Panama has taken control of the port facilities previously run by a Chinese company after the courts ruled the original contracts were secured through bribes. This move reaffirms U.S.–Panama relations, as a U.S. ally is now operating the ports.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3P7ck3B

The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to avoid striking specific Russian energy infrastructure. As you could imagine, this all has to do with American economic interests.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4aHoV6c

I hate to say it, but we still haven't located the fountain of youth. Unfortunately, that means there's no current medical breakthrough that will meaningfully reverse the global demographic problem.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qQOcPZ

The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3ZLIYKv

Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MCfFqM

Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4aOeVH6

Drones now account for the majority of casualties in the Ukraine War. One of the innovations that has allowed Russia to improve strike range is by mounting Starlink terminals to drones.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4kLNxhC

Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/46MOb8z

Since the U.S. shut down Venezuelan oil exports, Cuba has been sliding towards a severe energy crisis. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4kG7MNG

The Canadians built and financed a new bridge connecting Detroit and Ontario, but now Trump wants his 50%.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Zzf1gs

India's navy has begun seizing shadow fleet tankers in its exclusive economic zone. If India continues down this path, other countries will likely join the bandwagon, marking the end of the shadow fleet.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

The U.S. is turning to the Aussies for some help with stationing four American submarines at Stirling in a hedge against potential future conflicts with China.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MknGjZ

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party just won a two-thirds majority in the lower house. This gives Prime Minister Takaichi a rare personal mandate and practically total control of the government for the next few years.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3O0pf7c

Japan has a...special way of measuring deficits, leaving true borrowing understated by excluding major obligations like pensions and local government debt, and counting planned bond issuance as income. But Japan isn't the only country facing debt issues.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/46FFeOd

The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4rALnTR

The last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement has expired, which means for the first time in decades, we're in a world with no active nuclear arms control.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4aeIJfH

The EU struggles to take any decisive action on foreign and security policy because it has to wait for all 29 member states to agree. Whereas the US can make and enforce security decisions at the drop of a hat.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4bCclWO

Venezuela has been dragged through the mud thanks to Chávez and Maduro, but it might be seeing its first genuinely positive development in decades.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Zg90Fh

First order of business: No, this isn't financial advice. Second order of business: taking a loan out in Yuan to profit from a Chinese collapse is a very bad idea.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49WMsQ4

Is India overhyped or genuinely important moving forward? Well, you could make a case for both.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4a3K4Y1

Let's talk about the current state of electronic warfare in the Ukraine War and how Iran is fitting into all this.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Z7bTIt

The EU and India have struck a trade deal, but it’s not the breakthrough it's being made out to be. Just because you sign a trade deal doesn't mean that integration magically appears.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/45FjmCm

Xi Jinping has removed yet another senior official from China's Central Military Commission (CMC). After 14 years of eliminating officials, prioritizing loyalty over competence, China's institutions are hollow.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

France has seized a shadow fleet tanker suspected of carrying sanctioned oil under a false flag and has taken it to Marseille. Should this ship be formally impounded, the entirety of the shadow fleet would fall.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4q1N5fQ

We haven't seen any real negotiations over the past year because the Trade Representative's office wasn't staffed. All that's been discussed are tariff levels, not full agreements, and nothing has been ratified. However, the Mother Country is the main exception to this lack of trade talks.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/46ewiz4

The Americans and Kiwis are the last of the developed countries still holding onto growing populations. France is the most recent victim to have fallen into demographic decline, so let's see what the future has in store.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4kazl19

Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, recently visited Beijing. This trip sparked rumors that Canada was ditching the US and buddying up with China instead.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49MDVhg

Trump’s pledge to roll back regulations isn’t inherently bad, but the way he’s going about it is problematic in just about every way.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49MDVhg

A poorly designed and destined to backfire tariff has just been announced; this time, the Trump administration has turned its focus to high-end semiconductors.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4b7HKA4

Japan has been dealing with long-term population decline for decades, and the latest report on births per woman dropping to 1.15 confirms that. However, there are some lessons we could all learn from Japan.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3LNkAEC

Sure, the US could probably overthrow just about any Latin American government with ease, but what happens after that?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pJxG3Y

Just because the US intervened in Venezuela doesn't mean that America will be abandoning its global military posture.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3LCDa2m

Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, I've had a ton of theories and ideas flood in. So, it looks like it's time for a good old-fashioned squirrel killin'.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49nAK0M

Taking Greenland is worse than pointless both economically and strategically. As importantly, Denmark is arguably America's most earnest ally, and for decades has given the United States anything it has asked for.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qjIw1J

Colombia looked like it was in the hot seat following Maduro's capture, but tensions seemed to have eased following a call between Trump and President Gustavo Petro.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qQRuDc

There's been speculation that a deal could have been struck between the US and a power like Russia or China that allowed the US to move on Venezuela. Let's put that one to rest.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3LC3Ujq

Venezuela's pseudo-newish-kinda leader, Delcy Rodríguez, just offered President Trump 30-50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. Let's just call a spade a spade, because this is an overt political bribe.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Lwn8a2

With renewed American activism in the Western Hemisphere, Venezuela has become just the first to get some "extra attention." So what countries could be next on the list as the US reasserts regional dominance?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3LlsJ36

Russia is rapidly depleting its stock of prewar vehicles and losing soldiers faster than population growth can replace them, thrusting it closer and closer to military exhaustion.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3YTUy5E

Canada sharply restricted immigration and scored itself a 0.2% population decline. This flips the script on a long-running strategy of lax immigration to offset low birth rates and prevent pension/workforce collapse.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4snNLyI

"Death to the dictator" chants have broken out during the protests in Iran, indicative of the broader economic and political strain throughout the country.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pkol2g

Venezuela only has one realistic path forward: Oil. That doesn't mean it's a sure thing, though. So, let's lay it all out.Full 12 minute analysis available exclusively on Patreon ➡️ https://bit.ly/3Ny2ln9

Recent data out of Washington shows the US economy is growing faster than expected, but let's lift the hood on these numbers.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4aJbx1T

Trying to figure out what foreign policy will look like after Trump is a fool's errand. With no strategic consensus or institutional planning capacity, the US is stuck in a car without brakes, a driver, or a steering wheel.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3YNSThX

If China was able to curb population growth with the One-Child Policy, can a Three-Child Policy help solve the current Chinese demographic crisis?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49BPg3V

Following the recent attacks on US troops in Syria, the question of the day is: Why does the US continue to maintain a presence there?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/44Kkfcj

Japan is restarting the world's largest nuclear power plant, after a 15-year shutdown following the Fukushima disaster.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MWOrL5

Global oil markets are nearing a massive shock as the shadow fleet edges towards collapse.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pMHcnD

US labor data shows a slowdown in job growth, but given the recent changes to the Department of Labor, who knows if we can trust it. Regardless, labor patterns are definitely looking off...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qgWvES

Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed a Russian Kilo-class submarine while in the port of Novorossiysk using a subsea drone.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MJ2gNg

The first domino of regime change in Venezuela has been toppled, as the Trump administration has imposed a naval blockade on the main oil export ports.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/48WIODZ

Ukraine and Russia peace talks are proceeding furiously, but going nowhere, mostly because the Trump administration is trying to make this a rush job and has neglected all the important details.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4p3bS2R

We've got two major developments in Eurasia. We're talking about Ukraine disabling two ships in the Caspian Sea and Poland getting EU approval to build a nuclear power plant.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/45byYNo

Mexico is hoofing a 50% tariff onto imports from countries without a free-trade agreement, giving the US a strong leg up out of the gate while competitors like China and Korea get left circling the track.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4ajhwtU

Continuing our discussion on the US tech sector, let's break down how demographics and rising capital costs are stifling innovation. The tech boom relied upon a few things: a young, highly-skilled workforce concentrated in hubs like Silicon Valley and cheap and abundant capital. I don't know if you've noticed, but the US doesn't have the young workers or the capital environment to fund long-term tech development. Combine that with what we discussed yesterday, and you get a tech sector that is going to struggle in the years and decades to come.You're getting access to this podcast at the same time it's released on Patreon. For early access to all the videos and more, join Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

We're doing a two-part series on the tech sector. Today, we'll be looking at the disruption caused by deglobalization and Trump's policies.The gadgets and gizmos that fill our homes rely on highly complex supply chains, with most of that work happening in Asian countries. Any disruption to these interconnected networks could send devastating ripple effects down the line. US Tariffs on Asian imports discourage US participation in supply chains and incentivize companies to move production entirely outside of the US.As tech manufacturing floods out of the US and we continue down this path of deglobalization, the future of American tech production looks worse and worse. Tomorrow, we'll tack on the issues of demographics and rising capital costs.You're getting access to this podcast at the same time it's released on Patreon. For early access to all the videos and more, join Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

With how important semiconductors are for the future, can the US use the high-purity silicon quartz mine in North Carolina as leverage for negotiations?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4aiq988

Should the war in Ukraine result in a Russian loss, what will the future hold for Russia?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pwZt8b

The newly released national security document from the White House is more of a culture-war manifesto than a strategic guide for US foreign policy.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3KTsX12

Let's discuss what China's potential invasion of Taiwan would look like. Should China attack, both Biden and Trump have been explicit that the US would intervene economically and militarily.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3KQthh1

The Russians had an oopsie with the launch pad at their main heavy-lift launch site following the launch of their Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft heading for the ISS. The unintended destruction of this launch pad cripples Russia's space capabilities.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4iHrUOa

2025 has been full of surprises. And honestly, given today's headline, I wouldn't be surprised if pigs started flying next. We now have Israel defending Germany.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pLGfvm

While we Americans were carving up our turkeys last week, the Canadians had a political breakthrough. The Prime Minister and the Alberta Premier made a compromise to advance a new pipeline route for Alberta's heavy crude.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4rExllc

When the US starts publicly admitting to war crimes, we ought to pay attention. So, let's look at what's going on with Venezuela.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4rzk7pR

Ukraine expanded its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to include facilities tied to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), as well as the shadow fleet of tankers that Russia uses to bypass Western sanctions.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/48vCOC3

If I were tasked with finding a location for a US-based semiconductor fabrication facility, where would I put it?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/48eYy6g

I know the tariff policies coming from the Trump administration are giving everyone whiplash, but that's not the cause of the impending global depression...the tariffs are just accelerating the timeline.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter:https://bit.ly/3XsWMZc

Space debris recently struck China's Tiangong space station. Given the congested nature of the ~350km altitude band, this collision is a warning of what might come to low Earth orbit (LEO).Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4435jWp

The US and South Korea have struck a deal for the US to help build nuclear-powered submarines for the Koreans. The US has kept this technology close to the chest for a long time, with the access list now a whopping two countries long: Australia and South Korea.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/484AVgO

Both the Ukrainians and the Russians will hate this plan.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Ma1ZCB

Last chance to access our biggest discount of the year! Join Peter Zeihan's Patreon and get 50% off your first month with code PZ50.Cyber Monday Sale: https://bit.ly/PZBFSale*Sale ends at 11:59PM ETDoubling the US industrial capacity requires 50% more electricity...already a high barrier to entry. If we want to throw in some new data centers, add another 25-50% on top of that. No small feat.Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/48198Ob

Ready to level up your geopolitical insight? Join Peter Zeihan's Patreon and get 50% off your first month with code PZ50.Black Friday Sale: https://bit.ly/PZBFSaleThe world we've known and loved is going away, which means the US will have to pull itself up by its bootstraps and get to work...because there is a massive defense buildout and reindustrialization looming on the horizon.Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4ikb6MX

Ready to level up your geopolitical insight? Join Peter Zeihan's Patreon and get 50% off your first month with code PZ50.Black Friday Sale: https://bit.ly/PZBFSaleThe US shale revolution has altered the trajectory of the US energy sector, but can that success story be replicated anywhere else?Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4ijvhdS

Ready to level up your geopolitical insight? Join Peter Zeihan's Patreon and get 50% off your first month with code PZ50. Black Friday Sale: https://bit.ly/PZBFSaleDespite New Mexico's hot air balloon festival and dramatic landscapes, there's not much else going for the state. They rank low on economic and social indicators, they have an arid climate, they're navigating complex racial and tribal dynamics...needless to say, they could use a win.Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3MlGBu7

Some officials over in Ukraine have been stuffing their pockets with $100 million stolen from the energy sector. Before you get worried that someone has been dipping into the US or EU aid...this dates back long before all that started flowing in.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3X7C15a

Let's talk about the Sichuan. And no, we're not ordering take-out. We're talking about China's newest Type 076 amphibious assault ship, somewhat similar in size to the US Wasp-class.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4i8G0bh

Yet another innovation has come from the Ukraine War. We're talking drone-on-drone warfare. Codename: Octopus.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4nXW8gV

Massive population shocks are nothing new; just look at the Mongol invasions or the Black Death. But is the demographic collapse of today comparable to those historic cases?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pjcFgH

We're entering an era where restructuring global manufacturing will be non-negotiable. As supply chains collapse and tariffs complicate this process, can technology like 3D printing take some of the pressure off?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49SbbFq

The AI race has been all the rage, but what if we were racing ourselves straight into regression?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hYjNMV

ExxonMobil has introduced a new type of proppant that might just spark the next US shale revolution.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4i2oaXs

The Trump administration's sanctions on Russia's energy sector are proving to be more substantive than the other policies we've seen.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4nR3DGv

For a country that doesn't get much attention, Myanmar matters much more than most realize. While caught in a civil war for decades, Myanmar has a whole lot going for it.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3JrrLl1

We've discussed how essential semiconductors are in our increasingly technological world, so here's an update on ASML’s new High-NA EUV lithography machines.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3WHTHUB

The strategies implemented by Russia and Ukraine are shifting once again. Let's discuss!Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/43ekKKV

Staging a meaningful protest requires several things, and a large young population is one of the key components. So, what happens when there aren't enough young people left?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47FYgnt

President Trump has wrapped up a whirlwind trip to Asia; he met with several key regional leaders...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/43Q87FY

It appears that US military strikes against the Venezuelan government are imminent. Let's take a look at what passes for a military in Venezuela.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4nMXOdi

I’m thrilled to share that my first novel, and fifth book overall, is officially in the works! Acceptable Range is coming in early 2027, and you can join the interest list below now! Join the list here: https://bit.ly/AcceptableRangeFrom Peter Zeihan, New York Times bestselling author of The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, comes his first work of fiction: a high-stakes geopolitical thriller that spans continents and tests the limits of power, trust, technology, and national survival. A striking fusion of real-world insight and pulse-pounding suspense, Acceptable Range is a global-systems thriller — part autopsy, part countdown — propelled by the momentum of a civilization in collapse. It examines the machinery of the modern world and how a system built for perfection forgets how to survive error. Even before someone…gives things a push. In an age defined by feedback loops and vanishing margins, the question is no longer whether collapse can be stopped — only whether it can be contained within an acceptable range. Acceptable Range is the first installment of a trilogy, forthcoming from BenBella Books in early 2027.

The Fed just cut interest rates by 0.25%. Instead of the desired boost to a slowing US economy, we ended up with a market drop.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hzmS5K

The world as we know it is going away. The large, interconnected systems that span the globe are breaking down, so those smaller, regional blocs are growing in importance. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47wOeFb

We've all heard the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," but I'm not sure if that applies to South Korea and Japan forming an alliance against China.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hAUAYP

To be thorough in our discussion of China's demographic collapse, we must explore as many potential solutions as possible...even if one of those is a UAE-style model of imported workers (aka slavery).Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4oEtJ06

We've kicked, flogged, and beaten the snot out of China's demographic horse, but what other countries are facing a similar demographic decline?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/49tfyXo

Bolivia is in the midst of a political reshuffling that could alter its minerals future. For decades, Bolivia's socialist government has kept the country poor and starved of foreign investment.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hy7xTb

The Trump administration is sending the USS Ford, America’s most powerful supercarrier, to the waters off Venezuela...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47tc44J

After months of being played by the Russians, it seems US President Donald Trump has had enough. On 23 October the United States fully sanctioned Russia's largest oil firms.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3WYZmWj

The recent deadly clashes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have less to do with current events, and more to do with the fractured ethnic and political foundations of the countries. So, let's look at the mounting instability threatening Pakistan's internal cohesion.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3J58g1u

Trump just cut off military and economic aid to Columbia, because of...you guessed it...a political clash with President Petro. Bonus points if you guessed that this move would have some adverse effects, like reviving the Colombian cocaine trade.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47vz7vA

The US just committed roughly $20 billion in a currency-swap with Argentina. That's a whole lot of pesos. So, why did the US extend this lifeline, and will it save Argentina from itself?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/43IFGd4

Let's first establish that Qatar is not building a new base in the US. They are funding an expansion of an existing US facility used to train F-15 pilots. And second, Qatar isn't interested in those Idaho potatoes, they're looking for something a bit more nuanced.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qmrQXE

The Trump administration's campaign against alleged Venezuelan drug smuggling is raising some eyebrows. Let's unpack the War Powers Act and how it applies to this.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3LlgWkI

There has been plenty of public frustration over Trump's policies and actions, but that doesn't necessarily translate to political momentum.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4neSMWC

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the US has been trying to figure out the appropriate level of involvement. Tomahawk Missiles would be quite the game-changer for this cyclical conversation.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4ol8C2C

US military intervention in Venezuela keeps getting floated around, but I'm not sure people fully comprehend how UGLY this would be.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3WEp0Q1

It looks like the peace deal between Israel, Gaza, Hamas, and other Arab States is holding (so far). The fighting has stopped, refugees are returning, and Trump deserves all the praise he's getting right now.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4nMyGE3

It's Friday evening, the office is packing up for the weekend, and the boss decides it's the perfect time to announce something big. So, I hope you enjoyed your weekend of mulling over the idea of what a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports would look like.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4n7L0xN

While the Russians are busy throwing everything they can at Ukraine, could China make a move to seize Siberia?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3IRFG3u

Anytime we have a sitting US president that has exceeded the average lifespan, it’s a warranted endeavor to explore what happens after...they bite the dust. So, how would President Vance hold up?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3IWhCfC

The US needs to massively expand its ability to generate electricity. A possible solution? Mixed-oxide nuclear fuel.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3KGvCL6

Next up on Trump's chopping block, we have US agriculture. Staring down a broad list of restrictive tariffs, US agriculture is entering a crisis of its own.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/46V2Xt4

President Trump might finally be throwing the Ukrainians a bone, as the US may begin providing the precision targeting intelligence for strikes deep inside Russia. This marks a major shift in US policy on Ukraine.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4oqtplN

It looks like there's finally a sign of life coming from the Senate chambers. After years of ceding power to the executive branch, a handful of Senators seem to have finally taken a stand.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4gRsWWW

It appears Trump and Hegseth have been getting the Led out, because the song 'Ramble On' pretty much summarizes how their speeches went the other day.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4gPT30m

If you tasked me with creating a list of the greatest threats to America, I'm not sure cabinets, name-brand drugs, and semi-trucks would be on there...but the President disagrees.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3KBe3Mm

Putin just took things one step too far. After sending Russian drones and jets into NATO countries' airspace (and denying responsibility of course), President Trump has said to shoot them down; several European leaders from NATO and the EU are standing by.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pRHOZE

At this critical decade, how will the globes trade routes fare? And which routes will fracture first?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3IIn4mn

As the US steps back from NATO, which country is best suited to take the seat at the head of the table?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-does-a-post-us-nato-look-like

This topic is going to piss off everyone, regardless of where you stand. So, while you watch today's video, take comfort in the fact that everyone will be offended. Now, onto Israel and Palestine’s ongoing conflict.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-most-violent-chapter-of-israel-and-palestine

The Trump-era policies are going full Darth Vader and have the US economy in a chokehold (or force choke for the nerds out there).Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/immigration-and-tariff-policies-stunt-us-economy

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense treaty last week. And no, you’re not the only one thinking, “Hmmm, why would two countries with mismatched security concerns enter into a defense pact?”Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/saudi-arabia-and-pakistan-sign-a-mutual-defense-treaty

I've been discussing the potential for Russian crude supply shortages and a broader collapse of the Russian oil system since the Ukraine War started...so, is it finally happening?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-pressure-is-dialing-up-on-russias-oil-network

Nvidia announced a $5 billion purchase of Intel stock, but it's not the game-changer that the headlines are making it out to be.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/nvidia-purchases-5-billion-of-intel-stock

The Matterhorn, Nestlé Chocolate, and a long-standing history of neutrality, Switzerland has it all. However, the Swiss were too busy enjoying all those comforts and fell asleep at the wheel for the past few decades...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-swiss-are-screwed

Ukraine has added glide bombs to its list of military ordnance, enabling Ukraine to send modified dumb bombs up to 100km away.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-and-everyone-else-develops-glide-bombs

Israeli airstrikes on Hamas targets in Qatar mark a significant shift in Israel's positioning in the region.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/everybody-wants-to-bomb-qatar

The Fed is facing a catch-22. While they would typically lower rates when consumption and growth begin to slow, there are also competing policies that are shrinking the labor force and driving up costs via tariffs.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-federal-reserves-dilemma

The Trump administration’s tough stance on Canada isn't as novel (or as arbitrary) as it may seem.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-trumps-stance-on-canada-makes-sense

Syria has been riddled with problems for ages, but will all that chaos boil up and spill over? The short answer is that it’s unlikely, but let’s unpack it.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/syria-and-the-return-of-the-march

The Ukrainians have ramped up strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, sending ripples through Russia's refining capacity and triggering fuel shortages. But what changes enabled this to occur?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-hammers-russian-oil-infrastructure

To wrap up this short series on things that went down while I was away, we'll be looking at some alarming developments in US security.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/while-i-was-gone-part-4-us-security

Today, we'll be turning our attention towards the economic moves that the Trump admin made while I was away.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/while-i-was-gone-part-3-economic-status

RFK Jr. was busy while I was away...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/while-i-was-gone-part-2-us-health

A US federal appeals court has ruled that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal since the president needs congressional authority to declare trade emergencies or impose tariffs.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/while-i-was-gone-part-1-trade-policy-updates

The UAE is pouring money into building a tech sector, focusing on semiconductor fabrication plants and data centers.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-the-uae-invest-in-a-tech-sector

As we look out onto the battlefields of the wars of tomorrow, will we see humanoid robots and AI-driven autonomous weapons...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-automation-of-war-drags-on

There's a point in many nations' timelines where the per capita income stalls. This is known as the middle-income trap...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/avoiding-the-middle-income-trap

It's not a stretch to say that US agriculture is one of the most automated industries out there...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/automation-of-us-agriculture

I often hear rumblings of China's naval power, but one of the many reasons I pay no mind is the first island chain...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-china-break-through-the-first-island-chain

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it doesn't look like we’re all going to have personal Waymos anytime soon. There are four major hurdles.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/george-jetson-would-be-disappointed-with-autonomous-vehicles

The drought in Iran is worsening, but this isn't going to spur radical and immediate political change. Let's unpack it.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-drought-in-iran-cause-political-change

We're talking about every hiker’s worst nightmare. No, not the feeling of slipping into wet boots that didn't dry out overnight. We're talking about smoke!Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/smokey-bears-best-friend

The Russians have been funding their war effort in Ukraine with oil exports, but some new Ukrainian tactics are disrupting that flow.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-strikes-russias-druzhba-oil-pipeline

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in conflict. But the tides are shifting in favor of Azerbaijan, thanks to several things.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-peace-deal-for-azerbaijan-and-armenia

The global rise of right-wing populist governments has complicated the relationships between many of the dominant countries and leaders. The latest is America and India.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/american-and-indian-relations-sour

We're beginning to see a notable shift in the Russians war strategy in Ukraine. Those large-scale meat assaults are being swapped for small infantry advances and widespread air strikes via drones and missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-evolutions-in-the-ukraine-war

Putin and Trump are planning to meet in Alaska in the coming days. Trump's plan is to emphasize Russia's losses in Ukraine (economically, strategically, and militarily), in hopes that Putin will pull back from the war in Ukraine.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-alaska-summit-putin-and-trump-talk-war

To nobody's surprise, trade talks with Mexico and Canada have stalled. Reminder that these are America's top two trading partners and export markets, so securing a favorable deal isn't just a nice-to-have, it's a necessity.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-trade-talks-nafta-deals-stall

The US is known for having the world's most respected, apolitical data systems. Trump's undermining of this system could jeopardize US policymaking for decades...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-wants-a-second-opinion-on-labor-statistics

AI is working its way into just about every aspect of modern life. I mean, who didn't fall for that video of the bunnies jumping on the trampoline. But artificial intelligence might not be the game-changer in warfare that you think it is...at least not in the short term.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-artificial-intelligence

Before we close out this series on military tech, let's discuss what military advances are on the horizon (and our last episode will cover something we don't need to worry about).Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-whats-ahead

Today, we move onto the backbone of civilizations, the lifeblood of (most) meaningful empires—water. Will future wars be fought over it?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-water-wars

Most of the conversations in this series will revolve around technology, but recruitment is a large component of keeping a military productive. We're not talking about the high school pull up competitions that the recruiters do, but more of the systemic ideology around recruitment itself.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-recruitment

Japan is one of the few countries who has been willing to step into the batter's box and take whatever Trump throws at them. This time at the plate, they were tossed a 15% tariff on Japanese goods (with some big caveats).Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-trade-talks-japan-gets-a-deal

The Trump administration and the EU have announced a new trade deal. It's more of a political headline than a meaningful agreement, but let’s break it down.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-trade-talks-us-eu-strike-a-deal

Let's unpack Trump's evolving stance on Ukraine a bit more today.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-stance-on-ukraine-pt-2

It seems that the Trump administration might be listening to some classic rock lately, because his recent stance on Russia and Putin is awfully reminiscent of The Who's 1971 classic "Won't Get Fooled Again." Or maybe Melania just yelled at him.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-stance-on-ukraine-pt-1

Flooding has already claimed lives and destroyed infrastructure in Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. Over five feet has already fallen—more than an average year’s total rainfall and there is more on the way. There is more to this than just another bad weather forecast.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-vs-mother-nature

We spoke about monetary policy last week, but let's lift the hood. Today, we'll be discussing the inflation outlook under Trump's second term, focusing on tariffs, immigration, and supply chain disruptions.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/inflation-ticks-up-under-trump-2

News recently broke that France has decided to officially recognize Palestinian statehood—a move welcomed by some and ignored by others.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-it-means-to-be-a-state

We've got another economic metric for y'all to keep an eye on. Today, we're looking at total construction spending for US manufacturing capacity.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanLink to metric: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS#Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/keep-an-eye-on-industrial-construction-spending

The Live Q&A is TODAY! Become an Analyst member on Patreon now to get in on the fun! All the info you need to join is on Patreon!Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanJoin the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShare.More info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-us-monetary-policy

The Live Q&A is tomorrow! Become an Analyst member on Patreon before Wed, July 30 at 12PM ET to get in on the fun!Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanJoin the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShare.More info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chinas-stance-on-iran

We’re just 3 days away from our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon! Join us on Wed, July 30 at 12PM ET.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanJoin the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShare.More info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/economic-indicators-retail-sales

We’re less than 1 week away from our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon! Join us on Wed, July 30 at 12PM ET.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanJoin the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShare.More info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/military-affairs-wars-without-people

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShare.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-ukraine-us-deal

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShare.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-happens-after-trump-and-putin-split

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShareJoin the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/copper-imports-slapped-with-50-tariff

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShareJoin the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-and-putin-split-ukraine-gets-aid-again

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShareJoin the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/burgums-energy-strategy

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShareJoin the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/elon-musks-america-party

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShareJoin the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tariff-day-is-here-again

We’re excited to announce our next Live Q&A for the Analyst members on Patreon on Wed, July 30! Join the Analyst Tier in July and we'll donate your membership fees to MedShareJoin the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanMore info on MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/ Over the past 6 months, we've seen Trump use tariffs for everything under the sun. But the Brazilians just got hit with a 50% tariff for an unorthodox reason…because their former president is being prosecuted.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/live-qa-announcement-and-brazilian-tariffs

The BRICS alliance is like a clown at a five-year-old's birthday party...terrifying when your five, but just kind of weird and sad for all the adults. And if you're still scared of the BRICS alliance, I hate to break it to you, but you might be the five-year-old in this analogy.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/stop-worrying-about-the-brics-alliance

Would inflation be good for the US? Sure, it could erode some of the federal debt, but if that's the best we can come up with...yikes.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/heres-why-inflation-isnt-a-solution

Vietnam has been clawing its way up the American import leaderboard. With Trump's July 9 tariff decision-day quickly approaching, let's look at why Vietnam is next in line to China.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/made-in-china-becomes-made-in-vietnam

The future of the Democratic Party in the US isn't looking too bright. When strategy and targeting don't change for over half a century, I suppose that's what they get.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-do-the-democrats-keep-losing-ground

Xi Jinping's ongoing anti-corruption campaign has just found and purged its eighth CMC member, General Miao.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/xi-purges-chinese-military-of-corruptionkinda

American reindustrialization was always going to be painful process, but there were several ways to soften that blow; the biggest of which was our trade relationship with China. At least, it was.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/rebuilding-the-american-industrial-base-rare-earths-edition

Robert Lighthizer, the former US Trade Representative during Trump's first term, declined to return for a second term? But why?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-art-of-trumps-trade-deal

I don't know what was in the water at the latest NATO summit, but something got Trump to be cooperative. Perhaps it had something to do with Mark Rutte greasing his wheels.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/finally-a-productive-nato-summit

Gone are the days of endless artillery barrages. The Russians have relied on this tactic for years, but drones and acoustic detection are changing that.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-ditching-artillery

This video was recorded back in April of this year, hence the snow. The Nimitz is making its final voyage (with a recent detour to the Middle East), before it's set to be decommissioned and replaced by the more advanced Ford-class carriers.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-uss-nimitz

Over the weekend, the US launched a major airstrike on Iran, targeting critical nuclear sites. We don't know the extent of the damage as of yet.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-us-strikes-irans-nuclear-facilities

Trying to predict the long-term future of naval warfare may be futile, but we can examine some of the weapon systems emerging in current conflicts.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-naval-advances

Last time we chatted about the misalignment between American weapons systems and European needs. So, what does the future of Europe's military strategy look like?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-europes-future

Israel and Iran are still in the thick of an air war, which is really their only option given the several countries between them. But are things going to ramp up here soon? Is nuclear war coming? Will the US get involved?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israels-uncertain-endgame-in-iran

Our series on the revolution in military affairs continues with the geopolitics of weapons sales. Why does Europe buy US weapons? And will they continue to do so?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-weapons-sales

Israel and Iran are still going at it, but things have not significantly escalated. Here's a breakdown of the situation and what could come next.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-is-israels-victory-condition-in-iran

With everything going on between Israel and Iran right now, I know what you're thinking - it's time to run to Costco and fill up the gas tank. Hear me out though, we don't live in the same world we did a few decades ago.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/oil-markets-arent-worried-about-iran

Israel has launched a significant military campaign against Iran, primarily targeting nuclear facilities. Let's break down the targets, impacts, and what's coming.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israel-launches-attack-on-iranian-nuclear-sites

Everyone, get your calendars out and draw a big red circle around July. Why? Because a recession could be coming.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanLink to the tracker: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICNSAFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/watch-this-number-for-recession-indicators

Anyone remember that 2011 movie called Battle Los Angeles? It's beginning to look a lot like that again, just with a different kind of aliens this time.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-calls-in-the-marines-for-californias-protests

Today, we're launching into our new series on the future of military affairs. Before we get into what is coming, let's first discuss what past revolutions in warfare have looked like.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-revolution-in-military-affairs-series-intro

The leader of DOGE (aka Elon Musk) has fallen from grace with President Trump and the rest of the agency is crumbling behind him. So, where does this leave the Department of Governmental Efficiency?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/musk-pulls-the-carpet-out-from-under-doge

America's “favorite” couple is breaking up...and doing so very publicly. I guess there just wasn't enough room for two egotistical divas in the relationship.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trouble-in-maga-paradise

With rising violence in Mexico, is it time that the US military steps in? To quote Michael Scott, "No God please no!"Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-the-us-military-invade-mexico

The Russian demographic crisis is worsening. So, let's look at the long-term structural, social, and economic problems, as well as some of the more recent changes hurting the Russian population.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-demographic-crisis-in-russia

It's a bird, it's a plane, it's...some long-awaited clarity on US-China relations. Here are the two major developments that we're tracking and what they mean moving forward.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/finally-some-clarity-on-us-china-relations

Oil has been the secret sauce for the Middle East for ages, but that's beginning to change.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/whats-up-with-the-middle-east-saudi-oil-slips

Ukraine just did more to enhance American national security than any country since 1945. Here's what went down...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-strikes-russian-strategic-bombers

I won't ramble on about Trump's chaotic trade policy because you're all aware of that. However, there are some interesting updates to share.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/coping-mechanisms-101-the-taco-trade

Next up in the Middle East series is Syria. They're enjoying a calm period right now, but the new President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is walking on eggshells to avoid the deep-rooted problems that have plagued Syria for ages.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/whats-up-with-the-middle-east-syrian-dysfunction

We're moving onto the region’s most dominant country - Turkey. Sitting at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, Turkey's military, economy, and political identity have all been shaped by this unique identity.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/whats-up-with-the-middle-east-turkish-dominance

We're kicking off a short new series on the Middle East. Of course, we must begin with the country on everyone's mind - Israel.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/whats-up-in-the-middle-east-israels-future

We're continuing our discussion on the future of tourism with a few new regions. Today we'll be looking at some at-risk European countries, an unstable Middle East, and an uneven Southeast Asia.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-tourism-part-2

If you've followed me for a while, you'll know that I take my travel very seriously. Unfortunately, it seems that my work keeps crawling its way into my personal life, because deglobalization is changing tourism as we know it.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-tourism-part-1

One of the biggest challenges to US reindustrialization isn't the raw materials, it's the lack of processing infrastructure to convert those raw materials into intermediate products. Let's break it down.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-processing-crisis-racing-chinas-decline

As the US withdraws from its position as global protector of the seas, will the age of pirates return once more? Okay, maybe Blackbeard won't be making a comeback, but piracy will have a role in the future of trade.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-piracy-arrrgh

With tensions rising in India and Pakistan, it was only a matter of time before Trump had to step in and put his foot in his mouth. Basically, what happened is the Trump administration announced a ceasefire and peace talks between India and Pakistan...seemingly without consulting either side.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/did-trump-just-wreck-us-india-relations

Yemen, despite all the odds being stacked against it, has recently become strategically significant.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iran-snuggles-up-with-the-houthis-in-yemen

Over 100 million people are missing in China!? No, the Chinese aren't playing the world's largest game of hide and seek, instead there's widespread fraud in their data collection system. Yay!Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-how-do-you-lose-100-million-people

Xi Jinping continues to push China closer and closer to that scary edge they've been staring at for quite some time. So, what will the fall of China look like?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-xis-power-chokehold

As the pressure within the Chinese system continues to mount, you can expect to see signs as the first few things begin to crack. Those first pieces to slip will be manufactured goods, processed materials, and services.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-chinas-first-domino

Note: This video was recorded during Peter's hiking trip in 2024Many countries are on the brink of crisis. No, I'm not talking about political issues or potential wars. Instead, I'm looking at the aging population crisis facing a number of countries around the globe. Let's start with Japan.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/aging-populations-and-which-countries-look-the-worst

Trade tensions are taking their toll on an already fragile Chinese system. The US is dealing with self-sufficiency problems, but for China, it is an existential question. Will this new deal change that?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-deal-with-the-chinese

Today, we're launching into the next phase of our "Fire Hose of Chaos” series, shifting our focus from the US and onto China. Trust me, there will be no shortage of chaos in this series either.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-chinese-edition-intro

Everyone gets mad at me for critiquing the leader that they like, but listen...I'm out here roasting everybody. Whether it's Obama, Trump, Xi Jinping, or Grandma, nobody is safe. Okay fine, we'll leave Gram Gram out of it for today.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-question-of-leadershipand-management

Many of America's most beloved brands rely on Chinese manufacturing, but what happens when that goes away?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-american-brands

Romania just held its second attempt at the first round of presidential elections, after the initial round was invalidated due to Russian interference. Looks like the Romanians are having some major déjà vu.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russians-continue-stirring-the-romanian-pot

US agriculture is heading towards a major crisis, and yes, Trump's trade policies are to blame for this as well. Many of the US ag export markets are closed off, and farmers are feeling the heat.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-agriculture

Jerome Powell has been on the receiving end of Trump's threats and the markets have reacted negatively to the undermining of the Fed's credibility. Here's the full picture.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-the-fed

On Monday, April 28, a widespread power outage hit Spain and Portugal. Other than our marketing guy who was on vacation in Madrid at the time claiming he "had no signal" and "couldn't work", this outage highlights a broader issue with renewable energy infrastructure.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-night-the-lights-went-out-in-geor-er-spain

What do you get when you mix overly aggressive trade measures and a poor economic plan? Trump's idea of a great start. Or, as I like to call it, a policy-induced recession. Here’s what’s happening.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-recession-time

Does everyone remember that bedtime story about the Three Little Pigs and the Big Bad Wolf? Well, the Trump administration is doing its best wolf impression and trying to blow the entire housing industry down.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-housing-problems

The Trump administration has given us a masterclass on how to set supply chains ablaze using tariffs. While some supply chains are smoldering, others are raging wildfires. So, let's look at two that are in the thick of it: steel and aluminum.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-steel-and-aluminum

The US has known that a capital crunch was inbound for decades now. With the Baby Boomers retiring and Trump's trade policies hitting at the same time, these financial woes might sting a bit more than we thought.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-finance

Today we're discussing the Trump administration's 96th tariff policy which imposes port fees on Chinese ships.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-port-fees

In the past, we've chatted through the domestic issues facing New Zealand, so let's discuss the economic future of the ~5 million Kiwis in the context of the shifting global landscape.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-new-zealand-dive-or-thrive

Well, the Russian Reach series needed an update, and it's not a pretty one. The infiltration of the US government by Russian interests is growing and I don't see an end in sight.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-concerning-update-to-the-russian-reach-series

The green transition in the US has made great progress in recent years, but the wheels are falling off. This is largely due to economic pressures, lack of financing, and the new tariffs instituted by Trump.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-green-transition-is-over

With everything that's going on in the US, it makes sense that foreign investors decided to dump US T-Bills. But what does this mean for the government debt market and the future of the USD?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-government-debt

Pete Hegseth, the current Secretary of Defense, has been doing his best to completely dismantle the United States' ability to fight a war now or in the future. Let's look at why this is happening...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-is-hegseth-doing

The Trump administration has introduced a level of chaos that can only result in one thing: corruption. I'm not talking about starting a cryptocurrency or manipulating the stock market, this is deeper.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-fire-hose-of-chaos-corruption

US efforts against fentanyl have been ramping up. Specifically, the Trump administration has turned its focus to one specific Mexican cartel - La Familia Michoacana.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-theres-no-fentanyl-in-easter-eggs-this-year

The US is plugging a loophole in the trade system called "de minimis" which allowed imported goods under $800 to bypass tariffs and traditional customs processes. This system will end on May 2, and these small packages will now face a 90% tariff and $75 minimum fee.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/bye-bye-de-minimis

The Trump administration can put out as much trade deal fluff as they want, but the reality is that the internal dysfunction and unpredictable nature of this admin will impede most deals from ever making it out of an email chain.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/dont-expect-many-trade-deals

What could have happened much, much further down the road (or even avoided given the right circumstances) is now in the headlines - the US is headed into a recession.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/wait-the-recession-is-already-here

Here's a video I recorded while I was in New Zealand at the end of 2024. In this video, we cover a question that the US is still trying to answer - should the US maintain its presence in the Middle East?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-the-us-stay-in-the-middle-east

Trump's endless tariff policies will likely hit just about every corner of the American economy, but the US housing industry is poised to take a devastating blow.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/i-hope-you-didnt-want-to-buy-a-home

If you're like me, you've probably sat at your computer for hours on end, reading tons of articles, watching countless interviews, and you still have one question...Does Trump have any strategy at all?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-trump-playing-4d-chess

The tariffs on China are now effectively 145% and penalties tied to Venezuelan oil could raise that to 170%. Trump's tariff policies are nearing the triple digits, so the level of uncertainty filling every board room is chilling.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/of-tariffs-manufacturing-and-psas

It's hard to equate Trump's tariff policies to much of anything, but the movie "Unstoppable" where Denzel Washington needs to stop a runaway train might be the best I can come up with.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-trade-act

One of the countries who got caught up in the 'Liberation Day' crossfire was Vietnam. Through an arbitrary and poorly informed process, Vietnam was slapped with a 46% tariff.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tariff-spotlight-vietnam

The Spaniards have been on an economic hot streak as of late. So, what have they been doing right, and will this streak continue?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ostia-spains-economy-is-booming

The 2025 US threat assessment has revealed that India is now a significant source of precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production, alongside China.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/india-complicates-the-us-fentanyl-crisis

It appears that democracy has fallen in Turkey, as Erdogan has arrested his only major political challenger - Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. With Erdogan's suppression of his (only) political opposition, he has signaled the transition from a democracy to an autocracy.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/turkey-takes-a-break-from-democracy

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanWell, the fat lady ain't singing yet. Late yesterday, more updates on Trump's tariffs were released.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-tariffs-stalk-at-midnight

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanTrump has announced his first big batch of tariffs (that's right, what's happened until this point is fairly small compared to the new stuff). Here's a snapshot of where this one round will take us...Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-tariffs-reciprocal-edition

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanWell, it finally happened. Word got back to President Trump that Putin and the Russians were making a fool of him in their negotiations and peace talks, so the obvious next step is to throw some more tariffs at them...Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/secondary-tariffs-and-trump-gets-pissed-off

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanOn March 25, President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on purchases of Venezuelan crude. There's a lot going on with this one, so let's cover the micro and macro.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/secondary-tariffs-and-trump-gets-pissed-off

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanSignalgate. Well...Shit.

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanThe Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts. While this tariff isn't as severe as the others expected on April 2, it will still increase the cost of vehicles in the US by $2-3k on average.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/immigration-and-auto-tariffs

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanThe Trump administration has decided to rescind legal status for over half a million immigrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti. If you've listened to any of my videos, you’ll know there are some glaring holes in this decision.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/immigration-and-auto-tariffs

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanThe Supreme Allied Commander position in NATO allows the US to lead allied forces in wartime. However, the Trump administration is considering withdrawing the US from that position (mainly for cost-cutting reasons).Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-natos-supreme-allied-commander

President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have announced the approval of the Air Force’s newest toy, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform, aka the F-47 fighter jet.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ngad-platform-f-47

I recorded this video before Trump took office for his second term. At the time, this video outlined the trajectory the US was on. We held off on releasing the video because...well, everything was going to be changing.We'll be doing a deep dive on all of this during the Live Q&A on April 9 over on Patreon.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-american-reindustrialization

If you look back at my videos covering a potential future recession, you'll notice that I really wasn't too concerned in the short term. Well, this next set of tariffs to be announced in early April, might change all of that.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/getting-ready-for-trumps-tariffs

Israel has resumed military operations in Gaza, so any ceasefire or hostage deal that was on the table can be kissed goodbye.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/gaza-goes-back-to-square-one

Our next Live Q&A on Patreon is here! On April 9, Peter will join the Analyst members on Patreon for question time! In order to get in on the fun, join the 'Analyst tier' on Patreon before April 9.Link to join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanAs the Trump administration shifts US foreign policy, several countries are taking notice of the rising global instability. It looks like the nuclear question is getting thrown around by quite a few of those countries.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/going-nuclear-live-qa-announcement

Here's a quick update on what's going on in the Ukraine War and the discussions of a potential ceasefire.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ukraine-war-ceasefire

How about some positive news to start your day? A study was just released showing that fentanyl deaths in the US peaked in 2022 or early 2023 and have been declining since.Study link: https://opioiddatalab.ghost.io/peak-od-phenotypes/Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/fentanyl-isnt-as-lethalwhat-happened

Today on the paid Patreon page, I released the full video covering Trump's next round of tariffs set for early April and the impact they'll have on the economy. For access to that video, join the Patreon now!We’re also excited to announce our next LIVE Q&A session will be on April 9th! This is an exclusive perk for our Analyst members on Patreon. More info can be found on the Patreon page.Click the link below to join the Patreon…Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

A nice convo with mom and dad can always yield some new ideas, so if all you get from this video is "give your parents a call" - I'll consider that a win. The TLDR of our convo is that you shouldn't expect good policy from the Trump Administration.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-you-shouldnt-expect-good-policy

This video was originally posted on Patreon on Feb. 19, 2025. At the time, negotiations were just beginning between the US and Russia on the topic of Ukraine.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-nato-and-negotiations

If you thought that Putin already had enough to dream about based upon yesterday's video, I've got news for you. Today, we'll be adding some more items to Russia's wish list.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-russias-wish-list-part-2

The Russians have already achieved a major intelligence breakthrough by influencing American leadership, but what if they started really swinging for the fences? What would be on the Russian wish list?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-russias-wish-list-part-1

The long-term outlook for China is bleak. I've discussed it plenty. However, the Chinese are getting a little lovin' from an unexpected source.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-chinese-attempt-the-impossible

I've been on the receiving end of more than a few theories on what might be contributing to the absurdity that we're seeing. One of the more interesting ideas is that there could be some Christian ultranationalism on the table.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-christian-ultranationalism

Let's take a breather from the Russian Reach series and talk about something going on in Africa. Specifically, we'll be looking at the escalating conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/making-sense-of-africa

Government-backed paramilitary forces (supported by Turkey) in Syria's Alawite enclave brutally suppressed the Alawite opposition. The Alawites are now seeking protection at Russian military bases as the Sunni-led government consolidates power.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-fresh-mess-in-syria

If Russia's influence can make its way into the US on the scale we're discussing, you can only imagine how bad it is in places like Romania.In December of last year, we discussed the "Red Strings in Romania" (which you can watch here: https://youtu.be/LP7tkPO6Wqk ) - but things have ramped up.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-a-grip-on-romania

The Russian intelligence system is comprised of a vast and interconnected network of agents. Each of these pawns plays a different role in supporting the "king" back in Moscow.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-categorizing-intelligence-agents

This is part 2 of my attempt at catching up to current events in our Russian Reach series...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-playing-catch-up-pt-2

We're only four days into this series and somehow it seems as though we're weeks behind current events. So, I'm doing some rapid fire updates this weekend to bring everyone up to speed.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-playing-catch-up-pt-1

The US has halted all intelligence sharing with Ukraine. If you thought the weapons cutoff was a big deal, buckle up.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-us-cuts-ukraine-intel-dominos-fall

Putin, like the Soviets before him, is clouded by fear of invasion due to Russia's vulnerable geography. Understanding that makes Russia's strategy of expansion and occupation towards defensible borders clearer.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-geography-and-intelligence

Following the March 4th elections, the Germans are poised to see a significant political and military shift...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-big-change-in-germany

Despite the short-term emphasis placed on the title of president, chancellor, or prime minister, the reality is that leadership typically has minimal impact on the trajectory of a nation.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-why-leadership-doesnt-matter

Imprisoned Kurdish PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, has once again called for the PKK to disarm and transition into a political party, but this time it might actually happen.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/doors-open-for-turkey-as-the-kurds-disarm

There are two issues we'll be discussing today: Bird Flu and the new disease outbreak in Congo. These topics are unrelated, but there is a lesson to be learned in their comparison.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/of-birds-and-bugs

Venezuelan oil is getting the boot from the US. Well, kinda, sorta, not really. Let me walk you through what’s going on.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/venezuelan-crude-is-off-the-menu

This is the first of a multi-part series covering just how far Russia's reach into the US is. You're getting early access to this video to show you what you're missing out on! Join Patreon now to see the first 5 videos of The Russian Reach series, and help us donate to MedShare in the process. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanInfo on MedShare International: https://www.medshare.org/disruptions-in-humanitarian-aid-zeihan/Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-reach-series-introduction

There's a lot going on in Ukraine right now, so let's do a quick update on the military and diplomatic developments.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/from-the-frontlines-in-ukraine-to-truth-social

New Zealand has been having some issues, with a 1% economic contraction and roughly 80,000 people leaving the country. What does this mean for one of my favorite countries?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/economic-troubles-for-new-zealand

If I was tasked with raising and educating the next generation of workers (aka what middle school teachers do daily), what would I teach my minions (okay fine, "students") to best prepare them for the future?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/educating-the-workers-of-tomorrow

Both in the US and globally, the green energy transition has been all the rage for the past few years. With President Trump's second term kicking off, how will it impact the green transition domestically and beyond?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-trump-pump-the-brakes-on-greentech

Listen, I didn't want to make this video, but too many people asked for it...so here we go. What would a potential merger of the US and Canada look like?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-us-and-canada-actually-merge

Rare earths are back in the headlines, but is all the hype worth it? Let's breakdown what these are and how "rare" they actually are.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/are-rare-earths-really-that-rare

The last few videos have covered all the things that Trump is focusing on (and doing wrong), and many of you have asked where he SHOULD be spending his time.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-trump-should-take-on-instead

Trump's immigration policies have caused quite the stir, specifically his hardline stance on illegal migration. So, how will these policies impact the US economy?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-takes-on-illegal-immigration

There's plenty of tools at the disposal of the US President and tariffs are one of them. When used appropriately - i.e., to get something else or discourage a certain action - tariffs can be a very effective measure. However, Trump is using them as an end, rather than a means to an end.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-takes-on-trade

China is on its last legs. Its demographic picture is far past terminal. Its financial system makes Enron look responsible. Simply feeding its people is far beyond Beijing’s capacity without legions of outside assistance.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-takes-on-chinaor-not

Israeli successes across the Levant have transformed the broader Middle East, wrecking the countries and militant groups that have long scourged the region.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-takes-on-the-middle-east

US President Donald J Trump, both directly and via his senior staff, has outlined his administration’s policies for Europe, Ukraine and Russia.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-takes-on-russia

Second-time freshman President Donald J Trump is taking the axe to the federal workforce. Or at least he is attempting to.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-takes-on-washington

I've talked extensively about the generational divides in the US, but what about other countries? Let's look at the unique demographic trends in Russia, China, and Iran.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/generational-divides-of-other-countries

Imagine never paying income tax again. Sounds damn nice to me too. That's until reality kicks in and you start looking at the math on how large the tariffs would need to be to replace those taxes...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-tariffs-replace-income-taxes

Building on yesterday's video, we'll be talking about the future of Russia following its collapse. So, what can we expect the Russia after Russia to look like?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-after-russia

Today we'll be discussing Russian birth and death rates since we've got some new Russian demographic data to look at. So, go ahead and grab that truckload of salt.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-depopulation

Today's conversation might piss off a few prophylactic companies (no, I'm not suggesting we buy thumb tacks and go crazy). The question of the day is...how can we get people to procreate?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-real-secret-to-saving-birthrates

Syria's interim leader Ahmed Al Shara has been meeting with the region's big dogs - Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Respectively, they represent the financial backbone and the military power of the region, so buddying up isn't the worst idea.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/syria-opens-doors-for-turkey

Georgia Power (owned by Southern Company) updated its IRP and is sending environmental activists into a tizzy.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/coal-remains-essential-for-us-electricity

We're looking at some global economic growth patterns today. Unfortunately, we're entering an era with a lot of unknowns. Between collapsing demographics and industrial challenges, there seems to be more countries in the red than the green. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/global-economic-growth-patterns

Drones are all the rage right now and China is jumping on the bandwagon. With Chinese plans to create over 1 million combat-ready drones within two years, should the US be worried?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/dealing-with-chinese-drones

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanChinese firm, DeepSeek, claimed to develop an AI model at a fraction of the cost used to develop competing models. This has caused quite the stir, but what is actually going on?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ai-drama-deepseek-nvidia-and-china

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanIf you want to access to all the videos as soon as they are released, be sure to join the Patreon. Trump has used up a lot of paper in his first 10 days in office, but he hasn't spent much time working with Congress to make his executive orders stick.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-political-capital-bonfire

The US housing market has been through a lot, so what does this current chapter look like? We're going to be looking at several factors impacting the trajectory of the US housing market.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/whats-the-us-housing-market-doing

I've bad mouthed solar power enough times for people to know where I stand, but why am I taking it easier on wind power?Join the Live Q&A on Feb. 7 by becoming an Analyst member on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/wind-energy-deserves-some-love

After four consecutive presidents adopting a neo-isolationist mentality, the era of bipartisan globalization is coming to an end. So, what will the future of US foreign policy look like?Join the Live Q&A on Feb. 7 by becoming an Analyst member on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-end-of-bipartisan-foreign-policy

This video was recorded before Peter left on his New Zealand tripWestern sanctions against Russia aim to restrict revenue flows by barring access to Western shipping, banking and insurance...but there's one more step that could be taken to put the final sanction nail in the Russian coffin. Join the Live Q&A on Feb. 7 by becoming an Analyst member on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-two-sided-coin-of-russian-sanctions

Most of us think of real estate as a solid investment, and a good chunk of the Chinese population thought the same, but things aren't always what they seem.Join the Live Q&A on Feb. 7 by becoming an Analyst member on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-failure-of-chinese-real-estate

With a glacier as the backdrop for this video, I figured it only appropriate to discuss resource exploitation, Arctic shipping, and agriculture as it relates to climate change.Join the Live Q&A on Feb. 7 by becoming an Analyst member on Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-geopolitics-of-climate-change

Trump had a fat stack of executive orders waiting to be slammed down onto his desk as soon as he took office. One of those was his designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist groups, which will have some unintended consequences.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-cartels-terrorism-andincreasing-migration

Hello to all our newsletter members! We’re excited to announce that our next Live Q&A is on February 7. If you were looking for an excuse to upgrade to The Analyst tier, here is your reason...In addition to getting access to the Live Q&A and all the premium content, you'll also be helping a good cause. All new Analyst tier membership fees for the first three months of 2025 will be donated to: https://www.lafoodbank.org/Peter will be answering a mix of questions submitted ahead of time and questions submitted live, so you don’t want to miss out! Once you join The Analyst tier, you’ll be able to register for the Q&A, submit your questions, and join in on the conversation.You’ll also get a recording of the Live Q&A to watch at your leisure! Why not treat yourself to an early Valentine’s gift and help others in the process…We’re excited to see you there!

There are two primary trends that continue from this past summer: the Ukrainians are maintaining their offensive in the Russian region of Kursk, while Russian troops are continuing their slow slog toward the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/its-time-for-an-update-on-the-war-in-ukraine

Today, we're talking about America's Gen X, aka the best generation, and our role in the US economy moving forward. Let's look at the current situation and what to expect in the coming decade or so.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/boomers-xers-and-budgeting

Javier Milei, Argentina's President, has been leading the country for a year now. So, let's review what he has been able to accomplish in that time.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/milei-one-year-on

We've discussed what TSMC is up to in a recent video, so let's look at what another big name in the semiconductor space -Intel- is doing to keep up.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/intel-keeps-playing-catch-up-with-tsmc

A potential US recession or depression is always in the back of our minds, but how close are we really?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-next-recession-isnt-here-quite-yet

Although Russia's military performance in the Ukraine War has been underwhelming, that doesn't mean we can write off the Russians quite yet. This conflict, and what could follow, should still be a top concern for the West.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-is-failing-not-failed

Another layer of the challenges facing the Trump administration is the fallout from a Chinese collapse and what it will mean for US reindustrialization.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-20-reindustrialization

Next in our Trump 2.0 list, we have Iran. This is one of those countries that is quite isolated from the US, so Trump can have a bit more fun with his policies.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-20-iran

In this video, Peter mentioned a total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.5. While this may be the case for certain urban cores, China's national TFR is closer to 1.0. Still abysmal, though slightly less catastrophic. -ZoGEveryone knows where I stand on China, but how will Trump's second term play into that?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-20-china

The Chinese are stockpiling resources - food, fuel, and materials - to help it endure a protracted conflict with the US. Is this something to be concerned about?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-has-no-chance

With the increasing possibility of disruptions to the Middle East oil supply, I was asked an ~interesting~ question on how to solve it. Could foreign intervention in Venezuela open its oil supply as an alternative to Middle Eastern oil. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/venezuelan-oil-in-middle-east

Next on our list of things Trump 2.0 will have to deal with is NATO. Trump's second term could reshape NATO dynamics, with a significant focus on defense spending, China, and European alliances.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-20-nato

As Trump enters his second term, there are going to be numerous challenges facing his administration. So, we're launching a series touching on several of these issues and what to expect from President Trump. Our first video in the series covers Ukraine and Russia.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-20-russia

Today, we're looking at the countries that didn't quite make the first team, but still have something to offer as a strategic partner to the US. Let's break these places down.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/my-dream-alliance-for-the-us-part-2

Trump just kicked around invading and coercing some allies. Oh boy....Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-goes-a-conquerin

When I picture my ideal US alliance system, I focus on stable, secure, and economically complementary countries. Part one of this two-part series focuses on the "safe" bets.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/my-dream-alliance-for-the-us-part-1

A lot of you have been worried about all of China's investments in Latin America. I get that it might sound a little scary, but you need to put these actions into the broader context of China's circumstances.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/bring-on-the-chinese-investments-in-latam

That innate sense of independence that every Texan comes out of the womb with has also made its way into the energy sector. With an isolated grid managed by ERCOT, Texas has found itself in an energy pickle of its own. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-federal-regulation-coming-to-the-texas-power-grid

Picture this: you're driving down the PCH in a sports car with the top down, hair is blowing in the wind, and then the gas light comes on. You pull into the first gas station you see and a gallon of gas costs $14.99. Okay, maybe I'm exaggerating a little, but California is heading towards a massive energy crisis. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-is-gas-so-expensive-in-california

American imperialism is not the same as European imperialism. The Europeans wanted power, prestige and economic gain, while the US was in it for security. So, what will this look like for the Americans moving forward?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-american-imperialism

President Trump suggested that Europe should buy US oil and gas to address trade deficits and strengthen alliances. I have a few qualms with this.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-new-grand-strategy

MNNO (aka Michael) is the Director of Analysis at Zeihan on Geopolitics. You heard Peter's take yesterday...and now you get a different perspective on Jimmy Carter's "legacy".Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

I typically avoid the analysis of late U.S. presidents, but Jimmy Carter is a special case.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/jimmy-carters-consequential-4-years

In my books, I highlighted how even a minor, seemingly insignificant event could cripple global maritime shipping. Well, not only did one of those events just happen, three did. We're talking about a Russian cargo ship sinking, Israel targeting the Houthis in Yemen, and Finland impounding a Russian ship.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/playing-jenga-with-maritime-shipping

Today's AI technology, while promising, isn't quite ready for widespread application. I'm not talking so much about AI's capabilities, but rather the hardware limitations and supply chain challenges that are getting in the way. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/artificial-intelligence-isnt-ready-for-mass-application

The Nordic nations are teasing a new initiative of inspecting ships leaving Russia's St. Petersburg port for insurance and environmental compliance. This may seem insignificant, but it could disrupt shipping on a global scale.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/one-ship-inspection-could-unravel-global-maritime-shipping

There are reports stating the Russian naval fleet might have found a new home (since their last one in Syria is no longer available). This new location is Benghazi, Libya and boy oh boy would I love to see that happen.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-navy-leaves-syria-for-benghazi

The Chinese Government has moved toward implementing an export ban on drones and drone components, with an eye toward making supply issues a particular headache for the United States and the Ukrainians. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-chinese-cut-off-drone-exports

From humble beginnings to a global trading hub, Singapore has solidified itself as a key player in the region and beyond.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-singapore

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to demote former Finance Minister and deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland has triggered a new round of speculation over his political future. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/there-goes-the-canadian-government

With the Iranians eyeing nukes, why haven’t regional powers like the Israelis stepped in and squashed those dreams?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israels-strategy-for-iranian-nukes

The fall of the Assad regime has left a fragmented and chaotic landscape in its wake. The punchline is that Syria's future does not lie within its borders; a regional power from outside will need to step in and help.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-syria-and-turkeys-role

Well, it looks like American politics got drunk at the holiday party and forgot who it was. Exit polls from the latest election show a significant shift in voting patterns.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-americans-didnt-vote-with-their-wallets

The most recent presidential election in Romania has been annulled, and surprise, surprise, it's because of the Russians.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/red-strings-in-romania

Syria was critical for Iran's influence in the Arab world. For 40 years the Iranians could project power via Syria and Hezbollah, but the collapse of the Assad regime means Syria's role as buffer and distraction has ended. So, what's next for Iran?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-syrian-consequence-iran-goes-defensive

The Russians aren't the only ones trying to figure out what to do following the chaos in Syria; Israel is also reassessing their regional positioning. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-syrian-consequence-israels-opportunity

Much has changed since I left for New Zealand a few days ago, and I'm sure everyone has already caught up on the Syrian unraveling. So, let's dive into the history of Syria and the consequences that all this will have, specifically what this means for Russia.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-syrian-consequence-russias-withdrawal

The Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has succeeded in toppling the Assad regime.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/toppling-assad-and-a-divided-syria

The Europeans are having a bit of a leadership crisis at the moment, and it's coming at an inopportune time...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-mar-a-lago-solve-the-leadership-vacuum-in-europe

The Germans are on a steep uphill climb trying to figure all their s*** out. On the chopping block today is Germany's automotive and industrial sectors (with Volkswagen being our guinea pig).Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-german-failure-volkswagen

South Korea caught fire yesterday as President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law and deployed the military to shut down parliament. But that didn't last long...the parliament summarily overturned that decision – unanimously no less. So where does that leave the Koreans?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/korean-martial-law-starts-and-ends

Protesters have taken to the streets in Georgia after pro-Russian oligarch and head of the ruling Georgia Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, announced that Tbilisi would be ending its bid to join the EU.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-russians-need-georgia-and-the-caucasus

This is a compilation of videos outlining what led Syria to Civil War...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/syria-breakdown-what-led-them-to-this

I've done a handful of videos on semiconductors and there's a very good reason for that. The production of semiconductors and the companies involved will be under the spotlight for the next few years as the entire industry gets shaken up.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tsmcs-semiconductor-production-in-the-usa

When asked to list the things I worry about for the US, most of the typical geopolitical issues I discuss aren't on that list. So, today we're getting a bit more granular and talking about fentanyl.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-im-worried-about-fentanyl-in-the-us

Unlike Trump's proposed tariffs for China, the tariffs heading for Canada and Mexico can be viewed as leverage (or bargaining chips) to address issues amongst our North American trade partners.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-tariffs-part-2-canada-and-mexico

The Trump administration is planning to impose some hefty tariffs on China. This isn't just to reform trade practices and show China "who's the boss", but rather to shift industrial production away from China permanently.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-tariffs-part-1-china

The US oil industry has seen a massive boost thanks to the shale revolution, but can the Europeans replicate the success the US has seen?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/no-shale-for-europe

Following the United States' approval for Ukraine to use its weapons systems inside of Russia, Putin decided to launch an intermediate-range missile called the Oreshnik into Ukraine. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/when-the-missile-is-the-message

I'm overlooking the city of Chihuahua, Mexico as I record today's video. This city is just one of many that is preparing for a post-China world, and you can probably hear all that preparation going on in the background... Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/viva-chihuahua

If you're getting worried about Chinese investments into infrastructure in Mexico, it might be time to switch the TV off and take a walk...because that narrative is a complete fabrication. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-dont-worry-about-chinese-investment-in-mexico

Listen, I'm not one to scoff at a nice serving of fish ‘n’ chips, but when you're serving baked beans for breakfast...that's where I draw the line. You guessed it, we're talking about the decline of British agriculture today.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/british-agriculture-is-about-to-suck-even-more

The Biden administration just gave Ukraine the greenlight to use American weaponry inside of Russian territory. So, what does this mean for the future of the Ukraine War?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-can-now-strike-russia-direct

Donald Trump's cabinet appointees are rolling in and let's just say they're not the A-team, but what did we expect?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-cabinet-picks-loyalty-over-experience

This is a sample of the news digest that Peter Zeihan starts his day with: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-glimpse-into-our-daily-news-digest If you want to get the news digest sent to your inbox daily, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

The recent discovery of TSMC chips in Huawei devices has revealed some gaps in the US sanctions on China.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tsmc-cuts-chinas-access-to-advanced-chips

Beijing has announced a hefty plan to help local Chinese governments refinance their debt. But is this enough to ward off the mounting debt crisis?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-china-save-itself-from-the-mounting-debt-crisis

PC or console? Yes, I'm talking about gaming preferences...and if you answered PC, then we all owe you a big thank you.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-geopolitics-of-gaming

Well, that didn't go the way I expected. Here's what happened...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Link to graphics: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/election-postmortem

China is facing a demographic crisis, but can immigration be used to counter it?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-immigration-solve-chinas-people-problem

I'm sure this isn't a shock, but a lot of folks have asked what I think of the incoming trump administrations cabinet nominations. Before I delve in Monday's video into the simple and forgiving world of American domestic politics, I think it would be best to review where this all began. In this special weekend edition we reach into the way-back machine and go back to New Year's 2021 when the world seemed so different, and so similar. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/remember-when-taking-it-back-to-2021

The nature of naval warfare is evolving - with advancing drone tech leading the charge - but not all of the world's navies and regions will be impacted the same.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-naval-tech-war-on-the-seas

Everyone grab your favorite road trip snack and pick out some good tunes, because today we're talking about the increasingly important I-35 corridor. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-one-road-propping-up-us-mexico-trade

The future for most of the BRIC countries is not - as Rihanna so eloquently put it - "shining bright like a diamond." Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/which-brics-member-will-survive

Some new advancements in AI and geology have revealed a massive lithium deposit in Arkansas's Smackover Formation (great name by the way). While this is good news, we still have a lot of work to do before this lithium sees the light of day.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/counting-lithium-chickens-before-they-hatch

Many of you have asked who my favorite US President is, so I figured I would do a video covering that. And we don't have to go too far back, just to number 41 - George H.W. Bush.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/my-favorite-us-president-of-all-time-is

As the election approaches, the topic of illegal immigration is getting as much airtime as Brittney Spears did in the early 2000s. And I hate to burst your bubble, but all those undocumented immigrants are probably doing more good than harm.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/undocumented-immigrants-impact-on-us-labor-and-economy

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the US dollar ain't going nowhere. There's simply no other currency with the volume or liquidity to fill the shoes of the dollar. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-a-brics-currency-replace-the-us-dollar

We're busting out the trusty ole crystal ball today, and looking at the two US regions most poised to succeed in the coming decades. I'm guessing it has something to do with the BBQ they're eating, so yes, we're talking about Texas and North Carolina.This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-regions-of-the-future-texas-north-carolina

Israel has had a lot of eyes on it lately and many are starting to wonder what the future looks like for this small and arid country. Let's break this down through the lens of deglobalization.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/america-after-the-election-foreign-policy

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Listen, I debated even entertaining an election video for today, but since this question was so good, I just had to record one. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/america-after-the-election-foreign-policy

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Now that we've had a bit more time to see what happened in Israel's latest attack on Iran, let's dive a bit deeper. Israel struck military facilities like missile storage and production sites, but avoided nuclear and oil infrastructure. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israel-attacks-iran-again-part-1-2

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Let's talk climate change. With conservative estimates, we're looking at a few degrees of warming by the end of the century, but if we look at this in the light of global trends, it could be even worse. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/climate-change-will-be-different-for-everyone

Today is the final day of our MedShare fundraiser! If you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon When you join the Patreon, you can expect to see the videos and newsletters as soon as they are released, as well as exclusive perks like live Q&A sessions, a community forum, daily news digests, and more! Link: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Russian "diplomats" are being expelled from Poland due to sabotage attempts. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russians-russians-everywhere-final-call-for-medshare-fundraiser

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Nuclear power has a bad reputation, and I get it...Chernobyl, nuclear waste, and outdated infrastructure. Buttt, it’s a reliable, carbon-free energy source that might be getting a much needed facelift soon-ish. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/smrs-are-giving-nuclear-power-a-facelift

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Cuba's power grid is collapsing. No, it's not because of US sanctions or socialism. This ongoing crisis can be blamed on Cuba's lack of investment into modernizing and its reliance on Soviet and Venezuelan fuel. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cubas-power-grid-fails-but-an-opportunity-arises

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Watch this video I sent out a year ago for a refresher on a few of these technologies and the limits to innovation. Here’s the link: https://youtu.be/fF4YTDsxcnc Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/spacex-takes-one-giant-leap-for-space-tech

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon There's some growing concern in Europe that a Trump victory in the US election could lead to a decrease in support for Ukraine. Without the US backing them, many European countries might reach for nukes to deter any potential conflicts. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-saudi-arabia-start-an-oil-price-war-1709148

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon My crystal ball is working overtime trying to figure out what the future of oil prices will look like. You've already heard one of the scenarios, but here's another POTENTIAL way this could play out. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-saudi-arabia-start-an-oil-price-war

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon A couple more countries have joined the campaign trail to buildout their semiconductor industries: the United Arab Emirates and India. Let's break down the different approaches to this buildout and how they might turn out. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-uae-and-india-look-to-localize-semiconductor-manufacturing

Don't miss out on the Live Q&A - TODAY - Wednesday, Oct. 23rd! Click here to join Patreon: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Already joined the Patreon? You can also donate directly to MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-responds/ Given the recent conflict in the Middle East, I'm worried that an oil crisis could be brewing. The main players that might kick off the (next) Gulf War are Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-faces-deflation-as-economy-stutters

Don't miss out on the Live Q&A on Wednesday, Oct. 23rd. Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Given the recent conflict in the Middle East, I'm worried that an oil crisis could be brewing. The main players that might kick off the (next) Gulf War are Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-next-gulf-war-is-coming

Patreon Link: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Still haven’t joined the Patreon? Well, if you don’t want to miss out on the Live Q&A, join “The Analyst” tier before next Wednesday, October 23rd! And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare. Click here to join me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/my-recent-interview-on-borderlands-patreon

Don't miss out on the Live Q&A on Wednesday, Oct. 23rd. Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Already joined the Patreon? You can also donate directly to MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-responds/ President Biden is making a trip out to Africa (since recording, this trip has been postponed due to national weather issues). No, he's not going on safari; he's looking to shake some babies and kiss some hands over in Angola. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/president-biden-is-making-a-trip-to-angola

Don't miss out on the Live Q&A on Wednesday, Oct. 23rd. Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon We're hitting the backroads today and chatting about the small town of Spruce Pine, North Carolina. What this town lacks in population, it makes up in its (extremely important) quartz mines.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-a-small-town-in-nc-could-disrupt-global-semiconductor-production

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan If you ever need to make an online dating profile, be sure to add "long walks on the beach discussing the economic challenges facing China" to the list...I promise you'll double the dates in no time. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-downward-spiral-of-the-chinese-economy

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Israeli defense systems are getting put through the ringer as of late, so let's talk through each of these systems, how they're doing, and what the US involvement looks like. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-effective-are-the-israeli-defense-systems

Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Already joined the Patreon? You can also donate directly to MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/ I know everyone wants constant updates on the upcoming US election, and if you haven't figured this out by now, that's not really my shtick. However, I will offer a couple factors that could influence the outcome of this election. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-what-do-hurricanes-and-political-factions-have-in-common

Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Already joined the Patreon? You can also donate directly to MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/ Reports coming out of South Korea indicate that North Korean troops could be deploying to Russia. These reports are unconfirmed, but the South Koreans aren't usually in the business of lying. So, what does this mean for the Ukraine War? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-the-koreans-are-coming-to-the-ukraine-war

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Following my video on Iran's attacks from the other day, I feel it necessary to explore the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran's oil sector and the affect it would have on global markets. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/impacts-of-an-israeli-strike-on-irans-oil-sector

Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Already joined the Patreon? You can also donate directly to MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/ Sanctions are not a new strategy to fight the Russians, but this round could be different... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-russian-sanctions-are-making-global-finance-spicy

Click here to join Patreon and help us donate to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon Already joined the Patreon? You can also donate directly to MedShare here: https://www.medshare.org/ Russia has attacked three civilian ships carrying grain in Ukraine's southwest maritime corridor. This marks Russia's first major attack on commercial shipping, and a significant escalation of this war. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-russia-strikes-three-commercial-ships

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Back to the picket lines we go...this time with the longshoreman. Ports across the East and Gulf Coasts of the US will impacted by the strike, disrupting nearly two-thirds of the imports and exports by water. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/longshoreman-on-strike-us-ports-get-shut-down

This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Mexico's newly elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is settling into her new digs. Despite her qualifications and experience, will her leadership actually look all that different from former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/if-you-think-mexicos-new-government-is-a-problem-wait-until-you-see-its-solutions

Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Our focus turns toward China today, specifically at the technological struggles facing the Chinese military and manufacturing industry. And yes, we're starting with the nuclear submarine that sank in port... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-navy-nukes-tech-and-politics

If you're looking for your daily does of Peter Zeihan...you're not going to find here this week. You'll have to head over to Patreon in order to get early access to all the videos, newsletters and exclusive content. (or you can wait for it to be released a week later on YouTube) Click here to join Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/peterzeihan

Today, 9/30 is the last day before we officially launch the Patreon page! If you want to continue receiving timely videos and newsletters (as well as some exclusive extras) every weekday, then head on over and join the fun on Patreon. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Russia has struggled to maintain a credible "red line" (referring to the point at which Putin will push the shiny red button) for quite a while now. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-threats-deterrence-and-the-war-of-numbers

Click the link to join Peter Zeihan's Patreon for early access to videos and newsletters, exclusive access to live Q&As and news digests, and more: https://www.patreon.com/peterzeihan Hurricane Helene is heading toward the Big Bend of Florida and was set to make landfall around midnight last night. As a Category 3 storm, Helene is poised to make quite the splash, so here's what to keep an eye on. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/hurricane-helene-patreon-info

Click the link to join Peter Zeihan's Patreon for early access to videos and newsletters, exclusive access to live Q&As and news digests, and more: https://www.patreon.com/peterzeihanThe US national debt is so high that it has exceeded 100% of GDP. We're talking over $35 trillion. Nice little chunk of change there. So, what led us to this point and how do we move forward?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-national-debt-kill-the-us-economy-patreon-launch

Things are heating up between Israel and Hezbollah, with both sides launching attacks on the other. This situation has intensified since Israel became a bit more sensitive to the Middle East’s normal methods of negotiations-via-explosions following the conflict in Gaza. Let's break this all down. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/defanging-hezbollah

The Sinaloa Cartel, once the dominant organized crime group in Mexico, is turning on itself. This is just another notch along the downward spiral of the Sinaloa Cartel since the arrest of El Chapo years back. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-civil-war-of-the-sinaloa-cartel

Ukraine has successfully attacked several major Russian ammunition depots, with explosions detectable hundreds of miles away. These strikes suggest Ukraine's war strategy is evolving... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/new-ukrainian-weapons-hit-russia-where-it-hurts

Its easy to sit up in an ivory tower and say immigration is always good because of the economic benefits; however, turning a blind eye to the social implications of immigration would be irresponsible in a well-rounded discussion. Here's what Canada and Germany have going on: Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/immigration-social-costs-vs-economic-benefits

If you haven't heard by now, a sophisticated Israeli operation targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon was carried out on September 17. While Israel has not officially claimed this attack, it appears to be the next chapter in the rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-you-should-ditch-your-pager-hezbollah-operative-edition

The US has become largely self-sufficient when it comes to oil, and it was never really reliant upon Saudi oil in the first place. Back in the day, the US formed a relationship with Saudi Arabia not for itself, but instead to provide US allies with oil during globalization. Times are changing and so is this relationship, so what does the future of Saudi Arabia look like? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-saudi-arabia

The most recent hurricane that tore through the Gulf of Mexico has sent ripples through the insurance industry thanks to all the property damage, but what will its impact on the energy sector look like? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/hurricanes-in-the-gulf-offshore-oil-and-the-energy-sector

Taiwan has positioned itself as the dominant player in the semiconductor industry, but what would happen if a conflict with China broke out? Well, if semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities are top of mind, than sure, this should be of concern (but you should also be worried about the thousands of companies and locations that are nowhere near Taiwan that make up the vast bulk of the supply chain). Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-does-the-future-hold-for-taiwan-and-semiconductors

Following its discovery in the 70s, the Cantarell oil field enabled Mexico to become a major oil producer. Decades of lax management and complacency by Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, together with the declining output of the Cantarell, has left the country with serious production problems. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-self-inflicted-downfall-of-mexican-energy

German regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia saw some of the country's far-right parties, including the Alternative for Germany, perform quite well. Don't sound the alarm bells yet, but this is yet another reminder of the ongoing economic and political issues in Germany. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-far-right-take-over-germany-again

Today we're looking at the importance of Telegram. No, we're not talking about the thing a telegraph sends. We're talking about the messaging platform created by Pavel Durov that's causing quite the stir as of late. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/telegram-and-the-limits-of-freedom-of-speech-on-social-media

Should people be able to say whatever they hell they want on social media? Brazil doesn't think so, at least when it comes to public misinformation. While most social media platforms have bent the knee, Musk and Twitter (now X) have held out. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-freedom-of-speech-extend-to-social-media-part-i

Today's video is fueled by Scott Base Vineyard in Cromwell, New Zealand. After all of the time I've spent in New Zealand, this is far and away my favorite winery. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-geopolitics-of-wine

Globalization led to the rise of China as a manufacturing powerhouse, since finding the lowest cost producer was the priority. However, deglobalization, coupled with China's demographic decline and aging workforce, has both eroded that competitive advantage and changed everyone’s priorities about cost. So, what happens next? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-will-soon-lose-the-title-of-worlds-manufacturer

Globalization has allowed us (meaning humans as a species) to make some of the worst lands farmable, inhabitable, and even prosperous. But what happens to global food exports when globalization ends? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/deglobalizations-impact-on-global-food-exports

Although climate change models are still evolving, historical climate data shows a clear warming trend. So, let's discuss the impacts of climate change, specifically who will be affected the most and who might even benefit from it. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-climate-change-be-the-death-of-wheat

If the green transition is ever going to work, it needs to happen everywhere. So, don't get your drawers in a bunch when you see green energy funds from the Inflation Reduction Act being invested in Red States. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-should-red-states-get-greentech-investments

*This video was recorded prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip in July. Guyana is a country we don't hear about too often, but its rise as an oil producer has earned it some air time. In particular, we'll be looking at the implications this carries for global oil markets. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-player-in-global-oil-markets-guyana

*This video was recorded in May of 2024. If you've read my book "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning" then you're well aware of the US stepping away from the Global Order. But what does life look for other countries once that happens? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-is-the-united-states-role-in-the-new-global-order

As a result of the power struggle between the two governments in Libya, roughly 70% oil production in the country has been shut down. This could significantly impact global oil supplies and is a glimpse at the instability within Libya. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/libyan-oil-gets-shut-down-over-government-duel

The Houthis attacked an oil tanker that had been previously abandoned in the Red Sea. They denotated charges, but only managed to start some fires (as of now). This lackluster attack isn't the scariest thing, but it does highlight the growing dangers of commercial shipping in the region. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-houthis-are-still-attacking-ships-in-the-red-sea

Sure, the Cubans and the Americans have some history, but who doesn't? If both sides can let that water pass under the bridge, what will Cuba's role in the North American system look like moving forward? *This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-cuba-integrate-with-north-america

There are lots of moving parts in the Ukraine War right now, so let's do a little recap of everything that's going on. There are four big ones... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-war-in-ukraine

*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. China and Russia seemingly enjoy having their fingers in the African pie, but what are they doing there? And should we be worried? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-are-china-and-russia-doing-in-africa

Ukraine has made a significant push into Russian territory, capturing roughly 1,000 square kilometers within the Kursk province. The Ukrainians also destroyed a handful of bridges that will hinder Russia's logistical support for Belgorod and complicate Russian reinforcement efforts. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-pushes-into-russia-yet-nukes-didnt-fly

We're going to group therapy today, and on the docket for discussion is what makes Americans so difficult to understand? Not in a weird accent kind of way, but in a "why are we the way that we are" kind of way. *This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/lifes-greatest-mystery-understanding-americans

*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. The Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - are taking one step closer to the Europeans with their upcoming electrical system swap. This switch from Russian to European electrical standards marks a significant shift for these nations. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-baltics-ditch-russia-for-european-integration

*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. The US Navy and its fleet of carriers (and super-carriers) haven't had much of a challenge on the seas since WWII. But of all things, it might be some low-tech jet ski bombs that change the way the world's navies operate. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/could-jet-ski-bombs-change-the-way-navies-operate

*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. Unless you want to start buying your guacamole in dime bags, the US better start looking for some new avocado "dealers". Yes, we're talking about the cartels’ involvement in the avocado supply chains in Mexico. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-mexican-cartels-are-double-dipping-in-the-guacamole

*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. How would you feel if you had a beautiful view of the coastline, but could only ever get out by the beach once per week? Well, now that employers can mandate a six-day work week in Greece, many are faced with that exact problem. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-the-six-day-work-week-save-greece

Myanmar doesn't often catch my attention, but with the ongoing civil war, I figured it was time to throw it into the mix. After years of civil unrest, is there a clear path to stability? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/myanmars-bleak-future-civil-war-and-ethnic-strife

There's no shortage of news coming out of the Middle East, but today we're going to look at the rising tensions between Israel and Iran and Iranian proxy Hezbollah. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tensions-rise-in-the-middle-east-but-dont-expect-war

The situation in Bangladesh has worsened, forcing the Prime Minister to flee the country. Let's recap what led us to this point and look at what the future might hold for Bangladesh and India. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/protests-cause-a-mass-exodus-of-bangladesh

It's time that we discuss the situation at the US - Mexico border. What's going on and how is it all going to shake out? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-border-crossings-is-mexico-the-solution

A forest fire near my home cut my backpacking trip short, but it did allow me to record some new videos. So, today we'll be looking at some recent developments in Ukraine. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-ukraine-claim-the-skies-and-destroy-russian-air-defenses

*This video was recorded before Peter’s backpacking trip in mid-July. Lesson of the day: if the Chinese government starts censoring a topic, it's probably time to start looking into that. Today, we'll be examining China's economy heading into 'garbage time'. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-garbage-time-of-history-chinas-economic-decline

*This video was recorded in May of 2024. We've all stared at the stars thinking about the different ways the Ukraine War could end, but could a coup or revolution in Russia be the way it goes down? It sounds great, but there's quite a few obstacles in the way. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/could-a-russian-revolution-end-the-ukraine-war

*This video was recorded in June of 2024. We're talking about a different kind of war today - Trade Wars. Specifically, we'll be looking at attempts by the US and EU to limit Chinese involvement in their electric vehicle markets. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chinas-tariff-wars-the-eu-opens-a-new-front

I'm back home from Yosemite on a brief intermission to my summer backpacking trips, and wanted to issue an update on the Mexican Cartels. Specifically, we're talking about the arrest of Sinaloa leader, El Mayo. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-crack-in-the-north-american-drug-war

*This video was recorded in mid-July, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. As the baby boomers age into retirement and Gen Z fails to satisfy the gaping hole left in the labor market, will artificial intelligence be able to help mitigate some of the fallout? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-ai-replace-those-retiring-boomers

*This video was recorded in mid-July, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. I've been asked to address the claim that China has surpassed the US as a nuclear power. On paper, China might have the upper hand, but that doesn't always translate to real life. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-chinese-nuclear-tech-better-than-the-us

*This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. There are reports coming out of Ukraine indicating that there has been a sharp uptick in Russian artillery losses. This data isn't confirmed, but it could be a good sign for Ukraine. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-targets-russias-most-important-weapon-artillery

*This video was recorded in May of 2024. The potential of dragging the US into a major conflict is top of mind for a lot of Americans, but what would it actually take to get us there? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-the-us-looking-for-a-war

The conflict in Gaza has been raging on for nearly 300 days, and there is no end in sight. However, Israel is heavily reliant upon American tech and weapons and that relationship could be changing. *This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-gaza-conflict-and-shifting-politics-in-israel

Today, we'll be looking at the recent European Commission presidential election and its broader implications for the Europeans. *This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip (and prior to Biden leaving the race). Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/yes-we-have-to-follow-elections-in-europe-too

There have been significant protests in Bangladesh over a law reserving a significant portion of government jobs for supporters of the 1971 independence revolution and their descendants. The job quota has been suspended, but protests continue. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/major-protests-break-out-in-bangladesh

Everyone wants to know if the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is going to impact the outcome of the election. I hate to break it to you, but no one knows. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/stop-obsessing-over-the-polls-and-take-a-hike-instead

The Republican Party is undergoing some evolutions at the moment, moving away from many of its traditional stances. This is part of a broader cycle in which American political parties shift and realign every few decades. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-changing-republican-party

Well, it looks like the Germans are going to be celebrating Christmas in July. That's due to the US and Germany's decision made at the NATO conference to redeploy American mid-range weaponry to Germany. And yes, this hasn't happened since the Cold War for…historic reasons. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-cold-war-missiles-return-to-germany-thanks-to-russia

The EU was established to promote unity and peace, but times have changed and priorities have shifted. So, what does the future of the European Union look like and how does France fit into the mix? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-the-french-lead-the-eu-into-the-future

On Saturday, July 13, there was an attempted assassination of Donald Trump. I'm not here to give you the play-by-play that you can get from the news, instead I want to put this incident into context of the broader political and economic shifts. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/assassination-attempt-and-a-changing-world

After the first round of European Parliament elections, the French far-right (represented by the National Rally) had a great showing. President Macron wasn't too happy with that outcome, so he called snap elections to give his party a second shot at capturing a majority. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-should-europe-worry-about-the-french-elections

Next up on our list of important elections around the globe is the Iranian presidential elections. We'll be looking at Iran's new President-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, and what his victory might mean for the country. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/irans-president-elect-sparks-change-but-how-much

In case you've been buried neck deep in US political news, there are some fairly important elections taking place across the globe. For the first country in our little global election coverage, we'll be looking at the United Kingdom. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/uk-elections-starting-over

I get a lot of "what if..." and "what happens next..." style questions and most of them suck, but today's question takes us down a fairly interesting rabbit hole - what happens to China if Chairman Xi Jinping dies or steps down? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-after-xi

While the Italians may have mastered the arts of pasta, wine and gelato, they should have been spending less time in the kitchen and more in...another room. That's right, we're looking at the demographic problems facing Italy, and Genoa will be our example. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-genoa-is-graying-italys-demographic-decline

For all the hungover Americans out there, I heard the best cure after a long day of drinking is to talk about inflation. Well, maybe it will just make your head hurt more, but you still have the weekend ahead of you to relax... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-federal-reserve-and-its-inflation-target

If you watched the presidential debate last week, I'm sure you're really, really excited for the election this year! Since so many of you wanted me to talk about this fever dream we're living in, I figured we'd do it on Independence Day. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-senior-home-showdown-delusional-biden-vs-demented-trump

Despite most countries in the West wanting to rid themselves of any involvement with the Russians, the oil revenues continue to flow into Russian pockets. So why haven't Western countries dropped the hammer on Russian oil exports? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-west-cant-quit-russian-oil

The Israeli Supreme Court just ruled that the ultra-Orthodox community will no longer get exemption from military service. This addresses a number of long-standing issues, but it could spell trouble for Netanyahu's political career. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/no-more-military-exemption-for-israeli-ultra-orthodox

In the post-Cold War world, France, Germany and Poland concocted the Weimar Triangle as a way to foster cooperation amongst the three countries. The trio has weakened over the years - due to differing national priorities - but Russia's invasion of Ukraine might necessitate getting the gang back together. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strengthen-the-weimar-triangle

In the post-Cold War world, France, Germany and Poland concocted the Weimar Triangle as a way to foster cooperation amongst the three countries. The trio has weakened over the years - due to differing national priorities - but Russia's invasion of Ukraine might necessitate getting the gang back together. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strengthen-the-weimar-triangle

China has been the global manufacturing hub for decades, but what happens if that goes away? If and when China experiences a significant collapse, someone will have some big shoes to fill, but who can do it? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-manufacturing-where-and-why

Europe has been taking a beating lately, from economic issues to demographic problems, but there's a new one on the horizon. When the Ukraine War wraps up, what will the European energy situation look like? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-europeans-are-having-some-gas-problems

If there's anything Putin's good at, its pressing the West's buttons...and his latest trip to North Korea is no exception. However, by signing a new defense pact with Kim Jong Un, Putin might inadvertanly gain Ukraine a new supporter. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/backfire-putins-north-korean-joyride Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/

There are only a few days left in our MedShare donation matching drive for the month of June. $100,000 in donations will be matched this month to our chosen charity partner, MedShare International. Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/

Last week, I talked about how Ukraine has been targeting Russian air infrastructure to prepare for the arrival of their F-16s. Well, Ukraine launched a rocket attack on occupied Crimea and destroyed some air defenses and one of Russia's deep space satellite communication stations. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russians-in-space

Micro-States like Monaco and San Marino aren't often included in major geopolitical discussions, but every so often they get called up to the big leagues. Next up to the plate: San Marino. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/exploring-the-geopolitics-of-micro-states

With Russian President Vladimir Putin heading to Vietnam, some American security experts are getting concerned about the future of the US-Vietnam relationship. To understand why the Vietnamese are working with Russia, we need to take a quick history lesson. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/mr-putin-goes-to-hanoi Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/

If you ask a fifth grader what the key to being a good spy is, they would likely respond with some variation of being sneaky or concealing your identity. Well, on today's episode of "Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader", we're placing Russian Spies in the hot seat. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-and-the-changing-nature-of-the-spy-game Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/

If you don't want to start your day with beautiful beach views and economic forecasts, you may want to skip the video. Today we'll be discussing recent changes to the US economy and what future impacts might look like. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strong-american-growth-and-something-to-worry-about Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/

Ukraine is gearing up for one of its most important offensives to date, but what makes this one so different from the rest? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-f-16s-offensives-and-abject-humiliation

For years I’ve warned that a war between Russia and Ukraine was inevitable, but why didn't Putin just play the nuke card? As an add-on, we'll also be touching on some new Russian alliances that could rub the US the wrong way. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-did-russia-choose-invasion-over-nukes

The recent European elections yielded some significant gains for hard-right parties in a number of countries. Today, we'll be focusing on Germany, Italy, and France, and whether these shifts are game-changers or more political minutia. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/major-european-powers-lean-right-in-recent-elections

After years of mismanagement and corruption, Venezuela may have finally reached its tipping point. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-impending-collapse-of-venezuela

During my European travels, I've received a handful of questions regarding the lack of support for Ukraine coming from Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary. So, let's address why these countries are holding out amid the Russian invasion. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/austria-slovakia-and-hungary-ignore-ukraine Donate to MedShare: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/

We've got a few more elections to talk about today, and who knows, maybe the US might even learn something from South Africa and India. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/elections-in-south-africa-and-india

I know there's plenty of issues with the American political system, but let's take a break from all that and talk about European politics for the day. Given the ongoing European Parliament elections, let’s look at the far-right’s footholds in Europe. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-rise-of-the-european-far-right

Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/ I’m pleased to announce our donation matching drive for the month of June. We will be matching up to $50,000 in donations this month to our chosen charity partner, MedShare International. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/announcing-our-june-medshare-donation-match

The most recent Mexican elections have resulted in the victory of Mexico's first female -and- Jewish leader, Claudia Sheinbaum. She will be succeeding current populist President AMLO, but how much change will this actually bring? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-mexicos-new-president-just-a-puppet-for-amlo

It’s time for an update on the situation in the Red Sea and what the Houthis have been up to as of late. Spoiler alert: most of the ships are taking the longer route around Africa, but there's a handful still navigating this region. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/danger-in-the-red-sea-who-shall-the-houthis-let-pass

There’s no shortage of things to worry about in this world, but there’s a few things that live rent free in my mind. On June 5th at 12:00 pm EST, I’ll be opening up Pandora’s Box and sharing my biggest fears in regards to the American economic system. Register for the Webinar Here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_joptrlQGTlmEQ-oAiVlcTA#/registration

From the beginning of the Ukraine War, the Western nations have placed restrictions on how their weapons donations to Ukraine can be used. Specifically, Western nations have been concerned that if Ukraine targets Russian forces within Russia, escalation may be unavoidable. But recent events have forced a change of calculus in the West. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-opens-up-on-belgorod

Well, we've all heard the news at this point. Trump is a FELON, after being convicted on 34 counts of financial fraud related to hiding his affair. So, can Trump spin this "publicity" in a positive light or will it bite him in the ass come November? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-former-president-trump-make-felonies-great-again

The Western world is beginning to entertain the conversation over the use of Western weapons targeting Russian systems within Russia. There are a handful of countries that have issued their support, but will it be enough? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-west-greenlight-strikes-inside-russia

Register for the Risk List Webinar: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_joptrlQGTlmEQ-oAiVlcTA#/registration We're looking at the Ukraine War and the increase of drone assaults on Russia. Specifically, we'll be looking at the attacks on container radars used for aircraft and ballistic missile detection. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-drone-attacks-on-russian-container-radars

If you're planning a coast-to-coast road trip through the US, you might want to wait until the Biden administration can liquidate the northeast gasoline reserves, here's why... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-biden-admin-liquidates-northeast-gas-reserves

I've avoided talking about the Israel and Gaza conflict as much a possible (given that there's no favorable outcomes for anyone involved), but some recent changes have forced my hand. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-much-extended-agony-of-israel-and-gaza

It's no surprise that the French like to be "involved" in as many places as possible, but what's going on with the current rebellion in the French protectorate of New Caledonia? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/france-and-azerbaijan-fighting-over-new-caledonia

Today we'll be looking at why the French are considering sending military aid to Armenia...and no, its not because they're looking to swap croissant and nazook recipes. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-are-the-french-getting-involved-with-armenia

We've got some more interview style questions for you today! We'll be focusing on China, specifically looking at the potential for Chinese energy independence and if any countries surrounding China should be worried about an invasion/resource grab. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-is-the-future-of-chinese-expansion-and-energy

Other than a slight bump in sales during the holidays (shoutout to all the naughty kids), coal has been on the decline for quite a while now. With more environmentally friendly alternatives surging into the spotlight, how does coal fit into the energy framework? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-us-is-ditching-coal-as-an-energy-source

I've started hearing rumblings about the American power grid and vulnerability to cyber attacks. Sure there's been hiccups throughout the years, but this one isn't keeping me up at night. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-dont-worry-about-the-us-power-grid

Iranian State media has confirmed the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi May 19th, following the crash of his helicopter over Iranian Azerbaijan. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iranian-president-ebrahim-raisi-is-dead

Everyone is talking about Iran's potential development of an active nuclear weapon. Before anyone gets too frightened at the prospect of this announcement, let me give you some food for thought. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/does-iran-actually-have-a-nuclear-weapon

On Wednesday May 15, there was an assassination attempt on Slovakia's Prime Minister, Robert Fico. At the time of recording, the PM was still in critical condition and there's no clear political group or foreign entity claiming responsibility. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/assassination-attempt-on-slovakias-prime-minister

We've got another question for our Ask Peter series today: What are the long-term impacts to Western interests of the recent political upheaval in West Africa/the Sahel, especially given the break in security partnerships with the United States and Paris? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-politics-and-peace-in-west-africa

Some hefty tariffs have just been placed on many Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar panels, and more. This is an attempt to prevent China from dominating industries that the US wants to develop. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-us-places-huge-tariffs-on-chinese-imports

Well, I hate to say it, but Putin might actually be making a solid strategic move by removing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from office. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/putin-removes-defense-minister

We've got some new players in the global weapons trade, and let's just say that I prefer the old gun runners. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/adventures-in-gun-running-iran

Who doesn't love spending their morning trying to understand what the Federal Reserve is doing? Oh, no takers? Well, let's at least look at inflation trends and where I expect interest rates to go. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/much-higher-interest-rates-for-much-much-longer

Well, it looks like there's something in the water in the US and it ain't little blue pills. The recent US Census data shows a 40-year low in the birth rate - about 1.6 per woman. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-birth-rates-plummet-to-40-year-low

The Japanese have looked into their crystal ball and figured out that a close relationship with the Americans is the only way forward. Before Japan is welcomed in with open arms, they'll have to prove their worth...Register for The State of Global Energy Webinar: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_zVirSodfSYyFoKNFiA6VpA#/registration Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-japan-needs-a-us-alliance

We're finally seeing signs of life in Congress with the recent progress made on the establishment of a domestic uranium supply chain. This move aims to cut dependence on the Russians - who dominate global uranium processing. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-nuclear-supply-chain

Register for The State of Global Energy Webinar here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_zVirSodfSYyFoKNFiA6VpA#/registration The newest Chinese aircraft carrier, the Fujian, has officially hit the seas. This a major development for the Chinese Navy, but still falls short when compared to with advanced counterparts (i.e. the US). Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/webinar-the-new-chinese-carriers

The Russians are playing dress up with their tanks and it might reveal where the future of military conflict is heading. Okay, "dress up" might not be the right term, but just google a picture of the Russian turtle tanks to get an idea of what I'm talking about. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/warfare-innovations-russias-turtle-tanks

A little over a year ago, we discussed a potential ban on TikTok in the US. Well, President Biden finally signed the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act", which would ban TikTok or force its parent company, ByteDance, to sell it. Full Video and Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-tiktok-ban-is-almost-here

Over the weekend, some Texans had a not-so-friendly reminder that their power grid doesn't work well under stress. This is just one of many outages and electricity challenges that Texas will face in the coming years. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/power-outages-in-texas-and-growing-energy-demands

The Japanese Navy is getting a face lift with the conversion of the Izumo-class destroyers into small supercarriers capable of holding F-35s (compliments of the US). Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/japans-navy-gets-teeth

RFK II has a presidential name, but I don't think he'll be finding himself in that position this go around. However, he does have the opportunity to cause some problems for Trump in the process. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-rfk-jr-shake-up-the-2024-presidential-election

As the ice begins to melt in the Arctic, will the Russians be able to establish a shipping route to the north? While establishing a northern sea route is possible, it won't be the gold mine its been made out to be. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-will-the-russians-create-a-great-northern-sea-route