US/Taiwan Negotiations Continue: How Much US Grain Will They Buy??
US/Taiwan Negotiations Continue: How Much US Grain Will They Buy??  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Tue Sep 30 2025
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 What Will Taiwan Buy?3:20 Grain Stocks Report Today4:33 Harvest Update8:24 Soybean Shipment Problem10:25 Better Demand for Russian Wheat11:40 Flash Sales🌎 Welcome back! Today’s focus: US–Taiwan trade talks, USDA’s Grain Stocks report, and fresh updates on harvest & exports.🇹🇼 US–Taiwan Trade SpotlightUSDA’s Luke Lindberg is in Taiwan this week for trade negotiations.Meetings include the Agribusiness Trade Mission and a roundtable with US ag reps.Taiwan is the 8th largest market for US ag exports; the US is its top supplier.Taiwan committed to $6.4B in US corn & soybeans over 4 years and $10B in total ag buys—but this is only in line with past purchases (~$3.8B last year).Current tariffs on Taiwanese exports to the US sit at 20%.📊 Grain Stocks Report (Sept 1)Corn stocks are expected to be down 24% YoY.Soybean stocks are estimated to be down 5.6%.Wheat stocks seen up 2.6%.Traders eye discrepancies between pre-report estimates and USDA’s prior carryout numbers.🌽 Crop Progress & ConditionsCorn: 66% good-to-excellent (best since 2018), 18% harvested (avg: 19%).Soybeans: 62% good-to-excellent, 19% harvested (avg: 20%).Winter Wheat: 34% planted (avg: 36%), the slowest pace since 2016.🚢 US Export InspectionsCorn: 1.5mmt (60M bu) → +10% WoW, +33% YoY.Soybeans: 594k mt (22M bu) → +5% WoW, -13% YoY.Wheat: 739k mt (27M bu) → -21% WoW, +34% YoY.🌾 Global Wheat WatchRussian wheat export prices rising for 2nd week.Exports down 29% YoY (Jul–Sep).Harvest nearly complete at ~87mmt. Forecast trimmed to 43.4mmt exports.📢 Flash Sales135,660mt corn → Mexico.110,668mt corn → Unknown (2025/26 delivery).