Corn Bounce + Joe and Matt have a National Yield Bet (Drought??)
Corn Bounce + Joe and Matt have a National Yield Bet (Drought??)  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Fri Mar 21 2025
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Rally Corn futures surged on Thursday, with the May 2025 contract peaking near $4.70 and gaining 7 cents per bushel. However, new crop contracts saw limited gains, with the December 2025 contract rising by less than 2 cents. 📈 Strong export sales may have fueled the rally, and some analysts believe the USDA is underestimating U.S. export demand. 🌾 Wheat and Soybean Export Sales U.S. wheat export sales saw a major net reduction last week, with a marketing-year low of 248,800mt (9 million bushels), falling below expectations. This decline was largely due to Panama, which had been a top buyer the previous week. Net corn sales, however, rose 55% from the previous week to 1.5mmt (59 million bushels), with Japan leading purchases. 🌎 Soybean sales underperformed, totaling 352,600mt (13 million bushels), down 53% from last week, with China as the largest buyer. 🌦 Drought Conditions in the U.S. The latest USDA drought monitor shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt. Rainfall improved drought conditions in Illinois, Indiana, and southern Michigan, but Missouri saw worsening conditions. 🌬 The High Plains faced dry, windy weather, leading to deteriorating conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma. 🔹 Corn: 53% in drought 🔹 Soybeans: 42% in drought 🔹 Winter Wheat: 34% in drought 🔹 Spring Wheat: 39% in drought 🔹 Cattle: 43% in drought 🛢 Biofuel Industry Faces Uncertainty U.S. and Canadian biofuel companies are cutting production amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's biofuel subsidies and trade policies. The lack of finalized 45Z tax credit guidance and shifting tariff policies are creating instability. 📉 Declining demand, excess soybean supply, and a 60% drop in crush margins are expected to reduce U.S. soybean acres this spring. The biofuel sector is likely to shrink further, with significant financial losses ahead. Meanwhile, the IRS and Treasury Department are accepting public comments on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit until April 12. Trump's regulatory freeze could delay or halt finalization. 🇦🇷 Argentina's Crop Forecast Cut The Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered Argentina’s soybean crop forecast to 48.6mmt, down 1mmt due to hot and dry weather in the northeastern region, which accounts for 10% of production. ☀️ These conditions could reduce yields by 22%. Drought is also impacting Argentina's corn crop, with projected yields now expected to drop by 40%. Despite this, the exchange maintained its corn crop forecast at 49mmt due to a 7.6% increase in planted acres. 🥃 EU Delays Whiskey Tariff The EU has postponed its planned 50% tariff on American whiskey, originally set for April 1, now pushed to mid-April. 🍾 This aligns with broader trade negotiations in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. U.S. distillers have been rushing shipments to Europe ahead of potential tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol in retaliation. 🌍