Analysts are Dumb, There is No Crystal Ball (Grain Marketing)
Analysts are Dumb, There is No Crystal Ball (Grain Marketing)  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Thu Dec 05 2024
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Stock Market and Grain Marketing Comparison4:29 Bitcoin 100k6:02 Mexico Economic Problems7:46 Mexico GMO Ban?10:47 Russia Wheat Problems12:11 Ethanol Production PaceStock Market Hits Record HighsThe stock market reached new record highs on Wednesday! The Dow Jones climbed by 0.7%, surpassing the 45,000 mark for the first time. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also set new records, gaining 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. These gains were driven by a rally in technology stocks, alongside positive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in "remarkably good shape" and that potential risks in the labor market have subsided. Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time early this morning! The world's most famous cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% since Donald Trump's election in early November. Paul Atkins, a well-known crypto advocate, was appointed to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Trump, sparking optimism in the crypto community. Additionally, significant money flows into Wall Street’s Bitcoin ETFs have added to the momentum.Mexico's Economic Outlook DeterioratesMexico’s economic outlook is deteriorating, with 47% of Mexicans now believing the economy is in bad shape, an increase from 44% in October. The economic slowdown is becoming more apparent after only two months under the new administration. The situation could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.Mexico and GM Corn Imports Dispute Nears ResolutionMexico is optimistic about a resolution to its dispute over genetically modified (GM) corn imports. The US had opposed Mexico’s attempt to limit these imports, claiming that the restrictions violated the USMCA agreement. The dispute resolution is expected by December 14, which could offer clarity on future trade relations between the two countries.Russia’s Winter Crops Face Record Poor ConditionsRussia’s winter crops are facing the worst conditions on record, with a 37% of the crop in poor condition, the highest percentage ever recorded. In comparison, only 4% of last year’s crop was in poor condition at this time, and the five-year average is 8%. The crop’s quality has significantly dropped, with only 31% rated in good condition, the lowest in 23 years. US Ethanol Production Declines for the First Time in Over Two MonthsUS ethanol production dropped by 4.1% last week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the first decline in more than two months. Despite this, production remains 6.1% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23 million barrels, a +1% increase compared to the previous week. Implied gasoline demand rose 2.7% compared to last week and 6.5% compared to last year, although US gasoline demand has been slightly down over the las