soybeans, and spring wheat production 🌽🌾. 🔔 Stay Informed & Subscribe!For more updates on USDA reports, weather forecasts, and global agricultural trends, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and share your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 National Emergency and Tariffs2:57 USDA Preview6:45 Argentina Rains Expected8:01 Brazil Update9:33 Ethanol Production is Strong10:31 Flash Sale📈 US Dollar and Bond Yields Rise Amid Economic Concerns 💵The US dollar and bond yields continued their upward trend on Wednesday 📈. The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 4.73%, its highest level since April, while the dollar index increased 0.28% to 109.00, slightly below last week's two-year high of 109.54 📊. The rise in the dollar and yields followed a CNN report suggesting that Donald Trump might declare a national economic emergency to push forward his broad tariff policies.🌾 USDA's Crop Report and Grain Stocks Release on Friday 📅The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday 📊. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, which could lead to reduced carryout projections if realized 🌽🌱. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% year-on-year, while soybean stocks are forecast to be up about 8% and wheat stocks up about 10% 🌾. 🌧️ Argentina Forecasted to Receive Rainfall 🌦️Argentina is expected to receive substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks 🌧️. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts that Argentina's key farming region will receive 2 to 3 inches of rain in mid-January 🌧️. This comes after dry conditions linked to La Niña have begun to impact crops. Water reserves in major farming areas have been at critical levels following below-normal rainfall in December. The forecasted rainfall will help crops reach February, when rainfall typically resumes 🌱.🌞 Dry Conditions Affecting Soybean Crops in Brazil 🇧🇷Dry conditions are starting to impact soybean crops in southern Brazil 🌞. Parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, have gone 15 to 20 days without significant rainfall 🌾. The state's northwestern region is expected to remain dry for another 12 to 15 days, though the situation is not yet critical 🚨. Meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall by late January, with frequent rains continuing through February, which could improve the crop situation 🌧️. Meanwhile, Central Brazil is forecast to receive heavy rainfall, which may interfere with the early soybean harvest 🌱.⛽ US Ethanol Production Declines Slightly 📉US ethanol production decreased last week for the first time in a month 📉. Weekly output dropped by 1% to 1.1 million barrels per day, though it was still 5.1% higher compared to the same week last year 🌽. Ethanol stocks increased by 2.2% compared to the prior week and were up 2.4% from the same week in 2023 📊. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand was up 3.8% from the previous week but down 5.9% from the same week last year 🚗. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is down slightly compared to last year 📉.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Re-Inflation and Grain Prices4:15 Argentina7:46 Farmer Sentiment9:29 Ethanol Exports Spike11:12 Ag Startup Valuation12:11 Corn FlashStock Market Tumbles Amid Inflation ConcernsThe stock market took a hit on Tuesday with the Dow Jones dropping 0.4%, the S&P 500 declining 1.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 1.9%. The continued resilience of the economy has pushed back expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year. Additionally, concerns are rising that President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could lead to inflationary pressures.USDA Optimistic About Argentina’s Soybean CropUSDA's Argentina office is maintaining a positive outlook for the country’s soybean crop. The crop forecast remains steady at 52 million metric tons (mmt), with an increase in soybean acres and ideal growing conditions contributing to this stable projection. La Niña conditions may pose a risk to yields, but record-high soybean crush of 42 mmt is expected, driven by strong exports and consistent crush rates. US Farmer Sentiment Declines Slightly in DecemberUS farmer sentiment dropped slightly in December, with the Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index falling to 136, a 9-point decline from November. Despite this, the index remains at its highest level since August 2021. The slight dip is attributed to farmers' concerns about farm conditions and the agriculture industry, but they remain optimistic about the future, particularly after the presidential election. The potential for a trade war under Trump's administration is a rising concern, with 48% of farmers now believing a trade war is either likely or very likely, up from 42% in November.US Ethanol Exports Surge in NovemberUS ethanol exports saw a major boost in November, climbing to 187.6 million gallons, a 31% increase from October. 2024 exports are on track to surpass 1.9 billion gallons, which would represent 12% of US ethanol production and set a new record. The surge is largely driven by strong growth in key markets like Canada, India, and the European Union. While exports of dried distillers grains fell 15% in November, they were still 14% higher than the same time last year.Inari Agriculture’s Valuation SoarsInari Agriculture, an agtech startup, has seen its valuation skyrocket in 2024. The company raised $144 million in new funding, increasing its valuation by 32% to $2.17 billion. Inari develops wheat, corn, and soybeans that require less fertilizer, water, and land, providing sustainable solutions for farmers. The additional funding will help Inari expand its innovative solutions and strengthen its position in the agriculture tech space.USDA Reports Flash Sale of CornThe USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Analysts are Bearish Soybeans2:56 Trump Tariff Talk4:25 The Funds7:41 South American Weather9:34 Grain Shipments10:38 Bird FluAnalysts Warn Soybeans Could Fall Below $9 Amid US/China Trade TensionsRabobank analysts warn that soybean prices could drop below $9 per bushel if a new US/China trade war erupts. They believe that China would retaliate with its own tariffs on US grains and oilseeds if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with his aggressive tariff plan. This could give Brazil an even stronger position in the Chinese market, as they would likely benefit from reduced US soybean exports. Trump Denies Softening Stance on TariffsPresident-elect Trump denied claims that he might adopt a softer approach to tariffs. On Monday, Trump dismissed a Washington Post article suggesting that his tariff plan might focus only on sectors critical to national security. This would have been a significant shift from the tariffs he promised during his presidential campaign.Funds Increase Net-Long Position in CornThe Funds have substantially increased their net-long position in corn futures. According to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data, as of Tuesday, December 31, large money managers were net buyers of 58,000 corn contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 29,000 soybean contracts and 12,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week.Weather Relief for Brazil and ArgentinaExtended weather forecasts provide some relief for portions of southern Brazil and northern Argentina, which have been experiencing dry conditions. Both the Euro and GFS models agree that these regions will remain mostly dry through the next 10 days. However, rain chances are expected to return during the 10-16 day period, with some normal rainfall possible between 15-28 days. This has impacted soybean meal futures, which closed lower on Monday and continued trading lower early this morning.US Export Shipments in Line with ExpectationsUS corn shipments were in line with expectations last week, with 847,463 metric tons (33 million bushels) inspected for export. However, this was 6.6% lower compared to the previous week and 22% below the same week last year. Soybean shipments came in at 1.3 million metric tons (47 million bushels), down 22% from the prior week but up 23% compared to last year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations at 412,342 metric tons (15 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week but down 18% from last year.First US Human Fatality from Bird Flu ConfirmedThe US has confirmed its first human fatality from bird flu, a case involving an individual with underlying health conditions over the age of 65 in Louisiana. There have been 61 human bird flu cases nationwide. The majority of cases have occurred among farmworkers in California and Washington who had contact with infected poultry or dairy cows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌞 Argentina's Hot and Dry Weather Impacting Crops 🌱Hot and dry conditions in Argentina are starting to take a toll on the corn and soybean crops 🌾. While both crops experienced ideal growing conditions during spring thanks to abundant rainfall, high temperatures and reduced rainfall at the end of December are now affecting their development ☀️. The Rosario Grains Exchange reported that some areas received only 30% of their average rainfall in December 🌧️. Despite these challenges, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange stated that the crops are still progressing well due to moisture earlier in 2024. However, Argentina is expected to remain hot and dry over the next two weeks, which could further stress crops 🌞.🇨🇳 China Adds US Companies to Export Control List 🔒China has added 28 US companies to its export control list, preventing them from exporting dual-use items (products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) to China 📉. The exact enforcement details and which products will be classified as dual-use remain unclear 🔍. Additionally, China imposed sanctions on 10 defense firms related to military sales to Taiwan 🇹🇼. These sanctions are expected to have little impact as US military companies do not sell arms or related goods to China 💡. These actions are seen as a response to the anticipated tougher US policies against China under President-elect Donald Trump 🤔.💵 US Dollar Index Hits Two-Year High 📈The US dollar index reached its highest level in over two years last week, rising 0.8% against a basket of currencies as the new trading year began 📊. The strength in the dollar is attributed to investor optimism about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as they expect lower taxes and deregulation to boost economic growth, consumer spending, and business investment 💰. However, analysts caution that the US dollar could face a correction, with only two quarter-point rate cuts expected this year and the potential for negative US economic data 📉.📉 US Export Sales Disappoint in Latest Report 🌽US export sales were underwhelming last week, with net corn sales falling below expectations at 777,000 metric tons (31 million bushels) 🌽, a 55% decrease compared to the previous week and 44% below the 4-week average 📊. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week 🇲🇽. Net soybean sales also fell short of expectations, declining to a marketing year low of 484,700 metric tons (18 million bushels) 🌱, a 51% drop from the previous week and 67% lower than the 4-week average 📉. China was the largest soybean buyer 🇨🇳. Net wheat sales also missed expectations, coming in at 140,600 metric tons (5 million bushels) 🌾, down 77% from the previous week and 68% from the 4-week average 📉.⚡ US Renewable Diesel and Biofuel Production Up in October 🔋US renewable diesel and biofuel production increased in October, with renewable diesel producers using 77% of their capacity, the highest since July 🌱. Biodiesel producers utilized 89% of their capacity, marking the highest level since June 2023 🔋. The increase in production is attributed to improved margins, which were boosted by higher tax credit values and stronger demand 🚗.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn and Soybean Futures Close Higher 📈Corn and soybean futures saw strong performances on Thursday, with the Mar25 soybean contract breaking above technical resistance on Tuesday and closing higher again on Thursday 🌱. The Mar25 corn contract also posted its best close since late June 📊. However, anecdotal reports suggest that US farmers continue to sell corn and soybeans into the rally as spreads and basis have weakened 🌽. This indicates a more balanced market despite the price gains 📉.🇧🇷 StoneX Increases Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate 🌾StoneX has raised its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.4 million metric tons (mmt), a 3.1% increase from its previous estimate 🌱. This revision is driven by expected increases in planted acreage and improved yields 🌞. The forecasted crop would be 14.4% larger than last season's, with Brazilian soybean exports expected to rise by nearly 4% this season to 107mmt 🇧🇷. USDA has the crop pegged at 169mmt, while Conab (Brazil's government agency) estimates it at 166.2mmt. Additionally, StoneX also increased its forecast for Brazil’s corn crop to 128.6mmt 🌽.🌞 Dry Weather Threatens Parts of Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🇦🇷Portions of Argentina’s soybean-growing regions are likely to remain dry in the coming weeks 🌞. While areas of Cordoba and San Luis received some rainfall, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires remain mostly dry 🌾. The forecast calls for continued dry conditions in northern Argentina and southern Brazil, which represent a significant portion of the soybean output 🌍. Southern Brazil contributes about 30% of the country's soybean production, while the dry areas in Argentina account for 20-25% of its soybean output 🌱.🐄 Cattle Futures Soar Amid Wintry Weather Forecast ❄️Cattle futures surged on Thursday, reaching life-of-contract highs amid forecasts of wintry weather across the Plains. This rally is driven by a shortage of feeder cattle, as the US beef cowherd has fallen to its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. Resilient consumer demand has also supported cattle prices. However, there are concerns that heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures next week could affect fat cattle performance, as wintry weather last year caused fat cattle weights to decline by 3% 📉.🌧️ USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Precipitation Brings Relief 🌧️The latest USDA drought monitor revealed that much of the Corn Belt received substantial precipitation last week 🌽. Some areas reported rainfall amounts ranging from 200% to 600% above normal 🌧️, leading to improved drought conditions across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois 🌱. Slight improvements were also observed in Wisconsin and Minnesota 🌾. Precipitation was widespread across the High Plains, but rainfall was not significant enough to warrant substantial drought improvement in those areas 🌾.📈 Stock Market Soars in 2024 🚀The S&P 500 had an exceptional year in 2024, gaining 23.3% 📊, marking its second consecutive year with annual gains surpassing 20% 📈. This follows a 24.2% gain in 2023. The Dow Jones rose 12.9% in 2024, while the Nasdaq surged 28.6% 🚀. Several factors contributed to the strong market performance, including the growth of AI technology, Donald Trump's presidential victory, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a full percentage point.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📈 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Futures 🌽The Funds have increased their net-long position in the corn market, according to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data 📊. As of Tuesday, December 24, large money managers were net buyers of 8,000 corn contracts 🌽. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 3,000 soybean contracts and net sellers of 12,000 SRW wheat contracts for the week 🥖. This shift highlights a more bullish outlook for corn amidst broader market dynamics 📈.🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures Rally Before Late Selloff 📉Corn futures rallied yesterday, with the March 2025 corn contract hitting a high of $4.58 per bushel before closing lower 🌽. This was the highest trade since June 25th 📅. The March 2025 soybean contract also rallied but faced trend resistance near $10.04, ultimately closing at $9.92 🌱. While holiday markets tend to be slower, increased farmer selling amid the rally, especially in corn, has played a role in the price action 📉.🌦️ Dry Weather Forecast for Brazil and Argentina 🌾Moisture deficits are expected in some areas of Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks 🌞. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeast Argentina are forecast to receive well-below-normal rainfall 🌧️. In particular, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, key soybean-growing regions in southern Brazil, are expected to see rainfall less than 35% of normal 🌾. Even drier conditions are projected for parts of northeast Argentina, raising concerns about crop development 🌱.🚢 US Corn Shipments Decline, Soybean and Wheat Shipments Rise 📦US corn shipments saw a decline last week, with 878,380 metric tons (35 million bushels) inspected for export, down 23% from the previous week but up 54% from the same week last year 🌽. Soybean shipments were strong at 1.6 million metric tons (58 million bushels), down 12% from the prior week but up 62% compared to the same week last year 🌱. Wheat shipments also increased, reaching 337,685 metric tons (12 million bushels), which was 17% lower than the previous week but 22% higher than last year 🌾.🏭 ADM Faces Shareholder Pressure Amid Investigation 🧐ADM is facing shareholder criticism after the company’s stock has fallen by about 30% this year, marking its largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis 📉. Hartwig Fuchs, an ADM shareholder and former executive, has called for the CEO’s resignation, citing failures to address the company’s declining stock value. ADM disclosed an investigation into its nutrition division’s accounting practices in January, and further errors were found in November. Fuchs is urging the CEO to offer clearer explanations to rebuild investor trust 📊.📦 Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🌱The USDA reported a flash sale of soybean oil on Monday 📦. US exporters sold 23,000 metric tons of soybean oil to India for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇮🇳. Since the beginning of the year, 174,000 metric tons of soybean oil have been sold through flash sales 🌾.🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!For more updates on grain markets, soybean oil sales, and global trade, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and share your thoughts in the comments below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Export Sales2:35 Ethanol Production5:38 Argentina Update / Weather6:57 Brazil Update / Weather8:32 Russia Wheat Problems9:56 US Dollar is StrongUS Corn Exports Surge, Soybean Sales FallUS corn export sales surged last week, surpassing expectations with 1.7 million metric tons (67 million bushels) of corn sold. This was a 46% increase from the previous week and 39% higher than the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week. On the other hand, soybean sales dropped to a marketing year low at 978,400 metric tons (36 million bushels), falling 31% from the previous week and 47% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Wheat sales exceeded expectations with 612,400 metric tons (23 million bushels) sold, a 34% increase from the previous week. Mexico was the largest wheat buyer.US Ethanol Production Continues StrongUS ethanol production remained robust last week, with weekly output of 1.11 million barrels per day, showing a 3.4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 23.07 million barrels, a 2% increase from the prior week. Implied gasoline demand was also up by 1% compared to the previous week and 3% compared to the same week last year. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has risen by 3.5% compared to the same period last year.Argentina’s Corn and Soybean Acreage AdjustmentsThe Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has revised its outlook for Argentina’s corn and soybean acres. Corn acreage is now projected at 16.3 million acres, nearly 5% higher than the previous estimate. However, soybean acreage was reduced by 1.1%, now projected at 45.5 million acres, as farmers shift to more profitable crops.Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate IncreasedThe USDA's Brazil attaché office has raised its Brazil soybean production estimate to 165mmt, citing timely planting and favorable early rainfall. The updated estimate is 2.3% higher than last season’s crop. CONAB, Brazil’s government agency, is forecasting the crop at 166.2 mmt, while the USDA projects 169 mmt.Russia’s Winter Wheat Conditions DeterioratingThe condition of Russia’s winter wheat crops is forecast to worsen in January due to warmer-than-average temperatures and excess precipitation. This has led to weakened sprouts. While crop conditions in southern Russia are expected to be average, soil moisture remains low, posing risks to yields.US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Growth and Tariff ConcernsThe US dollar is on track to post its strongest annual gain in nearly a decade, rising over 7% this year, according to the Bloomberg Spot Index. The dollar's strength is attributed to the robust US economy, which has reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, Trump’s tariff threats have boosted expectations for the dollar’s performance, making it a key focus in global ma

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grain and Oilseed Complex Rally on Thursday 📈The grain and oilseed complex saw a notable rally on Thursday, with the soybean meal market leading the charge, gaining a whopping 4.4% 📊. Soybean futures finished sharply higher, while soybean oil ended marginally lower 🌱. The March 2025 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, posting its best close since June 25th 🌽. Wheat futures saw marginal gains, although they remain stuck in a sideways pattern 📉. This rally reflects strong market dynamics in the broader grain complex.🌞 Argentina’s Dry Weather Forecast 🌾Argentina is set to experience dry weather in the coming weeks 🌞. Rainfall across the country’s soybean areas is expected to be scattered and well below normal, which could negatively impact the soybean crop 🌱. Temperatures are forecasted to trend above average during the same period 🔥. The recent rally in soybean meal prices is likely due to concerns about Argentina’s soybean crop. While the extended forecast suggests a return to normal rainfall, farmers in Argentina typically complete soybean planting during the first half of January 🌾.🇨🇳 China’s Efforts to Boost Cereal Grain Consumption 🌾China is implementing measures to significantly boost cereal grain consumption over the next ten years 📊. As the world’s largest producer of cereal grains, China still relies on corn and wheat imports to feed its 1.4 billion people 🌍. Despite being the second-largest global corn producer, much of China’s corn is used for livestock feed 🐄. To improve grain production and quality, China plans to focus on developing grain varieties suitable for human consumption 🌾. The country also aims to establish stronger international grain standards and build global partnerships 🤝.🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Exports to Decline Significantly 🌾Russian wheat exports are set to decline next season, with Russian consulting group IKAR projecting exports to fall to 41 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2025/2026 season, a 6% decrease from the current season 📉. Wheat exports are expected to decline by 5% this season, although Russia will still remain the world’s leading exporter of wheat 🌍. This reduction is attributed to lower yields in winter crops due to a lack of fall moisture 🌧️. Despite a record wheat export in the first half of this season, government-imposed export restrictions will likely drive the decline 📉.🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Data 📊The latest USDA drought monitor shows limited precipitation across the Corn Belt last week 🌽. Drought conditions have largely remained unchanged, although there was some improvement in southeast Kentucky 📉. Precipitation was also limited across the High Plains, where drought conditions stayed the same. Overall, 6% fewer areas in the region are experiencing drought compared to this time last year 🌱. As of the latest data:54% of US corn is affected by drought 🌽.47% of US soybeans are impacted 🌱.27% of US winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat are experiencing drought 🌾.37% of cattle are in drought-affected areas 🐄.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Merry Christmas!1:00 99 Soybean Problems4:41 Brazil Economic Problems7:43 Russia Crop Concerns9:13 Strong Soybean Shipments10:23 Flash Sales🌾 Brazilian and Argentine Weather Forecasts Diverge 🌍Brazil’s weather remains nearly ideal for soybean growth, with above-normal temperatures expected across most of the country in the next two weeks 🌞. Soybean planting in Brazil is complete, and USDA projects that Brazil will account for 40% of global soybean production this year 🌱. In contrast, Argentina’s weather is turning dry, with key soybean areas expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks 🌾. While it's too early for a full "crop scare event," the soybean meal market has already taken notice 📉. Argentina is expected to account for only 12% of global soybean production this year 🌍.💵 Brazil’s Interest Rates Expected to Rise Amid Inflation 📈Brazil’s benchmark interest rate is projected to rise sharply as inflation continues to run high. Brazilian economists expect the rate to climb to 15% by June 2025 💸. This month, rates were increased by 1% to 12.25%. The depreciation of the Brazilian real has contributed to elevated inflation levels, as investors lose confidence in the currency due to doubts about Brazil’s president’s commitment to improving the economy.🌾 Russia’s Winter Crops Face Warm Temperatures 🌡️Russia’s winter crops could be impacted by above-average temperatures, potentially causing sprouts to resume vegetation 🌱. Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, projects that winter wheat crop acres will be about 5% less than last year 📉. This follows earlier reports that over 37% of Russia’s winter crops were rated as poor or yet to sprout, marking the worst crop condition on record 🌾. Additionally, wheat exports are expected to decline by 17% this season, mainly due to lower production.📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge, Corn and Wheat Sales Mixed 🚢US soybean shipments were strong last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export 📦. This was a 3% increase from the previous week and a 56% rise compared to the same week last year 📊. Corn shipments were reported at 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), which was a 1.7% decrease compared to the previous week and an 8.5% decline compared to the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments hit a 12-week high, surpassing expectations with 403,719 metric tons (15 million bushels) 🌾. The wheat figure was 34% higher than the previous week but 15% lower than the same week last year.📦 USDA Reports Flash Sales of Corn and Soybeans 🚢132,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌽.132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌱.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 18k Subs!0:50 Shutdown Avoided + Direct Payments4:24 Argentina is Dry6:30 Biofuels at Risk?8:00 US/Mexico Corn Dispute9:20 The Funds10:05 Cattle on FeedUS Government Shutdown Avoided with New Stopgap Spending BillA US government shutdown was avoided over the weekend when President Joe Biden signed a stopgap spending bill that will fund the government through mid-March. The bill includes a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and $10 billion in economic aid for US farmers. However, a provision allowing the nationwide, year-round sale of E15 fuel was excluded.Direct Farm Payments Set to Arrive in 90 DaysThe $10 billion in direct payments to US farmers is now a "done deal," with payments set to be distributed within 90 days. The payments will be allocated by crop. The payments are part of the stopgap bill, which also includes significant support for the farming community.Argentina's Forecast: Dry Conditions for Soybean AreasArgentina’s soybean areas are expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Although the forecast is slightly wetter than before, the overall trend remains dry. Temperatures are expected to run above normal, further stressing crops. While Argentina is projected to account for just 12% of global soybean production, it is expected to make up 37% of soybean meal exports.Trump Plans to Repeal the Inflation Reduction ActPresident-elect Donald Trump is planning to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was passed by the Biden administration in August 2022. The repeal of the IRA could also risk the loss of 45Z tax credits, which support farming practices that reduce emissions and improve soil carbon. Repealing the IRA would likely require Congressional action, and its rollback could impact the clean energy sector.US Prevails in GMO Corn Trade Dispute with MexicoThe US won a trade dispute with Mexico over its ban of US genetically modified (GMO) corn. A trade panel ruled that Mexico’s ban violated the USMCA trade agreement and was not scientifically based. The ban had previously applied to GMO corn for human consumption, but US producers were concerned that it might be extended to GMO corn used for animal feed.Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in CornFunds reduced their net-long position in corn last week, with large money managers reported as net sellers of 8,000 corn contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat contracts also saw net selling.USDA’s COF ReportThe USDA’s Cattle on Feed report shows that the number of cattle on feed as of December 1 was 12 million head. Placements in November were reported at 96% of year-ago levels. Marketings last month came in at 99% of year-ago levels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.US House Rejects Trump-Backed Spending BillThe House rejected a Trump-backed spending bill on Thursday night. The bill required a two-thirds majority but failed by a vote of 174 to 235, with nearly 40 Republicans voting against it. Without a deal, a partial government shutdown is set to begin tonight at midnight.Soybean Futures Bounce Amid Bearish MarketSoybean futures bounced back on Thursday after hitting fresh lows earlier in the week. The March 2025 contract gained 13 cents on the day after breaking through technical support levels. Despite bearish fundamentals, the bounce maintained momentum overnight, although the contract may face technical resistance near the $9.82 level, a previous area of support. Corn futures also bounced, while wheat remained mostly lackluster in price action.Drier Conditions Expected for Key Soybean Areas in ArgentinaKey soybean areas in Argentina are expected to turn drier in the coming weeks. Recent below-normal precipitation has already affected corn and soybean regions, and the forecast predicts that Argentina’s soybean areas will receive only 46% of normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Argentina is projected to account for 12% of global soybean production this year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s weather forecasts remain favorable, with most key soybean areas expecting above-normal rainfall. CropProphet provides detailed weather maps to track these shifts.Chicago Wheat Futures Decline for Sixth Consecutive SessionChicago wheat futures declined for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, with the March 2025 contract falling by as much as 1.9%. This marks the lowest level since late August. The decline was attributed to a strong US dollar and concerns about ample global wheat supplies. According to the USDA, global wheat production for the season is expected to be the largest on record.US Soybean Export Sales IncreaseUS soybean export sales saw an increase last week, with 1.4mmt (52 million bushels) of soybeans sold. This was a 21% increase from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Corn sales also saw an increase, with 1.2mmt (46 million bushels) sold, up 24% from the prior week. Wheat sales were strong as well, totaling 457,900mt (17 million bushels), a 58% increase from the previous week.AGCO Shares Plummet Amid Struggling Farm EconomyAGCO’s shares tumbled by as much as 6.1% on Thursday before recovering slightly to close with a 3.8% loss. The decline follows AGCO’s announcement that 2025 net sales are projected to be around $9.6 billion, a significant drop from the $12 billion estimated for this year. The reduction is partly due to AGCO’s divestment of its grain-storage and livestock business, compounded by the struggling farm economy, which is expected to weigh on sales. North American retail sales are projected to decline by 25% next year.USDA Drought Monitor Data: Conditions Improve in Some AreasThe latest USDA drought monitor data reveals that parts of the Corn Belt received precipitation last week. Drought conditions improved across portions of Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri, but worsened slightly in western Missouri. The High Plains saw scattered precipitation, and conditions improved in northeast Nebraska and southwest Kansas.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump Opposes Stopgap US Government Spending BillPresident-elect Donald Trump has voiced strong opposition to the stopgap US government spending bill. In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that he is totally against the bill, although he doesn’t have the power to veto it, as he isn’t president yet. Trump’s influence over Republican lawmakers could still impact the bill’s passage. The spending package, if passed, would fund the government through mid-March. However, if the bill fails, the government could face a partial shutdown as early as Saturday. The bill includes $31 billion in aid for US farmers, which has been a point of contention for many agricultural groups.Soybean Futures Collapse Amid Bearish Market SentimentSoybean futures took a significant hit on Wednesday, with the March 2025 contract losing more than 25 cents per bushel. On a continuation basis, spot futures posted their lowest trade since late August. A breakout below key technical support earlier in the week likely triggered additional selling pressure. Fund traders were estimated to have sold 20,000 contracts, contributing to the downward trend. Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Continues to RiseEstimates for Brazil’s soybean crop continue to grow. Patria Agronegocios, a Brazilian consulting group, now expects the crop to reach 170.4 million metric tons (mmt), slightly above the USDA's forecast of 169 mmt. Brazil’s corn crop is also projected to be robust at 129.3 mmt, compared to the USDA's estimate of 127 mmt.US Ethanol Production Strong AgainUS ethanol production was strong last week, with output reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from the previous week and 2.7% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks stood at 22.6 million barrels, slightly lower than the prior week but still up 2.4% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.3% compared to the previous week and 1% higher than last year, reflecting consistent fuel demand. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 2.9% compared to the same period last year.Biden Administration Awards $116 Million to Fertilizer IndustryThe Biden administration has awarded $116 million to the fertilizer industry to help increase competition and lower costs. The funds will be distributed to eight facilities to expand fertilizer production across nine states. This investment comes as agricultural groups and lawmakers have criticized the consolidation of the $140 billion US fertilizer industry. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates for Third Time in a RowThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive rate cut. The new benchmark short-term rate is now 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed signaled that it expects to reduce rates only twice in 2025, as opposed to the previously anticipated four cuts. The news sent stock markets tumbling, with the Dow Jones falling 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropping 3%, and the Nasdaq losing 3.6%.The USDA reported flash sales on Wednesday:135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Farm Payments4:08 Year-Round / Nationwide E156:37 Soybean Collapse8:12 Reduced Russian Wheat Crop9:39 Brazil Currency11:22 Flash SalesStopgap US Government Spending Bill Includes Aid for FarmersIf approved, the stopgap US government spending bill will include additional economic assistance for farmers. The bill extends the 2018 Farm Bill for one year and provides $10 billion in aid to help farmers cope with challenging markets and severe weather conditions. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill Thursday night, and it will then head to the Senate for approval before the government shutdown deadline on Friday night. Year-Round E15 Fuel Sales ApprovedThe stopgap funding bill will allow for the year-round, nationwide sale of E15 fuel. Currently, E15 is available only in a few states during the summer months due to environmental restrictions. The approval is expected to gradually increase ethanol usage, with demand growth contingent on consumer adoption and infrastructure development.Soybean Futures Hit Fresh LowsSoybean futures fell to fresh lows overnight, with the March 2025 contract dipping below $9.70 per bushel for the first time. The violation of key technical support levels led to additional selling pressure. The global soybean supply and demand situation is projected to be hugely burdensome due to the expectation of a massive Brazilian crop. While US processors are on track to crush a record amount of soybeans, exports have been weak compared to the last decade.Sovecon Cuts Russia’s 2025 Wheat Crop ForecastSovecon, a Russian consulting group, has reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop by 3.7%, bringing the projection down to 78.7 million metric tons (mmt). The reduction is due to poor crop conditions, which are some of the worst seen in decades. If achieved, the 2025 wheat crop would be the smallest since 2021 and below the five-year average of 88.2 mmt. Brazilian Central Bank Intervenes to Stabilize RealThe Central Bank of Brazil conducted two dollar auctions on Tuesday, totaling over $3.3 billion in an effort to stabilize the real. This marks the fourth intervention in three days, aiming to halt the currency’s steep decline. The real has fallen by more than 20% this year, hitting a record low against the US dollar. On the back of this, Brazil’s central bank hiked interest rates by 1% to 12.25% last week, with two more hikes expected by March. The USDA reported several flash sales of soybeans and corn on Tuesday:170,400mt (7 million bushels) of corn were sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.187,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to Spain for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 NOPA Reports November Soybean Crush Data 📊The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its November crush data, showing a decline in US soybean crush for the month. NOPA members processed 193.19 million bushels, a 3.4% decrease from the October record but a 2.2% increase compared to November 2023 🌾. Despite the drop from October, November’s crush was the largest on record for the month and the fourth largest ever for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of November increased to 1.08 billion pounds, up 1% from October but down 11% compared to last year’s stocks. Stocks also fell short of the average trade estimate of 1.12 billion pounds 📉.⚖️ Farm Aid Negotiations Delay Stopgap Funding Bill ⏳Negotiations over farm aid have delayed the release of the stopgap funding bill. Initially expected on Sunday, the bill's release has been postponed due to disagreements over economic farm assistance and other provisions. Speaker Mike Johnson is facing challenges due to a slim majority and conservative opposition as the government faces a shutdown deadline this Saturday 🏛️. Lawmakers from agriculture states are pushing for a one-year farm bill extension and additional funding for farmers affected by severe weather 🌾. GOP leaders are pushing for $12 billion in economic aid for farmers, and agricultural groups are urging that this be included in the final package 💼. Updates on this are expected to be released as early as today 📰.💸 Brazilian Real Hits Record Low, Central Bank Takes Action 🇧🇷The Brazilian real fell to a record low on Monday, leading the central bank to sell $1.63 billion in a dollar spot auction to stabilize the currency 🏦. Despite this effort, the real declined more than 1%, closing at 6.1351 per dollar 🌍. The central bank had also raised interest rates by 1% last week, with plans for two more hikes, but these measures have had limited impact due to rising government spending and inflation concerns 💰. Brazil’s president has shifted blame to the central bank for the country’s fiscal challenges and is defending the government's recent fiscal package 📉.🌾 Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearly Complete 🇧🇷Brazilian farmers have nearly completed soybean planting for the 2023/2024 season, with favorable rainfall boosting growing conditions across most of the country 🌧️. However, far southern areas have received excessive precipitation, which could impact those regions' crops 🌱. AgRural, a private agricultural group, is projecting that Brazil’s soybean crop will reach 171.5 million metric tons (mmt) for the season, up from previous forecasts 🌍.📉 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Corn and Wheat Shipments Increase 🚢US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (62 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, a 3.5% drop from the previous week but an 18% increase compared to the same week last year 📦. Corn shipments were strong, totaling 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), up 6.8% from the previous week and 18% higher than the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments increased to 298,075 metric tons (11 million bushels), up 20% from the previous week and 4.7% higher than last year’s shipments 🌾.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Payments?3:46 Drier Argentina5:23 "The Funds" and Corn8:31 Brazil Deforestation9:55 Mexican Cattle Imports Still SuspendedUS Corn and Soybean Industry Groups Push for Financial AssistanceUS corn and soybean industry groups are urgently seeking financial assistance for farmers. With Congress yet to release or vote on its year-end spending package, farm groups are pressing for legislation to provide economic support due to challenging market conditions and poor weather. Although Congressional leaders have indicated the package does not currently include aid for farmers, both groups are calling for renewed talks on a potential aid package. There may be fresh developments on the FARM Act today.Argentina's Soybean Areas Face Dry ConditionsSome Argentina soybean areas are likely to experience below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly in the key northern areas of the Buenos Aires province 🌾. Soybean areas further north are expected to see more normalized rainfall, while Brazil will experience above-normal rainfall across most soybean-producing regions, except for far southern areas, which have already been too wet. These rainfall patterns are crucial for crop development, and further changes could impact overall yield forecasts. The Funds Increase Net-Long Position in CornFund traders significantly increased their net-long position in the corn market last week, with the CFTC data showing that as of December 10, large money managers were net buyers of 92,000 corn contracts. This brings the total net-long position to 166,000 contracts, the largest since February 2023. Funds also bought 15,000 soybean contracts and 3,000 SRW wheat contracts on the week, reflecting bullish sentiment in the grain markets.New Brazilian Laws Threaten Amazon Soy MoratoriumNew laws in several Brazilian states, including Mato Grosso and Rondonia, may weaken soybean restrictions in the Amazon, particularly regarding the Amazon soy moratorium. This moratorium, established in 2006, bans companies from buying soybeans produced on deforested land after 2008. Environmental groups are strongly criticizing the new laws, which remove tax incentives for companies that comply with the moratorium. Mexican Cattle Imports Delayed Until Next YearMexican cattle imports are not expected to resume until next year. The USDA reported that shipments are likely to resume incrementally after the New Year, with full resumption expected later in the year 🐄. Imports were halted in November after the detection of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border. The USDA is using $165 million from the Commodity Credit Corporation to help eradicate the pest in Mexico and Central America. USDA Flash Sale of SoybeansThe USDA reported a flash sale of 200,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate IncreasedConab, Brazil’s version of the USDA, has raised its estimate for the 2023/2024 Brazilian soybean crop to 166.2mmt, up slightly from its previous estimate and 12.5% higher than last season. Favorable growing conditions have boosted both planting progress and crop development. As of December 1, 90% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Soybean acres are projected to expand by 2.6%, reaching just over 117 million acres this season. US Soybean and Corn Export Sales DisappointUS soybean and corn export sales were disappointing last week, with soybean sales falling well below expectations at 1.2 million metric tons (43 million bushels), a 49% drop from the previous week and 42% below the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Similarly, corn sales were also below expectations, at 946,900 metric tons (37 million bushels), a 45% decline from the previous week and 32% below the 4-week average. Colombia was the largest corn buyer. Wheat sales also lagged, totaling 290,200 metric tons (11 million bushels), 23% lower than the previous week.Canada’s Potential Retaliation Against US TariffsCanada is considering export taxes on key commodities, such as uranium, oil, and potash, if President-elect Donald Trump imposes broad tariffs on Canadian imports. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US and a key exporter of uranium for US nuclear plants. It also supplies potash, which is crucial for US agriculture. US Agriculture Sector Discusses Policies with Trump’s TeamThe US agriculture sector is engaging with Donald Trump’s team to address concerns over his proposed policies, particularly around tariffs, trade, and immigration. Some agricultural groups are pushing for the expansion of the H-2A visa program to meet labor needs. There’s also a call for China to honor its commitment to purchase $50 billion annually in US agricultural products, as per the Phase One trade agreement. However, concerns remain about Trump’s tariffs, with many industry groups fearing negative impacts on trade and the broader economy. Similar to his first trade war, Trump is expected to provide financial aid to farmers to offset potential losses.Summit Carbon Solutions Gets Approval for PipelineSummit Carbon Solutions has received approval from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to build 28 miles of carbon capture pipeline running from the North Dakota border to an ethanol plant in Fergus Falls, Minnesota. Construction is set to begin in 2026, pending finalization of right-of-way agreements with landowners along the route. Summit has already received permits in IA and ND and is reapplying in SD after initial rejection.USDA Drought Monitor DataThe latest USDA drought monitor shows that drought conditions remain prevalent across the Corn Belt, with limited precipitation last week. Drought conditions worsened in portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, while conditions were mostly unchanged in other areas, including the High Plains. Notably, western Kansas saw an expansion of drought conditions. As of the most recent data:57% of corn is affected by drought.51% of soybeans are experiencing drought stress.29% of winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat face drought.41% of cattle are impacted by dr

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Farmer Selling2:35 China is "Prepared" for Trade War6:10 Ethanol Production7:22 Gold/Silver Tariff Implications8:28 Inflation UpdateCorn Futures Encounter Technical ResistanceCorn futures struggled on Wednesday to break through key technical resistance levels. The most heavily traded March 2025 contract stopped just 1 cent short of its October high before reverting lower. Anecdotal reports suggest a substantial amount of farmer selling occurred, which contributed to the price pullback. Despite this, ethanol plants and elevators posted weaker basis bids amid strength in the futures market. Private estimates indicate that fund traders were net buyers of 5,000 contracts on Wednesday after buying 30,000-35,000 contracts on Tuesday. Some estimates suggest large money managers could be net long as much as 150,000 contracts in real time.Potential Second Trump Trade War: A Bigger Risk for US Grain ExportsAnalysts believe that a second trade war with China could be more damaging than the first, especially for US soybean exports. During the first trade war, Chinese soybean purchases from the US dropped 79%, but China still relied on US supplies for certain needs. If a new trade war breaks out, however, China may completely shift to Brazilian soybeans and could bypass US soybeans entirely. Additionally, China is better prepared for another trade war, as it currently holds record soybean stocks. In recent years, China has also sought to reduce its reliance on US corn, approving the import of Brazilian and Argentine corn. US Ethanol Production Shows Modest IncreaseUS ethanol production increased slightly last week, with output reaching 1.08 million barrels per day, showing a small increase both from the previous week and compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.6 million barrels, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week but a 5.6% increase from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1% compared to the previous week and 4.1% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 1.1% compared to the same period last year.Gold and Silver Premiums Surge Amid Tariff ConcernsGold and silver premiums surged in New York on Wednesday, with gold futures for February delivery trading up to $60 an ounce above spot prices in London. Silver futures were more than $1 an ounce higher during the session. This spike in premiums was driven by short-covering by banks and funds, with concerns about the potential impact of 10% tariffs on precious metals. Consumer Prices Rise in NovemberUS consumer prices rose by 2.7% in November on an annual basis, up from 2.6% in October. For the month, inflation climbed 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since April. Both figures were in line with expectations. Despite the uptick in inflation, traders are anticipating a 99% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting next week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Rally on USDA Report 📊Corn futures rallied on Tuesday, driven by a friendly USDA report 📈. The nearby March 2025 corn contract gained more than 7 cents per bushel, closing at $4.49, its best close since early October 🌽. The USDA increased its projection for US corn exports by a whopping 150 million bushels, citing a strong sales pace. In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for corn demand via ethanol by 50 million bushels. As a result, the USDA reduced the 24/25 US carryout projection by 200 million bushels, signaling a tighter corn balance sheet 📉.🌾 USDA's Bearish Soybean Projection Continues 📉The USDA continues to project a burdensome soybean situation for the current marketing year 🌱. The government left its US soybean balance sheet unchanged, with Brazil's crop estimate remaining at 169 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina's production estimate slightly increased to 52 mmt 🌍. The global supply and demand situation for soybeans is expected to be the 2nd most bearish on record, only behind the 2018/2019 marketing year. The stocks/use ratio is also expected to remain high, further indicating pressure on the soybean market 📉.🇨🇳 China Prepares Stimulus Measures Amid US Tariffs 🏦China is ready to implement stimulus measures to counter the effects of US trade tariffs 💰. In response, China will adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, marking a shift from its cautious approach of the past 14 years 📊. This policy change reflects China's willingness to take on higher debt levels and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio as it aims to stimulate growth 🏗️. These measures will prioritize consumption and high-tech manufacturing while managing risks. The extent of China’s policy will depend on the timing and scale of new US tariffs 🇺🇸.💼 Trump's Tariffs May Not Be as Severe as Expected 📉President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs may not have the far-reaching impact many have anticipated 💼. Leaders from Guggenheim Partners and Franklin Templeton suggest that Trump’s tariffs could be more of a negotiating tactic rather than universal and severe actions 🔄. Experts argue that these targeted tariffs may not trigger a full-scale trade war, and the negative impacts on the global economy are expected to be delayed due to the slow pace of policy implementation in Washington, D.C. 📅.📊 US Inflation Likely Paused in November 📉The downward trend in US inflation appears to have paused in November 📊. The CPI report is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up 0.1% from October 📈. On a monthly basis, inflation is anticipated to have risen 0.3%. Traders are still predicting a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at next week’s meeting 🏦. However, some economists are concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could keep inflation elevated into 2025, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as expected 📊.🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!For more updates on grain markets, global trade, and economic trends, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Canada Tariff Threat3:00 USDA Preview4:50 Brazil Soybean Update7:59 Russia Back and Forth9:10 Grain Shipment Update10:15 Trump and Beef IndustryCanada Warns of Retaliation Against US Tariffs-Canada is preparing to retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it clear that Canada will respond if the tariffs are enforced. In 2018, Canada retaliated to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum by imposing tariffs on bourbon and Harley-Davidsons, which were effective enough to lead to the removal of those tariffs. USDA Crop Production Report to be Released Today-The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production report today at 11:00am CST. Traders are expecting minimal changes to the US grain balance sheets. Some believe the USDA will increase its demand projections for US corn, particularly through exports and ethanol production, while others think the agency will delay adjustments until January. Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearing Completion-Brazilian soybean planting is nearly complete, with 95% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday, up from 91% the previous week.  Russian Wheat Crop Condition: Updated Outlook-The Russian wheat crop may not be as poor as previously reported, according to a Russian analytical group that leaked data suggesting a high proportion of the crop was either in poor condition or hadn’t sprouted yet. However, Sovecon, a Russian consulting firm, stated that it is too early to assess the crop's condition, as increased temperatures linked to climate change have led to a delayed sprouting of many plants. US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Above Last Year-US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (60 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, marking a 23% decrease from the previous week. However, shipments were still 62% higher than the same week last year. Corn shipments were strong, at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), up 10% from the prior week and 45% higher than the same week last year. Wheat shipments, however, fell below expectations, at 226,513 metric tons (8 million bushels), a 24% drop from the previous week.US Beef Market Faces Further Constraints from Tariffs and Immigration Reform-The US beef herd continues to shrink, driven by drought, rising input costs, and market volatility, with herd numbers at their lowest since 1961. This reduction has driven beef prices to record highs, and cattle markets have soared to all-time highs. If Trump imposes tariffs on beef or cattle imports, beef prices could rise even further. Additionally, Trump’s planned immigration reform could increase labor costs for meat packers, potentially impacting the beef market by pushing prices even higher.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 2-Day Corn Rally2:55 The Funds4:22 Russia Wheat Update7:25 Mexico to Negotiate8:50 World Food Prices🌽 Corn Futures Rally on Friday 📈Corn futures rallied on Friday, with the most heavily traded March 2025 contract gaining 5 cents per bushel and posting its best daily close since November 20th. The rally is attributed to strong demand for US corn, particularly from both exports and ethanol production, which have outperformed expectations 🌱. Farmers remain tight holders of their 2024 bushels, and end-users have had to increase basis bids to secure the corn they need 🌾. Private estimates suggest that fund traders were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of corn on Friday 📊.📊 CFTC Data: Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn 🌽According to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data, large money managers were net sellers of 11,000 corn contracts last week 📉, indicating a reduction in their net-long position in the market. However, funds were net buyers of 13,000 soybean contracts 🌱 and net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾 during the same week. This shift in positions may signal potential changes in market dynamics for the coming weeks 🧑‍💼.🌾 Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Crop Projections 📊Russia’s 2025 wheat crop is projected to remain unchanged from this year, with an estimated 81.5 million metric tons (mmt), slightly up from this year's 81.3 mmt 🌾. Dry conditions that reduced this year’s crop production also led to a reduction in planting for next year’s crop, with damaged winter wheat likely to be replanted with spring wheat 🌱. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat crop is projected to increase by 6%, with the 2025 crop estimated at 23.7 mmt, up from 22.4 mmt in 2024 📈.🇲🇽 Mexico Responds to Trump's Tariff Threats 📉Mexico is seeking to negotiate in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats 🌎. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are aimed at curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In response, Mexico has cracked down on drug smuggling from Asia, detained thousands of migrants, and seized a record amount of fentanyl 💊. Additionally, Mexico is planning to adopt an investment screening approach similar to the US, offering incentives for manufacturing investments, including the production of batteries for regional supply chains ⚡.📈 Global Food Prices Surge to 18-Month High 🌍Food prices have climbed to their highest level in over a year and a half, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 📊. The food price index averaged 127.5 points in November, marking a 0.5% increase from October and a 5.7% increase from last year 🌾. The rise is largely driven by an increase in vegetable oil prices, which saw a 7.5% jump from the prior month, the largest increase since July 2022. Cereal prices declined by 2.7% due to a drop in global wheat prices 🌾.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Russia’s winter crops are facing significant challenges, with over 37% in poor condition—a record high—and only 31% rated as good, the lowest in 23 years. Due to frosts ❄️ and drought 🌞, some winter crops will need to be replaced with spring crops 🌱. Despite the poor conditions, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the situation isn’t critical. However, the wheat harvest 🍞 is expected to decline by 11% this year.🌱 Corteva is looking to expand its presence in Brazil's genetically modified (GM) soybean seed 🌾 market, aiming for 20–30% market share with its Enlist E3 seeds by 2030. Although the seeds currently hold a negligible share in Brazil, they dominate nearly two-thirds of the US market 🇺🇸 since their 2019 launch. Challenges in Brazil include competition with Bayer ⚔️ and economic struggles 💸 affecting farmers’ ability to adopt new technologies. Year-to-date, Corteva’s shares 📈 have risen by 29%.📊 US export sales of soybeans, while down 7% from the previous week, reached 2.3mmt (85M bushels), near the upper range of expectations. China 🇨🇳 was the largest buyer. Corn 🌽 exports exceeded forecasts at 1.7mmt (68M bushels), up 63% from the prior week, with Mexico 🇲🇽 as the largest buyer. Wheat 🌾 sales were 378,200mt (14M bushels), led by Mexican purchases.🌨️ USDA drought data shows improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt 🌽, including Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, due to snowfall. Slight improvements were also noted in northwest Minnesota, southeast Missouri, and eastern North Dakota, but the High Plains 🌾 saw no significant changes. Drought remains widespread, affecting 54% of corn, 49% of soybeans, and 40% of cattle areas 🐄.🛒 The USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5M bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Accumulated soybean sales are up 12% compared to the same period last year, signaling robust demand 📈.🔔 Stay Informed & Subscribe! For more updates on these key developments in global trade, agriculture, and energy, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Stock Market and Grain Marketing Comparison4:29 Bitcoin 100k6:02 Mexico Economic Problems7:46 Mexico GMO Ban?10:47 Russia Wheat Problems12:11 Ethanol Production PaceStock Market Hits Record HighsThe stock market reached new record highs on Wednesday! The Dow Jones climbed by 0.7%, surpassing the 45,000 mark for the first time. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also set new records, gaining 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. These gains were driven by a rally in technology stocks, alongside positive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in "remarkably good shape" and that potential risks in the labor market have subsided. Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time early this morning! The world's most famous cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% since Donald Trump's election in early November. Paul Atkins, a well-known crypto advocate, was appointed to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Trump, sparking optimism in the crypto community. Additionally, significant money flows into Wall Street’s Bitcoin ETFs have added to the momentum.Mexico's Economic Outlook DeterioratesMexico’s economic outlook is deteriorating, with 47% of Mexicans now believing the economy is in bad shape, an increase from 44% in October. The economic slowdown is becoming more apparent after only two months under the new administration. The situation could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.Mexico and GM Corn Imports Dispute Nears ResolutionMexico is optimistic about a resolution to its dispute over genetically modified (GM) corn imports. The US had opposed Mexico’s attempt to limit these imports, claiming that the restrictions violated the USMCA agreement. The dispute resolution is expected by December 14, which could offer clarity on future trade relations between the two countries.Russia’s Winter Crops Face Record Poor ConditionsRussia’s winter crops are facing the worst conditions on record, with a 37% of the crop in poor condition, the highest percentage ever recorded. In comparison, only 4% of last year’s crop was in poor condition at this time, and the five-year average is 8%. The crop’s quality has significantly dropped, with only 31% rated in good condition, the lowest in 23 years. US Ethanol Production Declines for the First Time in Over Two MonthsUS ethanol production dropped by 4.1% last week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the first decline in more than two months. Despite this, production remains 6.1% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23 million barrels, a +1% increase compared to the previous week. Implied gasoline demand rose 2.7% compared to last week and 6.5% compared to last year, although US gasoline demand has been slightly down over the las

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌿 45Z Tax Credit Guidelines: Conflicting Reports and Uncertainty Ahead 💰There’s confusion surrounding the 45Z tax credit guidelines, as Reuters and Bloomberg have released conflicting reports regarding their finalization. Reuters suggests that the US Treasury will not issue guidance before President Biden’s term ends due to disagreements between agricultural lobbyists and environmentalists over how the program should align with climate goals 🌎. On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that a Treasury spokesperson confirmed the guidance would be issued before the end of Biden’s term, allowing eligible producers to claim 45Z tax credits for 2025 📅. The biofuel industry is urging lawmakers to extend blender credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year, hoping for clarity before the shift in administration 🍃.🌾 US Farmer Sentiment Surges After Election 📊US farmer sentiment hit its highest level in over three years following the presidential election 📈. The Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose by 30 points in November, reaching 145, its highest since May 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped by 37 points, reaching 161, its best since April 2021 🌱. Farmers are more optimistic about future regulations and taxes, but concerns remain over agricultural trade, with more than 40% of respondents believing that a trade war with China is likely under the Trump administration 🛒🌏.🌍 EU Delays Deforestation Law Amid Global Criticism 🌳The European Union has reached a tentative deal to delay its deforestation law, which aims to limit the import of products tied to deforestation 🌍. The law requires importers to prove their goods, such as soy, beef, and coffee, are not linked to deforested areas 🌱. Brazil, Indonesia, and other major agricultural producers have been critical of the law. The delay will provide time for European businesses and farmers to prepare before the law takes effect. The final adoption of the deal by EU member states and parliament is expected to be a formality by the end of the month 📅.🏢 ADM Focuses on Cost Reductions Amid Farm Economy Challenges 💼ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) is implementing cost reduction measures as it faces ongoing challenges in the farm economy. The grain trader anticipates declining profits next year due to low crop prices 🌾. Additionally, uncertainty around biofuel regulations and the potential for a trade war between the US and China could weigh on ADM's profitability 📉. The company is also under investigation by the SEC and federal authorities over accounting errors in its Nutrition division 📊, contributing to a 25% drop in its stock this year 💔.⚡ Biden's Clean Energy Grants Total Over $100 Billion 🌞President Biden has awarded $100 billion in clean energy grants through the Inflation Reduction Act, his signature climate legislation 🌱. Over 80% of these grants have already been allocated, securing funding for projects like carbon capture, wind power, and solar energy ☀️. These funds aim to support the transition to clean energy, making it challenging for President-elect Donald Trump, a climate skeptic, to cancel them once he takes office 🌍. The grants also include tax incentives for clean energy projects, which would require congressional action to reverse 📜.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Record Brazilian Soybean Crop Projected 🌾Private consulting groups are forecasting a record Brazilian soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season. StoneX estimates the crop at 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), with exports reaching 103 mmt, while Celeres projects the crop to hit 170.8 mmt, with exports totaling 107 mmt 🌎. The favorable growing conditions and high-quality inputs are driving this projection, although StoneX highlighted ongoing concerns over dryness in southern Brazil 🌞. As of last Thursday, AgRural reported that 91% of the soybean area has been planted, up from 86% the previous week, and ahead of 85% planted at the same time last year 📈.🏭 Cargill to Lay Off Thousands Amid Declining Profits 💼Cargill, the global agricultural trading giant, announced plans to lay off 5% of its workforce, or around 8,200 workers, in response to financial pressures. The layoffs will mostly occur before the end of the year, impacting senior leaders but not top executives 🚶. Cargill’s profits have been hit by record global corn and soybean crops and the declining US cow herd, which is at its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. For fiscal 2024, Cargill reported a $2.48 billion profit, the lowest since 2016 📉.💼 ADM’s Accounting Scandal Expands 📊The investigation into ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) accounting errors has expanded. The SEC launched a civil probe earlier this year after the company revised its earnings twice due to discrepancies in its Nutrition division 💼. ADM is facing accusations of inflating profits through manipulated intersegment transactions, which may have led to securities fraud 💸. The company maintains that the errors didn’t affect overall profits, but ADM’s stock continues to struggle, now valued at about half of its 2022 peak 📉.📉 Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn Market 🌽"The Funds" have reduced their net-long position in the corn market, with large money managers selling 23,000 corn contracts last week 📉. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of soybeans and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾. The decline in corn futures reflects shifting sentiment in the market, and the reduced positions come as part of broader adjustments by institutional investors 📉.📦 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Strong Year-on-Year 📊US soybean shipments declined slightly last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous week. However, shipments remain +78% higher compared to the same week last year 🌱. Corn shipments were down 7.2% from the previous week, and wheat shipments decreased by 19%. Despite these declines, both corn and wheat shipments were still higher than last year 📦.🌾 USDA Reports Flash Soybean Sale 🚢US exporters reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. While soybean sales started off weak this marketing year, they have since recovered and are now ranked as the sixth best in the last ten years, highlighting strong international demand for US soybeans 🌎.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump Proposes Major Tariffs on BRIC Nations and North American TradePresident-elect Donald Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) if they undermine the US dollar. These countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, which currently dominates global currency exchanges at 58%. With the BRIC nations’ growing economic influence, this move could challenge the dollar’s position in global trade. Mexico Responds to Trump’s Tariff ThreatsMexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified her conversation with Donald Trump after his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Trump claimed Sheinbaum agreed to close Mexico’s southern border to migration, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will continue its policy of keeping the border open and fostering positive bilateral relations. She also expressed confidence that a tariff war between the two countries would not take place.Brazil’s Soybean Crop Expected to Break RecordsAgroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, has forecasted a record-large soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season, estimating a 172.2 million metric tons (mmt) harvest. This would surpass last year’s record of 162.4 mmt by nearly 11%. USDA estimates a slightly smaller crop of 169 mmt, while Brazil's own Conab predicts 166.1 mmt. Brazil’s soybean exports are also projected to hit a record 103.4 mmt, driven by favorable growing conditions and strong international demand.US Soybean and Corn Export Sales SoarUS soybean export sales reached a marketing-year high, with 2.5 million metric tons (92 million bushels) sold last week. China remained the largest buyer, reflecting robust demand. Meanwhile, corn sales totaled 1.1 million metric tons (42 million bushels), though they were down 29% from the previous week. Mexico remained the largest buyer for US corn. Wheat sales came in at 366,800 metric tons (13 million bushels), showing a slight decline but still strong on the global stage.US Ethanol Production Hits Record HighUS ethanol production reached a record high last week, with an output of 1.12 million barrels per day. This marked the highest weekly output on record, surpassing the previous peak two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22.87 million barrels, reflecting strong production levels. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand rose 1% compared to the previous week.Russia Reduces Wheat Export Quota to Combat InflationRussia has cut its wheat export quota for the period from mid-February to June, reducing the limit to 11 million metric tons (mmt) — a 62% decrease from last year. This move is designed to control domestic wheat supply amid bad weather and rising inflation, which is currently at 8.5% 📊. Russia will also raise its wheat export duty to 18% starting Wednesday. Despite these measures, Russia is still expected to export 47-52 mmt of wheat this season, retaining its position as the world’s top wheat exporter.USDA Flash Sales of SoybeansThe USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans last week, including 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to China and 991,700 metric tons (36 million bushels) to unknown destinations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Housekeeping Notes1:08 Mexico Vows Retaliation3:16 China Buys More Brazilian Soybeans6:42 Dollar Strength8:14 Ceasefire9:27 Consumer Confidence🚨 Mexico Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs Against the US 🇲🇽💥Mexico’s President may impose retaliatory tariffs on the US if President-Elect Trump proceeds with his "day-one" tariff agenda 📉. Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico in an effort to curb illegal migration and the flow of drugs across the US-Mexico border 🌎🚨. President Claudia Scheinbaum warned that Mexico would respond to tariffs with additional measures, potentially risking vital trade relationships between the two nations 💼. Mexico has been the top buyer of US corn this year, making such a move significant for both countries.🌾 China Secures Brazilian Soybeans Before Trump's Return to the White House 🇨🇳China is ramping up its soybean purchases from Brazil, securing more than half of its soybean needs for February to April at lower prices 🛒. China is also securing around 20% of its needs for May to June ahead of Trump's return to the White House 🏛️. These purchases come despite higher prices for Brazilian soybeans during the December-January period, a time when the US typically dominates the global market 🌾. While China continues to buy US soybeans, outstanding soybean sales for this marketing year are at their lowest levels since 2018 📉.💵 Dollar Surges on Trump’s Tariff Threats 💰Donald Trump's tariff threats have boosted the US dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.7% on Tuesday 📈. This could lead to record highs for the dollar, surpassing levels seen in the 1980s. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both fell sharply, with the peso down by more than 2%.🇮🇱 Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Hezbollah 🇱🇧🕊️A ceasefire deal has been reached between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants after months of fighting, which started in October 2023. The deal was brokered by the US and France and went into effect early this morning ⏰. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports the ceasefire, as it allows Israel to focus on Iran's threats while continuing efforts to eliminate Hamas and secure the return of hostages 🕊️.📊 US Consumer Confidence at Highest Level Since July 2023 🛍️US consumer confidence has surged to its highest point since July 2023, with the Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 for November, up 2.1 points from October 📊. This increase reflects a more favorable outlook on the economy and labor market following Trump's election victory 🗳️.🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!For more updates on these developments, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let's keep the conversation going! 💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump’s New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on TradeDonald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with RainfallUS winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.Brazil Soybean Planting Near CompletionBrazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year’s pace of 74%. US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm DiscoveryThe US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply ConcernsCoffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trump’s Economic PoliciesFinancial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessent’s appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies. US Soybean and Corn Export Sales UpdateUS soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚢 Mexico's Bold Port Expansion Despite Trade Concerns 🌎Mexico is moving forward with a $2.7 billion port expansion at the Port of Manzanillo, aiming to more than double its capacity 🚢. This expansion will place it among the top 20 container ports globally 🌍. The port handles goods from over 140 countries, focusing on automotive, agricultural, and steel products. However, there are concerns from the US and Canada that Mexico could become a conduit for China to bypass trade restrictions and enter North America 🚫🇨🇳. Donald Trump has indicated that he plans to impose tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, including a 20% tariff on all goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports 📉. Trump has also suggested tariffs of over 200% on imported cars from Mexico 🚗.🌱 Trump Appoints Brooke Rollins to Lead USDA 🌾Brooke Rollins has been appointed by Donald Trump to lead the USDA. This surprise choice comes after significant debates among Trump's advisors and agricultural groups 🏛️. Although Rollins has deep ties to Trump and grew up on a farm, she has less agricultural policy experience compared to other candidates. As Secretary of Agriculture, Rollins will play a critical role in shaping agricultural policy, farm subsidies, and trade decisions, including Trump’s proposed tariffs 🏞️🍽️.🌽 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Market 💼"The Funds" have ramped up their net-long position in the corn market, as large money managers bought 7,000 corn contracts last week 📈. This brings their total net purchases to 463,000 contracts since July. The corn market remains strong amid solid demand, and fund managers continue to stay bullish 🌽. On the other hand, soybeans and SRW wheat saw net selling activity last week 📉.🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Surges Ahead 🌾Brazilian soybean planting has made rapid progress, with 83.3% of the expected area already planted 🧑‍🌾, compared to 74.7% last year at this time. Adequate rainfall in recent weeks has accelerated planting, alleviating earlier concerns about dryness 🌧️. With planting well ahead of schedule, Brazil is on track to produce another bumper soybean crop 📊.🐄 High Cattle On-Feed Numbers Reported 🐄Cattle on feed in the US remains high, with 12 million head as of November 1, matching pre-report expectations 📉. Placements in October were 105.3% of year-ago levels, reflecting higher placements due to ongoing drought conditions in cattle regions 🐂. Despite this, marketings were lower than expected, with 104.7% of year-ago levels, indicating market stability in the face of strong demand.🌾 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans 📦On Friday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌍. Since November, unknown destinations have bought 1.2 million metric tons (44 million bushels) of US soybeans through flash sales, indicating continued strong demand for US agricultural exports 🌾📦.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📈 John Deere Surges Despite Lower Earnings 🚜John Deere's stock soared 8% on Thursday, following better-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. Despite adjusted earnings per share coming in at $4.55 (higher than the expected $3.87), they were still down significantly from last year's $8.26. Revenue for the quarter dropped 28% to $11.1 billion, but still exceeded the forecast of $9.2 billion. Looking ahead, net income for fiscal 2025 is expected to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, down from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Deere’s stock is up 9% year-to-date 📊.🌱 Soybean Futures Face Pressure 🌍Soybean futures are under pressure, with the Jan25 contract hovering near life-of-contract lows 📉. Recent negative headlines, combined with favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and global oversupply, are contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over a potential US-China trade war have added to the uncertainty in the market 🌾.🌾 US Soybean Export Sales Surge 🌍US soybean export sales showed improvement last week, surpassing pre-report expectations with 1.9 million metric tons (68 million bushels) sold 🛳️. This represents a +20% increase compared to the previous week, though it is still -7% below the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer, continuing its strong demand for US soybeans 🇨🇳. On the other hand, corn sales and wheat sales saw mixed results, with corn sales up 14% from the prior week but down 40% from the 4-week average 🌽.🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update 🌾The USDA released new drought data, showing improvement in many areas of the Corn Belt following last week's rainfall 🌧️. The overall drought conditions have improved significantly, with only 50% of the region still experiencing some form of drought, down from 74% at the end of October 🌽. Oklahoma and parts of the High Plains also saw improvements in drought conditions 🌾.🇦🇷 Argentina’s Soybean and Corn Planting Progress 🚜Argentina is seeing rapid progress in its soybean planting, with nearly 36% of the expected 46 million acres already planted 🌱. The good surface moisture has helped speed up the planting process, with early-planted soybeans showing excellent growth 🌿. In addition, corn planting has reached 39.4% of the expected acreage, and 29.3% of the wheat crop has already been harvested 🌾.🚨 Flash Sales on Soybeans and Meal 🌍USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday, including:198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations 🌎.133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines 🇵🇭.These sales highlight continued strong demand for US agricultural products 📦.🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!For more market updates, don't forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and share your thoughts in the COMMENTS below 💬! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Brazil/China Agreement3:00 Corn Futures are Resilient6:09 Ethanol Production is STRONG7:25 Russia Wheat8:43 Deere Earnings9:45 Flash Sales🇨🇳 China Opens Door to Brazilian Sorghum Exports China has agreed to accept Brazilian sorghum exports, which could significantly impact the US sorghum market. Last year, China imported $1.83 billion worth of sorghum, predominantly from the US 🇺🇸, but with this new deal, Brazil could emerge as a major supplier 🌍. Brazil’s share of the global sorghum market currently stands at just 0.3%, but production has doubled in the last three years to 4.4 million metric tons (mmt) 📊. The move could become even more significant if Trump implements tariffs on China, potentially disrupting US exports to China.🌽 Resilient Corn Futures Show Strong Demand Corn futures have remained resilient, with the Dec24 contract showing modest gains despite earlier setbacks 📉. Demand continues to be strong, with export sales exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA projections 📦. Ethanol production is near record levels, contributing to the overall strength of the corn market 🌽. Large money managers are holding a net long position of around 114,000 contracts, suggesting optimism for continued demand. Calendar spreads are also showing strength, reflecting better-than-expected demand.⛽ US Ethanol Production and Stocks UpdateUS ethanol production saw a slight dip last week but remains at record highs, averaging 1.11 million barrels per day ⛽. Production is up 6% compared to the same week last year, while ethanol stocks reached 22.56 million barrels, marking a +2.4% increase from the previous week 📉. However, implied gasoline demand showed a -10% decline from the prior week and a -5.9% decrease compared to last year. Despite this, ethanol exports are strong, contributing to record-high production levels.🌾 Russia Faces Wheat DeclineRussia’s wheat production is expected to fall in the coming year, with farmers shifting to more profitable crops like soybeans and sunflowers 🌻. Frosts and drought have damaged this year’s crop, and production is projected to decline to 83 mmt, down from 92.8 mmt last year 🌾. In addition, increased input costs and export restrictions are further challenging the wheat market.🚜 John Deere’s Struggles in a Weak Farm EconomyJohn Deere is set to report its lowest earnings since 2020, with estimated adjusted earnings per share of $3.87 for the fourth quarter, down from $8.26 last year 💼. Deere’s profit forecasts for the next fiscal year could drop to $5.83 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.🌱 USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans 🇺🇸The USDA reported flash sales of soybeans on Wednesday, with 202,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. Another 226,200 metric tons (8 million bushels) were sold to unknown destinations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 New Tariff Man3:05 Xi, Brazil, Farm Trade4:55 Brazil Crop Estimates8:23 Russia Update9:59 US Ethanol Exports🚨 Major Shifts in Global Trade and Leadership 🚨🇺🇸 Donald Trump Appoints Howard Lutnick to Lead Commerce DepartmentDonald Trump has selected Howard Lutnick, the Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, to head the Commerce Department. Known for his strong stance against the outsourcing of American jobs, Lutnick is expected to play a key role in implementing Trump’s tariff and trade policies. Trump's agenda includes a 10-20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China 💼🇨🇳. He is also considering raising tariffs on imported cars from Mexico and countries that stop using the US dollar 🚗💰.🌏 China Urges for Peace and Stability in Global TradeDuring the G-20 and APEC summits, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of peace and avoiding extreme trade measures that could disrupt global trade 🚢⚖️. Xi expressed concerns about the economic repercussions of Trump's tariff plans, particularly regarding the potential for other countries to adopt similar policies 🌍. Meanwhile, Brazil is gearing up for agricultural trade deals with China, expected to include fruit, beef, and pork 🌱🍖.🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Industry on Track for Record Crop 📈Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to hit record levels this season, with projections from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries estimating a crop size of 167.7 million metric tons (mmt), a 9.4% increase from last year 🌱. Exports are projected to reach an all-time high of 104.1 million metric tons, driven by a boom in soybean crush, which is set to rise 4.6% this season 🌾💥.⚔️ Ukraine-Russia Conflict EscalatesThe ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia continues to intensify, with Ukraine striking a Russian military facility after being approved to use US-supplied long-range missiles. In response, Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear policy, stating that Russia would use nuclear weapons if Ukraine attacks Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. The situation remains volatile, with Donald Trump suggesting he could push for peace talks once back in the White House 🕊️💣.🌾 US Ethanol Exports Reach New Heights 🚜US ethanol exports are on track to set an all-time high, with a record 29.6 million barrels exported in the first eight months of this year 📊. The increase in exports comes as a result of last year’s record corn crop 🌽, leading to a decline in corn prices and making US ethanol more competitive globally 🌍. Production is also at a record pace, with daily production averaging 1.046 million barrels per day ⛽.🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!Don't forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going on these major global developments 🌎💬!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Global Tensions Rise as US Approves Long-Range Weapons for Ukraine 🚨In a significant escalation, Moscow has issued a warning after President Joe Biden's approval of Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles. The decision comes amid heightened global tensions, as North Korea joins Russia in supporting its stance against Ukraine. 🇷🇺🛑As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukrainian residential areas 🏚️, Putin reiterates Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons if necessary ☢️. Experts suggest the timing of this shift may be too late to alter the course of the ongoing war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have made their first strike into Russian territory using Western-made missiles. ✈️💥🌱 Brazil's Soybean Planting Surge 🌾Brazilian farmers are rapidly advancing their soybean planting, with 80% of the expected area already seeded as of last Thursday 📊. Although concerns about reduced rainfall in certain regions persist 🌧️, the crop remains on track. Additionally, Brazil has made significant progress on its first corn crop 🌽, with 86% planted compared to 72% last week.🌾 Improved US Wheat Conditions 🌾Rainfall has brought a much-needed boost to winter wheat conditions in the High Plains 🌧️. Crop ratings for wheat have risen to 49% good to excellent, marking the best conditions since 2019 📈. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have seen significant week-over-week improvements 🌾.🌱 Corteva’s Hybrid Wheat Seed Could Revolutionize Yields 🚜Corteva announces a game-changing hybrid wheat seed that could boost yields by up to 20% in dry conditions 🌾🌞. This new non-GMO seed technology will initially be rolled out in North America by 2027 and aims to improve wheat production without additional land or resources 🌍.📉 US Soybean & Wheat Shipments Update 🚢US soybean exports declined last week 📉, with a -8.4% decrease in shipments compared to the previous week. However, corn exports were on the rise, with shipments up +37% from last year 📊. Wheat shipments were down significantly, falling by -48% compared to last year 🚜. Flash sales were reported with soybean oil, soybeans, and soybean meal sold to international buyers 🛳️.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📊 Funds Expand Net-Long Positions in CornLast week, large money managers substantially increased their net-long positions in corn: Net buyers of 97k corn contracts, with a total net long of 100k contracts—the largest since February 2023.Despite the buying spree, the Dec24 corn contract gained only 12 cents during the reporting week.Funds were also net buyers of 17k soybean contracts and sellers of 18k SRW wheat contracts. 📉🌍 China’s Tax Rebate Changes Impact Soybean Oil PricesChina plans to reduce or eliminate export tax rebates on various products, including used cooking oil: The removal of tax rebates for used cooking oil, widely used in biofuel production, has raised US soybean oil prices.US soybean oil futures climbed 2% on Friday, reflecting expectations of increased domestic usage.Chinese used cooking oil imports have been undercutting US farmers, with concerns about fraudulent imports raised earlier this year. These changes will take effect December 1.🏭 US Soybean Crush Hits Record HighThe National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported an all-time high US soybean crush for October:199.96 million bushels processed, up 12.8% from September and 5.4% from October 2023.End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose slightly to 1.07 billion pounds, below the trade estimate of 1.09 billion pounds.Strong crush numbers signal robust domestic demand for soybeans and soybean oil. 🌱🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline Gains Approval in North DakotaSummit Carbon Solutions has secured regulatory approval for its carbon pipeline route in North Dakota:The permit was initially denied in 2023 but was granted after Summit made changes to its proposal.Summit has secured 82% of easements in North Dakota but still lacks eminent domain authority.The company plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota this week after a prior denial. 🌎🚢 Disappointing Export SalesUS export sales were lower across the board last week:Soybeans: 1.6mmt (57 million bushels), down 24% week-over-week and from the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer.Corn: 1.3mmt (52 million bushels), down 53% week-over-week and 52% from the 4-week average. Unknown destinations topped the buyers.Wheat: 380,100mt (14 million bushels), a slight +1% week-over-week but -17% from the 4-week average. South Korea was the largest buyer.🌾 Rain Boosts US Winter WheatRainfall across US HRW wheat country has improved soil moisture and crop conditions:Rain was observed in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri overnight, following substantial rainfall last weekend.Winter wheat ratings improved last week and are expected to improve further with the recent rains in HRW and SRW wheat areas.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Soybean and Wheat Futures WeakeningSoybean futures are moving closer to August lows, with the Jan24 soybean contract dropping 20 cents per bushel on Thursday, hovering around 20 cents from its August low. Factors such as a massive Brazilian crop, the US/China trade tension, and global supply pressures continue to weigh heavily on prices.Similarly, the Dec24 HRW wheat contract dropped 8 cents and is trading just 9 cents above its August low. However, there is some optimism as US winter wheat conditions are likely to improve with the recent rainfall.🏛️ Trump Administration ChangesPresident-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The nomination is expected to face Senate challenges, especially given Kennedy’s controversial stances on food safety, environmental policies, and vaccination.Trump’s tariff proposals continue to attract attention. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, believes tariffs are a necessary tool for addressing unfair trade but emphasized that their implementation needs to be cautious. Despite this, Dimon was not invited to serve in Trump’s administration.🔋 US Ethanol Production Hits Record HighThe US ethanol production reached a record-high last week, with output hitting 1.11 million barrels per day. This exceeded previous records set earlier this year. Ethanol stocks also saw a slight increase of 5% year-over-year. However, implied gasoline demand saw a slight dip of 1.1% compared to the same week last year.🌎 Brazil Adjusts Crop EstimatesBrazil's Conab (National Supply Company) has made slight adjustments to its 2024 corn and soybean crop estimates. The forecast for corn production stands at 119.8mmt, a small increase, with soybean production remaining at 166.1mmt. Exports for both crops have been adjusted slightly as well.💡 Farmers Turning to Generic ChemicalsWith a decline in farm income, farmers are increasingly turning to generic pesticides and fungicides to cut costs. This shift could financially impact large chemical companies like Bayer, Syngenta, and Corteva, particularly as patents on active ingredients expire. Bayer's stock reached a 20-year low due to these changes.🌧️ US Drought Conditions UpdateDrought conditions continue to persist across a large portion of the Corn Belt, although some relief came last week with rainfall across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Drought conditions in Nebraska and Southeast Wisconsin worsened, but significant improvements were noted in the Southern High Plains, including Kansas and Oklahoma.📦 USDA Flash SalesUS soybean export sales were reported at 176,000mt (6 million bushels) for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings the year-to-date soybean export sales up by 17% compared to last year.

*Correction at the top of the episode- Today's date is Thursday, November 14th.Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ Impact of Trump's Trade Policies on US AgricultureUS farmers are unsure about the effects of Donald Trump's trade policies on soybean exports and biodiesel production. While tariffs may limit soybean exports to China, they could also lead to increased demand for US soybean oil due to restrictions on imported oils, particularly for biodiesel production. There's optimism that Trump's policies might curb imported biofuel feedstocks from receiving 45Z tax credits, potentially expanding the US crushing capacity. However, higher construction costs due to tariffs may hinder this expansion.🌽 Flash Sales of CornUS corn exporters reported two flash sales on Wednesday:401,357mt (16 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.290,820mt (11 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the same delivery period.🇦🇷 Argentina's Grain Crop ForecastArgentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for the 2024/2025 soybean crop to 53mmt - 53.5mmt, up from a previous estimate of 52mmt - 53mmt. The increase was due to favorable rainfall in October, improving planting conditions. However, the exchange lowered its corn crop estimate to 50mmt - 51mmt, down from 51mmt - 52mmt due to drought earlier in the year. Additionally, the wheat crop estimate was cut to 18.8mmt, down from 19.5mmt, reflecting the ongoing dry conditions.🏢 ADM Faces Accounting TroublesADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) compliance chief, Ben Bard, is departing amid ongoing accounting issues. These accounting errors were discovered earlier this year and led to an SEC investigation, the resignation of the CFO, and $12 billion in market value losses. Bard was responsible for global compliance and internal audits. The company is still working to resolve these issues.📊 Consumer Prices in OctoberUS consumer prices rose 0.2% in October, bringing the annual increase to 2.6%, up slightly from 2.4% in September. Housing costs contributed significantly to the increase, rising by 4.9% over the past year. Futures markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another quarter point at its December meeting, despite concerns over potential inflationary pressures from Trump's policies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA HeadPresident-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting DelaysADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian LandRussia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions ImproveUS winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears CompletionThe US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline SlightlySoybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.📈 Flash Sales for US CornUS corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 South American Crop Prospects5:55 Drought in Cattle Country7:48 US Dollar and Commodities9:41 Bitcoin and Mystery Buyer(s)🌱 Brazilian Soybean and Corn Planting Ahead of Last Year's PaceSoybean planting in Brazil is progressing faster than last year. By last Thursday, 67% of the soybean area was planted, compared to 61% at the same time last year. AgRural reports that planting is moving smoothly across most of Brazil, with only a few areas affected by limited rainfall. First corn planting in Brazil is also ahead of schedule at 72% planted, although slightly below last year’s 76%. 🌱 Argentine Soybean PlantingArgentina’s soybean planting is expected to continue at a brisk pace, supported by recent rainfall across the country. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 8% of the anticipated soybean acreage has been planted, with 2.1 million acres planted over the past week. The forecast indicates hot and dry weather conditions in the coming days, which should allow for continued planting progress.🐄 US Cattle Herd Expansion Impacted by DroughtUS cattle herd rebuilding has slowed due to the persistence of drought in key cattle-producing regions. While many expected the herd to expand following spring moisture, 50% of US cattle are currently located in drought-stricken areas. This has kept producers from holding back bred females for expansion. Beef prices are surging to historic highs, driven by limited cattle supplies.💵 Dollar Strengthens Post-Trump VictoryThe US dollar has surged following Donald Trump's presidential victory. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.7% to its highest level since November 2023. Expectations that Trump's trade policies would strengthen the dollar have been a key driver, alongside the quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve last week. The yen and euro both saw declines against the dollar. With Trump’s proposed policies, the dollar could continue to appreciate, especially with trade war concerns.💰 Bitcoin Sets New Highs, Eyes $100,000Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Monday, surpassing $88,000. There is growing speculation that it could hit $100,000 by the end of the year, partly driven by Trump’s victory and the rise in CME futures trading for Bitcoin. Although Trump’s potential focus on cryptocurrencies is uncertain, the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is a key development for traders in the space.Conclusion:The Brazilian and Argentine planting seasons are progressing positively, which may affect global soybean supply. US cattle producers are facing challenges with expanding their herds due to drought, driving beef prices higher. The US Dollar and Bitcoin markets are reacting strongly to Trump’s victory, signaling potential continued volatility and growth in these assets. The agricultural market continues to respond to weather patterns and trade policy developments, with implications for both global grain production and US livestock markets. Stay tuned as these market developments unfold!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here's a summary of the latest developments affecting agriculture and commodities markets:🌾 USDA Cuts Corn and Soybean Production EstimatesUSDA reduced its soybean yield estimate to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa, cutting production by 121 million bushels. This was a surprise to the market. Demand estimates for soybeans were also lowered, particularly for crush and exports, though the reductions in supply were partially offset.The corn yield estimate was adjusted down slightly to 183.1 bpa from 183.8 bpa, with no change in demand estimates for corn.🌍 Trump Administration UpdateRobert Lighthizer, the former US Trade Representative, has not yet been invited to return to his post in the new administration, despite expectations. He played a key role in the China trade war and the renegotiation of NAFTA. Speculation continues that he may take on a different cabinet role, such as Treasury Secretary or Commerce Secretary. Meanwhile, China's top ambassador to the US has reiterated that tariffs benefit no one, signaling ongoing tensions in trade relations.🌱 California Climate Rules UpdateCalifornia's Air Resources Board approved new climate rules that could impact fuel prices significantly. The plan raises emissions reduction targets, supports zero-emission vehicle charging infrastructure, and removes incentives for methane capture on dairy farms. Environmental groups have criticized the move, especially its potential to increase fuel prices by up to 65 cents per gallon.📊 "The Funds" Shift to Net-Long in CornLarge money managers (the funds) moved to a net-long position in corn, buying 39,000 contracts. This is the first net-long position in corn since August 2023, a dramatic shift from a record net-short position earlier in the year. Funds were also net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat.📉 Moody's Lowers ADM Credit OutlookMoody's downgraded its credit outlook for ADM due to continued accounting errors. Despite the company maintaining an A2 rating, this downgrade reflects ongoing issues with financial reporting that have already led to significant market value loss for the company.🌧️ Weekend Precipitation in Hard Red Winter Wheat AreasSubstantial precipitation of 1" to 3" was recorded across hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. While this brings some relief, HRW wheat futures remain under technical pressure due to poor crop ratings, exacerbated by dry conditions earlier in the season.📦 Flash Sales Reported by USDAUS exporters reported several flash sales last Friday, including:107,000mt of soybeans to China132,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations200,490mt of corn to unknown destinationsThese sales contribute to strong export performance for both soybeans and corn, further supporting the market.Conclusion:USDA's crop adjustments and ongoing political developments add to the market's volatility. Traders are watching closely, as both domestic production and global trade dynamics shift. The Trump administration's potential moves on tariffs and trade, especially with China, could keep agriculture markets in flux. Stay tuned for updates on trade policies and crop conditions as the year progresses! 🌽🌍

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean Market RallySoybean oil futures have played a significant role in a recent rally in the soybean market. The December bean oil contract gained 4.3% on Thursday after a 3% increase on Wednesday. This surge is attributed to expected policies from a Trump administration that may lead to greater domestic usage of soybean oil, especially with anticipated tariffs on imports of used cooking oil and Brazilian sugar ethanol.Soybean futures also saw a sharp increase, with the January 2025 contract gaining nearly 23 cents per bushel.🇨🇳 China's $1.4 Trillion Stimulus PackageChina announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package aimed at local governments facing "hidden" debt strains. This move is seen as an effort to counterbalance the negative impacts of previous stimulus measures, particularly those from the 2008 global financial crisis. Traders had largely anticipated such measures to stabilize the economy.🌾 USDA Crop Production EstimatesPreliminary estimates from the USDA indicate an increase in corn acreage for next year, projected at 92 million acres, up from 90.7 million this year.Soybean acreage is forecasted to decrease to 85 million acres from 87.1 million, while wheat plantings are expected to remain stable at 46 million acres.The combined acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat is anticipated to fall to a three-year low.📊 Upcoming USDA ReportsThe USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report is set to be released today at 11:00 AM CST. Expectations include marginal downward revisions to corn and soybean yield estimates, which could lead to slight reductions in carryout estimates. Analysts believe demand estimates for corn, particularly for ethanol and exports, might be too low.🌍 Strong U.S. Export SalesU.S. corn export sales reached 2.8 million metric tons (109 million bushels), surpassing expectations and marking an 18% increase from the previous week.Net soybean sales were reported at 2 million metric tons (75 million bushels), down 10% from last week but up 10% from the previous four-week average, with China being the largest buyer. Net wheat sales stood at 374,700 metric tons (14 million bushels), with Mexico as the top buyer.🌧️ Drought Monitor UpdateRecent rainfall has improved drought conditions in many areas of the Corn Belt, especially in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin. However, drought conditions worsened in parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan.Current drought status:Corn: 71%Soybeans: 63%Winter Wheat: 57%Spring Wheat: 41%Cattle: 54%📉 Corteva Shares DeclineShares of Corteva plummeted by as much as 7% to $57.45 due to a lowered earnings outlook, driven by planting issues in Argentina caused by stunt disease and dry weather. Despite the decline, the company's stock is still up about 20% year-to-date.💵 Federal Reserve Rate CutThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, a decision that was unanimously approved and anticipated by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the cut aims to strengthen the economy and labor market while addressing inflation. There is speculation that another quarter-point cut may come in December, followed by a pause in January to assess the effects of current monetary policies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Election and Grain Markets3:04 SD Voters Shoot Down Pipeline4:34 US Dollar / Bitcoin8:06 Stock Market / Fed9:34 Ethanol ProductionHere's the latest update on the agricultural landscape and market reactions following Donald Trump's return to the presidency! 🇺🇸📈🌾 Uncertainty in Agricultural TradeWith Donald Trump back in the White House, concerns about a potential trade war with China are causing volatility in the grain markets. Initially, markets plummeted early Wednesday but managed to recover later in the day. During Trump's first term, U.S. soybean shipments to China dropped by approximately 79% due to tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Trump has recently proposed new tariffs, including a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Despite these concerns, a majority of farmers support Trump, hoping for a change to address high input costs, low prices, and increasing equipment expenses.🏞️ South Dakota Repeals Carbon Pipeline LawSouth Dakota voters have decided to repeal Referred Law 21, which regulated how counties managed carbon pipelines. Approximately 60% of the population supported the repeal. This decision is a setback for Summit Carbon Solutions, which planned to construct a pipeline across the state. Summit plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota later this month, but the repeal complicates the approval process.💵 Market Reactions Post-ElectionTrump's victory led to a surge in the dollar index, which rose 1.7% to 105.09, marking its highest level since early July. This increase is attributed to expectations around Trump's policies related to immigration, taxes, and tariffs.Bitcoin also experienced impressive gains, surpassing $75,000 and setting a new all-time high, driven by optimism regarding economic policies.The stock market reacted positively, with all three major indexes hitting record highs:Dow Jones: +3.6%S&P 500: +2.5%Nasdaq: +3%U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year yield rising to a four-month high of 4.479%. The VIX, which measures market volatility, fell to a six-week low of 16.27.📊 Ethanol Production Continues to RiseU.S. ethanol production increased for the sixth consecutive week, reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.1% week-on-week and 5% year-over-year.Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.02 million barrels, reflecting a 1.1% increase compared to the previous week and a 4.8% increase from last year.Implied gasoline demand fell by 3.6% compared to the previous week but was up 1.5% compared to the same week last year.ConclusionThe agricultural sector is navigating a complex landscape following the election, with potential trade implications and changing policies that could significantly impact farmers and markets. As developments unfold, staying informed will be crucial for stakeholders in the agricultural and financial sectors! 🌾📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Trump, Markets, Soybeans3:28 China and Other Commodities5:44 Farmer Sentiment7:27 ADM is in Trouble8:29 Who is Unknown?Here's the latest on the market and agricultural landscape following Donald Trump's election victory! 🗳️📊🇺🇸 Trump Secures the PresidencyDonald Trump has won the U.S. presidency, successfully capturing crucial battleground states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.Trump is also leading in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada as of early Wednesday morning.Contrary to predictions, he won Iowa by a notable 14 points.📈 Market ReactionsS&P 500 futures have surged over 2%, reaching fresh all-time highs, indicating strong investor confidence.The U.S. Dollar has strengthened sharply, while U.S. Treasuries are trading lower.Bitcoin has also reached new all-time highs overnight.Despite the election results, soybean prices are lower but not collapsing, showing some resilience.📉 Commodity PressureOther commodities are feeling pressure following Trump's victory, particularly due to concerns about new tariffs on Chinese imports, which could impact demand for commodities such as crude oil, copper, iron ore, steel, and soybeans.The strengthening dollar further contributes to the downward pressure on these commodity markets.🌾 US Farmer Sentiment RisesSurprisingly, U.S. farmer sentiment rose ahead of the election, with Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbing to 115 in October, a significant increase from September.This level hasn't been seen since December 2023. Farmers are cautiously optimistic about improving economic conditions but still express concerns about rising input costs and declining market prices.Over half of respondents indicated their financial situations are worse than last year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.📉 ADM Faces Accounting IssuesArcher-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is experiencing ongoing accounting irregularities, prompting revisions of its 2023 results and earlier quarters.The company's shares dropped 6%, marking their lowest levels since January 2021 and erasing about $1.6 billion in market value. Since January, ADM has lost nearly $12 billion in market value due to these accounting issues, which also led to the resignation of its CFO.The company is facing difficulties amid low crop prices and declining profits from soybean processing.🌽 Flash Sale ReportUSDA reported a flash sale of corn, with exporters selling 124,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.Cumulatively, corn export sales are up 41% compared to the same period last year.ConclusionThe market landscape is shifting rapidly in light of the election results, with significant implications for commodities, farmer sentiment, and agricultural economics. As developments unfold, staying informed will be crucial for na

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Election Volatility?2:39 Lower Soybean Yield Estimate6:38 US Harvest Update9:22 Brazil Planting Update10:54 US Grain Shipments11:51 Flash SalesHere’s the latest update on the agricultural market and economic dynamics!Dollar and Treasury Yield MovementsIncreased skepticism regarding a Trump victory has led to a weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields on Monday.The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped by up to 12 basis points to 4.26%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.7%.Polling data indicating a lead for Kamala Harris over Trump in Iowa triggered these market moves. Investors had previously positioned themselves for a Trump victory, expecting his policies to boost economic growth and inflation.Corn and Soybean Crop Forecasts AdjustedStoneX has lowered its forecasts for U.S. corn and soybean crops:Corn yield is now estimated at 183.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 184 bpa, with total production estimated at 15.193 billion bushels.Soybean yield is projected at 52.6 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa, with total production at 4.539 billion bushels.Harvest ProgressBoth corn and soybean harvests are nearing completion and are running ahead of schedule:Corn: 91% harvested nationally through Sunday, compared to 81% the previous week and 75% on average. This is the fastest harvest since 2012.Soybeans: 94% harvested nationally, compared to 89% the prior week and 85% on average. This pace ties with 2022, marking the fastest since 2005.Winter Wheat ConditionsWinter wheat conditions are currently the second worst since 1986, with only 41% rated good to excellent. Despite low ratings, only 23% of the crop is rated poor to very poor. The crop was 87% planted through Sunday, with forecasted rainfall expected to improve conditions.Brazilian Soybean PlantingBrazilian farmers are making significant progress in soybean planting:As of last Thursday, 54% of the expected area has been planted, up from 36% the prior week. This pace is the second fastest on record for this time of year.Export ActivityUSDA reported strong soybean shipments last week:2.2mmt (79mil bushels) of soybeans were inspected for export, down 18% from the previous week but slightly above last year's levels.Corn shipments totaled 779,078mt (31mil bushels), down 7.3% week-over-week but up 36% from last year.Wheat shipments fell to 193,523mt (7mil bushels), a 34% decline from the previous week but up 69% year-on-year.Flash Sales ActivityUSDA reported three flash sales on Monday:150,000 metric tons (6mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.120,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.132,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here’s the latest on the agricultural markets and trade dynamics! 🌾📊🌍 Trade Tensions and China's PositionWith the possibility of a trade war on the horizon, China is strategically positioned to impose tariffs on U.S. farm products.Since 2018, when China enacted a 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans, corn, and other items, there has been a significant shift toward imports from other countries, especially Brazil.U.S. soybean imports have decreased from 40% in 2016 to just 18% this year, while Brazil's share has surged to 76%.However, to secure supplies ahead of the upcoming election, Chinese buyers have increased U.S. soybean imports, which are up 9% year-over-year through September.Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have expressed intentions to address unfair trade practices by China.🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting UpdateBrazilian farmers are ahead of schedule in planting soybeans, with 52.9% of the expected area planted, up from 50.6% last year.StoneX has raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), an increase from its previous estimate of 165.03 mmt.The first corn crop is projected at 24.9 mmt, and the second at 101.5 mmt, totaling 128.5 mmt for all corn production.🌧️ Weather Patterns in the USThe U.S. radar is showing active weather this morning with rain moving across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.Heavy rain totals were reported over the weekend in Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, with additional rainfall expected in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin.The forecast indicates a wet pattern for the central U.S. Corn Belt, which is expected to help improve the situation on the Mississippi River. Projections suggest levels will rise above the "restrictive" zone by next Tuesday.📈 Funds and Market Position"The Funds" significantly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week:As of October 29, large money managers were net buyers of 52,000 corn contracts, marking the smallest net short position since August 2023.Conversely, funds were net sellers of 4,000 soybean contracts and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat.📦 Flash Sales ActivityThe USDA reported several flash sales on Friday:132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.781,322 metric tons (31 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico, with 715,800 metric tons (28 million bushels) for the 2024/2025 marketing year and 65,532 metric tons (3 million bushels) for 2025/2026.Additionally, 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations and 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil sold to India.ConclusionAs trade dynamics evolve and weather conditions play a critical role in harvest outcomes, the agricultural market remains sensitive to both domestic and international influences. Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly impact future pricing and supply chains! 🌱📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📉📈 Soybean Futures Rebound After DeclineSoybean futures have closed higher for two straight sessions following declines ahead of November First Notice Day:Farmers have been weighing whether to price or roll their November basis contracts, leading to some market volatility.A bounce after First Notice Day is typical, and the Jan25 contract managed to avoid retesting its August low.Private estimates suggest that "the funds" remain net short by about 60k contracts as of yesterday’s close.💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen in the Corn BeltThe USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains:75% of the Corn Belt is experiencing some level of drought, up from 66% last week.This is the highest level of drought impact on corn and soybean production since 2012. In the High Plains, minimal rainfall and above-normal temperatures have expanded drought conditions.🔢 US Areas Experiencing Drought:Corn: 81%Soybeans: 73%Winter Wheat: 62%Spring Wheat: 40%Cattle: 62%🚜 Strong US Soybean and Corn Export SalesUS export sales for soybeans and corn showed strength last week:Soybean sales: 2.3mmt (84 million bushels), up 6% from last week and 39% from the prior 4-week average. China was the largest buyer. Corn sales: 2.3mmt (92 million bushels), despite a 35% weekly decline, were still 7% above the 4-week average, with unknown destinations leading purchases.Wheat sales: 411,400mt (15 million bushels), down 23% from last week and 14% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. 🌱 Brazilian Crop Outlook: Record Soybean Production ExpectedRabobank and Conab have both released forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop:Rabobank: Expects 1.5% increase in planted acres to 116 million acres, with a record crop of 167mmt, up 9.2% from last season.Conab: Projects a slightly higher 2.8% increase in planted acres.Despite current dry conditions slowing planting, Rabobank has not revised its production estimate. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn crop is expected to reach 125mmt, a 2.5% increase over last season.🌞 Argentina’s Soybean Shift Amid Hot and Dry ConditionsThe USDA’s office in Argentina estimates a 52mmt soybean crop, slightly higher than the USDA’s 51mmt forecast:Argentine farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans due to concerns over stunt disease and tighter margins.With lower production costs, soybeans are seen as a safer bet this season.Hot and dry conditions through December could impact production, but increased soybean crush is expected due to higher production and imports.🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Cake & MealThe USDA reported a flash sale of 150,000mt of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year:So far this year, 926,000mt of soybean cake and meal have been sold for delivery through flash sales.🏢 US Jobless Claims Fall to Five-Month LowUS jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since May:Earlier spikes were driven by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and a strike at Boeing.Job cuts totaled 55,600 in October, down 24% from September. Despite this, year-to-date cuts are 3.7% higher than the same period last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 RFK Jr USDA Overhaul5:17 MF Global Anniversary9:04 Rains are Back11:45 Ethanol Production is STRONG12:59 China, Russia, Soybeans13:48 Biofuel Money14:34 Flash Sales🚜 Potential Role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in USDARobert F. Kennedy Jr. has stated that if Donald Trump is elected president, he has been promised control of the USDA. Kennedy aims to overhaul U.S. agricultural policy, focusing on benefits for farmers, consumers, and the environment.His proposals include:Providing relief to small farmers.Promoting sustainable and regenerative farming practices.Banning certain agricultural chemicals.For more details, watch his promotional video on YouTube.📅 Anniversary of MF Global's BankruptcyToday marks 13 years since MF Global went bankrupt, one of the largest clearing firms in the futures industry. CEO Jon Corzine misused customer funds for risky sovereign debt trades, leading to insolvency. The bankruptcy was the 11th largest in U.S. history, leaving many customers with missing funds.🌧️ Return of Rains to the US Corn BeltRain has returned to the US Corn Belt, with active radar over South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Recent rainfall has helped alleviate dry conditions, but 76% of U.S. corn areas are still experiencing drought.Projections indicate little improvement in Mississippi River water levels through mid-November.🌽 Ethanol Production UpdateUS ethanol production rose for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 1.082 million barrels per day:This marks a 4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks are at 21.8 million barrels, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week but an increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand is also up by 3.6% compared to the previous week.🇨🇳 China's Shift Towards Russian SoybeansChina is looking to increase its reliance on Russian soybeans to diversify suppliers and reduce dependency on U.S. imports. Despite Russia producing only 6.8 million metric tons of soybeans in the last season (less than 2% of global production), China imported 99.4 million metric tons of soybeans last season.🌱 USDA's Biofuel InitiativeThe USDA is distributing $239 million to enhance biofuel availability:$39 million in grants will help construct and improve biofuel infrastructure across 18 states. $200 million is allocated for developing bio-based technologies, aimed at promoting energy independence and providing cleaner fuel options.📦 Flash Sales ReportUSDA reported multiple flash sales:132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.273,048 metric tons (11 million bushels) of corn sold

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 CME is an FCM4:05 Soybeans and FND6:30 Corn Belt Rains Return7:36 China Stimulus Details8:39 Gold ATH10:00 Bitcoin RallyHere's the latest update on the CME's new futures commission merchant, market conditions, and key economic developments! 📈🌾📊 CME's New Futures Commission Merchant (FCM)The CME has received approval to establish a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). This FCM will enable market participants—traders, farmers, funds, etc.—to buy and sell futures directly on the CME marketplace, bypassing traditional brokers like RJO, StoneX, and ADM Investor Services. Critics argue this creates a conflict of interest since the CME would operate as both a futures exchange and a brokerage, potentially leading to excessive control over risk management and self-regulation. Proponents believe this move will streamline processes, lower costs for investors, and eliminate market inefficiencies.🌱 Soybean Futures UpdateFirst Notice Day for November soybean futures is tomorrow, with farmers needing to price or roll contracts by the close of business today. The days leading up to First Notice often see weakness in both futures and spreads, especially in years with large crops, though a "collapse" has not occurred this year.🌧️ Weather Forecast for the Corn BeltRain is expected to return to the US Corn Belt this week, with light rain already observed in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. The 5-day Euro model indicates widespread rainfall across much of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Heavier rains are projected during the 5-10 day period, which should help alleviate some drought conditions. There may be minimal improvement to Mississippi River levels around November 9th.🇨🇳 China's Fiscal Package ProposalChina is considering a fiscal package of over $1.4 trillion to revive its economy:The package could represent more than 8% of China's GDP.If Trump wins the presidency, a larger fiscal package might be announced due to anticipated economic challenges.💰 Gold and Bitcoin UpdatesGold reached an all-time high of $2,766.73 per ounce, buoyed by falling job openings and investor focus on the upcoming US elections.The precious metal has seen over a 33% increase this year, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin surged to over $73,000, approaching its all-time high of $73,750: Factors contributing to Bitcoin's rise include expectations of a soft economic landing, stock market gains, increasing demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.ConclusionAs market dynamics shift with the CME's new FCM, farmers are navigating challenges with soybean contracts amid weather fluctuations and economic developments in China. The highs in gold and Bitcoin reflect investor sentiment amidst ongoing global tensions. Keep an eye on these trends

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here's the latest update on soybean purchases, harvest progress, winter wheat conditions, and export sales! 🌾📉🥜 Soybean Purchases DeclineMajor grain traders like Cargill and Bunge have scaled back soybean purchases due to uncertainty surrounding the 45Z tax credit.Biodiesel producers, who typically secure over 80% of their feedstocks for the first quarter by mid-October, have only obtained about 10% of those this year.Delays in guidance from the Treasury Department for the upcoming tax credit, set to begin in January, are causing concern. The outcome of the upcoming election could also influence the future of this subsidy.🌽 Rapid Harvest ProgressThe US corn crop is progressing quickly, with 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday, compared to 65% the previous week and 64% on average. This marks the fastest harvest since 2012.States that have harvested 85% or more include: Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.The US soybean harvest is also advanced, with 89% harvested nationally, up from 81% the prior week and 78% on average. This pace is the fastest since 2010.States with 95% or more harvested include: Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.🌾 Winter Wheat ConditionsWinter wheat conditions are reported as the second worst on record, with only 38% rated as good to excellent, below the 43% average.This year’s ratings are worse across nearly all states compared to last year, with the exception of California, Kansas, Michigan, and Oregon.As of Sunday, 80% of the winter wheat crop is planted, up from 73% the previous week but below the 84% average.🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean PlantingBrazilian farmers have made progress in soybean planting, reaching 36% of the expected area as of last Thursday, compared to 40% last year.Despite lagging behind last year's pace, the area planted last week saw an 18% gain, with Mato Grosso accounting for half of the newly planted acres thanks to consistent rainfall.52% of Brazil's first corn crop has been planted, slightly down from 53% last year.🚢 US Export SalesUS soybean shipments declined last week but remain robust:2.4mmt (88 million bushels) were inspected for export, down 6.1% from the previous week but up 17% year-over-year, with over 60% going to China.Corn shipments totaled 823,664mt (32 million bushels), a drop of 18% from the previous week but an increase of 52% compared to last year.Wheat shipments came in at 248,534mt (9 million bushels), down 7.4% from the prior week but up 25% year-over-year.📦 Flash Sales UpdateUSDA reported two flash sales of corn on Monday:124,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.120,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.Since the beginning of October, exporters have sold 5.4mmt (211 million bushels) of corn via flash sales.ConclusionAs harvests progress rapidly, traders are adapting to changes in soybean purchasing and the implications of potential tax credit changes. Meanwhile, strong export sales are supporting the market amid ongoing challenges related to drought conditions and planting delays. 🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here’s a rundown of the latest developments regarding the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, weather conditions in the Corn Belt, crude oil prices, export sales, and cattle on feed reports! 🌽💧📜 South Dakota Pipeline Law VoteSouth Dakota voters will decide on Referred Law 21 next week.Support for the law would allow counties to impose surcharges on certain pipeline companies, providing tax relief to property owners affected by pipelines.Opponents argue the law is deceptive and fails to address eminent domain issues, with concerns that it serves as a buyout for pipeline construction on their land.Summit Carbon Solutions plans to reapply for a permit regardless of the vote outcome.🌧️ Rain Expected in the Corn BeltRain is forecasted to return to the US Corn Belt starting Wednesday and Thursday.Areas of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin are expected to see accumulated rainfall.Widespread rainfall is anticipated during the 5-10 day period, which is crucial as 73% of US corn-growing areas are currently experiencing drought, the highest level since 2012.Harvesting of corn and soybeans has been rapid due to dry conditions, and river levels on the Mississippi are expected to remain low through November 11th.🛢️ Crude Oil Futures DeclineCrude oil futures are trading sharply lower, with the Dec24 WTI contract down nearly $4/barrel early in the week.Recent Israeli attacks have focused on avoiding key Iranian oil infrastructure, maintaining Iran's oil industry operations as normal.📦 US Export Sales StrongUSDA reported flash sales on Friday:116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the same marketing year.US corn export sales for the current year are 34% ahead of last year's pace, with a modest projected year-over-year increase of 1.4%.📈 Funds Adjust PositionsFunds have trimmed their net short positions in the corn market:CFTC data shows that large money managers were net buyers of 20,000 contracts of corn, while they sold 18,000 contracts of soybeans and 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat.🐄 Cattle on Feed ReportThe latest Cattle on Feed report shows that as of October 1, the number of cattle on feed is at 100% of year-ago levels, matching expectations.September placements were at 98% of year-ago levels, slightly above estimates, likely due to drought limiting grazing conditions.Marketings last month were 102% of year-ago levels, indicating stable market fundamentals providing ongoing price support.ConclusionThe upcoming vote on pipeline regulation, expected rainfall in the Corn Belt, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and strong export sales are pivotal factors currently influencing agricultural markets. As farmers deal with rapid harvests and storage challenges, attention remains on the economic and environmental implications of these developments. 🌾📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📉 Soybean Futures DeclineSoybean futures closed lower yesterday, despite reaching fresh two-week highs.The nearby Nov24 contract peaked at $10.12 per bushel but settled around $9.96.Downward pressure is continuing this morning, with calendar spreads also reversing after a brief rally.First Notice Day for Nov24 futures is next Thursday, prompting farmers to price or roll contracts by Wednesday.🌧️ Drought Conditions in the Corn BeltUSDA's weekly drought monitor shows:While some areas received rainfall, much of the Corn Belt experienced below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.Approximately 88% of the Corn Belt is now facing some level of drought, a significant increase from 11% just three months ago.Specific drought levels:Corn: 76%Soybeans: 68%Winter Wheat: 58%Spring Wheat: 37%Cattle: 59%🚀 Strong US Export SalesLast week's export sales were robust:Net soybean sales reached 2.2mmt (79 million bushels), the second-largest weekly total in over a year, with China as the largest buyer.Net corn sales were reported at 3.6mmt (142 million bushels), a 62% increase from the previous week, with Mexico as the largest buyer.Net wheat sales were at 532,900mt (20 million bushels), up 6% from the prior week.📦 Additional Flash Sales ReportedUSDA announced further flash sales on Thursday:227,600mt (9 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.165,000mt (6 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations.198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations.🌍 Geopolitical Concerns from J.P. MorganJamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, expressed concerns that World War III may have begun.He emphasizes that geopolitical risks—including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—pose a greater threat to the global economy than previously anticipated.Dimon believes that the potential for nuclear conflict represents a significant danger, surpassing even the risks of climate change.ConclusionThe agricultural market is facing downward pressure amid a rapidly progressing harvest, significant drought conditions, and robust export sales. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape presents rising concerns that could impact global economic stability. As markets react to these developments, it will be essential for stakeholders to stay informed and agile in their decision-making. 🌾📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US / Brazil / China2:42 BRICS Grain Exchange?5:19 Ethanol Production is STRONG9:07 Argentina Weather10:26 Flash SalesHere’s a summary of the latest developments in international trade, agriculture, and ethanol production! 🌍🌾🌐 US-Brazil Relations and Trade ConcernsThe Biden administration is advising Brazil against joining China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the Bloomberg New Economy conference in São Paulo, Biden's trade negotiator emphasized the risks of such a partnership. While some Brazilian leaders view the BRI as an opportunity for new investments, others warn it could harm relations with the US and EU. Brazil's ag minister argues for joining the initiative to counter protectionist measures from the US and EU.🌾 BRICS Grain Exchange ProposalRussia is pushing for a BRICS grain exchange to stabilize trade among its member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). This exchange aims to protect against price volatility and could extend to trading other commodities like gas, metals, and oil. A new cross-border payment system among BRICS nations is also under consideration, which would bypass the US dollar for easier trade.🌽 US Ethanol ProductionUS ethanol production reached its second-highest level for this time of year, with a weekly output of 1.08 million barrels per day. This figure is up 3.7% from the previous week and 4.4% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are reported at 22.2 million barrels, reflecting a slight decrease from the prior week but an increase compared to last year. Implied gasoline demand has also seen an uptick of 4.3% over the last four weeks compared to the same period last year.🌧️ Rainfall Benefits in ArgentinaArgentina has received much-needed rainfall, with major farming areas seeing between 1 to 3.5 inches. This moisture is critical for the upcoming wheat harvest in November and will help resume delayed planting of corn and soybeans.The Rosario Grain Exchange has revised its estimates, projecting the wheat crop at 19.5 million metric tons and corn production between 51 million to 52 million metric tons.📦 Flash Sales in US Ag ExportsUSDA reported significant flash sales on Wednesday:130,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the same marketing year.259,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.ConclusionThe global agricultural landscape is shifting with significant implications for trade dynamics, especially concerning US-Brazil relations and the potential impacts of the BRI. Meanwhile, US ethanol production is robust, and Argentina's rainfall is promising for upcoming crops. Flash sales in US ag exports indicate continued interest and demand, particularly from China, despite market uncertainties. 🌾📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🥜 US Soybean Exports and Market ConcernsUS soybean exporters are racing to ship products ahead of a potential DT presidency.Traders fear that if DT is elected, China could reinstate tariffs on US soybean imports, prompting some Chinese importers to shift to Brazilian soybeans starting January.This pivot is narrowing the already limited US soybean export window.Soybean export premiums have reached their highest level in 14 months due to low water levels on the Mississippi River, better demand prospects, and commercial entities potentially being caught off guard.🌾 Cargill Restructuring and Executive ChangesTwo senior executives at Cargill will retire at the end of the year as part of a restructuring effort.This follows a disappointing fiscal year where less than one-third of its business units met earnings projections, resulting in profits falling to $2.48 billion, the lowest in nearly ten years.Cargill's profits have been pressured by bumper global crops and a significant decline in US cowherd numbers, now at their lowest in seven decades.💱 Goldman Sachs' Predictions on Currency FluctuationsGoldman Sachs predicts that the euro could drop by 10% against the dollar if DT implements tariff hikes and significant domestic tax cuts.Similarly, the yuan could fall by 12% under the same conditions.Analysts believe these changes could benefit the US dollar, especially amid strong US earnings and speculation that the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on future rate cuts.🌾 Russian Wheat Production OutlookThe 2025 Russian wheat crop is projected to be comparable to this year's production, with estimates ranging from 80 million to 85 million metric tons.Unfavorable weather conditions are expected to impact next year's crop, with a predicted reduction in wheat acreage and yields.☀️ Harvesting and Weather ForecastUS corn and soybean harvests are anticipated to wrap up quickly, with a mostly dry forecast for the Corn Belt this week.Some areas in Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois may see limited rainfall, but overall conditions are expected to remain dry.Better rain accumulation is forecast for the first week of November, which may benefit the final stages of harvest.Currently, the Mississippi River is nearly 9 feet below normal, which could further restrict shipping in the coming days.🚢 USDA Flash SalesUSDA reported a significant flash sale on Tuesday:US exporters sold 359,500 metric tons (14 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, with Mexico expected to be the top buyer of US corn this season.SummaryThe agricultural landscape is shifting with increased urgency in US soybean exports, ongoing market dynamics amid political uncertainties, and notable changes within major companies like Cargill. The forecasted weather patterns may affect the remaining harvests, while the Mississippi River's low water levels pose challenges for transportation. As markets react to potential tariffs and shifting demand, US producers are navigating a complex and evolving environment. 🌍🚜

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here’s the latest on the corn and soybean harvests, storage challenges, and international market dynamics! 🌽🌱🚜 Rapid Harvesting and Storage ShortageCorn and soybean harvests are progressing rapidly, with corn at 65% harvested and soybeans at 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday.This pace is the second fastest for corn in the last ten years and the fastest for soybeans since 2010.The quick harvest is leading to storage shortages, as many farmers are still holding last season's grain while waiting for better prices.Due to limited bin space, some grain handlers are storing corn outside, forcing farmers to sell their crops at near four-year low prices.USDA projects record national average yields for both crops this year, exacerbating storage issues.💰 Chinese Economic StimulusIn an effort to bolster its struggling economy, Chinese banks have cut lending rates:These rate cuts follow the People's Bank of China's decision to lower rates at the end of September.The quarter-point reductions are aimed at encouraging borrowing among households and businesses, particularly to support the faltering property market.If economic growth continues to slow, further rate cuts may be on the horizon.🌧️ Brazilian Soybean Planting DelaysBrazilian soybean planting is lagging, with only 18% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 30% last year.The slow pace is particularly notable in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean-producing state.Recent rainfall is expected to facilitate faster planting in the coming weeks.As of last Thursday, 48% of Brazil’s first corn crop had been planted, up from 46% last year.📈 Strong Soybean ShipmentsUS soybean shipments remained robust last week, with 2.4 million metric tons (89 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending October 17.This represents a 28% increase from the previous week but is down 7.4% compared to the same week last year.Corn shipments also saw significant growth at 1 million metric tons (39 million bushels), which was a 97% increase from the previous week and 112% higher than the same week last year.However, wheat shipments fell below pre-report expectations at 268,375 metric tons (10 million bushels), down 29% from the previous week but up 58% year-on-year.📉 Flash Sales and Export ActivityUSDA reported several flash sales on Monday:169,926 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 ma

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here’s the latest update on US agricultural exports, market dynamics, and the broader economic context! 🌾📈📊 Strong US Export SalesNet corn sales reached 2.2 million metric tons (88 million bushels), marking the highest level in over a year and a half and exceeding pre-report expectations.This figure represents an 82% increase from the previous week and a substantial rise from the prior 4-week average.The largest corn buyer for the week was unknown destinations.Net soybean sales totaled 1.7 million metric tons (63 million bushels), up 35% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average.China emerged as the largest buyer for the week.Net wheat sales were also robust at 504,100 metric tons (19 million bushels), which was at the upper end of expectations.This print represented a 16% increase from the previous week and a 57% rise from the prior 4-week average, with Mexico being the largest buyer.🚨 Flash Sales ReportUSDA reported several flash sales on Friday:21,000 metric tons of soybean oil sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.125,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the same marketing year.292,800 metric tons (11 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.📉 Increased Short Positions by FundsAccording to CFTC data, as of October 15, "the Funds" have increased their net short position in the corn market:They were net sellers of 73,000 contracts, the first instance of net selling in two months.Net sellers of 22,000 contracts of soybeans, marking the first time since mid-August that they’ve shorted soybean contracts.Conversely, funds were net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat.🌧️ Rainfall in BrazilRain is forecasted to accumulate in Brazil this week, with:Light rains occurring in eastern soybean areas early this morning, followed by better coverage later in the week.Both Euro and GFS models predict above-normal rainfall for many key soybean regions over the next 10 days, except for the far southern parts of the country.💼 Economic InsightsThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) is urging global economies to limit fiscal spending:They project that global public debt will reach $100 trillion by year-end, primarily driven by the US and China.The IMF warns that if spending does not slow, public debt could equal the size of the global economy in the coming years.Interest costs on the US national debt have reached their highest level in nearly 30 years:The US Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments in the last fiscal year, averaging about $2.4 billion a day.This amount represents 3.06% of GDP, the highest ratio since 1996, and has surpassed Defense Department spending for the first time in history.In SummaryThe agricultural export landscape shows promising activity with robust sales, while funds are adjusting their positions amid market volatility. Meanwhile, economic pressures mount as the IMF calls for fiscal restraint and rising interest costs add complexity to the national debt situation. The evolving weather patterns in Brazil also indicate potential impacts on soybean planting and yield, making it a critical period for market watchers. 🌱🌍

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌊 Improving Basis Bids at the US GulfCorn and soybean basis bids at the US Gulf have shown improvement this week.Soybean basis bids have become notably strong due to:Improved export demand.Falling water levels on the Mississippi River.CIF October soybean barges are currently bid at 112 cents over the Nov24 CBOT contract, marking the strongest level since August 2023.Corn demand, especially from Mexico, has also improved, contributing to the basis enhancement.🌧️ Drought Conditions UpdateThe latest weekly drought monitor data indicates that:The Corn Belt experienced mostly dry conditions last week, with some rain in the northern regions.Drought conditions improved in northern Minnesota, but overall, nearly 83% of the Corn Belt is facing some level of drought.The High Plains are still under a hot and dry weather pattern, with worsening drought conditions from South Dakota to Oklahoma.Drought Statistics:Corn: 62%Soybeans: 54%Winter Wheat: 52%Spring Wheat: 32%Cattle: 52%🌱 Oversupply of Soybeans Amid Biofuel ProductionDespite increased biofuel production (up 400% since 2021), soybean supplies are piling up due to:Big crop yields and reduced export demand for US soybeans.An influx of imported used cooking oil used for biofuel production.Low water levels on the Mississippi River and the unexpected closure of ADM's crush plant in Iowa are further pressuring the soybean market.🛢️ Ethanol Production UpdateUS ethanol production increased for the third consecutive week, reaching:1.04 million barrels per day, a 3.8% increase from the same week last year.Ethanol stocks reached 22.3 million barrels, the highest for this time of year.However, implied gasoline demand saw a significant drop of 11% compared to last week, despite being slightly up from the same week last year.📈 Flash Sales and Export ActivityUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:197,180 metric tons (8 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.101,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.Since the start of the week, exporters have sold a total of 2.3 million metric tons (89 million bushels) of corn through flash sales.In Summary-The agricultural landscape is marked by improved basis bids, ongoing drought challenges, and a complex interplay of supply and demand in the soybean and corn markets. As harvest progresses and weather patterns evolve, all eyes will be on how these factors will influence market dynamics in the coming weeks! 🌾📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Here’s an engaging overview of the latest developments in agriculture, commodities, and the economic landscape! 🚜📉📉 Job Cuts at John DeereJohn Deere announced job cuts impacting approximately 300 workers in Iowa and Illinois. This decision is driven by:Reduced demand for farm machinery amid lower grain prices.Earlier this year, the company had already laid off over 2,000 workers due to similar concerns.🌽 USDA Reports Major Flash Sale of CornIn a significant development:US exporters sold 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of corn to Mexico.1.04 million metric tons (41 million bushels) are for the 2024/2025 marketing year.579,120 metric tons (23 million bushels) for the 2025/2026 marketing year.Additionally, there were sales of 332,000 metric tons (13 million bushels) of corn and 175,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.These strong sales reflect end users recognizing value in US grains, potentially providing a price floor in the market. 📈🌧️ Brazilian Weather Pattern ShiftsBrazil is expected to experience:Above-normal rainfall over the next 10 days, signaling the return of a typical wet pattern.This shift should facilitate faster soybean planting, which had been delayed due to previous dry conditions.📉 Soybean Futures Decline Amid Tariff ConcernsSoybean futures took a hit:The Nov24 soybean contract closed down 1.3% at approximately $9.78 per bushel, marking its lowest level since September 10.Traders are apprehensive about potential increased tariffs, especially with a likely Trump presidency, which could shift China’s reliance from US soybeans to Brazilian exports.📈 Bitcoin Surges with Political ShiftsAmidst the political landscape:Bitcoin soared to around $67,869, its highest since late July.The surge is attributed to the growing probability of Donald Trump being elected president, which is seen as favorable for the cryptocurrency market.Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up over 60%, approaching its all-time high of $73,798.In SummaryThese developments highlight the interconnectedness of agriculture, trade policies, and financial markets. With the harvest season underway and potential shifts in global markets, all eyes will be on how these factors unfold in the coming weeks! 🌾💹

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📊 Study Warns: Tariff-Induced Trade War Could Harm US FarmersA new economic study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association highlights the potential negative impact of a US-China trade war on US farmers. The study predicts:US soybean exports to China could plummet by 52%, while corn exports could decline by 84%. 🌱Brazil and Argentina are poised to benefit by capturing the lost market share as they compete with US exports.Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are considering tariffs to combat China's alleged unfair trade practices. 🌱 NOPA Releases Record Soybean Crush DataThe National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that:The US soybean crush for September reached 177.3 million bushels, marking a record high for the month and up 12.2% from August and 7.2% from September 2023. 🎉Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.07 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2014.🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Crop Expected to SoarAccording to Conab (Brazil's version of USDA), Brazil's soybean crop is projected to reach a record 166.1 million metric tons, reflecting a 12.7% increase from last season. Despite some delays in planting due to dry conditions, soybean acreage is expected to grow by 2.8%, the smallest increase in six years. 🌾🚜 US Soybean and Corn Harvests Progressing RapidlyUS farmers are making significant headway in their harvests:67% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 47% the prior week and 51% on average.The US corn crop is 47% harvested, ahead of the 30% the previous week and in line with averages.States like Arkansas, Iowa, and Minnesota have led the way with over 70% of their soybean crop harvested. 🌽🌾 US Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind ScheduleWinter wheat planting is at 64% nationally, just behind the 66% average. The crop is 35% emerged, showing good progress compared to the 25% from the previous week.📦 US Soybean and Corn Shipments DisappointingUSDA reported that:1.6 million metric tons of soybeans were inspected for export, down 3.1% from last week and 25% from the same week last year.Corn shipments were even lower than expected, at 430,323 metric tons, a drop of 55% from the previous week.📦 Flash Sales AnnouncedUS exporters secured multiple flash sales on Tuesday:131,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.120,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat were sold to Mexico for the same delivery period.Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 📈✨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 RFK Jr and Pipelines2:41 Corn and Soybean Futures Decline4:05 Fast Harvest Pace7:34 Brazil Planting Update8:52 Oil FallsHere’s a lively summary of the latest happenings in the market and some notable commentary from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.! 🌱📉🎥 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Critiques Carbon PipelinesRobert F. Kennedy Jr. has been vocal against carbon pipelines, stating that they’re "far from green." In a recent YouTube video, he criticized carbon capture and the tax incentives provided to large companies, arguing that these pipelines transfer wealth from working people to wealthy investors and cost taxpayers billions. He raised concerns about safety and eminent domain issues as well. Kennedy, who has endorsed Donald Trump for President, continues to stir conversation around these topics. 🌽 Market Update: Corn & Soybean Futures DeclineCorn and soybean futures took a dip on Monday:The Dec24 corn contract lost nearly 8 cents per bushel, closing near $4.08, marking its lowest daily close since September 20th. 📉The Nov24 soybean contract dropped nearly 10 cents, closing below $10 for the first time since late August.Harvest pressures and USDA projections of burdensome supplies have contributed to this price drop. Large money managers have shifted from covering their net short positions to shorting the market again. 📉🚜 Rapid US Corn & Soybean HarvestAs of Sunday, the USDA reported that:30% of the US corn crop and 47% of the US soybean crop had been harvested. 🌾With another week of dry weather expected, these numbers are likely to rise significantly next week.Farmers are managing overage bushels due to "big" crops that they cannot store, which could further pressurize the marketplace. Additionally, the Mississippi River is experiencing restrictive water levels again amid ongoing dry weather. 🚢🇧🇷 Brazil's Slow Soybean PlantingBrazilian soybean planting is lagging behind, with only 8.2% of the expected area planted, compared to 17% at the same time last year. The slow pace is primarily in Mato Grosso, where farmers are waiting for consistent rainfall. 🌧️ AgRural also reported that 42% of Brazil's first corn crop had been planted as of last Thursday, slightly up from 41% last year.🛢️ OPEC Cuts Oil Demand ForecastOPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for this year and 2025, projecting an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 5.3% lower than previous estimates. This adjustment is due to a decline in global fuel use. OPEC plans to restore 2.2 million barrels per day of halted crude production by December. 📉Stay tuned for more updates as the markets evolve! 🚀✨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE ReportThe USDA released its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, and there were no major surprises! 🎉 Here are the highlights:Corn: The national yield estimate was increased to 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa), while acreage remained unchanged. 🌽Soybeans: The national yield estimate decreased to 53.1 bpa, with acreage also unchanged. 🫘Wheat: The carryout estimate was reduced due to lower yields, lower beginning stocks, and increased feed usage. 📉💵 China's Finance Minister BriefingChina’s Finance Minister held a briefing over the weekend, but it lacked specific details about new stimulus measures. Analysts had hoped for up to $283 billion in new fiscal stimulus, but without specifics, investor concerns are likely to grow, especially following slower-than-expected consumer price increases in September. 📉🤔🛍️ "The Funds" Trim Net Short PositionsGood news! "The Funds" have drastically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of October 8:Corn: Short positions are down to 35k contracts from a record 356k in July. 📉Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 13k contracts, reducing their short position to 19k contracts from a peak of 183k in July. 🛒However, funds were net sellers of 7k contracts of SRW wheat last week. 📊🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting LaggingBrazilian soybean planting is lagging behind last year, with 9.3% of the expected area planted compared to 17.4% at the same time last year. Hot and dry conditions have been a hurdle, but the forecast is looking favorable for rainfall in the coming weeks! ☔🌾 USDA estimates this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 169 million metric tons (mmt).🌾 Russia's Wheat Export LimitsRussia is trying to limit wheat exports with a proposed price floor and an increase in its export duty by 41%. This move is aimed at curbing exports as domestic inflation soars. Russia recently lowered its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 130 mmt due to unfavorable growing conditions. 📉🚫🌊 Environmental Concerns in Tampa BayHazardous water from a fertilizer waste facility overflowed into Tampa Bay last week due to excessive rainfall during Hurricane Milton. The overflow involved more than 17,500 gallons of water, but Mosaic reports that the water quality impacts are expected to be minimal. 🌊⚠️📦 Flash Sales ReportedUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:Soybeans: 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🛳️Corn: 577,928 mt (23 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌽Stay tuned for more updates, and let's keep the momentum going! 🚀✨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍📈 Trade Concerns, USDA Report, and Global Wheat Supply Woes | US Export Sales and Drought Monitor Updates🌍 US Chamber of Commerce: Trump and Harris Could Harm TradeThe US Chamber of Commerce voiced concerns that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be detrimental for US trade:Trump’s planned tariffs: A 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% on all other imports would raise inflation and hurt US companies that rely on imported components.Harris’ stance on trade: Harris has been anti-trade in the past, voting against free trade deals due to their lack of attention to climate change. She argues these agreements lead to lost US manufacturing jobs, despite opening global markets for US goods.🌾 US Export Sales Mostly As ExpectedLast week’s US export sales data came in largely as expected:Corn sales: 1.2mmt (48 million bushels), down 27% from the prior week. Unknown destinations were the largest buyer.Soybean sales: 1.3mmt (46 million bushels), down 12% week-over-week, with China as the largest buyer.Wheat sales: 443,600mt (16 million bushels), down 2% from last week but up 31% from the 4-week average, with Mexico as the top buyer. 📉🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Report ComingThe USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CST. Here's what traders are watching:Corn: A potential reduction in US corn carryout due to lower-than-expected September 1st stocks. Strong export and ethanol data could lead to upward adjustments in demand.Soybeans: Minimal changes are expected in production estimates.Global balance sheets: Adjustments to both supply and demand are possible given current global conditions.🌾 Global Wheat Production DeclinesGlobal wheat production is expected to decline this season due to drought conditions in major producing countries like Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the US:Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea are further exacerbating supply concerns, driving Chicago wheat futures to their highest levels in four months.The USDA projects world wheat ending stocks to fall to a nine-year low of 257.2mmt this season. 🌍💧 US Drought Monitor UpdateThe USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt:Corn: 49% of the crop is experiencing drought conditions.Soybeans: 43% impacted by drought.Winter wheat: 47% affected, as well as 29% of spring wheat.Cattle: 43% of cattle areas are facing drought.📊 US Economic Data: A Mixed BagThursday’s economic data revealed both positive and negative trends:CPI: Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. Year-over-year inflation reached 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021.Jobless claims: Weekly claims hit a 14-month high at 258,000.#TradeConcerns #USDAReport #WheatProduction #USExportSales #DroughtMonitor #CPIData

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 USDA Preview2:41 Ethanol Production is Strong5:55 Deere Stock7:17 Brazil Rain8:19 Flash Sale8:57 CPI Preview🌾 Upcoming USDA ReportGet ready! The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday morning. Traders are expecting minimal changes to this year's US corn and soybean production estimates. However, there’s talk of a potential reduction in the new crop US corn carryout estimate due to lighter-than-expected September 1st stocks. Some traders are speculating upward adjustments to the demand side of the corn balance sheet, thanks to strong export and ethanol data. Keep an eye out for possible changes to global supply and demand balances as well! 📈🌿 Ethanol Production on the RiseUS ethanol production saw a boost last week, hitting 1.04 million barrels per day—up 2.3% week-over-week and 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.2 million barrels, down from the previous week but still showing a year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand surged, with a 13% increase from last week and 20% from the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 8.4% compared to the same period last year. 🚗💨🚜 John Deere's Stock Steady Despite Tariff ThreatsJohn Deere’s stock remains strong, even in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump, who plans to impose a 200% tariff on machinery sold into the US if Deere moves production to Mexico. Despite the political drama, Deere's stock hit a 52-week high! Analysts believe traders are focusing on the market realities rather than political rhetoric. It seems there’s a 70% chance that tariffs will be implemented regardless of who wins the election! 📈💪🌧️ Brazil's Soybean Country Receives Scattered ShowersScattered showers moved across Brazil's soybean regions overnight! The weather models are having a bit of a disagreement on rainfall amounts for the next 5-10 days; the Euro model is notably wetter than the GFS model. Both models, however, suggest widespread rainfall during the 5-10 day period, potentially benefiting soybean planting. 🌧️🇧🇷🌽 Flash Sale of Corn ReportedUSDA reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. US corn export commitments are currently the fifth best in the last ten years—looking good out there! 📦📊 CPI Report AheadToday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show further moderation in consumer prices, with a projected increase of 0.1% in September and a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. This report could be a significant market mover, influencing the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November. 📉Stay tuned for more updates, and let’s keep the momentum going! 🌱✨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱📉 Soybean Futures Fall | Brazil Rains, China-EU Tariffs, Oil Price Drop, and Biofuel Expansion📉 Soybean Futures Take a HitOn Tuesday, Nov24 soybean futures fell nearly 18 cents per bushel, losing half of the gains made over the past five weeks:Uncertainty around China’s fiscal stimulus appears to be the driving factor behind the sell-off. Traders are glued to any news about stimulus measures.Adding to the pressure, a wide-open US harvest forecast and expected rains in Brazil next week have kept traders cautious.🌧️ Rains Set to Return to Brazil Next WeekBoth the Euro and GFS weather models are predicting the return of Brazil’s wet season next week, which could accelerate soybean planting:Brazil’s planting has been delayed due to hot and dry conditions, but the arrival of rain should help ensure proper emergence and reduce the risk of replanting.The growing season is still young, with November through January being key months for both the market and weather conditions in Brazil. 🌱🌍 China Retaliates Against EU Tariffs on EVsIn response to the EU’s recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China announced a series of retaliatory measures:Tariffs on gasoline-powered cars with large engines from the EU are under consideration.Starting Friday, China will impose a 39% tariff on brandy imports from the EU.🛢️ Oil Prices Drop on Ceasefire HopesOil prices dropped sharply on Tuesday, with WTI crude falling 4.6% to $73.57 per barrel:A potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel contributed to the decline.While oil prices surged 8% last week due to Middle East tensions, analysts now believe Israel may target military and intelligence sites rather than oil facilities in future strikes.🏭 Brazil to Build World’s Largest Soy Oil-Based Biofuel PlantBrazilian energy company Grupo Potencial will invest $109 million to create the world’s largest soy oil-based biofuel plant:The plant will increase annual biodiesel production capacity by 80% to 428 million gallons.Construction will begin in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2026.This investment comes as Brazil's government prepares to sign a bill increasing the biodiesel blend in diesel fuel. 🔋🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sale of SoybeansThe USDA reported a flash sale of 166,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year:Despite the sale, US soybean export commitments for the current marketing year are the third worst in the last ten years.👇 Stay Connected!Make sure to subscribe for more updates on global trade, crop markets, and energy trends. What do you think of Brazil's biofuel expansion and the impact of China’s trade retaliation? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬#SoybeanFutures #BrazilRains #ChinaEUTariffs #OilPriceDrop #BiofuelExpansion #USDAFlashSales #AgNews

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Brazil's Soybean Planting Lagging BehindBrazilian soybean planting is facing challenges due to dry conditions, with only 4.5% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday. This is a significant drop from 10% during the same week last year. Mato Grosso, the country's top soybean-producing state, is experiencing its slowest planting pace in nine years due to hot and dry weather. 🇺🇸 US Soybean Harvest on the Fast TrackThe US soybean harvest is making swift progress, reaching 47% completion nationally through Sunday, compared to just 26% the prior week and 34% on average. This harvest pace marks the second fastest in the last ten years! Notable states that have crossed the 50% mark include Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Minnesota. Meanwhile, corn harvest stands at 30%, slightly ahead of average at this time of year. Current corn conditions remain steady at 64% rated good to excellent. 🌽🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Slightly BehindWinter wheat planting in the US is 51% complete, which is slightly behind the average of 52%. Analysts had projected it to be 54% complete by now. States like Colorado and South Dakota have made notable progress with more than 60% of their crops planted.🎯 Escalating Tensions in UkraineRecent Russian missile strikes have damaged two vessels carrying Ukrainian grain in the Odesa region. One attack resulted in the death of one individual and injuries to five others. Since the onset of the conflict in 2022, Russia has damaged a total of 20 civilian vessels, raising serious concerns over trade in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Russia's Agriculture Minister has called for rain as the winter wheat crop faces significant drought challenges.📦 US Soybean Shipments SurgeUS soybean shipments saw a remarkable boost last week, with 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels) inspected for export, marking a 110% increase from the previous week and slightly up from last year. However, corn and wheat shipments were near the lower end of expectations, with corn at 933,274 metric tons (37 million bushels) and wheat at 363,460 metric tons (13 million bushels).🚢 Flash Sales ReportedUS exporters reported multiple flash sales on Monday, including:155,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.172,500 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.🌦️ Looking AheadAs we move through October, the weather will continue to be a crucial factor for both US and Brazilian crops. Keep an eye on forecasts and market reactions as harvest progresses!Stay tuned for more updates as the situation unfolds! 🌾📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽📉 Funds Reduce Net Short Positions | Middle East Conflict, Brazilian Planting Delays, and US Job Growth📊 Funds Drastically Reduce Net Short PositionsThe CFTC released its Commitment of Traders data on Friday, showing a significant reduction in net short positions by large money managers:Corn: Funds are now short 72k contracts, down from a record short of 356k in July.Soybeans: Net buyers of 44k contracts, reducing their net short to 32k contracts, the smallest since the end of May.SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k contracts, bringing the net short to 25k contracts, the smallest since October 2022.🌍 Conflict in the Middle East EscalatesTensions continue to rise as Israeli defense reported five projectiles launched from Palestinian territory on Monday. Here’s the latest:Sirens sounded across central Israel, and two people were injured, according to Bloomberg.Over the weekend, Israel sent troops back to parts of northern Gaza, indicating ongoing security concerns.The conflict has pushed crude oil futures to fresh multi-week highs, affecting global markets. 🛢️🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting LagsBrazilian soybean planting is falling behind last year’s pace due to hot and dry conditions:Only 4.1% of the total expected area has been planted, compared to 7.8% at this time last year.Weather models are predicting rainfall this week, which could help planting progress. 🌧️🌦️ US Farmers to Stay Busy Amid Dry WeatherUS farmers are in for a dry week, perfect for harvest activities:After a dry weekend, Corn Belt farmers will see another week of mostly dry weather, with above-normal temperatures in the Plains and western Corn Belt.GFS models suggest no significant rainfall in key corn and soybean areas through October 23rd.🌾 Russian Wheat Prices SoarRussian wheat prices have climbed to their highest levels since June due to severe drought:Prices have risen by 4.3% in the last two weeks.Lower production is pushing Russian exporters to limit shipments.Egypt, a major buyer, recently launched its largest wheat tender of 3.8mmt in August. 🚜 USDA Reports Flash SalesThe USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.198,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.📈 US Job Growth Exceeds ExpectationsUS job growth in September surpassed forecasts:Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000, beating the expected 150,000.Unemployment declined to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August.👇 Stay Informed!Make sure to subscribe for the latest on ag markets, weather forecasts, and global economic shifts. #CornFutures #SoybeanMarket #MiddleEastConflict #BrazilPlanting #JobGrowth #USDAFlashSales #AgNews

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 ADM Suspends Carbon Capture ProjectADM has halted CO2 injection at its carbon capture and storage site in Illinois following the discovery of a potential leak underground. This site, one of the first of its kind in the US, aims to combat climate change, but environmental groups have raised concerns about potential harm to drinking water supplies. While ADM assures there’s no risk to public health, this incident poses a setback for carbon capture initiatives. The EPA previously found ADM in violation of federal safe drinking water laws.⛽ Oil Prices Spike Amid Middle East TensionsOil prices surged on Thursday as the US considers supporting an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities. WTI crude rose over 5%, closing above $73 per barrel, marking the largest one-day gain in nearly a year. A potential strike on Iranian oil could lead to prices rising by an additional $28 per barrel and increase gasoline prices by about 67 cents. Current US gasoline prices have been lower due to weak demand and slower growth in the US and Chinese economies.⚓ Dockworkers' Strike Temporarily ResolvedThe US dockworkers' strike has reached a temporary resolution, with a tentative agreement in place that extends the current contract until January 15. Workers will see a 62% wage increase over the new six-year contract. Negotiations will continue on other issues, including automation. It’s expected that the cargo bottleneck caused by the strike will be cleared in about 12 days.🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor UpdateThe latest USDA drought monitor shows improvements in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt due to rainfall from Hurricane Helene. States like Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri benefited, while Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota saw worsening conditions. Currently, drought conditions affect:Corn: 27%Soybeans: 26%Winter Wheat: 44%Spring Wheat: 22%Cattle: 31%📊 Strong Corn Export SalesUS new crop corn export sales were impressive last week, with net sales hitting 1.7 million metric tons (66 million bushels), the highest volume since November. Mexico was the largest buyer. Net soybean sales also remained solid at 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels), while net wheat sales exceeded expectations at 443,700 metric tons (16 million bushels), with Japan being the largest buyer.💰 Record High for Money-Market FundsUS money-market funds have reached a record high, with about $38.7 billion added during the week ending October 2. Total assets in these funds have risen to $6.46 trillion. This surge follows a third-quarter increase of $321 billion, significantly higher than the previous quarter’s $63 billion. This influx of investment continues even as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates.Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 🌱📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 "Fast and Furious" Harvest2:10 Brazil Weather5:09 Reduced Russian Wheat Exports6:35 Russian Drone Attack8:07 Ethanol Production is STRONG9:09 Dockworkers🌾 Fast-Paced US Harvest AheadThe US corn and soybean harvest is set to move quickly due to a dry forecast. USDA reported that the harvest pace for both crops is ahead of average. The most recent Euro model suggests no significant rainfall for the central United States over the next 10 days, with above-normal temperatures expected throughout the Corn Belt. This is excellent news for farmers looking to expedite their harvest!🌧️ Brazil's Weather UpdateA small storm cluster has moved over northern Mato Grosso, bringing some much-needed rain to Brazilian soybean areas. The 10-day Euro model predicts scattered rain across much of Brazil's soybean regions through next week, although total rainfall is expected to remain below normal. However, the 16-day GFS anomaly map indicates that key soybean areas may see closer-to-normal rainfall later this month.🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Estimates LoweredEstimates for Russia's wheat exports have been slightly reduced. Sovecon has lowered its forecast to 47.6 million metric tons due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting the harvest. Despite this reduction, wheat shipments from July to August remain slightly lower than last year's record levels. Russian wheat stocks are currently at 24.8 million metric tons, down 14% compared to last year.🚁 Drone Attack Affects Ukrainian PortsA recent Russian drone attack has damaged Ukrainian port infrastructure, raising concerns about Black Sea trade and causing Chicago wheat futures to hit a three-and-a-half month high. The attack targeted grain facilities near Ukraine's border with Romania and affected electricity supplies in the northern Sumy region, impacting almost 80,000 people.🚜 US Ethanol Production UpdateUS ethanol production saw an increase last week, with weekly output at 1.02 million barrels per day, marking a 2.1% rise compared to the previous week and a 1% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are currently at 23.5 million barrels, slightly down from the previous week but up 6.4% compared to last year. However, implied gasoline demand fell 7.4% from the previous week.⚓ Dockworkers Strike UpdatePresident Joe Biden has called for negotiations to resume between striking dockworkers and US port employers. While he’s not planning to intervene directly, Biden warned that the ongoing strike could lead to significant economic consequences. Talks have stalled over wage increases and automation issues, with the strike expected to increase consumer prices and cost the US economy billions.Stay tuned for more updates as the situation evolves! 🌱📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Corn Futures Rally as Hedge Pressure Remains LowCorn futures reached new multi-month highs overnight, with the Dec24 contract peaking near $4.33 per bushel. The rally has now reached 48 cents from its August low. Here's what's driving the surge:Large money managers have been aggressive buyers, reducing their net short positions from a peak of 356k contracts in July to just 50-60k.Despite an extremely active US harvest, hedge pressure is minimal, possibly due to concerns of a tighter new crop balance sheet after USDA’s lighter-than-expected old crop carryout estimate.📉 US Farmer Sentiment Hits Eight-Year LowUS farmer sentiment took a dive, hitting its lowest level in more than eight years:The Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 88 in September, a 12-point decline from August.Main concerns include low commodity prices, high input costs, trade uncertainties, high interest rates, and potential policy changes post-election.Farmers expect much lower profitability in the coming year compared to their outlook at this time last year.🌍 Iran’s Direct Attack on Israel and Market ImpactsTensions flared in the Middle East as Iran launched its largest direct attack on Israel:Hundreds of ballistic missiles were fired, with Israel’s Iron Dome intercepting most of them.The US Navy assisted, launching about a dozen interceptors.Oil prices surged over 5% amid concerns about possible supply disruptions in the region. In response, the US has increased its military presence and plans to send more troops and fighter squadrons in the coming days.🌱 StoneX Raises US Corn & Soybean Crop EstimatesStoneX has adjusted its forecasts for this season’s crops:Corn yield is now projected at 184 bpa, up from 182.9 bpa. This puts corn production at 15.22 billion bushels, an increase from 15.13 billion.Soybean yield is estimated at 53.5 bpa, up slightly from 53 bpa, with production forecasted to reach 4.61 billion bushels.🛢️ Renewable Diesel Production DeclineUS renewable diesel production saw its largest monthly decline on record in July:Production fell by 6% to roughly 4.6 billion gallons per year.The market has reached a surplus, with output surpassing demand despite government-mandated consumption targets and subsidies.The demand for vegetable oils as a feedstock also dropped by more than 5.6% to 1.2 billion pounds.🚜 USDA Flash Sales of Corn & SoybeansUSDA reported multiple flash sales on Tuesday:195,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn was sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans were also sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures RallyCorn futures saw a boost on Monday following a friendly USDA report, which pegged September 1st US corn stocks at 1.76 billion bushels. This figure is 52 million bushels below the USDA's previous estimate due to increased feed and residual usage. The report also confirmed that there were no major surprises in the US wheat production estimates.📦 Dockworkers Strike on the East and Gulf CoastsDockworkers from the International Longshoremen's Association began a strike overnight after failing to reach an agreement with the US Maritime Alliance. This strike is estimated to cost the US economy $540 million per day and will impact container shipments from 36 ports from Maine to Texas. The strike could significantly affect grain exports, with containers accounting for about 10% of these shipments.🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting LagsBrazil's soybean planting is lagging, with only 2% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 5.2% during the same week last year. Hot and dry conditions are a significant factor in the slow planting progress. As for corn, 30% of the projected acres for Brazil's first corn crop have been planted.🇨🇳 Boost for Chinese Corn FuturesChinese corn futures surged 1.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the largest one-day gain since January. Recent stimulus measures in China, including lower interest rates and eased home purchase restrictions, have boosted investor confidence. Additionally, reduced grain imports are expected to drive corn futures higher as the Chinese government advises buyers to cut purchases.🌾 US Harvest Ahead of ScheduleThe US corn harvest is progressing well, with 21% harvested nationally compared to 14% last week and 18% on average. States like Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas have already harvested over 50% of their crops. Soybeans are also ahead, with 26% harvested. However, corn conditions slipped slightly to 64% rated as good to excellent.🌱 Winter Wheat Planting OngoingUS winter wheat planting is currently 39% complete, ahead of last week’s 25% and in line with the average of 38%. States like Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Washington have planted over 50% of their crops.📈 Export Shipments UpdateUS corn shipments remained strong, with 1.1 million metric tons (45 million bushels) inspected for export, reflecting a 70% increase from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were reported at 675,749 metric tons (25 million bushels), up 36% from the prior week, while wheat shipments totaled 536,929 metric tons (20 million bushels), a 25% increase year-over-year.🥡 Flash Sale of SoybeansUSDA reported a flash sale of 116,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, although current soybean export commitments remain among the lowest in the last decade.Stay tuned for more updates as the week progresses! 🌾📊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean Futures SurgeSoybean futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Nov24 contract gaining nearly 25 cents (2.4%) per bushel—its best close since July 25th! The rally was largely driven by soybean meal futures, which skyrocketed 5.3%. Hurricane-related storms are expected to disrupt soybean crushing in some southeastern US facilities, leading to market adjustments regarding meal supplies. Concerns about weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to the upward movement.📊 Grain Stocks Report Coming UpThe USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report today at 11:00 AM CST. Analysts expect significantly higher stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last year. Estimates suggest:Corn stocks: up 36%Soybean stocks: up 32%Wheat stocks: up 12%There may also be adjustments to the 2023 production estimates for corn and soybeans.📉 Funds Adjust Positions"The Funds" have been actively trimming their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of September 24, they were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of corn and 37,000 contracts of soybeans. The net short in soybeans is now 76,000 contracts, the smallest since early June. Since the peak short in July, fund traders have covered 362,000 contracts across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.🌾 Decline in European Wheat CropEurope's wheat production is expected to hit a 12-year low. The European Commission estimates this season's soft wheat crop at 114.6 million metric tons, down 9% from last year, largely due to unfavorable weather conditions. France and Germany, the leading producers, are projected to face significant declines.⚓ Strike at Vancouver Port EndsThe Vancouver grain workers' strike concluded last week with a tentative agreement. The four-day strike impacted six key terminals, affecting grain exports. A ratification vote is scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, dockworkers at the Port of Montréal are set to strike for three days starting today.💰 Gold Positions on the RiseMoney managers have ramped up their bullish positions in gold, increasing their net-long position by 0.9% as of last Tuesday. The net long now stands at 254,841 contracts, the highest since March 2020, with gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,685.58 per ounce.🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean OilUSDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean oil since April 2023.Stay tuned for more updates as we head into the week! 🌟📈