Trade Deals Don't Matter because the Crop is Huge
Trade Deals Don't Matter because the Crop is Huge  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Mon Jul 28 2025
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 US Weather, Giant Crop2:42 US/EU Trade Deal4:13 US and China Talks8:05 The Funds8:53 Cattle on Feed11:13 Argentina Taxes12:09 China Heat13:27 Flash Sales🌽 Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! 🌧️🌬️Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5–12°F below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? That’s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. 🌡️📉🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 Big US–EU Trade Deal Signed!The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday:🔹 15% tariff on EU imports🔹 EU to invest $600B in the US🔹 EU to buy $750B in US energy🔹 No new US tariffs on exportsPresident Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. 🌍🚢🇨🇳 US–China Truce Extension TalksOfficials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days.🔸 Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)!🔸 A Trump–Xi meeting may happen in late October🔸 China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods🔸 US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases 🌾🤞📉 Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & WheatCFTC's latest COT report shows:🟢 Funds bought 8k corn contracts🟢 Funds bought 26k soybean contracts🟢 Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts🥩 Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise!Friday’s report showed:📉 June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations)📉 Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess)➡️ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond?🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Export TariffsPresident Milei cuts:🔻 Soybean meal/oil: 31% → 24.5%🔻 Soybeans: 33% → 26%🔻 Corn: 12% → 9.5%🔻 Select beef: 6.75% → 5%Milei still sees tariffs as a “necessary evil” for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. 🇦🇷💸🔥 China’s Crop Heat Stress ContinuesChina faces ongoing drought and heat:🌡️ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output📉 Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year🌾 90–95% of China’s wheat is winter wheatUSDA still sees modest increases—but the heat wave could say otherwise!🚢 USDA Flash Sales Update📢 Big Friday moves:🇲🇽 Mexico:• 102,870mt corn (4mil bu)• 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu)🇰🇷 South Korea:• 140,000mt corn (6mil bu)👉 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!