Gary Marcus vs. Liron Shapira — AI Doom Debate
Gary Marcus vs. Liron Shapira — AI Doom Debate  
Podcast: Doom Debates
Published On: Thu May 15 2025
Description: Prof. Gary Marcus is a scientist, bestselling author and entrepreneur, well known as one of the most influential voices in AI. He is Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neuroscience at NYU.  He was founder and CEO of Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning company acquired by Uber in 2016.Gary co-authored the 2019 book, Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust, and the 2024 book, Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works for Us. He played an important role in the 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing on Oversight of AI, testifying with Sam Altman.In this episode, Gary and I have a lively debate about whether P(doom) is approximately 50%, or if it’s less than 1%!00:00 Introducing Gary Marcus02:33 Gary’s AI Skepticism09:08 The Human Brain is a Kluge23:16 The 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing28:46 What’s Your P(Doom)™44:27 AI Timelines51:03 Is Superintelligence Real?01:00:35 Humanity’s Immune System01:12:46 Potential for Recursive Self-Improvement01:26:12 AI Catastrophe Scenarios01:34:09 Defining AI Agency01:37:43 Gary’s AI Predictions01:44:13 The NYTimes Obituary Test01:51:11 Recap and Final Thoughts01:53:35 Liron’s Outro01:55:34 Eliezer Yudkowsky’s New Book!01:59:49 AI Doom Concept of the DayShow NotesGary’s Substack — https://garymarcus.substack.comGary’s Twitter — https://x.com/garymarcusIf Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.comCome to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.onlineHope to see you there!Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligencePauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.infoJoin the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://doomdebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe