"This feels like 1996": Why a16z's Martin Casado believes the AI boom still has years to run (General Partner)
"This feels like 1996": Why a16z's Martin Casado believes the AI boom still has years to run (General Partner)  
Podcast: The Generalist
Published On: Tue Oct 07 2025
Description: Martin Casado has lived through multiple tech waves—first as a founder, now as a16z’s leading voice on AI and infrastructure. He helped pioneer software-defined networking, then moved from academia to entrepreneurship, and today backs founders building at the frontier of technology as a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz. In this conversation, Martin shares his unique perspective on the AI boom, his market-first investment philosophy, and why he believes we’re still in the early days of AI’s impact.We explore:* Martin’s path from game engines and simulations to investing at Andreessen Horowitz* Why Martin believes we’re only in “1996” of the AI boom cycle with years to run before any bubble* Why Martin approaches investing “from markets in” rather than “from companies out”* Why the AI coding market represents a potential $3 trillion opportunity* The transformation of Andreessen Horowitz from a small generalist partnership to a specialized 600-person organization* The concerning dominance of Chinese companies in open source AI models* Why Martin thinks AGI discussions encourage “lazy thinking” and obscure meaningful conversations* How World Labs is solving the 3D representation problem that could unlock robotics, VR, and more—Thank you to the partners who make this possibleAuth0: Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone.Brex: The banking solution for startups.Persona: Trusted identity verification for any use case.—Timestamps(00:00) Intro(04:50) Martin’s early career(08:35) Martin’s shift from academia to founding his own company during an economic downturn(11:25) The story behind Martin joining Andreessen Horowitz(17:55) Ben Horowitz’s most impactful advice(19:49) How Andreessen Horowitz has transformed since 2016(22:20) Why product experience matters more than technical prowess for infrastructure investing(26:26) Martin’s market-first investment philosophy(28:39) Andreessen Horowitz’s framework for assessing founders and startups(33:14) Why Martin thinks Hock Tan may be the best CEO today(35:18) The controversy around non-consensus investing in early stages(38:42) Why today’s AI boom reminds Martin of the mid-’90s tech environment(44:38) How today’s AI boom differs from 2021’s tech bubble(47:10) Why the promise of AI in organizations remains largely unrealized(50:29) How Martin uses AI for coding and as a reading thought partner(52:56) Why Martin doesn’t use AI for writing(53:24) Martin’s interest in Eisenhower and historical parallels to today(55:33) Two equally important paths for AI’s future(58:33) Why Cursor stood out as the leader in AI coding tools(01:01:14) The lack of inherent defensibility in AI and how to build moats(01:03:30) World Labs’ mission to transform 2D images into 3D environments(01:06:42) 3D’s emerging use cases and why the VR market may expand(01:11:50) Why Martin isn’t an “AGI guy” and how the term erodes conversation quality(01:14:59) How seeing AI as a continuum creates room for future products and investment(01:16:28) The security and regulatory challenges of Chinese open-source AI models(01:19:23) Final meditationsFollow Martin CasadoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martincasado/X: https://x.com/martin_casado—Resources and episode mentionsBooks* The Weirdest People in the World: https://www.amazon.com/WEIRDest-People-World-Psychologically-Particularly/dp/1250800072/* The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World: https://www.amazon.com/Beginning-Infinity-Explanations-Transform-World/dp/0143121359* Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications: https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/B0CD8X5YC5* The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178* The End of History and the Last Man: https://www.amazon.com/End-History-Last-Man/dp/0743284550People* Andy Rachleff on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rachleff/* Ben Horowitz on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/behorowitz/* Marc Andreessen on X: https://x.com/pmarca* Mike Moritz on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmoritz/* John Doerr on X: https://x.com/johndoerr* Peter Thiel on X: https://x.com/peterthiel* Hock Tan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hock-tan/* Dwight D. Eisenhower: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dwight_D._Eisenhower* Ben Mildenhall on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-mildenhall-86b4739b/* Christoph Lassner on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christoph-lassner-475a669b/* Justin Johnson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-johnson-41b43664/* Yann LeCun on X: https://x.com/ylecunOther resources* Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com/* R.I.P. Good Times: https://articles.sequoiacap.com/rip-good-times* Martin’s post on X about non consensus investing: https://x.com/martin_casado/status/1959485916894167162* Terra Incognita: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_incognita* Beware the AI Experimentation Trap: https://hbr.org/2025/08/beware-the-ai-experimentation-trap* Cursor: https://cursor.com/* Grok: https://x.ai/grok* Warren Court: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Court#Historically_significant_decisions* CodeX: https://openai.com/codex/* Genie3: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/genie-3-a-new-frontier-for-world-models/* Midjourney: https://www.midjourney.com/* WorldLabs: https://www.worldlabs.ai/* Suno: https://suno.com/* GitHub Copilot: https://github.com/features/copilot* SB 1047: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_and_Secure_Innovation_for_Frontier_Artificial_Intelligence_Models_Act* Siesta: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siesta—Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email jordan@penname.co. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.generalist.com/subscribe