Monday's USDA Report: Super Bearish or Already Discounted??
Monday's USDA Report: Super Bearish or Already Discounted??  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Fri May 09 2025
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Da Pope1:03 Charts4:58 USDA Preview9:55 US/UK Deal12:21 Trump China Thoughts16:21 Drought/Weather Update20:28 Export Sales21:38 Flash Sales📊 USDA Report Monday + Big Trade News! 🌍🌽📅 Mark your calendar! USDA drops its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Monday at 11am CST. We'll get our first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets, with trend yields and March acreage in focus. 📉 Early expectations suggest bearish new crop corn vs. the current year. Pre-report estimates 👇🇺🇸🇬🇧 US–UK Strike Ag Deal!The UK will eliminate its 19% ethanol tariff, giving a major boost to the US ethanol industry 🚀 ($535M in exports last year). The deal also expands beef trade, but UK food safety rules will still apply. For context: the UK = 🇬🇧 68 million people, with 36 lbs of beef consumption per person vs. 59 lbs in the US. 🍖📉📈 Trump Eyes China Tariff CutsPresident Trump expressed hope for progress in this weekend’s trade talks with China 🇨🇳. A tariff reduction (currently at 145%) could be on the table. Markets responded: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% 💹🌾 Drought Monitor HighlightsMost of the Corn Belt is drought-free, but dryness is growing in parts of MO, IL, IN & the High Plains. Here’s the USDA breakdown:Corn: 20%Soybeans: 15%Winter Wheat: 22%Spring Wheat: 37%Cattle Areas: 30%🚢 Export Sales RecapCorn: 1.7mmt – 🌽 65M bu (+64% WoW) – Japan leadsSoybeans: 377k mt – 🫘 14M bu – Mexico leadsWheat: 70k mt – 🌾 3M bu – Mexico leads🌎 China Turns to ArgentinaChina signed a $900M non-binding grain deal with 🇦🇷 Argentina, aiming to sidestep Trump’s tariffs. Expect rising Argentine corn & soybean shipments to China.📢 Flash Sales!Mexico: 205k mt corn (2024/25 & 2025/26)Unknown Dest.: 115k mt corn (2024/25)Pakistan: 225k mt soybeans (largest since June 2022) 🛳️📬 Subscribe for more updates & leave your thoughts in the comments!