This week, we unpack rising market euphoria, sector rotations and why consumers are suddenly back in focus. We also dig into Fed constraints, Japan’s endgame, Bitcoin waking up, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_  Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp  Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vs0cYl__KxtoSrvj2Gs9bKGQ2SedlY1g/view?usp=sharing  — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:28) Markets Too Hot & Sector Rotations (12:17) Grayscale Ad (12:55) Trump’s Shift To Main St. (25:06) Fed, Rates & Tariffs (30:06) Grayscale Ad (30:52) CapEx & Credit Financing (35:31) Bitcoin Catching Up To Metals (43:19) Japan Endgame (48:39) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the silver trade and structural supply-demand imbalances in metals, AI acceleration and mismatch between CapEx & demand, and the breakdown of globalism. We also dig into the emerging political horseshoe, tariffs, and China’s trade leverage. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  26 Views For 2026: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/26-views-for-2026 The Silver Squeeze: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-silver-squeeze  __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Deep Dive Into The Silver Trade (10:23) Grayscale Ad (11:03) Trading The Death Of Globalism (18:21) Leaving Comparative Advantage (22:15) AI & Compute Acceleration Is Real (26:22) The Mismatch Between CapEx & Demand (30:07) Grayscale Ad (30:50) Leverage Levels & Risk (33:57) The Political Horseshoe (46:28) US vs China Capital Markets (49:15) China’s Trade Leverage (52:19) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss an insanely busy news cycle from geopolitics to surging metals and commodities, AI CapEx bottlenecks, and the SCOTUS tariff ruling. We also dig into the mega-cap rotation, political moves for midterms, and signs of economic re-acceleration shaping markets in 2026. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_  Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp  Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lp3pWEKx9j0ZHK4ci7Idq3AUfoGLL5O1/view?usp=sharing  — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade (07:52) Yield Curve Steepening (09:22) GDPNow & The Trade Deficit (13:42) Grayscale Ad (14:24) Economic Reacceleration (16:22) Market Rotation & K-Reversal (18:53) Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? (20:40) The New G2 World (22:56) Who’s Buying Bonds? (26:50) Grayscale Ad (27:40) Small Cap & Metals Rotation (30:43) Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle (37:26) SCOTUS Tariff Ruling (43:23) Making Moves For Midterms (46:34) Short Mag7 & Follow The Government (49:13) Commodities and Metals (51:02) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to break down why markets may be leaving the Fed-driven era behind, how private credit and bank balance sheets are becoming the real engine of growth, and what massive AI and onshoring investments mean for rates, risk, and the business cycle going forward. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) The Shift From The Fed To Private Credit (05:50) Push Vs Pull Demand For Credit (08:47) Grayscale Ad (09:25) Money Vs Credit (17:28) The Loop Of Spending & Savings (27:04) Grayscale Ad (27:51) Is The New Credit Flywheel A Policy Choice? (32:00) Impact On Investment & Consumption (35:19) Moving Back To A Traditional Business Cycle (38:52) Historical Disruptions Vs Today (44:05) Do Assets Go Higher In This New Regime? (53:04) Foreign Capital Flows & Trade Deficits (01:01:47) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to break down why the metals trade still feels early, whether oil finally catches a bid in 2026, why AI could be in its last innings, and what Bitcoin’s frustrating price action is quietly telling traders. We also unpack how to think about managing risk and Tony’s advice for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx TG Macro Conference: https://tgmacro.com/conference/ __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) TG MACRO Conference (04:38) 2025 Recap & 2026 Expectations (08:34) The Precious Metals Trade (14:29) Grayscale Ad (15:06) Where Does Oil Go In 2026? (17:08) Biggest 2026 Trading Themes (21:49) Metals & The Debasement Trade (23:02) Late Innings Of The AI Trade (24:46) Grayscale Ad (25:35) We’re Still In A Bull Market (30:11) Bitcoin’s Disappointment (33:06) Trading Bubbles (34:05) Advice For 2026 (36:01) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance  — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) 2025 Wins & Misses (07:48) What Drives Rates In 2026 (13:00) Grayscale Ad (13:37) Inflation Deep Dive (18:47) Labor Market & Housing (22:59) The K-Shaped Fed Cycle (29:50) Grayscale Ad (30:37) Fed Balance Sheet (35:06) Active Treasury Issuance (37:46) Equities In 2026 (45:20) Commodities Heating Up (48:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy! — Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Kuppy’s Feudalism Piece: https://pracap.com/feudalism/ — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Economic Feudalism (06:51) Why Is Wage Growth Bad? (09:14) Malice Or Negligence? (12:28) Grayscale Ad (13:06) Global Feudalism (18:27) How Does This Unwind? (22:07) No Uses For Productive Capital (25:46) Positioning For Political Revolution (31:05) Grayscale Ad (31:52) Where Do You Invest? (38:27) Biggest Story In Macro (41:50) The Problems With US Allocators (48:50) Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market (53:50) AI Boom Winners & Losers (57:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy! __ Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) Risk-Off Pivot (07:28) Unpacking System Triggers (12:26) Grayscale Ad (13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses (17:13) Inflation Expectations (23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy (25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs (32:17) Grayscale Ad (33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity (40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions (47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic (50:49) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed’s new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JCTPNIa3J3RutQTuPU37_vfPqIUpcKZ3/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) FOMC Takeaways (07:29) Small Cap Rotation Underway? (09:45) Psychology Of Inflation (11:39) The Fed’s Economic Projections (14:50) Grayscale Ad (15:28) China’s Trade Performance (17:45) Mag7 Ceiling Reached? (18:22) Yields Diverging & Fiscal Stimulus (22:12) CPI Volatility, K-Economy & Messy Politics (27:36) Grayscale Ad (28:24) “Run It Hot” Vs The Dollar (30:47) Short Mag7, Long Main Street? (33:08) Credit Markets & Correlations (36:08) Are We Getting A Santa Rally? (40:27) Consequences of Wealth Disparity (46:58) We’re In The Financial Repression Endgame (50:24) Crypto’s Disappointment (54:03) Hope For The The Youth (57:49) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founder & CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast Keith Dicker breaks down why global markets now depend on constant stimulus, why Canada looks fragile as the U.S. strengthens, and how fiscal expansion and bond-market stress could shape the future of macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Keith: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:23) Everything Revolves Around U.S. Macro (06:17) Repeat of Powell Repo Pivot? (13:15) Grayscale Ad (13:55) Fed QE: Past vs Present (18:30) Did We Bypass Recession? (23:21) Canada’s Comeback & Global Markets (26:30) Unpacking Canada’s Bullish MOU (29:37) Grayscale Ad (30:23) Fixed Income vs Growing Debt Burden (38:21) Precious Metals & Commodities (40:44) Hedging Tail Risks (43:09) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss why the economy feels strong on paper but fragile underneath, from debt-fueled spending and AI-driven growth to rising concentration and growing policy distortions. We also explore where the pressure is really building, the metals trade, and what could break next as 2026 approaches. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BhzyBXj0Qt7LhUlDrb1MYor_iLLP-LQP/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:21) Consumer Spending & K-Economy (09:50) Labor, Small Businesses & the Macro Endgame (16:01) Grayscale Ad (16:39) Market Concentration & CapEx Cycle (23:47) AI Cycle Stage & Race with China (27:44) The Metals Trade (32:14) Grayscale Ad (33:01) Canada’s Big Pivot (37:41) New Fed Chair & Rates (44:10) Vol Dynamics & What to Own (50:33) Centralization & The Race to Zero (55:00) 2026 Fed Games (57:59) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an edge in trading macro. Enjoy! __ Follow Aahan: https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:38) The Real State of the Economy (06:08) Consumption & Real vs Nominal Growth (16:51) Grayscale Ad (17:29) AI CapEx's Economic Impact (26:59) Grayscale Ad (27:47) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Transmission (34:21) Understanding & Trading Liquidity (40:25) Finding Edge in Macro Trading (45:24) Turning Macro into Money (52:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw (09:48) Grayscale Ad (10:27) Market Structure & Positioning (15:14) Debating the AI Race (23:59) Gameplan for Next Year (31:31) Grayscale Ad (32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision (38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities (42:18) Oil & Energy Policy (46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy (55:17) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy! __ Follow Jordi: https://x.com/jvisserlabs Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (05:15) Why Tech is Breaking Old Macro (12:04) Grayscale Ad (12:41) How to Think About AI Disruptions (19:14) Transition From FCF to Debt-Funded (25:04) .Com Comparisons & Infinite AI Demand (29:05) The Genesis Mission (31:10) Grayscale Ad (31:58) The New Reality of Today’s Markets (36:47) Deflation vs Inflation Risks (39:58) Mike Green’s Viral Post (41:52) Debt Doom Loop & Curing All Diseases (45:35) Fed Buying Corporate Bonds (47:25) Bitcoin’s Digital Moat (54:25) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex (09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot (12:05) Grayscale Ad (12:45) Private Credit Warnings (14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup (19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed (22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates (27:12) Grayscale Ad (28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade (36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner (48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins (53:52) Political Reflections (58:54) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle (05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth (09:43) Grayscale Ad (10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot (13:41) Recession Odds (16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy (20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7 (21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics (25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (29:28) Grayscale Ad (30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t) (35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints (40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets (47:21) View on U.S. Equities (50:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1drPbriNOF50E3o6qdKikbqIYQy4qAuc6/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Shutdown Fallout (03:59) Hawkish Fed Speeches (07:52) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (12:14) Grayscale Ad (12:53) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (Con’t) (15:51) Warning Signs for Society (18:58) Hawkish Fed Pivot (21:32) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (28:14) Grayscale Ad (29:02) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (Con’t) (31:04) Policy Missteps & Persistent Inflation (32:00) Bitcoin, Decentralization & the Future of Money (33:10) The 2026 Acceleration Playbook (36:15) Widening Inequality & Generational Divide (44:11) Centralization, Fragility, & Systemic Risks (49:24) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy! __ Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:04) Insights from Victor’s Storied Career (09:22) Today’s Market vs the 90s (16:32) Grayscale Ad (17:11) Fat Tails & Return Chasing (28:41) Grayscale Ad (29:29) Is Discretionary Macro a Fool’s Game? (37:42) Portfolio Construction & Managing Risk (44:33) Balancing Risk, Sizing, & Expected Returns (50:15) What is Good Diversification? (55:55) Exotic Forms of Diversification (59:52) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss America’s decaying two-tier economy, with Main Street stuck in a silent recession, the Fed trapped between fiscal dominance and market structure rot, and younger generations turning to crypto and speculation as their only escape from a rigged system. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f1h9636F5tXpNPX6R5KxLnSi6BUpBnFN/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) Fourth Turning Vibes (04:00) K-Shaped Economy Continues (07:43) The Market is Broken (10:57) Government Role in Markets (11:57) Grayscale Ad (12:34) Government Role in Markets (17:47) Market Structure Decay (21:16) The Death of Retail (25:21) Generational Release Valve (28:33) Labor Market vs Automation (31:28) Grayscale Ad (32:14) Political Pivot for 2026 (35:18) Government Shutdown Ending? (37:32) Is Bitcoin Finally Bottoming? (42:33) Sad Crypto Market Structure (45:19) Solving Crypto’s Problems (48:52) Giving Back to the System — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode from the Empire podcast, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) Why Blockworks Closed The News Division (13:32) Grayscale Ad (14:10) The Next Chapter For Blockworks (20:06) It’s Still A Bull Market (24:30) Securitize Plans To Go Public At a $1.25B Valuation (31:21) Grayscale Ad (32:44) Western Union Announces USDPT (50:07) Mastercard Looks To Acquire Zerohash (56:10) Will Stripe’s Tempo Be a Success? (1:04:01) The MegaETH ICO (1:07:29) Content Of The Week __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the Fed meeting, including the end of quantitative tightening and the impact of its balance sheet plans. We also dig into how market structure imbalances and political polarization are reshaping markets, the “financial Hunger Games” of meme-driven trading, rising CapEx from AI megacaps, and the centralization of wealth and power across institutions. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E5w8fmngVNuC4lyl-PCV5qAPewW_lyKm/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Private-Public Market Divergence (05:08) Fed Meeting Takeaways (11:17) Grayscale Ad (11:56) Market Structure Rabbit Hole (17:26) The Bifurcating Economy (23:01) Fed Balance Sheet Changes (27:40) Impact on Markets (31:27) Grayscale Ad (32:15) High-Yield Earnings & Market Concentration (37:51) BigTech Capex Transition (42:19) The Dystopian AI Future (45:53) Why is Bitcoin Dumping? (48:37) The Market is a Casino (51:28) Realigning Market Incentives (55:06) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy! __ Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook (09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments (12:49) Grayscale Ad (13:27) Government Shutdown Impact (15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies (19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness (22:49) The State of the Labor Market (26:09) Grayscale Ad (26:56) Should the Fed Cut? (30:56) How We Fight Inflation (34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet (41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints (45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity (48:43) Active Treasury Issuance (51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity (53:03) The Debasement Trade (57:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, joined by Hunter Hopcroft to unpack the era of hyper-financialization and how credit creation, passive investing, and globalization have reshaped capitalism and market structure. We also dive into current volatility spikes, liquidity distortions, gold’s surge, and the setup for a year-end rally. Enjoy! — Follow Hunter: https://www.lewisenterprises.blog/ Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3LM4r8zRfHUIQxNqoPwrd7SFXsbqZo8/view?usp=sharing — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) Hunter Hopcroft (03:57) The Old Market Structure (07:39) The Line Between Debt & Equity (09:53) The Financialization Model (18:15) Crowding Out the Private Sector (23:23) Signal from Credit Spreads (27:38) The Effect of Passive & Private Credit (29:57) Market Structure Endgame (34:04) The Government & Markets (39:07) Learn More About Hunter (39:47) Hunter Takeaways (43:18) Quant Corner (50:17) Plumbing Breakdown (53:31) Gold’s Parabolic Run (55:02) Markets After OI Blowouts (57:02) Reasons to be Bullish (59:55) Crypto & US-China Meeting (1:04:09) Boomer Retirement Complex (1:06:22) Something Has to Change — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, CIO of Bitwise Matt Hougan joins us live from DAS London to discuss the surging institutional demand for crypto, the accelerating growth of crypto ETFs, the impact of SEC rule changes, the rise of perpetuals and stablecoins, and how allocations from major institutions are expanding rapidly. Matt highlights why crypto is becoming mainstream in traditional finance and why the ETF landscape is only just beginning. Enjoy! __ Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:42) Institutional Demand for Crypto (02:10) Why 2025 ETF Flows Will Beat 2024 (03:10) Market Impact of ETFs (05:37) SEC Authorizing In-Kind ETF (06:52) Crypto Crash Stress Test (08:05) Expedited SEC Approval (09:42) The Future of Crypto ETFs (12:08) Market Perp-ification & Stablecoin TAM (17:10) Exotic ETF Structures & Retail Access (19:15) ETF Tail Risks (20:53) Options & the Expanding ETF Landscape (24:05) What Excites Institutions? (26:34) The Future of Crypto Allocations (30:30) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we’re joined by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital live from DAS London to break down the global liquidity cycle, the hidden recession and re-acceleration in the U.S., the impact of monetary debasement on gold and Bitcoin, China’s liquidity surge and stablecoin risks, and Europe’s structural challenges. We close with why today’s environment is truly unique in 4,000 years of monetary history. Enjoy! — Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:51) Where Are We in the Global Liquidity Cycle? (05:26) Main St. Recession & Economic Rebound (08:49) GDP vs Liquidity Cycles (10:33) QE, Liquidity & Gold vs BTC (15:44) No 4-Year Cycle But Still Bullish (20:05) Stablecoins & China (27:01) Europe’s Economic Struggles (29:15) Developed Nation Decline (34:55) How Unique is this Moment? — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, CIO of ProCap Jeff Park unpacks the recent crypto market meltdown, the dangers of over-leveraging in perpetual futures, and why Bitcoin could now front-run altcoins. He also gives insights into ProCap’s work as a Bitcoin treasury company, the future of DATs, and reframes the “debasement trade” as a “purification trade” in today’s distorted macro environment. Enjoy! __ Follow Jeff: https://x.com/dgt10011 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:01) Crypto Meltdown Post-Mortem (07:09) Where Do Markets Go From Here? (08:26) Evolving DAT Strategy (16:17) Debasement vs. Purification Trade (21:25) What’s Different this Time? (26:31) The Cost of Years of Debasement (31:42) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the government shutdown and market melt-up, Paul Tudor Jones’ blow off bull market call, an update to the gold trade, the AI CapEx boom and its circular financing, and Quinn’s ETH bull thesis. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Quf3Gf0AY0s6xyHJMmAGZeaZr-quBame/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:43) Government Shutdown (05:45) Realized Vol Tailwinds (08:43) Gearing Up for Earnings Season (11:12) Navigating the Melt Up (12:57) VanEck Ad (13:42) It’s Okay to Change Your Mind (21:27) Markets Are Political (26:44) The Gold Trade (34:43) VanEck Ad (35:23) The Gold Trade (36:36) AI is the Market (43:53) The ETH Thesis (51:48) Retail Market Evolution (56:41) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy! __ Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:39) George’s Market Outlook (05:38) Where the Money’s Moving? (06:57) Trump’s Economic Ripple Effects (08:56) How the Fed Shapes the Cycle (15:12) VanEck Ad (15:56) COVID Spending & Fiscal Fallout (23:20) Are We in a Recession? (32:09) VanEck Ad (32:50) Jobs Data & FICA Withholding (38:29) Taxes, Tariffs & Shorting the Market (44:15) Supreme Court and Constitutional Risk (48:59) When Does the Music Stop? (54:50) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qHbnslxFOFZXswRiw0yv1JCyplgm8haE/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:09) DAS London! (04:06) Government Shutdown (06:42) Labor Weakness Continues (13:45) VanEck Ad (14:31) Demographic Decay of Advanced Economies (17:18) Are You Ready for Negative Real Yields? (19:20) The Macro Stars Are Aligning (24:40) Is it a Bubble or Not? (29:53) VanEck Ad (30:33) Is it a Bubble or Not? (31:40) Gaming Out Trump Admin Policy (38:06) Is there a Bear Case? (41:27) Strong USD, Strong Economy (43:52) Does the Bull Market Have Legs? (51:14) Best Bear Case (53:16) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Emerging Markets Equity Amy Oldenburg explains how her journey from tech to emerging markets led her to crypto, why mobile-first nations are fertile ground for stablecoins, how governments and banks are wrestling with this shift, and where she sees the next big opportunities across EM and innovation. Enjoy! __ Follow Amy: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amyoldenburg/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:06) How Emerging Markets Are Embracing Crypto (06:34) Stablecoins Transforming Emerging Economies (10:30) VanEck Ad (11:13) Banks vs Stablecoins (13:28) Hottest Trends Across EMs (17:00) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs (17:39) VanEck Ad (18:19) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs (20:41) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CN8SRsPqdupjrs27C0k1PDRfvGLf8kS6/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:23) DAS London (04:29) Macro Outlook (06:17) Strong GDP Numbers (07:38) Understanding the New Economy (13:02) VanEck Ad (13:46) The Housing Market (19:25) Biggest Risks to the Economy (27:36) Market Structure Update (29:06) VanEck Ad (29:47) Market Structure Update (33:24) Is Mag7 a Bubble? (39:16) Inflation is the Plan & Problem (43:42) The Poison of Financialization (45:48) Breaking a Broken System (50:15) Gold Pump vs Crypto Slump (55:11) Protectionist Policies & the Dollar (01:05:50) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO of Maelstrom Arthur Hayes shares his macro view on the erosion of Fed independence, inevitable money printing, and how these forces intersect with crypto markets. He covers Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and stocks, the political choices around AI’s productivity boom, and why DeFi, stablecoins, and new decentralized trading models are at the heart of the next cycle. Enjoy! __ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Origin Summit: https://www.originsummit.xyz/ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london  __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):  http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):  vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:42) Money Printing & Yield Curve Control (05:33) What Does this Mean for Bitcoin? (08:38) VanEck Ad (09:22) AI & the Debt Doom Loop (13:19) Favorite Crypto Themes & Innovations (14:23) Perp DEXes & Hyperliquid (18:47) VanEck Ad (19:28) Stablecoin Winners & Losers (22:45) Stablecoin Systemic Risk (24:43) AI, Intellectual Property, and Blockchain (25:59) Western vs. Asian Crypto Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Origin Summit https://www.originsummit.xyz/ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BX16NXlhxAHHCXiWc9o1EJ2-S20K-sZF/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:38) Origin Summit (04:18) Why Are We Cutting Again? (11:30) Cutting Into a Hot Economy? (13:06) VanEck Ad (13:50) Cutting Into a Hot Economy? (17:16) What’s Next for the Dollar? (21:39) Market Structure & Asset Allocation (26:47) Is the Gold Trade Still Alive? (28:28) VanEck Ad (29:13) Bitcoin vs Gold (33:52) Private vs Public Markets (48:22) Generational and Class Politics (50:50) Optimism for the Future — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy! __ Follow Helen: https://x.com/HelenHet20 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:35) Today’s Geopolitical Landscape (05:49) Parallels in History & China Difference (11:06) VanEck Ad (11:51) What are the Goals of Tariffs? (17:53) Fight Over Energy Commodities (27:45) VanEck Ad (28:25) How Will Energy Divide the World? (33:01) Balancing Debt with Defense Spending (38:43) Threat to Dollar as Reserve Currency (43:45) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogspUIuKxnHZh7REVA9tKpo7tyPCA52W/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) DAS London (02:59) Inflation Update (08:15) No High-Yield Problem (12:11) Rate Cuts vs Inflation (13:40) VanEck Ad (14:24) Rate Cuts vs Inflation (15:40) Problems in the Labor Market (20:35) Small-Caps & Productivity Boom (23:05) Fiscal Dominance & Inflation (26:46) VanEck Ad (27:27) SPX Implied Vol & Market Structure (32:12) AI Boom & CapEx (38:24) Bipolar Market Outcomes (42:17) Centralization vs Diversification (49:11) What’s Next for Markets? (52:56) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founders of Atlas Merchant Capital Bob Diamond and David Schamis discuss their journey from traditional finance to digital assets. They discuss Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, permissionless financial rails, and the innovation of perpetual swaps. We also cover the unique token model with daily buybacks, how Atlas is bringing access to U.S. investors through a new treasury vehicle, and the broader macro backdrop of debt, stablecoins, and institutional adoption of blockchain. Enjoy! __ Follow Bob: https://x.com/rediamondjr Follow David: https://x.com/dschamis Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:54) Backgrounds: Skeptics to Believers (09:14) Hyperliquid Innovations (15:19) VanEck Ad (16:07) The Case for Perps (18:49) Blockchain Benefits (21:43) Public vs Private Blockchains (24:36) Atlas Value Proposition (33:06) VanEck Ad (33:47) Real Cash Flow & Valuation (36:37) Turning Point for Finance? (40:16) US Debt & Stablecoins (44:07) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LyoebYlP0p27AqN4mQKVMH6PuYFi9T73/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:07) Tyler Back to School (02:48) DAS London (04:24) Big Labor Market Week (09:29) NFP Downside Surprise (11:11) VanEck Ad (11:57) NFP Downside Surprise (14:04) September Cut Odds (17:28) Bulled Up on Gold (22:59) VanEck Ad (24:21) Will Tariffs Get Overruled? (28:35) Fed Plumbing Concerns (36:39) Read on the Dollar (39:25) Macro Recap (41:34) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this entire regime. Ben also shares how these dynamics blur the line between the stock market and the economy, setting the stage for an AI-driven future. Enjoy! __ Follow Ben: https://x.com/BenKizemchuk Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:42 Ben’s Journey Through Markets 03:05 Ben’s 4 Fs Framework 06:10 F1 - Fiscal Dominance 11:00 Catalysts for Fiscal Dominance 14:15 How Sustainable is Government Debt? 17:36 F2 - Financial Repression 23:28 Rates in a Fiat vs Gold-Backed System 27:20 F3 - Fiat Currency 33:00 Are Governments Constrained by Supply & Demand? 34:55 Role of Monetary Policy Going Forward 39:56 F4 - Passive Flows 44:02 Constraints on Passive Flows 48:25 4 Fs Implications 51:53 Rethinking Asset Allocation 54:35 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps into small caps, and the state of treasury companies. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Treasury Company Dashboard: https://blockworks.com/analytics/treasury-companies Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10EvjpyXzXIjKJsjlwp5C3zKhQTn2pS5t/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:32) Labor Day Reset? (05:39) Market Structure & Volatility (12:58) VanEck Ad (13:43) Market Structure & Volatility (14:21) Fed Takeover Update (15:21) The Inflation Trade (22:08) Wages & Shift from Capital to Labor (28:41) VanEck Ad (29:22) Liquidity Danger Zone? (41:34) The Capex Cycle (48:28) What’s Next for Treasury Companies? (51:32) Tyler’s New Job (53:01) Russell & Market Breadth (55:15) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy! __ Follow Alf: https://x.com/MacroAlf  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london  __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):  http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):  vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy? (07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing? (10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening (13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse (14:51) VanEck Ad (15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse (19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits (24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild (29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders (30:04) VanEck Ad (35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth (36:59) European Markets (40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets (43:54) Commodities Outlook (47:03) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zjfyhnCSgVzJ5u4f7LAHct6KKLq_6gxk/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:50) Jackson Hole Preview (09:43) VanEck Ad (10:27) Fed Minutes (13:05) Will Powell Be A Dove or Hawk? (19:02) Bullish Post Jackson Hole? (20:10) JH Impact on Bond Yields (25:09) Trump’s Fed Takeover Strategy (29:36) Centralization & the Frontiers (32:42) VanEck Ad (33:24) Treasury Auctions in Danger Zone? (38:19) Hike to Save the Long End! (40:05) Boom Time in Japan? (43:45) Inflation Risk > Recession Risk (47:00) The New Financial Reality (51:32) Short Financials? (52:30) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha generation. Enjoy! __ Follow David: https://x.com/David_Grid  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london  __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):  http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):  vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:49) Running A Liquid Crypto Fund (09:29) VanEck Ad (10:14) Main Sources of Alpha (12:29) Have We Had an Alt Season? (14:34) Evolution of Crypto Derivatives (17:46) Quantifying Market Froth (20:32) Measuring Systemic Risk (25:22) VanEck Ad (26:03) Can ETH DATs Issue Preferreds? (29:15) Crypto’s Credit Market (31:54) What Happens When mNAV is Negative? (33:59) Framework for Saylor’s New Yield Curve (38:42) What Should Saylor Do Next? (44:13) Managing the full Spectrum of Tools (48:21) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy! — Follow Brent: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:28) Inflation Heating Up? (07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook (12:08) VanEck Ad (12:53) Should the Fed Cut? (16:01) Time for a Correction? (28:58) VanEck Ad (29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits (33:29) Going Full Ponzi? (37:15) The Imperial Circle (41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact? (48:45) Gold & Gold Miners (51:13) Bifurcated Economy (55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit? (58:41) What Does Trump Really Want? (01:01:20) The Younger Generation Is Screwed (01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire (01:07:06) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy! __ Follow Guy: https://x.com/EconBerger Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (3:01) How Does BLS Gather Data? (6:27) Why Do We Have Revisions? (15:33) VanEck Ad (16:18) How to Think About the Data (20:42) Immigration Impact (29:10) VanEck Ad (29:50) Weekly Claims Data (40:08) JOLTS Data (45:54) The Beveridge Curve (53:49) Where is the Labor Market NOW? (56:20) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HjM04EXMKGsMRRzD1L_oaSqbYpGJT375/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:03) Market Whipsaw (03:10) Miran Fed Nomination (06:07) Where Are We Right Now? (10:19) CRE & Chicago Meltdown (16:50) VanEck Ad (17:35) Pension Crisis (22:17) Dependence on the Rich (26:29) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios (32:59) VanEck Ad (33:43) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios (36:52) Gold Demand & Bitcoin Reserve (40:28) TGA Rebuild (48:19) Negative Real Rates Incoming (50:14) Vanguard Bond Allocation (53:52) Our Slow-Moving Trainwreck (56:04) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy! __ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle (04:13) Institutional Adoption & Regulation (04:57) Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological? (08:37) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact (09:48) Ledger Ad (10:38) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact (17:00) Institutions Are Slow & Steady (18:58) Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity (22:20) Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact (23:38) Ledger Ad (24:25) Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle (25:45) Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages (33:28) Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand? (36:50) Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves (38:28) OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out (41:38) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, we explore what’s next for markets after a week packed with major economic data. We break down the recent surge in market euphoria, discuss whether stagflation is taking hold, and examine the outlook for growth—plus much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london -- Treasury Companies: Market Data - https://blockworks.co/analytics/treasury-companies/market-data __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:56) Takeaways From Economic Data (08:51) AI Capex Is The Economy Now (11:09) VanEck Ad (11:53) AI Capex Is The Economy Now (17:46) Are We In Stagflation? (22:16) Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? (29:05) VanEck Ad (29:50) How To Navigate Stagflation? (38:12) Strategy’s Q2 Earnings __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this LIVE FOMC meeting reaction, we’re bringing together three of the sharpest minds in macro – Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly, and Bob Elliott – to break down the Fed interest rate decision, Powell’s press conference, and what it all means for markets going forward. __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Brent: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:25 Reactions to Hawkish Fed 07:45 GDP and Economic Growth 12:52 Inflation and the Labor Market 16:16 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact 21:49 Currency Dynamics and the US Dollar 27:42 Structural vs. Cyclical Dollar Trends 32:40 Future Fed Leadership 43:19 What's the Trade? 47:11 Crypto and Gold Market 50:47 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Danny Dayan breaks down his framework for analyzing financial conditions and their real-time impact on growth and inflation. He explains why traditional rate transmission mechanisms are breaking down, how immigration and tariffs are distorting the labor market and inflation, and why the Fed may be behind the curve. Danny also lays out his case for a structurally weaker dollar, warns about a “doom loop” dynamic, and shares how he’s positioning his portfolio through it all. Enjoy! __ Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Macro Overview (06:18) Digging Into the Data (11:03) Financial Conditions Framework (12:11) VanEck Ad (12:56) Financial Conditions Framework (28:47) VanEck Ad (29:26) Right Way to Think About Fed Funds (38:56) Outlook on the Dollar (46:40) What Does this Mean for Equities? (50:44) Inflation & Growth Impulse Scenarios (54:01) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack the Fed independence drama following Trump’s visit to Powell, explore the long-term implications of politicizing monetary policy, and preview next week’s pivotal QRA. They discuss how inflation expectations are diverging from commodities, why real yield correlations are breaking down, and how the dollar’s regime may be shifting. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: ​https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fStI5q6IlPMiU2_swJ_r5sImvbxFSugS/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:36) Fed Independence (08:02) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (09:22) Fed Independence (14:25) What’s the Rates Solution? (23:40) Upcoming QRA (25:38) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (27:03) Upcoming QRA (32:14) Potential Fed Pivot (35:49) Dollar Regime Shift (46:08) Housing Market (51:04) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, PhD Economist Jens Nordvig breaks down the evolving macro environment marked by waning Fed independence, shifting capital flows, and a weakening U.S. dollar. He explains how tariff shocks, long-end bond dynamics, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global investment behavior and challenging the traditional safe-haven role of U.S. assets. Jens also outlines the structural phases of de-dollarization, central bank reserve diversification, and how these factors may signal a long-term dollar downtrend. Enjoy! __ Follow Jens: https://x.com/jnordvig Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:38) Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat (07:18) Presidio Conference (10:27) Quantum Resistant Solutions (11:08) Ledn Ad (11:45) Quantum Resistant Solutions (17:14) Jameson’s Proposal (23:21) What If You’re In A Coma? (25:00) Ledn (25:45) Proposal Feedback (27:20) Quantum Mining (29:59) How Fast Is A Quantum Hack? (32:15) The Quantum Plan (33:41) How To Protect Your Funds? (35:39) Bitcoin Layers 2s (37:43) Core vs Knots (42:01) Is Bitcoin Progressing? (45:16) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Le Shrub joins the show to lay out his barbell portfolio strategy and "GAG" (Golden Age of Grift) thesis. We discuss fiscal dominance, bond market dysfunction, yield curve control, and why crypto—especially ETH—is gaining traction as the new high-yield frontier. We also cover risk scenarios like Japan yield shocks, Powell’s potential firing, rising inflation swaps, and how private equity and crypto are being funneled into 401(k)s to keep the system afloat. Enjoy! — Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhG4HJA0tyvEtFncy_voFFm5LEOKEcib/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:54) Shrub Portfolio (07:47) Macro Setup (12:36) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (13:56) Yields Too High? (16:33) Bessent & QRA (18:53) “Fire Powell” Trial Balloon (20:53) Trading The Ponzi (24:48) Japan & Inflation (26:41) Who’s Gonna Buy The Bonds? (33:24) Are Recessions Over? (34:18) Ads (VanEck, Apotos) (35:42) Are Recessions Over? (36:34) Weimar Endgame (38:58) Coldplay Affair (40:41) Volatility, Hedging & Hedge Funds (47:09) Inflation vs Growth (49:52) Trump Risk & Grift (54:13) “Democratizing” Finance (56:36) Crypto Treasury Companies (01:04:07) Why Do You Own Things? (01:05:05) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Senior Research Fellow at Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings David Beckworth breaks down the rising risks of fiscal dominance—when the Fed prioritizes government solvency over price stability. He explains the historical context of fiscal dominance, the warning signs we’re seeing today, and why current debt levels, persistent deficits, and political gridlock are pushing us closer to stage three. Beckworth also dives into the mechanics of stablecoins, the Treasury’s issuance strategy, and potential reforms to the Fed’s operating system, including balance sheet management and NGDP targeting. He warns that without serious structural change, the Fed’s independence and credibility may be at risk. Enjoy! __ Follow David: https://x.com/DavidBeckworth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:27) Major Regime Shift (05:00) Last Era of Fiscal Dominance (08:13) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (09:35) Fiscal Dominance Catalysts (12:29) Phases of Fiscal Dominance (18:37) Can Stablecoins Help? (23:51) Active Treasury Issuance (26:44) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (28:06) Is the Endgame YCC? (31:29) Crossing the Rubicon (33:23) Fed Monetary Policy Framework (38:18) The Ideal Fed Reaction Function (45:18) Rethinking Forward Guidance (47:52) Balance Sheet Goals (52:13) Realistic to Offload Duration? (54:38) Should We Remove IORB? (01:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy! __ Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:50 Big Macro Picture 05:52 Demographics & Debt 10:36 Liquidity & Real Returns 13:43 What is the Endgame? 14:33 Ads (Aptos) 17:49 The Everything Code 20:43 Shifting from QE to Bills 25:12 Financial Conditions 29:40 What’s Driving Gold? 31:42 2017 on Steroids 36:00 Ads (Aptos) 36:52 Nothing Stops This Train 38:32 Removing Recession Risk 44:27 Immigration 46:42 What Happens Next? 55:04 Resurgence of Religion 58:27 When Banana Zone? __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live panel from Permissionless IV, we unpack the rapid rise of token acquisition vehicles like MicroStrategy and Defi Dev Corp. We explore why institutions are using these vehicles to accumulate crypto faster, analyze premium-to-NAV dynamics, discuss the evolution from equity issuance to innovative debt structures like converts and moving strike warrants, and debate sustainability risks if NAV premiums collapse. Enjoy! __ Follow Dan: https://x.com/CryptoIRGuy Follow Tom: https://x.com/fundstrat Follow David: https://x.com/David_Grid Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) The Rise of Crypto Treasury Companies (07:45) What Catalyzed this Trend? (08:27) Ledger Ad (09:24) What Catalyzed this Trend? (14:17) Unpacking the Capital Structure (20:26) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies (22:06) Ledger Ad (23:00) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies (30:53) Asset Unwind Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Cold Open (04:00) Bullish NFP? (08:25) Ads (Aptos) (11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact (17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition (21:22) BBB Passed, Now What? (26:40) Ads (Aptos) (27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible (34:32) High-Yield Credit (37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum (39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE (41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse (44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement (46:58) Crushing Global Labor (48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking (51:47) EM-ification of the US (54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility (58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum (01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System (01:08:50) Buying vs Renting (01:13:28) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this panel live from Permissionless IV, we discuss what TradFi can learn from crypto, from instant settlement and transparent markets to permissionless synthetic dollars and on-chain leveraged trading. We cover stablecoin demand dynamics, the future of tokenized structured products, how perps outperform options for retail, the practical limits of decentralization, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Kaledora: https://x.com/kaledora Follow Guy: https://x.com/gdog97_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:23) What can TradFi Learn from Crypto? (10:14) Is Decentralization Important? (10:53) Ledger Ad (11:43) Is Decentralization Important? (17:23) Bringing TradFi Onchain (22:35) Ledger Ad (23:29) Bringing TradFi Onchain (26:32) Stablecoins & The GENIUS Act (30:57) Most Optimistic Innovations __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special bonus episode, we dive into the takeaways from Permissionless IV, unpacking the biggest industry narratives and themes shaping crypto today. We discuss the future of stablecoins, give a candid macro outlook, and explore how Big Tech is positioning itself as the next crypto overlord. Finally, we reflect on some predictions we got wrong – and what we learned from them. Enjoy! — Follow Jack: https://x.com/whosknave Follow Boccaccio: https://x.com/salveboccaccio Follow Danny: https://x.com/defi_kay_ Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:57 Permissionless IV Takeaways 07:00 Biggest Industry Narratives 12:00 Future of Stablecoins 17:44 Macro Outlook 20:47 Big Tech Overlords 28:38 Predictions We Got Wrong — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live Forward Guidance Roundup, we discuss geopolitics and the “peace dividend” theory from Pippa Malmgren, potential Fed regime shifts toward fiscal dominance, Trump’s pressure on FOMC board members, and the effects of tariffs and buybacks on equities. We also explore the implications of a weakening dollar, capital flows out of the U.S., and how AI and crypto could reshape wealth creation and ownership in the coming decade. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:10 Geopolitical Framework 05:00 Biggest Story in Markets 08:22 Flows vs Fundamentals 13:33 Moving Toward Fiscal Dominance 16:39 Housing, Labor, & the Wealth Gap 20:12 The Dollar Decline & RoW Assets 27:15 Investing in the RIght Themes 30:02 Potential Currency Accord 34:31 Tariffs, AI, & Labor — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special episode recorded live at Permissionless IV, Maple Finance CEO Sid Powell unpacks the rise, fall, and rebuild of crypto lending. He discusses navigating the 2022 crypto credit collapse, the trade-offs between fixed and variable lending, why traditional institutions are finally entering DeFi, and how composability, transparency, and tokenized credit products are reshaping global finance. Sid also shares Maple’s shift toward overcollateralized lending, BTC-based yield products, and the future of structured on-chain credit. Enjoy! __ Follow Sidney: https://x.com/syrupsid Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) Sid Powell's Journey into Crypto (02:11) The Birth of Maple Finance (02:51) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending (07:12) Ledger Ad (07:12) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending (08:45) Navigating the 2022 Crypto Crisis (14:33) Current State of Crypto Lending (17:21) Biggest Crypto Innovations (18:32) Ledger Ad (19:32) Defi Integration and Secondary Markets (21:01) Creating Counterparty Transparency (22:52) Transparency and Financial Product Costs (24:40) Fixed Rate vs Variable Rate Lending in Crypto (28:21) Future of Crypto Lending and Institutional Interest (31:16) Structured Products and Treasury Companies (35:51) Navigating Crypto Market Cycles (38:25) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live Roundup episode from the Monetarium 2 conference in DC, we unpack the Fed's hawkish pivot, the growing risk of stagflation, and Powell’s apparent commitment to being “late” with rate cuts. We debate what an SLR exemption means for bond markets, how Treasury issuance and TGA refills could spike yields, and why 2026’s Fed chair pick could upend everything. We also explore global capital flows, the decline of US dollar dominance, and how to navigate a world where almost every asset feels dangerous to own. Enjoy! — Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:00) FOMC Decision (09:06) Aptos Ad (09:50) FOMC Decision (13:09) Noisy Economic Data (14:14) SLR Changes (18:43) TGA Drain & Buildup (24:50) Long Bond Yields (25:28) Aptos Ad (26:21) Long Bond Yields (29:11) Powell Replacement (34:38) Fiscal Dominance (39:58) US Assets vs ROW (46:12) Dollar Losing Reserve Status? (51:17) Where to Put Your Money — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special episode from the Empire podcast, Blockworks unveils its new Token Transparency framework—an initiative designed to close the information gap and bring much-needed clarity to the crypto space. Dan Smith, Head of Data at Blockworks, explains how this framework will reshape how token projects operate and why transparency is the key to crypto’s future. Enjoy! — Follow Dan: https://x.com/smyyguy  Fallow Yano: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz  Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod  Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_   Supply Shock Telegram: https://t.me/+SpmLg6P_QcgxNDcx  Supply Shock Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock  Supply Shock Survey: https://bitcoinhistorynl.beehiiv.com/forms/979475d9-fb4b-4c13-99af-5037dd5718c6  — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code SUPPLY10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv  — Ledn is the leading platform for Bitcoin-backed loans, offering a secure and transparent way to unlock liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Ledn has issued over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and has never lost a single satoshi of client assets, earning a reputation as the name you can trust in the crypto space. Visit https://www.ledn.io/ to learn more.  Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: 00:00 Token Transparency 02:25 The Token Market & Lemons 11:40 Equity vs Token Risk 14:18 Structural Token Issues 17:12 How Did We Get Here? 22:57 Token Horror Stories 31:50 Token Launches 56:50 Best Case Scenario 01:02:38 Impact On Token Prices — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Bitcoin #Crypto #SupplyShock

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Vishal Gupta—former head of USDC at Circle and Coinbase Exchange—joins to discuss his journey from Goldman Sachs to building crypto-native market infrastructure with his new venture, True Markets. He shares how stablecoins are reshaping market plumbing, the growing relevance of perpetual futures vs. options, and what traditional finance can learn from crypto (and vice versa). Enjoy! __ Follow Vishal: https://x.com/vishalkgupta Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:07) Vishal’s History (07:06) Most Interesting Crypto Innovations (10:29) Ledger Ad (11:21) Stablecoin Adoption & Fragmentation (20:36) Evolution of Crypto Options & Exchanges (27:15) Ledger Ad (28:07) Bringing Exotic Assets Onchain (30:37) Innovating Market Infrastructure (37:14) Permissionless IV __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we're back with another weekly roundup to discuss the unwinding of the U.S Dollar & it's impact on markets. We deep dive into this weeks economic data, rising geopolitical conflict, the global fiscal supercycle & more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ -- Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:10) The Market Is Fading Geopolitical Conflict (11:42) Ads (Aptos, Arkham) (12:52) Takeaways From Economic Data (16:33) The U.S Debt Refinancing Cycle (21:42) How To Stop The Long End Sell-Off (29:08) The Unwinding Of The U.S. Dollar Trade (35:13) The Weimarification Of U.S Markets (38:19) The Global Fiscal Supercycle (41:02) Will A.I Bail Us Out? -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, Robert Bench – former Fed official, USDC co-creator, and now founder of Radius – joins to unpack the real story behind Project Hamilton and the Fed’s digital dollar pivot. He explains why CBDCs became politically radioactive, how stablecoins are replacing the card networks, and why America must act fast or lose the future of money to China. Plus: how Radius plans to disrupt AdWords with scalable payments infrastructure—and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Robert: https://x.com/RkBench Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:59) Circle & Stablecoin Innovations (08:42) Ads (Ledger, Arkham) (10:00) Building CBDCs (20:47) Unpacking the CBDC Pushback (25:36) Where Stablecoins Stand Today (32:05) MMFs & Stablecoin Yields (32:59) Ads (Ledger, Arkham) (34:36) MMFs & Stablecoin Yields (38:33) Innovating Payments & Attention Economy (52:10) Stablecoin Endgame (58:28) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Felix and Tyler unpack the unraveling Trump–Elon alliance as a microcosm of fiscal denial, explore the slow death of austerity, and discuss why endless debt and political gridlock may actually be bullish. They dive deep into the brewing housing market crack, the quiet rise of crypto IPOs like Circle, and the generational shift from TradFi despair to crypto optimism. Plus, reflections on Larry Fink’s globalization rebrand, market structure flows holding up equities, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Subscribe to Milk Road: https://bit.ly/43EDdiW — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1badYX4f8iXwp3_nN7zm_hu0dVINu80QF/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:43) The Narrative Market (03:49) Austerity Isn’t Happening (06:27) Fed Easing, Jobs Data & Liquidity (10:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham, Milk Road) (13:09) Inflation & Stagflation Threat (15:23) Housing Market (21:08) Crypto Boom Time (25:34) Crypto Is Changing (29:07) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham) (31:31) BTC ETF Holders (32:49) Saylor & Crypto Treasury Companies (34:46) 2nd Draft of Globalization (40:25) Chamath & The New Media (44:09) Everything Will Change (47:23) Market Structure (52:23) Flows vs Fundamentals (55:23) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, Jim Bianco Jim Bianco returns to break down why the post-COVID economy has completely broken old models, how soft data continues to mislead markets, and why 5% yields are now the new normal. He explains why everyone got April wrong, what the return of bond vigilantes means for fiscal policy, and how the Fed is out of step with reality. They also dive into Trump’s tariff strategy, the collapse of DOGE, the global shift toward bill issuance, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jim: https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Subscribe to Milk Road: https://bit.ly/43EDdiW — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — (00:00) Introduction (01:26) People Just Don’t Get it (04:44) The Narrative Market (12:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Milk Road) (14:54) Trump Goals vs Reality (21:01) Tariffs or Capital Controls? (27:10) What is the Role of Monetary Policy? (32:43) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger) (35:05) Rate Cuts vs Hikes (42:22) Who’s Buying Bonds? (50:46) The Short Duration Shift (54:59) Gold & Bitcoin (57:44) US vs RoW Assets __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we discuss the federal court injunction against Trump’s tariffs and whether this marks a true policy shift or just legal theater. The crew also dives into stealth bailouts via Treasury bill issuance, Japan’s inflation puzzle, AI’s productivity promises, and the looming housing and credit crunch. Plus, stablecoins are emerging as major buyers of U.S. debt. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-opkz9g_zdZo2XzMWZ4KnE7PzzmvTSe/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted. Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more! — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:10) Permissionless (04:25) Court Blocks Trump Tariffs (10:04) Has Anything Really Changed? (11:16) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Aptos) (12:59) Has Anything Really Changed? (15:44) Economy Mostly Fine (17:32) It’s All About Flows (20:46) BOJ & The Acronym Factory (25:36) AI Disruption (30:09) Japan Financial Repression (32:08) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Aptos) (34:33) Delinquencies & Real Wages (36:07) Endowments, VC, & Private Markets (42:46) Housing Teetering (47:16) Trump & Powell Meet (48:38) Winning Innovation Themes (50:54) BIS Stablecoin Paper — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, David Cervantes from Pinebrook Capital breaks down 2025’s shifting macro landscape, covering fiscal stimulus, inflation, Fed policy, and market positioning. He highlights strong US deficits supporting growth, labor market shifts from immigration, and the chances of a June rate cut. He compares US vs. global equities, fixed income challenges, gold’s role, and small caps’ struggles with sector-specific opportunities. Enjoy! __ Follow David: https://x.com/EconstratPB Follow Pinebrook: https://www.pinebrookcap.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted. Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more! — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) YTD Macro Recap (06:13) The Big Macro Picture (11:29) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos) (13:57) Rate Hike Dilemma (15:57) Tuning Out the Noise (18:10) Labor Market (22:59) Fed Policy Reaction (29:07) Growth Outlook (31:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos) (34:30) Structural Bid to Assets (37:36) US vs ROW (45:20) Fixed Income Outlook (47:42) Gold Outlook (48:39) Small Caps vs Large Caps (55:12) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, we discuss the U.S. fiscal pivot, soaring deficits, and what it means for bond markets, Bitcoin, and global capital flows. We also debate whether Japan is the canary in the coal mine for sovereign debt risks, if QE is still politically viable, the housing market crisis, and why Bitcoin and foreign equities may be the only rational long-term trades. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zNQbt0lyXLmZQYf-56mneLpPxFNJ5y7h/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted. Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more! — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) Big Beautiful Bill (06:47) There’s One Trade (09:39) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham) (11:21) Government Spending Problem (14:10) US Economic Data (16:55) Housing Market Crisis (22:12) Global Collateral & JGBs (27:21) Food Prices & Labor (30:46) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham) (33:10) Bond Yields & Inflation (38:32) Liquidity & Collateral Stress (42:03) US Equities Still Safe? (50:37) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode, author of the MacroTourist newsletter Kevin Muir joins the show to unpack why fiscal dominance is the defining force in today’s markets. He explains how MMT helped him rethink macro, why higher interest rates have recently been stimulative, and how the U.S. deficit is fueling both market resilience and long-term risk. We also dive into Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, foreign capital repatriation, the implications for bonds and equities, and why Muir is positioning for FX volatility and a major private credit unwind. Enjoy! __ Follow Kevin: https://x.com/kevinmuir Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:56) Two Macro Buckets (07:50) Higher Rates Stimulative? (14:03) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger) (15:52) Credit Ratings & Deficits (18:46) Challenges of Cutting Deficits (28:09) Capital Controls Next? (33:02) Time to Own Volatility (38:43) FX Volatility (39:35) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger) (41:57) Global Inflection Point (49:12) US Bond Market (55:11) Firing Powell & the Dollar (57:28) Equities & Risk Premium (01:01:26) US Outlook: Bullish ROW? (01:06:41) Corporate Credit (01:10:22) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yIKpOcGu-wv67vfeKu5I7Lo17hftwgk/view?usp=sharing—Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comArkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (01:05) Tyler’s Back! (03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework (09:56) Inflation & Labor (11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham) (12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality (19:58) Generational Repatriation (22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility (24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls (27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion (28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham) (30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking (35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment (38:08) US Equities & AI (43:14) Asian Currencies (45:21) New System in Motion (47:07) Short Bond Trade (49:34) Final Thoughts —Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, James of Citrini Research returns to unpack his framework for understanding Trump-era macro policy, highlighting why the trade war pause was inevitable, the return of the three-legged stool, and how the "big beautiful bill" could fuel equities. He also outlines why robotics might be the next great secular investment, breaks down China’s robotics lead, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Citrini: https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:54) Trump, Tariffs & Macro Overview (10:48) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo) (12:54) Taxes, Deregulation & Fiscal (18:45) Deficit, Defense & DOGE (22:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo) (25:43) AI & Robotics (35:28) Macro Impact of AI & Robotics (39:08) Investing in Robotics (44:52) China vs USA (48:44) Subsidizing to Build Reliance (51:53) Citrini's Core Thesis __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Luke Gromen joins the show to discuss the trade agreement with China, why the U.S. can’t afford real interest rates, and how the bond market—not policymakers—is now setting the rules. We also explore the hidden costs of decoupling from China, the inevitability of dollar devaluation, why any attempt at fiscal austerity is doomed, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Luke: https://x.com/LukeGromen Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — (00:00) Introduction (01:38) China Trade Deal (08:09) Balance of Trade IS Currencies (10:45) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (12:08) Gold, Yuan & USD (15:36) China Market & Competitive Edge (20:06) Global Bifurcation (24:51) Southeast Asia & Industrial Policy (29:23) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (31:23) US Fiscal Endgame (35:56) Treasury Tools (41:06) Why Issue Any Long Duration? (43:40) The Fed’s Next Move (45:38) Austerity Risk (51:06) The Trend Hasn’t Changed __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss our FOMC takeaways, Bessent making progress on a China trade deal, and how we’re thinking about the yield curve. We also delve into Fed QE misinformation, the bullish vs bearish risk-to-reward right now, the Taiwan dollar and Mag7 exodus, Bitcoin repeating last summer, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V9LpLt45QpaeAz-YgFcQZLlwwxTmqZaZ/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:29) FOMC Takeaways (09:03) Strong Economic Data & Tariffs Sidelining Fed (12:59) Unemployment & Immigration (15:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo) (17:17) Inflation & Fed Reaction (22:28) Trading Cuts & the Curve (25:49) Fed QE Misinformation (29:42) Bessent & China Trade Deal (35:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo) (38:00) Bullish vs Bearish Catalysts (44:34) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity (46:51) Taiwan Dollar, Klauss & Mag7 Exodus (55:21) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Craig Fuller joins the show to discuss how tariffs and Trump’s trade war are impacting shipping and supply chains. We dig into the differences between today and the COVID shock, the impact on small vs large businesses, bonded warehouses, the de minimis exemption, how this whole trade disruption is likely to unfold, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Craig: https://x.com/FreightAlley Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Tariff Shock vs COVID (07:31) Front Running & Stress Points (11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (12:41) Inventory Buffers (15:36) Impact on Small vs Large Businesses (22:55) How Will All this Unfold? (33:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo) (35:36) Point of No Return? (42:58) Tracking Shipping (45:37) De Minimis Exemption (48:45) Chinese Exporters (51:51) Demand Destruction & Inflation (53:25) Learn More About Craig’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro joins the show to discuss why he didn’t call for a recession in previous years but IS calling for one in 2025, why the labor market is looking bleak, and how tariffs, wages, and oil play into the inflation outlook. We also delve into what the Fed should be doing headed into the FOMC meeting, Fed independence & the future Chairman, how the long bond will react to a recession, and more. Enjoy!—Follow RenMac: https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx —Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comAt Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) NFP & Labor Market (10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo) (11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data (17:38) Tariff Strategy (19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda (31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo) (32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks (38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand (44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies (51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum (53:47) MSTR Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy! -- Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx -- Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv -- At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order (07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows (12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025? (18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth (23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis? (28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling? (32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism (41:10) A New Regime For Markets? (43:35) The U.S Economic Supply Shock (47:03) Structuring Alpha vs Beta Portfolios -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop (13:21) Ondo Ad (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization? (16:15) Dollar & Bonds (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation (31:48) Ondo Ad (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored (38:13) Trading The Current Regime (47:24) Gold Market (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth? (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem (09:30) What Will the Fed Do? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions (07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy (13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows (19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity (25:26) Treasury Buybacks (30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (32:04) Powell & The Fed (34:43) SLR & Big Banks (37:30) What Would Trigger QE? (41:55) Structural Bid In Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hLnf2szLRxPcUkIJwPyj34UbhHadON69/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:45) Recent Fed Remarks (06:26) Macro View and Tariff Trades (16:27) Ondo Ad (16:52) Market Positioning and Growth Slowdown (27:30) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (35:30) Ondo Ad (36:01) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (Con't) (36:59) Equities & Government Spending (41:44) Bitcoin: The Trade After the Trade — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they’re thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed’s cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Market Radar Models (04:12) Systematic vs Discretionary Macro (07:23) Market Radar Systematic Approach (14:31) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (15:42) Lessons for Discretionary Traders (20:58) Weaknesses of Systematic Macro (24:06) Argument Against Shorting (27:57) Current Market Outlook (34:13) Current Market Outlook (Con't) (34:22) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (37:00) The Fed & Deficits (46:42) Conditions to Turn Risk-On (49:07) Catching Tops & Bottoms (52:09) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we’re on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Mel’s Spot-on Market Predictions (06:30) Macro Drivers of the Market Downturn (09:04) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (13:36) Ondo Ad (14:01) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (Con't) (15:39) The Anti-Dollar Trade (23:28) Social Security and Long-Term Economic Outlook (28:47) Trump Admin’s Grand Agenda (34:37) Federal Reserve and Inflation (35:54) Ondo Ad (36:24) Bond Market and Yield Curve Distortion (39:32) Yield Curve Distortions & Inflation (52:52) Currencies and Emerging Markets (57:57) Gold & Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we join the Empire podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset & more. Enjoy! — Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel -- Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Turning Bearish In 2025 (10:490 Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (12:00) How Trump Spooked Markets (15:46) The Trump & Bessent Playbook (19:13) The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025 (27:57) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (29:07) How To Position Under Trump 2.0 (32:46) Will The Fed Step In? (36:46) What We Learnt From SVB’s Collapse (39:43) What’s Trump’s End Game (44:31) Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven? (47:24) Building A Crypto Portfolio (01:01:01) Long vs Short Vol (01:04:04) Coinbase & Crypto Equities — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before even thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what’s going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cAWJKncxGgliZa54aTq08eCgn9Q-P8x1/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) PMLS IV (02:02) Navigating This Insane Market (07:32) Key Market Drivers (12:22) Ondo Ad (12:48) China & Tariffs (16:31) US Spending Problem (20:33) Bond Market (24:12) The Fed & Inflation (29:40) Powell, Bessent & Fiscal (32:39) Ondo Ad (33:10) Navigating A Volatile Market (38:55) Secretary Bessent Running Point (42:50) Alternative Trade Restructuring Strategies (48:59) Unpacking the Bond Market Put (52:47) BTC ATHs in 2025 (56:02) Market Tailwinds — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Darius: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:06) Key Market Narratives (04:03) Trump's Economic Vision (13:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (14:39) Trump's Economic Vision (Con't) (16:02) Technical vs. Actual Recession (20:02) Credit Cycle and Market Positioning (25:13) Market Pricing for Recession (30:15) Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts (32:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger) (33:54) Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE (37:26) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing (43:50) Portfolio Construction and Risk Management (47:34) KISS Portfolio System (52:29) Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, what markets we’re eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Timestamps: (00:00) Forward Guidance x Macro Dirt (01:32) Unpacking Trump’s Tariffs & Market Reaction (09:56) Commodity Markets (15:04) Federal Reserve and Economic Data (24:27) Market Volatility and Bear Market Rallies (25:57) Risk Management Strategies for Traders (30:00) Gold Miners and Commodity Markets (33:25) Tax Cuts and Tariff Implications (37:43) Bitcoin's Resilience (42:53) Bond Price Action (44:53) Weekend Plans — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves (03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump (09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing (16:05) Ledger Ad (16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio (20:19) Post-GFC Financial System (23:46) Repo Market Tensions (35:01) Ledger Ad (35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing (39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates (44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite (50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy (01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity (01:07:59) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, James Seyffart, Jeff Park, Robert Leshner, Ambre Soubrian, and John Mullin sit down at DAS to discuss tokenizing real world assets, how tokenization brings liquidity to assets similar to ETFs, and the opportunities around tokenized private credit, data, and more. We also delve into the next wave of institutional adoption, competing with the TradFi behemoths, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Jeff: https://x.com/dgt10011 Follow Robert: https://x.com/rleshner Follow Ambre: https://x.com/ambresoub?lang=en Follow John: https://x.com/jp_mullin888 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:33 Tokenizing Real World Assets 07:45 ETFs and Tokenization  14:16 Biggest Tokenization Opportunities 17:11 Tokenizing Data 20:55 Bringing the World On-Chain 24:35 Regulatory Expectations 26:47 The Next Wave of Institutional Adoption 31:59 European Market 33:16 Competing with TradFi 36:20 Institutional Adoption and Future Outlook __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Le Shrub joins the show to discuss the end of American exceptionalism, overexposure to Mag7 and the US dollar, and European allocators moving away from the United States. We also delve into the era of geographic diversification, the detox period in the US to lower the 10-year and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:02) The End of American Exceptionalism (03:28) Trump Policies and European Response (08:45) China's DeepSeek Moment (13:00) Ledger Ad (13:45) US vs. Europe (22:52) The Role of Hedge Funds and Pension Funds (32:53) Ledger Ad (33:37) The Role of Hedge Funds and Pension Funds (Con't) (35:51) US Market Flexibility vs. European Rigidity (37:07) Risks and Opportunities in Europe (44:51) Trading the US Detox Period (50:26) Bond Market vs Fiscal Policies (58:09) Final Thoughts & Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang and Austin Campbell join the show to discuss their overview of macro after the latest FOMC meeting, the EM-ification of the United States, and how stablecoins play into the continuation of US dollar hegemony. We also delve into support for stablecoin legislation, the case against the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & US sovereign wealth fund, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) Macro & Crypto Colliding (01:09) Overview of Macro and FOMC Meeting (04:25) US EM-ification (09:39) Ledger Ad (10:23) What is Good Fiscal & Monetary Policy? (13:55) Stablecoins and US Treasury Demand (19:01) Stablecoin Legislation (23:44) Reinventing Money Market Funds (24:29) Ledger Ad (32:58) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & Sovereign Wealth Fund (36:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi from 1000x join the show to discuss Bitcoin vs altcoin inflows, the Trump impact on markets, and the bull case for Bitcoin. We also delve into global liquidity, how to position for 2025, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz   Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx  — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125  — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv   — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:30 BTC vs Alt Inflows 08:46 The Trump Impact On Markets 16:14 Why Have Markets Sold Off? 20:14 The Bull Case For Bitcoin 23:09 Global Liquidity 26:13 How To Position In 2025? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss takeaways from the FOMC meeting and SEP, the balance of Treasury and fiscal policy, and how a strategic Bitcoin reserve and stablecoins play into the United States’ goals. We also delve into the US sovereign wealth fund, our highest conviction trades, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) FOMC Meeting Insights (05:46) Treasury and Fiscal Policy (10:26) Global Economic Dynamics (20:06) Digital Assets and Crypto Market (24:48) US Sovereign Wealth Fund (30:20) Digital Asset Big Picture (34:01) Highest Conviction Trades — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Mohamed El-Erian: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Expectations for the Fed (02:47) Inflation Expectations (09:38) Ledger Ad (10:25) Tariffs & Growth (13:20) Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Policies (22:31) Stablecoins and Digital Assets (25:12) Ledger Ad (28:31) Bitcoin as a Neutral Reserve Asset (33:00) Europe's Sputnik Moment (37:39) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss his bullish 2025 outlook for Bitcoin, why the US government needs stablecoins, and what’s next for the broader crypto industry. We also delve into how bullish institutions are compared to retail, Bitcoin's correlation to gold, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) Macro & Crypto (04:38) Global Fiscal Impulse (06:18) The US Needs Stablecoins (09:30) US Embrace of Bitcoin (12:54) What’s Next for the Industry (15:17) Institutions are Bullish! (16:40) Fragmentation of ETF vs On-chain Assets (20:28) Bitcoin’s Correlation to Gold (21:38) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit (02:16) CPI Takeaways (05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism (08:45) Ledger Ad (09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare (14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game (20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (24:36) Ledger Ad (25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't) (31:11) It's a Bear Market (32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis (34:26) Bond Market & Yields (39:11) 60/40 Portfolio (42:34) Hedging Strategies (45:08) Crypto Market Prospects — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump’s tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin’s Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments (05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown (07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy (17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal (19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal (23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy (25:36) DAS Promo (26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity (33:23) Target Date Funds (36:17) Trump Administration Goals (51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields (59:22) Market Predictions (01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market (07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives (14:14) Ledger Ad (14:59) European Market Outlook (18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip (27:32) Ledger Ad (28:18) Bond Market and NFP (32:28) Oil Market Outlook (37:51) Equity Subsectors (40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment (43:52) Crypto Market Advice (48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher (51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading (54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss the February jobs report, tariffs & imports front-running, and the inflation outlook, including the growing risk of stagflation. We also delve into the outlook for Europe, Japan, and China, Bitcoin and digital assets, and more. Enjoy! — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG200 FOR $200 OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ Follow Mohamed: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:27) Job Report & Labor Market (05:45) US Growth & Stagflation Risk (09:41) Tariffs & Imports (11:19) Inflation Outlook & Oil (15:48) Fiscal Outlook (19:32) DAS Promo (20:14) Fed & Number of Cuts in 2025 (22:57) Goods, Services, & Shelter Inflation (25:51) Europe, Japan, & China (32:14) Bitcoin & Digital Assets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:09) Market Cycle Clock Explained (06:09) Deciphering the Market Regime (10:13) Sector Performance and Predictions (11:01) Ledger Ad (11:46) Sector Performance and Predictions (Con't) (19:04) Outlook for European and Chinese Markets (24:30) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (32:48) Ledger Ad (33:33) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (Con't) (34:35) Credit Spreads and Market Sentiment (37:08) Gold and Bitcoin (41:27) Highest Conviction Bet for 2025 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump’s political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Supply Shock YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro Overview (05:21) Recession Predictions (07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (10:42) Skale Ad (11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't) (14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook (24:35) Historical Comparisons (31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (33:32) Skale Ad (34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con’t) (39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility (46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies (49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights (54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0 (10:01) Skale Ad (10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio (17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies (25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (34:51) Skale Ad (35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't) (38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries (44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates (52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts (01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment (01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes (06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (16:20) Skale Ad (16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) (20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective (22:41) Skale Ad (23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT (27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth (29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies (32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx (33:43) Yen & DAX (38:09) Crypto Market Update __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Benn Eifert joins the show to discuss derivative & volatility strategies, the biggest derivatives misconceptions, and flaws with Stephen Miran’s tariff arguments. We also delve into volatility risk under the Trump administration, how to think about VIX percentage moves, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Benn Eifert: https://x.com/bennpeifert Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:32) Understanding Volatility-Focused Hedge Funds (04:12) Tools and Strategies in Volatility Trading (11:21) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (19:03) Skale Ad (19:27) The Rise of Derivative-Based ETFs (Con't) (27:15) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (32:06) Skale Ad (32:36) Risks and Misconceptions in Retail Options Trading (Con’t) (37:09) Options Trading (41:07) Implied Probabilities and Market Misconceptions (44:17) The Reality of Options Pricing Models (47:06) Impact of Derivatives on the Market (57:47) Navigating Volatility in the Trump Era (01:01:01) Debating the Merits of Tariffs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the latest CPI data, how the Trump administration will balance economic vs market success, and the constant economic headfakes. We also delve into how the government kicks the can without QE, MicroStrategy holding up Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJjbC4s7DKMR3nU0_6C242oEhrfYH67O/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Analyzing the Latest CPI Data (10:56) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (16:53) Skale Ad (17:15) Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Headfakes (Con't) (29:34) Skale Ad (30:04) Roundup Continues (32:51) Liquidity Concerns (34:49) The SLR Exemption Debate (42:59) Crypto, Bitcoin Strength, & Michael Saylor's Influence (48:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andreas Steno Larsen joins the show to discuss the outlook for liquidity, the uptick in the manufacturing and credit cycle, and expectations around inflation. We also delve into Powell’s QE comments, idiosyncratic drivers of gold, and much more. Enjoy! Follow Andreas Steno Larsen: https://x.com/AndreasSteno Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Current Macro Backdrop and Market Sentiment (01:48) Liquidity Backdrop and Federal Reserve Policies (04:33) Private Sector Liquidity and Credit Creation (10:21) Treasury General Account and Debt Ceiling (17:30) Skale Ad (17:54) Future Liquidity Measures and Market Implications (21:06) Private Credit and Economic Cycle (26:55) Meta's Client Base and Market Power (27:44) Russell Index and Wage Growth Insights (29:42) Inflation and CPI Analysis (33:17) Skale Ad (33:46) Global Tariff Impacts and Dollar Outlook (36:26) European Market Performance (42:05) Gold Market Dynamics (48:22) Bond Yields and Truflation Measure (51:19) Learn More About Andreas and his Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the possibility of the market discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE success, the market implications of the Treasury QRA, and whether the manufacturing uptick is tariff front-running or the beginning of a new boom. We also delve into the state of the crypto market, MicroStrategy’s earnings, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hLvwH8eVffhQ5-C97EM1pNqfxXRwYWz/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:02) Upcoming DAS 2025 (03:05) Tariff Delays (04:41) Bitcoin and Crypto (10:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (12:01) Liquidity Outlook and Dollar Strength (17:02) Market Discounting Trump, Bessent, & DOGE (20:32) Treasury Issuance and Policy Changes (28:06) Growth & Liquidity (29:02) Bond Yields and Growth Expectations (30:51) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (32:06) Construction and Manufacturing (33:57) Government vs. Private Sector (36:14) Stock Market and Investment Sentiment (40:44) MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Investments (43:49) Evaluating Government's Role in Investments (47:54) Upcoming Jobs Report __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth joins the show to discuss recent tariff headlines, the state of the US labor market, and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on inflation. We also delve into the complexities of implementing tariffs and the economic policies of the Trump administration, the influence of government stimulus on job creation, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Impact of Tariffs on the Economy (07:21) US Labor Market Concerns (09:23) Gig Economy and Unemployment (12:59) State and Federal Job Market Dynamics (16:23) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (17:07) Interview Continues (22:45) Inflation and the Fed's Mandate (27:50) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (29:04) Interview Continues (32:23) Manufacturing Sector and Economic Outlook (35:28) Business Investment and Recession Indicators (39:40) Federal Reserve's Internal Fragmentation (48:33) Learn More About Danielle's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss crypto's liquidation event over the weekend and how to trade the upcoming week. We deep dive into the weak performance of altcoins, Bitcoin's role in a multipolar world, shorting in this market environment & more. Enjoy! -- Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://blckwrks.co/3WADHnL Apple: https://blckwrks.co/4aEt5u0 -- Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh -- Kraken OTC unlocks premium, personalized services for high-net worth individuals and institutional clients to execute large orders. Trade over chat or access our self-service automated trading feature to receive executable quotes in seconds. Get 24/7 access to private and secure trading services and deep liquidity for competitive execution. Get in touch today: kraken.com/blockworks Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding WA, NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc. -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Empire podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world’s crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now at Ledger.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Carnage In Crypto (04:21) Shorting This Market (13:57) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger) (15:00) When To Buy This Market? (19:29) WIF (23:48) Privacy Coins (27:26) What's Next For Markets? (39:05) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger) (40:44) Bitcoin In A Multipolar World (50:16) The AI Trade -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed

This week we discuss the Fed meeting, the impact of Trump's back & forth economic policies, and the outlook for bitcoin and alts. We also delve into the bull case for Lyft, what the totality of economic data says about the economy, and much more. Enjoy!— Follow Andrew: https://x.com/_Andrew_Stein Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp— Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oVXtaPmwC592uvnClK9JA3I8uVSzf6BD/view?usp=drive_link— Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125— Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york— SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:58) Lyft Investment Thesis (03:12) Valuation Comparison and Market Dynamics (04:20) Free Cash Flow and Buyback Potential (05:17) Stock Dilution and Future Prospects (07:18) Short Interest and Acquisition Rumors (08:55) Short Interest and Market Sentiment (12:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (13:16) Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions (17:08) Macro Trends and Economic Outlook (23:54) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (25:09) Roundup Continues (26:09) Trump's Economic Policies and Market Impact (30:10) Tariff Tensions: US-Canada Trade War (31:14) Canadian Political Shake-Up (31:52) Market Movements and Sector Rotations (32:35) AI's Impact on the Market (34:23) Small Caps vs. NASDAQ: Investment Strategies (36:18) Trump's Tariff Tactics (36:46) Economic Growth and Treasury Policies (46:06) Bitcoin and Crypto Market (48:03) Looking Ahead: Market Predictions (54:10) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the market implications of the latest DeepSeek innovation, the evolving AI geopolitical game theory, and the winners and losers of the AI race. We also delve into the tension between AI productivity and employment, a framework for viewing the different AI models, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) DeepSeek's Revolutionary AI Model (04:43) Implications for GPU Demand and Training Costs (07:48) Geopolitical Tensions and AI Development (16:04) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (17:10) Future of AI and Technological Adoption (26:56) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (28:11) Winners and Losers in the AI Market (29:18) Energy Consumption and AI (31:27) The Future of AI Models (33:15) AI's Impact on Employment and Economy (36:14) The Reality of AI Advancements (43:46) Economic Models and AI (49:46) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of Trump and his executive orders, the outlook for inflation, and the yield curve steepening. We also delve into warning signals for equities, CEO mentions of economic slowdown, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EK4VxLf1UrpTCmKGgBVE0PeIxr3ek4f-/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Introduction and Guest Introduction (01:20) Market Overview and Trump's Influence (02:16) Fed's Interest Rate Strategy (04:38) Executive Orders and Market Reactions (14:55) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (16:01) Roundup Continues (18:53) Inflation and Economic Indicators (24:09) Challenging Market Assumptions (24:34) Trump's Influence on Market Sentiment (25:13) Inflation and Energy Prices (27:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (28:26) FOMC Voting Members Rotation (29:18) Analyzing the Yield Curve (33:04) Market Reactions and Predictions (39:11) Economic Slowdown and Recession Risks (48:04) Final Thoughts and Market Outlook __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Brent Donnelly: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Make FX Great Again (01:51) Tariff Expectations (07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar (13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (14:39) The Fed Reaction Function (17:27) Equity Valuations (19:23) FX Framework (28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (29:19) Carry Trades (34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises (42:17) Canada & CAD/USD (47:21) China & Yuan (53:40) Long-Term Dollar View (56:55) Learn More About Brent’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss what the latest CPI data means for markets, whether we’re in the early stages of the credit cycle, and trading Inauguration day. We also delve into the crypto reserve debate, the potential BOJ rate hike, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UR_BWMbyzFgxqrCEZ6DjhGK36TDJQEjX/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:44) CPI & Inflation (09:03) Yields, Positioning, & Market Whipsaw (12:27) Growth Debate (22:01) Ads (23:16) Equity Contra-Indicators (27:54) Inauguration Day: Buy Or Sell The News? (31:14) Crypto Reserve Debate (35:11) Bonds Recycling Into Other Assets (37:05) Fiat Debasement & Trump (39:23) Japan & BOJ Rate Hike (45:20) Nasdaq Vs Small Caps __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Pies joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2025, his view of the housing market, and why he thinks inflation fears are overblown. We also delve into equity valuations, the long bond trade, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Pies: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) 2025 Outlook (05:50) Economic Tensions & The Bond Market (11:21) Fed Terminal Rate & Restrictiveness (16:29) Housing Market & Employment (23:43) Impact Of LA Fires (26:48) Ads (28:45) December SEP (32:25) Rate Cut Expectations (34:56) Inflation Overview (39:50) Debating Case For Sticky Inflation (43:12) Equity Valuations (50:19) Growth Vs Value (52:59) Long Bond Trade (56:23) Commodities Outlook (57:41) Learn More About Warren’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:55) December Jobs Report (06:16) Other Labor Market Data (07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over? (11:24) DAS 2025 (14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025? (20:57) Global Margin Call (27:10) Dollar Dilemma (29:58) Global Bond Yields (33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics (35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening (37:25) Crypto Politics (39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (40:05) Ads (42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't) (45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria (49:12) NFP Prediction (49:52) TLT & Positioning (52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis (57:05) Yield Solutions (59:59) 2-Year Trade (01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration (01:04:22) Public Spending Problem (01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything (01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he’s tactically bearish, the US dollar’s implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:54 Macro & Crypto Overview 10:01 Implications Of Hawkish Fed 13:37 Inauguration & The US Dollar 18:43 Ads 20:41 Crypto Market Outlook 24:39 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 27:36 Crypto Shopping List 33:02 Bottom Signals 36:53 2025 Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonny Matthews joins the show to discuss Fed policy and its impact on yields, US productivity, and resilience in the labor market. We also delve into the Trump Administration's potential impact on markets, the outlook for US equities, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jonny Matthews: https://x.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://super-macro.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) No Recession Call (04:04) Fed Meeting (06:43) Fed Policy & Era Of Higher Rates (10:27) US Vs Global Productivity (14:27) Global Growth Outlook (17:12) Inflation Overview (22:35) Income & Consumption Disparities (25:36) Impact Of Fed Policy (29:20) Ads (30:33) Labor Market Overview (35:42) Trump’s Potential Immigration Policy (38:12) Fading DOGE, Deregulation, & Tariffs (40:25) SOFR, Term Premium, & Central Bank Policy (47:42) Risk Assets & US Equities (50:52) Fed Gilt Crisis Moment? (52:33) Alternative Assets (55:05) Euro & US Dollar (57:10) Learn More About Jonny’s Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, David Cervantes and DCP join the show to discuss the FOMC post-mortem, the similarities to the 90s business cycle, and managing emotions in markets. We also reflect on the COVID crash, dig into expectations for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow David Cervantes: https://x.com/EconstratPB David’s Substack: https://substack.com/@pinebrookcap Follow DCP: https://x.com/Dcpcooks Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:12) Donnie’s Background (08:00) David’s Trading Framework (09:08) FOMC Post-Mortem (19:19) Fed Guidance & Market Surprises (21:49) DCP’s Edge (23:55) New Government Regime (24:49) Reflecting On Trades (26:28) Similarities To The 90s (30:45) Ads (31:58) Interview Continues (33:11) So You Want To Be A Trader? (35:05) We’re Mid-Cycle, Not Late-Cycle (37:05) Managing Emotions (40:43) Trading Wisdom (44:52) Reflecting On The COVID Crash (51:55) Trading Insights (53:53) Trading Bonds Vs ES (59:16) 2025 Expectations (01:05:15) Trump & The Deficit (01:07:08) Closing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with On the Margin, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Macro Outlook (07:14) Philosophical Vibe Shift (12:39) Financial Nihilism (16:40) Unpacking The Next Administration (20:11) Misaligned Incentives (23:23) Ads (25:24) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (38:15) BSR & The US Dollar (47:06) Crypto Market Outlook (50:04) Crypto Product Market Fit (55:18) Fundamentals Bearish? (57:07) Learn More About Travis’ Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing (06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over? (12:01) Trump Policy Impact (14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike (20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook (22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation (27:43) VIX & Market Positioning (31:46) China Risk (33:42) Ads (35:36) Systematic Volatility (37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus (39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities (43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path (46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks (51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending (52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook (54:58) Bessent Economic Plan (57:15) 1998 Framework (59:55) Productive Capacity Boom (01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:44) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:21) Immigration Impact (09:50) 2025 Surprises (12:34) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (15:01) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:25) Peak Hawkishness (21:59) Long-Term Rates (23:25) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:34) Ads (27:27) Fed Surveys & Politics (29:15) The Neutral Rate (31:13) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:57) Reverse Repo (38:38) Treasury Coupon Issuance (40:25) Equities & The Dollar (44:01) Gold & Crypto (45:54) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (50:28) Main Takeaways __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the small cap trade, the upcoming Fed decision, and whether inflation risks are overblown. We also delve into China’s balance sheet recession, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy, housing affordability, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qTKN9-iNXNqFBgZSx03BFmi24BiaCeQv/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:31) Small Business Optimism & Trump Trades (07:58) Mag7 Blow Off Top? (09:42) Unwind In Momentum Factor (11:18) China Balance Sheet Recession (13:34) Small Caps, Liquidity, & The Dollar (15:30) Dovish Fed (16:51) Labor Market & Claims (21:38) Fed Policy & Global Easing (26:00) Rate Steepening (27:13) Ads (29:15) Trump Peace Dividend (32:51) Inflation & CPI (36:22) Continuing Goldilocks (39:52) Bitcoin (43:50) MicroStrategy & Convert Financing (50:53) Vol Controllers (53:48) Geopolitics (55:23) Cash Bubble (57:07) New Credit Cycle (59:17) Housing Affordability __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview (06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate (14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation (21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation (22:54) Ads (25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative (27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing (28:27) Taxes & Government Spending (31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms (34:29) The K-Shaped Economy (37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles (39:05) Politics & The Oil Market (41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff (56:38) Does The Deficit Matter? (58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration (01:01:14) The Bid For Duration (01:04:57) Warren’s Trading __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the November jobs report, the Fed’s cutting path, and the goldilocks scenario for 2025. We also delve into the different R* models, MicroStrategy, the Milken moment for crypto, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TxUrZZsIWtXdqbDS-DDJL7EduaP_pdpE/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up (03:33) November Non-Farm Payrolls (08:31) Economic Slowdown or Stability? (10:20) Debating The Fed’s Cutting Path (16:51) Hot Economy Vs Growth Scare (24:24) Macro Analysis & Shorting Oil (30:35) Ads (32:38) We Are In Goldilocks (36:29) Stocks Vs Commodities (38:12) Inflation Turning Point (39:40) Different R* Models (46:07) History Of Junk Bonds (48:11) Milken Moment For Crypto (52:11) Monetizing Volatility (53:26) Bitcoin & Evolving Options Market (56:40) MicroStrategy Risks (01:03:23) Enhancing Yield With Volatility (01:06:13) Debating Bitcoin’s Future — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Dan Tapiero joins the show to discuss why he’s unbelievably bullish on the macro, his introduction to Bitcoin & blockchain, and the US dollar. We also delve into the regulatory changes he’s most excited for, the generational shift upon us, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Dan Tapiero: https://x.com/DTAPCAP Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you’re an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:22) Dan's Background (08:10) Introduction To Bitcoin & Crypto (16:48) Bitcoin, Sovereigns, & Regulation (20:42) Most Exciting Regulatory Changes (23:19) MicroStrategy's Bold Play (25:14) Ads (26:58) Macro Overview (33:01) Unbelievably Bullish (38:17) Generational Shift (41:07) Keep A Long-Term View __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Michael Kao: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake (10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps (14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence (17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull (26:24) Ads (28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out? (34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (44:29) December Fed Decision (47:14) The Oil Market (52:01) Peace Dividend __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze (06:26) Risk Management Strategies (17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced? (25:48) Ads (27:32) Volatility Seasonality (30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation (40:35) Shift In Global Collateral (52:21) Volatility Is Vitality (56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy (03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech (09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields (13:38) Government Spending & DOGE (19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar (22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps (24:56) Ads (26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria (33:24) Bullish Market Signals (37:41) Stifling Volatility (40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin (43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook (48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession (53:34) Differentiating Assets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:27) Stephen's Background (02:34) Context Behind The Paper (04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade (09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency (11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining (14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs (17:28) Economics Of Tariffs (25:37) Currency Offsetting (32:25) Ads (33:58) Trump's Economic Policies (45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs (49:18) Dollar Devaluation (55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury (01:01:46) The Big Picture (01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets (01:06:43) Closing Remarks __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist (06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift (14:14) Forward Guidance (15:54) Summarizing George's Position (17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds (21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy (33:28) Ads (35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued) (37:18) What Is Driving The Economy? (45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed (49:51) What Stage Are We In? (53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate (01:01:23) Economic Outlook (01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:27 Election Outcome 04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling 09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing? 15:53 Market Impact Of Election 23:04 Ads 24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued) 25:35 Offsides Hedging 30:40 Powell & The Fed 36:37 December FOMC Meeting 40:47 2025 Themes To Watch 44:39 Short Gold? 46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs 52:19 New Market Regime — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) FOMC Takeaways (02:48) Is Policy Restrictive? (07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced? (09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What (12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy (15:40) Quantitative Tightening (18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do (22:20) Ledger Ad (23:05) The Labor Market (26:33) Election Impact On The Fed (31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation? (35:22) Fiscal Deficits (42:51) Asset Allocation (44:42) Credit Spreads (46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy (49:58) F*ck Valuations (52:11) Follow Bob's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:11) Pollster Miscalculations (12:03) Societal Impact Of Election (19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact (27:52) Ledger Ad (28:37) How Will The Fed React? (33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar (35:38) Volatility & Market Structure (43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect (52:06) Market Outlook (56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) NFP Report Takeaways (14:50) Quant Corner (24:31) Ledger Ad (25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding? (37:31) QRA (48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market? (04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique? (07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates (09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity (12:39) Election Impact on Markets (15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields (22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets (26:39) Earnings vs Valuation (34:52) Ledger Ad (35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing? (37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk (42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges (45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates (49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter? (56:42) Learn More About Jurrien __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:33) Path of Interest Rates (08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone? (10:46) Overdone Currency Moves (12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility (16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging (20:29) Election Probability Distribution (27:17) Ledger Ad (28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates (31:10) Inflation Resurgence (33:18) Global Coordination (36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade (39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency (47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy (52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market (55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle (09:24) Is this Cycle Different? (12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles (18:20) The Cyclical Economy (21:52) The Housing Sector (26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing (30:44) Measuring the Labor Market (34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims (39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims (42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions (47:12) The Unemployment Rate (50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve (57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation? (01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss election trades and Trump’s impact on markets, the number of Fed rate cuts currently priced in, and the ongoing bull market in gold. We also delve into the outlook for Bitcoin, how to measure a hard or soft landing, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_VTM8KHaUHEG4hawqaDJNMF8TddDRM-t/view?usp=drive_link — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:42) Economy is Doing Well (05:09) Earnings vs Economic Data (08:29) Actionable Market Ideas (11:38) Election & Trump Trades (18:46) Small Caps & Gold (21:34) Bitcoin & Microstrategy (24:45) Contrarian Gold Take (27:52) Trump Trade Hedges (29:19) Fed Rate Cutting Path (33:07) Economic Growth Under Trump (38:12) Volatility & Election Hedging (41:50) Measuring Hard & Soft Landings (45:52) Economy Under Biden/Harris (49:45) AI & The Future Economy — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to discuss his perspective on equities, the subsectors he’s trading, and his outlook on commodities. We also delve into the Trump trades, the metals market, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Tony Greer: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Perspective on Equities, Rates, & Commodities (06:38) Win-Win for Equities (09:59) Election & Trump Trades (13:48) A Trader's Market (17:07) Fed & Macro (20:09) Bond Yields & Volatility (22:56) Market Sentiment Push & Pull (25:09) Oil & Geopolitics (30:31) Gold Market (35:29) Precious & Base Metals (37:57) FX Market (39:04) Bitcoin & Crypto (41:28) What Would Make Tony Bearish? (43:03) Tony's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we sat down at Permissionless to discuss the latest CPI and labor market data, the likely noise in the upcoming labor data, and the impact of coordinated central banking. We also delve into the election, its potential impact on crypto, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:26) Inflation & Labor Market Data (06:03) Inflation Mechanics (10:13) Labor Market Noise (14:13) Coordinated Central Banking (19:26) Bifurcated Economy (23:45) Is Macro Bullish or Bearish? (30:11) Crypto & the Election (36:18) Bitcoin Outlook & Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jonah and Avi join Felix to discuss the current macro regime, Bitcoin and the crypto market, and the impact of forward guidance. They also delve into the ongoing uncertainty throughout markets, the Fed risking its credibility, and the economic bifurcation playing into crypto. — Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:20) Oil Market & Geopolitics (05:39) Macro's Role In Crypto Markets (08:41) Fundamental View of Bitcoin & Crypto (14:00) Bitcoin & Interest Rates (21:18) The Forward Guidance Regime (25:00) Economic Growth vs Stimulus (27:57) Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing Crypto (30:49) Economic Uncertainty (33:57) Unaffordability & Wealth Disparity (36:37) The Fed's Credibility (40:19) Economic Bifurcation (45:10) History of Asset Bubbles (46:48) Generational Wealth (51:02) Price Predictions — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest bullish jobs report, the impact of globally-coordinated easing, and the Middle East's impact on markets. We also delve into the recent SOFR explosion, election pricing in markets, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S24tXpteiZg1jilfU8aXk0L_NtXFLXVg/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Non-Farm Payrolls (10:59) Fixed Income & High Yield (12:43) Global Coordinated Easing Cycle (16:20) US Dollar & US Exceptionalism (18:52) Global Easing Driving Growth & Liquidity (22:08) The Big Picture (26:32) Permissionless Ad (27:11) Oil, Gold, & the Middle East (31:37) Global Collateral Shift (33:19) Middle East Tail Risk (36:23) SOFR Explosion & QT (42:09) Simplifying Macro Trading (45:25) Economic Politics (48:28) Crypto Markets (50:31) Election Pricing in Markets (55:56) Permissionless Next Week — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Harley Bassman: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Check out Harley’s website: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 Implied Forward Rates 03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession 07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance 11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields 13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity 18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread 23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate 26:11 The Fed's Master Plan 29:43 Permissionless Ad 30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation? 35:19 Labor Market & Immigration 38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced? 40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt 42:03 Market Opportunities 44:33 Equities & Rates 47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss China’s economic stimulus, the resilience of the labor market, and the GDP/GDI revisions. We also delve into global liquidity & equity multiples, things to actually worry about in the future, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13soXH2F5Zv1f3SvJO6Oj5D7d1gtdBFEJ/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction   (01:14) China & Economic Stimulus   (08:11) The World is Changing   (12:26) Oil Market   (15:45) Unpacking the Labor Market   (23:27) Permissionless Ad   (24:04) Interview Continues   (25:15) Central Bank Politics   (27:16) GDP & GDI   (32:26) Global Liquidity & Equity Multiples   (38:26) Things to be Worried About   (45:40) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework (04:56) GDP & Economic Growth (14:11) Interest & Payment Expense (16:17) Exports (17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together (19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates (23:31) Manufacturing Sector (30:31) The Business Cycle (35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators (38:21) Inflation (40:25) Liquidity Breakdown (53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy (56:42) Prometheus Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Victory Lap (03:38) Quinn's Framework (06:11) Bullish Rate Cut? (09:30) Summary of Economic Projections (14:32) Bullish Market Signals (18:05) The World Trade (21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle (24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk (27:50) Private Credit (29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt (31:43) Permissionless Ad (32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle (34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI (37:13) Economic Expectations (39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls (44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone (50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity (53:32) The Banana Zone (58:58) Monetary Matters (01:01:09) Balancing Market Views — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Overview of the Economy (02:42) Recession vs Normalization (05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut (10:17) Are We Price For Recession? (12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts (19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong (25:49) The Fiscal Impulse (28:55) Trend of US Growth (31:02) Permissionless Ad (31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials (40:31) Chinese Economy (44:32) Asset Allocation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun. Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270 Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948 __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession? (08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 (15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession (25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China (33:26) Permissionless Ad (34:25) China's Trade Surplus (38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It (45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo (01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_inc Jack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Trust Preferred CDOs (08:44) Starting Hildene Capital Management (10:44) Buying Trust Preferred CDOs (13:22) Deferred Payments (20:13) Trust Preferreds Regulated Out (23:15) Philadelphia Fed Paper (27:38) Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets (34:33) Private Credit (37:55) Hildene's Market Niche (44:11) The Structured Credit Market (51:44) Structured Security Correlations (55:20) Credit Market Risks (01:00:00) The Realities Of Private Credit (01:08:27) TruPS CDOs (01:11:03) Private Credit CLO Market (01:14:48) Risks & Rewards (01:18:58) Collateralized Loan Market Performance (01:25:28) Closing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Laila Kollmorgen, Portfolio Manager, CLO Tranche for Pinebridge Investments, joins Jack for a Fireside Chat on Forward Guidance to discuss why collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have rallied so much over the past two years as most of the fixed-income world has suffered enormously. Laila explains why she likes the structure of CLOs and why she thinks there will be an opportunity to be selective going forward as credit fundamentals begin to soften and valuations have increased. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Laila Kollmorgen’s articles on Pinebridge: https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/after-the-clo-rally-selectivity-will-be-key-as-fundamentals-shift https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/leveraged-finance-asset-allocation-insights-issuer-selection-is-key-as-loans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:15) What Is A Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)? (05:37) CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) vs. CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations): How CLOs Fared Much Better Than CDOs During The Great Financial Crisis (13:13) Market Value CDOs and CLO Reinvestment Periods (19:45) Why CLOs Have Performed So Well (24:54) If Silicon Valley Bank Had Invested In CLOs Instead of Long-Duration Paper (Agency MBS & Treasurys), Perhaps They Would Still Be Around! (35:26) CLO Valuations And Laila's Base Case For CLOs As Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Is About To Begin (41:21) Have Economic Fundamentals Begun To Soften? (43:37) Refinancing Risk (i.e. if CLO Manager Pays Off Tranche Liabilities At Par To Refinance At Tighter Spread) (46:32) Some CLO Investors Were Buying Callable Paper Above Part (>100)! (That's "Crazy" Says Kollmorgen) (51:59) The Maturity Wall For High Yield and Corporate Credit Has Been Extended (56:13) How Might Various Tranches Of CLO Asset Class Perform In A Recession? (59:41) Risk of Default and Risk of Distressed Sales (01:03:53) Views On Liquidity and Volatility (01:09:04) Not A Huge Fan of Private Credit CLOs (01:13:37) Thoughts on "Creditor on Creditor Violence" (01:17:10) Red Flags to Avoid In CLO World __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor befor

This interview with Matthew Sigel explores the bull case for bitcoin, its future as a reserve asset, and the economics of bitcoin miners. We also discuss miners pivoting to data centers, stablecoins, crypto regulation and much more. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on September 4, 2024. Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin Miners' AI Arbitrage Play to Boost Revenue": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-miners-ai-arbitrage-play-to-boost-revenue/ Sigel's piece, "Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exchange and Reserve Asset": https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-bitcoin-2050-valuation-scenarios-global-medium-of-exchange-and-reserve-asset/ __ Follow Matthew Sigel on Twitter https://x.com/matthew_sigel Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) How Matthew Got Into Crypto (05:10) Fake & Bias News In Finance (07:51) The Case For Bitcoin (10:48) Bitcoin As A Reserve Asset (18:33) Nation States Leveraging Bitcoin (22:40) Profitability Of Bitcoin Mining (24:22) Catalysts For Bitcoin Adoption (26:52) Bitcoin As A Medium Of Exchange (28:42) Bitcoin Risks (33:34) Is The Bitcoin Supply Flexible? (35:08) Bitcoin Miner Economics (41:02) Bitcoin Miners Repurposing Their Energy (46:31) Bitcoin Vs Altcoins (53:53) Biggest Crypto Overweights & Underweights (58:09) Stablecoins (01:05:19) Crypto Politics & Regulation (01:07:40) NFTs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/ Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold (06:32) Investing In Gold Companies (09:14) How To Value A Gold Company (16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings? (19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices (22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks (25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk (36:54) Thinking About Depreciation (40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies (44:38) Gold Royalty Companies (52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects (58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Jonny Mathews explores why he believes we aren’t headed for a recession, how real consumption will likely drive Q3 GDP higher, and why he thinks unemployment will moderate. We also discuss the market opportunities he’s seeing, hitting home run trades, and much more. __ Follow Jonny Mathews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macro Subscribe to Super Macro at https://super-macro.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Are We Headed For A Recession? (03:09) Income Growth Is Driving Consumption (05:45) Household Savings (07:44) Unemployment Will Moderate (15:40) Credit Markets (19:48) Permissionless Ad (20:48) Job Market Revisions (23:47) Opportunities In Fixed Income (27:32) Trading Interest Rates (30:53) Will Inflation Continue To Fall? (35:42) Labor Market Data (39:31) Opportunities In The UK (50:30) Home Run Trades (52:55) The Gold Market (55:33) China Outlook (01:01:24) S&P 500 Earnings (01:05:29) AI & Productivity (01:09:29) Super Macro Note (01:12:05) Jonny's Trading Experience (01:18:13) Stocks Over Bonds (01:20:27) Cumulative Personal Savings __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more. __ Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View (08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not (17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency (18:53) Permissionless Ad (19:51) Interview Continues (26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong (37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself (42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields? (49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money? (01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024. __ Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market (18:28) How India's Market Improved (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India (33:09) India Inflation (35:31) India's Imports & Exports (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations (45:58) Indian Investment Goals (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds. __ Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy (02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates (03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule (06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down? (08:33) Real Interest Rates (11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate? (14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle (18:41) Election Insights (20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue (23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more. – Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) The Risks Of Financialization (02:07) Financial Market Signals (05:37) China & The Global Economy (09:44) China's Problems Are The World's Problem (15:15) US Economic Resilience (21:07) How Good Is The US Economy? (27:11) Fed Vs Wall St. Priorities (30:28) Comparing Major Economies (37:18) China's Economic Advantages (40:44) Where China Spends Its Money (49:44) China's Growing Influence (53:01) The US Economy & Inflation (01:10:31) European Economy (01:11:58) Asian Economies (01:14:48) Camp Kotok __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024. __ Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn https://blckwrks.co/3SUlCPt Follow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurushina Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) How Eric Got Interested In Emerging Markets (03:38) Natalia's Introduction To Economics (05:55) How Big Is The EM Bond Market? (11:07) Why EM Bonds Have Outperformed (14:40) Weakness From Developed Markets (17:35) The Yen's Impact On EMs (26:24) BOJ Vs Brazilian Central Bank (29:16) Mexico's Fiscal Orthodoxy (30:58) Benefits Of Floating Currencies (34:32) Making Money In EM FX (36:53) Signal For EMs To Cut Rates (38:38) Role Of Hedge Funds In EM FX (41:25) Diversification In EMs (46:24) Sub-Saharan Africa (51:48) Importance Of India (59:40) Investing In China (01:04:49) China's Growth Model (01:17:10) Emerging Market Reserves (01:25:01) De-Dollarization __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI. -- Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant (03:07) Quest Hedge Fund (04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy (11:50) Trend Following Examples (16:47) Permissionless Ad (17:44) Interview Continues (19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded (22:52) Statistical Arbitrage (27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage (32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds (33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches (39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies (41:34) Private Market Investing (48:29) Volatility Strategies (54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook (01:02:26) Risks To Quest (01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027. __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:26 Why George Robertson Is Bullish 04:12 Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy? 05:43 Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market 09:33 Unemployment And The Labor Market 13:22 Government Spending And The Economy 20:16 GDP Is Booming 21:13 VanEck Ad 26:40 The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates 30:47 Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy? 35:46 Nominal GDP And Interest Rates 52:18 How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve 56:47 Rates Are Artificially Low 01:18:05 How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates 01:29:15 Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher 01:34:09 Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations 01:59:54 Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse 02:03:26 Reforming Entitlement Spending 02:08:36 The US Will Solve All Problems 02:15:34 The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt 02:24:07 How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy 02:30:26 Learn More About George And Mel's Work 02:32:15 Thoughts On Small Caps __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is). __ Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Brent's Market Views (06:56) Brent's Dollar View (13:44) VanEck Ad (14:26) Interview Continues (17:57) Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop" (19:41) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (20:20) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer (26:07) Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way (36:46) Permissionless Ad (37:53) Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market (43:19) Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze (48:37) Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar (01:02:00) Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports? (01:04:51) Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large (01:13:03) Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization? (01:16:17) Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://x.com/NoelConvex Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation. ___ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99 Mike Green’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report (05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now? (06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher (28:35) VanEck Ad (29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces (32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies? (42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining? (48:40) Permissionless Ad (49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger (53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More (01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices (01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup" (01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) VanEck Ad (13:14) Interview Continues (19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September? (24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market? (25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market (31:41) The Housing Market (36:41) Permissionless Ad (37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign" (47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates (50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President? (54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another (57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed) (01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market (10:08) VanEck Ad (10:48) Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically (19:27) The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans) (25:04) How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs? (28:59) Permissionless Ad (29:58) The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age? (41:34) Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession? (46:53) What Is The Private Credit Money Used For? (52:57) Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform? (58:51) Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace (01:03:02) Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities) (01:04:40) Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets (01:07:02) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Tommy Thornton on Twitter https://x.com/TommyThornton Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:52) Tech Stocks Are In A "Bubble," Argues Tommy (15:29) Earnings Season So Far: Tesla and Google (20:51) VanEck Ad (21:32) Interview Continues (25:33) Nvidia and Apple (37:03) What Tom Is Short (39:39) What Tom Is Long (51:49) Permissionless Ad (52:51) Interview Continues (01:00:26) National Debt and Recession Odds (01:03:48) What Would It Take For Tommy To Turn Bullish? (01:14:28) Tom's Story About Charlie Munger __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944 Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)? (08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance" (20:52) VanEck Ad (24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing") (29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic (33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns? (45:43) Permissionless Ad (46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment? (59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration? (01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets" (01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too (01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook (04:59) Bank of America (12:54) VanEck Ad (15:39) Charles Schwab (20:27) Credit Cards and Auto (27:21) Permissionless Ad (28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks (40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up (44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity (47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers (56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Recent writings by Michael Pettis: “Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en “Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/ “Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model (09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard (17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China (20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s (24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.) (28:06) VanEck Ad (28:46) Interview Continues (36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists (49:58) Permissionless Ad (50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"? (57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort" (01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit (01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances (01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World (01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control) (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Peter Boockvar on Twitter https://twitter.com/pboockvar Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession (12:26) VanEck Ad (13:06) Interview Continues (21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real? (48:07) Japan (54:36) China (01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/ Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:10) Railroads (19:50) VanEck Ad (20:30) Airlines __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far? (05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg (10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market (15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way? (19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation? (21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods (24:35) VanEck Ad (25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs" (26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package" (28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg (36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies (41:01) The Chinese Labor Market (43:09) Permissionless Ad (44:15) The Chinese Stock Market (49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles (54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden (01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending? (01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged" (01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China) (01:14:11) Chinese Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022 (19:36) VanEck Ad (20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism? (26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy? (39:56) Permissionless III Ad (40:54) AI And Labor Productivity (54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats (01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024? (01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks (01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions (01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow RenMac website: https://t.co/VJIDWiWMkc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing? (10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election (21:54) VanEck Ad (22:36) Odds Of A Recession (29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is? (48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks (58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jonah van Bourg on Twitter https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x podcast on Twitter https://x.com/1000xPod Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland (04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight" (06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher (09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies (22:01) VanEck Ad (28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar? (30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal? (34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead (45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins (48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins (50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher (58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options (01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates (01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries (01:13:34) Natural Gas (01:20:25) Uranium and Gold (01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy! -- Follow tZERO on Twitter https://x.com/tZERO Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR (16:05) VanEck Ad (16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy (22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading (24:57) What Is tZERO? (36:43) What Is A Security? (38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity (48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering (56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Midas’ website: https://midas.app/ Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/ Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro (05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000 (07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021 (11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real) (16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This? (19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical (21:19) VanEck Ad (21:59) Palantir and Anduril (26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S. (30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022 (33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI) (36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto (39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain (44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis (47:50) Tether and Circle (49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.) (51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore (53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare (57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon? (58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas (59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc. (01:04:27) FedNow (01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem? (01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk (01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024 (01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech (01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now (07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market? (20:04) VanEck Ad (20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations (26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers (28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks (29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners (33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump (37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025) (40:13) China (46:32) Trump on Crypto (48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why? (54:12) Tarriff Basket (56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs) (58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company (01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English (01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed (01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished (01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks? (01:19:03) China's AI Stocks (01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now (01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX (01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman Follow Bancreek on Twitter https://x.com/bancreek Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The U.S. Labor Market (03:57) Tree Map Of Where New U.S. Jobs Are Being Created (It's A LOT In Healthcare and Government Sector) (19:50) VanEck Ad (23:17) The Growth In U.S. Government Jobs (28:39) U.S. Healthcare Industry Is Incentivized For High Prices And High Job Growth Is A Consequence (45:00) Homebuilding, Oil & Gas, and Retail (52:11) Inflation Masterclass: Differences Between CPI & PCE (01:11:35) Healthcare in PCE & CPI (01:28:46) With Housing Inflation Where It Is, It Is Nearly Statistically Impossible For Inflation To Be At Or Below The Fed's Target of 2% __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma (09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve (34:06) VanEck Ad (34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market) (38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy (43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective (48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products (50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 (01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 17:39 VanEck Ad __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation William English’s co-authored Chapter on the Fed’s Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml William English’s 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm “Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were (03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing? (07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy (09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021 (13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice (18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) (23:41) VanEck Ad (24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later (29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size (32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects? (36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect (44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020 (52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet (57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019 (01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction? (01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy? (01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://x.com/PPGMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure (05:20) "Froth" In Commodities (11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S. (19:41) VanEck Ad (20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be? (34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows (41:21) War And Finance (45:30) Bank of Japan (54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades (01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in! - - Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1 Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (03:24) Modular vs Integrated (11:47) Who are Appchains for? (28:58) Composability in Modular World (36:15) Monad's Endgame (39:47) Importance of Decentralization (48:05) Building Web3 Community -- Disclaimer: Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation. Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://x.com/jnordvig ExAnte Data on Twitter https://x.com/ExanteData MarketReader on Twitter https://x.com/MarketReaderInc Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) Japan (11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan (16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan (22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates? (25:03) VanEck Ad (26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go? (33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen (56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/ Jason Shapiro YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@crowdedmarketreport Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks (03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble (06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet" (13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner (20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here" (22:37) VanEck Ad (23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take (26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell (27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One (36:49) Bond Market Positioning (41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit (43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks (44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500) (51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth (56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks" (01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason (01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan (18:01) Is This Legal? (23:24) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) (28:32) Zillow’s Business Model (35:24) VanEck Ad (36:04) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change (39:39) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down (44:26) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits? (48:40) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes (54:11) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia (01:05:55) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC (01:11:59) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/ Follow Kyla Scanlon on Twitter https://x.com/kylascan Follow Kyla Scanlon on TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan Kyla Scanlon’s website https://kylascanlon.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) In This Economy? (07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now (11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (14:21) VanEck Ad (15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued) (19:45) Declinism & Doomerism (27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S. (32:46) Political Polarization (34:16) The Origin Of Money (36:10) MMT & Debt (40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties. Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024. James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0 Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0 Follow James Fishback on Twitter https://x.com/j_fishback Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:08) Job Offer And Title (12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro? (20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest) (23:48) Van Eck Ad (24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing" (31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro" (50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie" (56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial" (58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023 (01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment" (01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn (01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem" (01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative (01:19:17) Higher For Longer (01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election (01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve) (01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft (01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency (01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1 Mel Mattison’s book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Mel’s Background (04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years) (06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market (11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook (14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard” (17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”) (24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s (27:56) VanEck Ad (28:38) Why Now? (37:01) Great Depression (43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues (48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)? (59:14) Timing: 2027 (01:04:52) Social Security Funding (01:17:01) Gold and Inflation (01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Nick Givanovic on Twitter https://twitter.com/nickgiva1 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise (05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure (06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons (21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions (25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish (26:13) VanEck Ad (27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry? (28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia (33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert? (39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely) (54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market (01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks (01:07:49) The Labor Market (01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Keith Dicker on Twitter https://twitter.com/IceCapGlobal Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (01:07) An Overview Of Currencies (09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge (20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe (25:41) Economic Outlook (29:27) VanEck Ad (30:28) (34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies (36:23) Emerging Market Currencies (42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit (45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007 (49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY) (01:00:27) View On Stock Market (01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket (02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far (06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect (08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises (11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can (14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector? (21:43) VanEck ad (22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things (25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing? (26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy (29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market (32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off) (37:16) Macro Carry Strategies (42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields) (44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Two Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2Graybeards Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) The Script (02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes (04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession (07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market? (17:13) VaEck Ad (18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500) (22:35) Stock Bond Correlation (30:17) May Fed Meeting (31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts) (33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year (34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy (39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks? (41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise (44:53) The Japanese Yen (46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States (47:37) Chinese Equity Market (49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation? (19:38) VanEck Ad (20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle (29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future (34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation (42:03) The Fed (55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation (01:04:20) The Japanese Yen (01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) The QT Taper (05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting? (09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth (22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth (29:53) Consumer Spending (33:11) Layoffs in 2024 (36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest (38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit (47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine (51:24) Basel III Endgame (56:33) Dissents __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This is a paid sponsorship on behalf of Van Eck Associates Corporation. Today’s episode of Forward Guidance is a special fireside chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund. Kanade shares his philosophy for investing in crypto, and discusses his views on Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Kanade worked as a Credit Portfolio Manager at Millennium Management. Pranav’s Substack: https://killerapps.substack.com/ __ Follow Pranav Kanade on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneckpk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Kanade's Journey Into Crypto (10:43) Kanade's Investment Philosophy (13:55) Is Crypto In A New Bull Market? (35:32) Leverage And Funding Rates (38:01) How Macro (And The Federal Reserve) Impacts Crypto (48:45) Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) (52:42) Tesla (54:54) Crypto Venture Capitalists (VCs) (58:15) Eth vs. Sol (01:01:12) At This Stage, Most AI Crypto Things Is "Nonsense" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Harris Kupperman returns to the show for a discussion on how he is thinking about markets in 2024. Expecting bonds to continue selling off, will equity markets crumble or continue to melt up as fiscal dominance takes the reigns? Harris then shares his thoughts on some of the best opportunities he is seeing in markets such as oil, gold miners, uranium & more. Enjoy! -- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. -- Follow Harris: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Nobody's Ready For Higher Inflation (02:59) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (05:26) Gold (09:25) Oil (17:04) VanEck Ad (18:07) The Uranium Trade (30:37) Gaining Gold Exposure vs Owning The Miners (37:06) The A.I Trade & Investing In Your Circle Of Competence (39:59) Bitcoin (42:58) The Bond Market Sell-Off Can Continue -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Ben Miller Fundrise Co-Founder and CEO joins the show. We begin by discussing the U.S public debt problem as debt to GDP remains elevated over 100%. For the second half of the conversation, we deep dive into the current state of the U.S real estate market focusing primarily on CRE. Enjoy! -- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. -- Follow Ben: https://twitter.com/BenMillerise Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The U.S Debt Problem (08:25) Private vs Public Debt (15:02) VanEck Ad (16:05) Can The U.S Handle Higher Interest Rates Past 2024? (31:22) Commercial Real Estate & The Debt Duration Reset (35:26) The Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb (47:02) State Of The Housing Market (49:24) Prices Are Not At Distressed Levels... Yet (56:03) The Bull Case For CRE (01:05:59) The Real Estate Sector Is Praying For A Recession (01:07:28) Lending & Private Credit (01:12:16) What Happens If Rates Stay Higher For Longer? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Banking Net Interest Income Is "Flat To Down" (04:26) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (13:26) VanEck Ad (14:26) (17:31) Consumer Deposits Have Become "Toxic" (20:07) Schwab (22:15) Chris Expects Mid-Size Banks To "Do Better Than The Big Guys" Next Year (24:43) If There's No Recession, Are Bank Stocks Still Cheap? (27:41) Higher For Longer Will Continue To Be Bad For Banks' Core Business of Taking Deposits And Making Loans (30:19) Bank of America Should Be "Spanked" (32:59) Only A Few Fed Cuts Are Needed To Improve Banks' Position (35:13) Consumer Credit Continues To Be Fine ("Not Even At 2019 Levels") (37:10) Credit Risk Issues For Banks Are Primarily In CRE (38:12) New York Community Bank

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have two things in common: they both correctly predicted the renewed bull market in stocks and they both have been guests on The Forward Guidance podcast. That is where the similarities end, as Michael and George have entirely different explanations for what is driving the surge in equity prices. While Michael is renowned for his models on Global Liquidity and closely tracks the changes in central bank balance sheets (most notably the Fed’s), George dismisses the Fed entirely and thinks that monetary authorities have effectively zero influence on the economy and stock market. What ensues is a heated debate not just about what is driving the stock market and economy but about the very nature of money and credit creation itself. Recorded on April 10, 2024. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Michael’s Substack https://t.co/7jRGW9iR0S George’s Substack https://themonetaryfrontier.substack.com/ Michael’s Book https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) Jack's Intro (02:28) Michael's Opening Statement (06:09) George's Opening Statement (18:17) The Draining of The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (24:59) VanEck Ad (26:03) (28:38) The Portfolio Rebalancing Theory (I.E. How Quantitative Easing (QE) Theoretically Works) (45:21) Duration Impact of U.S. Treasury Issuing Longer-Maturity Paper (51:39) Spread Between Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yield And 10-Year Treasury Yield (01:12:09) There's A Distortion In The Yield Curve, That's For Sure" (01:17:47) Beyond The Fed's Balance Sheet (01:23:18) Jack's Comment On Cause And Effect (01:25:07) Views On Markets: George And Michael Remain Very Bullish __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Mark Dow has had experience in the global monetary system, having worked at the IMF, as an advisor to three Presidents, and at many central banks around the world. But he thinks that generally, monetary plumbing is given too much credit for the gyrations of asset prices and economic outcomes. He joins Forward Guidance to share why. Recorded on April 9, 2024. __ Follow Mark Dow on Twitter https://twitter.com/mark_dow Follow Mark’s Other Account, Behavioral Macro https://twitter.com/BehavioralMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) How Much Does Monetary Policy Actually Matter? (07:27) The Fed Matters In A Crisis (12:11) Psychology Impacts Stock Market Valuations More Than Interest Rates (16:41) ...But Interest Rate Fall Stimulates Housing Mortgage Credit Creation, Doesn't It? (20:48) Mark Argues Mortgage Spread Not Very Affected By Quantitative Easing (QE) - Jack Pushes Back (26:11) VanEck Ad (27:13) (30:51) QE's Impact on Bond Yields And The Difficulty Of Determining What Is Cause And What Is Effect (39:39) The Wealth Effect Has Been Very Weak (41:36) Mark Argues The Bulk Of Inflation Was Caused By Transitory Supply-Side Factors (51:29) Federal Reserve's Role In U.S. Treasury Market (58:54) Mark's View On The Narrative That Fed Will Monetize U.S. Fiscal Deficits (01:00:51) Gold and Real Rates (01:08:04) Changes In Monetary System Since 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (01:14:51) Fed Balance Sheet Policy DOES Matter For Institutional Fixed-Income Portfolios Sensitive To A Few Basis Points In Bond Spreads (01:18:49) Mark's Market Views: Is He Still Bullish On Stocks? (01:21:34) Mark's Trading Framework Using Technicals and Behavioral Economics __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right now. But as money flows into risk assets, valuations become stretched. Treussard has trouble with the high valuations in the U.S. market, and sees opportunities in the cheaper European and Japanese markets. He also shares his views on the risk of the “engineered yield” that comes from strategies that sell options explicitly or implicitly. Filmed on April 2, 2024. __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us About Treussard Capital Management: https://www.treussard.com/ 2004 Paper on Bubbles with Earl Thompson and Charles Hickson: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp836.pdf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Hallmarks Of A Financial Bubble: New Technology and Valuations Stretching Far Beyond Fundamentals (05:24) How Bubbles Remake Social Orders (07:25) Credit Bubbles Vs. Equity Bubbles (10:00) The Rise of Private Credit (11:44) In Wealth Management, Private Credit Tends To Be "More Sold Than Bought" (15:25) Private Credit Is "Concerning" But "Not A Bubble" (17:05) U.S. Stocks Are Expensive (19:55) Trade Wars & Geopolitical Blockades Are A Serious Risk To Nvidia (26:49) Europe and Japan (29:08) VanEck Ad (30:10) T-Bill And Chill Has Been Drastically Outperformed By Stock Market Beta (31:03) Investment Framework For The New Cold War (43:58) How Option Theory Applies To Economics, Investing, And Life (49:35) Jonathan's Work As A Risk Manager During 2008 (55:53) Beware "Engineered Yield" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024. __ Blind Squirrel Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro Substack https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker (03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s (13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market (20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started? (23:55) VanEck Ad (24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business (29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market (36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh (40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales (44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds (50:18) Tesla (53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.) (54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers (01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis (01:12:50) Macro (01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis (01:22:12) Options __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jason Hsu of Rayliant joins Forward Guidance to share his view on the particulars of the Chinese equity market. Hsu argues that the “brutal” bear market is close to over and makes the bull case for onshore Chinese stocks. Recorded on March 28, 2024. __ Jason Hsu on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu/ About Rayliant https://rayliant.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The "Brutal" Bear Market In Chinese Equities (12:49) In China, It's Not The Homebuyers Who Are Indebted... It's The Builders (aka Developers) (19:31) Spillovers Of China's Real Estate Correction (23:41) Impact of Real Estate Issues On China's Banking System (26:39) Beijing's Biggest Fixation: How To Avoid Japanese Real Estate Bust Of 1990s (33:58) Regulatory Scrutiny On Tech And Other Industries Has Been Reduced (38:09) VanEck Ad (38:52) 5-10 Years From Now, People Will Look At Now AS Bottom In Chinese Equities (39:55) China's Ambition To Move Up The Value Chain (43:04) Just How Cheap Are Chinese Stocks? (43:59) Who Are The Investors In The Chinese Stock Market? (46:08) Immense Pessimism Has Gripped Chinese Stock Investors (47:16) What Causes Chinese Stocks To Go Up Or Down? (49:06) China's Role In Emerging Market Equity Portfolios (51:50) What Moves Emerging Market (EM) Stocks As A Category? (55:53) Latin American, Middle East, and Africa (57:23) The Role of Diversification and "Quantamental" Analysis (01:04:45) State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - What Do Investors Really Own? (01:08:29) Biggest Overweights. (Mexico) and Underweights (India) (01:11:00) Mechanics Of "The Beijing Put" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Lawrence McDonald, New York Times Bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book, “When Markets Speak.” McDonald argues that the world is on the precipice of a higher-inflation regime that will cause a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital from technology stocks to producers of natural resources such as oil, gas, copper, Uranium, and gold. Filmed on March 27, 2024. __ Follow Lawrence McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/Convertbond McDonald’s latest book, “When Markets Speak”: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities/dp/0593727495 McDonald’s first book, “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers”: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=9F5dM&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=wepDC&pd_rd_r=e57c52f3-38c7-4f25-bf51-8a804dfd2f13&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) The End Of Austerity: Huge Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Has Created A New Inflationary Age (08:07) A Multi-Trillion Migration Of Capital Is Underway, Argues McDonald (08:46) A New Commodity Bull Market Is Forming (15:58) Oil & Gas (18:09) Uranium (21:22) China (27:17) Is NVIDIA A Bubble? (33:22) VanEck Midroll (34:05) What This Means For Broad Index Investors (38:37) Financial Repression And Debt Jubilee (48:16) The Banking System (50:26) Recession Risk (01:01:55) How To Listen When Markets Speak __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ This is a recorded version of Jack’s macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on March 19, 2024. Macro analysts (and previous Forward Guidance guests) Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro (ex-Brevan Howard) share their outlook on the global economy, stocks, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s work https://fedguy.com/ Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Julian’s work https://t.co/qdroC4L86V Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Michael’s work https://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Jonny’s work https://super-macro.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Will Stocks Continue To Crush Bonds? (07:24) U.S. Economy Continues To Outperform Rest Of World (12:37) Financial Conditions Are Very Loose Despite Fed's Rapid Rise In Interest Rates (17:52) VanEck Ad (22:57) Michael Howell: Liquidity Is Continuing To Rise (30:17) Interest Rates And The Dollar (31:47) Views On Crypto (38:33) Concluding Prediction On Stocks Bonds And Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how China’s decision to peg its currency the Chinese Yuan in 1994 at an artificially low rate had enormous consequences on world’s monetary system, and why China may be soon be forced to make a monetary policy decision regarding its currency which may have similarly large consequences for the globe. Filmed on March 13, 2024. Russell is the author of two books, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms” and “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt.” __ Russell Napier’s newsletter, The Solid Ground: https://russellnapier.co.uk/ Russell’s first book, “Anatomy of a Bear Market: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms”: https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Lessons-Streets-bottoms/dp/0857195220/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Russell Napier’s second book, “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998 And The Birth Of The Age of Debt”: https://www.amazon.com/Asian-Financial-Crisis-1995-98-Birth/dp/0857199145/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=JKHqA&content-id=amzn1.sym.cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_p=cf86ec3a-68a6-43e9-8115-04171136930a&pf_rd_r=144-7804338-9176020&pd_rd_wg=QZHz8&pd_rd_r=bb8adee9-1ab7-4906-bfc2-cf8c13a39d25&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) How To Spot A Change In Monetary Policy (03:50) Birth Of The Age Of Debt (08:43) Chinese Surpluses Are Getting Smaller (14:10) China's Choice Between Deflation Or Devaluation (18:23) China's Growth Requires Massive Expansion In Narrow Money (27:10) VanEck Ad (27:53) Is China The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Ever? (30:35) PBOC Likely To Move To Flexible Exchange Rate In Order To Achieve Their Goals In Controlling Price And Quantity of Money (33:53) Is Foreign Lending Contingent Upon U.S. Dollar Reserves? (36:29) The Origin of The Chinese Stock Market In 1992 (39:11) Valuations of China's Stock Market (41:33) Buy Cheap Currencies, Not Cheap Companies (54:11) Napier's Views On Japanese Currency And Stock Market (58:51) The Lessons Of Quantitative Easing (QE) (01:01:27) The Future of Japanese Monetary Policy (01:03:10) The Interest Rate Shock Has Not Broken Something. Why? Will This Continue? (01:06:16) Are Higher Interest Rates Deflationary Or Inflationary? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 1923 and its connection to central bank insolvency. Sauer argues that severe impairment of central bank assets, and not the printing of vast amounts of central bank liabilities (money), was the primary cause of extreme inflation witnessed 101 years ago in Germany, Austria, Hungary and Poland. Sauer inverts the causal line of exchange rate depreciation, money supply increase, and inflation, and he also shares his concern about the current state of the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Filmed on March 5, 2024. __ Ingo Sauer’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@wissenhatkeineneigentumeri9889 Ingo Sauer’s 360 page paper, “The Lessons from 1923 for the Euro Area: Enlightening the Dark Side of (In-) Solvent Central Banks’ Balance Sheets”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4620462 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Overview Of Dr. Sauer's Theory On The Ultimate Cause of Hyperinflation: Central Bank Insolvency (07:05) Dr. Sauer's Concerns About The Euro (11:22) Setting The Stage For German Hyperinflation in 1923 (14:33) The German Mark During World War I (21:40) The Assets Of The Reichsbank Increasingly Became Dominated By German Government Obligations (Not Commercial Bills / Collateral Advances / Gold) (30:03) Central Bank Insolvency (Not Money Supply Increase) Caused Hyperinflation in 1923 (34:53) VanEck Ad (36:48) Failed Attempts To Stabilize German Mark And Inflation, 1919-1922 (41:44) Reichsbank's Holdings Of German Treasury Bills Highly Correlated To (In)Solvency Factor (45:01) Explaining Sauer's "Solvency Factor" (47:29) The Mark's Short-Lived Rally In 1920 (51:10) Marker (57:09) The Mechanics Of Central Bank Insolvency (59:40) Reichsmark Insolvency Led To Depreciation Of The Mark, Which Led To Hyperinflation (01:02:34) Money Supply Did Not Cause Hyperinflation, Argues Sauer (01:15:09) The Explosion In Reichsbank's Money Supply Was Mostly Paper Cash, Not Bank Reserves (01:23:03) Reparations' Impact On German Solvency (01:27:22) The Rentenmark And The Halting Of German HyperInflation (01:30:47) Central Bank Profits and Yield Curve Dynamics (01:34:58) European Debt Crisis (2009-2015) (01:36:45) Fed As Dealer Of Last Resort, European Central Bank (ECB) As Market Maker Of Last Resort (01:38:06) ECB Is Less A Central Bank And More Of A "Headquarters" For Domestic Euro Central Banks (such as Bank of France, for example) (01:40:23) Origin Of Fed, And Clearinghouse Loan Certificates As National Currency Before The Fed (01:44:18) Why Has ECB Balance Sheet Expansion Post 2008 Coincided With Disinflation (Or Deflation), And Not Hyperinflation? (01:47:44) Sauer's Fears About The ECB And The Euro (02:00:46) The Mechanics Of Monetary Financing (02:18:32) Interest Rate Risk Is Not A Systemic Concern __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though the rapid rise in interest rates has rendered many commercial real estate (CRE) deals uneconomic, the fundamentals in multi-family (i.e. apartments) remain strong, notes Halaris, in part due to high levels of immigration. Nonetheless, many new deals are being done at “negative leverage” - that is to say, the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate on the deal and the property’s cash flows are less than the interest expense. Halaris thinks the sell-off in office might be so bad that the asset class might have bottomed out. He remains very bullish on the single-family housing market. Filmed on March 12, 2024. __ Follow Nick Halaris on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris’ Newsletter Profit + https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/subscribe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Overview of Commercial Real Estate (04:24) Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) Have Been Stronger Than Expected (06:49) Immigration As A Tailwind For Housing & Multifamily Demand (08:43) Projects Are Being Cancelled Because Of High Rates (11:09) Interest Rate Shock Has Rendered Many Deals Uneconomic (18:58) Potential Value In Office Sector Of Commercial Real Estate (CRE)? (22:22) Nick's Long-Term Bull Thesis For Real Estate (26:25) VanEck Ad (27:11) CRE's Impact On The U.S. Banking System (29:31) Interestingly, Private Credit Funding Has Not Gotten More Expensive (31:28) Nick Is Flipping A House To Stay Busy (Do Not Do This At Home) (34:12) Housing Bull Market Is Fundamentally Different From 2003-2006... Not Speculative Bubble (I.E. Buying To Flip) (38:18) New York Community Bank (NYCB) (59:03) Final Thoughts On Valuation Difference Between Public and Private Real Estate Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S. equities. Sonders notes that a handful of large cap stocks have been leading the S&P 500 index higher, while the majority of stocks have been underperforming the index. While this so-called “breadth weakness” occurred at or near stock market peaks of 1999 and 2000, Sonders notes that breadth is strengthening. The phrase “Magnificent 7” is near-meaningless since, as of mid-March, the Mag7 includes both the best performing stock in the S&P 500 (Nvidia) and the worst performing stock (Tesla). Sonders argues that there is no such thing as a “typical” Fed interest rate cutting cycle, and that slower cutting cycles have tended to coincide alongside more bullish stock market action than fast cutting cycles. Filmed on March 4, 2024. __ Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-londonTimestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Rally In S&P 500 Has Been Ferocious, The Rally In Average Stocks Has Not (04:22) Large Cap Stocks Are Leading The S&P 500 Higher... Smaller Names Have Performed Less Well (09:31) Earnings Growth Is Very Strong (Unlike In 2000) (12:16) Companies' Earnings Guidance Is Less Specific Than Pre-2020 (16:47) Economic Outlook In U.S.: Rolling Re-acceleration (20:13) Labor Market Situation Has Been "Mirror Image" Of What Normally Happens (22:05) This Economic Cycle Has Been An "Orange" Compared To History's "Apples" (22:29) VanEck Ad (24:53) There Is No Such Thing As A "Typical" Fed Rate Cutting Cycle (30:57) Slower Cutting Cycles Have Been Somewhat More Bullish Than Rapid Cutting Cycles (36:27) Artificial Intelligence (AI) (43:17) Quality As A Factor (45:39) Momentum Has Been "Best Performing Factor Year-To-Date" (49:37) Size and Value As Factors __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's piece on Real Rates: https://fedguy.com/higher-real-rates-for-longer/ More about Wrightson ICAP: https://www.wrightson.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Reverse Repo Decline Driven By A) Decline In Fed's Balance Sheet And B) Increased Supply Of Treasury Bills And C) Private Repo Market Demand (05:45) The Liquidity Demands Of The Basis Trade (Long Cash Treasurys / Short Treasury Futures) Is Drawing Money Out Of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (12:40) VanEck Ad (13:22) Lou's Accurate Prediction On Why Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Would Not Be Renewed (It Wasn't) (17:10) Fed's Balance Sheet Policy: Quantitative Tightening (QT) (25:30) Summary From Jack (27:01) Money Market Data Could Indicate QT Will Continue For Longer (28:28) DAS Ad (33:14) Interest Rate Outlook On Fed Cutting Cycle (37:17) Inflation And Real Interest Rates (43:43) Potential Government Shutdown In U.S.?? (46:33) Tax Season Approaches! The Plumbing Of Refunds (49:31) Joseph's Closing Thoughts On U.S. Fiscal Situation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Luigi Zingales on Twitter https://twitter.com/zingales?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow Capitalisn't https://www.capitalisnt.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Is It Time To Investigate The Fed? (01:45) There Needs To Be A Sacrificial Lamb (07:21) Accountability In The Private Sector (11:20) Activist Investors Can Help If Company's Issues Are Financial In Nature (15:49) Potential Solutions: Whistleblowers And Abolition Of NDAs (17:39) VanEck Ad (18:36) Moving Beyond Sarbanes-Oxley (26:26) ESG Space Has Attracted A Lot Of "Charlatans" Precisely Because The Issue Is So Important (33:37) The Future of Financial Technology (FinTech) (36:42) A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Would Be "Much More Efficient" (43:22) With CBDC, All Short-Term Demand Deposits Would Be With Fed, and Commercial Banks Would Fund Themselves With Term Deposits (i.e. CDs) (46:47) On Economics As A Field (48:52) Has U.S. Entered A New Era Of Secularly Higher Growth? (50:07) Are Interest Rates Too Restrictive? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could either be a corrective move in the middle of a bull market or the beginning of a true bear market. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton More About Milton Berg: https://www.miltonberg.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Milton's Buy Signals Have Continued To Appear In The Stock Market (06:11) This Bull Market Is Unique In Its Strength, And It Its Weakness (10:53) Indicators That Suggest A Stock Market Top In February 2024 (15:20) Why Milton Is Leaning Bearish (24:05) Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts And Earnings Cycle (Milton Disagrees That These Are Bullish Factors) (30:55) There's Lots Of Momentum In This Market - But It's Not Bullish Momentum (35:28) Banking Index Is Behaving Strangely (40:37) Evidence This Could Be A Blow-Off Top (49:33) VanEck Ad (50:16) This Is Not A Healthy Market (52:34) The Permabears Could Finally Be Right (53:13) Speculation In Blue Chip Companies Is Extreme (Although Speculation In Unprofitable Companies Is Not) (01:00:09) Mind The GAP! (01:05:29) Portrait Of A Sick Market (01:07:22) New Highs In Europe And Japan - Milton Isn't Impressed! (01:10:48) China (01:12:37) Cycle Dates (01:16:54) Climax Top In SuperMicro (SMCI) - Milton Was Long But Has Flipped Short (01:21:31) If There's A New Bear Market In 2024, It Will Probably Cause A Recession (Unlike In 2022) (01:26:35) Milton's Long-Only Portfolio (01:28:26) Milton's Short List Of Overextended Stocks (Including Nvidia) (01:33:12) Would A Forthcoming Sell-off Be A Corrective Move During a Bull Market Or The Beginning Of A New Bear Market? (01:35:29) Alibaba, Paypal, and Berkshire Hathaway (01:36:43) A Review Of The Buy And Sell Signals __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.  VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remi’s Substack, “The Mad King”: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Stock Market Rally Has "Room To Go" But Tetot Is "Cautious" Around Nosebleed Valuations (06:11) Nvidia's Data Center Business Is Cyclical, Notes Tetot (07:53) AI Is A Bit Overhyped, Argues Tetot (18:47) The Business Cycle Is Still Digesting The Excess (21:29) VanEck Ad (22:14) The Fed's Balance Sheet (24:37) When Will The Fed Start To Cut Rates? (33:42) Crypto (38:57) Key Learnings From Last Crypto Cycle (47:35) Uranium (54:56) Remi's Long Idea On Homebuilders __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023 (03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession (05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points (10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late" (12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market (15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn" (16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed (20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We? (23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed (25:59) VanEck Ad (26:46) Labor Market (29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret (36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer (40:27) The Housing Market (41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again (49:35) Neutral Policy Rate (55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Stocks Vs. Bonds (05:19) Upside Downside Capture On Bonds (08:24) Overweight Stocks Over Bonds (21:44) VanEck Ad (22:29) Stock Market Valuations (30:51) Return Attribution In Equity Portfolio (37:26) Breadth In Stock Market (45:00) Notion of "Equity Duration" Is Mostly Just A Narrative (49:11) Comparisons To Dot Com Bubble (53:40) Bond Market Outlook on Credit & Duration Risk (55:55) The Fed And The Wealth Effect As The "Third Leg Of The Monetary Policy Stool" (57:01) Are Financial Conditions Tight Or Loose? (01:01:52) Investing With An Income Focus __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Shrub's Background In Shorting Credit During Great Financial Crisis (05:28) Short Credit Spreads Trade (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (12:14) The Challenges of Shorting An Index (15:26) Have We Seen "Max Stupid" Yet? (23:58) VanEck Ad (21:08) Shrub's Short-Term Call That Stocks Will Correct Mildly (25:33) Why Shrub Thinks Stocks End Up On the Year (28:51) This Is Not 2000, This Is Not 2021, Argues Shrub (34:25) Shrub's Investing Approach: Value, Thematic, Coal, and Digimarc (40:40) Tesla and Google (51:02) Treasury Secretary Yellen Tamagotchi (52:12) Two Types of Inflation: Wealthflation and Plebflation (55:44) How Much Does Market Plumbing Matter? (01:01:29) Is U.S. Treasury Sterilizing QT? (01:07:05) Economic Outlook in U.S. And Europe (01:09:42) How Systemic Are Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Issues? (01:14:48) Banking & CLO Systems (01:17:57) Views on Fed's Interest Rate Policy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background in Relative Value Credit (02:25) Potential Trouble At Deutsche Pfandbrief Bank (15:03) VanEck Ad (15:45) Liability Structure of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (18:42) The Pfandbrief Market (Different Than Bank Known As "Deutsche Pfandbrief" AKA "PBB") (21:56) Negative Marginal Net Interest Margin Is A Big Problem (23:54) Why Josef Does Not Have A Trade On PBB - Insufficient Liquidity In Options Market (25:23) Bail-in-ability of AT1 Debt (29:59) How This Might Play Out (32:47) Comparison To Greek And Spanish Banks (35:06) Silver Lining: Long-Term Nature of Many of PBB's Liabilities (40:21) Deposit Insurance In Germany & Europe (43:05) How PBB Might (Possibly) Overcome The Challenges It Faces? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Patrick Saner on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patrick_saner Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) U.S. Economy Appears Resilient (03:16) Financial Conditions And Neutral Rate (08:)54 Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (QE & QT) (13:32) The Reaction Function Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Has Changed (17:44) VanEck Ad (18:28) Interpreting Ongoing Yield Curve Inversion (20:24) Patrick's Work At Swiss Re (23:24) Inflation Volatility (33:47) Currencies (35:46) European Economy (38:32) Two Consecutive Quarters Of No Growth Does Not Necessarily Indicate A Recession (40:55) Most Common Error In Macro: Mistaking Correlation For Causation (43:16) Soft Landing Is Patrick's Base Case (45:49) Patrick's Prior Work At Swiss National Bank __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Paul Sankey research: https://sankeyresearch.com/ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Oil Market At "Equilibrium" Right Now (08:51) “If It Wasn't For Saudi Production Cuts, Oil Would Be Below 60 Dollars, I'm Sure Of It” (13:03) U.S. Oil Production Has Exploded (18:25) VanEck ad (19:07) The Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Cycle Has Begun In Oil (Diamondback-Endeavor Deal) (25:40) Importance Of Inventory Quality (And Quantity) (29:00) Management Issues (32:38) Buybacks and Dividends (35:50) Oil Companies With Strongest (And Weakest) Inventories (38:07) Merger Arb In Deals That Haven't Closed (44:43) How AI Will Impact Power Demand (50:55) About Sankey Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) The Small Cap Value Universe (06:58) Why Did The Value Factor Used To Work, And Why Isn't It Working Now? (11:27) How To Find Great Small Cap Value Stocks (14:45) Finding Asymmetric Opportunities (16:18) VanEck Ad (17:51) Ferroglobe PLC (20:50) ACV Auctions (24:52) I Despise Price / Sales Ratio (27:38) What Makes Some Investments Work, And Others Not Work? (31:17) Look At Managements' Incentives (40:54) Banking Stocks (43:06) Last Time Small Cap Value Stocks Were "All The Rage": Early 2000s (45:17) Has The Rise Of Passive Flows Distorted The Small Cap World? (51:13) Markets Are "Broadly Efficient": Some Value Stocks Are Cheap For A Reason (53:06) How to Avoid "Value Traps" (58:42) How To Generate Short Ideas (01:07:00) The Role of Macro (01:08:37) U.S. Economy Is "Pretty Strong," European Economy Is "In Shambles" (01:10:51) Calumet Specialty Products (01:13:33) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) What Is Private Credit? (07:51) Private Credit Is Doing The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Finance (16:04) How Will Private Credit Perform If Defaults Pick-Up? (Very Little Data In Previous Cycles Because The Asset Class Has Grown So Much) (19:24) Private Credit Is Very Illiquid (20:54) Debt Covenants In Private Credit Are, Admittedly, Usually Very Strong (26:31) VanEck Ad (27:14) Interplay Between Private Credit and Rest of Fixed Income Universe (32:35) Private Equity Is Using Private Credit To Pay Itself Via Dividend Recaps (35:13) Private Credit Is Refinancing Some Of The Riskiest Deals In Leveraged Loan Market, Which Perhaps May Be Bullish For Leveraged Loan (& High-Yield Bond) Market (38:00) Default Outlook In High-Yield Bond And Leveraged Loan Market (43:09) Moderately Bullish View On Duration (I.e. Rates) (58:43) Maturity Wall High-Yield Bond Is Very, Very Termed Out (01:02:56) Opportunities In Securitized Products Market Appear Interesting (01:04:57) Single Borrower Commercial Real Estate Loan Market Offers Interesting Opportunities To Fundamental Credit Investors (01:07:48) Most Common Investing Mistake In Credit: Herd Mentality __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk (04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation (16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates? (21:25) VanEck Ad (22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest? (29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose? (44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year" (47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood (01:01:20) China (01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders (01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Martin Pelletier on Twitter https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s latest on Cash-Futures Basis Trade: https://fedguy.com/levering-up/ Joseph’s latest on CBO: https://fedguy.com/sea-change/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:25) VanEck Ad (11:10) New York Community Bank $NYCB (15:34) The Canadian Banking System (22:05) Is Tech Forming A Stock Market Bubble? (33:15) Cash-Futures Basis Trade In Treasury Market (39:41) The Rise of Structured Products In Canada (56:40) Energy Market (01:03:00) Joseph's Views On Powell's 60 Minutes Interview (01:07:40) Bank of Canada Could Cut Interest Rates By More Than The Fed Does In 2024 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps; (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The Chinese Financial System Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme (05:17) The Property Bubble In China Is Popping (It's Still In Early Stages) (11:21) How The Chinese Banking System Works: Window Guidance > Forward Guidance (27:02) VanEck Ad (37:52) Views On The Chinese Stock Market (38:12) The Chinese Yuan (RMB) Must Be Devalued In Order To Stimulate The Chinese Economy (47:11) U.S. China Trade Policy, Under President Biden and Under President Trump (52:03) Much Of China's Bank Equity Is "Going To Be Wiped Out" (57:32) Why Would Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Not Stimulate Its Economy And Avoid Major Slowdown? (01:04:25) McCarthy's Long-Term Thesis On China: "They Will Go The Japan Path" (01:11:37) China's FX Reserves (01:14:06) Why Can't China Reinflate The Property Bubble? (01:17:31) Closing Thoughts On China (01:19:46) Macro Implications Of China's Slowdown On Global Economy __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Citrini Lived Up To Jack's Nickname as "Hottest AI Stockpicker" (Here's The Proof) (17:21) VanEck Ad (18:04) Citrini's View on The Magnificent Seven (28:49) Fiscal Spending Not Set To Decline, Regardless Of Who Wins U.S. Presidential Election (30:49) Citrini's Basket Of Fiscal Beneficiaries (33:27) How Citrini Conducts His Research (45:07) Citrini's Risk Management (54:25) A Theme That Hasn't Worked: China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the market has grinded higher, which has created some interesting opportunities to hedge risk. Curnutt notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains positive, which is worrisome for diversified investors. Curnutt is also the host of Alpha Exchange podcast. Filmed on January 25, 2024. __ Follow Dean Curnutt on Twitter https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Preparing For Risk Off Events (16:13) VanEck Ad (20:09) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (25:49) Volatility (33:16) How Low Can The VIX Go? (42:27) Volatility Risk Premium (46:53) Credit Volatility (54:02) U.S Elections & Volatility Risk (01:03:43) What Is The Vol Structure Pricing In? (01:13:09) When To Buy Cheap Volatility? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference" (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates (20:52) Vaneck Ad (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement) (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024 (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB) (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!! __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow John Comiskey on Twitter https://twitter.com/Johncomiskey77 John Comiskey’s Substack: https://johncomiskey.substack.com/ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022) (06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023 (09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills (15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023 (22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects) (27:20) VanEck Ad (36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury (43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large? (53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes (59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond (01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect (01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable? (01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are rising but from ultra-low levels. He does worry that commercial real estate (CRE) loans will continue to suffer impairment as losses are realized in 2024. Whalen notes that while the decline in long-term bond yields since early November 2023 has improved banks’ unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not help banks that much as their deposit costs will be slow to fall. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Troubles In Commercial Real Estate (07:28) This Will Be A Slow-Motion Train Wreck (11:01) Consumer Credit Is Normalizing (Delinquencies Are Rising From Very Low Levels) (16:13) VanEck Ad (16:57) Updated Views On Banks' Interest Rate Exposure (24:52) The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates 6 Times This Year, Argues Whalen (30:13) Fed Will Stop Quantitative Tightening Sooner Than Market Expects (32:32) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (33:49) Discount Window, Standing Repo Facility, and Reverse Repo Facility (39:00) Medium Term, Short-Term Rates Will Fall and Yield Curve Will Normalize (41:24) Basel III Endgame (45:32) Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) and Gain On Sale (51:42) Net Income Will Likely Fall At Banks - "Don't Look For Roses And Sunshine" (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, joins Jack fresh off his trip to Cuba, to share insights about the Cuban financial system. Kotok argues that the Federal Reserve has demonstrated its commitment to financial stability, which is very bullish for U.S. financial assets. With that being said, Kotok has his concerns. Filmed on January 23, 2024. Kotok is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) and host of the eponymous “Camp Kotok.” __ Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) The Bond Market Rollercoaster (04:54) The Municipal Bond Market (12:18) The Importance Of Financial Stability (17:14) The Fed Prevented A Banking Run In March 2023 (22:36) Incentive for "Fed To Move Slowly" (24:29) VanEck Ad (25:09) Cuba (29:43) U.S. Dollar Is The Most Popular Currency In Cuba (35:42) Inflation and Credit In Cuba (44:47) Cuba's International Relations (48:25) David Kotok's View On The U.S. Stock Market (51:53) U.S. Economic Outlook (59:41) The Fed's Balance Sheet Policy In 2024 (01:03:00) Inflation In LCLoR (Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves) (01:06:00) Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Is Not Very Relevant In The Long-Term __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it has indicated, a “soft landing” is very achievable. However, Dutta notes that if the Fed does not cut and interest rates remain restrictive, his outlook may change throughout the year. Filmed on January 19, 2022. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/RenMacLLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:25) Why The Much-Anticipated Recession of 2023 Never Arrived (03:53) How "Leading Indicators" Were Giving False Recession Signals (06:32) Why The Leading Indicators Were Wrong (11:18) You Typically Don't See A Recession When Real Incomes Are Rising (13:19) Setting The Record Straight On "Excess Savings" Narrative (16:30) VanEck Ad (20:13) The Fed and Interest Rates (22:55) Long Lags = Nonsense? (26:21) Neil Dutta's Economic Outlook: Real Incomes Will Continue To Grow Into Summer 2024 (27:00) Inflation Is Falling By A Lot More Than People Think (28:33) The Bond Market Has Been Dead Wrong This Cycle (31:08) Credit Conditions And The Banking System (34:11) Delinquencies (35:49) The Labor Market Is Strong But Cooling (40:54) If Fed Doesn't Cut, That Would Be A Tightening Of Financial Conditions That Could Slow Economy (42:12) Views On Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors (45:00) China (46:29) Election Risk For The Bond Market __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey’s specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey’s website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey’s Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.

Michaell Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on his outlook on global liquidity. Howell notes that further evidence supports his long-held view that liquidity bottomed in October 2022, and he explains why he expects liquidity to strengthen further into 2024, making for a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Filmed on January 11, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow CrossBorder Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Howell: Liquidity Conditions Continue To Strengthen From Their Lows In The Early Fall of 2022 (12:26) Implications For Stocks, Gold, and Crypto (22:50) Industry Sectors At This Stage In The Liquidity Cycle (24:37) The Bond Market Is Being Distorted By The Federal Reserve (30:07) Term Premia And Convexity In Fixed-Income (37:07) Bank Term Funding Program and Draining of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility (40:11) Drivers Of Fed Liquidity In 2024 and Beyond (45:50) The Economic Cycle Is Different Than The Liquidity Cycle (50:51) Is Demand For Refinancing (and Liquidity) Lower Because U.S. Corporates & Households Have Such Long-Duration Liabilities? (54:35) China and The People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:06:56) Howell's View On Interest Rates (01:09:08) Non-Central Bank Sources of Liquidity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, joins Forward Guidance to discuss revelations from his new book, “Rigged: The Incredible True Story Of The Whistleblowers Jailed After Exposing The Rotten Heart Of The Financial System.” Verity argues that the traders who were convicted of rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) are mere scapegoats, and that the real “rigging” was on a scale much larger and was encouraged by central bankers and bank CEOs. This interview features four recordings with former Barclays employee Peter Johnson, which show Johnson raising the alarm bell that nearly every bank was vastly underreporting their true cost of borrowing in the London Eurodollar market. Despite this, Johnson was later accused and convicted of conspiracy to defraud. These recordings are only a tiny fraction of the enormous amount of evidence Verity has collected, which can be found in his book as well as online in several links which will be shared below. Filmed on January 5, 2024. __ Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Andy Verity on Twitter https://twitter.com/andyverity Andy Verity’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Incredible-Whistleblowers-Exposing-Financial/dp/0750998857 Rigged, You Be The Judge: https://andyverity.substack.com/p/rigged-you-be-the-judge-7ad?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy's NEW Post (January 16, 2024), What the FBI + Gary Gensler's CFTC knew about interest rate manipulation ordered from the top - but didn't tell Congress or the public": https://andyverity.substack.com/p/what-the-fbi-gary-genslers-cftc-knew?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Andy Verity’s recordings on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/andy-verity-74636470 The Lowball Tapes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0014wtn BBC News Panorama Program: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpUX1WJwivQ&t=96s Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:37) What is LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)? (10:09) The Price Of No Apples (12:07) The Evidence (Taped Phone Calls) (23:22) Traders' Requests Were Punished Whereas "Lowballing" Was Not (37:08) Higher-ups' Involvement: Bank of England, BBA, Federal Reserve, U.K. Government (41:28) Gary Gensler's Role In Alleged Cover-Up (45:30) Peter Johnson, One Of The Very Few Who Cared That LIBOR Was Fraudulent, Was Sent To Jail (52:11) Lowballing Never Came To Court (55:03) The Fall of LIBOR, The Rise of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) (01:01:19) The LIBOR Trials In The Wake Of The Great Financial Crisis (01:17:59) Where The LIBOR Case Stands In 2024 (01:26:15) The Future of Eurodollars And London In A LIBOR-Less World (01:29:25) Concluding Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom (08:54) Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy? (10:29) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (15:11) Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan (20:53) Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market (24:48) Bond Market and Fed Policy (33:24) Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts (34:10) Floor vs. Corridor System (42:08) Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook (51:14) Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market (57:14) Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens (01:07:36) Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF) (01:11:04) Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting and publisher of The pH Report returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on the state of the chemicals and automotive industry. Hodges sees significant overcapacity in chemicals and persistently low price of ethene, propylene, and other chemicals suggests that demand is weakening. Jack asks about whether the fall in inflation in the U.S. economy, which occurred while the labor market and spending stayed strong, indicates that a “soft landing” is a likely outcome in the U.S. or might have even already occurred. Filmed on January 5, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account __ Follow Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 New Normal Consulting https://t.co/d5mkV0QuBb pH Report https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (26:09) The Bank of Japan Faces A Dilemma (29:09) Why China's Economy Could Remain Weak For Longer Than Many Expect (43:25) The Chemicals Market Remains Weak (55:42) Will The U.S. Continue To Be Immune To Global Slowdown? (01:09:13) Euphoria In The Stock Market (01:10:43) Hodges' Concerns About The Bond Market (01:17:59) Why Can't The Printing Continue? (01:27:52) The Federal Reserve In 2024 (01:34:12) Why Paul Is The Most Risk Averse He's Ever Been (01:40:12) Geopolitics (01:42:05) Green Energy and Electric Vehicles __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. You can go to Public.com, purchase Treasury bills in seconds, and you may be able to earn some of the highest yields we’ve seen since the year 2000. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. -- On today's episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG for a discussion on what to expect from the Fed, economy & markets in 2024. Will the Fed be able to avoid a recession as markets price in a soft landing? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- This podcast is sponsored by Public. Rate discussed is gross of fees. All investing involves risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. Treasuries on Public are available to US members only. Brokerage Accounts for treasury securities are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”) member FINRA and SIPC. Securities investments: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Banking services and the Bank Account are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. Full disclosures can be found at https://public.com/forwardguidance. -- Follow Danielle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow George on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What To Expect In 2024 (07:52) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (14:35) What Caused The Powell Pivot? (28:38) Will The Fiscal Support End In 2024? (42:55) Recession vs The Soft Landing (50:23) Heading For A Credit Event (54:39) Positioning Into 2024 (57:32) Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode, Former Fed trader, CIO at Monetary Macro & Author Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss his outlook for 2024. Joseph walks through his stock market "crack up boom" thesis, the rise of fiscal dominance & the path ahead for bonds as the U.S runs record high deficits. We then deep dive into the Fed's QT program, the reverse repo outlook as well as broader financial plumbing and how it may impact markets in the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Disinflation Is Transitory (07:48) Record Deficits Will Fuel A Stock Market Rally In 2024 (11:34) The Fed Will Cut Rates Three Times In 2024 (16:33) Why Isn't The Fed Pushing Back Against Market Pricing? (19:22) Fading The Recessionista's (23:25) The U.S Dollar (26:52) Quantitative Tightening (35:45) The Reverse Repo (46:32) Mortgages Role In The Fed's QT (54:39) Housing (01:01:10) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies as SCT Capital Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his many findings from his recent research on commodity investing. Krishnan and Farley also discuss the weather, the continuing dispersion between interest rate volatility and equity market volatility, and if the bond market really is smarter than the stock market. Filmed on December 19, 2024. Today’s interview is sponsored by Public. Add fixed income to your portfolio with corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Go to https://public.com/forwardguidance to get started. __ Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Hari's Journey Into Commodities (10:10) Finding Upside Convexity In Commodity Options (17:35) Corn (21:41) Copper and Metals (22:53) Natural Gas Is Similar To The VIX (most Contango) (27:27) Seasonality (30:49) Commodity Stocks (34:08) Structural Bull Case For Commodities (38:57) What's Harder - Predicting Weather or Predicting The Stock Market? (41:22) Bread and Butter Volatility Trading (44:32) Views On VIX & Implied Volatility (50:17) Examples of Other "Disaster Trades" In The Volatility World (51:31) Rate Volatility Is Much Higher Than Equity Volatility - Why? (55:12) Is The Stock Market Smarter Than The Bond Market? (01:02:53) Reflexivity, Explained __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Andrei Stetsenko, partner at Farley Capital, joins Forward Guidance to share insights from his experience investing in India. Stetsenko, who works with Jack’s father, argues that India’s economy is being turbocharged by exceptionally favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and growing infrastructure. He explains why he believes India’s stock market contains high-growth, high-quality companies that may trade at much cheaper valuations than a similarly positioned company in the U.S. He argues why he thinks short-term thinking is the most common mistake investors make, and shares his thoughts on several industries such as payments, banking, and airlines. Filmed on December 21, 2023. Andrei Stetsenko’s blog, Dispatches From India: https://www.dispatchesfromindia.com/ Andrei Stetsenko on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/astetsen __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Farley Capital Got Started Investing In India (08:50) The Indian Stock Market Vs. American Stock Market (15:15) India's Banking System (18:05) Company Management In India (20:00) Adani Allegations (Hindenburg Research) (24:11) Red Flags To Avoid (26:41) Valuations In The Indian Stock Market (30:12) You Won't Get Far In The Indian Market Without Profit (35:03) Margin Of Safety (39:01) Macro And Discount Rate (41:06) The Payments Industry (46:18) The Credit Card and Buy Now Pay Later Industries (50:13) The U.S. Banking Industry (51:26) Importance of Tuning the Noise Out (55:14) Most Common Mistake In Investing (01:01:47) China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Carson Block, activist short seller and founder of Muddy Waters Research and Muddy Waters Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to share his short thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), a large publicly traded vehicle that owns loans backed by commercial real estate (CRE) buildings. Block argues that a “perfect macro storm” of lower net operating income (NOI), higher interest rates, and impaired CRE values, could force BXMT to cut their dividend. Using individual loan level data from BXMT’s collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), Block found that, absent rate swaps, 73% of CLO borrowers aren’t covering interest expense, and 27% were unable to pay just the risk free rate (SOFR). Block estimates that 16 Billion (notional value) of rate swaps will expire in 2024, which will put severe stress on the borrowers as well as BXMT itself, potentially creating a liquidity crisis. Block and Farley discuss Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s “fact sheet,” which BXMT may have released in response to Muddy Waters report, originally released on December 6. This interview was filmed on December 20, 2023. NOTE: as disclosed during this interview, Block and his firm are short BXMT against a comparable basket of longs. In no way is this interview an inducement to short BXMT. Lastly, throughout the interview the term “Blackstone” is sometimes used in lieu of “Blackstone Mortgage Trust”; it is this company, and NOT Blackstone (BX) itself, that is being referenced, as the bear case discussed in this interview is for BXMT, not BX. Muddy Waters Research short report on Blackstone Mortgage Trust ($BXMT), December 6, 2023: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bxmt/mw-is-short-bxmt/ Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s Fact Sheet: https://s26.q4cdn.com/698820489/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/BXMT-Fact-Sheet.pdf Blackstone Mortgage Trust investor relations: https://ir.blackstonemortgagetrust.com/shareholders/default.aspx _ Other Muddy Waters Research: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/ Zer0es TV: https://www.zer0es.tv/ Carson’s previous appearance on Forward Guidance (March 2022): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SScVuA4nf44&t=2213s _ Follow Muddy Waters Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/muddywatersre Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Short Thesis on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) (05:00) Loan Level Data Reveal Interest Expense (Absent Swaps) Often Exceeds Net Operating Income (12:14) Refinancing Is A Lot Harder When Collateral Values Have Fallen (22:07) In-Depth Analysis Of Interest Rate Swaps (30:39) How Does This Play Out (37:07) Risk To The Bear Case: That The Mothership (Blackstone) Bails Out BXMT (41:59) Managing The Short BXMT Position (45:39) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy marketsTimestamps:

Jared Dillian, founder of The Daily Dirtnap and author of “No Worries: How To Live A Stress-Free Financial Life,” returns to Forward Guidance to argue that too many are too excited about the stock market and private equity and that, accordingly, he is short both. Dillian expects the much-anticipated recession that never appeared in 2023 to finally arrive, and he remains bullish the front end of the yield curve. Filmed on December 20, 2023. Dillian’s latest book: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/books/no-worries __ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jared's Bearish View On Stocks (03:23) Jared's Short On Blackstone (06:55) Higher For Longer Was Just A Narrative All Along (09:07) I Think We'll Get A Recession (12:06) View On Long-Term Government Bonds (15:29) International and Value Stocks (18:06) Very Bearish View On Chinese Stocks (22:05) Bull Case In Argentina (23:09) Value Stocks Vs. Growth Stocks (25:09) Oil (26:51) Stock Market Sentiment (28:20) Indexing and The Awesome Portfolio (36:04) The Risk Of Focusing Too Much On Small Financial Decisions (44:51) Closing Thoughts On Crypto and Gold __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Carolyn Sissoko, senior lecturer at University of the West of England, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and author at FedGuy.com, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s public acknowledgement that it may cut interest rates in 2024, the collateral supply effect, and the merging of of credit allocation facilities and money markets. Filmed on December 19, 2023.  Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr __ Follow Carolyn Sissoko on Twitter https://twitter.com/csissoko Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph’s latest, “Independent Tracks”: https://fedguy.com/independent-tracks/ Professor Sissoko’s publications: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Joseph's Take On The Fed's December FOMC Meeting (09:25) Does Zero Interest Rate Policy Cause Malinvestment And Misallocation of Credit? (15:02) The Rise of "Too Big To Fail" (24:32) Line Separating Bank Lending And Money Markets Has Been "Almost Completely Obliterated" (38:25) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and Stablecoins (40:48) Joseph On Why Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) Could Continue Even As It Cuts Rates (45:20) Joseph's Views On Bonds (01:02:03) The Collateral Effect (01:17:04) CLOs and Private Equity __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Daniel Neilson, professor of economics at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Soon Parted,” returns to Forward Guidance to share findings from his seminal paper, “On par: A Money View of stablecoins.” Co-authored with Iñaki Aldasoro and Perry Mehrling as a working paper for the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), this paper compares on-chain currency (stablecoins) to Eurodollars to explore how they deal with issues of liquidity and par settlement. Filmed on December 8, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr _ BIS Paper, “On par: A Money View of stablecoins”: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1146.pdf Dan Neilson’s newsletter, Soon Parted: https://www.soonparted.co/ Dan Neilson’s book, “Minsky”: https://www.amazon.com/Minsky-Daniel-H-Neilson/dp/1509528504 Follow Dan Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Why Stablecoins? (04:46) The Issue Of Par (09:43) The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008 (12:12) Did The Fed's Rate Surge Halt The Stablecoin Boom? (22:06) Stablecoins, The New Eurodollars (24:20) The Need For Smooth Forward Markets (27:40) There's No Central Bank In Crypto (34:22) Silicon Valley Bank and Circle (49:43) Tether (01:02:20) The Role Of Zero Interest Rates (01:05:01) The Role Of Stablecoins: "Lots of Fireworks" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Thomas Majewski, founder of Eagle Point Credit, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights from the somewhat opaque world of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). Majewski explains why he perceives that CLO equity enjoys a series of structural advantages, and he also shares his thoughts on the worlds of private credit and bank capital relief transactions. Filmed on December 11, 2023. Please note that any past performance discussed in this presentation is not indicative of, or a guarantee of, future performance. To reference performance and the discussion about Eagle Point Credit Company, please visit the website: https://www.eaglepointcreditcompany.com/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) What Are CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations)? (19:00) A Look Back At CDOs And 2008 (31:42) Impact Of Rising Rates On Companies' Ability To Service Debt Loads (40:14) How Would "The CLO World" Handle A Potential Recession? (43:06) Banks Are Selling Credit Risk (i.e. Buying Insurance) Via "Regulatory Capital Relief" Credit Linked Notes (Are They Similar To Credit Default Swaps?) (54:15) Private Credit - Golden Age Or Biggest Bubble In The World? (01:00:13) Liability Structure of BDCs (Business Development Corporation) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on interest rates, credit spreads, the economy, and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on December 5, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Kathy Jones on Twitter https://twitter.com/KathyJones Follow Schwab Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/SchwabResearch Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (07:45) Inverted Yield Curve Is Here To Stay (10:01) Term Premia Will Decline (14:12) Bond Market Does Not Always Track Nominal Growth (17:21) Can't Rule Out That This Is A Counter-Trend Rally (20:56) How Does Bond Supply Affect Price? (29:02) The Days Of Quantitative Tightening (QT) May Be Numbered (31:33) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (34:09) Investment Grade (IG) Corporate Bonds (37:22) We Are Not Enthusiastic About CLOs and Private Credit (46:40) Sentiment and Positioning In Fixed Income (48:50) Views on Europe and Japan (53:32) Bull Case For The Dollar __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Michael Ericson President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank & Dan Siciliano Chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB join the show for a discussion on the current health of the banking system. At the end of the year in 2023, 9 months after the March banking panic, Dan & Michael make a case that the U.S banking system if more healthy & stale than earlier this year. We deep dive into the collapse of SVB, how the FHLB operates & what to expect looking ahead to 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) What Is The FHLB? (04:12) Strength Of The Banking System (17:27) Does The FHLB Have Credit Risk? (28:04) The Collapse Of SVB (37:24) Role Of The FHLB vs The Fed (47:05) Bank Credit Worthiness (01:03:40) Lessons Learned From The March Bank Panic (01:08:48) Silvergate Bank (01:16:02) Silicon Valley Bank (01:19:50) Operational Expenses Of The FHLB -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023. More info about Zulauf Consulting can be found here: www.felixzulauf.com Felix Zulauf is the Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. Felix has over 40 years of experience in financial markets and asset management and has served as a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for 30 years. He started as a trader with Swiss Bank Corporation in the early 1970’s and received training in research and portfolio management thereafter with several investment banks in New York, Zurich, and Paris. Mr. Zulauf joined UBS in 1977 as a Portfolio Manager of global mutual funds and became Global Strategist of UBS in 1982 and the head of the institutional portfolio management group in 1986. Felix served as a member of the Executive Board of Clariden Bank from 1988-1990 and founded Zulauf Asset Management AG in 1990, a Swiss-based asset management company. Mr. Zulauf sold the majority of the firm and spun off a Family Office in 2009. LinkedIn @zulauf-consulting YouTube Channel @zulaufconsulting __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Counter-Trend Rally In Bonds May Continue, But The Bond Bear Market Likely Isn't Over (12:47) Magnificent 7 Stocks Are "Excessively Overpriced (29:31) Transition To Bear Market (35:25) Has U.S Economy Dodged A Recession? (37:23) Some Economic Statistics Could Not Be Accurate To Reality (40:27) Will Inflation Reaccelerate (42:01) Geopolitical Risk Is Not Being Taken Seriously By The Market (46:07) U.S.-China Relations (50:34) Waiting On China's Economic Recovery (53:53) Will Bull Market In Japanese Stocks Continue? (56:34) Tactical Bullish View On U.S. Dollar Relative To Some Other Currencies

Dr. Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, joins Forward Guidance alongside Joseph Wang, CIO of Monetary Macro and writer at FedGuy.com, to discuss his paper at the Federal Reserve’s 2023 Jackson Hole symposium, “Living with High Public Debt.” Professor Eichengreen also shares his findings on the U.S. dollar’s role as a global reserve currency (“dollar dominance”), financial repression, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and he also shares his views on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Filmed on November 28, 2023. Dr. Eichengreen’s 2023 Jackson Hole paper, “Living With High Public Debt”: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9749/Living_With_High_Public_SA_Sep_2_2023.pdf Complete agenda for 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/jackson-hole-economic-policy-symposium-structural-shifts-in-the-global-economy/ More information on Dr. Eichengreen’s work: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/ __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Follow Dr. Barry Eichengreen on Twitter https://twitter.com/B_Eichengreen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) High Levels of Debt Relative to GDP Are Problematic (06:07) Ways By Which Debt-to-GDP Ratios Can Be Lowered (14:08) Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Lead To A Productivity Miracle? (19:58) How Bad Does It Have To Get Before A Global Reserve Currency Gets Dethroned? (26:31) Central Banks Are Buying More Gold (30:31) What Could Erode Dollar's Dominant Position In The World (40:39) Dr. Eichengreen's Views On Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (46:05) Is Central Bank Independence Something That's Here To Stay? (49:16) Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) (59:49) Dr. Eichengreen's Future Work On China's Economic Slowdown __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Anthony Dilweg, veteran real estate investor and Founder & CEO and of Dilweg, joins Forward Guidance to share shocking information from the world of commercial real estate (CRE) in general and office in particular. Dilweg, whose firm owns over 5.5 million square feet of real estate, mostly located in the Southeast United States, argues the challenges CRE will contend with may be greater than those faced during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Dilweg’s base case is that office as an asset class is structurally broken as the trends of remote and hybrid work are here to stay. He expects over a billion square footage of U.S. office space will be rendered obsolete in the coming years. With all these challenges notwithstanding, Dilweg is optimistic that there will be great investment opportunities for well capitalized players who can take advantage of market distress. Filmed on November 29, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ About Dilweg: https://www.dilweg.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Dilweg's Background in Football and Real Estate (04:10) Dilweg's Start In Real Estate: "Ready, Fire, Aim" (09:00) Office Is The Most Capital-Intensive Sector Of Real Estate (12:15) Interest Rate Surge Has Been A "Jolt To The System" (20:30) Office Is Structurally Broken Right Now (34:10) It's A Lot Worse Than The Headlines (43:10) Lease Term: Comparison To "Duration" In Bond World (44:10) Interest Rate Hedging In The Real Estate Business (Public REITs and Private Investors) (45:00) Are Office Rents Going Down? (50:35) Dilweg's Forward Outlook On Returns (53:10) A Lot Of Properties Will Go Back To Banks (01:09:00) Dilweg's Outlook on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Other Than Offices (01:14:50) The Rise Of Experiential Hospitality (01:17:50) WeWork & Adam Neumann (01:23:00) Dilweg's View on Office Markets In Big U.S. Metropolitan Cities (01:29:10) The Work-From-Home Debate (01:46:00) The Rise of Private Credit

Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Geopolitical Risks Are Often Mispriced (09:20) Papic's Outlook on Russia-Ukraine War (13:30) Blank Checks For Ukraine Are Getting Very Politically Expensive For Western Politicians (23:11) Military Alliances Can Be Dangerous (25:41) Papic on Israel-Hamas War: "Palestinian Issues Have Never Had A Market Impact" (27:31) Papic Believes That Conflict "Will Be Contained To Israel" (34:29) Gold's Recent Rally As Central Banks Diversify Away From U.S. Dollar (37:16) The Market Has Become Aware That World Is Increasingly Multipolar (42:39) Analogy To World War 1 and World War 2 (48:00) What Makes A Great Power? (52:19) What Are China's Global Ambitions As A Great Power? (59:35) China & Taiwan (01:06:58) U.S.-China Economic Relations (Flow of Trade and Capital) (01:11:05) There Will Be A Huge Buying Opportunity In China Over Next 12-18 Months (01:13:27) U.S. Presidential Election (01:16:47) I Think There's No Way In Hell The Fed Raises Rates Over The Next Twelve Months (01:19:43) American Elites Are Not Very Smart __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Until November 27th, a 20% discount can be obtained on 4-pack passes to DAS as well. Use code “BLACKROCK” at checkout. __ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante Data on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow Marketreader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Introduction (00:25) It's Been A Busy Year (02:29) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy (13:06) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (15:44) Jens' Bull Case For Rates (22:27) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate (28:41) Potential For "Big Cuts" (31:07) An Extraordinary Summer In FX (34:34) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the “greatest carry trade in the world,” may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. This would have massive implications on global markets, which Glinsman expounds on in depth. Filmed on November 20, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (09:19) The Deficit Will Probably Increase, Not Decrease (11:05) U.S. Election (15:21) Crypto & European Sovereign Debt Crisis (26:13) Germany's Fiscal Situation (31:51) Geopolitics in Middle East (35:26) The "Biggest Carry Trade In The World" (56:03) Stock Market (01:07:27) U.S. China Relations Are Improving __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023. __ Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:51) Stock/Bond Correlation (14:39) Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L (16:30) Gold & Oil (21:55) Narratives Are Cheap (26:36) Investing Vs. Trading (32:37) Banks & Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (40:46) Correlations & Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) (49:12) Jason's Long Position in The Swiss Franc (55:26) The Role Of Stop Losses (01:03:42) When To Get Out __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the “true” risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and one of many claims that Jack pushes back on, some others being that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has effectively no impact on the economy and that the 10-year Treasury yield is an accurate gauge of future nominal GDP. FIlmed on October 30, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:00) The Huge Economic Boom Is Just Getting Started (07:16) George Says Federal Reserve Has "Violent" Control of the Press (11:49) George Says Risk-Free Rates Are Commonly Misunderstood (20:32) Federal Reserve is "One Of Greatest Creations Of U.S. Democracy," Says George Robertson (23:08) Debate About Interest Rate Impact on Mortgage Prepayment Speeds (30:00) Debate About Whether Mortgage Curve Is "True" Yield Curve (51:19) SOFR is Complete Useless Garbage (01:02:14) Minsky Comes In: Hedge Phase to Speculative Phase to Ponzi Phase (01:26:00) 10-Year Headed To 6% As "Cheap As Hell" Stocks Will Enter "Ponzi Phase" (01:30:40) It's "Foolish" To Make A Call On Labor as Jobs Market At 50-Year High, Says George Robertson (01:34:00) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) & Inflation (01:45:29) George's Experience With Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes -- Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://t.co/jfb5Vw982B Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds (07:18) Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy (11:47) Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data (17:29) Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis (21:13) Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession (22:53) Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash (26:59) Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023 (29:41) Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher (31:55) Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates (39:39) Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker" (41:33) Views On The Dollar & The Euro (42:55) Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K. (47:47) View On British Stocks (50:16) China & Japan (01:00:22) Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset (01:03:08) The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008 (01:05:40) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expects a modest slowdown in 2024. Filmed on November 3, 2023. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Less Overweight Equities Than In January... But Still Overweight (06:54) Monitor of Analysts’ Earnings Revisions (MAER) (11:31) The Housing Market (& Homebuilding Industry) (15:18) The Banks (16:50) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (18:43) Healthcare & Commodity Sectors (20:18) Chinese Stocks (23:55) S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (31:40) Equity Momentum Has Weakened (34:39) Disinflation Will Continue, The Soft Landing Is Here (42:40) At What Point Does Global Manufacturing & Trade Downturn Impact The U.S. Economy? (48:10) Fiscal Tailwinds In The U.S. (54:20) If Interest Rates Decline, Soft Landing Very Likely -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On Todays episode, Ben Santonelli Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital joins the show for a discussion on the state of the high yield bond market. Expecting further weakness in the high yield space, but nothing outside the normal credit cycle, Ben explains where he is finding the best opportunities as "debt investors can now generate equity type returns". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: FG20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:49) Debt Investors Are Generating Equity Type Returns (05:38) Default Rates Will Increase In 2024 & Beyond (12:41) Loan-to-Value (LTV): Investing In High Quality Businesses (20:05) Loan Demand Has Declined Since 2022 (22:35) Liquidity (31:00) Credit Spreads Are Still Tight (35:35) Credit's Performance During A Recession (39:20) The Weakness In Credit Is Mostly Margin Compression (46:46) If Interest Rates Remain Higher For Longer, We Will See Refinancing Issues (50:41) Wages & Labor -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Spinozzi Remains Bearish On Very Long Duration Bonds (08:18) View On Investment Grade Bonds (09:46) Who Will Be Marginal Buyer Of U.S. Treasurys? (15:40) Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasurys (& Japanese Investors) (22:40) The Shape of the Yield Curve (24:07) Balance Sheet Policy (QT & QE) (32:32) Much Of Europe Is In Recession (42:21) European Demand For U.S. Treasurys (45:47) Barbell Approach To Fixed Income (Short-Term & 10-Year) __ Follow Althea Spinozzi on Twitter https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to Forward Guidance alongside Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.  MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting Follow Michael Kao on Twitter https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Michael Ippolito on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates, to no longer work at 8% mortgage buyers. He thinks a recession might start in Q2 2024 as employment in residential construction begins to wane. Filmed on October 27, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Warren Pies on Twitter https://twitter.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/3F_Research Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Why Warren Has Been Significantly Underweight Bonds (And Why He Is No Longer) (12:12) Earnings Expectations For Stocks (24:59) Warren's View On Housing Market & Recession (33:31) The Buydown Math For Homebuilders Stops Working At 8% (40:21) Labor Market Remains Very Tight (43:44) Is U.S. Economy Reaccelerating From Trough of 2022? (48:21) Warren's View On Oil (50:56) Hedge Funds Tend To Short Oil On A Directional Basis As Opposed To Being Part of a Basis Trade (Such As So Often The Case In Bonds) (52:42) Overweight Position In Energy Stocks (Within Equity Sleeve) (01:00:09) Pro-Cyclical Deficits Run By U.S. Government __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What you’re about to listen to is a conversation with Jeremy Siegel, distinguished professor of economics at Wharton, Jeremy Schwartz, CIO of WisdomTree, and Dave Goodson, head of securitized products at Voya Financial, and Jack Farley, who was a guest on this episode of the “Behind The Markets” podcast. The first part of this discussion features Professor Siegel’s macro view on bonds, stocks, and the economy, and the second part of the conversation is devoted to Dave Goodson’s in-depth analysis of the world of securitized products, such as agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Original episode of “Behind The Markets”: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley-dave-goodson/id1194707802?i=1000632103956 __ Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:000 Introduction (01:06) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel (09:07) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (10:51) Dave Goodson On Bond Market (15:42) Does The Historic Cheapness of Agency mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Bank Funding Stress? (21:41) Opportunities in Non-Agency Structured Products (23:24) Dave Goodson On Non-Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (31:57) Is The Risk In Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Not Fully Priced? (40:11) Private Credit CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jack welcomes Casey Wagner, Blockworks' senior policy correspondent, to recap the wild day of the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on October 26th, when SBF at last takes a stance to testify and rebut allegations of financial crimes. Casey Wagner's recent article on the trial: https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-defense-missing-document https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-day-13__ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:27) Evidence Destruction (Document Retention Policy, Of Which There Is No Available Record) (18:17) First Two Witnesses For The Defence (27:04) Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks His Silence (Sworn Testimony Without Jury) (34:38) Courtroom Politics (42:29) How Long Would SBF's Potential Sentence Be? (45:38) Jury Selection & Reaction __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

On todays episode, Craig Manchuck Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Osterweis joins the show for a discussion on the end of the zero interest rate era.  We deep dive into the bond market sell-off over the past 3 years, where to find opportunities in the bond market & the rise of private credit. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) The Low Interest Rate Era Is Over (06:55) The Fed's Tightening Will Lead To A Recession (17:47) Investing In A Zero Rate Regime vs Today (23:34) The Indexation Of Fixed Income (27:22) How CLOs & Passive Have Impacted Bonds (41:33) Where Is The Pain From Higher Interest Rates Being Felt? (48:10) The Heyday Of Private Equity Is Over (01:00:19) Liquidity In Private Credit (01:09:35) Understanding The Credit Spread Curve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy.  We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we seen enough pain for bond investors, or will recessionary headwinds lead to a rally in bonds? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance --  Follow Aidan Garrib on Twitter https://twitter.com/AidanGarrib Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Understanding The Chinese Economy (07:13) China's Stock Market Has Been Flat For A Decade (13:46) Understanding China's Shadow Debt (19:01) China's Real Estate Bubble (25:06) China's Crackdown On Credit (28:19) Is There Systemic Risk In China? (32:16) What's Happening With The Yuan? (36:32) China Is In Recession (43:47) China's Global Reserve Currency Ambitions (50:05) Finding Opportunities In China (57:37) The Bond Market Sell-Off (01:03:50) The Outlook For Equities (01:06:05) Is The U.S Heading For A Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview: “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf “International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf “On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf “Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf __ Follow Bank For International Settlements on Twitter https://twitter.com/BIS_org Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy? (15:56) The Financial Cycle (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening) (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches" (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

John Toohig, managing director and head of whole loan trading at Raymond Jaymes, and Nathan Stovall, director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, join Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to update listeners on the state of the U.S. banking industry. Surging deposit costs, steadily rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity are just some of the topics discussed in this conversation. Filmed the afternoon of October 18, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Latest edition of John Toohig’s “Let’s Talk Loans”: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-70-john-toohig/ __ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Nate Stovall on Twitter https://twitter.com/StreetTalkpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the recently released third quarter earnings from banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citi, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs. Whalen also discusses with Farley companies about to report such as American Express, PNC Financial, Bank of the Ozarks, and Truist. Filmed the afternoon of October 17, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bank Earnings For Third Quarter So Far Are "Cautiously Mediocre" (03:07) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (10:22) Defaults Remain Within 2019 Levels (15:17) Chris Is Somewhat Bearish On Most Of U.S. Banking Sector (19:09) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) (34:48) Goldman Sachs ($GS) (42:42) Regional Banks (PNC, U.S. Bank, Truist) (46:40) Card Issuers Such As American Express, Discover, and Capital One (48:10) Private Equity & Private Credit (51:22) CRE Lenders Such As KeyCorp, Western Alliance, and Bank of the Ozarks (52:28) Risk Of Another Bank Failure (57:53) Potential Of "TARP 2.0" (01:01:30) Is Recent Bear Steepening In Bond Market Good For Banks' Earnings Power? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of “Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century,” joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Filmed on October 12, 2023. __ Helen Thompson’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Disorder-Hard-Times-21st-Century/dp/0198864981 Helen Thompson’s book on Oxford Press: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disorder-9780198864981 Helen Thompson at Cambridge: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/Staff_and_Students/dr-helen-thompson __ Follow Helen Thompson on Twitter https://twitter.com/HelenHet20 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Energy In Europe (09:27) Wind and Solar (13:36) Nuclear Energy (22:07) Federal Reserve Has Made American Monetary Power The Strongest It's Ever Been (32:11) Are Fed Rate Hikes A Problem For The Rest Of The World? (35:35) Implications Of Sovereign Debt Levels On Political Economy (41:55) Financial Repression And Capital Controls (51:34) The Future Of Money And The Dollar (56:47) U.S. China Relations (01:00:46) Conflict In Israel __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off (04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over? (06:37) The Economy Remains Strong… For Now (13:23) Fading The Soft Landing (19:36) The Passive Investing Machine Keeps Churning (26:19) Who Is The Marginal Buyer Of Bonds In 2023/24? (30:49) We're In The Late Stages Of A Macro Cycle (36:16) A Maturity Wall Is On The Horizon (38:42) The Best Risk/Reward In Markets (49:20) Bitcoin, Gold & Bond's During Geopolitical Conflict (59:12) Recession & The Unemployment Rate (01:02:48) Banks Are Less Important In The Credit Cycle Today (01:15:51) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (01:24:05) Seeking Alpha vs Beta -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023. Follow David Cervantes on Twitter https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) Why 1 Year Ago Cervantes Thought Recession Was Unlikely (07:05) Cervantes' Short Bond Trade (14:45) Fed Policy (26:16) Tracking The Economy (32:35) There May Be A Slowdown, But A Recession Is Unlikely In Near-Term (45:41) The Maturity Wall Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Lyn Alden Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy & Author of Broken Money joins the show for a discussion on the recent bond market meltdown before diving deep into why our current monetary order is broken, the pro's vs con's of hard money and how Bitcoin could be a solution to the current monetary disorder.To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better: https://amzn.to/3tizFVg Money and the Mechanism of Exchange: https://bit.ly/3rJDpi0 -- Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Meltdown (11:18) Buying Bonds Here Is Not A Great Trade (14:30) Are We Heading For A U.S Recession? (17:12) Commercial Real Estate Is Under Pressure, Energy Remains Strong (21:51) Risk vs Reward In Equities (24:38) Broken Money: What Is Money? (31:45) Why Is Money Broken? (36:43) The "Golden Age" Of Money (43:00) Does "Sound Money" Lead To Prosperity? (46:49) The 21st Century Has Marked The Golden Age Of Energy (51:23) The Lack Of Transparency In Fiat Money (54:54) Hard Money Puts A Check On Government Spending (01:02:22) Countries Will Demand A Harder Currency Over Time: U.S Dollars, Gold & Bitcoin (01:06:32) Re-Thinking The Current Monetary System (01:16:26) Bitcoin Is In The Early Phase Of Adoption (01:21:53) Bitcoin & The Layers Of Money (01:35:34) The Bridge From Fiat To Bitcoin (01:41:02) Stablecoins -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment (21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds? (27:37) Bond Market Term Premium (35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities (38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe (46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening (54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market (58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging (01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve (01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks? (01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not? (01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the steep sell-off in the long-end of the U.S. Treasury market. Filmed on September 25, 2023. Follow Luke Gromen on Twitter https://twitter.com/LukeGromen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Spencer Jakab, editor of Heard On The Street for The Wall Street Journal, joins Forward Guidance to share what he learned writing his latest book, “The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors.” Jakab and Farley discuss meme-stock mania in all its aspects: the outwitting of hedge funds by individual investors, the transformation of r/WSB from a trading club to a “movement,” the shameless promotion by influencers, and the tallying of who ultimately got rich. Filmed on September 19, 2023. Spencer’s book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/690543/the-revolution-that-wasnt-by-spencer-jakab/ Spencer’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-That-Wasnt-GameStop-Investors/dp/0593421159 Follow Spencer Jakab on Twitter https://twitter.com/Spencerjakab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:23) Fleecing Of Small Investors (16:40) Problems At The Clearinghouse (31:13) Gamma Squeezes via Out-of-the-Money Short-Dated Call Options (38:19) Who Was Still Short? (51:02) The r/wsb Strategy Become A Movement (56:28) The Influencers: Dave Portnoy, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Jack Farley (01:06:10) The Theories Of Conspiracy (01:13:44) How To Beat Wall Street (Actually) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government Shutdown

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joins Jack Farley to share her views on crypto regulation and the SEC’s purview of it. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:39) Crypto & Transparency - What Is The SEC's Role? (07:29) What Is A "Security"? Commissioner Peirce's Views (15:00) SEC Proposal To Change Definition Of An Exchange (17:00) Crypto And Alleged "Lawlessness" (20:21) Does The SEC's Jurisdiction Begin And End With "Securities"? (23:07) Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) (26:45) Proposed Money Market Fund (MMF) Reform (29:14) Difference Between A Money Market Fund And A Stablecoin

Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Is Macro A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto? (23:41) Will Fed Keep Interest Rates "Higher For Longer"? (28:53) The Banking System (34:14) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (39:58) Final Verdict: Will Macro Be A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto (Or Does It Not Matter)?

Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"

Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) No Rate Cuts If Oil Prices Stay High (06:28) Jim Bianco: The Recession Already Happened In 2022 (15:11) What Is Appropriate Level On Interest Rates (And Bond Yields) For U.S. Economy? (24:59) A "Garden Variety Recession" Hasn't Occurred In Many Decades (33:28) Household's And Corporates' Terming Out Of Debt In 2020 (34:41) Mortgage Market Is Hurting Banks (42:55) Fixed-Income Outlook: Duration Vs. Credit (45:37) Jim Bianco: Macro Will Be A Headwind For Crypto (51:54) Increased Regulatory Scrutiny For Crypto

Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered a severe drawdown. Filmed on September 6, 2023. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:04) Alpha & Beta (02:25) What Hedge Funds Do Well (11:17) Paying High Hedge Fund Feeds Is Like "Shooting Yourself In The Foot" (14:31) The Strategy of Managed Futures (or Commodity Trading Advisors) (29:40) The Rise of the "Pod Model" In Multi-Manager Hedge Funds (39:00) Picking Hedge Fund Managers Is A Largely Hopeless Task (44:29) Many Hedge Funds Have Missed The 2023 Tech Rally (50:24) Optimal Rebalancing Between Strategies (57:53) History Of Bad Ideas In Creation of New Investment Products: "Alternative Risk Premia" (59:42) A Lof Of Academic Finance Is Insane (01:01:20) The "Value Factor" As We Once Knew It No Longer Exists (01:16:36) Ark & Cathie Wood (01:25:51) China Was "Adored" By Hedge Fund Community

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Link to YCharts' Webinar on September 22nd: https://ycharts.zoom.us/webinar/register/5916933495668/WN_OD3x5xyzQ7qWTrtGDChLFA Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond Yields

This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies”: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Prometheus Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle (07:57) How To Measure Liquidity (15:51) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon (24:09) Is The Fed Behind The Curve? (29:10) Inflation (38:25) Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough... Yet (43:17) When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds (50:44) Private vs Public Sector Liquidity (59:41) Prometheus Research -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulife’s Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023. -- Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Follow “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7103476860633718784/ Follow Moody’s CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/ Moody’s CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates (11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise (13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents (19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals? (22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations (25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate (30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans (35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value" (40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses (42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing) (45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors? (48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans (52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) (01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market (01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing (01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels) (01:16:45) China (01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System (01:22:52) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow Mike Singleton https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The Excess Savings Debate (17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023 (19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds (24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7% (48:52) The Spending Boom ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack interviews William “Bill” Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility. Filmed on August 16, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ William "Bill" Isaac is Chairman of Secura/Isaac Group, a global advisory firm serving the financial services industry. Bill has an unparalleled career in the financial industry and public service, spanning over 50 years. He served as Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1978 through 1985, working to maintain stability during the banking and thrift crises of the 1980s, when over 3,000 banks and thrifts failed. He also served as Chairman of Fifth Third Bancorp. For more information on Bill's past and current work, visit securaisaac.com ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs? (21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System (31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control (40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair (49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory) (56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration (01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic? (01:16:42) Debating The Need For Zero Interest Rates After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timecodes:

Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserve’s by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLB’s mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) About Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System (21:08) FHLB Is Much, Much Less Centralized Than The Federal Reserve (25:47) San Francisco FHLB Advances To Now-Defunct West Coast Banks (34:48) FHLB & Affordable Housing (38:07) What Caused Banks' Scramble For Cash in March 2023? (46:21) FHLB Implict Government Guarantee (57:24) How Have FHLBs Never Lost Any Money On Advances To Banks? (01:06:58) Interest Rate Hedging (01:08:31) Liquidity Issues In U.S. Banking System Have "Calmed Down Quite A Bit" (01:15:16) Capital Stock Of Federal Home Loan Banks (01:24:40) Will Regulators Attempt To Curb FHLB Lending To Non-Mission-Oriented Institutions? (01:28:00) Potential New FHFA Regulation of FHLB ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Zelman & Associates 2023 Virtual Housing Summit: Our 16th Annual Housing Summit continues to provide rich market content, lively panel discussions and fresh perspectives on the housing ecosystem that is unique to Zelman & Associates. Our panel discussions have C-Suite executives moderated by our elite team. We break down content, providing you with actionable insights that will help navigate the current market uncertainty and on into 2024. Zelman's ultimate goal (as always) was to provide you with the most accurate, in-depth and differentiated data and information to help you be successful in your endeavors.   Registration Cost: $850.00 Special Discount: Email Kim Gray – kim@zelmanassociates.com to register and mention this podcast for a 25% discount! Housing Summit Event Page: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/conference_home.html?bank_access=0&event_id=96353 Housing Summit Agenda: https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_96353/__agenda_cp.html Why Attend Our Housing Summit: Deemed The Best Housing-Related Conference of Year  Attended by over 1,000 Institutional Investors and Industry Executives  Thought-Provoking Panels Across The Housing Mosaic  Corporate Access for Investors and Unique Networking Opportunities  A Who’s Who of Housing with all of the major public and private prevailing thought leaders in attendance     About Zelman & Associates: Extensive macro, sector and company-specific equity research, exclusive industry surveys, stock recommendations, and insights leveraging our constant flow of real-time data. Our insights help connect the dots between all aspects of the housing mosaic to inform strategies and decisions rooted in confidence. Serving institutional investors, corporations, private equity, fixed income, private investors, RIAs and more. https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro Outlook

Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok. We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade (11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall (15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance (19:58) Commercial Real Estate (23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle? (26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target? (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisis About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok (11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt (20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates (28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System (31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market (35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher? (38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.” Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines

James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction  (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin? (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities (01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve (01:15:04) Tether (01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising? (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"? (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)? (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates. Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Something Has To Crack (11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up (22:09) Recession Risk (26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds? (32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007 (36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"? (40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling? (43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!) (45:40) U.S. Housing Market (49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar (01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish (01:08:34) China (01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market (05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data (14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed (23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds? (31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields (34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? (42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time? (46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade (49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week. With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity” joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment that’s driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk. Follow Peter Atwater on Twitter https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Peter Atwater’s book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity”: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/ “The Confidence Map” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless. ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market (06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger (15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively (21:28) The Confidence Map (33:00) Passive Investing (39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets (43:04) U.S. Banking System (45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later (57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve (01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market (02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil (11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices (24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop? (31:36) Guyana (34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies (49:13) The Russian Supply Question (54:55) Price Cap (59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil (01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls (01:09:02) Futures Curve (01:15:07) Recession Risk ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy. Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076 Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing? (02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow (05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up? (09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks? (15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies (17:37) The VXX ETF (24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers (29:54) Risk Management (35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make? (44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong (49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy? (56:41) Liquidity (01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing (01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kelly’s latest “Without Warning” Substack: https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained (18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging (38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses (46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System? (54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile" (01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame (01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vítor Constâncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constâncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECB’s hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vítor Constâncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand (08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio (10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023 (14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession (16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve? (20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates (25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy (32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages (34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis (44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank) (49:51) Credit Suisse (51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging (54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023. After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct “The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 (13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? (23:43) Forecasting Oil Prices (31:05) European Gas Prices (33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis (41:34) Chinese Oil Demand (01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market (01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk (01:24:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? — Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booth’s institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/. $3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong. Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data, “painfully corrupted.” Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023. -- Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest (07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts (09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right? (14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market (16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted" (24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary (28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle (35:04) QI Pro Discount (39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauley’s life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollar’s role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed. -- Robert McCauley’s Eighth Edition of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes”: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/ On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007X Robert McCauley’s papers referenced during the show: “The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions”: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/ “Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing”: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf “Seven decades of international banking”: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf “The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War,” pages 123-128: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf “London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey”: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdf Joseph Wang’s latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System (19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost (26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will? (39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago (43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars? (53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air? (01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys? (01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege" (01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps (01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol). Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023. -- Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low (07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower (15:14) Tail Risk Strategies (36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options (41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options (52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options (01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week. With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Louis Camhi, founder and chief investment officer of RLH Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to provide a strategic update on the world of SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). ___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead" (17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023 (32:08) Warrant Arbitrage (59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act (01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product" (01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates (01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications (01:32:07) View on Banks (01:38:26) Cannabis ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing. Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy (04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023 (08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy (15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's (18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023 (20:45) Permissionless (21:22) Market Hedging (27:53) Market Liquidity (29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020 (33:18) Artificial Intelligence (39:49) Blockworks Research (40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium (49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading (55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets? (59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend (01:03:39) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return.  Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023. ____ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument
44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023. Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:51 Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble? 28:21 The Lipstick Effect 32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified? 41:57 Permissionless 42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence 50:43 Blockworks Research

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down. Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: “Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat “Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable “Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit “SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing. Immortalized in “The Big Short,” Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s ____ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance ____ Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The Current Setup (06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally? (09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks (13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution (21:17) Public.com (22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds (26:24) Outlook on Stocks (29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses (31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position? (32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions? (34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent (42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis (44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense (54:01) Private Equity (01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates? (01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward (01:12:46) Energy Stocks (01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died” (01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom" (01:21:52) Uranium ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023.  Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market.  We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show:  Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/  Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/  -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Preparing For June FOMC (05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut? (07:25) Back To 2019 (10:35) Permissionless (11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade (19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023 (25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022 (34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors? (38:31) Equity Flows (43:46) Blockworks Research (44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023? (51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account (01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher? (01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy,” is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a government’s ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to today’s financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Fed’s rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023. ____ Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmosler Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Warren’s website: https://moslereconomics.com/ Warren’s book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ (00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic (07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts" (14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money (19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second (31:23) Permissionless (32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy (33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending (48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon (54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral (01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly" (01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler (01:11:21) Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending? (01:16:30) Blockworks Research (01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling (01:24:08) The Dollar

Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023. To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktires Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_f Joseph’s latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/ Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) The Debt Ceiling (10:09) What Happens When The Treasury Runs Out Of Money? (18:20) Will The Fed Come To Rescue? (Yes, Say Dominique & Joseph) (27:19) What Counts As A "Default"? (32:21) MacroHive (32:57) How Might The Market React? (36:05) Are These "Magical Measures" Just A Temporary Fix? (37:50) Payment Prioritization (41:45) U.S. Treasury's Non-Marketable Debt Will Play A Key Role (50:02) Potential For "Huge Liquidity Drain" As Treasury Plans On Issuing $1 Trillion In Bills Over The Next Six Months (01:01:10) Dominique and Joseph's Views On The Economy (01:08:20) Joseph's Updated Views On Banks

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this year’s huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023. ____ Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong (01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing" (04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades (07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism (09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year (14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report (17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold (22:28) Permissionless (23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market (28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes? (34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor) (40:22) Blockworks Research (41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market (46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade (48:57) Stop Losses (50:36) Bank Stocks (51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro (53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling (01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to. Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw  Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook (10:25) Oil Companies Profitability (11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023? (17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade? (19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices (22:52) Permissionless (23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap? (35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle (39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession? (44:44) The Economics Of ESG (47:03) Blockworks Research (48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY (54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil (57:26) Sankey Research (01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history. Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023. ____ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. ____ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk (12:56) What Causes A Bank Run? (17:55) Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking? (21:55) Van Eck Ad (22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going (25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation (29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night (31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks (32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank (34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement" (37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained (42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks (47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock) (49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be “imminently” passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden. ____ Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (“Ahead Of The Heard”), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd  And use code “Forward Guidance” at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. “Ahead of The Heard” typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week. To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsman’s institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research And use code “Blockworks” for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month.  ____ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative (04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking? (05:48) Banking System (08:43) Commercial Real Estate (32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility (42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS (01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj  --  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw  Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos — Referenced In The Show: Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act  Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil (02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run (07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve (11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History (17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917? (22:57) Permissionless ad (24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot (29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History? (35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program (41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress (46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression (55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling (58:19) Blockworks Research (59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks (10:33) Credit Risks (15:49) Shadow Banking System (19:35) Permissionless (20:38) Loan Growth (29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing (34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues (37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher (40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"? (43:34) Commercial Real Estate (49:42) Bank Run Risks (56:14) Blockworks Research (57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed? (01:00:54) China (01:08:50) Closing Thoughts

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors.  ____ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) Tracking Capital Flows (01:43) Where Is The Money Going? (19:53) The Dollar And The Euro (25:30) Blockworks Research (26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data? (38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys? (41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization (46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar (57:14) Permissionless (58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities (01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:40) China's Economic Growth Model (18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China (26:01) Van Eck ad (26:51) Domestic Consumption In China (35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works (39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble (43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China (49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue (01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy (01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity? (01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S. (01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rd’s Federal Reserve’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks.  Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Intro (11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)? (15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put (25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell" (29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground" (34:30) Permissionless (35:34) The Balance Sheet (40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks (47:41) Blockworks Research (48:41) The Debt Ceiling (54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession" (58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar (59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine (01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of “Trillion Dollar Triage” joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023. --- Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784 Timiraos’ article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936 Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage”: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817 --- Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that “conditions in the banking sector have improved.” Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted. Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Fed’s last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets. Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farley’s discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75. Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw — Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Referenced In The Show: The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC  — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market (05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago (15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks? (18:57) Natural Gas (23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies? (28:50) Permissionless (29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market (33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE) (40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook (56:19) Blockworks Research (57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World (01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today First Republic, America’s 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from today’s takeover. ____ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic (04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First" (07:06) "We Just Need More Time" (09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut" (11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down (15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? (19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk (37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow” (40:55) Permissionless (41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back) (52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) (55:38) Blockworks Research (56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance (01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a “little rocky.”  __ “Money and Empire”: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB “Money and Empire” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570 __ Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrling Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ “The New Lombard Street”:  https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk Perry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, “Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System? (02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic (06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought (08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008" (11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1 (24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold (26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger (27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)? (30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky" (36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking (39:06) Blockworks Research (40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis (43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together" (46:45) The Four Prices Of Money (56:02) Permissionless (57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma (01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods (01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he’s no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces he’s no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, “Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning.” Filmed on April 17, 2023. ____ Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade (08:36) Outlook On Stocks (12:24) Healthcare Sector (14:53) Permissionless (15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting" (19:26) Gold Mining Stocks (22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold (24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds? (27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit" (28:38) Jared's New Book (30:03) What Is Luck? (36:55) Blockworks Research (37:55) Is Finance Depraved?

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse.  Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/ Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankus Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show:  THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/ The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183  THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.com The Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/ — Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023  Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:20) What Is Shadow Money? (14:51) The Collapse of SVB (22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program (29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis (31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis (37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates? (45:17) The New Monetary Policy (01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory (01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral (07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme (15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management (18:47) Credit Crunch (22:35) Public Ad (23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over? (30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible? (33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber? (35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.) (39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels (44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020? (47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021? (49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money" (55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right? (56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium (01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for China’s re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:32) "You Shouldn't Go All-In Against The United States & The U.S. Dollar" (12:06) Van Eck (12:55) Why Trade Is Invoiced In Dollars (19:01) The Bretton Woods System And The Rise Of "EuroDollars" (Offshore Dollars) (24:18) "Don't Confuse A Possibility With A Probability" (30:52) Sanctions (33:56) The Gold Standard And The Necessary Features Of A Global Reserve Currency (38:44) Bitcoin Standard Would Be "Massively Deflationary" (40:52) Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold? (42:05) When And Why Does The Dollar Spike Higher Against Other Currencies? (47:58) The Debt Ceiling (58:13 China's Belt and Road Initiative (01:00:58) Fears Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis (01:05:06) Currency Hegemons Will Continue To Be The Norm ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights on the health and nature of the banking system of New Zealand, where he currently resides. Filmed on April 6, 2023. -- Follow Martin Lubberink on Twitter https://twitter.com/cetier1 Read Martin Lubberink’s blog at https://capitalissues.co/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Pieces discussed in the interview: “The Value of Kiwibank” Fresh RBNZ Dashboard data shows New Zealand’s largest banks on track to meet increasing capital ratio requirements” Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:39) Lubberink's Background In Bank Capital During The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (08:04) What Is Bank Capital? (13:37) Silicon Valley Bank Was A Masterclass In "How To Not Run A Bank" (18:16) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (25:55) Permissionless (26:59) Important Regulatory Bank Capital Ratios (37:26) Credit Suisse & Additional Tier 1 Bonds (46:14) Operational Risks (48:11) "New Zealand Banks Are Among The Most Resilient Banks In The World” (51:32) Interest Rate Hedging Again (Jack Is Obsessed) (55:10) Blockworks Research (56:11) Kiwi Bank (01:01:33) Monetary Policy Of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZ's Central Bank) (01:04:08) Real Estate Boom in New Zealand (01:06:59) Relaxation Of U.S. Banking Regulation

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:33) "Deathly Silence" In Private Equity World (16:13) "There Will Be A 'Mark-to-Market' Moment" (19:31) Issues In Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (21:47) Public ad (22:50) Auto Loans Are In Distress (30:36) The Residential Housing Market (36:39) ill Inflation Fall? (38:08) Fed Expects A Recession (41:12) Money Growth Is Lowest Since Great Depression (44:30) The Debt Ceiling (51:09) The Bernanke Doctrine In Jeopardy? (QE whil rates are above zero) (01:03:40) Quantitative Easing Is NOT Back, Says Danielle (01:09:28) Closing Thoughts On Credit Crunch -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jerome Schneider, managing director at PIMCO, is a maestro of short-term funding markets. He oversees PIMCO’s >$300 Billion pool of short-term liquidity for investors (the asset side) and also devises strategies to efficiently and robustly fund PIMCO’s longer-term investments (the liability side). Schneider gives in-depth insight on how key indicators in the short-term funding world have changed during and after the March 2023 banking crisis, such as liquidity, repo, and the shape of yield curve. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, April 17th, 2023. To learn more about PIMCO, go to http://pimco.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (07:47) Why Are 1-Month Treasury Bills Trading So Expensive ("Rich") To Other Interest Rates? (11:42) The Debt Ceiling (19:02) Permissionless (20:05) The Fed Has Done A Tremendous Job In Cutting Off Tail Risks For Funding (30:43) Thoughts On An Inverted Yield Curve (36:27) The Fed Pivot (41:59) Credit Risk In Short-Term Assets (44:16) Liquidity As Offense Rather Than Liquidity As Defense (48:44) Blockworks Research (49:44) Funding PIMCO's Leveraged Strategies (56:03) Closing Thoughts On Opportunities in Short-Term Markets (59:55) Will Banks Have To Pay More For Deposits?

On todays episode of Forward Guidance Simon Ree Author & Founder of The Tao Of Trading joins the show for a discussion on the key principles for becoming a successful trader.  Simon takes us back to March 2020, a period which kicked off an aggressive bull market leading all the way up to 2022. In 2022, many market participants got caught offside as the aggressive rally suddenly turned into an equally as aggressive bear market. Now in 2023, the bulls and bears standoff at a cross roads waiting for the next indicator of where markets are heading. Simon walks through the difficult past 3 years in markets, and explains the key principles to remember when investing in this current market paradigm.  -- Follow Simon: https://twitter.com/simon_ree Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Simon's Entry To Finance: Black Monday (03:37) What Makes A Successful Trader? (05:10) Consistency Is A Superpower (07:29) I am Not A Trader, I am A Risk Manager (09:50) The Process of Making A Trade (12:54) Trading A Bull Market (17:41) Trading A Bear Market (19:14) Permissionless ad (20:17) Trading The Inflationary Bear Market of 2022 (29:05) Market Positioning, Sentiment & Short Squeezes (34:13) Blockworks Research (35:13) The Principles of Technical Analysis (37:19) Trading The Bull Market of 2020 (40:01) Assessing Current Market Conditions 946:02) The TAO of Trading (52:53) The Biggest Opportunities In Markets (56:26) How To Compound Your Returns (01:02:54) Finding The Right Trading Strategy For You -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to comment on the ample and growing earnings of the big banks (particularly JPMorgan Chase, whose stock surged over 7% on rosy net income and increasing deposits).  Whalen argues that banks’ unrealized losses on their securities due to interest rate risk have gone down dramatically as interest rates have fallen since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10. However, he expects banks’ cost of funds (what they have to pay for deposits) to continue to rise and he makes the case that the primary headwind for banks is not interest rate risk, but credit risk. Whalen argues that while there could be more bank failures ahead, he expects it will be the outlier banks that fail, not the mainstream banks. This interview was filmed the morning of Friday, April 14th, shortly after large American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2023.  __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:55) "Banks Have Lots Of Commercial Real Estate Exposure" (06:24) Banks' Unrealized Losses Have Gotten Smaller Over The Past Month (08:25) The Return Of Credit Risk (16:06) Is The Banking Crisis Moderating? If So, Why? (19:18) Van Eck Ad (20:06) There's A Slowdown in Lending (22:08) Quantitative Easing's Distortion Of Bank Balance Sheets (24:32) Chris Suggests The Fed Sell Securities Into The Market (28:27) "The Bid For Risk Free Dollar Assets Is Still Off The Scale" (30:12) Recent Rally In Bonds Has Helped Bank Book Value (36:23) "People Love To Say The Word 'Hedge' And Then Change The Subject"

Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically default and walk away from the buildings. McNamara shares why he has been shorting the riskier tranches of CRE loans via the CMBX, and he tells Jack Farley why the cascade of defaults he expects will cause tremendous damage to the securitized market for CRE loans. Key terms for this interview: CRE = Commercial Real Estate CMBS = Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities CMBX = a synthetic tradable index referencing a basket of CMBS CLO = Collateralized Loan Obligation LTV = Loan-to-value ratio Filmed on April 11, 2023. Follow Dan McNamara on Twitter https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:01) Office Properties Could Decline by 50% Or More (15:25) Defaults WIll Lead To Forced Selling (20:03) Why Rising Interest Rates Has Imperiled Many Commercial Real Estate Deals (23:25) Regional Banks Are Curbing Lending After Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (30:01) Differences Between This and The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) And "The Big Short" (35:03) Shorting Tranches of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (42:09) Views on Highly-Rated Tranches (AAA- and AA-) (45:03) Interest Rate Risk (Duration) Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (47:45) "We Are Pretty Market Neutral” (50:17) "We Think The Credit Curve Is Still Too Flat" (54:44) The "Refinancing Game" Is Over (01:11:54) If McNamara Is Right About Commercial Real Estate, How Systemic Will This Be?

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling. In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis? (06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks? (11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt (21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System (34:12) Public.com Ad (35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates (50:39) The Debt Ceiling (01:05:56) The Reserve Gap (01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose (01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins Jack Farley to share her data-driven investment outlook at a challenging time for global markets. Sonders argues that before the turmoil in the regional banking sector, the U.S. was already in a “rolling recession” where weakness rolled throughout different parts of the economy. Now, after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) in early March, Sonders thinks an official recession (i.e. one declared as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER), is more likely, and she says that she thinks a recession is “somewhat unavoidable.”  Given these headwinds, Sonders’ investment outlook is that it could be a “bumpy ride” in the short-term. However, Sonders and Farley discuss the importance of a long-term outlook and how market timing very frequently underperforms buy-and-hold strategies. Filmed on April 4th, 2023. __ Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor. __ Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Follow Charles Schwab on Twitter https://twitter.com/CharlesSchwab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Some of Liz Ann Sonders’ recent research at Charles Schwab: “Under Pressure: Fed Hikes in Face of Bank Turmoil”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting “2023 Quarterly Market Outlook: Fed on the Brink?” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/quarterly-market-outlook “Another One Bites the Dust: Banking Saga Continues”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/another-one-bites-dust-banking-saga-continues “Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/caveat-emptor-important-market-shifts-underway “The Price You Pay: A Look at Equity Valuations”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/price-you-pay-look-equity-valuations __ Timestamps: (00:35) The Fed Has Broken Something (03:09) Rate Cuts Might Be Further Away Than The Market Thinks (05:58) Already In A "Rolling Recession" (17:37) Have The Odds Of A Severe Recession (Rather Than Mild) Increased After The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (19:59) Investment Outlook For Stocks (23:11) VanEck Ad (23:59) Equity Valuations: Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive? (33:37) Short-Term Outlook: "Some More Bumps In The Road" (36:12) Time In The Market vs Timing The Market (39:27) Liquidity and Gold (41:28) Sectors And Factors Leading The Stock Market (44:14) "Growth vs. Value" Is A False Choice (49:59) International Developed Markets and Emerging Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Leonard N. Stern School of Business, author and financial historian Dr. Richard Sylla joins the show for a discussion on one of his most widely studied areas... interest rates. After authoring "A History of Interest Rates", a book which examined over four millennia of interest rates trhoughout periods of inflation, financial crises' and recessions, there's no one better equipped to discuss the Fed's current tightening cycle and how it impacted banks such as SVB in the Fed's current quest to fight inflation. Just how severe is this current tightening cycle when compared to other times in history? According to Dr. Sylla, this is nothing new as "history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: A History of Interest Rates: https://www.amazon.co.uk/History-Interest-Rates-Wiley-Finance/dp/0471732834 Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://www.amazon.com/Alexander-Hamilton-Finance-Credit-Debt/dp/0231184565 Alexander Hamilton, Central Banker: Crisis Management During the U.S Financial Panic of 1792: https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/research/alexander_hamilton_central_banker.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) A Return To Normalcy For Interest Rates (05:10) How Interest Rate Rises Led To SVB's Collapse (09:24) The First Bank of The United States (13:36) Paul Volcker's Historic Interest Rate Rises (20:35) Why We Have Inflation Now... But Not Post 2008 (28:03) Permissionless (29:06) The Fed's Between A Rock & A Hard Place (32:03) The Savings & Loan Crisis (37:41) All Signs Point Towards A Recession (44:59) Blockworks Research (45:59) What An Inverted Yield Curve Really Indicates (48:49) A Banking Panic Solution, Through The Eyes of Alexander Hamilton (57:03) How ZIRP Caused Problems In The Financial System -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

John Maxfield, banking specialist and author of the Maxfield on Banks Substack, joins Jack to discuss the history and future of the U.S. banking system. Drawing on his wide-ranging historical knowledge, Maxfield notes that when it comes to banks, failure is the norm, not the exception. Maxfield argues that the acute phase of the banking panic in the U.S. is likely over, as loan yields will rise and deposit flight will slow down. Maxfield makes the case that, paradoxically, a serious cause of bank failure is not just not enough liquidity: often banks fail because there was too much liquidity. Maxfield and Farley take an in-depth look at Silicon Valley Bank’s enormous influx in deposits, which more than tripled since the first quarter of 2020, which they used to buy an enormous amount of securities that lost value as the Fed raised rates. Filmed on April 3, 2023. ____ Follow John Maxfield on Twitter https://twitter.com/MaxfieldOnBanks “Maxfield on Banks” Substack: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:14) "Failure Is The Rule, Not The Exception" When It Comes To Banking (06:51) Diagnosing Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) Collapse (16:45) Excess Liquidity Is The Problem, Not The Solution (22:58) "Interest Rate Risk Can Be As Deadly As Credit Risk" (27:04) Permissionless (28:08) Some Banks' Unrealized Losses Exceed Book Value (36:22) Is The Bank Panic Over? (John Says Yes) (39:51) "Banks Will Always Make Money" (44:33) Will Banks Decrease Their Lending? (52:17) Blockworks Research (53:15) How Did Banks' Manage Their Interest Rate Risk? (58:02) Assumptions About Deposit Duration Play A Key Role In Asset Liability (Mis)Matching (01:05:03) About The Maxfield On Banks Substack (01:07:40) Parallel To The Savings & Loan Crisis (01:10:55) Big Banks Get Bailed Out, Small Banks Don't (Unfair?) (01:11:47) Executive Compensation And Bank Performance (An Inverse Relationship) (01:13:27) Bank Insolvency Is Not Necessarily A Death Sentence (01:21:01) What Banks Need To Learn From SVB's Collapse ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on: -what really causes inflation  -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT) -the unrealized losses on the Fed’s balance sheet -why yield curve control likely won’t be necessary (or so Peter argues) -the longer the duration of a governments’ debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away -when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who “wins” and who “loses”?  Filmed on March 29, 2023. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wang’s writings: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph’s latest piece, “Ameridollars”: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/ Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_Consult Peter Stella’s work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ “Do Central Banks Need Capital?” by Peter Stella:  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF) (03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism (05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money (07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level (13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020 (37:33) Permissionless (38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet (45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020 (51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020? (54:21) Blockworks Research Plug (55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains? (01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation (01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks. The phrase “commercial real estate” is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (“multi-family”), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is typically financed with long-term fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate was financed with floating rate debt, which means that as interest rates rose last year, the interest expense of some commercial real estate developers rose dramatically. Halaris argues that the turmoil in the banking system will likely induce banks to tighten their lending, which would inflict further hardship onto commercial real estate, much of which is financed via smaller regional banks.  Filmed on Tuesday, March 28, 2023. ____ Nick Halaris website: https://nickhalaris.com/ Profit+ Subscribe Link: https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/ Nick Halaris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickHalaris Nick Halaris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-halaris-4a25b93/ ____ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:25) What Is Commercial Real Estate? (03:20) Interest Rates Have A Huge Impact on Real Estate Valuations (11:48) "Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble" (16:58) Delinquency Rates Are Rising... (19:13) Real Estate Is No Longer An Inflation Hedge (22:45) Permissionless Ad (23:48) Real Estate "Cap Rates" And Why They Are So Often Misunderstood (26:53) "Accounting Games" In Real Estate (35:02) How Bank Turmoil Will Impact Real Estate (38:42) The End Game For Real Estate (44:30) "it's Really Hard To Get A Loan" (46:37) Prices Will Go Down More (48:36) Blockworks Research Ad (49:36) Silver Lining: Rates Could Go Down (53:33) Retail Real Estate (Shopping Malls, etc.) (54:39) The Housing Market Will Probably Remain Strong (59:29) Private Equity's Investment Into Housing (01:01:51) Nick Halaris' Newsletter, Profit Plus (01:04:25) Closing Thoughts On Rising Interest Rates ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, “Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order.”  Tucker tells Jack Farley that China’s growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S.’ role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (“Eurodollar”) dollar system, and central banks’ role as lenders of last resort.  __ “Global Discord” from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discord Global Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317 __ About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/ About Tucker’s work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tucker More about today’s guest: For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve “too big to fail”. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to “Global Discord,” Tucker is also the author of “ Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State” (2018). __ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale (04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement (10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit (20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime (21:59) The Triffin Dilemma (26:32) The Eurodollar System (27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008 (28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers (31:17) The Debt Ceiling (21:27) Thucydides' Trap (25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere" (39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party (45:29) Inflation (49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S. (55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS (01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money (01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum (01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds (01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks’ investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (“duration”) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings.   Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC) (04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment (26:16) Public.com Ad (27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent? (34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly" (41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks (53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs (57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised? (01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending? (01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)? (01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang (01:10:13) Central Banking 101 (01:14:22) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in! ____ Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a “Minksy moment”? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Minsky” (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Fed’s balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 22, 2023. Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023. -- Daniel Neilson’s article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank Daniel Neilson’s article on Fed’s BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii Daniel Neilson’s chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (05:08) "This Is A Minksy Moment" (18:04) The Takeover of Credit Suisse (28:30) Permissionless (29:33) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window (39:32) Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks? (43:33) Blockworks Research (44:37) First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability (49:32) The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines (55:43) The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12).  Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023. ____ Follow Marc Cohodes on Twitter https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw ____ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes" (23:47) Silicon Valley Bank (31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really) (58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now (01:04:18) Blockworks Research (01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout. Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/ ___ Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system? Jack’s today is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Mac’s giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock. Filmed on March 16, 2023. ___ Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background (4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game" (11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime (21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly (27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s (29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame? (33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity) (41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues (50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs (01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System (01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief (01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesn’t think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppy’s answer is simple: oil. He explains why he remains exceptionally bullish on “black gold” and also shares a stock which he has invested in: Journey Energy. Lastly, Kuppy shares his “do’s and don’ts” of investing. Filmed the afternoon of March 16, 2023. Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://kedm.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:58) The Run on Silicon Valley Bank (03:49) Will Measures By Fed Treasury & FDIC Be Enough To Prevent Future Panics? (05:55) Kuppy on Bank Stocks (10:26) Are Rising Rates Good Or Bad For Banks? (15:05) Blockworks Research (16:04) Kuppy Is Very Bullish On Oil (25:34) Natural Gas (29:10) Journey Energy (31:41) How To Value Oil Companies (36:14) Hedging At Oil Companies (37:33) Permissionless (38:36) Kuppy's Shorter-Term Market Views (44:19) Kuppy's "Dont's" of Investing (49:55) KEDM ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes! Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I -- Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until it “breaks something.” Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real interest rates, where inflation runs above Treasury yields. Filmed the afternoon of March 15, 2023. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alden’s writings can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:43) The Cause Of The Turmoil In Banking System (07:08) Are Rising Interest Rates Actually Good For Banks? (08:50) Alden's Outlook on Banks As A Business (12:47) Has Something "Broken"? (15:38) Interest Rate Risk In The U.S. Banking System (22:43) Public Ad (23:48) Will Banks Become More Cautious About Making Loans? (31:11) Is The Fed's Campaign To Raise Interest Rates Over? (38:37) Debt, Demographics, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) (53:28) Recession Risk (58:48) Stock Market During Financial Repression (01:01:29) Fractional Reserve Banking and "The Narrow Bank" __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Fed’s recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation. Kao also shares his view on today’s consumer price index (CPI) reading, China, and the global oil market. Recorded at 1pm ET on March 14, 2023. ____ Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Kaoboy Musings on Substack: https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/about Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:36) The Banking Panic Could Be Over, Says Michael Kao (09:14) It's The Shadow Banking Sector That's In Trouble (14:11) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (17:46) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy? (20:59) Blockworks Research (21:57) Do We Have Structural Inflation? (25:03) Black Swan: Oil To $300 (37:33) China's Oil Demand Is Lower Than Expected (41:13) The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball (46:24) Permissionless Ad (47:26) China's Hidden Debt (55:36) How Stable Is The U.S. Dollar As The Global Reserve Currency? (01:08:36) Closing Thoughts On Bank Panic & Federal Reserve ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a “bailout” and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous “yes.” Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://twitter.com/SteveMiran Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Hidden To Market,”on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/ The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:47 The Bank "Bailout" 09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank 20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures? 22:40 Public Ad 23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts 27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought? 31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) 41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration 52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over? 01:01:13 February Inflation Data __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET. NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972 We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune! - - Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7 Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCE Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET. -- Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Check out Weston Nakamura’s new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8 -- Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was “unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate” in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japan’s core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting. Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kuroda’s history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context. Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you don’t miss an episode! -- Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring (13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor) (18:09) Frankenstein Policy (23:26) Japanese Inflation (27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan (29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (36:37) Liquidity (43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why. Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Fed’s rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the bank’s holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis. -- Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil.  Hay describes how Volcker’s drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (“Volcker meant business”) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powell’s spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell “means business,” and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise. Follow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ __ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over? 09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis? 11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) 14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation? 17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds 21:07 Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper 30:04 Permissionless 31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds 34:17 Individual Stock Ideas 37:26 New Lows In Stock Market? 40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made" 49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack 51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like? 55:33 Does Powell Mean Business? 58:10 Blockworks Research Plug 59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing 01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now 01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on March 2, 2023. -- Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023 (08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer" (15:06) The Housing Market (28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf (33:16) Permissionless plug (34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession? (38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks (45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question) (48:35) Inflation (52:29) Research Plug (53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?" (56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing? (59:56) The Macro Compass -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM -- This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance. As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626 Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show: To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealth joins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point. With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Managing Money During 2022 (04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point" (10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management (15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed (17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There (24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers (30:24) Permissionless Plug (31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada (37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession? (40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift" (44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong (52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking (57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio (01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last year’s spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention. Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (“0DTE”) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023. Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance -- Mike Green’s Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/ Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgt Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong? (05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle (08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market (10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy (14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession (20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally (24:58) Is Liquidity Rising? (29:08) Public Ad (30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation (33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool (36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds (38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like (42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE) (58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options (01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management (01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging (01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options (01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China.  That’s according to Jack’s two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter America’s financial relationship with China. Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and former adviser to four U.S. presidents, and Nicholas Glinsman is an investor who has worked at macro hedge funds such as Brevan Howard. Their new venture Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, is a research partner of Forward Guidance.  Email jack@blockworks.co for discounted access to Malmgren Glinsman Partners (Daily newsletter $900 per year, weekly institutional product available via request). -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:53) The Fraying Of U.S China Relations (09:05) "China's Growth Model Is Dying" (18:33) Restriction of Foreign Investment In China - What Would It Look Like? (26:18) Are We In A New Economic Cold War? (35:31) Putin & Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine (41:31) "The Sternness of NATIO is New" (45:12) A Potential Peace Deal Negotiated By China? (51:49) "The Market Is Not Ready For This" (54:52) Malmgren-Glinsman Partners (59:12) Liquidity is NOT Rising, Says Malmgren (01:07:00) Is Credit Contracting? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate.  -- Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Doomberg on Substack https://doomberg.substack.com/about Steve Keen Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) What Is Wrong With Current Energy Policy? (12:44) The Green New Deal (16:10) ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:20) "Garbage" Analysis of Climate Change by Neoclassical Economics (29:10) Permissionless Plug (30:12) Nuclear, Solar, and Wind (42:30) Government Action vs. Private Sector (51:07) Doom on Europe's Energy Situation (59:19) "I Would Be Nationalizing All Fossil Fuel Companies" (01:02:35) Research plug (01:03:33) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last?  Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates. Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192 -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is The Soft Landing? (04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low” (12:45) January Inflation Data (19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates? (24:50) Outlook for Stocks (29:02) Permissionless Plug (30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound (36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade (41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening? (45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys (51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates (01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now? Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses. Filmed on February 13, 2023. -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlm Joseph Wang on QT https://rb.gy/fdwd5j -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis? (05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis" (08:16) Bank Capital Ratios (16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now? (22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort (27:20) Public Ad (28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020 (34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis? (36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising? (42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now? (46:36) "Everything Looks Fine" (50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes (54:05) Inverted Yield Curve (54:56) The Debt Ceiling (01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike? (01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System (01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the world’s leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world. After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that global liquidity conditions reached a nadir in October 2022 and since then have been rising, in part due to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injecting trillions of Yuan into the Chinese financial system, as well as money market funds pulling cash from the Fed’s reverse repo (RRP) facility. Howell also shares with Forward Guidance listeners his thoughts on why the yield curve is sending a false signal, as well as on private credit creation and cross-border flows. -- Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:40) Liquidity Is Rising - Why? (06:17) But What About Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (09:03) Treasury Market Liquidity & Bank Reserves (18:10) People's Bank of China Is Injecting Lots of Liquidity (25:48) Y2K Fed Comparison (30:50) Market Outlook for 2023 (32:58) Curve Ad (35:12) Liquidity Outlook For Next Few Years (41:38) Inverted Yield Curve Could Be Sending False Signal (50:40) Are Rate Cuts Actually Coming? (59:40) Private Sector Liquidity & Cross-Border Flows (1:06:50) Consequences On Global Economy (1:13:01) Is Liquidity Resurgence Already Priced In? (1:17:48) "Rebound" Phase In Liquidity Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market. After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (16:14) The Fed in 2022 (21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly" (24:02) Blockworks Research (25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022 (27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally (32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship (36:11) Permissionless Plug (37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong (40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing? (44:23) Defining Liquidity (46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds? (48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally? (50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME (51:46) Yield Curve View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater. Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/ Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/ -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023.  -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief (04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong (07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%" (01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go (15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case (28:06) Curve Ad (29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling? (36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening? (46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water" (01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate (01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%? (01:14:45) Higher For Longer! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to “pivot” and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market. Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/ For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.com This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today. ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets (11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong" (14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario" (20:57) Base Case For 2023 (24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed? (29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time (33:43) Public Ad (35:49) Controlled Explosions In China" (41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro (46:48) The Debt Supercycle (49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls (56:23) Bonds and Oil (01:04:51) Private Equity (01:09:26) Recession Type and Length (01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February. Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrow’s press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling. Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmith Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting (09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose? (18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher" (25:48) Forward Guidance (30:55) Curve Ad (32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data (37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)? (40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC (43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow? (47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT) (51:14) The Debt Ceiling (53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023. Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Outlook for 2023 (06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks (11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations (17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks (20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts (28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector (31:30) Permissionless Plug (32:33) China, Gold Miners, and Airlines (37:06) European Stocks (43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On? (45:53) The Fed (55:40) Inverted Yield Curve