“AI 2027” — Top Superforecaster's Imminent Doom Scenario
Podcast: Doom DebatesPublished On: Tue Apr 15 2025
Description: AI 2027, a bombshell new paper by the AI Futures Project, is a highly plausible scenario of the next few years of AI progress. I like this paper so much that I made a whole episode about it.00:00 Overview of AI 202705:13 2025: Stumbling Agents16:23 2026: Advanced Agents21:49 2027: The Intelligence Explosion29:13 AI's Initial Exploits and OpenBrain's Secrecy30:41 Agent-3 and the Rise of Superhuman Engineering37:05 The Creation and Deception of Agent-544:56 The Race Scenario: Humanity's Downfall48:58 The Slowdown Scenario: A Glimmer of Hope53:49 Final ThoughtsShow NotesThe website: https://ai-2027.comScott Alexander’s blog: https://astralcodexten.comDaniel Kokotajlo’s previous predictions from 2021 about 2026: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-likeWatch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligencePauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.infoJoin the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://doomdebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
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