This Top Economist's P(Doom) Just Shot Up 10x! Noah Smith Returns To Explain His Update
This Top Economist's P(Doom) Just Shot Up 10x! Noah Smith Returns To Explain His Update  
Podcast: Doom Debates!
Published On: Tue Mar 17 2026
Description: Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith!00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™00:09:59 — Unpacking Noah's Update00:16:56 — Why Incidents of Rogue AI Lower P(Doom)00:20:04 — Noah's Mainline Doom Scenario: Much Worse Than COVID-1900:23:29 — Society Responds After Growing Pains00:29:25 — Agentic AI Contributed to Noah's Position00:31:35 — Should Yudkowsky Get Bayesian Credit?00:33:59 — Are We Communicating the Right Way with Policymakers?00:40:16 — Finding Common Ground on AI Policy00:47:07 — Wrap-Up: People Need to Be More ScaredLinksDoom Debate with Noah Smith — Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwmJ-OnK2I4Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinionNoah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blogDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe