Prediction Markets: All Bets Are War
Podcast: What A DayPublished On: Fri Apr 10 2026
Description: From the moment the U.S. and Israel launched strikes in Iran at the end of February, several people have been profiting from them because of extremely well-timed bets they made on the prediction market website Polymarket. In March, Polymarket barred trades based on, “stolen confidential information.” And yet people appear to still be making trades using insider information. Just this week, a group of newly created accounts bet correctly on the U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire on April 7th. Saahil Desai, senior editor at The Atlantic, joins the show to discuss how prediction markets are capitalizing on war.And in headlines, the White House denies reports of a schism between the Trump administration and the Vatican, humanitarian groups say the ceasefire in Gaza is failing, and a new analysis finds out just how much Democrats are saying the f-word on social media.Show Notes: Check out Saahil's work – https://tinyurl.com/4up5v7ha Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday
The note was deleted
The note was saved
Your message was sent