The Liquidity Trap Door | Cem Karsan on Why We Are Likely in a Bubble, It Could Get Bigger, And What Pops It
Podcast: Excess ReturnsPublished On: Fri Oct 31 2025
Description: Follow us on Substackhttps://excessreturnspod.substack.comIn this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes.Main topics coveredWhy we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher firstFundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returnsOptions as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equitiesReflexivity and how option flows influence asset pricesRetail adoption of options and misperceptions in the spaceAI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loopsHistorical valuation regimes and recency bias in marketsPortfolio construction beyond the 60/40 modelTail hedging and the role of long volatilityImportance of true diversification and managing interest-rate riskTimestamps00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger 03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers 08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets 14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms 19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products 24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999 31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals 38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead 52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism 54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies 1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors
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