Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain.This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI.(00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105 (01:47) - Introduction and Welcome (05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography (08:48) - AGI House and collectives (43:59) - AI and Scientific Research (45:52) - Existential Risks and Doom (54:14) - AI and Human Progress (01:26:42) - Job Automation and Society (01:31:35) - Future of AI and Technology –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Links:Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Futurehttps://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034Dan's 2025 annual letterhttps://danwang.co/2025-letter/Related episodes:Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome (02:14) - Breakneck - Dan's huge book (05:00) - China's Technological and Political Landscape (21:07) - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents (47:59) - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua (51:09) - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter (52:56) - China's Market Competition and Innovation (56:34) - AI, Automation, and Future Risks –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.Links:Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijinghttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72Previous crossover episodes:Weeks Where Decades Happenhttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happenAI, China, Tariffs, Geopoliticshttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84(00:00) - Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103 (02:10) - US-China Economic Tensions (05:45) - Technology and Strategic Shifts (08:48) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy (17:43) - Middle East Developments (28:41) - US-China Competition and Taiwan (33:44) - Venezuela and International Law –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.Links:Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8Previous episodes on frontier AI capabilities in math and theoretical physicshttps://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theoretical-physics-with-generative-ai-101https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/ais-win-math-olympiad-gold-prof-lin-yang-ucla-97Chapter Markers:(00:00) - Introduction (02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits (03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare (08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF (20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO (31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge (55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026 –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists.Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”!He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state-dependent modifications of quantum mechanics), work now accepted for publication in Physics Letters B after peer review. Remarkably, the main idea in the paper originated de novo from GPT-5.Links:X discussion - https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1996034522308026435Companion paper: Theoretical Physics With Generative AI -  https://drive.google.com/file/d/16sxJuwsHoi-fvTFbri9Bu8B9bqA6lr1H/viewPhysics paper - https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.15935 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0370269325008111Related discussion of AI and theoretical physics with Prof. Nirmalya Kajuri (IIT) and Prof. Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL) - https://youtu.be/BRuDd3l0e3kRelated video: AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – Manifold #97 - https://youtu.be/8JeRCqNg7RcChapter markers:(00:00) - Intro: AI discussion with specialized physics at the end (03:40) - The current AI landscape for science: frontier models, Co-Scientist, and recent math breakthroughs (11:01) - Why models help and why they fail: errors, deep confabulation, and the research risk (15:54) - The Generator–Verifier workflow: how chaining model inference suppresses mistakes (23:30) - Project origin: testing models on Hsu’s older nonlinear QM/QFT work (30:35) - The “GPT-5 moment”: Tomonaga–Schwinger angle appears and produces the key equation (40:35) - Wild goose chases & a practical heuristic: axiomatic QFT detour; Generator-Verifier convergence (51:44) - Referee-driven test case: Kaplan–Rajendran model, past-lightcone geometry, and verification (55:55) - Tooling & outlook: automation prototype, chaining into “supermodels,” where this is headed (59:39) - Physics slides (advanced): TS integrability, microcausality, and why nonlinearity threatens locality –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Murtaza Hussain is a reporter for Drop Site News, which has brokenimportant stories based on recently obtained Epstein emails. Hussainreports that Epstein had an “extensive relationship with Israeliintelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of othercountries, as well... He was a dealmaker and a fixer at a very, veryelite level.”Links:Drop Site News series on Epstein and Israelhttps://www.dropsitenews.com/s/epstein-and-israelFormer Israeli spy Ari Ben Menashe on Jeffrey Epsteinhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1994046737040712144(01:08) - Introduction (02:20) - The Mission of Drop Site News (06:00) - Epstein Emails (15:28) - Epstein connections and elite power (35:48) - Epstein and intel agencies (39:54) - Ari Ben Menashe and the Iran Contra Affair (42:21) - Media Censorship and Political Implications (47:33) - The Future of Epstein Investigations –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true.Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry.Kyle Chan episode:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/kyle-chan-on-the-future-of-us-china-competition-94Chinese industrial maximalism: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism(00:00) - Introduction (00:49) - Jian Gaokao score was 23rd in all of Fujian = Econ at Beida, not Genomics! (05:21) - China's Industrial Policy and Innovation (24:19) - Domestic supply chain strategy; How Huawei became a national champion due to US sanctions (34:13) - Venture Capital in China (36:13) - Hard Tech Investments (37:40) - Regulations of Tech Giants (44:28) - Future of China Technological Development –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term.Scott’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastrophe-Ukraine/dp/1733647376X handle: @scotthortonshow(00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked? –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research, legal analysis, and complex document processing.https://github.com/lyang36/IMO25/blob/main/IMO25.pdfhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1948189075707469942Chapter markers:(00:00) - AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) – #97 (00:57) - Prof. Lin Yang, UCLA (04:27) - Journey from Physics to Computer Science: 2 PhDs (11:15) - Transition to AI from Theoretical CS (13:16) - AI Pipeline Math Olympiad: Gold Medal! (28:23) - Probability Amplification (29:00) - Applications in Industry and Legal Analysis (29:58) - Challenges in Model Reasoning and Verification (33:23) - Future of AI in Scientific Research and AGI Speculations –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing.https://chat.z.ai/Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_orgChapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Z.ai's Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized Models and Scientific Contributions (39:02) - AI Chips and Model Training in PRC (50:54) - Open Source AI and Future Predictions –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfactsThe theme of this episode derives from Lenin:“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology (12:27) - The SCO summit and its implications (20:24) - Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement (25:00) - Trump's South Asian blunder? (32:14) - The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace (40:01) - Israel's loss of popular support on both the left and the right (46:12) - Bipolarity or multipolarity? –Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed rail, and consumer electronics. The book will describe the wide range of industrial policy tools used in China and their ongoing efforts in other industries, such as semiconductors and biotechnology.Kyle Chan writes a popular newsletter called High Capacity on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure, particularly in China and India.Personal website: https://www.kyleichan.com/NYT op-ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/china-us-trade-tariffs.htmlLu Feng interview: https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalismChapter Markers:(00:00) - Introduction (00:50) - Kyle's Background and Research Interests (05:51) - China vs. India: A Comparative Study of Railway Development (12:38) - The Broader Implications of Industrial Policy (37:48) - Introduction to Industrial Maximalism (38:54) - China's Manufacturing Strategy (41:33) - US-China Technological Competition (59:45) - Global Collaboration and Future Outlook Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes student behavior (including eye-tracking during video lessons) and adapts its presentation and testing to individual learning patterns.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Joleen Liang: Co-Founder of Squirrel AI (02:14) - Squirrel AI: Beginnings and scale (14:44) - AI vs Human Teachers (33:51) - Learning environment: tablet, headphones, human supervisors/analysts (51:11) - Challenges and Opportunities in the US Market Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley.A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers.https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-9eb1f4b692f241d894462ddf1ab34617http://isomorphisms.sdf.org/maxdama.pdfSteve and Max discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Max Dama's Early Life and Education (02:19) - Journey into Trading and Career Development (06:56) - The High-Frequency Trading Industry (26:42) - Academic Foundations for Trading (27:50) - Computer Science in Trading (28:57) - Insights into the Trading Industry (35:49) - AI and the future of HFT Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.https://makesunsets.com/Previous Manifold episodes on climate:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-a-carbon-neutral-future-57https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/tim-palmer-status-and-future-of-climate-modeling-16https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/klaus-lackner-on-carbon-capture-climate-change-and-physics-40Steve and Andrew discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career (06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience (11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept and Science (32:53) - Exploring Supersonic and Balloon-Based Solutions (33:45) - Environmental Concerns and Biodegradable Solutions (36:13) - Business Model and Cooling Credits (39:26) - Future Prospects and Climate Modeling Challenges Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Manifold has its own Discord channel!  https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NXThe purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A (02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics (09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary (29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities (36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense (45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips Links related to Q&A:Best genomic predictor for cognitive ability: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936401098345980207Ted Postol on missile defense: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theodore-a-postol-nuclear-weapons-missile-technology-and-u-s-diplomacy-12Sputnik moment: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1873541234125316367China-US comparisons:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-shanghai-reflections-on-china-in-2024-73https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1934216476560388250Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.Steve and Omar discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI (10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind (16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs (33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree (42:58) - AI and The Workforce (58:02) - The Intersection of Physics and AI Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China. “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery. Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373(00:00) - Introduction to Patrick McGee and his Book (03:05) - The Apple-Foxconn Partnership (07:07) - China's Industrial Transformation and Apple's Role (32:48) - Automation Challenges in Apple's Production (34:50) - Chinese Innovation and Huawei's Rise (36:15) - The Impact of US-China Trade Tensions (38:08) - Apple's Internal Struggles and Future Outlook (48:56) - Hidden gems in the book Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?Read TP Huang on X:  https://x.com/tphuang (00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87 (00:32) - Introduction to the India-Pakistan Conflict (02:15) - Details of the Air Battle (04:40) - Expert Analysis by TP Huang (08:34) - Analysis of Air Battle Tactics and Technology (12:40) - Role of Chinese Technology (16:13) - Implications for Future Warfare (25:23) - Indian and Pakistani Military Strategies (34:34) - Unexpected Aggression: India's Miscalculation (36:52) - Pakistan's Strategic Restraint (39:19) - The Rafale Controversy: A Deep Dive (43:08) - Electronic Warfare: Myths vs. Reality (52:31) - Future of Indian Air Force: Tough Choices Ahead Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.Zihan's homepage:  https://zihanwang314.github.io/(00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China (11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US (16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research (31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints (33:01) - Data Bottleneck in Pre-trained Models (34:12) - Transformer Architecture and Scaling Laws (36:30) - Efficiency in Model Training (47:44) - Chain of Experts Architecture (01:01:06) - Future of AI and Robotics Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011(00:00) - Introduction (01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan (02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University (05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation (14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures (41:48) - China's Auto Market (42:38) - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism (43:20) - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing (44:28) - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains (49:34) - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence (51:50) - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/(00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - China AI (02:30) - DeepSeek (04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance (08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives (12:54) - China Meritocracy (24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China (37:12) - European Defense and Security (41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."(00:00) - Introduction (02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel' (06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences (13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism (18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom (26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships (32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics (40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth (45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning (48:14) - The Hard Problem of Consciousness (50:38) - Free Will and Determinism (52:53) - Darwinian Nihilism and Nick Land (58:17) - Historical Perspectives on East Asian Civilization (01:03:11) - The State of Literary Fiction (01:16:45) - AI and Literature (01:19:44) - AI and Human Meaning Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.(00:00) - Introduction (02:07) - US-Russia Relations (03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy (05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia (09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion (14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions (29:37) - US Wealth Inequality (40:37) - Debating Wealth Inequality and Welfare States (42:35) - Homelessness and Government Intervention (45:18) - Employment Rates and Economic Behavior (50:12) - San Francisco's Homelessness Crisis (53:46) - US vs. Europe: Economic Divergence (01:06:06) - Cultural Differences in Economic Growth (01:10:48) - AI and Job Market Transformation (01:13:50) - Challenges in AI Adoption (01:15:16) - Consumer vs. Business Tech Adoption (01:15:56) - Slow AI Integration in Businesses (01:17:34) - AI in Customer Service (01:23:48) - Resistance to AI (01:26:36) - AI and Productivity (01:37:35) - Debates on Technological Progress Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.https://x.com/MishaLaskinSteve and Misha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education (03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI (05:47) - First Startup Experience (07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning (08:06) - Academic Postdoc at Berkeley (14:31) - Joining Google DeepMind (16:36) - Reinforcement Learning and Language Models (26:42) - Challenges and Future of AI (48:30) - Unique Perspective from Physics Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation. Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China (04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact (06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough (11:32) - The Role of Government in Tech Development (26:17) - Humanoid Robots: The Next Frontier (38:01) - Huawei and PLA? (40:49) - The Semiconductor Race (43:13) - Huawei's accelerated chip development (45:13) - Government's Role in Technological Advancements (46:21) - China's Domestic Tech Ecosystem (48:56) - Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship in China (51:57) - Corporate Culture and Innovation (55:48) - China's Competitive Edge in Various Industries (01:00:00) - Perceptions and Realities of Chinese Tech (01:08:37) - When will China be "investible" again for Western funds?  Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.  – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award. He studied English Literature and Computer Science at Harvard College, and graduated from Harvard Law School. https://kenliu.name/ Steve and Ken discuss:  00:00 Meet Ken Liu: Acclaimed Sci-Fi and Fantasy Writer04:25 The Immigrant Experience and Cultural Perspectives09:22 Harvard, MSFT, HLS, Litigation15:01 The Art of Storytelling and Technology34:03 Controversy in AI Reasoning34:31 Technology Outstripping Science35:22 AI and the Arts38:30 The Future of AI in Art42:44 AI's Role in Creative Processes50:04 Art, Automation, and Society57:31 Favorite Science Fiction and Fantasy01:03:06 The Genius of Philip K. DickMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.  – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power (00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model (02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute (10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations (15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China (34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology (42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs (46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes (52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities (01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments (01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases (01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China (01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Relevant links:Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dpChapters:(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam (03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved" (04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal (08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses (20:10) - Danielle Anderson and the Wuhan BSL-4 Lab (24:38) - The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak (29:28) - The Furin Cleavage Site Controversy (36:43) - NIAID Funding and the Wuhan Connection (40:53) - Capabilities and Limitations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Baric's Lab (44:41) - The DEFUSE Grant and Wuhan Institute of Virology (48:22) - RaTG13 Genome and Its Implications (50:34) - Kristian Anderson's Alarming Discovery (01:00:42) - Feb. 1 Teleconference with Fauci & Baric; Feb. 3 NAS Meeting (01:19:41) - Unintentional vs. Intentional Engineering (01:21:28) - Tracing the Virus to Wuhan, Patient Zero, and the Role of Danielle Anderson (01:29:38) - Rocky Mountain Lab and Virus Processing (01:36:32) - Animal Models, Engineering Aerosol Transmission (01:42:23) - The Smoking Gun Email

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest:http://bach.ai/https://x.com/PlinzSteve and Joscha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany (06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy (10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall (14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences (15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions (19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, universality of information structures and world models (25:29) - Consciousness (41:11) - The ethics of brain interventions, zombies, and the Turing test (43:43) - LLMs and simulated phenomenology (46:34) - The future of consciousness research (48:44) - Cultural perspectives on suffering (52:19) - AGI and humanity's future (58:18) - Simulation hypothesis (01:03:33) - Liquid AI: Innovations and goals (01:16:02) - Philosophy of Identity: the Transporter Problem, Is there anything beyond memory records?  Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.  – Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast (01:19) - The education of a physicist (10:53) - Computational genomics (19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics (26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation (40:39) - University research administration (45:05) - Reproducibility crisis (57:58) - Impact of basic research (01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research (01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition (01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics (01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan (14:17) - Neutrality in international relations (20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality (28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict (37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality (46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies (47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes (51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence (56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics (01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance (01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia (01:30:35) - Philippines' strategic dilemma (01:36:26) - Concluding thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone (41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph (48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology (51:16) - High-speed rail in China (53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!   Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timelineduring this period. PPP and US vs PRC Real GDPhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492 PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852179736035778768 Note to retards, on "Chicoms":https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852195575434715645 Yu Min and the Chinese H-bomb:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497112635671016https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852497765353558371 Me and He Jiankui:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1852693355601199262 Dali:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853239642075648356https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853247317840629820https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1853301562480718195 Lijiang:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854395254105047484https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854503079669838057 MAGA on the Mountain:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674 Business-class lie flat seats on HSR:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855042439280791977 Kumming:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855748351855071433https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856215080637215222https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856239700362834006https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856533059509653578https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1856634646160683273 Shanghai:https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857282310099386857https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857391783770276314https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857574060122845381https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1857653348557603255https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1858033981276467535 Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters:00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness34:13 Globalization and its discontents40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life58:09 Whither China? Xi JinpingMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense (13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis? (21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine? (25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline? (30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame? (34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant? (41:37) - China's energy grid and solar energy transision (46:57) - Will India catch up to or overtake China? (57:06) - Is liberal democracy really necessary for long-term economic prosperity? (01:00:14) - How did Lee Kuan Yew transform Singapore?  Links: Iran ballistic missiles and missile defensehttps://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile Pershing 2 Missilehttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1843450614552113316 Russia-Ukraine war and Iran blowbackhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844551899103863154 India developmenthttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1814994391502667953https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1815047688829706279Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, he was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where he studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.Samo writes and speaks on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. Image has systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”Steve and Samo discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:38) - Meet Samo Burja: Founder of Bismarck Analysis (03:17) - Palladium Magazine: A West Coast Publication (06:37) - The Unique Culture of Silicon Valley (12:53) - Inside Bismarck Analysis: Services and Clients (21:35) - The Role of Technology in Global Innovation (32:13) - The Influence of Rationalists and Effective Altruists (48:07) - European Tech Policies and Global Competition (49:28) - The Role of Taiwan and China in Tech Manufacturing (51:12) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Strategic Alliances (52:49) - China's Provincial Power and Industrial Strategy (56:02) - Urbanization and Demography, Ancient Society (59:41) - Intellectual Pursuits and Cultural Dynamics (01:04:09) - Intellectuals, SF, and Global Influence (01:13:45) - Fertility Rates, Urbanization, and Forgotten Migration (01:22:24) - Interest in Cultural Dynamics and Population Rates (01:26:03) - Daily Life as an Intellectual Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina.I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites!Deus Ex Machina podcast:https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw…Timestamps:(00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background. (11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firsthand in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, US experts and academics were entirely deluded about reality in PRC (20:55) - "Experts" are often miscalibrated (35:03) - Physicists and finance. Was Charlie Munger right to say it's a waste of talent to channel top brains into finance? (45:15) - Hedgehogs, Foxes, and Eagles. Polymathy. (48:41) - Development of modern China as the greatest story of the last 50 years. My first visit to China: the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in 1992. US-China competition and the future of Asian Americans. (56:52) - Genomic Prediction. Genomics of cognitive ability. Leftists holding back genetic science. PING = NIH-funded Pediatric Imagining, Neurocognition, and Genetics study. Stephen J. Gould was a fraud. Asian culture (pragmatic realism) and resistance to woken... (01:05:20) - Physics and Free Will. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have an illusion of self? (01:10:04) - Copenhagen Interpretation of QM: Is there true randomness in Physics? Many Worlds, Foundations of QM, and groupthink in modern physics. (01:19:09) - Christianity, raised as a Methodist by my mother, whose family has been Christian since the 19th century. Religious Experience vs Physics viewpoint. Meat machines programmed by evolution to have mystical religious feelings? (01:21:28) - Raising children, family, happiness, the meaning of life in view of my father's life (01:24:34) - The meaning of life, "All is Vanity" (Ecclesiastes), Religion Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition.Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853Steve and Alf discuss:(00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration (00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise (02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics (28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy (32:23) - China's Path to Liberalization: Past, Present, and Future (45:57) - Geopolitical Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik.Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides):https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik11:56 Hyperscaling genAI23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI?29:45 Quantum black holesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU0:00 Introduction00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society40:49 Fertility and Demography48:37 Life as a Polymath59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question01:09:29 Audience Q&AMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture.00:00 Introduction02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and total workforce39:58 Economic indicators and potential war economy41:03 Singapore as model for PRC development, leadership exchanges45:45 Travel plans, changes since pre-COVID era, YouTube travel content53:00 Freedom of expression1:02:20 Confucianism, leadership styles1:17:57 Backyard Addendum: Further thoughts, travel to ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18Chapter markers:(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide (54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley.Chapters:(00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley (01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley (04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI (23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications (34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness (51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race Links:Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361AI rollout in Philippines Call Centers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kps3M1wMHUMLLM rankings and Qwen2: https://huggingface.co/spaces/open-llm-leaderboard/blogThe Economist on China LLMs: https://archive.ph/nW7chSituational Awareness summary: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1803414701159714825Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.comPhilippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey (08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual (46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy (48:27) - Covid Epidemic Modeling: Bad Science (56:22) - Critique of Scientific and Policy Incentives (01:31:54) - The Messy Reality of Ukraine Maidan Uprising (01:32:59) - Could Security Guarantees Have Prevented the Ukraine War? (02:07:21) - Ukraine War: Long-Term Predictions Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work in catastrophe funds was featured in a cover article for the New York Times Magazine (‘In Nature’s Casino’ by Michael Lewis, 26 August 2007), and he has also testified before US Congress as an expert on the catastrophe bond market (‘Hearings from the 110th Congress’, 6 September 2007). Dr Seo holds a PhD in Biophysics from Harvard University and a BS in Physics from MIT. He is based in Connecticut.Steve and John discuss:00:00 Introduction00:36 Early Career and Influences02:10 The Investor Choice Problem07:21 Academic Background and Family Challenges12:43 First Steps in Finance30:39 Lehman Brothers37:29 Introduction to Cat Bonds44:53 Parallels Between Derivatives and Insurance Markets01:03:22 Building Fermat Capital01:09:51 Future of Catastrophe BondsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X.Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_HartAmazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3Steve and Molson discuss:1:22 Molson Hart's background, experience in China5:26 The IQ Question13:19 Entrepreneurship and China38:40 Selling on Amazon 48:32 Alternatives and Competitors to Amazon50:40 The Future of Amazon55:30 Advice for Aspiring Entrepreneurs57:27 Understanding China1:07:43 China's Rising Global Influence1:16:12 Personal and National Identities1:18:45 Demographics: China's FutureMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.Steve and Jaan discuss:00:00 Introduction00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Investor02:03 Acceleration Toward AGI: Excitement and Anxiety04:29 AI Capabilities and Future Evolution05:53 AI Safety, Ethics, and the Call for a Moratorium07:12 Foundation models: Scaling, Synthetic Data, and Integration13:08 AI and Cybersecurity: Threats and Precautions26:52 Policy goals and desired outcomes36:27 Cultural narratives on AI and how they differ globally39:19 Closing Thoughts and Future DirectionsReferences:Jaan’s top priorities for reducing AI extinction risk: https://jaan.info/priorities/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.Steve and Glenn discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital (23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures (26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies (41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures (47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China (49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP (56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant? (01:17:26) - Future of China's Economy References:Glenn Luk on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlennLukGlenn on High Speed Rail: https://www.readwriteinvest.com/p/is-high-speed-rail-in-china-a-grayMunger and Ricardo: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/03/charlie-munger-ricardo-and-finance.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at Links:Casey Handmer’s website: https://www.caseyhandmer.com/Terraform Industries: https://terraformindustries.com/Nerds on Patrol [Episode 3] - Terraform Industries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9k3dHFJPEUSteve and Casey discuss:0:00 Introduction00:31 Casey's early life and background, from Australia to Caltech07:55 The academic path and transition to tech entrepreneurship10:40 Terraform Industries15:21 Solar costs, efficiency, and global Impact24:25 A world powered by Terraform methane31:27 The entrepreneurial journey: challenges and insights35:01 Investor dynamics and strategic decisions for Terraform41:28 The hard Reality of manufacturing and innovation44:11 Navigating intellectual property and strategic partnerships45:49 The moral and technical challenges of carbon neutrality55:48 Looking ahead: Terraform's next milestones and the solar revolutionMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/Steve and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan13:25 Hong Kong and finance31:53 China property bubble48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observationsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets31:47 Dating markets32:53 The Art of PR38:32 Global reach and community engagement39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuffManifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.Steve and Ray discuss:0:00 Introduction01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.01:03:38 Are things worse today, versus 1963?Books referenced in this episode:JFK and the Unspeakablehttps://www.amazon.com/JFK-Unspeakable-Why-Died-Matters/dp/1439193886Mary's Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedyhttps://www.amazon.com/Marys-Mosaic-Conspiracy-Kennedy-Pinchot/dp/1510708928/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharingFurther discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.htmlCORRECTION: 31:25 The size of our galaxy is not 100 million light years. I should have said ~100 THOUSAND = 100k light years instead!!!Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Sean Reyes is Utah’s Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_ReyesNOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL400:00 Sean Reyes’ early life and family history14:21 Sean's personal journey and career21:28 Political journey and decision to run for AG24:08 The movie Sound of Freedom28:45 The reality of human trafficking31:40 Technology and law enforcement44:00 The horror of human trafficking: victims, aftercare, and the media01:05:23 Future plans and aspirationsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss the US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology.Previous episodes with TP include:China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48Huawei and the US-China Chip War — #44: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/huawei-and-the-us-china-chip-war-44Steve and TP discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (02:23) - Hypersonic weapons and A2AD (08:15) - The evolution of China’s military technology (13:30) - Hypersonic missiles: targeting and interception (29:52) - Surprise attack on Hawaii or Seattle? (33:36) - Japan's role in a U.S.-China military conflict (36:15) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan (42:44) - Amphibious landing, boots on the ground (45:20) - Red lines and Taiwan independence (48:38) - PRC nuclear weapons buildup (51:17) - PRC-Russia alliance: natural resources, technology; Ukraine strategy disaster (59:37) - Future developments of military technology in China (01:11:44) - Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of power Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.https://research.gavekal.com/Steve and Louis discuss:(00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China real estate market (42:48) - The impact of China’s economic growth (48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies (01:07:09) - China’s trade surplus and U.S. debt (01:18:11) - Will there be a U.S. debt crisis? Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Follow him on X @hsu_steve.

Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry.Lynk - https://lynk.world/Steve and Charles discuss: 0:00 Introduction and guest background1:27 Miller's early passion for space3:54 Evolution of commercial space6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX8:01 The challenges of early stage startups11:26 The birth of Lynk, its technical challenges, and breakthroughs33:11 Use cases for satellite connectivity35:20 The plan for Lynk satellites36:41 Competition with Starlink39:25 Investment opportunities in Lynk47:04 Satellite technology and global competition50:21 Impact of Huawei’s satellite phone features59:01 Advice for entrepreneursMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.0:00 Introduction2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehicles6:30 The perception and reality of Chinese products, future of Chinese auto market9:24 The impact of Tesla on the Chinese electric vehicle market14:41 Buying a car in China27:05 China dominates with electric vehicle batteries30:44 The challenges facing Tesla in China40:11 The evolution of smart cars, autonomous vehicles, and self driving50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving59:08 BYD, China’s energy independence, and power grid1:14:04 The downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehiclesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China.Follow him on X @TaylorOgan.Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits1:06:52 US-China competition - the future of innovation is in ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security.Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06/kill-scientists-disrupt-n-weapons-programmes/An excellent documentary film on the life of Indian theoretical physicist Homi Bhabha:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6GEGOvXh4g&ab_channel=InternationalCentreforTheoreticalSciencesSteve and Bharat discuss:0:00 Introduction0:58 Karnad's educational background, nuclear research, journalism career26:50 Refocusing India's defense posture from Pakistan to China45:21 Why don't India and China have better relations?53:33 India's nuclear arsenal1:04:31 The mysterious death of Homi Bhabha, India's Oppenheimer1:28:50 Land of subjugation, the caste system, and English as the language of Indian elitesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.Steve and Yasheng discuss: 0:00 Introduction1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s15:29 Civil service exams and Huang's new book, "The Rise and Fall of the EAST"37:14 Two goals: Developing human capital and indoctrination48:33 Impact of the exam system57:04 China's innovation peak and decline1:12:23 Collaboration and relationship with the West1:21:31 How will the U.S.-China relationship evolve?Yasheng Huang at MIThttps://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/yasheng-huangWeb site:http://www.yashenghuang.com/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.Steve and TP discuss:0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics28:21 Impact on Qualcomm36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for Chinasemiconductor companies42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.47:14 5G and Huawei52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones56:46 Huawei vs Apple and Chinese consumers1:01:33 Chip War and AI model trainingMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies.Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharingCLA and College Learning outcomes:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2015/01/measuring-college-learning-outcomes.htmlHarvard Veritas: Interview with a recent graduatehttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/08/harvard-veritas-interview-with-recent.htmlDefining Merit - Human Capital and Harvard University:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.htmlChapter markers:0:00 Introduction 1:28 University of California system report and the use of SAT scores admissions8:04 Longitudinal study on gifted students and SAT scores (SMPY)12:53 Unprecedented data on earnings outcomes and SAT scores15:43 How SAT scores and university pedigree influence opportunities at elite firms17:35 Non-academic factors fail to predict student success20:49 Predicted earnings24:24 Measured benefit of Ivy Plus attendance28:25 CLA: 13 university study on college learning outcomes32:34 Does college education improve generalist skills and critical thinking?42:15 The composition of elite universities: 4 paths to admission48:12 What happened to meritocracy?51:48 Hard versus Soft career tracks54:43 Cognitive elite at Ivies vs state flagship universities57:11 What happened to Caltech?Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist.Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_GirlInterviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenelloAn earlier Aella interview with Reason:https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/Steve and Aella discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing (12:45) - Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting (29:52) - Pimp culture (38:01) - Seeking Arrangement (43:50) - Cheating (46:50) - OnlyFans, farming simps (51:49) - Incels and sex work (56:24) - Porn and Gen-Z (01:12:43) - Embryo screening (01:21:43) - How far off is IVG? Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements.Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs.Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI.0:00 Introduction and Tim’s background18:02 Tim's interest in the efficiency and accessibility of large language models38:05 Inference, speed, and the potential for using consumer GPUs for running large language models45:55 Model training and the benefits of quantization with QLoRA57:14 The future of AI and large language models in the next 3-5 years and beyondTim's site: https://timdettmers.com/Tim on GitHub: https://github.com/TimDettmersMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan.Sample articles:Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/Steve and Paul discuss:  0:00 Introduction 1:44 Paul’s background; the Green Party (DPP) and Blue Party (KMT) in Taiwan4:40 How the Taiwanese people view themselves vs mainland Chinese15:02 Taiwan taboos: politics and military preparedness15:27 Effect of Ukraine conflict on Taiwanese opinion29:56 Lack of realistic military planning37:20 Is there a political solution to reunification with China? What influence does the U.S. have?51:34 The likelihood of peaceful reunification of Taiwan and China56:45 Honest views on Taiwanese and U.S. military readiness for aconflict with ChinaMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!They discuss:0:00 Introduction1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Court affirmative action ruling50:10 Standardized testing and elite university admissions1:06:18 Divergent views among racial and ethnic groups on affirmative action; radicalized Asian American males1:10:00 Differences between East and South Asians in the West  1:23:03 Class-based preferences and standardized tests1:31:57 Rob Henderson’s next move LINKSRichard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-origins-of-woke-richard-hanania?variant=41004650528802Richard Hanania’s newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/The Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology: https://www.cspicenter.com/Rob Henderson’s newsletter: https://www.robkhenderson.com/Rob Henderson’s new book: Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Troubled/Rob-Henderson/9781982168537UATX: https://www.uaustin.org/forbidden-coursesMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.0:00 Introduction1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling16:59 The litigation landscape21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now?38:02 The landscape of college admissions44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher educationLINKSSCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action:https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/supreme-court-decision-on-race-based-admissions/0a725aaabb459074/full.pdfRichard Sander’s amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-1199/222805/20220509134743957_20-1199%2021-707%20Amicus%20BOM.pdfRichard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-on-scotus-oral-arguments-affirmative-action-and-discrimination-against-asian-americans-at-harvard-and-uncRichard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, and Academic Freedom: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-affirmative-action-mismatch-theory-academic-freedom-6Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.0:00 Introduction1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI 14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside41:28 AI Doomers and AlignmentLinks to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-aiMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000.Steve and David discuss:0:00 Introduction2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy29:44 How Huawei’s strength is tied to China’s economic power36:49 Competition in the global electric vehicles market38:06 Why David thinks European countries like Germany will become closer with China45:29 U.S. manufacturing is falling behind52:08 Potential for war and ongoing U.S.-China competition1:04:07 Predictions for TaiwanLinks:David Goldman in Wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._GoldmanSpengler column:https://asiatimes.com/author/spengler/You Will Be Assimilated: China's Plan to Sino-form the Worldhttps://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Be-Assimilated-Sino-form/dp/1642935409Prisoner’s Dilemma: Avoiding war with China is the most urgent task of our lifetimehttps://claremontreviewofbooks.com/prisoners-dilemma/David Goldman articles in Claremont Review:https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/author/david-p-goldman/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharingChapter markers:0:00 Introduction2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical results21:15 Embedding space, word vectors31:53 Next word prediction as objective function34:08 Attention is all you need37:09 Transformer architecture44:54 The geometry of thought52:57 What can LLMs do? Sparks of AGI1:02:41 Hallucination  1:14:40 SuperFocus testing and examples1:18:40 AI landscape, AGI, and the futureMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate (CollinsInstitute.org), pronatalism activist (Pronatalist.org), and business operator (Travelmax.com).Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone.Steve and Simone discuss:0:00 Introduction1:49 Simone's IVF journey, and embryo screening40:02 Dating; girl autists55:41 Finding a husband, systematized1:09:57 Pronatalism Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.—Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian.Steve and Katherine discuss:0:00 Introduction1:15 Katherine’s early life and background21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter1:33:00 TikTok1:41:41 Adderall1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos1:49:30 Gen-X generation gap: are the kids alright?References:Katherine’s Substack: https://defaultfriend.substack.com/“Mass Shootings and the World Liberalism Made”: https://contra.substack.com/p/mass-shootings-and-the-world-liberalismMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s.Steve and Marc discuss:(01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding (05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California (26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use (33:52) - Frank Zane (38:33) - Robby Robinson (40:32) - Butler, Gaines, and Arnold (42:46) - "Dream Big" (48:18) - Pumping Iron (59:44) - Hypersexuality in bodybuilding (01:10:56) - What's next for Marc References:Watch Dream Big on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Dream-Big-Ken-Sprague/dp/B0B8ST5LNL/Dream Big documentary: https://dreambigdoc.com/Dream Big trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X22ISDn083APumping Iron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lCCk6rgn84Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy.0:00 Introduction1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and education6:31 French and American higher elite education14:44 The Yellow Vests41:46 Mating and HypergamyReferences:On the Yellow Vest Insurrectionhttps://gillessaintpaul.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/on-the-yellow-vest-insurrection/Genes, Legitimacy and Hypergamy: Another Look at the Economics of Marriagehttps://ideas.repec.org/p/ide/wpaper/9118.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos.00:00 Introduction02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination20:52 China demographics & STEM34:29 China IVF40:28 Survey on embryo screening in ScienceReferences:Bing vs Bard and Hallucination https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1625222378383876119China demographics and STEMhttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1620765589752119297https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623279827640848385China IVFhttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623475304432820224https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623478413758500864Survey on embryo screeninghttps://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623783244947722241https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1623664372202500097Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT. 0:00 How do LLMs work?10:22 Impact of ChatGPT15:21 AI landscape24:13 Hallucination and Focus33:09 Applications39:29 Future LandscapeReferences:Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16Blog posts on word vectors and approximately linear vector space of concepts used by the human mind:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-future-of-thought-via-thought.htmlhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2016/12/towards-geometry-of-thought.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and more in this 2-hour episode.Steve and Dominic discuss:0:00 Early Life: Oxford, Russia, entering politics16:49 Keeping the UK out of the Euro19:41 How Dominic and Steve became acquainted: blogs, 2008 financial crisis, meeting at Google27:37 Vote Leave, the science of polling43:46 Cambridge Analytica conspiracy; History is impossible48:41  Dominic on Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of him and the movie “Brexit: The Uncivil War”54:05 On joining British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office: an ultimatum1:06:31 The pandemic1:21:28 The Deep State, talent pipeline for public service1:47:25 Quants and weirdos invade No.101:52:06 Can the Tories win the next election?1:56:27 Trump in 2024? References:Dominic's Substack newsletter: https://dominiccummings.substack.com/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups.Steve and Sahil discuss:0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins24:15 Backstory of Gumroad30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad37:09 Experiments with OpenAI LLM, ChatGPT, and the promise of AIReferences:Sahil's web pagehttps://sahillavingia.com/Ask My Book: interrogate Sahil's book via LLMhttps://askmybook.com/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution.For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29Steve and Geoffrey discuss:0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology14:44 How evolutionary psychology is perceived and where the field is going38:23 The value of higher education: sobering facts about retention49:00 Dating, pickup artists, and relationships1:11:27 Polyamory1:24:56 FTX, poly, and effective altruism1:34:31 AI alignmentMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry.Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peril of Politicizing Science, launched a national conversation among scientists and the general public on the growing influence of political ideology in STEM. It has received over 80,000 views and, according to Altmetric, was the all-time highest-ranked article in the Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters.Steve and Anna discuss:0:00 Anna Krylov’s background, upbringing in USSR7:03 Ideological control and censorship for the greater good?14:59 How ideology underpins DEI work in academic institutions30:40 Captured institutions37:05 How much is UC Berkeley spending on DEI, and where the money is going41:46 Krylov thinks it can get worse52:09 An idea for soliciting anonymous feedback at universitiesResources:Professor Krylov academic page:https://dornsife.usc.edu/chemistry/krylov/Wiki page:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_KrylovThe Peril of Politicizing Science, Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters 2021https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpclett.1c01475Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.

Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam.Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures.Steve and Abdel discuss:00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career10:23 Abdel’s research focus: polygenic traits, geographical stratification21:43 Correlations across geographical regions33:21 Educational Attainment38:51 Comparisons across data sets44:48 Longevity52:04 Reaction to NIH restricting access to data on educational attainmentResources: Abdel Abdellaoui’s Google Scholar citations: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsyseKEAAAAJ&hl=enMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences. Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina.0:00 Rick’s experience at the Supreme Court4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments16:24 Analyzing the court’s questions29:09 The negative impact on Asian American students34:41 Shifting sentiment on affirmative action40:04 Three potential outcomes for Harvard and UNC cases44:00 Possible reasons for conservatives to be optimistic50:31 Final thoughts on experiencing oral arguments in person52:12 Mismatch theory 56:31 The future of higher education Resources Background on the Harvard case:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html Transcripts:https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/20-1199_6537.pdfhttps://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/21-707_m64n.pdfMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science, Jeffrey A. Barrett, of UC Irvine.Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists.Steve and Peter discuss:0:00 How Peter Byrne came to write a biography of Hugh Everett18:09 Everett’s personal life and groundbreaking thesis as a catalyst for the book24:00 Everett and Decoherence31:25 Reaction of other physicists to Everett’s many worlds theory40:46 Steve’s take on Everett’s many worlds theory43:41 Peter on the bifurcation of science and philosophy49:21 Everett’s post-academic life52:58 How Hugh Everett is remembered now References:Many Worlds posts on InfoprocConversations with Dieter ZehMacroscopic Superpositions in Isolated SystemsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank.Steve and Jeffrey discuss:0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-1913:41 Potential for bioweapons research19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotageResources:The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19pandemic, Sachs et al., Sept. 14 2022: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltextWhy the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The USGovernment Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic,Current Affairs, Aug 3 2022: https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56ehbjwy37m5hfahwnm5Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class.Steve and Rob discuss:00:00 Early life and foster experience20:21 Rob’s experience in the Air Force31:26 Transitioning from the Air Force to Yale and then Cambridge44:04 Dating and socializing as an older student50:06 Reflections on the Yale Halloween email controversy1:01:10 Personal incentives and careerists in higher education1:09:45 Luxury beliefs and how they show up in elite institutions1:31:08 Age and moral judgments1:42:50 Rob on resisting legacy academia and his futureLinks:Rob's substackhttps://robkhenderson.substack.com/Luxury Beliefs are the Latest Status Symbol for Rich Americanshttps://nypost.com/2019/08/17/luxury-beliefs-are-the-latest-status-symbol-for-rich-americans/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Professor Lyle Goldstein recently retired after 20 years of service on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). During his career at NWC, he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and has been awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for this achievement. He has written or edited seven books on Chinese strategy and is at work on a book-length project that examines the nature of China-Russia relations in the 21st century. He has a longstanding interest in great power politics, military competition, and security in the pacific region.Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at the Washington think-tank Defense Priorities, which advocates for realism and restraint in U.S.defense policy, and also a visiting professor at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. He earned a PhD at Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and an AB from Harvard. He is fluent in both Chinese and Russian.Steve and Lyle discuss:00:00 Early life and background18:03 Goldstein’s dissertation on China’s nuclear strategy37:35 Pushback on “Meeting China Halfway”41:24 Could the U.S. have prevented war in Ukraine?46:05 How territorial conflicts are influencing China’s relationship with Russia1:00:16 Analyzing war games with U.S., China, and TaiwanLinks:Watson Institute, Brown Universityhttps://watson.brown.edu/china/people/lyle-goldsteinMeeting China Halfway (2015)https://www.amazon.com/Meeting-China-Halfway-Emerging-US-China/dp/162616634XHere's Why War With China Could Elevate to Nuclear StrikesThe National Interest, January 29 2022https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/heres-why-war-china-could-elevate-nuclear-strikes-200099Goldstein's articles at The National Interesthttps://nationalinterest.org/profile/lyle-j-goldsteinMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly.Steve and his guest discuss:0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and the humanities46:47 Access to tenured professors at Harvard50:08 The benefits of the Harvard connection and wider pool of opportunities58:46 Competing with off-scale students 1:00:48 Ideological climate on campus, wokeism, and controversial public speakers1:23:11 Dating at Harvard1:26:52 Z-scores and other metrics to add to the admissions processHarvard Admissions and Meritocracy:http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.htmlhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/09/what-is-best-for-harvard.htmlHarvard Affirmative Action Lawsuit:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.htmlhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/09/former-yale-law-dean-on-harvard-anti.htmlhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/06/harvard-office-of-institutional_21.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus.Links:Richard Lowery at UT Austin:https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-lowery/National Review coverage:https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-brave-prof-fights-the-woke-faculty-at-university-of-texas/Academic Freedom in Crisis:https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/academic-freedom-in-crisis-punishment.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute.He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events.He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR) on climate variability and predictability.After completing his DPhil at Oxford in theoretical physics, Tim worked at the UK Meteorological Office and later the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For a large part of his career, Tim has developed ensemble methods for predicting uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts.In 2020 Tim was elected to the US National Academy of Sciences.Steve, Corey Washington, and Tim first discuss his career path from physics to climate research and then explore the science of climate modeling and the main uncertainties in state-of-the-art models.In this episode, we discuss:00:00 Introduction1:48 Tim Palmer's background and transition from general relativity to climate modeling15:13 Climate modeling uncertainty46:41 Navier-Stokes equations in climate modeling53:37 Where climate change is an existential risk1:01:26 Investment in climate researchLinks:Tim Palmer (Oxford University)https://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/find-an-expert/professor-tim-palmerThe scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change (2019)https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1906691116ExtremeEarthhttps://extremeearth.eu/Physicist Steve Koonin on climate changehttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/how-physicist-became-climate-truth.htmlMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Kishore Mahbubani is Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.  Kishore enjoyed two distinct careers: in diplomacy (1971 to 2004) and in academia (2004 to 2019). He is a prolific writer and speaker on geopolitics and East-West relations. He was twice Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002.  Mr. Mahbubani joined academia in 2004, when he was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKY School), NUS. He was Dean from 2004 to 2017.In this episode Steve and Kishore discuss:0:00 Introduction2:52 Upbringing in Singapore and Asia's rise11:35 How western thinking influences China-U.S. relations23:05 Is China a threat to U.S. hegemony in Asia?25:52 The United States' long-term strategy for China32:13 How trade with ASEAN influences U.S.-China relations40:58 Can ASEAN countries play a diplomatic role between U.S. and China43:05 Xi Jinping's leadership and the zero-sum view of ChinaLinks:Can Asians Think? - https://mahbubani.net/can-asians-think/The Asian 21st Century - https://mahbubani.net/the-asian-21st-century/Has China Won? - https://mahbubani.net/has-china-won/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Gregory Clark is Distinguished Professor of Economics at UC-Davis. He is an editor of the European Review of Economic History, chair of the steering committee of the All-UC Group in Economic History, and a Research Associate of the Center for Poverty Research at Davis. He was educated at Cambridge University and received a PhD from Harvard University.His areas of research are long-term economic growth, the wealth of nations, economic history, and social mobility.Steve and Greg discuss:0:00 Introduction2:31 Background in economics and genetics10:25 The role of genetics in determining social outcomes16:27 Measuring social status through marriage and occupation36:15 Assortative mating and the industrial revolution49:38 Criticisms of empirical data, engagement on genetics and economic history1:12:12 Heckman and Landerso study of social mobility in US vs Denmark1:24:32 Predicting cognitive traits1:33:26 Assortative mating and increase in population varianceLinks:For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 shows Genetics Determines most Social Outcomeshttp://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/ClarkGlasgow2021.pdfFurther discussionhttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/03/genetic-correlation-of-social-outcomes.htmlA Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the Worldhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Farewell_to_AlmsThe Son Also Riseshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Son_Also_Rises_(book)Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine.John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.Steve, Corey, and John discuss:0:00 A quick message for listeners1:21 Introduction2:39 Realist foreign policy worldview15:46 Proxy conflicts and the U.S.21:31 U.S. history: a moral hegemon, or just a hegemon? Zinn and Chomsky29:50 U.S.-China relationship, competing hegemonies?36:44 Will Europe become more united?41:23 China’s ambitions46:12 Europe’s fragmentation and population trends47:57 What drove U.S. interventions after the Cold War?51:36 Coalitions and U.S.-China competitionResources:John Mearsheimer - https://www.mearsheimer.com/The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities - https://www.amazon.com/Great-Delusion-Liberal-International-Realities-ebook/dp/B07H3XRPQSMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Theodore A. Postol is professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is widely known as an expert on nuclear weapons and missile technology.Educated in physics and nuclear engineering at MIT, he was a researcher at Argonne National Lab, worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and was scientific advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations.After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped to build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy.He has received numerous awards, including the Leo Szilard Prize from the American Physical Society for "incisive technical analysis of national security issues that [have] been vital for informing the public policy debate",  the Norbert Wiener Award from Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility for "uncovering numerous and important false claims about missile defenses", and the Richard L. Garwin Award "that recognizes an individual who, through exceptional achievement in science and technology, has made an outstanding contribution toward the benefit of mankind."Steve and Ted discuss:0:00 Introduction2:02 Early life in Brooklyn, education at MIT, work at the Pentagon20:27 Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense plan28:26 U.S. influence on Russia and China’s second-strike capabilities54:41 Missile defense: vs nuclear weapons, scuds, anti-ship missiles (aircraft carriers), hypersonics 1:11:42 Nuclear escalation and the status of mutually assured destruction1:32:24 Analysis of claims the Syrian government used chemical agents against their own people1:44:45 Media skepticism Resources: Theodore Postol at MIT https://sts-program.mit.edu/people/emeriti-faculty/theodore-postol/A Flawed and Dangerous US Missile Defense Plan, G. Lewis and T. Postol, Arms Control Todayhttps://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010-05/flawed-dangerous-us-missile-defense-planReview Cites Flaws in US antimissile Program, NY Times May 17 2010 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/world/18missile.htmlImproving US Ballistic Missile Defense Policy, G. Lewis and F. von Hippel, Arms Control Today, May 2018https://sgs.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/lewis-vonhippel-2018.pdf“Whose Sarin?” by Seymour Hersh (2013) https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n24/seymour-m.-hersh/whose-sarin--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World.Steve and Raghu discuss: 1:34 - Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics20:15 - So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in the title, which govern biological systems26:06 - DNA prediction37:46 - Machine learning / causality in science46:23 - Scaling (the fourth physical principle) 54:12 - Who the book is for and what high schoolers are learning in their bio and physics classes1:05:41 - Science funding, grants, running a research lab1:09:12 - Scientific careers and radical sub-optimality of the existing system Resources: Book - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200408/so-simple-a-beginning Raghuveer Parthasarathy's lab at the University of Oregon - https://pages.uoregon.edu/raghu/ Raghuveer Parthasarathy's blog the Eighteenth Elephant - https://eighteenthelephant.com/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Carl Zha is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, which focuses on China, history, culture, and politics. He is a former engineer now based in Bali, Indonesia.Find Carl on Twitter @CarlZha.Steve and Carl discuss:1. Carl’s background: Chongqing to Chicago, Caltech to Bali, Life as a digital nomad2. Xinjiang (35:20)3. Ukraine (1:03:51)4. China-Russia relationship (1:16:01)5. U.S.-China competition (1:49:26)Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Centennial Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Previously, he taught for nine years in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. His research interests center around the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and computational complexity theory more generally. Scott also writes the blog Shtetl Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/ Steve and Scott discuss:Scott's childhood and education, first exposure to mathematics and computers.How he became interested in computational complexity, pursuing it rather than AI/ML.The development of quantum computation and quantum information theory from the 1980s to the present. Scott's work on quantum supremacy.AGI, AI SafetyMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation.Biography:https://www.cfr.org/expert/sebastian-mallabyhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_MallabyThe Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Futurehttps://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Vlatko Vedral is Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford and Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) at the National University of Singapore. He is known for his research on the theory of Entanglement and Quantum Information Theory.Steve and Vlatko discuss: History of quantum information theory, entanglement, and quantum computingRecent lab experiments that create superposition states of macroscopic objects, including a living creature (tardigrade)Whether quantum mechanics implies the existence of many worlds: are you in a superposition state right now?Present status and future of quantum computingResourcesWeb page:https://www.vlatkovedral.com/Entanglement Between Superconducting Qubits and a Tardigradehttps://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.07978.pdfMacroscopic Superposition States: entanglement of a macroscopic living organism (tardigrade) with a superconducting qubithttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/12/macroscopic-superposition-states.html--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or to Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.Topics discussed: 1. Early life: educational background and experience with race andpolitics in America. 2. Mismatch Theory: basic observation and empirical evidence; Lawschools and Colleges; Duke and UC data; data access issues. 3. CA Prop 209 and Prop 16. 4. SCOTUS and Harvard / UNC admissions case 5. Intellectual climate on campus, freedom of speech Resources: Faculty web page, includes links to publications:https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/richard-h-sander  A Conversation on the Nature, Effects, and Future of Affirmative Action in Higher Education Admissions (with Peter Arcidiacono, Thomas Espenshade, and Stacy Hawkins), University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law 683 (2015)   https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2625668 Fifteen Questions About Prop. 16 and Prop. 209, University of Chicago Law Review Online (2020)https://lawreviewblog.uchicago.edu/2020/10/30/aa-sander/ Panel at Stanford Intellectual Diversity Conference, April 8, 2016, Stanford Law Schoolhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RZbz-lHwVM--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Shai Carmi is Professor of Statistical and Medical Genetics at Hebrew University (Jerusalem).Carmi Lab: https://scarmilab.org/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi Topics and links:Shai's educational background. From statistical physics and network theory to genomics.Shai's paper on embryo selection: Schizophrenia risk. Modeling synthetic sibling genomes. Variance among sibs vs general population. RRR vs ARR, family history and elevated polygenic risk. (Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.05.370478v3)Response to the ESHG opinion piece on embryo selection. https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi/status/1487694576458481664Pleiotropy, Health Index scores.Genetic genealogy and DNA forensics. Solving cold cases, Othram, etc. (Link to paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aau4832)Healthcare in Israel. Application of PRS in adult patients.Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Jon Y produces Asianometry, which focuses on Asia technology, finance, and history: Podcast, YouTube channel, and Substack.Steve and Jon discuss the global semiconductor industry with an emphasis on U.S.-China technology competition. Topics discussed:Jon's background and his move to Taipei.Key components of the semiconductor ecosystem: fabs, lithography, chip design.US-China tech warTSMC, ASML, HuaweiTaiwan politics: Green and Blue parties, independencePRC invasion / blockade of Taiwan?Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago.He is the author of the recently published Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.ResourcesRichard Hanania on Twitter - https://twitter.com/RichardHananiaCSPI - https://cspicenter.org/Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategyhttps://www.amazon.com/Public-Choice-Theory-Illusion-Strategy-ebook/dp/B09L9Y2W7SThe Great Awokening | Zach Goldberg & Richard Hananiahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UmdveWMURc&ab_channel=CSPIMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve answers questions about recent progress in AI/ML prediction of complex traits from DNA and applications in embryo selection.Highlights:Overview of recent advances in trait predictionWould cost savings from breast cancer early detection pay for genotyping of all women?How does IVF work? Economics of embryo selectionWhole embryo genotyping increases IVF success rates (pregnancy per transfer) significantlyFuture predictionsSome relevant scientific papers:Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidy: New Methods and Higher Pregnancy Rates - https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/preimplantation-genetic-testing-for.html2021 review article on complex trait prediction - https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.05870Accurate Genomic Prediction of Human Height - https://www.genetics.org/content/210/2/477Genomic Prediction of 16 Complex Disease Risks Including Heart Attack, Diabetes, Breast and Prostate Cancer - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-51258-xGenetic architecture of complex traits and disease risk predictors - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68881-8Sibling validation of polygenic risk scores and complex trait prediction - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69927-7Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon.Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.ManifoldOne YouTube channel.

James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex.ResourcesImagine a Future Without Sex: Reproductive technology may lead us to realize too late that being human is better than playing GodJames Lee academic web pageSocial Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC)Nature Genetics: Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individualsMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon.Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.ManifoldOne YouTube channel.

Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.ResourcesTranscriptGood Judgment IncGood Judgment OpenSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionNoriel Roubini (Wikipedia)

Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey’s mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar’s thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve’s). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip to Nigeria gave him insight into the real problems facing real people in oil-rich countries. Leif explains how the legal concept of “efficiency” led to the resource curse and argues that we should refuse to buy oil from countries that are not minimally accountable to their people. Steve notes that some may find this approach too idealistic and not in the US interest. Leif suggests that what philosophers can contribute is the ability to see the big synthetic picture in a complex world.ResourcesTranscriptLeif Wenar (Bio)Blood Oil: Tyrants, Violence, and the Rules That Run the WorldJohn Rawls – Stanford Encyclopedia of PhilosophyPeter Nozick – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

Steve and Corey speak with Dr. Michael Kauffman, co-founder and CEO of Karyopharm Therapeutics, about cancer and biotech innovation. Michael explains how he and Dr. Sharon Schacham tested her idea regarding nuclear-transport using simulation software on a home laptop, and went on to beat 1000:1 odds to create a billion dollar company. They discuss the relationship between high proprietary drug costs and economic incentives for drug discovery. They also discuss the unique US biotech ecosystem, and why innovation is easier in small (vs. large) companies. Michael explains how Karyopharm is targeting its drug at COVID-induced inflammation to treat people with severe forms of the disease.ResourcesTranscriptMichael Kauffman (Bio)Karyopharm’s Publications and PresentationsThe Great American Drug Deal: A New Prescription for Innovative and Affordable Medicines by Peter Kolchinsky

Corey and Steve talk to Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of Loserthink. Steve reviews some of Scott’s predictions, including of Trump’s 2016 victory. Scott (who once semi-humorously described himself as “left of Bernie”) describes what he describes as Trump’s unique “skill stack”. Scott highlights Trump’s grasp of the role of psychology in economics, and maintains that honesty requires admitting that we do not know whether many of Trump’s policies are good or bad. Scott explains why he thinks it is mistaken to assume leaders are irrational.ResourcesTranscriptScott Adams (Blog and Podcast)Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining AmericaKihlstrom J. F. (1997). Hypnosis, memory and amnesia. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 352(1362), 1727–1732. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0155Hypnosis and Memory (Blog Post)

Steve and Corey talk to James Oakes, Distinguished Professor of History and Graduate School Humanities Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, about “The 1619 Project” developed by The New York Times Magazine. The project argues that slavery was the defining event of US history. Jim argues that slavery was actually the least exceptional feature of the US and that what makes the US exceptional is that it is where abolition first begins. Steve wonders about the views of Thomas Jefferson who wrote that “all men are created equal” but still held slaves. Jim maintains many founders were hypocrites, but Jefferson believed what he wrote.Other topics: Northern power, Industrialization, Capitalism, Lincoln, Inequality, Cotton, Labor, Civil War, Racism/Antiracism, Black Ownership.ResourcesTranscriptJames Oakes (Bio)Oakes and Colleagues Letter to the NYT and the Editor’s Response (NYT)The Fight Over the 1619 Project Is Not About the Facts (The Atlantic)The World Socialist Web Site interview with James OakesBenjamin Lay, the first revolutionary abolitionist (Smithsonian Mag)Oakes, J. (2016). Capitalism and Slavery and the Civil War. International Labor and Working-Class HistoryWright, G. (2020), Slavery and Anglo‐American capitalism revisited . The Economic History ReviewJohn J. Clegg, “Capitalism and Slavery,” Critical Historical Studies 2Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2018. “Cotton, slavery, and the new history of capitalism,” Explorations in Economic HistoryFor those interested in exploring Jefferson’s and Lincoln’s views further Professor Oakes recommends the following books:John C. Miller, The Wolf by the Ears: Thomas Jefferson and SlaveryGraham A. Peck, Making an Antislavery Nation: Lincoln, Douglas, and the Battle over Freedom

Steve and Corey talk with Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation about his philosophy of National Developmentalism. They discuss the history of industrial policy and mercantilism in the US and China. Why did the US lose 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the 2000s? How much was due to automation and how much to Chinese competition? Atkinson discusses US R&D and recommends policies that will help the US compete with China.Other topics: Forced technology transfer, IP theft, semiconductors and Micron technologies (DRAM), why the WTO cannot handle misbehavior by China.ResourcesTranscriptRobert Atkinson (Bio)Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Mythology of Small Business (MIT Press, 2018)Innovation Economics: The Race for Global Advantage (Yale, 2012)

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist Raman Sundrum. They discuss the last 30 years in fundamental physics, and look toward the next. Raman argues that Physics is a marketplace of ideas. While many theories did not stand the test of time, they represented avenues that needed to be explored. Corey expresses skepticism about the possibility of answering questions such as why the laws of physics have the form they do. Raman and Steve argue that attempts to answer such questions have led to great advances. Topics: models and experiments, Naturalness, the anthropic principle, dark matter and energy, and imagination.ResourcesTranscriptRaman Sundrum (Faculty Bio)Sabine Hossenfelder on the Crisis in Particle Physics and Against the Next Big Collider – #8

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.ResourcesTranscriptLongTail AlphaLongTail Alpha’s OneTail Hedgehog Fund II had 929% Return (Bloomberg)A New Anomaly Matching Condition? (1993)

Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?RationalityJaan X-Risk LinksLessWrongSlate Star CodexMetaculusAdditional ResourcesTranscriptFermi Paradox — Where Are All The Aliens?Is Hilbert space discrete?

Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable’s sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents’ marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable’s reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.ResourcesTranscriptDan Gable vs Larry Owings – 1970 NCAA Title Match (video)The Champion (1970 documentary on Gable’s senior NCAA season)

Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus’ research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.ResourcesTranscriptKlaus Lackner (Faculty Bio)Center for Negative Carbon Emissions at ASU

Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.ResourcesTranscriptKieren James-LubinVictor Wong

Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter’s experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.ResourcesTranscriptClaude SteeleWhy Campuses are So Tense?Whistling Vivaldi: And Other Clues to How Stereotypes Affect UsIn Struggle: SNCC and the Black Awakening of the 1960s

Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.Topics01:18 – Link between antidepressants, neurogenesis and reducing risk of depression13:54 – Nature of Mouse models23:19 – How you tell whether a mouse exhibits depressive symptoms32:36 – Liz Williams’ serendipitous finding and the issue of biological sex45:47 – A.J.’s research plans for circuit specific gene editing in the mouse brain and a start up’s plan to use it to tackle human cardiovascular disease59:07 – Psychological and Neurological Effects of Ketamine. Testosterone and Deep Brain StimulationResourcesTranscriptRobison Lab at MSU@RobisonLabMSUPapersAndrogen-dependent excitability of mouse ventral hippocampal afferents to nucleus accumbens underlies sex-specific susceptibility to stress.Neurogenesis and The Effect of AntidepressantsIntegrating Interleukin-6 into depression diagnosis and treatmentSub-chronic variable stress induces sex-specific effects on glutamatergic synapses in the nucleus accumbens.Prefrontal cortical circuit for depression- and anxiety-related behaviors mediated by cholecystokinin: role of ΔFosB.Emerging role of viral vectors for circuit-specific gene interrogation and manipulation in rodent brain.

Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often “warm sociopaths”? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.Topics2:33 – Psychopathology and the Dark Triad11:34 – Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people?17:52 – Can too much empathy be a liability?35:16 – Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy50:32 – Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today1:01:06 – Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnosesResourcesTranscriptKaja Perina (Psychology Today)

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.Topics1:22 – What is retrospective voting?5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results56:40 – Reactions to the resultsResourcesTranscriptAdam Dynes (Personal Website)Adam Dynes (Faculty Profile)Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes

Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.Topics2:50 – US-China Relations: Has China advanced through the development of human capital or the theft of intellectual property?16:23 – Academic Culture in China33:00 – Hong Kong Protests: Economic inequality, housing prices, and outside actors.1:04:09 – Coronavirus COVID-19: Has the Coronavirus established a new mode of online education in Hong Kong? Yang makes a forecast about the epidemic’s trajectory.ResourcesTranscriptYang Wang, Dean of Science at HKUSTYang Wang (Faculty Profile)

Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change?ResourcesTranscriptElizabeth Kolbert (The New Yorker)Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate ChangeThe Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural HistoryNew York City Sea WallMiami MitigationJobs and AICarbon Capture

Corey and Steve talk to Meghan Daum about her new book “The Problem With Everything: My Journey Through The New Culture Wars”. Meghan describes how she became aware of the “Red Pill” through what she calls “free speech YouTube” videos. The three ask whether their feeling of alienation from Gen-Z wokeness is just a sign of getting old or reflects principles of free speech and open debate. Megan argues that Gen-Z’s focus on fairness leads to difficult compromises. They discuss social interactions in the pre-internet, early-internet, and woke-internet eras.ResourcesTranscriptAuthor WebsiteMeghan Daum on MediumThe Problem with Everything: My Journey Through the New Culture Wars

Steve and Corey talk with Steven Broglio, Director of the Michigan Concussion Center, about concussion risk, prevention and treatment. Broglio describes how the NCAA emerged from the deaths that almost led Theodore Roosevelt to outlaw college football. He also explains recent findings on CTE, why females may be at greater concussion risk, and why sleep is critical to avoiding long-term brain injury. They discuss how new rules probably make football safer and debate why New England is so down on kids playing football. Steve wonders whether skills are in decline now that some schools have eliminated “contact” in practices.ResourcesTranscriptSteven Broglio (Faculty Profile)Michigan Concussion CenterNeuroTrauma Research LaboratoryNCAA-DoD Grand Alliance: Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education (CARE)

Our guest, Barbara O’Brien, explains why we don’t know much about conviction error outside of murder cases, making error rates for the vast majority of crimes: misdemeanors, sexual assaults, armed robbery, etc. a “dark ocean”. She explains factors that contribute to wrongful convictions including mistaken cross-racial identification in sexual assault cases. Barbara also talks about the surprising frequency of “rain damage” to evidence rooms and why Texas leads the way in both executions and criminal justice reform. The two consider why having your death sentence commuted to life in prison means you are actually less likely to ever to be released.ResourcesTranscriptBarbara O’Brien (Faculty Profile)The National Registry Of Exonerations

This conversation occurred just after President Trump withdrew US forces from Northern Syria. Steve, Corey and Sebastian debate ISIS and the Kurds. Sebastian argues that men who went to war after 9/11 wanted to experience communal masculinity, as their fathers and grandfathers had in Vietnam and WWII, a tradition dating back millennia. When they came home, they faced the isolation of affluent contemporary American society, leading to high rates of addiction, depression, and suicide. War veterans in less developed countries may be psychologically better off, supported by a more traditional social fabric.ResourcesTranscriptSebastian JungerTribe: On Homecoming and Belonging (Book)War (Book)Hell on Earth (Trailer)Restrepo (Trailer)Manifold: David Skrbina on Ted Kaczynski, Technological Slavery, and the Future of Our Species – #7

MSU Psychology Professor Zach Hambrick joins Corey and Steve to discuss general cognitive ability, the science of personnel selection, and research on the development of skills and expertise. Is IQ really the single best predictor of job performance? Corey questions whether g is the best predictor across all fields and whether its utility declines at a certain skill level. What does the experience of the US military tell us about talent selection? Is the 10,000 hour rule for skill development valid? What happened to the guy who tried to make himself into a professional golfer through 10,000 hours of golf practice?ResourcesTranscriptScience of ExpertiseZach Hambrick (Faculty Profile)Armed Services Vocational Aptitude BatteryProject 100,000 (1960s DoD Program)Test Validity Study Report (CLA)The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology

Steve and Corey talk to Andrew about his new introduction to his book “The War for the Soul of America.”  While the left largely won the culture wars, the three wonder whether the pendulum has swung so far left that many liberals are alienated by today’s cultural norms.Other topics: Was the left’s victory in the debate over the college curriculum pyrrhic? Is identity politics a necessary step in liberation or a problematic slide toward greater division or both? Are current students too sensitive, and easily triggered, to take the fight to the Billionaire class? ResourcesTranscriptAndrew Hartman (Faculty Profile)A War for the Soul of America: A History of the Culture Wars[BONUS] – Left and Right at MSU – #27.5

Originally from Portugal, Bruno Maçães earned a PhD in Political Science at Harvard under Harvey Mansfield, and served as Portugal’s Secretary of State for European Affairs from 2013-2015. He is regarded as a leading geopolitical thinker with deep insights concerning the future of Eurasia and relations between the West and China. He is the author of two widely acclaimed books published in 2018: The Dawn of Eurasia and Belt and Road.Topics discussed include: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle Income Trap, A Chinese World Order, Techno-Optimism in East and West, China-Russia alliance and geopolitics, the future of Eurasia and the EU.ResourcesTranscriptRussia to China: Together we can rule the World (Politico.eu)Equilibrium Americanum (Berlin Policy Journal)The Dawn of Eurasia: On the Trail of the New World OrderBelt and Road: A Chinese World OrderHistory Has Begun: The Birth of a New America

Steve and Corey talk to Ted about his article for the August issue of Harper’s Magazine, “The Last Frontier”. Ted describes how Trump’s election led him to seek out his new project on people living off the grid in Colorado’s San Luis Valley (“Appalachia without the Trees”). The three discuss how immigration has changed since he wrote Coyotes in 1987. Ted explains how working as a prison guard in Sing Sing led to the uncomfortable realization that he was getting comfortable with unnecessary violence and offers advice to young people seeking to write interesting stories in the new media landscape.ResourcesTranscriptTed ConoverThe Last Frontier: Homesteaders on the margins of AmericaCoyotes: A Journey Through the Secret World of America’s Illegal AliensNewjack: Guarding Sing SingRolling Nowhere: Riding the Rails with America’s Hoboes

Steve and Corey talk to Jason about a fundamental question of neuroscience: Do humans grow new neurons as adults? The dogma that humans do not, gave way to the dogma that they do, which is now being questioned. Adult neurogenesis has been associated with learning, better cognitive function and resistance to depression. Jason suggests that a simple error of treating young mice as models for adult humans led to excessive optimism regarding the potential for later neuronal growth. Recent findings suggest that adults grow few, if any, new neurons but that what little neurogenesis occurs can probably be enhanced by exercise.ResourcesTranscriptThe Synder LabWarren Sturgis McCulloch Interview (1969)

Steve and Corey talk to Tim Searchinger about the unintended consequences of biofuels policies. Searchinger argues that these policies do not consider the opportunity costs of using plants for fuel rather than food. Combined with crazy carbon accounting principles, existing rules make cutting down trees in the US, shipping them to Europe and burning them in power plants count as carbon neutral under the Kyoto protocol. The three also discuss how eating less beef in the developed world along with educating women, family planning, and reducing child mortality in the developing world can decrease stress on land use and emissions.ResourcesTranscriptCreating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050Timothy Searchinger

Jamie Metzl joins Corey and Steve to discuss his new book, Hacking Darwin. They discuss detailed predictions for the progress in genomic technology, particularly in human reproduction, over the coming decade: genetic screening of embryos will become commonplace, gene-editing may become practical and more widely accepted, stem cell technology may allow creation of unlimited numbers of eggs and embryos. Metzl is a Technology Futurist, Geopolitics Expert, and Sci-Fi Novelist. He was appointed to the World Health Organization expert advisory committee governance and oversight of human genome editing. Jamie previously served in the U.S. National Security Council, State Department, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a Human Rights Officer for the United Nations in Cambodia. He holds a Ph.D. in Southeast Asian history from Oxford University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School.ResourcesTranscriptHacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of HumanityJamie Metzl’s Personal Website

Polymath and economist Tyler Cowen (Holbert L. Harris Professor at GMU) joins Steve and Corey for a wide-ranging discussion. Are books just for advertising? Have blogs peaked? Are podcasts the future or just a bubble? Is technological change slowing? Is there less political correctness in China than the US? Tyler’s new book, an apologia for big business, inspires a discussion of CEO pay and changing public attitudes toward socialism. They investigate connections between populism, stagnant wage growth, income inequality and immigration. Finally, they discuss the future global order and trajectories of the US, EU, China, and Russia.ResourcesTranscriptPersonal WebsiteMarginal Revolution [Blog]Conversations with Tyler [Podcast]Tyler Cowen | Bloomberg Opinion ColumnistBig Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero

Steve and Corey talk to Betsy McKay, senior writer on U.S. and global public health at The Wall Street Journal, about her recent articles on heart disease. Betsy describes how background reporting led to her article linking the recent drop in life expectancy in the United States, often attributed to the opioid crisis or increases in middle age suicides due to economic despair, to the increasing prevalence of heart disease, driven by the rise in obesity. The three also discuss current public health recommendations on how to reduce heart disease risk and on the use of calcium scans to assess arterial plaque buildup. Steve describes boutique medical programs available to the super-rich that include full body scans to search for early signs of disease. Betsy elaborates on how she approached reporting on a new study linking egg consumption to higher cholesterol and increased risk of death, a result at odds with other recent findings and national recommendations that two eggs a day eggs is safe and healthy. Finally, they consider whether people are wasting money on buying fish oil supplements.ResourcesTranscriptDeath Rates Rising for Young, Middle-Aged U.S. AdultsHow to Reduce Your Risk of Heart DiseaseNew BP guidelines that set elevated BP as above 120mmHG/80 and Stage 1 hypertension is 120-130/80-90, Stage 2 140/90 or above.New ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guidelines Lower Definition of HypertensionHeart Attack at 49—America’s Biggest Killer Makes a Deadly ComebackStudy Links Eggs to Higher Cholesterol and Risk of Heart DiseaseFish Oil: Hunting for Evidence to Tip the ScalesDon’t Use Bootleg or Street Vaping Products, C.D.C. Warns

Steve and Corey speak with Ted Chiang about his recent story collection “Exhalation” and his inaugural essay for the New York Times series, Op-Eds from the Future. Chiang has won Nebula and Hugo awards for his widely influential science fiction writing. His short story “Story of Your Life,” was the basis of the film Arrival (2016). Their discussion explores the scientific and philosophical ideas in Ted’s work, including whether free will is possible, and implications of AI, neuroscience, and time travel. Ted explains why his skepticism about whether the US is truly a meritocracy leads him to believe that the government-funded genetic modification he envisages in his Op-Ed would not solve the problem of inequality.ResourcesExhalation by Ted ChiangStories of Your Life and Others by Ted ChiangTed Chiang’s New York Times Op-Ed From the FutureTranscript

Dr. Rebecca Campbell is a Professor of Psychology at Michigan State University, whose research focuses on violence against women and children with an emphasis on sexual assault. Steve and Corey discuss her recent National Institute of Justice-funded project to study Detroit’s untested rape kits. Dr. Campbell describes the problem of untested kits and her work with police departments around the country to reduce the backlog. She explains how the use of the national CODIS database has led to sharply higher estimates of the proportion of rapes committed by serial perpetrators and how many rapists appear to be criminal “generalists”, committing a wide range of offenses. She describes the dynamics of sexual assault investigations, the factors that lead police to put more effort into investigating certain cases over others, and how common ways of questioning women can lead them to disengage from the process. Other topics include the incentives at work in law enforcement, the slow pace at which new research in DNA testing and treatment of victims is incorporated into police training, and Dr. Campbell’s efforts to engage with law enforcement agencies to improve investigative practices.RESOURCESPapersThe National Problem of Untested Sexual Assault Kits (SAKs): Scope, Causes, and Future Directions for Research, Policy, and Practice.Forgotten evidence: A mixed methods study of why sexual assault kits (SAKs) are not submitted for DNA forensic testing.Why Police “Couldn’t or Wouldn’t” Submit Sexual Assault Kits for Forensic DNA Testing: A Focal Concerns Theory Analysis of Untested Rape KitsTested at Last: How DNA Evidence in Untested Rape Kits Can Identify Offenders and Serial Sexual Assaults.Comparing Standard and Selective Degradation DNA Extraction Methods: Results from a Field Experiment with Sexual Assault KitsEvaluation of a Victim-Centered, Trauma-Informed Victim Notification Protocol for Untested Sexual Assault Kits (SAKs)Do You Wish to Prosecute the Person Who Assaulted You?: Untested Sexual Assault Kits and Victim Notification of Rape Survivors Assaulted as AdolescentsWill history repeat itself? Growth mixture modeling of suspected serial sexual offending using forensic DNA evidenceOtherWhy Don’t Police Catch Serial Rapists? – The AtlanticMSU Appoints Presidential Advisers on Sexual Misconduct IssuesTranscript

Steve and Corey talk with Mark Moffett, Photographer and Research Fellow at the Smithsonian Institute, about his new book The Human Swarm: How our Societies Arise, Thrive and Fall. They discuss Mark’s view that being able walk into a cafe filled with others and not be attacked illustrates what makes human societies distinct and so successful. Mark explains why he is far more interested in questions about when war and other events occur than with traditional issues such as the genetic origins of human behavior. The three discuss Dehumanization and its Chimp equivalent, Dechimpanizeeization, and how they lead to the division of societies, friend turning against friend, and genocide. They discuss the conditions under which foreigners are embraced and whether the US might ever enter into a post-racial society where group differences don’t matter and immigrants are more easily accepted.ResourcesMark Moffett’s BioMark Moffett’s PhotographyThe Human Swarm: How Our Societies Arise, Thrive, and FallTranscript

John Schulman is a research scientist at OpenAI. He co-leads the Reinforcement Learning group and works on agent learning in virtual game worlds (e.g., Dota) as well as in robotics. John, Corey, and Steve talk about AI, AGI (Artifical General Intelligence), the Singularity (self-reinforcing advances in AI which lead to runaway behavior that is incomprehensible to humans), and the creation and goals of OpenAI. They discuss recent advances in language models (GPT-2) and whether these results raise doubts about the usefulness of linguistic research over the past 60 years. Does GPT-2 imply that neural networks trained using large amounts of human-generated text can encode “common sense” knowledge about the world? They also discuss what humans are better at than current AI systems, and near term examples of what is already feasible: for example, using AI drones to kill people.ResourcesJohn SchulmanOpenAIBetter Language Models and Their Implications (GPT-2)Transcript

Daniel Max, staff writer at The New Yorker and author of Every Love Story is A Ghost Story, a biography of David Foster Wallace, speaks with Corey and Steve about his first book, The Family that Couldn’t Sleep. The discussion covers the emerging genre of literary non-fiction, Daniel’s process of writing The Family that Couldn’t Sleep, and how he approached and gained the trust of the family at the heart of the story. Corey probes Daniel about how he handled the complex scientific characters, Carl Gajdusek and Stanley Prusiner, who led research into prion disease for 40 years. Daniel recounts how Shirley Glasse (now Lindenbaum) discovered how prions were transmitted through ritual cannibalism in Papua New, a critical step in solving the mystery of what causes of the disease, but how credit was given to Gajdusek. The three discuss the painfully slow pace of research and the inspiring story of a young couple, Eric Minikel and Sonia Vallabh, who have changed careers to dedicate their lives to finding a cure.ResourcesMax’s New Yorker PageMax’s initial 2001 article for the New York Times Magazine on the Italian Family with FFIMax’s 2013 New Yorker story on Minikel and VallabhThe Family that Couldn’t SleepEvery Love Story is A Ghost StoryTranscript

Steve and Corey speak with Stuart Firestein (Professor of Neuroscience at Columbia University, specializing in the olfactory system) about his two books Ignorance: How It Drives Science and Failure: Why Science Is So Successful. Stuart explains why he thinks that it is a mistake to believe that scientists make discoveries by following the “scientific method” and what he sees as the real relationship between science and art. We discuss Stuart’s recent research showing that current models of olfactory processing are wrong, while Steve delves into the puzzling infinities in calculations that led to the development of quantum electrodynamics. Stuart also makes the case that the theory of intelligent design is more intelligent than most scientists give it credit for and that it would be wise to teach it in science classes.ResourcesStuart FiresteinFailure: Why Science Is so SuccessfulIgnorance: How it drives scienceTranscript

Corey and Steve continue their discussion with Joe Cesario and examine methodological biases in the design and conduct of experiments in social psychology and ideological bias in the interpretation of the findings. Joe argues that experiments in his field are designed to be simple but that in making experimental set ups simple researchers remove critical factors that actually matter for a police officer to make a decision in the real world. In consequence, he argues that the results cannot be taken to show anything about actual police behavior. Joe maintains that social psychology as a whole is biased toward the left politically and that this affects how courses are taught and research conducted. Steve points out the university faculty on the whole tend to be shifted left relative to the general population. Joe, Corey, and Steve discuss the current ideological situation on campus and how it can be alienating for students from conservative backgrounds.ResourcesJoseph Cesario’s LabA new look at racial disparities in police use of deadly forceTranscript

James Cham is a partner at Bloomberg Beta, a venture capital firm focused on the future of work. James invests in companies applying machine intelligence to businesses and society. Prior to Bloomberg Beta, James was a Principal at Trinity Ventures and a VP at Bessemer Venture Partners. He was educated in computer science at Harvard and at the MIT Sloan School of Business.ResourcesJames ChamBloomberg BetaTranscript

Corey and Steve talk with Joe Cesario about his recent work showing that, contrary to many activist claims and media reports, there is no widespread racial bias in police shootings. Joe discusses his analysis of national criminal justice data and his experimental studies with police officers in a specially designed realistic simulator. He maintains that evidence suggests that racial bias does exist in other uses force of force such as tasering but that the decision to shoot is fundamentally different and driven by facts about criminal context in which officers find themselves rather than race.ResourcesExample of officer completing shooting simulatorA new look at racial disparities in police use of deadly forceIs There Evidence of Racial Disparity in Police Use of Deadly Force? Analyses of Officer-Involved Fatal Shootings in 2015–2016Overview of Current Research on Officer-Involved ShootingsJoseph Cesario’s LabTranscript

Ron Unz is the publisher of the Unz Review, a controversial, but widely read, alternative media site hosting opinion outside of the mainstream, including from both the far right and the far left. Unz studied theoretical physics at Harvard, Cambridge and Stanford. He founded the software company Wall Street Analytics, acquired by Moody’s in 2006, and was behind the 1998 ballot initiative that ended bilingual education in California.ResourcesThe Unz ReviewThe Myth of American Meritocracy – How corrupt are Ivy League admissions?The Myth of American Meritocracy and Other EssaysTranscript

Corey and Steve speak with Samuel Kerstein, Professor of Philosophy and expert in Medical Ethics at the University of Maryland. They discuss the ethics of genome engineering and preimplantation embryo selection, and the inequality and narrowing of human diversity that might result from widespread adoption of these technologies. Among the topics covered: Why genome engineering at this time is immoral. Should we always pick the healthiest embryo? In the future will parents have a moral obligation to engineer their children? Will there be an arms race between countries to engineer their populations? Is Star Trek’s Khan a more advanced person (Steve) or just another smart psychopath (Sam) or both?ResourcesSamuel J. KersteinHow to Treat Persons by Samuel J. KersteinCRISPR Babies – Episode #1Transcript

Hossenfelder is a Research Associate at the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies. Her research areas include particle physics and quantum gravity. She discusses the current state of theoretical physics, and her recent book Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray.ResourcesThe Uncertain Future of Particle Physics (New York Times Article)Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray (Book)Transcript

David Skrbina is a philosopher at the University of Michigan. He and Ted Kaczynski published the book Technological Slavery, which elaborates on the Unabomber manifesto and contains about 100 pages of correspondence between the two which took place over almost a decade. Skrbina discusses his and Kaczynski’s views on deep problems of technological society, and whether violent opposition to it is justified.ResourcesDavid Skrbina’s Featured PublicationsPhotos of Ted KacynskiDavid Skrbina, Pen Pal of the Unabomber, on Ted Kaczynski’s PhilosophyTribe by Sebastian JungerJoe Rogan Experience #975 – Sebastian JungerTranscript

Hawks is the Vilas-Borghesi Distinguished Achievement Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He is an anthropologist and studies the bones and genes of ancient humans. He’s worked on almost every part of our evolutionary story, from the very origin of our lineage among the apes, to the last 10,000 years of our history.ResourcesJohn Hawks WeblogGhosts and Hybrids: How ancient DNA and new fossils are changing human origins (Research Presentation)Transcript

Kaiser Kuo is a host and co-founder of Sinica, a current affairs podcast originally based in Beijing. Sinica guests include prominent journalists, academics, and policy makers who participate in uncensored discussions about Chinese political, economic, and cultural affairs.ResourcesSinica PodcastPersonal Ties, Meritocracy, and China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign“MMG | Kaiser Kuo” by Meet the media Guru is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0Transcript

Corey and Steve speak with Ted Shultz, research Entomologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. Ted is an expert in Leaf Cutter Ant evolution and systematics. Topics discussed include evolution, systematics, the genetic basis of behavior,  E. O. Wilson and small revolutions in science.ResourcesTed SchultzScience Magazine Table of Contents – December 9, 1994As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods (Seymour Benzer)The City Under the Back StepsTranscript

Corey and Steve interview Noor Siddiqui, a student at Stanford studying AI, Machine Learning, and Genomics. She was previously a Thiel Fellow, and founded a medical collaboration technology startup after high school. The conversation covers topics like college admissions, Tiger parenting, Millennials, Stanford, Silicon Valley startup culture, innovation in the US healthcare industry, and Simplicity and Genius.ResourcesNoor SiddiquiThiel FellowsTranscript

Corey and Steve are joined by Bobby Kausthuri, a Neuroscientist at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago. Bobby specializes in nanoscale mapping of brains using automated fine slicing followed by electron microscopy. Among the topics covered: Brain mapping, the nature of scientific progress (philosophy of science), Biology vs Physics, Is the brain too complex to be understood by our brains? AlphaGo, the Turing Test, and wiring diagrams, Are scientists underpaid? The future of Neuroscience.▶️ WATCH: Bobby Kausthuri & Brain Mapping — Episode #2ResourcesBobby Kasthuri BioThe Physicist and the Neuroscientist: A Tale of Two ConnectomesComputing Machinery and Intelligence by Alan M. TuringTranscript

Corey and Steve discuss news of gene edited babies in China, and the future of human genetic engineering.▶️ Watch: CRISPR Babies — Episode #1ResourcesGeneration CRISPR?He did it: He Jiankui talk at HKU conference on gene editingEconomist Radio podcast interview on Genomic PredictionTranscript

Corey and Steve, friends for almost 30 years, introduce each other to the audience.Caltech Traditions and Prankshttp://www.admissions.caltech.edu/exp...Steve’s blog, Information Processing http://infoproc.blogspot.comman·i·fold  /ˈmanəˌfōld/   many and various.In mathematics, a manifold is a topological space that locallyresembles Euclidean space near each point.