Higher Soybean Prices = NO FARM AID? Here's What We Know...
Higher Soybean Prices = NO FARM AID? Here's What We Know...  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Wed Nov 19 2025
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links—Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid OutlookRecent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities.Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war.Vaden quote:“The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.”🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to ChinaUSDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks.Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising.📊 CFTC Data Returns TodayThe CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning.This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3.Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close:Funds short 50k cornLong 150k soybeansShort 60k SRW wheatCFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week.🚜 Crop Progress UpdateUSDA released its first crop progress report since reopening:Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year.Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished.Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg).🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays PlantingFlooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation.Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.