Bessent Says China Hit the 12mmt Soybean Target - Is He Right? Is this a Win for Farmers?
Bessent Says China Hit the 12mmt Soybean Target - Is He Right? Is this a Win for Farmers?  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Wed Jan 21 2026
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China & U.S. SoybeansChina has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott BessentShipments are expected to move by MayFocus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three yearsDespite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demandOngoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage📌 Important context:USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so farRoughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house businessEven at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing yearThat’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week📉 Grain MarketsSoybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53Pressure came from:Rising geopolitical tensions over GreenlandExpectations for a record Brazilian soybean cropCorn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24🚜 Farm Economy Reality CheckFarmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costsNew York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to:Fallow unprofitable acresImprove marginal landShift some acres from soybeans to cornHis takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal—reassessment is no longer optional🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA)Corn: Strong print, beating expectationsSoybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volumeWheat: Also near the high end of expectationsYTD snapshot:Soybean shipments: well below last yearCorn shipments: well ahead of last yearChina-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf🌱 Flash SaleUSDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year🌍 Macro & MarketsJapan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auctionLong-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit marketsS&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since OctoberA weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag₿ Bitcoin WatchStrategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again:Massive recent Bitcoin purchasesNow the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globallyStrategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuanceCEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach