Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Doug on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals20:23

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events31:06...

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Gary on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets28:07...

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/4003:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really...

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mike on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.00:37:48 – Euro...

What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently26:20

China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow George on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Opening and disclaimer02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China...

What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how...

Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle...

Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Introduction to part 202:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen17:13 - The optimal bed size21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota24:42 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns26:54 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota31:58 - Living with Ed Seykota34:16 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie maniaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 202504:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Read more about David.Episode TimeStamps:02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets41:03 - Managing money in trend following43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the...

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and introductions01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:32 - Introduction to our special guest01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?09:15 - Is it just a cycle?19:46 - What is the end game?23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity31:45 - How trend following has changed over time39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Maurice here.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically39:16 - A fork in the road for the...

Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has been on our radar recently?05:43 - Is this time different for gold?14:13 - Just a gold story?16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?19:45 - The Fed has to change26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks35:30 - Not every innovations are good39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold46:21 - Industry performance update49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets01:14:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Argentina’s history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging markets at large - their hard-won stability, the new risks born of geopolitics and demographics, and the shifting fault lines of globalization.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Nicolas.Episode TimeStamps: 02:24 - Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne05:32 - Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina11:43 - How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy14:52 - How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process16:56 - The state and outlook of emerging markets21:13 - The relationship between central banks and emerging markets23:33 - How the current globalization impact the investing landscape27:43 - Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor33:25 - How markets respond to fiscal...

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI’s misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gold, and crypto, this is a portrait of a regime defined not by fundamentals, but by reflex and constraint.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alan on XEpisode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has been on our radar recently?02:00 - Industry performance update03:07 - Are current valuations a sign of a bubble?12:13 - The importance of reflexivity18:59 - The move towards non correlation is upon us22:55 - What is driving up asset prices?26:34 - When will the supply/demand imbalance normalize?31:56 - Reaching an uncontrollable situation35:47 - What are markets showing us about options?39:38 - Precious metals is the place to be42:26 - Is AI actually the game changer that we all expect it to be?52:07 - Will better technology = better performance?56:03 - A timeline for possible

China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial strategy? Kevin Coldiron welcomes back Dr. Zoe Liu for a nuanced look at how Beijing is managing external pressure, internal control, and the creeping disruption of dollar-backed stablecoins. Behind the headlines is a deeper story about surveillance, capital flight, and the boundaries of monetary sovereignty. As China builds shadow reserves and experiments with programmable money, the question isn’t just what it fears it’s what kind of system it’s trying to build instead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Zoe on Twitter and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:11 - Introduction to Zoe Liu04:15 - How U.S tariffs impact shipping costs and the deficit with China17:27 - What is China actually doing with their earned dollars?27:52 - Are FX entrusted loans reinforcing the dollar based trading system?36:07 - What are stable coins and why are China worried about them?42:31 - The second level of...

Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behavior and the backdrop it’s unfolding against. From drone incursions over Denmark to political fragmentation and a rising tolerance for systemic risk, they explore why nothing seems to break - and what that complacency might be masking. Along the way, they unpack Bouchard’s inelastic market hypothesis, CalPERS’ pivot toward Total Portfolio thinking, and the structural trade-offs inside multi-strat hedge funds. It's a conversation about signals in the noise - and the quiet shifts that could reshape the landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?05:38 - The tension between talents11:08 - Is the popularity of certain alternative strategies just a sign of the times?22:07 - Industry performance update27:46 - Q1, Michael: Why shouldn't I sell Andrew's product when it's outperforming single managers and vise versa?30:15 - The evolution of replication strategy performance37:44 - The storytelling behind hedge fund losses41:04 - Do all markets have the ability to trend?48:57 - The rise of multi strategy hedge funds57:47 - It shouldn't work but it does, so why?01:04:27 - A reminder for Andrew's generous book offerCopyright © 2025 – CMC...

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking tools once reserved for institutions, Vlad outlines how Robinhood is positioning retail for a different kind of market regime. Futures, short selling, 24-hour options, AI-driven trade simulation, and embedded social features aren’t just upgrades - they’re signals. With market structure evolving and a historic wealth transfer underway, this episode captures a platform staking its claim on the next generation of capital allocators - and the volatility they’ll inherit.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:27 - Introduction to Vlad Tenev05:11 - Big announcements from Robinhood09:15 - Tenev's favorite commodities12:13 - Lets talk about options!18:20 - How AI can benefit options trading21:56 - Short selling is coming to Robinhood25:44 - The path to making Robinhood more resilient28:02 - The great transfer of wealth31:17 - How Robinhood differentiates themselves from other platforms33:35 - Creating a broader army37:23 - What is Robinhood most excited for going forward?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics

Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the data can and can’t tell us when conviction fades. If there’s a theme this week, it’s simple: knowing what works is not the same as using it well.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:14 - What has been on our radar recently?12:09 - Industry performance update19:23 - Q1, John: What are your recommendations for adapting a continuous forecast-based position sizing for a cash-only portfolio?23:15 - Q2, Absolute: Is short/long symmetry optimal for a strategy in which the price of the traded instruments is measured in units (fiat currencies) that are inflated (devalued)?30:19 - Q3, Lin: Got any ideas for trading a crypto portfolio?32:04 - Why investors are losing money on 42% gain ETFs39:50 - The difference between percentage return and cash return43:24 - Debunking the persistent score card46:19 - How the world has changed for CTAsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation’s structural drivers, the quiet rise of fiscal dominance, and why some of the industry’s most comfortable assumptions no longer hold. It’s not about being contrarian - it’s about being clear-eyed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Richard Tomlinson07:07 - What makes Tomlinson and LPPI stand out from their peers?11:52 - Who are LPPI's clients?13:26 - The investment philosophy behind LPPI's work18:06 - How LPPI's allocators work together19:05 - Getting the allocation right21:29 - Are they worried about the decline of equities?23:37 - Tomlinson perspective on global macro26:55 - Public vs private markets29:05 - Their approach to allocating domestically31:15 - How their allocation is...

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?06:44 - Industry performance update12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA42:30...

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what’s forecast - more about what’s misunderstood.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Anna on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong03:57 - The current state of Fed06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense28:59 - The outlook of the housing market31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level...

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what’s missing.And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has caught our attention recently?06:26 - Industry performance update13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition17:18 - Insights on carbon markets21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets?28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system47:27 - More diversified = more risk?49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment?57:50 - Is trend...

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark?14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings?22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your...

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:50 - Catching up05:02 - Industry performance update13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performanceCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the...

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn’t just a signal, but a lever.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam?21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California?33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management36:56 - It's all in the EUAs40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management45:39 - Wrapping upCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:...

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?07:10 - Industry performance update09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it16:33 - The drivers of spread23:26 - Breaking markets into factors26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades31:39 - Is there too much money in trend?36:47 - Key insights into FX trading44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers50:23 - The real process of an allocator56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy01:01:35 - You should just go play...

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?26:58 - Powell - in or out?31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots46:55 -...

Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it’s about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity14:23 - Industry performance update19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits54:02 - What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing57:48 - 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry01:02:00 -...

From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility’s inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market’s next move before price does.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 59:42 - Introduction to the series02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool18:55 - The history of the VIX index23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge optionsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...

When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated?17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed32:35 - Industry performance update37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place?45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend?52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All...

What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Diane on X and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be?06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic...

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence10:43 - Industry performance update14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation01:07:17 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Steven on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation32:15 - Do deficits even matter?36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?45:11 -

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn,Episode TimeStamps: 01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?06:11 - Industry performance update07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?33:35 - The structure of an allocator36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in...

What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Artem on X.Check out these resources about farmland investingEpisode Timestamps:02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)?10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income?12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate?15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing?30:49 - The tech side of agriculture - where are we heading?33:58 - Major changes in...

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration11:01 - Industry performance update13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge56:15 - The Emperor's New

Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn’t a retrospective. It’s a clear warning from someone who’s seen what happens when incentives go unchecked.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rick on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made06:32 - The historical performance of gold08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates?10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest13:30 - A shadow Fed president14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end?29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy?36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat39:03 - How

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper09:45 - Industry performance update14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key33:57 - A better alternative trend following?37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication59:33 - Defining tracking errorCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out?06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime09:33 - A move towards mass customization10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next?13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies20:09 - More growth or more all-weather?23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies?30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers36:55...

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?04:38 - Industry performance update07:38 - Is trend thriving?09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?27:26 - The value of long term track records34:30 - Is trend following flawed?37:48 - What are investors actually interested in?44:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund?12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund?18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a  fixed number of positions41:40 - What is so cool about stocks?46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy07:33 - Industry performance update16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?52:26 - Why are bond...

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t a cycle call. It’s a question of what kind of economy we are becoming—and whether portfolios built for the past can survive what’s coming.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Bob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:58 - Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion12:30 - Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy15:31 - The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration27:58 - Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications32:04 - The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China42:13 - Economic Growth and Market Dynamics48:28 - The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies53:25 - Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification01:01:10 - The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation01:09:34 - Global Macro Trends and Financial DecouplingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continues to challenge conventional assumptions. It’s a conversation about construction over conviction, contribution over headline returns, and the gap between what improves a portfolio and what investors are willing to own.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - Introduction and latest update07:57 - Trend Following score card12:38 - Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer26:45 - Latest insights from Quantica Capital36:55 - Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry44:52 - The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur SeppResources discussed in this Episode:LINK SI353: From Tariffs to TrendsLINK SI353: Keeping up with the Trend-FollowersLINK SI353: The Science & Practice of Trend-Following SystemsCopyright © 2025 – CMC...

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to the uneasy future of central bank independence, this is a conversation about slow shifts with fast consequences, and what happens when credibility, not currency, becomes the liability.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Barry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:09 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen03:51 - The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions14:29 - Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses33:04 - Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts49:18 - Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives56:46 - The Future of Global Currency SystemsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3...

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent underperformance may actually be revealing. This episode is less about solutions than about orientation: how to stay aligned when the tools evolve faster than the terrain, and when conviction must coexist with doubt.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:01 - Introduction to Systematic Investing02:11 - The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis07:05 - The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies12:06 - Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets21:49 - Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management24:24 - Exploring Volatility and Leverage29:50 - Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics36:29 - Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies45:04 - Rethinking Investment Constraints49:36 - Strategic Allocations and Market Timing56:11 - Market Dynamics and Trend Following01:00:09 - The Evolution of Systematic InvestingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... from the reflexive cycles of implied vol to the growing influence of structured product flows and zero-day options. With correlations breaking down and dispersion rising, Benn makes the case that path matters more than magnitude. It’s a conversation about what happens when liquidity fragments, when the Fed can’t step in, and when legacy playbooks stop working. Quietly technical, deeply contextual, this one rewards a careful listen.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:11 - Introduction... setting the stage03:01 - Understanding Options and Market Dynamics09:47 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Administration11:41 - Market Volatility and Structural Changes in Trading19:00 - The Impact of Structural Changes on Market Volume26:13 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation30:23 - The Impact of Interest Rates on Investment Strategies34:21 - Understanding Zero DTE Options and Their Market Impact39:50 - Economic Outlook: Tariffs and Interest RatesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I...

As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-202021:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies01:00:14 - The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development01:04:44 - The Impact of AI on HumanityCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and investor behavior. They break down how Return Stacked blends top-down replication with a bottom-up trend engine, why most investors misunderstand what replication actually captures, and where the fault lines lie between mutual funds and ETFs. From margin management and bid-offer spreads to the limits of liquidity in a product built for growth, this conversation surfaces what it really means to package active strategies for a public wrapper — and what gets lost, or found, in the process.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:08 - Introduction to Corey Hoffstein & Adam Butler09:06 - How Hoffstein and Butler see the trend following industry going forward12:24 - The possibilities and constraints of trading ETFs20:52 - The philosophy behind their trading strategy27:26 - How they calibrate their model to accommodate markets changes32:03 - How they incorporate replication in their strategy35:50 - Their process behind capturing beta46:42 - The benefits of adding a longer tail for markets49:25 - How much volatility can trend followers tolerate?54:23 - How they maintain balance in their trend following portfolio57:37 - Implementing different types of return...

Why are markets still priced as if the old world is coming back? Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine the case for structurally higher yields — not as a risk, but as the regime. Drawing from Alan’s recent writing, they trace how debt levels, policy incentives, and investor complacency have converged into a feedback loop that central banks may no longer control. From Japan’s bond signals to the quiet retreat of fiscal discipline in the U.S., this episode maps a shift that’s already underway. For investors still relying on yesterday’s models, the risk isn’t missing the turn...it’s not seeing that we’ve already made it.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing10:52 - Global Macro Picture: All Roads Lead to Higher Yields17:26 - The Evolution of Economic Policy and Debt Dynamics29:55 - The Influence of Economic Policies on Inflation and Growth40:13 - Market Trends and Investor Sentiment Survey45:08 - Navigating Market Expectations and Historical Trends59:34 - The Importance of Diversification in Investment StrategiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend...

We're diving deep into some serious discussions about the shifting dynamics in Europe, particularly how the political landscape, especially with Trump's influence, is shaking things up. Economists Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels who authored a compelling book on the New World Economy, argue that Trump's policies might actually be a wake-up call for Europe, pushing it to innovate and stand on its own. We explore the concept of multi-globalization, where emerging markets are stepping into the spotlight as global trade partners, and how the geopolitical climate is driving this change. We also touch on the implications of these shifts for global markets and the economy, especially in terms of energy and raw materials. It's a thought-provoking chat that challenges our views on dependency and the future of Europe in a rapidly changing world.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Koen on LinkedIn.Follow Philippe on LinkedIn.Learn more about their book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Welcoming back Koen De Leus & Philippe...

In this episode, Niels and Mark Rzepczynski examine a market where the usual relationships have broken down. Bonds offer no shelter, volatility moves without conviction, and political intervention keeps distorting the signals investors rely on. What once served as protection now feels unreliable. Behind the headlines on tariffs, inflation, and eroding trust in institutions lies a deeper question about how to navigate when the frameworks built for one regime are carried into another. With a balance of macro insights, behavioral nuance, and hard-earned skepticism, this conversation looks at what really drives returns when narratives shift faster than the data.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:13 - What Caught our Attention04:16 - The Impact of Supply Chains on Global Trade08:51 - The Complexities of Trust in Economics17:45 - Understanding Trend Following in Financial Markets27:18 - The Age of Uncertainty32:51 - Understanding Market Uncertainty36:52 - More than One Type of Uncertainty49:53 - The Fallout of Trend Following01:01:22 - The Dynamics of Safe Assets01:02:41 - Transitioning from Concepts to Practical Insights in Trend FollowingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, discussing how the US has thrived and what that means for future investment strategies. Our guests, Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh, share their expertise on market trends, the importance of diversification, and the implications of recent economic shifts. We also explore the complexities of factors like equity risk premium and the evolving role of bonds in an investment portfolio. Join us as we explore these themes and consider what’s next for investors in a changing global landscape. You can read the Global Investment Returns Yearbook here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Elroy on LinkedIn.Follow Kiran on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh09:21 - What kind of feedback do they get from clients?13:04 - Stocks for the long run?17:41 - Is the US losing its grip on its economy?24:08 - Are indicies...

Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies01:11:10 - Navigating Market ChangesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

What if the volatility we’re seeing is not a pause in the cycle, but the start of something lasting? In this episode, Cem Karsan sits down with Jim Bianco to unpack the forces reshaping the market and the political landscape around it. From the roots of labor unrest in 1880s Chicago to rising tariffs and inflation today, they trace how decades of policy widened inequality and fractured the middle. This is a conversation about debt, power, and the limits of the old playbook. The Fed may no longer be able to step in. Passive investing may no longer offer safety. If you are still positioned for the past, this episode is a clear signal to rethink what comes next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Jim on X.Episode TimeStamps: 02:01 - Introduction to Jim Bianco and Bianco Research06:36 - The big macro picture view16:02 - The financial inequality is at an all time high22:51 - The power of generational wealth24:07 - The imbalance of politics - something has to change27:47 - Why we will see a major shift in how we invest soon30:19 - How the economy is changing36:10 - What defines a strong economy?40:58 - What is Trump talking about?45:36 - The outlook of the economy53:33 - The core of the political problems in the US55:16 - How to benefit from the current market...

Today Cem and Niels dissect a world quietly shifting beneath our feet.As markets hum along, Cem explains why the real story lies beneath the surface: a structural liquidity drain, a creeping stagflation that defies familiar playbooks, and a political regime shift few are pricing in. From Buffett’s exit to dollar fragility, elite endowments tapping the bond market, and oil diplomacy with geopolitical undertones—this is a conversation about change in motion.But this episode doesn’t stop at markets. It’s about the narrative arc of societies under stress—about whether the West can summon the unity and courage to face its next great test.Insightful, urgent, and layered - this is the episode you will look back on and say: the clues were all there.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:17 - What has caught our attention recently?06:54 - Industry performance update08:44 - Inflation is coming - what now?16:43 - The Fed is stuck and the Trump administration is changing26:07 - If US debt defaults, what is left?29:32 - Are we experiencing the decline of the dollar?40:19 - The OPEC game43:21 - Reflecting on the conversation with Demetri Kofinas48:33 - What is courage as a society?50:49 - The West is being disunified...on purpose53:22 - Do we actually know who or what the real enemy is?58:58 - Cem's latest market forecastCopyright © 2025 –...

What if the biggest risk in markets today isn’t volatility, inflation, or geopolitics - but the stories we believe to be true? In this unfiltered and thought-provoking episode, Demetri Kofinas joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a piercing conversation that challenges how we process information, construct narratives, and make decisions in uncertain environments. This isn’t about market forecasts - it’s about how easily our thinking can be hijacked. From the corrosive incentives of financial media to the quiet ways conviction becomes cognitive quicksand, Demetri argues that investors today are drowning not in data, but distortion - misled by institutions built to entertain, not enlighten. Yet this episode is more than critique. It offers a path forward - one grounded in introspection, discomfort, and the discipline of intellectual honesty. For anyone managing capital - or simply trying to see clearly in a noisy world—this is a conversation that may shift not just your positions, but your perspective. Because the greatest edge in markets isn’t a model. It’s clarity when others are lost in the fog.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Demetri on X.Episode TimeStamps: 03:21 - Introduction to Demetri Kofinas04:39 - The era of financial nihilism11:44 - The birth of a radical optimism?20:10 - The risk of not heeding the call26:16 - The dark side of smoothing the business cycle29:14...

This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial markets in April and how that affected Trend Followers, as well as how Rob navigated the last 12 months as a trend follower. Plus, we explore the intriguing topic of safe haven assets, questioning if traditional choices like U.S. treasury bonds still hold up under pressure. We also explore a paper that the discuss the pros and cons of simplicity over complexity in strategy design.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?06:59 - Society is going crazy09:47 - Industry performance update16:22 - How to capture the bounce in trailing stops23:20 - Industry performance numbers25:18 - Q1, Niall: What books would you recommend for a young quant entering the CTA space today?29:05 - Reviewing Rob's annual trend following performance36:26 - Should we start to rethink our approach to drawdowns?40:45 - How do we stop investors from projecting market expectations to trend following performance44:16 - How Rob defines slippage50:12 - What if we base our trend system on one indicator?54:18 - Does this trend following thing still work?58:56 - Getting to know the founders of trend...

What if the most dangerous thing in the global economy isn’t a shock — but the quiet collapse of the frameworks we still rely on?In this rare, unfiltered conversation, Kenneth Rogoff — Harvard professor and former IMF Chief Economist — joins Kevin Coldiron to confront the reality that’s too uncomfortable for most policymakers to admit:The world has changed. The models haven’t.Rogoff explores what happens when inflation refuses to respond, debt compounds beneath the surface, AI reshapes productivity, and geopolitics redraws the map — while central banks keep playing by yesterday’s rules.This isn’t a call for panic. It’s a call for intellectual honesty.Because in a world where the past no longer explains the present, clarity is the only edge that matters.If you manage capital — or ideas — in a world built on assumptions, this episode is for you.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Kenneth on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:01 - Introduction to Kenneth Rogoff03:04 - What is at stake if the dollar loses its...

This episode is all about exploring the intricacies of market behavior, how trends shift, and what that means for our investment strategies. We’re having a serious chat about the impact of recent market fluctuations and how they influence our approaches to trend following. Together with Nick Baltas, we’ll touch on the dynamics of crowding in trades and how that shapes investor sentiment. So, grab your headphones and get ready for a straightforward, no-nonsense journey through the latest trends and insights in the investing world.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:59 - What has caught our attention recently?09:44 - We are entering an era of new market drivers15:31 - Why gold might be overrated17:34 - The challenges that investors are facing at the moment21:26 - Pension funds - reasons for concern?25:05 - Industry performance update27:08 - How Baltas' models react to the current markets30:46 - Industry performance numbers32:57 - Q1, Tim: Should an allocator into trend following strategies keep holding on to the winners or switch between trend following strategies?43:35 - Q1.1, Tim: Based on his models, where does Nick currently see crowded trades, and what is his assessment on crowdedness / positioning in equities where things have been particularly choppy?47:15 - Q2, Dimitri: I’m curious whether Nick sees banks allocating more resources to systematic strategies in credit over the...

Today, we're diving deep into the world of commodities with Calculo Capital, a short-term quantitative hedge fund based in Denmark. Our guests, Philip Engel Carlsson and Ole Hansen, share their insights on how they navigate the fast-paced commodity markets using machine learning techniques. We explore how their focus on liquid markets and short holding periods allows them to capitalize on price movements driven by supply and demand imbalances. The conversation also touches on the current trends in commodities, like the rising demand for precious metals and the impact of geopolitical events. Join us as we uncover the strategies behind Calculo's approach and what sets them apart in the investment landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Ole on LinkedIn.Follow Philip on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:08 - Introduction to Calculo Capital03:53 - The state of today's commodity markets10:35 - Commodity performance numbers11:34 - What is driving the increased performance in the precious metal markets?15:35 - How the commodity performance impacts the way Calculo Capital is trading16:48 - Why do Calculo Capital only focus on commodity...

In this episode, we explore the current market dynamics and discuss Katy Kaminski's latest research paper on crisis and correction alpha, which provides insights into how CTA strategies are navigating turbulent times. We also touch on the importance of understanding how trends shift and the implications for various asset classes. From examining the impact of correlation and volatility in risk management to discussing the nuances of different trading speeds, we aim to equip you with a clearer perspective on what to expect from these time tested strategies, which forms part of the latest wave of Portable Alpha offerings. Join us, as we find out how you can uncover opportunities in these challenging market conditions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?06:58 - Industry performance update08:33 - What are the most interesting markets according to Kaminski?14:06 - Industry performance numbers15:31 - Crisis or correction?22:04 - A historical perspective - we have been here before..28:50 - Crisis alpha or Chaos alpha?33:01 - Why are managers' performance so different this time?39:20 - It's all about the long game41:42 - The trend following trading speed is shifting50:18 - Should markets be treated differently in terms of speed?52:18 - Advice for building strong trend...

Discover how to navigate the complexities of personal and professional decisions through the lens of behavioral economics. Kevin Coldiron speaks with Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the book "Hate the Game," who shares insights on using economic principles to tackle everyday challenges, from negotiating salaries to understanding workplace dynamics. They explore the importance of empathy and perspective-taking in decision-making, emphasizing that understanding the rules of the economic game can empower individuals to succeed despite systemic inequalities. Fairweather discusses her own journey in economics and the lessons learned from her experiences, including the value of strategic thinking in competitive environments. This conversation is not only enlightening but also serves as a practical guide for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills and career trajectory.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Daryl on X and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Daryl Fairweather07:30 - Choosing games and assessing probabilities13:14 - How do you know if your boss is a jerk?14:03 - Why it is important to be aware of how you present...

Together with Yoav Git, we’ll explore how market conditions are shifting and what that means for investors, especially in light of recent bond market movements. It’s been a wild ride lately, with unexpected changes in correlations between stocks and bonds, and we’re here to break it all down. We’ll also touch on the implications for trend-following strategies and how they can adapt in these turbulent times. So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious, hang tight as we unravel these complex topics together!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:21 - What has caught our attention recently?04:39 - Are there more to the Trump Tariffs than meets the eyes?09:53 - What is actually a safe haven asset today?11:50 - Industry performance update15:15 - Git's trend following perspective on fixed income17:25 - Trend following performance numbers21:39 - What you can expect from trend following during a crisis period30:31 - What we can learn from the current economic events34:27 - Key insights to achieving diversification40:40 - Achieving better performance through trend predictors45:01 - How CTAs interpret diversification in a unique way50:03 - Are we experiencing more dispersion today than previously?57:57 - The symbiotic relation between time and price in a trend following...

Today, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunne and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play a crucial role in managing risk while seeking out returns.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Razvan on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:01:28 - Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital06:50 - A critical time for portable alpha products18:25 - The evolution of the sophistication of investors25:44 - Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio33:07 - Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies?37:07 - The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective45:14 - The total portfolio approach52:48 - Razvan's perspective on replication strategies58:14 - Key advice for working with...

Together with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:24 - What has caught our attention recently?12:58 - The damage of leveraged ETF products15:38 - Reflecting on the trend following performance of Q125:18 - Industry performance numbers26:42 - Super determinism - how it impacts our trading41:59 - The relationship between science, trend following and the universe55:36 - Understanding complex adaptive systems as a trend follower01:13:36 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I...

In the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the CBOE. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - Introduction to Mike Green07:39 - How and why 0DTE options have changed the investing landscape17:23 - Implied volatility is changing - what does it mean for investors?25:18 - How periods of relative stability impact investor behaviour31:03 - The unwind of passives - is the system under pressure?39:51 - What are prices actually telling us?43:31 - Why this cycle might be different48:52 - What makes a long lasting investor?54:17 - A deep dive into passive flows57:18 - Individualism in investing - are we becoming too separated?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know...

Alan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?04:09 - Industry performance update06:22 - How markets and managers respond to tariffs09:39 - Are we talking ourselves into a recession?12:55 - Why the distinction between risk and uncertainty is important16:26 - What is price telling us about market noise?24:06 - How quant traders should approach uncertainty28:59 - How the current economic landscape shapes systematic trading31:52 - Feedback loops, reaction functions and monetary policy36:05 - Advice for dealing with uncertainty as an investor41:36 - Curiosity as a characteristic in fund...

Our guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more uncertainty in monetary policy actually better for long-run economic stability? We tackle all these questions as we explore Dr. Downey’s view that the way we govern central banks needs to change.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Learn more about Leah on her website and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Leah Rose Downey08:36 - A comic flimsy ground10:34 - Examples of the tension between legislators and Fed15:21 - Legislators have become a weak economic

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?04:14 - A new era for Germany?10:02 - The ETF space is on fire11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective21:39 - Industry performance update27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?41:07...

Today, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on the evolving landscape of systematic trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Graham on LinkedIn.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:04:02 - Introduction to Yoav Git06:16 - The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship12:15 - What is common about people working at Man AHL?15:47 - Should you focus on single or multi asset classes?24:58 - The state and outlook for fixed income and29:47 - Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative...

Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:47 - What has caught our attention recently?06:11 - Industry performance update14:30 - Wild moves in markets16:55 - Trump dumps on Trump trade26:23 - A wealth of products - is it just a phase?35:16 - The developments in the CTA space36:21 - Are we trying to engineer the impossible?41:45 - The pros and cons of inflection points vs short term models50:28 - Why do CTAs replicate the way they do?57:36 - Are the new ETFs threatening the CTA franchise?01:01:56 - Discussing performance in the CTA space01:09:22 - The use of QIS strategies in trend following01:13:52 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're...

Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about David here.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to David Giroux and T. Rowe Price09:00 - Are mostly sectors overvalued?11:43 - What has driven the change in valuations?13:48 - How Giroux determines how much risk to allocate in markets18:19 - The outlook for equity returns and Giroux stance on AI21:42 - The relationship between market meltdowns and interest rates23:29 - Giroux's outlook for inflation28:32 - How Giroux uses his past experience to predict markets31:37 - How Giroux constructs stock portfolios35:35 -...

Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads07:09 - Industry performance update09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation?35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order?42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy57:20 - The importance of Turkey's position and military power58:49 - Oil is in a weird spot at the moment01:03:00 - Could extreme market drops cause...

Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we're about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:32 - A big picture framework - what has changed since our last conversation?09:32 - Why are commodities so cheap today?17:03 - Why is now the moment to go long?31:04 - We are in a huge carry trade47:04 - Commodities are taking over another role51:15 - Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals?58:40 - It will end badly for millennials01:04:09 - Conspiracy theories in the gold industry01:06:55 - The outlook for the U.S energy...

In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:50 - What has caught our attention recently?06:09 - Industry performance update13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems?18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year?25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors?28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”?32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following?36:24 - The beta of trend following and how to access it44:05 - Combing index- and mechanical replication50:58 - The pitfalls of replication...

Our guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools used to influence these chokepoints are permanent and are starting to form the contours of the new global economy that will persist for the coming decades. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Edward on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Edward Fishman08:24 - The failures of economic warfare14:04 - What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic19:26 - Who even want to work at banks nowadays?22:10 - The most successful sanction in modern times27:02 - The dangers of sanctions, export

With global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore why trend following remains a powerful tool for generating "crisis alpha." Buckle up for a fascinating conversation!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Graham on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:11 - What has caught our attention recently?03:27 - Are kids too worried about the state of the world?05:58 - Our current observations on trend10:54 - How to capture the moves in the European energy markets13:05 - Valuable insights on alternative markets17:11 - Are alternative markets trending better?23:02 - The state of liquidity in the industry25:52 - How Man AHL approaches crypto29:47 - Industry performance update31:42 - Q1, Rick: Is a cross-over system typically the primary tool for Trend?37:14 - The origins of...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally. Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital asset hedge fund, how they differ from traditional asset hedge fund pod shops, and how the attract and find new PMs to work with them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Follow Anatoly on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto08:10 - A trip down memory crypto lane12:25 - Why is the basis still so wide on crypto?15:07 - The state of alpha in the crypto space18:23 - What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run?19:56 - How they...

Join us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What on earth is going on with gold?04:58 - The hidden fees of the hedge fund world11:25 - Industry performance update15:00 - Q1, David: Since Rob's book was published, several multi-asset leveraged ETFs have become available. Do you think these products have a place in a long-term portfolio? If so, what kind of allocation would you consider reasonable?21:17 - Q2, Carlos: Imagine a systematically traded trend following account starting with $100k across 10 markets. Over time, the account grows to $200k. Would it generally be “better” to split the capital into two separate and different trading strategies (each trading 10 instruments), or to add more instruments/markets to the existing strategy for greater market diversification?24:49 - Q3, Chris: Does the use of ETFs to backtest Rob’s trend following strategies provide an accurate representation of performance?29:41 - Q4, Steve: Any pointers on how...

In this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his manager due diligence process, including his unique approach of sitting on the trading floor with hedge fund managers to gain a deeper understanding of their strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Alexander de Bruin09:08 - The clients and portfolios that Edmond de Rothschild13:24 - Should the 60/40 portfolio be revamped?15:45 - de Bruin's approach to implementing new strategies19:46 - How de Bruin deal with the paranoia of something going wrong22:33 - Is there a place for multi-strat approaches?25:14 - The challenges of managing risk as a multi-strat manager26:59 - How hedge funds deal with portfolio constraints29:25 - Opportunities and risks in private markets35:37 - How high...

Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing16:07 - Industry performance update19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 202523:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies?30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment

Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mark on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years?14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises?16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to government spending19:58 - How they apply the 5 structural trends in a broad...

Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?06:20 - Industry performance update11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing56:08 - The core of trend following58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers01:00:03 - The business of trend following01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following01:08:05 - The times have changed - why is trend following more important than ever?01:11:22 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025

Today, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners to rethink traditional economic narratives and consider how collective actions can lead to improved outcomes for everyone.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Matthew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:08 - Introduction to Matthew Klein05:32 - Expanding the definition of trade13:45 - The dynamic between growth and productivity17:04 - The state of the German economy and how it could be improved22:42 - Klein's perspective on the development of the bond markets28:49 - Klein's outlook for inflation and interest rates34:36 - Are we approaching a consumer credit crisis?38:49 - Is there a productivity boom in...

Today, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties that can affect their models. The episode wraps up with reflections on the role of institutional arrangements and how they can impact market outcomes in a rapidly changing environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:16 - A flurry of activities04:05 - The state of VIX and how newspapers and media measure uncertainty09:11 - How do trend followers take advantage of the uncertainty in markets?12:50 - What are the components of the regime shift?16:04 - The implications of the regime shift17:57 - Industry performance update19:21 - The state of bond markets from an uncertainty perspective21:16 - Do...

Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on LinkedIn.Read David's report here.Episode TimeStamps: 01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 202408:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge?15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment22:51 -

Today, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the episode serves as a timely reminder of the importance of strategic asset allocation in navigating today's complex market environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:55 - What has caught our attention recently?02:41 - Why has the German economy changed so much?10:20 - A world of unexpected political events13:57 - How can there be a beta if managers are so different?16:06 - The state of the global macro environment25:10 - Industry performance update28:10 - Are investors relying too much on past performance?35:01 - Are we seeing signs of a catastrophic bubble?40:14 - 2025 - a deja vu to 1995?42:24 - Advice for constructing a robust trend following portfolio54:49...

Bill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading models, ultimately advocating for a strategy that embraces empirical success without excessive optimization.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Bill on X.Episode TimeStamps: 02:17 - Introduction to Bill Gebhardt06:35 - No pain, no gain08:40 - Why are they called 10Dynamics?10:08 - What is their philosophy behind how markets work?12:24 - Are the signals that they run based on trend following?13:47 - How they handle the operational complexity of their system18:15 - How they assess the validity of their data20:39 - Exploring the technical details behind the execution of their...

Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?06:39 - Industry performance update08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?55:31 -...

William Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of artificial intelligence in the financial world. By weaving in personal anecdotes and stories, William illustrate how to navigate uncertainty and position oneself for long-term success while maintaining a focus on what truly matters in life.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow William on X and read his book.Episode Timestamps:01:42 - Catching up since our last conversation07:22 - The importance of having connection and belonging along the path13:51 - The power of friendships20:21 - A key component to achieve success22:20 - The pitfalls of becoming successful26:47 - How psychology influences investment decisions and how to overcome biases34:23 - Common biases among successful...

Together with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that could attract investors reluctant to engage with traditional commodity exposure. With insights into the current market environment and the importance of adaptability, this episode provides valuable perspectives for anyone interested in systematic investing and the future of CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 01:20 - Our expectations going into 202507:00 - What to do when bonds are collapsing10:21 - Industry performance update11:49 - A deep dive into indices17:36 - The mechanisms behind creating an index23:13 - What returns can you expect from a CTA replication index?27:21 - What are the average fees in today's...

Our guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals including her work to establish a new non-partisan institute to provide accurate and secure data available to everyone. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Julia on LinkedIn and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - Introduction to Julia Lane03:42 - We need to rethink how we generate trustworthy data12:49 - How does data collection look like in the U.S?18:14 - How do we find out what firms are working in artificial intelligence?24:53 - How Lane believes we can solve the challenges of collecting trustworthy data30:38 - How you maintain trust...

Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential resurgence of alternative investments and shifts in global economic relations. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Nick on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nbaltas/?originalSubdomain=uk" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ many strategies away from rules-based trend following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Tillmann on LinkedIn.Learn more about J8 Capital.Episode TimeStamps: 16:16 - Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management04:06 - Why did they start J8 Capital?05:09 - What got them interested in a systematic approach?09:12 - The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy13:53 - Multiple different systems or one big system?16:25 - Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy?21:36 - Managing risk in arbitrage...

This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Nick on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nbaltas/?originalSubdomain=uk" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Ed on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral...

Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?02:13 - Industry performance update03:48 - Our takeaways from 202409:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year?14:15 - Concluding on 202415:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 202420:18 - Optimism for the managed futures...

Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Paul on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan06:02 - The state of the European economy09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?29:04 - An economic plague in the UK34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?44:32 - The potential for supply...

Today, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic investing, the episode underscores the need for adaptive strategies in an unpredictable economic environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - What has caught our attention recently?02:04 - Are single stocks signaling trouble?05:00 - Major divergence in market performance globally08:06 - Industry performance update09:06 - Our key observations from 202411:24 - Advice for getting your market capacity right15:33 - Our thoughts on trading speed17:14 - Don't get too caught up on specific narratives18:38 - Industry performance numbers20:02 - How Idiosyncratic risk works26:55 - Setting up the optimal defense28:31 - Don't be...

Our guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We end with an overview of Daniel’s new research on the three principles that seem to drive the most purposeful lives.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Daniel on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Daniel Crosby07:55 - What caused Crosby to write his book?11:28 - How would Crosby like...

Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?12:14 - Industry performance update17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig37:04 - The hidden risks of financial markets48:47 - Why Value at Risk (VaR) models makes more sense than having stops56:35 - The inevitable outcome of...

Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Keith on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough05:01 - From hedge fund to research07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals21:26 - McCullough's...

Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.Add to Show Notes-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?05:50 - Industry performance update07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 202517:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 202539:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?48:22 -...

In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders15:35 - An example of how they handle flow18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the...

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?05:43 - Industry performance update10:17 - New times for bonds14:37 - The issue is always in the details19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?43:27 - A kind and a wicked...

Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Carola on LinkedIn and <a...

Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?06:26 - An analysis of the election11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome18:11 - A global macro perspective28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?31:39 - Industry performance update37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio...

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Stephen on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations27:26 - The state of the labour...

In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?03:30 - Industry performance update04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event16:49 - Picking the right managers19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality26:53 - Different products for different market segments33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?53:49 - Tell me what you...

Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jason on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman04:28 - The state of the economy04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?09:40 - The outlook for inflation12:34 - A move in the right direction?14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful...

Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked10:37 - An economic Kayfabe13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?18:44 - Industry performance update20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?26:13 - Q1.2...

In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Episode TimeStamps: 02:30 - Introduction03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis06:34 - Can trading be taught?08:50 - The story behind the trading rules12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?22:01...

Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes07:47 - Industry performance update09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the...

Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?36:48 -...

This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida03:39 - A rough time for trend following08:39 - Industry performance update12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following01:06:22 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden06:06 - A whole year without cash08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?12:40 - The implications of a cashless society23:53 - A big hurdle26:04 - Building a better mouse trap28:08...

Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?07:37 - Industry performance update09:02 - Reflecting on August and September12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?21:32 - Finding the right trading speed24:15 - Out-performing is a long game27:47 - Its time to move direction29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time39:24 -...

Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Amy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski08:02 - How they think about manager selection09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?11:40 - How they assess their investment objective13:07 - How they manage risk14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio17:11...

In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:17 - Industry performance update05:36 - Seasonality in markets17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?46:19 - A global conflict perspective50:40 - How the election might impact commodities52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over57:13 - Dangerous...

In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Kevin on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?45:09 -...

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?04:18 - Industry performance update09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech23:39 - The KuU framework29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers47:05 - Working with the 3 C's57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an indexCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt

This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Catching up05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?12:58 - The state of the metal sector22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading28:41 - Getting the timing right42:51 - It's all about volatility44:38 - Playing the long game47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?52:40 - A carry trade bubble54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast01:08:40 -...

In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds19:58 - The big macro picture27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)34:11 - The carry unwind41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your...

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm15:15 - The new area of tightness18:27 - It is all about labour cost23:46 - The deflationary power of technology26:46 - The outlook of the labour market32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of...

Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:18 - What has caught our attention recently?02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?10:45 - Industry performance update14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?39:05 - A deep dive into ETFs48:52 - An example of a worst case scenario ETF53:13 - Can't we just buy a CTA...

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?12:17 - The last 15 years from a...

As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?04:17 - Industry performance update08:07 - Just another August?12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation31:56 - Staying in sync35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies43:42 - A world premiere!51:05 - An index madness53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things56:02 - How the new index worksCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?07:29 - Signs of weakness?09:31 - The key indicators of weakness12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?15:26 - Assessing the savings rate17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?22:00 - Challenges in the banking system24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind...

Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?11:48 - Industry performance update18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolioCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have...

In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service.  -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills09:05 - What causes revolutions?12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining...

Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?02:15 - Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?05:37 - Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?08:57 - Industry performance update17:19 - Connecting the dots23:35 - Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?27:59 - Conditional return distribution - what and why?30:04 - Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle35:29 - The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed42:42 - Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry47:29 - Did the VIX really hit 65?55:34 - Sticking to the processCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key...

Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow John on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds?08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past?13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations18:13 - More art than science19:15 - Define your objectives clearly20:51 - A...

Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events".-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?03:49 - Industry performance update05:37 - An eventful week11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?26:40 - How trend following performs according to data29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem?54:58 - The evolution of risk management01:02:10 - A recap of this week's headlinesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All...

Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Aswath on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?04:47 - How AI will impact the economy10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks14:36 - How to distinguish AI stocks from each other17:58 - A sticky...

Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?03:38 - A surprise question for Cem06:26 - Industry performance update08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?34:30 - An unfathomable situation38:38 - The mechanisms behind market moves47:14 - More conflict incoming?50:37 - What causes stress in the financial...

In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries31:07 - Is a fully circular...

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?06:20 - Bills = money?09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?13:38 - Industry performance update16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacyCopyright

Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?01:02:31 - A "Golden" ideaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG

Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:02 - What has been on our radar recently?05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election19:50 - An unsustainable path24:37 - Industry performance update27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum"48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation01:00:34 - Thanks for...

In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen05:45 - Was it all about luck?07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?13:56 - The political pressure on central banks16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?29:50 -...

Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Graham on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson03:40 - How Graham came across trend following04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance20:45 - Industry performance update22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following31:46 - Which regions or countries are most...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Cole on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?15:41 - Understanding your investor base18:07 - Understanding their correlation19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?27:52 - How they approach dividends29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?32:36...

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:59 - Industry performance update06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?19:57 - When does it all end?24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing...

Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Claudia on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?12:37 - Putting the data together18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate40:42 - The state of physical...

This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:23 - What has caught our attention recently?03:00 - Industry performance update05:32 - Reversions incoming?07:06 - Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm14:20 - Getting the speed right17:37 - Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?24:32 - Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica38:16 - Capping the beta45:17 - The hidden market timing of CTAs50:23 - The benefits of adding carry to your portfolioCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to...

Join us as Cem Karsan and I explore China's plan for global dominance with retired General Robert Spalding, author of "War Without Rules." General Spalding discusses the rising tensions between China and the West, pointing out warning signs from the past two decades and mistakes made by the West. We delve into China's long-term strategy for world domination and its impact on investment strategies. We also question if TikTok is being used by China as a weapon against the West. Additionally, we examine the decline of democracy, the rise of autocracy, and the challenges democracies face in competing with autocracies. Finally, General Spalding highlights the importance of protecting digital infrastructure from cyber threats and decentralizing it for resilient communication, a mission he passionately pursues with his company, SEMPRE.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Robert on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 01:49 - Introduction to General Robert Spalding03:38 - What did Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?08:44 - Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?10:33 - A visionary perspective15:37 - TikTok - The ultimate weapon?21:37 - Is the West as "bad" as China?30:49 - How do the West compete...

Today, Rob Carver shares his insights on buying put options as a tail risk strategy and how trend following can also play a part in tail risk protection...but perhaps not they way some investors may think. Rob also shares his advice for using carry in your strategies when trading rolling futures contracts. We then pivot to hear Rob's thoughts on why the U.S. election appears to be the perfect storm, and we discuss what the outcome of the election will mean for the economy. Rob also explain why he is sceptical about the AI hype and the liability issues that AI poses. Lastly, we discuss the challenges of setting the right level of fees as a manager and how investors may complain about the higher level of fees the multi-billion $ managers charge...yet still chose to invest with them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:26 - A quick talk on football (soccer)02:09 - What has been on our radar recently?05:26 - An update on Rob's portfolio.?09:37 - Industry performance update12:07 - Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?26:51 - Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one33:39 - A discussion on elections38:36 - The U.S election - a perfect storm?44:41 - Should you be cautious about the AI hype?57:04 - Finding the right level of fees that investors should...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?14:18 - The perfect match?15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the...

Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?04:03 - Industry performance update07:50 - Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?11:40 - Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"Resources discussed in this Episode:SI300: Optimal Trend Following Rules PaperCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:05 - Introduction to Charles Duhigg06:30 - Every conversation is a negotiation09:21 - It takes two to tango?11:09 - The importance of listening13:42 -...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?21:35 - Industry performance update23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:...

Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Bob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework10:46 - The outlook for interest rates15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation25:48 - The role of demographics30:04 - A collective memory32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification42:22 - How to get

Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has been on our radar recently?02:56 - Industry performance update07:41 - Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space13:40 - Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?17:32 - Why include ETFs in your portfolio?21:43 - Use cases for ETFs25:00 - How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?28:58 - Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?32:01 - Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?34:33 - The different paths into the ETF space40:57 - How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products43:30 -...

Join Alan Dunne in conversation with Gary Gerstle, Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Rise and Fall of The Neoliberal Order", as they delve into the shifting landscape of the global political order. From the decline of the New Deal Order to the ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, Gary traces the trajectory of the Neoliberal Order and its impact on contemporary society. Exploring the nuances of Bidenomics, they analyse the sustainability of current fiscal and industrial policies amidst rising inequality and geopolitical tensions. Gary shares insights on the potential rise of authoritarianism worldwide, the implications of protectionism, and the prospect of increased antitrust activism in the US. Finally, they turn their attention to the upcoming US presidential elections, examining the contenders and the pivotal factors that could shape the outcome.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on XFollow Gary on XEpisode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Garry Gerstle05:50 - Understanding political order and neoliberalism12:04 - How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?20:06 - What will drive the new political order?29:01 - How the West's approach to China has changed36:19 - Do banks have too much power?43:34 - Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?47:24 - The 4...

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?06:58 - Is OpenAI falling apart?09:19 - U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care?11:52 - What is neoliberalism?12:54 - Unpacking the current global macro landscape19:07 - Are central banks defeating their own purpose?22:42 - Industry performance update25:39 - What is going on with quant macro?32:00 - Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze?34:39 - How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?37:43 - Any allocation to whiskey?39:31 - Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?47:13 - Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay49:46

In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book.Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:16 - Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels06:22 - Why haven't we seen higher productivity?12:11 -...

Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?12:17 - Discussing the data18:30 - Industry performance update21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager36:31 - The fallacy of consensus40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower43:14 - Is price truth?47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how?54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin06:31 - A noticeable shift?08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?24:24 - Balancing competing forces30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios33:55 - Do they consider...

Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?59:09 - Thanks for...

In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Tad on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?19:52 - Why not the traditional route?23:14 - How are they allocated?27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?40:18 - Micro or macro?45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in...

Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?06:53 - A recap of April10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following14:30 - The interesting commodities18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 202222:51 - How commodity storage functions29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?47:06 - Manual or systematized?48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?54:16 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Christian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?32:16 - How election periods affect the economy40:22 - A wall of worry43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce...

Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?03:11 - Industry performance update05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro18:09 - Important market development recently?31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios35:48 - The structure of markets42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump56:49 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways

Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marko on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Marko's current macro framework07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane31:48 - The election - a macro black hole36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global...

Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?06:15 - Industry performance update09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hangerCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?07:19 - What drives the cycles?09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?14:39 - Interpreting the signals17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in...

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?08:33 - Industry performance update16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach46:44 - What about the fees?50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?58:45 - The impact of crises01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter01:08:26 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Todd on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital05:43 - A global macro perspective09:45 - How has the industry evolved?13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?05:38 - Industry performance update06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following16:58 - Industry performance update continued18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?30:51 - A period of normalcy34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?46:22 - Stacking returns -...

Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec07:06 - A new initiative10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?12:40 - What goes into which bucket?14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio18:38 - How they approach trend following21:58 - Why do they use...

Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman03:54 - Things are changing09:54 - Industry performance update13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?28:31 - Less markets = better performance?30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index45:09 - A euphoric...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia. Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Tony on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser04:07 - An interesting journey16:50 - A difficult space for alpha20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?45:28 - A shock to the system49:43 - Where does the low correlation come...

Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?20:41 - Industry performance update24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook32:29 - Equities are here for the long term37:57 - All in on equities?44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?53:28 - Choosing the right strategy58:00 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Ricardo on LinkedInFollow Pedro on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro06:18 -...

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?06:24 - Industry performance update07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?25:25 - The importance of skewness31:06 - Mind the timeframe34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)38:15 - No pain, no gain...43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)47:33 - Dealing with a world in...

Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Tor on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?22:55 - Translating trends into trades24:47 -...

This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?06:31 - Industry performance update13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based...

In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?19:10 - How...

Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?05:13 - Industry performance update08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets18:08 - Is the VIX broken?24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's39:15 - What is going on with flows?47:55 - The rise of meme stocks52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar59:59 - A wild ride for Japan01:05:54 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover...

Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?09:16 - Their investment philosophy14:33 - A skepticism about equities?17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets28:20 - Where lies the most risk?30:25 - Opportunities...

Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown05:35 - Industry performance update07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?14:24 - The state of the industry18:17 - Is trend following flopping?27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios36:15 - Pick your battles49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?01:04:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedInFollow Bowmoor Capital.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot05:19 - How did they get into investing?09:43 - Why trend following?13:55 - Solving the market puzzle15:36 - How they designed their strategy?18:46 - The reason for their market selection24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?31:13 - How did they design their system?39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work...

Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy08:33 - Industry performance update11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance44:42 - Is bigger always better?52:43 - The importance of system diversification01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market01:09:41 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I

Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Kiril's work on 13D.Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?14:30 - Is China still investable?17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?27:57 - The

Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:53 - A dark time04:24 - Industry performance update10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?53:22 - An update on the ETF space56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?01:06:32 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here...

Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Frances on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?20:43 - Where are the weak spots?23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?59:35 - Advice

Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?02:27 - Industry performance update06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat12:14 - The drivers of price17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period22:48 - Managers have different personalities29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis39:32 - More markets = better returns?44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?54:34 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK SI281: History Shows What to Expect from Trend-Following...

In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson10:27 - The importance of psychological safety15:04 - The different types of failure18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?22:54 - The idea of reframing25:04 - Practicing reframing27:06 - Has the way students work changed?30:25 - The...

As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?03:26 - The importance of liquidity06:39 - The global macro picture11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?16:10 - What about China?21:24 - Industry performance update24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?57:28 - The outlook of the next decade01:02:32 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...

Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Casey on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?12:04 - Who are their clients?12:45 - How do they build their strategies?14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers21:49...

In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - A funny story from Katy02:34 - An important shout-out03:42 - A rare event in Denmark06:55 - Industry performance update08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?32:53 - Looking back at 202337:48 - An unusual year43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?51:11 - What does your position mean?54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?56:10 - Thanks for...

Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?31:35 - A system under pressure38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility sellingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...

Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?10:14 - Industry performance update11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin01:04:31 - Looking into 202401:08:38 - Thanks...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Scott on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach31:26 -...

Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?03:02 - Industry performance update06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?32:19 - Under the hood of inflation34:23 - What is normal?39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David...

In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?16:32 - Could we have another 2022?18:56 - Having metrics for success26:50 - Managing cash...

In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable...

Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias24:11 - The...

Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on <a...

In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Rob on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:10 - Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book04:37 - Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book...

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:10 - What's been on our radar recently?05:09 - Industry performance update06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends42:19 - Know when to be long and short45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio01:03:57 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK 274: Are TF CTAs truly long vol?<a...

AI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Klee on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 03:31 - Introduction to Klee Irwin07:43 - Quantum technology and the double-slit experiment23:53 - The retro causality experiment26:49 - Understanding the self-simulation hypothesis50:16 - What is going on with AI?59:48 - Where can you follow Klee Irwin?01:02:10 - Key takeaways from NielsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?03:08 - Industry performance update08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?13:36 - Trading with different models15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets33:59 - Self organization36:33 - Adaption and evolution40:10 - Feedback loops43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics01:01:14 - Summing it all up01:04:48 - What's next?Copyright © 2025 –...

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow David on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly05:44 - What has become of the recession?08:38 - Are we missing an accident?11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?17:15 - What happened to the bond market?19:31 - High debt and high...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke".-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:35 - What has caught our attention recently?04:04 - Industry performance update08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures?13:19 - A turn away from trend?18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees?48:17 - The great underestimated risk51:30 - What drives asset flows?01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track?01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM01:11:15 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Anant on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?17:07 - An example of one of their trades21:17 - Staying away from the physical side23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades27:18 - Managing the cost of trades29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19...

Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?02:20 - Industry performance update04:51 - What is going on in the markets?09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs11:45 - Confusion in the markets14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation?20:24 - Mixed signals22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?25:33 - Modeling with personality32:25 - Losers create diversification36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models?50:34 - Does new = better?56:42 - Getting the backtest and transactions costs right59:31 -...

Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dario on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?12:27 - Where are we now?17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?26:37 - A sticky inflation28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?32:52 - A concern for real-estate?38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?46:21 - Are central bankers...

Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?09:44 - Industry performance update15:33 - A new war in sight?21:17 - News about the US savings rate23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power01:03:35 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key...

Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Maia on LinkedInFollow Faheem on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?11:35 - What is driving carry trading?15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?24:40 - What is their core client...

Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?04:24 - A precursor for the conversation05:21 - Industry performance update07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"16:06 - The results of the paper21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change42:52 - Different people, different perspectives46:39 - Doing what happens next48:12 - Best...

Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Edward on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis29:08 - Will AI save us?32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this...

Cem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, Cem explains how the incoming holiday season acts as a volatility compression mechanism, what he took away from the recent CBOE RMC Conference and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:08 - What has been on Cem's radar recently?03:15 - Industry performance update05:25 - Q1, Tim: What systematic strategies would Cem suggest for hedging risk from a risk premia strategy with a trend following bias?12:20 - Q2, Rick: Does Cem view the Jan 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point (to the downside)?15:52 - What is new in the macro space?23:16 - Is the MOVE index behaving as it should?27:43 - Is Japan a joker when it comes to interest rates?32:17 - Hidden dangers?36:12 - Wars - a driver of spending, deficits and inflation40:28 - What current Flows are telling us45:48 - Cem's takeaways from the CBOE RMC Conference01:02:33 - Thanks for listeningCopyright ©...

You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads.Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Mauritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to the new series03:28 - Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management09:53 - A deep dive into the South African market16:26 - What kind of trader is Polar Star Management?19:55 - Entering and exiting trades23:37 - How PolarStar Management establishes...

In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What is happening in Australia at the moment?07:53 - The investment landscape is changing09:57 - Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed13:17 - Industry performance update16:25 - Why does OJ keep rising?19:54 - There is no "one size fits all" approaches26:44 - How does cross-sectional momentum work?31:12 - The importance of correlation40:26 - Nuancing "treating all markets equally"48:00 - The use of continuous signals53:03 - How does absolute momentum works?59:13 - Discussing sample size01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their conclusion01:08:03 - Single...

Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Matt on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:54 - Introduction to Matt Smith07:51 - The resilience of the economy11:50 - Matt's portfolio construction process16:23 - Skepticism about the goldilocks21:57 - The outlook for inflation30:56 - The risk and fear of structural inflation40:27 - What we can learn from history46:19 - The process of finding insights from history51:09 - Matt's perspective on financial repression54:57 - Advice for...

Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:00 - Update on recent events?09:13 - Industry performance update09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following42:15 - Trading with different account sizes45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy51:45 - Using...

There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Buy Larry's books here.Episode TimeStamps: 03:27 - Introduction to Larry Hancock05:34 - How classified programs work in the U.S13:23 - Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?17:09 - UAP activity around nuclear technology22:33 - What are "they" interested in?24:03 - The physics of UAPs29:35 - Are UAP crashes real?34:19 - The unusualness of the UAP Disclosure Act38:50 - Are UAP encounters

Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?17:28 - Adding carry to trend22:52 - How to use utility functions25:08 - Defining the variables28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks47:48 - Skewness in commodities54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategiesCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Troy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski11:36 - A top-down macro perspective19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?30:47 - Analyzing the alt space35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate40:00 - An overweight of privates?44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio55:09 - Is old...

Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?10:45 - Who is to blame?15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry37:01 - A case of market segmentation?40:00 - Are ETFs the future?46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe52:24 - A discussion on fees54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?58:59 - The...

Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Christian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann04:05 - The global macro perspective08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues21:35 - Is this inflation different?28:15 - The lag of structural effects32:04 - The age of abundance36:45 - Time to shift back to active management43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced...

Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees19:13 - Industry performance update22:28 - How is the industry holding up?25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space28:55 - Performance numbers30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable46:42 - How psychology impacts markets53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower59:49 - A chronological snobbery?01:04:03 - Important announcementCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Helen on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson 06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency 17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?...

Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?04:55 - Industry performance update08:16 - Living with high public debt20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?40:36 - Where returns may go from here?48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes01:00:29 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my...

In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets33:24...

Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?03:02 - Industry performance update04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?41:40 - Paper from Transtrend47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend...

Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability06:19 - Being in the present07:57 - Understanding the confidence map12:08 - How to become confident13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience21:23 - Map it out22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?28:05 - The generational shift30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?36:15 - Is the

Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:20 - What has happened recently?05:51 - Industry performance update?07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?13:55 - How did they test it?17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry01:14:21 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG –

In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Nelson on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory12:29 - A look around the globe17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios39:26 - Advice for investing in South America48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)56:24 - Key takeaways from NielsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?03:43 - Industry performance update06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems13:54 - Taking the bonds out?16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?40:32 - Are there different types of crises?45:55 - A global macro perspective51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?55:37 -...

Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Chen on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?16:44 - The outlook for inflation19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?26:07 - Rates going back to zero?28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production32:57 - China - a deflationary force38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?39:29 - Concerns...

Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?08:04 - Industry perfomance update14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum30:30 - Different implementations, same results45:47 - The role of correlation50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio01:21:04 - Know your manager well01:24:19 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe03:43 - What characterise each turning?17:53 - A generation cliff25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 200827:55 - Cycles are...

Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns08:27 - Industry performance update09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?52:07 - Major moves in markets01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water01:06:07 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In...

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy10:14 - Where is inflation heading?16:24 - A wrong prediction?20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?31:32 - Challenges in the credit space33:33 - The implications of high valuations36:08 - Potential...

Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:38 - Is there a best time to trade?05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?08:36 - Industry performance update10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour?17:04 - The benefit of cash21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback?26:18 - The dispersion within markets32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research39:23 - Stay open minded43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs56:53 - The road to robust models01:00:37 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you...

Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"?15:46 - The Cloud Revolution21:44 - Collecting data with AI28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used?36:05 - Designing material with AI40:08 - Getting more out of technology48:43 - Working with robots52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care57:55 - Key takeaways from NielsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?03:54 - The big macro picture12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?21:13 - A fear of Japanification26:28 - Industry performance update28:39 - A period of dispersion33:36 - Calculating the return expectations41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification01:08:34 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober07:13 - Constructing a new reality11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism17:55 - Understanding consciousness23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind27:14 - The shared death experiences28:51 - What is terminal lucidity?31:50 - The role of psychic abilities38:42 - The road to studying UFOs44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case52:33 - Where is this all going?56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow?01:00:45 - Key takeaways from...

Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.Episode Timestamps:02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process44:41 - The challenges of working with clients48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?54:21 - Can you be a good...

Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?06:28 - Industry performance update07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning17:54 - Is one better than the other?22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?01:00:35 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have...

Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy09:06 - The outlook for real estate12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment25:44...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?04:38 - Industry performance update05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?16:35 - The best approach to trading markets23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?01:08:52 -...

When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Paul on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan13:58 - The current state of Syria18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?27:13 - The challenges that China is facing29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics50:57 - The risk of complex technology56:05 - How do...

Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Update of the week07:50 - Industry performance update10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!45:12 - Trading safely52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew01:05:04 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know...

HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money13:21 - Can it be deflationary?17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect30:29 - The unfairness of inflation37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation...

Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:03 - An update on the Australian economy02:50 - A global macro perspective05:38 - Industry performance update08:39 - A bias towards long term models?20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems54:05 - The stability of markets57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets01:00:32 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I...

Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?10:40 - When is the recession coming?13:13 - The outlook for inflation18:36 - The problem with designification21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and...

Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:45 - The global macro perspective03:07 - Industry performance update04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year09:14 - A deep dive into markets24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays58:33 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have

There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Izabella on Twitter.Follow The Blind Spot.Episode TimeStamps: 03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance?09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by...

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:03 - What happened this week?03:48 - Industry performance update05:21 - Article on momentum gap16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right23:25 - What did not happen this year?32:02 - AI and trend following35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning42:59 - Failure of models52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models56:28 - Being macro aware01:00:35 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow David on Twitter.Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity 08:50 - The tipping point 20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon 29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now? 37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base 42:25 - Evolving into a new human species 50:12 - Staying well prepared for new...

Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:58 - The big macro picture13:25 - Industry performance update16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe?28:00 - Using AI in trend following32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds39:36 - Being aware of your own biases44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce?57:28 - The evolution of risk management01:03:24 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you...

As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Michael on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - The big macro picture14:09 - The debt problem in China20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?38:41 - A complicated dynamic41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk48:53 - A structural problem51:59 - Reimagining safe assets58:27 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:10 - What happened this week?03:24 - Industry performance update05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?25:22 - The role of lookback29:07 - Paper on economic trend36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following54:16 - Capping equity exposure56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha?01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk?01:04:04 - The...

Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Mika on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz09:25 - Working with econophysics10:52 - Finding the perfect size12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing13:19 - The macro perspective16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve18:46 - A changing environment21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?35:31 - How does cross...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - The macro perspective03:56 - Industry performance update06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?17:40 - Tim's experience with indices20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket22:36 - A discussion on alpha30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?55:47 - Getting the timing right01:00:49 - A terrible product?01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?01:08:07 - What is alpha?01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right01:13:21 - Question from Oliver01:15:59 -...

Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Clint on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone07:07 - Their approach to investment12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations18:32 - Building a model and strategy23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio30:52 - Getting the correlation right34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns39:04 - Building a multi-asset...

Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:52 - Update from Rob07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice"12:41 - Industry performance update15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why?27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?42:41 - Which CTA should you buy?49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?56:08 - You need to know what you don't know58:36 - The U.S debt ceiling01:03:09 - Thanks...

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg08:00 - Rosenberg's research process11:56 - The importance of historical awareness25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve31:16 - Getting the timing right43:54 - The longer term trajectory52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels57:12 - A shift in the political landscape01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro01:05:02 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever...

Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.Episode Timestamps:02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors07:30 - Their investment philosophy10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?12:33 - The key to succes14:06 - Their approach to open equity17:22 - Staying true to trend following20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile23:15 - An evolving system28:19 - Slow or fast?30:44 - Being aware of volatility32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"40:05 - An adaptive process43:58...

Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - Changes in the podcast format 01:30 - Review of the week 05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems 12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection 28:37 - The optimal process and results 30:58 - Diversification in manager selection 33:51 - Hunting the trends 46:29 - The Knowledge Project 55:44 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click...

If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation?06:03 - Making sense of the oil market10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market16:38 - The situation with natural gas25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved?32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution?46:51 - The outlook for gold52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles01:00:45 - The state of metals01:04:18 - A metal crisis?01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold01:16:58...

Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:33 - What happened this week?06:56 - Industry performance update08:38 - An interesting inflection point16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms21:25 - Why are people short today?25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?52:22 - The debt problem01:01:09 - A society in decline01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold01:05:42 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can...

This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global?23:15 - A changed view after the election?27:29 - Making process in a divided country35:00 - A sign of desperation36:58 - Success takes small steps?44:35 - The importance of local...

Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?10:59 - Industry performance update14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets34:31 - It takes two to crisis39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?41:56 - Is price all we need?50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?56:39 - Words of estimative probability01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is01:02:58 - Skew in trend following01:05:38 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in

If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - The big macro picture04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?18:23 - A sticky situation21:53 - A wealth of trades?26:58 - A secular reality29:17 - The banking situation35:16 - A build-up effect38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?01:17:57 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Alan Dunne returns to the show for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current global macro environment and the challenges that markets are facing at the moment. We discuss how to approach the percentage allocation to Trend Following when reaching retirement age and the current drawdowns that we see in the trend space, how to use risk mitigation strategies to create a more robust portfolio and how pension funds might end up filling the entire trend following space. We also discuss how Alan would go about constructing an alternative investment portfolio, the outlook for trend following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:32 - Broad macro observations10:21 - Consumer confidence and political obstacles14:44 - Looking towards China18:53 - Trend following update24:38 - Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?29:53 - Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs31:31 - A trend following rollercoaster36:33 - Using risk mitigation strategies45:52 - Risk mitigation in pension funds50:57 - How to build an Alternative Portfolio?01:00:06 - What does the future holds for trend following?01:04:51 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can...

Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - The big picture macro view08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls12:54 - The lag effect20:31 - The impact of change in demographics29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility01:01:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the...

Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Looking back on the week13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series19:23 - The impact of the SVB event23:02 - Industry performance update24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?43:28 - Defending trend following54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts57:06 - The trend following narrative01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital01:09:34 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...

Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach 07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent? 12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative 17:07 - A dangerous narrative 22:02 - A political backstep? 28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure 29:58 - The false narratives of China 40:47...

Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Metori Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management 04:08 - Their investment philosophy 09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe 18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program 21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations 24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe 27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters 30:18 - Their view on replication 32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers 35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets 39:30 - The risk of alternative markets 41:29 - Looking beyond China 42:18 -...

Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:41 - What happened this week?11:46 - Industry performance update13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?53:29 - Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis01:03:12 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're...

Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rick on Linkedin.Episode TimeStamps: 02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule 04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets 16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy 28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets 30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon? 38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs? 44:26 - The pushback by the lower class 49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless? 56:14 - Central banks buying - a sign of demand? 01:00:40 - Finding...

Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management03:46 - Their investment philosophy10:00 - A period of challenges13:26 - Believing in change15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?23:02 - Looking back in time30:42 - The role of short-term trading38:56 - What drives short-term trading?42:47 - Being smart with execution46:09 - Dealing with the downsides53:53 - Studying the markets55:49 - The dangers of machine...

Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:40 - What happened since last time? 09:42 - Industry performance update 10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend? 25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced 30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation 38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow 01:09:50 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics...

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Barry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen 08:17 - A potential misuse of history 11:26 - A lesson forgotten? 14:25 - Are things starting to break? 16:49 - A lesson learned 18:44 - Should we be concerned? 22:19 - Are crises inevitable? 24:32 - Is the dollar under threat? 30:10 - The need for safe assets 36:02 - The state of the Euro 39:39 -...

Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Florin Court.Episode Timestamps:02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative...

Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:16 - What happened this week? 08:34 - Unusual moves15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness20:44 - Industry performance update22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events27:17 - Keeping things simple30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?01:02:39 - The Pros...

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book11:42 - What will the new world bring?17:01 - The problems with Big Food21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?28:08...

Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Quantica Capital.Episode Timestamps:02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital05:04 - Their investment philosophy12:31 - What makes them unique?17:09 - Reacting to trends19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?23:33 - Looking Sharpe30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"35:12 - Dealing with shocks39:02 - The measurement methodologies43:14 - The role of correlation46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls53:09 - Important...

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes 06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell 09:38 - The geopolitical perspective 12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx 18:03 - Weekly update 20:24 - The volatility winter27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment? 36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall? 44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks48:09 - What are the signs to look for? 50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect...

This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody 10:19 - The development path of East Asia 14:41 - The path that India did not take 19:32 - The path they did take 23:37 - Different versions of India 30:37 - What is Hindutva?...

Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Winton Group.Episode Timestamps:02:18 - Introduction to Winton 05:05 - Their investment philosophy 09:25 - Where does opportunities arise? 10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago? 13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe? 16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha 20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative 22:41 - What about the non-trend? 25:22 - Need for speed? 27:49 - Their research process 31:19 - Accessing big events in markets 35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning 38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters 42:23 - The risks of CTA replication...

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky is back with us, following a tense week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other bank emergencies. We discuss how we are in a period that Mark calls “the great bond reprising” and what this means for the economy, why the collapse of SVB was somehow "expected", if only regulators had been looking at the right data and how you build models that are well prepared for unexpected events. We also discuss why the core concept of CTA replication in itself may be problematic and why the collapse of SVB might indicate that some people possess too much power, how the wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, how change and uncertainty in the world affects investors and the economy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:00 - What really happened this week? 19:19 - Industry performance update 25:21 - A tough week for trend 36:13 - Looking through the rear view mirror 46:25 - SVB and trend following 52:47 - The dynamics of the financial world 59:20 - A changing world 01:09:27 - Reflecting on the CTA series 01:13:33 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and...

Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rory on TwitterEpisode TimeStamps: 03:19 - SPR - What and why? 06:27 - Why crude and not refined products? 09:34 - How is the SPR used? 13:54 - Trading oil 19:54 - The goal of the SPR market 23:04 - How inventory drives oil price 28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking 29:43 - Theory vs. practice 33:28 - The mega energy companies 36:00 -...

Today, we are joined by Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager within the Quantitative Strategies group at PIMCO, for a conversation how they manage 60 billion dollars through different quant strategies, of which app. $5bn is in Trend Following. We discuss their process of constructing portfolios using a defensive approach and how they manage to simultaneously maintain a high Sharpe, keep a balance between long and short trades and how they use tail "hedging" in their design of the strategy. We also discuss why they believe having a broad universe of markets is key and why they see a big potential in exotic markets, why they believe it is better to trade faster as a trend follower when markets are liquid enough, their process of measuring the expected returns and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about PIMCOEpisode Timestamps:02:28 - Introduction to PIMCO 05:11 - Their investment philosophy 11:11 - Too concerned about the Sharpe? 14:53 - A different Speed of trend following 18:13 - Building a defence against equity drawdowns22:32 - Balancing the opposing forces 25:45 - A different approach to volatility correlation? 27:06 - Using machine learning 28:04 - The role of bonds 31:34 - The larger portfolio perspective33:07 - Their research process 36:53 -

Today, I'm joined by Rob Carver for the weekly trend following conversation, where we reflect on the takeaways from the CTA series and the performance of the year so far. We discuss parameter and markets selection through research and testing and why Rob dislikes stops in moving average systems, what happens if a brokerage firm fails. We also discuss why you have to be cautious when using dynamic position sizing and Rob’s advice for using backtesting, how articles from big financial media often creates a false or skewed narrative in the way they present data and information, why adding a lot of instruments to your portfolio is not as good an idea as it might seem. And finally we discuss Rob's latest article in the Financial Times and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA series 04:57 - Performance update 09:59 - Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting 16:47 - Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems? 18:49 - Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting? 22:20 - Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up? 26:37 - Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding "Following the Trend" by Andreas Clenow39:22 - Applying a commission rate for your backtest 44:22 - Q5.1, Matthijs: The optimal moment to roll a contract? 46:14 - Q5.2, Matthijs: View on adding a defensive strategy to

What are some of the key takeaways when you marry global financial markets with potentially extraterrestrial influences? Global Macro investor David Dorr, has taken on that conversation. As government and national security services have begun to declassify information around UFOs, David is exploring the edge of what people are starting to talk about but financial markets haven’t yet embraced. Energy, defense, travel, technology, are points of influence in this conversation. Then there’s what Lockheed Martin may be sitting on that could be a real game changer. David has been following this line of research for quite awhile and feels that things are just now starting to break loose. David Dorr is the Managing Principal at Dorr Asset Management SEZC and has more than 25 years experience in trading, global macroeconomics, risk management and trading technology.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:36 - Introduction to David 05:43 - A touchy subject 12:48 - The Tic Tac incident 19:37 - The Navy ships incident 24:17 - What is Area 51? 27:03 - What happened in Mosul, Iraq? 28:29 - The New York Times article 30:41 - Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important? 34:40 - Connections in the UFO network 38:40 - Alfred O'Donnell & EE&G 41:50 - Are they saving us from...

Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more.DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about DG Partners.Episode Timestamps:02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners 03:38 - Their road to trend following 12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following 16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe? 19:10 - The dual mandate 22:51 - The trend following narrative 27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following 30:24 - Need for speed? 38:13 - How many markets do they trade? 40:16 - Rethinking volatility? 43:01 - Their execution process 44:00 - Their...

Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the broader perspective of the markets and the economy. We discuss how the unpredictablity of inflation and interest rates affect all parts of the economy and the transition from globalization to deglobalization, the size of the CTA and trend following industry and how articles on media like Bloomberg often creates a unrealistic narrative about CTAs through colorful headlines. We also discuss Why you should add trend following to your portfolio and How trend following is done, what we have learned from our recent conversations with the best CTA managers in the world and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:59 - Broad Macro observations 12:41 - How the economy responds to interest rates 17:03 - Moving in a new direction 20:54 - Reflecting on the month of February 202322:44 - Industry performance update 24:29 - Bloomberg article on CTAs impact on equity markets31:41 - Colorful headlines 34:07 - Findings from Quantica paper on CTAs market footprint43:45 - Why trend following & How to do it? 50:47 - Takeaways from the CTA series 01:02:51 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that...

Today, we are joined by Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management (CFM), for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their investment strategy. We discuss their research on how trend following has performed historically and how they use the data in their trading and the role trend following play in their portfolio construction. We also discuss the right way of doing research when it comes to quant based strategies and how they differentiate themselves from other trend followers, how they keep risk stable and forecast gaps in markets, how you should use trend following in a multi-asset portfolio and how they estimate capacity, the risk of investing in a replicator strategy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Capital Fund Management.Episode Timestamps:02:05 - Introduction to Capital Fund Management 05:32 - Their investment philosophy 12:27 - Periods of under-performance 19:13 - Trend following - a small piece?24:58 - Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate? 31:32 - Their research process 36:22 - Enhancing a trend program 37:46 - Using machine learning 40:47 - Different types of trend followers 46:56 - Controlling the risk 51:20 - Dealing with drawdowns 54:44 - Achieving convexity 57:03...

Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Nicky on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science 09:42 - The major players in the energy markets 12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial 18:43 - Forecasting the flow 25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas? 27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets 30:22 - Risk considerations 32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action 34:28 - Measuring demand 36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research 39:46 - Oil on...

Today, we are joined by Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management, for a conversation on how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets. We discuss the pros and cons of risk premia strategies and how they manage to improve the Sharpe ratio while making sure the "dual" mandate is fulfilled, how they have moved beyond pure price trends as part of the evolution of their trend programs. We also discuss the process of building a trend following strategy and why they prefer to build models rather than mimic a strategy through linear regression, their approach to adding alternative markets to their portfolio, why they are always concerned about capacity and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about AQR Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:50 - Introduction to AQR 04:12 - Their investment philosophy 08:47 - Risk premia strategies 11:55 - A historical perspective 13:55 - Too focused on Sharpe? 22:24 - Changing the narrative 30:41 - Being unconventional 35:13 - Getting comfortable with the data 39:22 - The future for economical trend following 42:55 - Their research process 47:05 - The managed futures space 48:39 - Pricing trend following 55:00 - The need for daily liquidity...

Today, Nick Baltas return to the show following a head scratching period for inflation and interest rates the past few weeks. We discuss the state of the environment for trend following and the best way to select a portfolio of markets to trade, the pros and cons of "trend following the trend followers". We also reflect on Katy Kaminski’s take on Crisis Alpha and discuss the evolution of trend following and how it changes the way strategies are designed, why being too concerned about the Sharpe may impact your performance in unexpected ways and why it is important to be aware of your own biases and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:04 - Market recap 04:21 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA Series 09:10 - What has caught Nick's attention recently? 13:17 - Industry performance update 15:53 - Q1, Adam: Regarding applying systems to markets 23:41 - Q2, Tim: Thought on trend following the trend followers? 30:39 - Q3, Tim: Nick's thoughts on tracking the AUM? 37:19 - Crisis alpha - lost in translation? 49:43 - How trend following has evolved 53:44 - Are we too concerned about the Sharpe? 58:55 - Changing the narrative 01:05:02 - Trend following disagreements 01:07:29 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help...

Today, we are joined by Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, for a conversation on how they approach managed futures and trend following in their programs. We discuss how they work together with their clients to find the right solution for them and why it is important to understand the true meaning of Crisis Alpha, why commodities play a crucial role in times of crises and the key components of managing major disrupting events like COVID19. We also discuss why you might want an equity aware strategy, how they use machine learning to be more precise and prepared for moves in markets, how macro uncertainty impacts managed futures and trend following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.Episode Timestamps:02:01 - Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group03:03 - Their Investment Philosophy08:02 - Too concerned about Sharpe?13:42 - How do you customize pure trend?16:10 - Crisis Alpha - the true meaning explained22:24 - The role of commodities in crises26:22 - A need for speed?32:20 - Capping the equity beta39:36 - Their approach to CTA replication44:59 - Machine learning as a research tool48:30 - Simple vs. sophisticated50:02 - CTA style factors56:16 - All about...

Today, we are joined by Nigol Koulajian and Mike Harris from Quest Partners, for a conversation on how they use a research driven, quantitative and systematic trading approach to generate alpha. We discuss how they generate convexity and why they have chosen to focus on short-term time frames, why they believe some investors have become too focused on Sharpe and how they use trend following and crowding in their process. We also discuss how they use an adaptive learning technique to understand markets whilst being aware of the dangers of machine learning, the power and importance of data and the potential risks of replicating managers, why liquidity is dynamic and very unpredictable and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Quest Partners.Episode Timestamps:02:08 - Introduction to Quest Partners 03:34 - Their investment philosophy 07:35 - A structural change in markets 15:04 - Too focused on Sharpe? 20:55 - Creating momentum 24:18 - A move toward multi-strat? 37:35 - Managing the crowd 39:13 - The persistency of market environments 41:45 - A type of machine learning? 44:12 - The source of opportunities 48:34 - The "D" word 53:30 - Thoughts on CTA replication 01:00:12 - Being a short term manager...

Richard Brennan joins us to reflect on the learnings so far from the new CTA series. We also discuss how to set your stop loss when entering a new position and why you should not allow your trend models to go "backwards", how to fit your model to price data and why it is important to understand the signal to noise ratio in your trading to avoid overfitting. Additionally, we discuss how random entries can work for your models, but why they are not truely random and the challenge of separating luck from real signal, why it is preferable to have an under-fit model as opposed to an over-fit model when developing a trend following system and how to reduce your chances of having an overfit solution. We round off our conversation discussing why trend following is not as easy as it might seem and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:17 - Reflecting on the CTA Series 09:55 - What happened this week? 12:42 - Q1, Jordan: Regarding setting stop loss when entering a position 15:39 - Q2, Mark: Entry lookback vs exit lookback? 19:23 - Signal to noise masterclass 36:03 - The Tom Basso experiment 46:34 - The challenges of creating models 52:40 - Avoiding overfit - Don't pick the "best" parameters57:23 - Avoiding overfit - Apply the Golden Rules01:00:19 - Using visual mapping 01:03:50 - Avoiding overfit - trade multiple markets01:07:34 - Trend...

Today, we are joined by Dr. Edward Tricker, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Strategies at Graham Capital Management, joined Top Traders Unplugged for a discussion on Graham's approach to quantitative macro investing. The discussion touches on a variety of interesting topics including the evolution of trend-following, diversification, portfolio optimization, and "crisis alpha." Dr. Tricker also discusses how Graham partners with investors to help them solve for their specific portfolio needs, as well as why collaboration is critical in his team’s research process and the firm's risk management philosophy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Graham Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:16 - Introduction to Graham Capital Management04:00 - Their investment philosophy09:35 - The art of modelling12:33 - Too concerned about Sharpe?17:14 - Working together with clients20:17 - The "real" objective23:22 - Commodities - A saver in crises?27:32 - What strategies to add in a 60/40?32:54 - Their research process37:28 - Evaluating managers and strategies40:20 - Regime shifts and changes in markets44:11 - Recalibrating parameter selection48:34 - Their approach to look-back and signal generation54:01 -...

Today we are joined by Jacob Shapiro and Roger Hirst. Jacob is the Geopolitics Editor at financial media company Lykeion, co-author of a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics and Macro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Roger is the Macro Editor at financial media company Lykeion and the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Together they provide a powerhouse of insights into the machinations of geopolitics and macroeconomics. Key in this conversation are Jacob’s and Roger’s insights into China and whether China has the capacity to influence global growth going forward. In our conversation we explore the possibility and probability of deglobalization and what that might mean. In addition Roger and Jacob turn the spotlight on Latin America and the potential it holds given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints the world is facing. Join us in this deep dive into what lies behind and beneath these pressing issues.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Roger on Twitter.Follow Jacob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:42 - Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst 09:22 - Where lies the uncertainty? 11:01 - The ultimate impact on markets 15:32 -...

Today, we are joined by Mike Kastner, Principle and Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management, for a conversation on how they use fixed income instruments to manage the cash of many CTA portfolios. We discuss how managers have evolved in terms of the way they manage cash, how Halyard Asset Management construct a portfolio from a liquidity point of view and the current state of liquidity, how they approach credit rating and why they avoid buying paper from certain banks. We also unpack what they think the sweet spot for foreign exchange hedging is and how they approach risk management, why Kastner does not believe we are approaching a recession and that there is a likely chance of a significant fall in the long bond price, as well as what Kastner believes will happen in the housing market and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Halyard Asset Management.Episode Timestamps:02:40 - Introduction to Halyard Asset Management 04:12 - History of Cash Management 07:16 - What happened with money market funds? 09:34 - Has the Cash Management space changed? 11:02 - Cash Management philosophy 12:23 - A liquid portfolio 17:39 - Drawing the safety line 19:25 - Considering ESGs 21:11 - Managing cash in different currencies 22:41 - Balancing the mandates 23:52 - Managing risk...

Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us at the end of another Fed driven week. We discuss the pros and cons of being a long term trend follower compared to a short term trend follower in terms of performance and Sharpe Ratio, and why you would want to apply the same rules to long and short sided trades, how to understand long and short term volatility, the advantages of being a systematic manager and the limits to how much AUM a manager can handle, how Rzepczynski will be focusing on change point detection in his next endevour and why it is important as a trend follower to think in terms of radical uncertainty or disequilibriums and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:20 - What happened this week?11:01 - Individual Sharpe vs. portfolio Sharpe18:59 - Industry performance update19:56 - Q1, Pete: Same rules for longs and shorts - why?32:25 - Q1 Follow-up: Change position right away or wait for first new trade entry?36:09 - Q2, Callum: Question regarding TTU series with Ryan O'Grady40:57 - Q3, Tim: Questions regarding link between Performance and AUM50:21 - The problem with flat fees55:06 - The idea of change point detection01:00:18 - The age of disconnect01:11:01 - The impact of disruptors01:17:04 - Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here

Today, we are joined by Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital, for a conversation on their systematic investment process, with a primary focus on research. We discuss why bias is a core element of Aspect Capitals investment philosophy, the essence of trend and why trend strategies work, as well as how they work together with their investors to create the most optimal portfolio for them. We also explore Lueck's analogy of trend as "medicine" and why it is important to give the medicine time to do its work. We continue with topics such as how trend following as a strategy has evolved over time and how they feel about the newest CTA replication products, their reasoning for being cautious about using machine learning and, why they chose not to dwell too much on fees, how they guide their clients when it comes to return expectations and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Aspect CapitalEpisode Timestamps:02:57 - Introduction to Aspect Capital 06:54 - Their Investment Philosophy 09:56 - Why does trend strategies work? 13:12 - A less uncertain period 15:44 - Too concerned about the sharpe? 20:38 - Which trends are most popular? 23:01 - Costumization - is there a limit? 28:58 - Staying diversified and improving models 34:33 - The research process 37:29 - A change in models?...

Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Rory on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?16:43 - Making assumptions19:38 - The challenges with data28:36 - Indicators of volatility32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value37:02 - Having an edge in oil45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report49:17 - Oil price - a play on the...

Today, we are joined by Svante Bergström, Founding Partner and CEO of Lynx Asset Management, for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their trading strategy, through the use of a multi-strat approach. We discuss why they believe trend following will continue to work for the next hundred years and how they ensure a good balance between achieving a high Sharpe while maintaining the trend following profile, what they have learned from 2022 and how they used diversifying models and machine learning to profit in 2022, their process of finding new models and replacing the ones that do not work and why they are sceptical about the returns from CTA replication. We also discuss the number of markets they prefer to trade, how they manage risk and what you should pay attention to when evaluating managers, their approach to capacity and fees and their process of finding new talent in the industry, how they implement ESGs in their work and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about LYNXEpisode Timestamps:02:18 - Introduction to LYNX 04:11 - How did they settle on trend following? 09:08 - A painful ride? 11:09 - Too focused on sharpe? 14:04 - What stood out in 2022? 16:17 - The dual mandate 18:10 - The benefits of diversifying strategies 20:08 - Why machine learning? 24:31 - The flipside of diversifying...

Today, Andrew Beer returns to the podcast for a conversation on Trend Following & Managed Futures more broadly, where we reflect on what happened in the first month of 2023 and the outlook for rest of the year. We also discuss why many investors started to panic in the last half of 2022 and why Managed Futures is such a powerful "companion" strategy, the recent change of sentiment to stocks and bonds and why we should sometimes just trust the evidence. We round things off with a deep dive into various ways to achieve optimal diversification and the value of trend following, why it is important to be tactical and put aside the idea of buying the dip, how narrative plays such a big role in the trend following space and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:11 - Reflecting on the month of January06:36 - Performance of trend following this year so far14:43 - Industry performance update15:43 - Managed futures - the ultimate diversifier?21:24 - Will stocks and bonds continue to move in tandem?25:46 - Predictable diversification benefits29:28 - The advantages of managers41:40 - Why should managed futures work?48:18 - Buy the dip?54:31 - Sticking to the data01:01:13 - Gunslingers in the ETF space01:05:59 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready......

Today, we are joined by Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management, for a conversation on how and why they have continued to focus on Trend Following as their core investment strategy. We discuss the challenges of improving upon trend following and if it's possible to deliver it with a high Sharpe Ratio, what differentiates DUNN Capital from other trend followers and how they use research to stay well prepared. We also dig into their approach to trading futures and determining trends and where they see the weaknesses of trend following strategies, why they choose to look at the overall portfolio when managing the risk and why they think portfolio replication can be problematic. We also discuss how they manage risk and why they prefer to reside in the medium to long term when it comes to trend following, how they approach capacity and fees and why they choose to trade using a human touch rather than automated execution, what returns are achievable from trend following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about DUNN Capital ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:31 - Introduction to DUNN Capital Management 05:02 - Why Trend Following? 07:35 - What differentiates DUNN Capital Management? 12:06 - Hitting the right balance 14:34 - Reflecting on the performance in 2022 18:43 - The speed of systems 22:28 - Their research process 25:36 - Trading...

Today, Perry Mehrling, Economist and internationally recognized expert on our monetary system, joins us to talk about his new book: “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System”. Perry’s book is a “biography of the dollar” told through the life “Charlie” Kindleberger, an economist who helped craft the Marshall Plan and spent his life studying and writing about the best way to organize international money. We discuss why Charlie thought the world needs a “key currency” and how the Fed - reluctantly and slowly - grew to support the dollar as it took on that role. Perry explains why the dollar system has proved so resilient. We finish the talk with an examination of two of the Fed’s most important tools - QE and swap lines and discuss why one supports the system while the other might undermine it. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Perry on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Perry Mehrling and Charles Kindleberger 10:03 - What is the Sterling System? 15:01 - Establishing a central bank 23:35 - The impact of World

Today, we are joined by Ryan O’ Grady, CEO and Co-Founder of ROW Asset Management, for a conversation on their all-weather, multi-strat approach to investing. We discuss the philosophy behind their trading strategy and why they choose to think holistically, why limiting yourself to trend following is a disadvantage and how they balance between simplicity and complexity in their research process, what they believe is the right number of markets to trade and how they diversify their portfolio. We also discuss what the pros and cons of replication are and how their work sets them apart from other trend followers, how they manage risk and mitigate drawdowns, how they succeed to run a multi asset portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Row Asset ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:23 - Introduction to ROW Asset Management05:18 - Their investment philosophy and objective11:43 - Should we worry about our sharpe?16:31 - What to expect from pure trend20:04 - Their research process24:00 - Making changes to the system26:40 - Their thoughts on machine learning28:53 - New areas for research30:52 - How many markets should you trade?35:18 - Their thoughts on replication38:49 - The risk of replication42:02 - Managing drawdowns45:16 -...

Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current macro environment and how it impact markets. We discuss how the apparent positivity in the markets might get derailed by the lack of cooperation from policy makers and how a lurking uncertainty is threatening the calmness of the markets, the performance of the CTA industry, which markets are the best to trade and how the speed of your trend system affects the outcome, how CTAs capitalize on people’s behavioural biases and what the conversations in the new TTU mini series have taught us so far. We also discuss the advantages of being a multi manager and whether managers should give the investors multiple choices or do the choosing themselves and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:16 - The current macro picture 15:56 - Trend following update 18:04 - Current markets and asset allocation 28:07 - Papers on the CTA industry 38:15 - Fast vs. slow trend systems 42:32 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA mini series 49:12 - The multi-manager perspective 56:42 - Feedback on the TTU CTA Mini series 59:07 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...

Today, we are joined by Kevin Cole, CEO and CIO at Campbell & Co, for a conversation on their approach to using trend following in their trading, with a focus on absolute return. We discuss their investment philosophy and the evolution of their expanded trading strategy, how they moved beyond pure trend using equities and how they use a multi-strat approach to stay diversified. We also discuss how they feel about being replicated and how they use their research process to keep an edge over their competitors, how they capture the underlying momentum factors of trend and how they implement ESG in their trading strategy. Lastly, we discuss how they approach risk management and position sizing, their view on capacity and fees in the industry and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about CampbellEpisode Timestamps:02:07 - Introduction to Campbell & Co03:53 - Their investment philosophy06:07 - The objectives of their work08:37 - Moving beyond trend following12:27 - Their approach to trading equities15:11 - Staying diversified19:59 - Using constraints 21:54 - Thoughts on replication26:45 - What is a good research process?31:46 - Balancing the adaptability36:23 - Trading more markets = better?41:47 - Dealing with ESGs47:02 -...

Today, Kevin Coldiron is joined by the legendary David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group, philanthropist, historian and more, for a conversation on what we can learn from his journey to become a billion dollar investor, based on his book, “How To Invest”. We discuss what Rubenstein learned from his work as a lawyer and what young, aspiring investors can learn from his book, why it is important to work with something you love to do and why investors are an important part of society. We also discuss how great results require great risk and how becoming a successful investor requires a balance between luck, skill and risk, how to evaluate successful firms like Carlyle Group and the role philanthropists play in society, the economic inequality in America and why taxing the wealth is not a way to solve it, why Rubenstein believes ESGs are here to stay and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow David on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to David Rubinstein07:02 - From lawyer to investor11:48 - What inspired the book?16:32 - Is capitalism going out of fashion?18:43 - The path

Today, we are joined by President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management, Michael Pomada, for a talk on their approach to trend following as well as short-term strategies. We discuss the trading philosophy behind Crabel Capital Management and why they choose to primarily be long vol, what role the Sharpe Ratio plays in their trading strategy and how they use data in their research process to understand markets, how being de-siloed helped them to make 2022 their best year in terms of research and how they create the most optimal work environment and culture for their team. How they utilize machine learning in their work and why they spend tens of millions of dollars on execution infra-structure, why they believe replication is like drugs and medication and why ESGs are important for them as a firm, how they manage drawdown control and mitigate risk. Lastly, we discuss why Pomada has found peace with fees going down and why being innovative is key in maintaining a solid income, why they are not concern about competition in the industry and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Crabel Capital ManagementEpisode Timestamps:02:20 - Introduction to Crabel Capital Management03:41 - The philosophy behind their work08:46 - Their trading objectives11:21 - Too concerned about the sharpe?14:28 - Better alternatives to sharpe?16:43 - Unearthing the anomalies22:49 - Creating...

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why everything ultimately moves towards an equilibrium condition where everything stops and how it can be corrected through math, the importance of understanding how a system operates before applying math and that everything is process driven, how Richard thinks of risk in an uncertain world and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:34 - Thoughts on new mini series09:46 - Battleship still floating?11:56 - Q1, Markus: Richard's biggest takeaways in his backtesting 18:12 - Q2, Tim: About inconsistencies in the selection process31:27 - Uncertainty rather than certainty49:38 - Why not focus on other trends?56:44 - Outliers - features of liquid markets?01:03:28 - Everything is a process01:12:21 - Managing risk in an uncertain world01:21:24 - Thanks...

Today, we are joined by Harold de Boer, Head of R&D and Managing Director at Transtrend, for a conversation on their unique approach to trend following. We discuss the investment philosophy at Transtrend and what makes them stand out against other investors, why markets trend and what history can teach us about trend following, how the war in Ukraine impacts markets and how Transtrend stays diversified. We also discuss why Transtrend has not deviated from trend and the importance of differentiating yourself, why de Boer believes computers have been become a disadvantage and why de Boer does not think trading more markets is always better. Lastly, we discuss Transtrend’s approach to pricing their work and why they think ESG’s have become a “strange thing”, what de Boer is most excited for in 2023 and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about TranstrendEpisode Timestamps:02:27 - Introduction to Transtrend03:47 - The investment philosophy17:55 - Being unconventional21:27 - Pure trend following vs. Trend following plus29:25 - What is the investment objective?32:53 - Developing and evaluating systems37:34 - Human + computer = better than computer?40:34 - Weaknesses of CTA replication strategies47:17 - Is trading more markets better?51:54 - Managing risk and liquidity...

In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on de-carbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC has risen to power again and what drives the oil prices, why we might run out of metals in the near future, why boycotting Russian oil is a climate paradox and what might be the solution to the energy crisis, how the underinvestment in carbon creates a ripple effect in multiple other sectors, why Currie believes renewable energy might not be the right solution to the energy crisis, how to profit from the commodity super cycle and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:35 - Introduction to Jeff Currie04:18 - A new kind of inflation?08:41 - Policy and what drives inflation15:41 - The outlook for the demand side22:45 - Short term position and the commodity space28:11: - Disruptions in infrastructure31:17 - The rise of OPEC33:32 - Status on the strategic oil reserve34:20 - Volatility in oil39:45 - Are we running out of metal?44:12 - The situation with gas48:15...

In this first episode of the new mini series with the largest and most successful trend followers in the world, we are joined by Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL, for a conversation on how Man AHL uses trend following in their trading strategy. We discuss the philosophy behind their work and why they believe trend following is a great strategy, as well as what makes Man AHL stand out to investors and how they make trend following more digestible while maintaining "crisis alpha". We also discuss Korgaonkar’s view on CTA replication and their process of improving their trend following system and models, why having a good execution system is important for enabling different sources of alpha and why they use dynamic position sizing to maximize their returns, how they overcome periods of drawdowns and how you price your work as a CTA, how much you should allocate to trend and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Man AHLEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro02:22 - Introduction to Man AHL03:45 - Their trading strategy06:18 - Why does trend following work?10:11 - A unique type of trend following?15:46 - A trade-off in the objectives19:14 - The effect of adding carry21:13 - Picking from the strategy menu?22:46 - Too much focus on Sharpe?24:33 - Replication - yay or nay?29:54 - Have...

Today, Rob Carver returns to the show for the first weekly trend following conversation in 2023, where we discuss the unusual situation with the vol market and how to use stops and moving average crossovers when entering and exiting trades, what it takes to run a trend following portfolio in 2023 and why it is not for everyone, how Kurtosis and skew is used in managed futures, Rob's process of picking parameters and why using a mixture parameter speed is the most optimal approach. We also discuss the U.S. debt ceiling and why it can become a potential problem, speed in trend following and why you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, how much math you need to work in the financial markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - What happened since we last spoke?09:58 - Industry performance update12:49 - A1, Andrew: Use stop or wait for crossover?18:41 - Q2, Joseph: Is running your own trend following portfolio reasonable in 2023?22:58 - Q3, Bart: The importance of Kurtosis26:53 - Q4, Ross: How to pick parameters?41:22 - Defending optimization43:32 - The U.S Debt ceiling48:05 - The need for speed in trend following56:16 - Optimal trend following with transaction cost59:05 - How much Math is needed to be a Trend Follower?01:04:12 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Today, Susan Shirk, Professor and expert in the US/China relationship and Chinese politics, joins us for a conversation on China’s rise to power, based on her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”. We discuss Susan’s research process and what laid the foundation for the book, the evolution of the control regime in China and how China has been taking things too far, how corruption affects Chinese politics and how Xi Jinping’s attempt to purge the corruption has led to an over compliance and bandwagoning. We also discuss how China’s strict Covid19 policies has led to nationwide protests and major frustration in the population, how China derailed from its peaceful rise, how they may be able to get back on track and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Susan on Twitter & read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:31 - Introduction to Susan and her work08:07 - What is the 21st Century China Center?10:37 - Why did Susan write the book?16:27 - How did the overreach begin?24:58 - Purging a corrupt system31:36 - Examples of derailed...

Today, Niels and Alan introduces the new, upcoming mini series that will focus on trend following and managed futures on a broad scale and provide access to the brightest minds within our industry. We set the stage by discussing what kind of year 2022 turned out to be for CTAs and how the idea for the mini series emerged, what we expect and hope to achieve from our conversations with these top-tier managers and some of the exciting topics that we will bring up in the new mini series. We will also take a look into 2023 and discuss our expectations for the year and what we are most excited for in the mini series.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro01:52 - Setting the stage03:53 - The idea behind the miniseries07:48 - What we hope to achieve11:13 - What are our expectations?14:43 - The topics that we will discuss29:25 - When will they be published?30:34 - What are we most excited for?35:58 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...

Today, we are joined by Dylan Grice, Co-Founder at Calderwood Capital, for a conversation on how he thinks about portfolio construction through focusing on alternative and niche investments. We discuss how Dylan and his team work and why they shy away from trying to predict the future, how they analyse the current economic situation and why he thinks what happens to inflation and interest rates the next few years is insignificant. We also discuss how they manage the risk of the strategies they are working with and how they build a solid return profile, approach manager selection, how you can avoid being seduced by managers through narratives and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Dylan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:17 - Introduction to Dylan Grice08:37 - How does Calderwood Capital work?20:47 - Macro, micro or mixing both?25:54 - Signs of stress in the markets?32:37 - Grice’s perspective on inflation and interest rates36:19 - How do they construct their portfolios?43:32 - The art of managing risk48:45 - Building an all weather return profile54:28 - Assessing the managers01:01:26 - When things go wrong01:03:16 - Advice for people working in similar fields01:05:52 - Key takeaways from...

Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for the second part of the year-end group conversation on trend following, leading up to the beginning of 2023. We discuss whether trading more markets is actually better for diversifying your portfolio and how to approach outliers, how fluctuations in interest rates affects volatility strategies and trend followers, both currently and historically. We also discuss whether artificial intelligence can be a viable tool for trading and whether liquidity is about to break, the outlook for 2023 and what the year might hold for trend followers and the economy, why you should expect the unexpected and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:19 - Diversification in trend following17:48 - The impact of fluctuating interest rates 30:58 - Using AI in trading41:46 - A discussion on liquidity53:54 - A glimpse into 202301:05:33 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have to be open to imagine the unimaginable, what the future might hold for the Crypto space and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:14 - Q1, Zach: Have we seen the end of the carry regime? And what are the indicators?14:16 - The perfect year for trend following?25:52 - The wrong kind of volatility?31:04 - Trend vs. Tail Hedge43:04 - What is happening with volatility? 50:38 - What did we learn from the year 2022?01:00:40 - The...

Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:00 - About Dave and his work06:04 - Are big pension funds failing?11:21 - A fragile world19:54 - How Dave thinks about liquidity25:20 - What does cheap actually mean?34:23 - What might be next for volatility41:43 - The next Korean ship builder?46:19 - Is forecasting pointless?51:00 - Improve your convexity = improve your life59:37 -

Today, Cem Karsan joins us to reflect on a week with heavy Fed action and some of the myths surrounding the Fed. We discuss how the behaviour of the Fed impacts inflation and the importance of understanding seasonality, why the discussion between recession and no recession makes little sense and the what direction the markets are heading. We also discuss Cem’s approach to trading the current volatility compression and why 44% of the S&P options volume is in 0 DTE, the key takeaways from the year that has passed and the most surprising events of the year, how the world has changed over the years and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:57 - What happened this week?11:34 - An interesting period for equities22:33 - Industry performance update24:39 - Does recession or no-recession even matter?33:44 - How and when to short the S&P39:10 - The Oil Put...45:08 - Why has Gold disappointed?47:47 - The rise of the 0DTE options53:00 - Takeaways from 2022Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope...

Today, Chris Miller, Author and Associate Professor of International History, joins us for a fascinating conversation on microchip technology and its impact on modern day society, based on his book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology” - which just received the Financial Times Best Business Book of 2022 Award. We discuss why semiconductor chips are so important today and the complex manufactoring process behind them, the history and role of the very few companies that dominate the industry, the problems that the monopolistic situation causes but also the opportunities that it has created for technology. We also discuss the concerns that the technology has created in terms of espionage and digital warfare, why a deep integration between telecom systems might be a solution to the potential conflicts that the technology can cause, what might be able to disrupt the industry and much more. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Chris on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:37 - Introduction to Chris and his work06:17 - About his research process09:50 - Why are semiconductor chips so...

Today, Rob Carver joins us for conversation on Trend Following with something for the both the individual everyday investor and the trend following nerds. We also catch up on this week's events which included news of the biggest one-week outflow of US Equity Mutual & ETF funds since April 2021 and the news that Blackstone will be limiting investor redemption's in one of their Real Estate funds. We discuss how Rob uses dynamic market selection to diversify his portfolio and how he plans out his trading year when it comes to deep dive analysis, how he implements and tests his continuous trend systems and if he believes in using tail protection strategies to manage risk. We also discuss how Rob implement his carry strategy, portfolio optimization and momentum factor investing, what the special Year-End Group episodes will bring and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:39 - What happened this week?20:22 - Industry performance update22:25 - Q1, Elie: Can you run a continous system without daily vol targeting? Can you calculate signal scaling with in-sample data? More info on the mean reversion system with a high sharpe?34:42 - Q2, Matthijs: How does Rob think about protecting/diversifying his portfolio with tail protection strategies?42:54 - Q3, Richard: Has Rob considered conditioning his carry forecasts based on asset class? Should I account for using the spread of nearest contract to nearest plus when calculating the raw carry...

Today, we are joined by Shawn Hackett, Founder of Hackett Financial Advisors, for a conversation on how changes in weather and weather volatility affects the economy and you as an investor. We discuss the role and state of agriculture and the impact of climate change, the mechanisms of the climate and why understanding the big picture of weather cycles is so important, how we are transitioning into a new weather cycle, what it means for the crop production and important indicators for predicting crop yields. We also discuss why Hackett view the value of commodities the same way he view the value of stocks and why being aware of where we are in the climate and economic cycles is critical, why long term planning is a key factor in managing risk, how to approach agriculture and commodities in general in your investment strategy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Shawn on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:07 - The state of agriculture10:10 - How Sunspots are affecting the earth?15:22 - What drives the climate?19:00 - Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?21:18 - The World is moving into a new phase27:39 - Predicting the weather?36:10 - Positioning risk and classification44:56 - The impact of currencies49:08 - Weather Volatility - good or...

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to reflect on the month of November and take a peek into 2023. We discuss the equity rally and what it means for the economy, both currently and historically, the cycle of bear markets and why the current period has been unusual. We also discuss the role of diversified managed futures, why short term traders are interesting in that context and how it compares to trend following, the expectations for 2023 and what environment we are heading into, the issues with public and private pension funds and what the future might hold, why having an active and adaptive strategy is becoming ever so more crucial and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:53 - Highlights from the week10:30 - Industry performance update17:41 - The equity (bear market) rally31:25 - The impact of the inflation target38:49 - Why are short term traders interesting?49:24 - Looking into the crystal ball01:00:53 - The end of an era01:04:53 - How often do you need to rebalance?01:07:55 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I...

Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments looks like and how the economic landscape has changed as well as how SVB Private has adapted their asset allocation to the current crisis and the implications of going back to a low growth environment. We also discuss why managed futures is now worth considering, what defines a good team of managers and how to deal with behavioural bias in manager selection, where the IRA industry is heading and how it affects clients, advice to aspiring CIOs and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Shannon on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:15 - Introduction to Shannon and her work10:37 - A change in behaviour?19:12 - Moving beyond the three buckets26:20 - A rough year33:01 - Staying diversified40:03 - Are Managed Futures becoming viable for Private Banks...again?44:05 - Manager selection vs. asset allocation50:26 - Dealing with behavioural bias57:06 - Discussing the IRA industry01:03:33 -...

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, following the release of the minutes from the FED’s Open Market Committee in a week of thin liquidity. We discuss whether trend followers can make money going forward after a great year and if it is "too late" to allocate to trend following, the historical perspective of trend following and what we can expect going forward based on the latest analysis from AQR, and how the fast flow of information impacts trend following. We also discuss the importance of knowing when to quit and embezzlement in the crypto space, why trust is a key factor of trend following and why you should find out where liquidity is coming from. We finish discussing why it is important to be aware of how markets move through cycles, what it means if we are heading into a more deglobalized world and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:21 - What happened this week?06:24 - Industry performance update09:19 - Is it too late for trend following?24:47 - The impact of fast information30:59 - The human element of policy38:36 - Quit vs. Grit42:16 - Diving into the crypto world50:50 - Mind your liquidity56:17 - Periods, ages and regimes59:40 - The end of Globalization & what this means?01:03:12 - Being a data detective01:06:01 - Final...

Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marko on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?25:42 - What actually causes recessions?32:33 - Using constraints based analysis37:15 - What is the median voter theory?40:33 - Are median voters controlled by...

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:52 - What happened this week?07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve? 11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers30:11 - Asset...

Today, we are joined by Simon Hunt, who has decades of experience in the copper industry, for a conversation on the state of the global macro environment, both currently and in the years to come. We discuss climate change and the extreme implications it will have on our lives, how the current state of war will impact the economy and how we are on a path to very high inflation and interest rates. We also discuss why Hunt do not believe we are in a commodity super cycle and how he predicts the commodity market will perform the coming years, what keeps Hunt up at night and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Simon.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:58 - Introduction to Simon Hunt06:30 - The process of Hunt’s work13:12 - Hunt’s global macro view20:52 - Are we approaching a 3rd World War?27:56 - What will happen to interest rates?29:43 - What about equities?33:22 - Is it all about to crash?34:33 - A commodity super cycle?41:13 - The relationship between the different currencies43:21 - How Hunt currently invest45:12 - What keeps Hunt up at night?46:49 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some...

Richard Brennan joins us for a very important conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the FTX crypto collapse and CPI melt-up. We discuss how the outlook of inflation is changing and how it impacts trends, how the concept of "pants size" relates to different lookback periods as well as stops and the importance of position sizing, the difference between different position sizing schemes and how to best utilize them. We also discuss the trading opportunities that the uncertainty of the current environment brings and how trend following is part of it, what drive trends and why trend following is an essential tool in diversifying your portfolio, how uncertainty in the markets causes a shift in trader behaviour and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:26 - What happened this week?11:32 - Industry performance update15:41 - Q1, Daniel: Tight or loose pants for different lookback periods22:52 - Q2, Henrik: Trade-offs between different position sizing schemes34:51 - Trading opportunities that uncertainty brings48:02 - Why is trend following so great in times of uncertainty?01:17:49 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key...

Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Episode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity30:03 - The impact of trend37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets46:10 - Using skew in your strategy52:57...

Today, Rob Carver joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we also address this week's press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading. Then we explain the challenges in the UCITS space and how regulation affects these products, and why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversion systems, the importance of analyzing trading costs and if it is worth learning how to trade futures, if you have a small account. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, and how to decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:58 - The biggest takeaways from the week?11:36 - Industry performance update13:27 - Status on Rob’s book14:38 - Q1, Simon: What is the shortest term that Rob has looked at in trend following / momentum?25:26 - Q2, Matthew: Relationship between UCITS funds's lower vol and Trend Following allocation? & Advice for small investors32:20 - Comment, Mark: Confusing asset classes and trading strategies39:22 - Q3, Toby: About building mean reversing systems40:58 - Q4, Zach: How to approach holding periods and rolling costs?43:22 - Q5, Anis: Cash...

Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow William White.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:12 - Introduction to William White04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point?23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes? 33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy?40:33 - The debt problem52:24 - Has central bank credibility been...

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful week, with Elon Musk taking over Twitter, the META stock taking a big hit and much more. We discuss how to approach asset allocation when adding trend following to your portfolio, how to find the optimal allocation and why Trend Following is often the most consistent part of the portfolio. We also discuss why it is important to think about forward looking risks and the idea that we are moving into a new era and regime, the unpredictability of the current inflation and why the rule-based strategies will have the upper hand as well as reflecting on next week’s episode with William White and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:58 - Summary of the week07:51 - Industry performance update15:38 - The optimal allocation24:42 - Trend Following is the most consistent part of the Portfolio? 37:22 - Are we moving into a new era?47:37 - Reflecting on the upcoming conversation with William White52:29 - Unforeseen consequences of QE55:40 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: GIC-ThinkSpace-Building-Balanced-Portfolios-for-the-Long-Run.pdf<a...

Today, we have the pleasure of having Adam Rozencwajg back for another conversation on the global energy crisis, this time primarily focusing on the demand side of the crisis. We discuss oil reserves, OPEC and how disruptions in supplies impact the energy sector, why we are seeing a spike in demand for oil and how investors are changing their trading behaviour to adapt to the crisis, the impact of the rise of the emerging market middle class and the challenges of structural inflation. We also address how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the energy crisis and how some conspiracy theorists believe that all this conflict is tied together, how the energy crisis affects the American Mid-Term Election and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:06 - The highlights of the previous conversation on energy supply13:02 - Adam’s perspective on the demand side21:57 - Blame it on the inflation?29:11 - The opportunities of a divided world36:50 - Has demand actually decreased? 42:40 - What can go wrong in regards to the election?51:00 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you...

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following as well as Volatility, following yet another fast paced and eventful week. We discuss the challenges of being long volatility in the current environment and how under-performing equity stock market volatility is the new normal, the increased popularity of volatility strategies post 2018 and 2020 and different ways of knowing how the strategies may behave in an inflationary environment. We also discuss concerning liquidity conditions and what has caused the current situation, what investors should prioritize, in terms of allocation, to protect their portfolio, how the increase in strength of the U.S. Dollar affects the markets, how investors and pension funds act when inflation is sky rocketing and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:28 - What happened this week?08:37 - Industry performance update10:30 - Discussing an article from EQD18:49 - Going into unknown territory23:55 - Is liquidity becoming a problem?35:26 - Volatility strategies vs. Trend Following43:15 - The strength of the U.S. Dollar51:26 - Alternative markets... could liquidity be drying out? 56:35 - What happens when inflation is so high?01:01:48 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help...

Richard Duncan, Economist and best-selling Author, joins us for a conversation on new ways of thinking about economic growth and prosperity. We discuss the historical aspects of growth and how credit creation and consumption generate economic growth, how foreign central banks create credit and how it has created an economic bubble in the American economy, how the U.S. economy has become addicted to credit growth and how the combination of a negative wealth effect and credit contraction poses a threat to the economy. We also the discuss the importance of the CHIPS and Science Act, how China could become the new superpower of the world and what the U.S. can do to prevent it, what a multi trillion dollar investment could mean for the American economy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Richard on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:29 - Introduction to Richard Duncan and his book15:35 - Credit creation and consumption - a long term growth strategy?22:54 - The problems with foreign central bank credit31:45 - Reflecting on Alan Greenspan’s response34:02 - Addicted

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta Investments LLC, for a conversation on managed futures replication, ETFs and how they have found a way to get these essential strategies into more investor portfolios. We discuss how they do they have constructed the replication strategies and how Andrew have been able to gain enormous traction among advisers. We also touch on why Andrew does not include crypto and how the price of ETF is established. We take lots of questions and round our conversation off by discussing why managed futures have become an essential part of a portfolio and why Andrew believe that the demand for the strategy will continue to be strong for years to come and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on TwitterEpisode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:57 - This week in Trend Following?06:38 - Industry performance update08:34 - A bit of background to Andrew and his work15:12 - The mechanics of their replication strategy20:20 - Getting correlation right...is that enough?34:25 - What about flat periods?41:19 - What is the hardest part of what you do?44:29 - Q1, Brian: Is there any tax advantages to your product?46:01 - Q2, Jerry: What does your investor base look like?53:19 - Are cryptocurrencies part of your universe?57:16 - Q3, Jerry: How is the price of the ETF made up?59:24 - Q4, Mike: Will capacity become an issue at a certain level

Today, Annie Duke, Author and former professional poker player, joins us for a conversation on learning under certainty and making better decisions in an uncertain world, based on her book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away”. We discuss when is the right time to quit and what an expedition at Mount Everest can teach us about quitting, why there are no benefits of “learning the lesson the hard way” and why we tend to quit when it is too late, the importance of having kill criteria and splitting the decision. We also discuss why Duke recommends to keep your approach systematic and why setting goals is not always beneficial, the importance of finding a quitting coach and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Annie on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:24 - Introduction to Annie Duke and her book 07:14 - Key takeaways from her book10:03 - Quitting at the right time18:08 - Work smarter, not harder23:04 - Are we overestimating ourselves?29:57 - Setting rules and making decisions35:27 - The benefits of splitting...

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we reflect on what might be the strongest year for Trend Following on record. We discuss the robustness of Trend Following and how it allows investors to survive in times of uncertainty, how to handle stop-loss when calculating ATR and advice for entering and exiting trades. We also discuss trend identification and why you should avoid prescriptive visual methods, what we can learn from the human hearing when identifying trends and the importance of systematizing your decisions. We finish talking about how to extract and capture trends from your data and why it is important to make your system adaptable to change, why short term look-back periods might not be profitable, why nearly all traders and investors are trend followers and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:15 - What happened this week?07:22 - Strongest year for Trend Following on record14:37 - Industry performance update18:12 - Q1, Josh: Tips for using ATR-based stop loss29:18 - Methods for identifying trends47:39 - Fishing for trends53:37 - Short term vs. long term look-back periods57:47 - Are all investors trend followers?01:09:58 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not a long-vol strategy and how Gayed uses Lumber vs Gold as a market, Risk-on Risk-off indicator and how he uses treasuries as a tool to look forward in time. We also dig into why Gayed believe that higher rates is indicative of an increasing economic activity, why your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself, how buying used items can be a way to fight inflation and why the best investment opportunities happens on dislocations, the reason working harder does not necessarily generate better results and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Michael on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed06:05 - What Michael learned from the Great Recession?13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?34:34...

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for our weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful month of September and a good year for trend, so far. We discuss what causes trends and why we are starting to see bigger moves in markets in recent years, whether the economy will have a Soft, Hard or No landing and what impact it will have on market performance, why we might still be in a commodity super cycle and why commodities are linked to volume unlike financial assets. We also discuss what Alan has learned from his recent road trip, the unintended consequences of a Liability Driven Investment Strategy in the pension fund system, why what we saw this week in the UK may be the start of a "death" cycle according to one pension fund consultant and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:52 - Summary of the week08:34 - Industry performance update09:54 - Reflecting on the month of September14:38 - Why do we see trends in markets?24:12 - Soft, Hard or No landing?31:45 - Are we still in a commodity super cycle?40:39 - Key takeaways from Alan’s road trip48:46 - Article from Wall Street Journal on the UK Pension Fund debacle56:27 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics

Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:01 - Heading into the winter10:42 - Flood the market with oil...a good idea?14:50 - Understanding the supply side29:30 - Venezuela - A hot spot?33:21 - Is the SPR in trouble?40:12 - The role of the different energy commodities42:51 - Why convergence and how to take advantage of it51:56 - The end of energy abundance59:57 - Is nuclear the future?01:05:18 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:...

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins after an intense week for central banks and global markets. We discuss how the current situation affects us as Trend Followers and the potential systemic risks in the futures exchange community in case of a global financial reset event and how we can use what we learned during the pandemic to tackle the issues of liquidity. We also discuss the difference between CTAs and Trend Followers and why the big investment banks should support their trend following clients...instead of trying to front-run our signals. We debate the global fixed income markets and how central banks create the foundation of a global recession, how what we are experiencing now in terms for trendiness in the markets may just be the beginning, why people who have a need for closure don’t do well with uncertainty and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:23 - Key events from this week?11:15 - Industry performance update16:25 - Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event?25:18 - Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies39:55 - Digging into the global fixed income markets44:44 - Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market49:29 - Is the panic yet to come?55:02 - Closure and dealing with uncertainty01:03:15 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Michael on Linkedin and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work07:38 - How much debt is there globally?14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?16:08 - The off-shore market 19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S.41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think?50:10 - What if the 10-year...

Rob Carver returns after his extended holiday and kicks off by taking a nostalgic look back to 1985 as the British Pounds this week hit the lowest level since that year, to reflect on how markets tend to go in cycles. We also address dynamic optimisation, whether it contributes to make more markets "tradable" and the use of "non-tradable" markets, how Rob uses correlation and clustering for his classification approach and his strategy allocating to Trend Following. Additionally, we discuss techniques for Trend Following on single stocks and determining distances in a continuous MA crossover system, strategies to increase the capacity of a Trend Following program and running multiple different systems together, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Key takeaways from the week?15:35 - What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation?22:52 - Industry performance update25:52 - Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable?32:21 - Q1, Follow-up: About adding "non-tradable" markets35:39 - Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach 43:15 - Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment-grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds49:46 - Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized...

Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of human behaviour, the Malthusian trap and how the industrial evolution has impacted humanity and how geography, culture and diversity is a key factor in achieving equality. We also address the costs and benefits of diversity within a society and how we need diversity to generate more growth and complex solutions, why China will be left behind due to a lack of cultural fluidity, the process of measuring diversity, how we can improve going forward and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Oded on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:00 - Introduction to Oded Galor07:29 - Fundamental insights from Galor’s book09:49 - From Stagnation to Growth21:22 - Education and the labour force30:24 - The impact of longer-term structural...

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we discuss why the crisis we experience at the moment might be worse than previous crises, such as what was experienced in the 1970’s. We also discuss the turtle trading method and how ATR can be used for entering and exiting trades, how Richard adjusts his trailing stop according to the price and level of volatility and why simplicity is the most robust solution to deal with complex markets. Additionally, we address how Trend Following can be used as a diversification tool for your portfolio, the principle of return stacking and how it is used in Trend Following, why more people are turning away from the 60/40 portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:26 - The stark warning from Niall Ferguson07:01 - What happened this week?10:35 - Industry performance update12:47 - Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing23:19 - The relationship between trailing stop and volatility32:45 - Simplicity and sticking to your model39:32 - Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated?53:31 - The principle of return stacking01:04:52 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to...

Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation21:31 - The historical perspective29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay?48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory?53:18 - Bottom-Up or...

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following where we reflect on the ongoing instability in the markets and look back on the month of August. We also discuss behavioural biases and why we may need to distinguish between managed futures and trend following, an article by Quantica on the benefits of trend following and how it can without a doubt improve your portfolio. Lastly, we reflect on the annual event at Jackson Hole and the BIS talking about the challenges ahead, the 2% inflation target and how it can impact the economy if changed, the Volcker tightening cycle and the importance of narratives as well as an update on Jeremy Grantham’s super bubble hypothesis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:01 - Summary of the week09:44 - Industry performance update11:46 - Reflecting on the month of August16:13 - Alan’s perspective on the Cliff Asness article28:01 - The undisputed benefits of Trend Following38:00 - Key takeaways from Jackson Hole46:00 - Comment from BIS49:45 - Are we leaving the 2% inflation target?53:54 - Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle01:00:20 - Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham01:04:23 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jason on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:35 - Introduction to Jason Morrow08:02 - Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio13:21 - How does inflation affect URS's portfolio?20:27 - Building and balancing the portfolio24:29 - Public vs. private equities31:22 - Using multiple asset allocating strategies38:06 - Their approach to selecting managers41:15 - Evaluating quant strategies45:51 - Behavioural biases in manager selection50:27 - Return expectations setting for alts55:42 - Mastering...

Jerry Parker joins me for a raw conversation on Trend Following, the day after Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole on fighting inflation and achieving economic stability. We also discuss the pros and cons of CTA/Managed futures replication strategies and the importance of investing in your own fund as a manager, the evolution of Trend Following and why Trend Following might be the Perfect Portfolio. We touch on different ways of diversifying your portfolio and why correlation is not always reliable friend. Lastly, we discuss an article by Morgan Housel on why it is important to identify the core principles (in our case of Trend Following) and how incentives are the strongest force in the world, the importance of having confidence whilst being humble and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:51 - Summary of the week08:35 - Industry performance update12:21 - Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies 26:19 - Aligning incentives as a manager33:28 - Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal46:47 - Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following51:33 - Crisis alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio01:03:40 - Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles01:11:15 - Confidence vs. Ability01:14:33 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are...

Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets59:14 - What happens to the dollar?01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?01:12:24 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro03:22 - What happened this week?13:36 - Industry performance update16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting"37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference01:03:55 -...

Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Darius on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 0:00 - Intro03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months26:18 - What about the longer term?31:39 - The historical perspective39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now48:22 - Dealing with external factors58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering01:02:07...

Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss what really matters within Trend Following, as well as an update on the reaction to the latest CPI data. We also address questions from listeners regarding how to achieve a robust portfolio by avoiding recency bias and using a slow adaptive process, how sample size is most optimally used in Trend Following and the advantages of using a simplistic approach in your trading system. Lastly, we discuss the concept of warehousing risk and how it should be taking into account as part of the risk management. We analyse an article by Morgan Housel about long tails and how it drives every system with exceptional performance, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:36 - Review of the market action post CPI data?07:27 - Industry performance update11:35 - Q1, Gareth: Emphasising recent performance vs. over optimisation21:13 - Q2, Antonio: Why not use a smaller sample size?41:45 - What does warehousing risk mean?50:52 - Tails, you win - Analysis of Morgan Housel article56:50 - Top 3 things that matter the most in Trend Following01:05:58 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together...

Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Edward on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:19 - Introduction to Edward 04:19 - The process of writing his latest book14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic...

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss the ongoing instability in the markets and rising inflation, and why we, as investors, should keep an open mind for what is to come. We address the pros and cons of replication strategies, the performance of the past months and why we are beginning to see a shift in the markets. We review some recent articles, including an interview with Edward Chancellor, who is current with a new book, The Price of Time. Topics we cover include the impact of low interest rates, how we are in a war economy and how we are seeing a shift in the aggregate supply curve, expectations and predictions for inflation in the coming time and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:02 - What happened this week?14:20 - Trend Following update of the week16:55 - Replicating vs. hiring managers22:30 - Reflecting on the past months market reversals40:36 - Why is Trend Following performing well at the moment?48:06 - Discussing Edward Chancellor’s interview53:06 - Zoltan Pozsar’s article on war and interest rates58:56 - Bridgewater article on inflation and conversation with Bilal Hafeez01:06:45 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know...

Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Bilal on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:03 - Introduction to Bilal Hafeez07:51 - How does the community respond to the current environment?10:43 - FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months23:17 - An inflation story29:39 - Demographics - is it inflationary or dis-inflationary?35:20 - What is next for asset allocation44:03 - Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia?51:58 - Lessons learned from previous

Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker where we dive into some of the highlights from the challenging month of July and how the industry has handled the current high level of volatility and trend reversals, why Trend Following continues to work but how narratives can create vicious reversals in the markets. We also discuss questions from listeners regarding Jerry’s strategies for entering and exiting trades, advice for backtesting using continuous futures contracts, how to handle stop losses and including equities in your allocation strategy. Lastly, Jerry describes why he is in favour of accidental diversification and why he is always on the hunt for outliers, why adding more markets has no impact on the robustness of a system and why he prefers to be a “slow tractor”. We finish off discussing how some firms claim that they can replicate the returns of Hedge Funds and CTAs without charging much for it and Jerry reveals a profound change to how he wants to extract trends from markets...even if it means that he will more correlated to Equities.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:02 - Market overview03:52 - Major events of the month16:00 - The importance of narratives19:16 - How Jerry handles equities22:39 - Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first?25:55 - Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts30:02 - Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion36:09...

Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to predict markets and how monetary policy has contributed to economic instability, the incentives for a company’s management and how to balance the level of leverage. Lastly, we discuss reasons why policy makers should be focusing on Q, what Andrew has planned for the future and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Andrew on Smithers & Co & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:15 - Introduction to Andrew 03:28 - Key messages from his book06:42 - How is the Q Ratio constructed?14:34 - The idea of hindsight value23:31 - How Quantitative Easing caused instability?26:49 - How remuneration policies have led to an increased Q value31:14 - The incentives for management42:30 - Should policy makers focus more on...

Mark Rzepczynsky joins us today for a weekly talk on Trend Following, where we discuss how we are beginning to see stagflation and recession around the world, how to manage systemic risk as a trend follower, how to construct your portfolio using Trend Following funds and why it’s preferred to let Trend Following funds replace bonds and commodities, whilst leaving equities in your portfolio. Additionally, we discuss how a global macro binary world allows for Trend Following to work and why Mark believe in “let prices speak for themselves”. We round things off discussing how the Fed uses the “Powell Call” rather than the "Greenspan Put" to determine how they should react to the markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:43 - Recap of the major events from this week?09:43 - Industry performance update12:40 - Q1, Alp: How to manage Systemic Risks32:40 - Q2, Algernond: Portfolio construction using Trend Following funds41:05 - A global macro binary world and its impact on trend following53:13 - Revival of accepting price action when it comes to investment process01:01:18 - Moving beyond the Greenspan Put01:04:39 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Manoj on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates?15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased?22:31 - Using...