Huge WIN for Farmers?? 45Z Proposed Rules Finally Released
Huge WIN for Farmers?? 45Z Proposed Rules Finally Released  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Wed Feb 04 2026
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New GuidanceThe US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays.Key takeaways from the proposal:Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or CanadaThe 45Z credit is extended through 2029The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removedA 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayedIt is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.)This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestrationIn most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not bothNon-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallonOnly a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposedThere is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are sharedTreasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices🚜 US Farmer Sentiment SlidesFarmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed:A steep decline in current conditions and future expectationsNearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next yearLong-term pessimism rose meaningfullyConcerns about US agricultural exports increasedThis highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves.🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production OutlookBrazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as-Ethanol prices improveSugar prices weakenNew corn ethanol plants come onlineA large sugarcane crop boosts outputStoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production.🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food SecurityChina unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes:Higher grain and oilseed productionDiversified agricultural importsReduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and CanadaExpanded sourcing from South America and the Global SouthNew quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairyIncreased investment in agricultural innovation₿ Bitcoin UpdateBitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by:Liquidations of leveraged positionsWeak sentiment in crypto derivativesBroader financial market volatilityDespite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.