14-Year-Old Forecaster Challenges My P(Doom) — Eli Goldfine
14-Year-Old Forecaster Challenges My P(Doom) — Eli Goldfine  
Podcast: Doom Debates!
Published On: Tue Aug 11 2026
Description: Eli Goldfine is an unusually thoughtful 14-year-old podcast host who’s rapidly becoming an authoritative voice in the prediction market space.In this unique episode, Eli brings a critical yet open-minded approach to the topic of AI doom that we older folks could learn from.We cover what it's like to grow up in the AGI era, and Eli's hobbies which include reading rationalist bloggers, betting on prediction markets, vibe coding with Claude, and developing a software startup for astronomers.In our debate, Eli expects superintelligence by 2032, but argues P(Doom) can't be estimated. I claim you can't opt out of Bayesian epistemology. All aboard the Doom Train! 🚂Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bqk5vqpzG_oTimestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:01:07 — Introducing Eli Goldfine00:08:31 — Interviewing Robin Hanson at Manifest00:10:55 — The Supercycle Podcast00:14:37 — Eli's Betting Market Scandal00:16:49 — Will Eli Graduate High School?00:18:27 — Decentralized Telescope Software00:26:50 — Vibe Coding Without CompSci Basics00:32:08 — Robin Hanson, Futarchy, MetaDAO00:40:56 — What's Your P(Doom)?™00:46:32 — Liron Defends His 50% P(Doom)00:51:00 — Should P(Doom) Inform Policy?00:59:16 — What's Your P(Bloom)?01:03:04 — Pascal's Wager for Accelerationists01:04:04 — Donation Drive01:11:22 — Are E/ACCs Incredibly Dumb?01:13:42 — How Powerful will ASI Become?01:16:20 — Predicting ASI by 203201:23:56 — Let's Ride the Doom Train™01:35:26 — Orthogonality, Culture, and Moral Realism01:44:39 — Can Safety Keep Pace with Capabilities?01:49:12 — Debating Instrumental Convergence01:54:40 — Culture, Laws, and the Singleton Scenario01:59:53 — Ricardo's Law Won't Save Us02:03:32 — The Case for Racing China02:05:40 — Wrap-Up & Ideological Turing Test02:10:36 — Outro from Conductor OriDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe