USDA to Cut Crop Estimates? + Joe Attempts Positive Spin on Soybean Situation
USDA to Cut Crop Estimates? + Joe Attempts Positive Spin on Soybean Situation  
Podcast: Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Published On: Thu Sep 11 2025
Description: Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro0:49 USDA Preview3:38 Argentina Situation7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth12:15 Ethanol Production🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewThe USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.🇦🇷 Argentina OutlookRosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US SoybeansChina booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.⛽ Biofuels & Policy UncertaintyTrump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.🍶 Ethanol Production & MarginsUS ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.👉Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and leave a comment with your thoughts on tomorrow’s report.